The page you're looking for could not be found. It may have been moved or archived, or you may have followed a broken link on another site. You may also have bookmarked a page on our old site that no longer works. The best way to find what you're looking for is to search. But I think overjoyed to finally have our occupation certificate and be living in the house." These were the words from Jo and Brendan Kilburn as their three-year epic journey from Pine Street North Lismore to Modanville is nearly at an end Nearly because there is a deck to build between the Kilburn's Pine Street house and the original house on the block plus some landscaping as they look to take advantage of a magnificent rural view (Jo and Brendan's new view in Modanville) Jo and Brendan's story was first documented on the Lismore App in June 2024 when another couple and the Kilburn's were moving their buyback properties to higher ground "We feel like we've won the lotto We were so very lucky that we were in a position to be able to do it without having to wait for the Resilient Lands (Program)," Jo said "We're still Northie's though." Jo said they were one of the last families in Pine Street that were rescued because there were people more vulnerable "It was probably chest height on me when we got rescued." After the effects of Tropical Cyclone Alfred the event reassured Jo and Brendan that they absolutely made the right decision "The relief that you don't have pack up underneath your house and hoping that the high tide doesn't come through Brendan said it had been a big three years "But particularly the last eight months getting this place up and running after the relocation Putting in every afternoon and every weekend "So there hasn't been much break or much time off "We've had the odd weekend here and there we had a list of jobs that needed to be done and the Pine Street house before it was moved While there are a few more items to tick off before their new home is complete Jo and Brendan will not have a break but the pace at which they work will change "We'll just take things a lot easier now that we've sort of crossed that hurdle (occupation certificate) We'll just push on and try and get things done but not at the pace we were working at before." Brendan joked the final two elements (landscaping and deck) will be finished in 20 years The one word to sum up the last three years When the occupation certificate was approved Brendan and their son Blake had to wait for Harry (who graduated from Trinity last year) to travel down for the weekend so the champagne could be popped and the celebrations could begin While they have friends living in North Lismore who are waiting for the North Lismore Resilient Land to come on the market The page you're looking for could not be found or you may have followed a broken link on another site You may also have bookmarked a page on our old site that no longer works The best way to find what you're looking for is to search Boutique apartment builder Abadeen Group has picked up East Melbourne’s historic Kilburn led in Victoria by ex-Melbourne footballer and CBRE sales executive agreed mid last year to pay $17 million – a tad less than guide upon being listed late 2023 A residential conversion retaining the c1878 building is planned That Melbourne company paid $13m in 2022 before winning a permit to build three townhouses around the heritage protected portions of the dwelling Covering 1375 square metres at 29-37 Simpson Street Kilburn was named by the owner and builder It was converted to Mena House Hospital by nurse Elizabeth Glover in 1900 the property was controlled by The Missionary Sisters of the Sacred Heart of Jesus it has been known as the Cliveden Hill Private Hospital and an Epworth would have seen the demolition of “add-ons” from recent decades It would also have reinstated Welsh slate roofing It recently acquired a Prahran East site for another medium density residential complex The Simpson St property is less than two kilometres from the CBD Subscribe to our newsletter at the bottom of this page A former property analyst and print journalist Marc is the publisher of realestatesource.com.au Forgot your password? You will receive mail with link to set new password Back to login This is probably not the page you’re looking for As of February 2, AI systems that represent an “unacceptable risk” became prohibited in the EU. For companies operating in the medical device sector, the EU AI Act introduces new compliance challenges and responsibilities, says Tom Hamer, European and UK patent attorney at Kilburn & Strode The outright ban now in place for “unacceptable risk” systems primarily targets non-medical applications medical AI tools such as diagnostic algorithms and robotic surgery systems instead fall under the Act’s “high-risk” category This means they must meet stringent regulatory requirements Medical AI often relies on biometric data for patient identification Companies must ensure that their use of biometric AI does not violate the bans on biometric