former French foreign minister and former advisor to President François Mitterrand
has published a "New Dictionary of Geopolitics" to try to "decipher the mess we are in"
and in particular Trump's strategy towards Ukraine
In an interview with the French daily Le Figaro on the occasion of the book's release
he asks more questions than he offers answers
such as: Should Europeans let Trump determine long-term relations with Russia
LE FIGARO: You are publishing a "new" Dictionary of Geopolitics..
HUBER VEDRIN: I finished revising it after Trump's re-election and added 20 new articles
The original idea remains the same - a return to history and a long-term perspective
even hysterical nature of our world means that we no longer understand anything about it
I hope that my book will help to better decipher the mess we are immersed in
LE FIGARO: There is no chapter on "Zelensky"
Don't you consider him a representative of the free world
a courageous president with Churchillian overtones
VEDRIN: The rhetoric of the 1930s or 1950s does not allow us to understand the modern world
In the article "Ukraine" I talk about Zelensky's courage
I suggested giving him the award for courage and Donald Trump the award for indignity
But that doesn't change the fact that Trump
who is obsessed with China and for whom the Ukraine problem is secondary
And that there will be a rare earths deal that will make the US interested in the future of Ukraine
VEDRIN: Americans and Europeans are actually first cousins
The 20th century was left in parentheses because the US was forced
Europeans have been protected by the Americans
which has made it possible to talk about a "West"
It was more of a patron-mentee relationship than between equal allies
Putin has certainly revived the spirit of defense in Europe
And we no longer share the same values (see Vance's heretical speech in Munich)
The most destabilized are the Europeans who believed in happy globalization
in the irreversible practice of diplomatic multilateralism and in another trend - American progressivism
But as long as the 1949 treaty and NATO still exist
if inflation rises again due to the trade war; or when he realizes that the US still needs a lot of immigrants
but much better selected ones; or when he realizes that China will take the lead in the green technologies of the future
where he is counting on Saudi Arabia to lower the price of oil and renew the Abraham Accords
Trump will not be able to make Riyadh swallow the ethnic cleansing of Gaza
We should expect unexpected turns of events
LE FIGARO: Will he be able to make progress on the Ukraine-Russia issue
much to our horror and that of the Ukrainians
The question is how to ensure the ceasefire that will follow the cessation of fighting
As for the relationship between the United States and Russia
the same vision as that of the great American realists who negotiated the disarmament agreements with the USSR
but we do not know how far he will be willing and able to go
nor how Putin will try to exploit this situation
Should Europeans let Trump determine long-term relations with Russia
LE FIGARO: What do you think should be done in Ukraine
VEDRIN: Everything possible to ensure that the ceasefire is as harmless as possible for Ukraine; that the security of its territory (excluding Crimea and Donbas) is guaranteed in a reliable and lasting way
The answers to these various questions will depend either on the European Union as a whole (the prospect of gradual accession according to the idea of MP Jean-Louis Bourlanges)
or on the few European countries of the Alliance with armies
LE FIGARO: Are Europeans capable of uniting for Ukraine and for European security and defense
VEDRIN: Several European leaders have stated that they are ready to send troops to Ukraine to guarantee a possible ceasefire
The Russians have already rejected the presence of soldiers from NATO countries
But Trump may need European countries to send troops
in order to prevent his withdrawal from Ukraine from becoming a total fiasco for him
So the outcome will partly depend on the Trump-Putin and Europe-Trump discussion
Then what would be the mandate of these troops
It will depend on what Trump gets or doesn’t get from Russia in the ceasefire agreement
Then other questions will arise: where will these troops be stationed (not necessarily on the ground)
if Trump forces the Europeans in the Alliance to take up this issue
which they have methodically rejected for 80 years
then it will be necessary to reach an agreement between France
on the following questions: What forces do we put in this pillar
What type of general staff will exercise military command
And what political power will command this headquarters
succumb to the temptation of nuclear protection
VEDRIN: Trump is even more opposed to Ukraine joining NATO than Biden
A nuclear guarantee granted to Ukraine outside NATO would amount to the same thing
Nuclear deterrence must be embodied in a single means of deterrence
President Macron regularly reminds us of this
And there is a completely different debate on the level of protection
Britain will not be able to join this discussion because its nuclear weapons are under a double lock with the United States
especially after the unprecedented statements of the potential new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Nuclear weapons protect the national sanctities and vital interests of the country
which are deliberately never specified (except in vague phrases about the European dimension of French deterrence)
If this strategic revolution were to be carried out
which country or which interests would be covered by this protection
Will the French take this risk of being on the front line
will the potential aggressor be convinced and accordingly dissuaded
I think that the ambiguity about vital interests remains more of a deterrent than their clarification
LE FIGARO: Why does Europe so lack leaders of the rank of Churchill
VEDRIN: We cannot wish for a new world war to give birth to Churchills
surveillance and harassment on social networks are constant
there is a risk that followers will outnumber leaders
But remember that Churchill was considered finished before he was summoned by King George V
and Truman was considered a simple store owner in Kansas City
take the historic decisions of the post-war period (the "Marshall" Plan
Let's not be too quick to judge - the coming weeks will be truly historic
LE FIGARO: Do you think the EU could fall apart
I think that if Putin wanted to attack NATO
I strongly support the idea of creating in Europe a kind of military "barb"
led by the European pole that I spoke about
it is absolutely necessary for the European Union (where it is competent) to resist Trump's attacks until the contradictions in its system force it to correct its positions
It must be able to maintain its regulatory capacity if it implements its brand new anti-bureaucratic orientation and continues the ecological transition
Which implies opposing Trump or bypassing him (in alliance with the Chinese)
but above all convincing the European population
VEDRIN: I do not see the spiral of events that would lead to a general war
But let's not forget that we have experienced several decades of threats of destruction between the East and the West
and that the Cold War never turned into a hot one
before rethinking the global system for managing all this (including relations with the "global South"
while avoiding a repetition of the catastrophic mistakes of the United States towards the Russia of Yeltsin
in the ten to fifteen years after the end of the USSR)
for European leaders to wring from Trump real guarantees for the continuation of the ceasefire in Ukraine and to form
restoring the deterrent balance of power in Europe
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By Blair AlleyBlair Alley is the Content Director for TransWorld SKATEboarding
CEO and team principal of Oracle Red Bull Racing
commented after the Miami Grand Prix: "We gave it everything today but well done to McLaren
they were in a different league so P4 and a double points finish is as good as we could get from an often chaotic Miami GP
Max put up a staunch defence of his lead and position in the opening stint
but the VSC gave others the opportunity to capitalise on Max’s earlier stop and ultimately cost him a podium finish
P10 for Yuki who did well to hold onto his point in the end
The race showed that we still have a lot of work to do on the car to find that ultimate race pace
We’ll take our learnings back to Milton Keynes and come back with everything we have for our 400th race in Imola in a couple of weeks time."
Published on 05 May 2025 by Coen Versteeg
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