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“You sure you don’t want a Honda?” Kevin asked as we looked at the well worn green Russian-made Minsk motorcycle that his mechanic had just delivered
Being both stubborn and lacking much in the way of common sense I said
some racks and tools in case she breaks down.”
I came to Southeast Asia to meet people and explore
I’ve been working on a project called “The Bunny Teeth Movement.” The idea came about from a visit to Japan
suggested that I travel the world handing out bunny teeth
She explained that the world is too serious
and that bunny teeth could lighten the mood
I’m not suggesting that bunny teeth are the be-all/end-all for world peace
but a smile is a positive in a world full of negatives
and was excited to both explore and hand out bunny teeth
and the bike was now equipped with all the tools I might need
more spare parts would have been a good idea
The plan was to leave the next morning with a couple guys that had bought Hondas from Kevin: Wes was from Canada
They had been traveling around Southeast Asia for a couple months
and I found them valuable in my assimilation of the region
the home of the world’s largest Jesus statue
The journey to Vung Tau was nerve racking and thrilling at the same time
Riding a motorcycle in Vietnam is as mental as it is physical; someone or something is constantly trying to run you over or have you run it over
busses and chickens all compete for a little bit of asphalt; usually
Shane and Wes were on a deadline to make it to Hanoi
and I was planning on seeing a bit of the country along the way
I drove towards Dalat and they headed to Nha Trang
Lucy had been acting a bit temperamental the previous day
so after taking her to a mechanic and welder for a little repair
I left for what should have been a five or six hour ride to Dalat
The morning started early and for the first time in a while it was raining some
which would take me from the coast up into the mountains
Lucy sputtered a couple times and then simply stopped
Highway 27 between Dalat and Buon Ma Thuot
Pavement after a large and long gravel road
I spent an hour going through my checklist of possible causes—all the while being watched by Vietnamese children who emerged from the jungle
a gentleman rode up on a scooter and kindly pushed Lucy and me to the next little village—Gia Bac
Thang owned the feed/convenience store and was also the town mechanic
We ended up spending three days and two nights working on Lucy before Thang was able to get spark
A lot of time was spent on the porch drinking coffee and being the town curiosity
Perhaps a Honda would have effortlessly taken me to Dalat
and three days in a remote Vietnamese village was that kind of experience
Dalat is a beautiful hill town famous as a honeymoon destination and for its coffee plantations
Down the road there I needed yet another Minsk mechanic
who made a few more repairs while I handed out bunny teeth
Feeling secure that I would have spark for at least a couple days
I headed north skirting the Cambodian border
I learned a couple things about Vietnamese mechanics: They’re capable of doing almost anything on a motorcycle with a pair of pliers
and the repairs are just enough to get you to the next mechanic
it took four mechanics in four different towns to get my rear wheel bearings replaced
I’d heard of a town called Kham Duc that supposedly was the best place in Vietnam for Minsk parts—a hill town that still used Minsk motorcycles for logging
hungry and very wet after being caught in a five-hour downpour
Kham Duc was different; something didn’t feel right
The smiles I’d received throughout my trip so far had been replaced by scowls
I ended up spending several hours having my clutch disks and a seal replaced—the whole time cold and wet
with various people pointing and laughing at me
After a day of being soaking wet I was desperate to find a place to spend the night out of the weather
I finally found a compassionate old man who rented rooms to loggers
He led me to a little shack with a bed—where I was just happy to be out of the rain
I later learned that Kham Duc had been very heavily bombed during the war—no wonder they didn’t like me
I ended up spending a memorable Christmas at a hostel called the Phong Nha Farmstay
The Farmstay was run by an Australian and his Vietnamese wife—who were off to Australia for the holidays
Christmas morning was spent walking around the local village while Dave English
In the afternoon I went for a nice ride through the countryside and explored the caves at Phong Nha
and met some really great fellow travelers
From Hanoi it was off to Halong Bay to catch a couple ferries to Cat Ba Island
Halong Bay is famous for its limestone karst formations
and the cruise boats that take tourists for multiple day trips through the islands
it was about a 15-mile ride from the ferry terminal to the town center
Cat Ba town looks like it was built in 1970 and hasn’t been remodeled since
Its main industries are fishing and tourism
it was time to catch another ferry to Halong City
At the north ferry terminal are Chinese that conduct day tours