categorization particularly if it involves sensitive characteristics that could be considered discriminatory AI-driven medical devices must be designed with clear human oversight mechanisms to comply with EU regulations Any AI tool making autonomous decisions about patient care must allow for human intervention to ensure ethical and safe decision-making Non-compliance with the AI Act could lead to market restrictions Companies developing AI-powered medical devices should conduct thorough compliance assessments to avoid disruptions in product approvals and market access It is possible that patent applications could be used to determine the risk level of an associated product and so applications should be drafted carefully to avoid triggering a higher risk classification when discussing healthcare data entry and storage and should avoid describing use cases considered to represent an “unacceptable risk” under biometric date rules where appropriate a patent application should also describe transparency and oversight mechanisms to avoid presenting an embarrassing inconsistency with other documents forming part of regulatory submissions MarketsHealthcareLife SciencesPharmaSocial CareVeterinary RankingsM&AEquity ResourcesEventsYearbook CompanyAboutContact UsSubscribeNewsletterEHIA We use cookies to improve your experience Please read our Privacy Policy or click Accept.× Please read our Privacy Policy or click Accept This event is free and open to the public Parking is available in the McKinley Parking Garage (entrance on Ashland Avenue) located immediately south of Sursa Hall metered parking ($1/hr) is available on the first floor of the garage until 7 p.m Copyright @ 2020. Powered by Hocalwire.com Please Login or Register to save the story Please Login or Register to delete saved story Police have arrested a man for drug trafficking after a search at Kilburn yesterday Western District Detectives with the assistance of patrols attended a home in Kilburn to conduct a search an amount of illicit drugs suspected to be methamphetamine A 58-year-old man from Kilburn was arrested and charged with drug trafficking he is expected to appear in the Port Adelaide Magistrates Court later today Anyone with information on the sale, supply, manufacture, or distribution of illicit drugs is urged to contact Crime Stoppers at www.crimestopperssa.com.au or on 1800 333 000 – you can remain anonymous says those who put others down over differences ‘are usually the most unhappy people out there’ Eric Kilburn Jr’s mother knew his feet were exceptionally big when she began needing to spend thousands of dollars to have his shoes specially made But it turned out they were bigger than anyone else’s in the world who was his age – and so were his hands Sixteen-year-old Eric fits his 13.5in (34cm) feet in American size 23 shoes (UK size 22) – more than double the average of adult men easily surpass the 7.14in average for his age Those measurements landed him for the first time in the book published annually by Guinness World Records. The 2025 edition released on 12 September lists him as the holder of two marks: the largest hands and the biggest feet on a living teenager. “Do not let others get you down … [because those who do] are usually the most ultimately unhappy people out there and you need to stay focused on yourself.” The teen from Goodrich, Michigan, told Guinness World Records that he grasped his uncommon size when he was in kindergarten and towered over his classmates he could no longer easily shop for shoes – or gloves And by 14 he was 6ft 10in tall – or about the height of NBA star Anthony Davis US teen Eric Kilburn has the Guinness World Records mark for largest feet and hands on a teenager His American size 23 shoes are more than double the average of adult men Photograph: John F Martin/John F Martin/Guinness World RecordsEric’s mother ultimately needed to order custom-made orthopedic shoes for him that cost more than $1,500 a pair The price tag prompted her to publicly plead for someone to make shoes that could fit Eric at an affordable price “He’s still growing,” Rebecca Kilburn said in a hometownlife.com news article that USA Today republished in March 2023 “Most kids this big and tall at this age have an endocrine disorder But while she said her son had “no health issues with exponential growth” the inability to find Eric correctly sized shoes caused him serious problems He had a half-dozen procedures on his feet to remove ingrown toenails he had the nails on his two largest toes removed permanently Rebecca’s pleas for assistance gained significant traction online, and major apparel companies like Puma as well as Under Armour stepped in to offer him the custom-made shoes and boots he needed, providing him with what he described to Guinness World Records as a welcome change in his life. “It was pretty cool to see how many people genuinely care about helping others,” Eric said. “It was a great example of the power of positive media.” Eric is part of a team, playing – perhaps unsurprisingly to sports enthusiasts – on the offensive line of his high school’s tackle football squad. He says he also enjoys playing basketball and has proven himself to be “an excellent blocker” of shots in that sport as well as of would-be tacklers in football. Read moreHe was open with Guinness World Records about what it can be like for him to be out in public He notices how strangers frequently stare in amazement whisper or directly ask him about his imposing physique The attention can occasionally be challenging but it has also made it easier in a way “to meet lots of interesting people” that he has surrounded himself with friends who make it a point to treat him like “regular Eric” – though they get a kick out of him letting them try on his immense shoes Eric applied to Guinness World Records for recognition as having the biggest hands and feet on a teen with guidance and encouragement from his mom and a family friend whose records are a constant source of global fascination bestowed upon him both titles in June 2023 Eventually, he said, Eric wants to get involved with the Big Shoe Network, a non-profit launched by his mother to aid people who struggle in finding properly fitting clothes and footwear. “I want to help people the same way I was helped when I needed it,” Eric remarked. Volume 6 - 2018 | https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00133 This article is part of the Research TopicTowards Improved Forecasting of Volcanic EruptionsView all 21 articles Volcano-tectonic seismicity and ground movement are the most reliable precursors to eruptions after extended intervals of repose as well as to flank eruptions from frequently active volcanoes Their behavior is consistent with elastic-brittle failure of the crust before a new pathway is opened to allow magma ascent A modified physical model shows that precursory time series are governed by a parent relation between faulting and elastic deformation in extension subject to independent constraints on the rate of crustal loading with time The results yield deterministic criteria that can be incorporated into existing operational procedures for evaluating the probability of crustal failure and They also suggest that the popular failure forecast method for using precursory time series to forecast eruptions is a particular form of the parent elastic-brittle model when rates of stress supply are constant and that magma transport and crustal fracturing during unrest tend toward conditions for minimizing rates of energy loss Here we argue that the precursory time series are governed by a deterministic parent relation between seismicity and deformation subject to independent constraints on how the crust is loaded with time The FFM then emerges as a particular form of the parent relation when rates of stress supply are constant it can be applied in the absence of information about previous unrest and offers the prospect of enhancing the reliability of forecasts by integrating deterministic estimates of eruption time with existing probabilistic evaluations The physical basis for the parent relation is reviewed and updated before it is used to propose new operational procedures for emergency forecasts of eruptions Resistance to magma ascent is governed (A) by magma rheology at open volcanoes that maintain a connection between their feeding body and the surface but by the strength of the crust at closed volcanoes when a new pathway (arrows) must be formed before (B) a flank eruption (even when an open conduit is also available) and (C) eruptions after an extended interval of repose He argued that restricted ranges of precursory behavior are driven by a positive feedback between the rate (dΩ/dt) and acceleration (d2Ω/dt2) of a precursory signal Ω with time: but not the contemporaneous rate of deformation and so describes only part of the precursory processes that lead to eruption The three datasets suggest that the mean VT trends evolved with time from quasi-elastic (yellow) through steady inelastic (orange) to accelerating inelastic (magenta); dashed portions of the curve are qualitative interpolations The eruption occurred almost immediately after the end of the quasi-elastic regime when t/23.3 ≈ 4 ought not to be a surprising feature of accelerating rock failure Most of the detected VT events have magnitudes of 0–2 and are triggered by the movement of faults ∼10-2–10-1 km across or ∼0.1–10% the size of deforming crust VT events and ground deformation can thus be viewed as proxies for the inelastic and total deformation of a crust that contains a dispersed population of small faults (1) can be incorporated into a general model by recognizing that deformation and VT events are mutually dependent and that their time series are the result of a parent relation between inelastic and total deformation constrained by specified changes with time in loading the crust The parent relation describes the potential for rock to fail when supplied with a mean differential stress Ssup a proportion ΔS is used elastically to deform atomic bonds