Their tour operators told me that the ferry had already left and that the next one wouldn’t arrive for another 10 hours
I was on the ferry waving as we passed the tour hustlers’ dock
Lucy and I headed to a town in the hills of Northern Vietnam called Lang Son
My hands were so cold the front desk girl had to unhook my luggage straps for me
I was the only guest in the five-story hotel—apparently
January is not the best time to visit northern Vietnam
From Lang Son I followed Ql-4 to the town of Cao Bang
It was a relatively short ride of 100 miles
Much of it consisted of foot-deep slippery mud
but what should have been a four-hour ride turned into a solid eight hours
by the time I arrived in Cao Bang I was covered in mud
The attendant at the front desk showed me to a room under construction and allowed me to hose myself off before checking in
and I found the people to be some of the friendliest in Vietnam
The countryside is very beautiful and full of terraced farm plots
One day I rode out into the country and came across some very remote villages near the Chinese border
I’m sure that most of these people had never seen a Westerner
so when I stopped for a drink I was quite the curiosity
The north was very cold and because the weather was turning even worse
I booked a train back to Saigon where I met a friend from Hanoi and traveled down through the Mekong Delta
Life in the Mekong revolves around the water
crossing bridges and shopping on floating markets
so after a week with a traveling companion
it was time for Lucy and me to cross into Cambodia and continue on our own journey
but if Kevin ever asks you if you want a Honda
Cliff Danger is an adventurer and photographer who loves motorcycles and travel
please stop and say hello—they’ll have a set of Bunny Teeth for you
Swapping the Dutch lowlands for a year in the mountains of Colorado seemed exciting enough—but I wanted more
The route from Washington all the way to California is home to beautiful fairytale forests
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Ukraine in the past has described the Minsk agreements as a “trap” for the country
which had allowed Moscow to prepare for the 2022 full-scale invasion
although it Incorporates the expertise of the author/producer and may offer interpretations and conclusions
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The Africa programme analyses the geopolitics of the Africa-Europe relationship
the programme delves into relations between the African Union and the European Union to find creative foreign policy tools and strategies
It also focuses on two regions that are particularly relevant for Europe: the Horn of Africa and the Sahel
The Asia programme seeks to help Europe recalibrate its relationship with China and its Asian partners
The programme analyses China’s domestic situation
It also places a renewed emphasis on fostering Europe’s relationships with the Indo-Pacific
The European Power programme is focused on helping Europeans develop sustainable policy solutions to the issues affecting the European Union’s capacity to act with unity on the global scene
This includes analysing the path forward for enlargement
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The programme works with European and regional governments
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The programme also supports EU decision-makers work on a unified and coherent policy to address the challenges resulting from Russia’s full scale-invasion of Ukraine
After claiming 86.7% of the vote in unfree elections not recognised by the EU, President Aleksandr Lukashenka has once again extended his reign in Belarus. Local human rights advocates report major procedure violations during the campaign
including the obstruction of independent observers
and widespread intimidation of opposition candidates and activists
the authoritarian ruler continues to promote himself as a guarantor of stability at home
Now, Lukashenka appears to be laying the groundwork to mend relations with the West via United States president Donald Trump, with whom Lukashenka has often expressed sympathy. The release of political prisoners throughout 2024 suggests Lukashenka is preparing for such a rapprochement – and Trump’s transactional style of foreign policy might just make that possible
As the American president works on a deal for a Ukraine ceasefire, Lukashenka could present Belarus as a neutral venue for discussions, reminiscent of the framework of the Minsk Agreements
While Ukraine and Europe will categorically reject this
the Belarusian leader could also offer limited gestures
such as reducing direct Belarusian military involvement in Russia’s war efforts
Lukashenka’s “pendulum” strategy of balancing between Russia and the West to extract economic and political concessions from both has long been his playbook
And although Belarus has grown more dependent on Moscow—and distant from the West—since the 2020 protests and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
Trump’s return to office changes this calculation
Global anticipation over a potential Russia-Ukraine deal could overshadow the struggle of Belarusian civil society for democracy