Typical magnitude ranges for VT events were 0.5–2.0 for Rabaul 1.0–2.5 for El Hierro and 1.5–4.0 for Mauna Ulu All three VT-deformation trends show the expected evolution from quasi-elastic to inelastic behavior how VT event rate and deformation rate vary with time Such similarity is compelling evidence that elastic-brittle failure of the crust determines the pattern of seismic and deformation precursors to eruptions at closed volcanoes Bulk failure begins when fracture growth becomes self-perpetuating within part of the stressed crust. It may occur when the failure stress, SF, is first achieved, or after an extended interval of inelastic deformation under a stress maintained at SF, during which the externally supplied stress replaces the stress lost by fracturing and fault movement, so resembling rock creep (Figure 4) Applying well-known methods from classical statistical mechanics (Reif, 1985; Ruhla, 1992; Guénault, 1995), the magnitudes of local stresses are expected to follow a Boltzmann distribution about the bulk value, for which inelastic deformation 𝜀in increases with supplied stress Ssup as (Kilburn, 2003, 2012): where the activation stress Sact is the additional stress required to initiate bulk failure, the characteristic stress Sch is the atomic free energy per volume available for deformation, (d𝜀in/dSsup)a is the rate at which natural fluctuations in atomic configuration attempt to initiate failure, and exp (-Sact/Sch) measures the probability that an attempt is successful (Reif, 1985; Ruhla, 1992; Guénault, 1995) The activation stress is SF-S, the difference between the failure and applied differential stresses. In the quasi-elastic regime, it decreases to zero as SF is approached and all local attempts to fracture are successful [d𝜀in/dSsup = (d𝜀in/dSsup)a]. Fracturing continues to accelerate in the inelastic regime, owing to the local redistribution of stress around fractures (Lawn, 1993; Valkó and Economides, 1995) The redistribution concentrates stress at fracture tips and as long as the bulk stress is maintained at SF increases the stress remaining after each increment of growth A decreasing proportion of Ssup is required to continue fracture growth so that the interval between growth steps persistently decreases leading to runaway growth when the interval becomes infinitesimally small Setting 𝜀in proportional to the number N of VT events Equations (4 and 5) are the basic expressions for deriving relations between VT event rate and both deformation and time (3) suggests that the probability of bulk failure is proportional to exp [(S-SF)/Sch] and to exp (ΔSR/Sch) in the quasi-elastic and inelastic regimes do not represent the same type of probability The quasi-elastic regime describes conditions before the start of bulk failure so that exp [(S-SF)/Sch] measures the probability that bulk failure will begin under an applied differential stress S describes when the failure process will be completed so that exp (ΔSR/Sch) measures the probability that failure will occur within a given time interval How much of the total free energy is utilized determines the characteristic stress Failure in compression is limited by shearing between atoms but in tension by the tensile failure of bonds Shearing requires the integrated deformation of all bonds and so utilizes the full amount of S∗ requires deformation only among bonds in a particular direction and so utilizes a fraction of S∗; the amount utilized in tension defines the rock’s tensile strength The condition that Sch = S∗ in compression has been verified against laboratory experiments (Kilburn, 2012). It was also applied to VT precursors of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, in the Philippines, and 1995 eruption of Soufriere Hills, on Montserrat (Kilburn, 2003) implying the unlikely scenario of eruptions through crust in compression Extensional stresses are instead anticipated in crust being deformed by a pressurizing magma body and the precursory sequences at Pinatubo and Soufriere Hills can be explained more simply by equating Sch instead with the tensile strength Regimes for elastic-brittle precursors to eruption Most of the values for T/tch lie between 2 and 4 (lower and upper dashed lines) In the inelastic regime, a constant rate of stress supply generates hyperbolic increases in VT and deformation rates with time [Table 1; Eq (T9)]. After a time τ, the rates tend to an infinite value, which is taken to be the mathematical equivalent of continuous fracture coalescence and successful bulk failure (Voight, 1988; Kilburn, 2003); τ therefore defines the duration of accelerating inelastic deformation which is analogous to tertiary brittle creep under a constant external stress where the subscript 0,IN denotes values at the start of the inelastic regime In Eq. (7), the duration of inelastic acceleration is given by τ = [γ∗(dNp/dt)]-1 [so when (t-t0,IN) = τ, the inverse-VT rate tends to zero and the VT rate tends to infinite values]. At andesitic strato-volcanoes, observed values of dNp/dt are ∼10 events per day, which, with typical values of γ∗, give the observed durations on the order of 10 days (Kilburn, 2003) if about 30–50% of the total time is needed to confirm a hyperbolic increase in rate realistic warning times at such volcanoes are on the order of days Equations (4 and 5) quantitatively capture the essential features of VT-deformation trends before eruptions Their good agreement with field data confirms the mutual dependence of VT and deformation precursors and suggests that (a) precursory deformation evolves from quasi-elastic to inelastic (b) when the rate of stress supply is constant the increase in VT event rate with time changes from exponential (quasi-elastic behavior) to hyperbolic (inelastic behavior) and (c) precursory behavior can be interpreted in terms of elastic-brittle deformation without the need to invoke additional rheological responses in the crust (such as plastic flow); this does not preclude the operation of additional processes only that they need not be invoked unless field data indicate otherwise Equations (4 and 5) yield time series (Eqs which has the form of Voight’s original FFM Relation [Eq The exponential and hyperbolic VT rates coincide with Voight’s relation for α = 1 and 2 but it has yet to be confirmed whether intermediate values of α have any physical meaning it is possible that intermediate values are artifacts from seeking best-fit single trends to partial data sets that extend across the quasi-elastic and inelastic regimes (1) also shows that the term A in Voight’s FFM Relation is not a constant but changes from 1/tch for α = 1 to γ∗ for α = 2; in other words 1/A is a characteristic timescale when α = 1 but a characteristic number of VT events when α = 2 the deformation rate remains constant while the VT event rate increases and so Voight’s relation is not equally applicable to the two precursory signals The peak rates in the Rabaul sequence have been associated with the arrival of magma at a depth of about 2 km, possibly intruding into an existing magma chamber (McKee et al., 1984). The final rates have instead been associated with segments of the ring fault being torn open to allow magma to erupt (Robertson and Kilburn, 2016) The full sequence thus represents the caldera being stretched to breaking point under a variable rate of increasing magmatic pressure A constant rate of stress supply was established during the final 2 years of deformation when the crust had already entered the inelastic regime so promoting the hyperbolic increase in rates with time (described by the Voight’s relation with α = 2) rates of stress supply were not constant for the first 20 years of unrest during which time Voight’s relation could not be used to describe the precursory time series By describing common trends among VT and deformation precursors Eqs (4 and 5) provide a starting point also for identifying when the model cannot be applied without adjusting its underlying assumptions the model assumes that the crust’s mean behavior follows that of an elastic medium containing a dispersed population of small faults It does not explicitly accommodate conditions when bulk deformation is controlled by movements of faults with lengths similar to that of the crust being deformed Slip along such faults would favor the occurrence of a small number of large-magnitude VT earthquakes instead of a large number of small VT events; as a result VT trends may be dominated by only a few earthquakes whose total number is too small to yield repeatable mean behavior the large ring faults appear to have constrained the size and geometry of the crust being deformed rather than to have contributed directly to rates of VT seismicity It may also begin at a more distant location where stresses are concentrated (e.g. the tips of a major fault) or where the crust is locally weak (e.g. in which case the propagating fracture must additionally extend to the magma body itself The probability of eruption can thus be expressed more generally as the product of the probability of bulk failure the probability that failure breaches a magma body and the probability that magma can erupt through the new breach The elastic-brittle model addresses only the first of these and so is a necessary but insufficient condition for guaranteeing an eruption Future models that couple crustal stresses with magmatic processes promise to yield new insights for refining and enhancing forecasting procedures The elastic-brittle model is inherently scale-independent because it expresses rates of VT seismicity and deformation in terms of the ratio of mean applied differential stress to characteristic stress Applied stress measures changes in the free energy per volume available for atoms to do work (in this case to deform and break bonds); the characteristic stress measures the total free energy per volume already available for a specific type of deformation (e.g. tension or compression) before a differential stress is applied if Δe is the change in free energy and e′ the free energy available it refers to the size of rock being deformed the same V is used to calculate both stresses from their respective energy terms so that S/Sch always measures the ratio of change in free energy to the reference free energy available even though the values of individual stress terms may change with scale and amount of fracturing they have shown that increases in seismic event rate with time in the inelastic regime are expected to follow a power-law trend of the form: The similarity of Eqs (7) and (9) suggests agreement between the different modeling strategies Their future integration may thus yield enhanced procedures for general forecasts of bulk failure In addition to demonstrating the elastic-brittle features of unrest precursory time series indicate preferred energy states in magmatic systems before eruption Common quasi-elastic behavior suggests a preference for steady rates of deformation which are a natural consequence of minimizing rates of energy dissipation Primary controls on energy dissipation are VT seismicity in the crust and frictional resistance during the transport of magma the VT event rate increases exponentially with time and so is not an obvious minimizing factor is favored by a constant rate of pressurization in the magmatic source and this is promoted by a constant flux of magma from depth Approximately steady deformation rates may thus reflect a preference to minimize rates of energy loss during magma transport A second remarkable feature is the agreement between theory and observed inverse-VT rate gradients in the inelastic regime The model VT expressions implicitly assume that the number of detected events is similar to the number of essential events for bulk failure fault movement may be triggered in parts of the crust that do not directly affect the volume that will ultimately fail so that the number of detected events is greater than the essential number The difference will not affect expressions for VT events in the quasi-elastic regime because it changes only pre-exponential terms and so cancels from both sides of the relevant equations so that the inverse-rate field gradient is given by γ∗Nes/N - that is the model gradient multiplied by the ratio of the number of essential (Nes) to detected (N) VT events - which is ≤γ∗ the observed gradients are within the expected theoretical range suggesting that the proportion of non-essential VT events is small Although such a condition may not be universal the fact that it appears for these two examples implies that precursory deformation may tend to involve the minimum amount of crust possible for initiating bulk failure which again indicates a preference for minimizing energy loss The progression from quasi-elastic to inelastic behavior yields objective pre-eruptive criteria that complement the existing empirical evaluations. This is especially important at volcanoes for which no data are available from previous unrest. An example of how additional procedures may be applied is shown in Figure 9 and summarized below It is based on the simplest conditions for a constant rate of stress supply and no steady VT rate between quasi-elastic and inelastic regimes Flow-chart showing an example the proposed operational procedure for applying the elastic-brittle model to VT and deformation signals of unrest It assumes a transition from exponential to hyperbolic VT event rates after an amount of ground movement 4hch and Quasi-elastic behavior will show an exponential increase in VT number with ground movement and yield a characteristic movement VT events and deformation will follow distinctly different time series the deformation rate is constant and the VT rate will increase exponentially with time yielding the characteristic timescale tch; following the VT rate here is crucial because a constant deformation rate on its own may erroneously be interpreted as a sign of dynamic stability Inelastic behavior will show a constant increase in VT number with ground movement and VT event rate maxima and deformation rate will both increase hyperbolically with time (equivalent to linear decreases with time in inverse event rate for VT minima and inverse deformation rate) the transition to inelastic behavior is expected when the total amount of ground movement is between 2λch and 4λch and after corresponding times of 2tch and 4tch the magnitudes of the inverse-rate gradients will be in the range 10-3-10-2 for VT minima Larger gradients may indicate that the linear trends are spurious Extrapolating the trends to zero inverse-rate (i.e. infinite rate) provides the preferred time τ for bulk failure to be completed observations must cover a minimum range of values to confirm that a trend is not spurious the minimum range is one characteristic interval (λch or tch) because shorter observations may yield trends statistically indistinguishable from linear; at least one quarter of a trend’s total duration must therefore be used to identify its existence the smallest range is a decrease in inverse-rate minima by a factor of two (hence at least half of a trend’s total duration) before a linear trend can be proposed Under the ideal conditions when unrest data follow a complete sequence from lithostatic equilibrium (without a differential stress) to bulk failure the elastic-brittle model provides estimates of the maximum ground movement (2λch–4λch) before the emergence of inelastic deformation and the onset of bulk failure (and For a continuous acceleration in VT rate across regimes (without at intervening interval at steady rate) bulk failure is expected after an additional time τ at most The elastic-brittle trends can be transformed into probabilities of bulk failure and levels of alert The example here assumes a steady rate of stress supply and an immediate transition from exponential to hyperbolic VT event rates after a time 4tch Inverse trends are plotted because changes from an exponential to a linear decrease is easier to visualize that a change from exponential to hyperbolic increase The transition from quasi-elastic to inelastic regime marks a step increase in alert level Each level may itself consist of gradational changes The probability being quantified changes from the probability that bulk failure begins in the quasi-elastic regime to the probability that failure will be complete before the time interval τ in the inelastic regime At volcanoes reawakening after long repose emergency measurements are often gathered systematically a significant time after the start of unrest so that the transition from quasi-elastic to elastic behavior will occur sooner than the ideal maximum time measurements may become available only when the crust is already in the inelastic regime The good agreement between field observation and parent model for changes in seismicity with deformation at closed volcanoes suggests that their behavior before eruptions is normally governed by the stretching of elastic-brittle crust Immediate implications are that there is no starting requirement to invoke deformation mechanisms other than elastic-brittle and that VT signals reflect how a population of small faults responds to changes in stress They also provide new criteria to be tested for integrating deterministic physical constraints into probabilistic forecasts of eruption is still not a complete description of pre-eruptive conditions at closed volcanoes It identifies conditions for bulk failure in the crust although necessary to open a new pathway for magma ascent do not guarantee that magma will reach the surface It also focuses on conditions that favor continued acceleration in VT seismicity with time without significant intervals of steady VT rate The parent model thus provides a starting point for identifying additional precursory trends and pre-eruptive criteria Outstanding goals include identifying whether precursory signals can distinguish between pre-eruptive and non-eruptive outcomes; whether VT rates will accelerate to bulk failure without an interval of steady behavior; and whether final VT accelerations are inevitable a significant time before eruption Achieving these goals will provide new constraints for coupling changes in crustal stresses with specific magmatic processes and yield greater insights for refining and enhancing current forecasting procedures CK developed the elastic-brittle model for precursors to eruption and prepared the manuscript The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest Careful reviews by Jérémie Vasseur Raffaello Cioni and Valerio Acocella clarified and improved the original manuscript whose support and advice during the emergency at Soufriere Hills in 1996 laid the foundations for the present work An overview of recent (1988-2014) caldera unrest: knowledge and perspectives CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar Seismic precursory patterns before a cliff collapse and critical point phenomena CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar Stress corrosion theory of crack propagation with applications to geophysics CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar “Structured elicitation of expert judgement for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions,” in Statistics in Volcanology Google Scholar Subcritical crack growth in geological materials Precursors to dyke-fed eruptions at basaltic volcanoes: insights from the spatiotemporal patterns of volcano-tectonic seismicity at Kilauea volcano Challenges for forecasting based on accelerating rates of earthquakes at volcanoes and laboratory analogues Convergence of the frequency-size distribution of global earthquakes CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar “Ground deformation at Campi Flegrei Italy: implications for hazard assessment,” in Mechanisms of Activity and Unrest at Large Calderas Kilburn (London: Geological Society of London) Google Scholar intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar Real-time eruption forecasting using the material Failure Forecast Method with a Bayesian approach The Initiation and Growth of Explosion in Liquids and Solids Google Scholar Statistical analysis of daily seismic event rate as a precursor to volcanic eruptions CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar Seismicity rate before eruptions on Piton de la Fournaise volcano: implications for eruption dynamics CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar A materials failure relation of accelerating creep as empirical description of damage accumulation CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar Seismological aspects of the 1989-1990 eruption at Redoubt volcano Alaska: the materials failure forecast method (FFM) with RSAM and SSAM seismic data Graphical and PC-software analysis of volcano eruption precursors according to the Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) “Real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) and seismic spectral amplitude measurement (SSAM) analyses with the Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) June 1991 explosive eruption at Mount Pinatubo,” in Fire and Mud: Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinatubo Fault tip displacement gradients and process zone dimensions CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar De la Cruz-Reyna A model to describe precursory material-failure phenomena: applications to short-term forecasting at Colima volcano CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar Magma transfer at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) before the 1538 AD eruption Google Scholar Frank-Kamenetskii Diffusion and Heat Transfer in Chemical Kinetics Google Scholar gas emission and deformation from 18 July to 25 September 1995 during the initial phreatic phase of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano Failure as a critical phenomenon in a progressive damage model CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar Predictability of volcano eruption: lessons from a basaltic effusive volcano CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar The phenomenon of rupture and flow in solids CrossRef Full Text | Google Scholar Thermal feedback in liquid flow; 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(MyKeeneNow) A high-stakes multi-agency rescue effort unfolded on Mount Kilburn Tuesday evening after an 18-year-old hiker from Bellows Falls fell approximately 30 feet from a ledge near the Table Rock Overlook.adButlerLazyLoad("777557230597148862",100,["734403","734403","734403"],"177038"); was injured and stranded on a steep cliffside when emergency responders received the alert around 6:20 p.m Salter-Dimma’s father initially reported the fall and the teenager was briefly able to call 911 himself before his phone died—though not before GPS data pinpointed his approximate location Responders faced difficult terrain and fading daylight as they launched a full-scale rescue operation A DHART helicopter and drone surveillance from Rockingham Recon Aerial Services were dispatched to help locate the injured hiker unstable slopes complicated access on foot a Fish and Game Conservation Officer had reached Salter-Dimma by climbing down treacherous cliffs providing first aid and assessing the scene The situation prompted a rare helicopter hoist rescue request to the New Hampshire Army National Guard which was already in the area conducting training exercises.adButlerLazyLoad("3006201263534784448",100,["734403","734403","734403"],"177038"); members of the Upper Valley Wilderness Response Team (UVWRT)—familiar with the rocky terrain due to recreational climbing—navigated a trail from the base of the mountain to assist with the ground evacuation They arrived just as the National Guard helicopter hovered overhead Dense tree cover forced rescuers to carry Salter-Dimma about 150 feet to a clearing where the helicopter could safely lift him out He was flown to Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center around 10:45 p.m Responding agencies included multiple fire departments from both sides of the Connecticut River and military air support—a testament to the severity and complexity of the mission.adButlerLazyLoad("852000983346903669",100,["734403","734403","734403"],"177038"); New Hampshire Fish and Game officials are using the incident as a reminder for hikers to always be prepared, even on short trips. They recommend carrying a full set of essentials, including navigation tools, extra food and clothing, and emergency supplies. More safety information is available at hikesafe.com Nicole Colson is the editor-in-chief of MyKeeneNow Eric Gagne joins My Keene Now & Next to preview Keene’s Thing in the Spring festival Keene City Council approves traffic changes and hears updates on downtown projects and the 2025-26 budget at May 1 meeting A Putney man was hospitalized with non-life-threatening injuries after being hit by a car during a Brattleboro police traffic stop investigation Jeanne Shaheen visits NH Ball Bearings on tariffs’ impact and celebrates Newport’s new LaValley Community Center built with federal funding Be sure you have your GPS enabled and try again.