While former US president Joe Biden adopted a strategy of maximum pressure and isolation toward Belarus
Trump is unlikely to prioritise human rights concerns or demand meaningful concessions
ultimately playing into Lukashenka’s interests
Should the US president choose to lift sanctions on Belarus as part of a wider US-Russia deal
it would significantly undermine EU efforts to exert pressure on Lukashenka’s regime
Trump’s drastic freeze on international aid and the uncertain future of USAID has placed Belarusian independent media—most of which operates from abroad—in a precarious situation
these outlets are now struggling to survive
Resistance from EU member states to pledge recognition of the document have cast further doubt on the initiative’s feasibility
there is little hope for change: repression has reached extreme levels
instilling fear in every aspect of society and leaving minimal space for dissent
The EU should continue its tough stance toward the dictatorship and its self-proclaimed president
including making it clear that the release of political prisoners will not be enough to restore relations
It should recognise the potential consequences of a Trump-Lukashenka rapprochement and take proactive measures
Strengthening ties with exiled Belarusian civil society is essential to counter any diplomatic shifts that might favour Lukashenka
Should the US disengage from supporting Belarusian democratic movements
Poland and the Baltic states should intensify their efforts to fill the void by ensuring sustained humanitarian aid
facilitating legal protections for Belarusian exiles
and bolstering independent Belarusian media operating from abroad
While Poland has vigorously advocated for sanctions and support programs for Belarusian exiles
their situation in Lithuania has deteriorated lately
with many facing denials of visas and extensions of residence permits
or being deemed “national security risks”
Urgent measures should be taken to resolve this
should take a leading role in sustaining support for Belarusian democratic forces and leverage its diplomatic influence to keep Belarus on the EU’s foreign policy agenda
the EU should actively engage with the US Congress
and transatlantic institutions to ensure Belarus remains a priority in US foreign policy
This includes leveraging joint EU-US sanctions coordination and highlighting the strategic risks of allowing Lukashenka to rebrand himself as a legitimate actor
European leaders should emphasise to the Trump administration that appeasing Lukashenka strengthens Putin’s influence
contradicting broader US interests in limiting Russian expansionism
the EU must shore up its independent Belarus strategy by engaging more deeply with exiled Belarusian political actors and implementing targeted economic support mechanisms
This could include direct financial assistance for independent Belarusian media
scholarships and employment programs for exiles
and expanding EU sanctions on Belarusian state enterprises and oligarchs linked to Lukashenka’s regime
the EU must remain proactive in preventing Lukashenka from exploiting potential openings
A clear approach will be crucial in ensuring that Belarus remains on the international agenda and that its democratic forces are not abandoned
This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union
The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union
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These actions heighten the risk of military clashes
including those involving nuclear powers and weapons of mass destruction
Second, the crisis in Ukraine, along with tensions in the South Caucasus, Black Sea, Baltic, and Arctic regions, is being used to justify perceived threats from NATO countries and increase military spending, benefiting the United States and its allies (Soyuz.by
Finally, in the event of sanctions imposed by third countries against the Union State or its members, either party has the right to request support and joint countermeasures (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
The document signed by Minsk and Moscow creates all formal grounds for the direct entry and participation of the Belarusian army in Russia’s war against Ukraine
Part 2 of this article is available here
as the country faces key debates over social policy
and national security that could shape its political trajectory
The annual report said Russia is using aggressive tactics
such as unauthorized airspace incursions and close encounters with NATO ships and aircraft
including Iranian-designed Shahed-type drones
located about 70 kilometers northwest of Donetsk
remains one of the most fiercely contested sectors of the front
where Russia has concentrated its main offensive efforts since March
(Updated: May 6, 2025 11:41 am)Ukraine's drones target Moscow second night in a row, Russian official claims, ahead of Victory Day parade. Debris from one of the drones reportedly fell on the Kashirskoye Highway
The reported attack comes just days before Russia's Victory Day parade and three-day "truce."
Vice President Mike Pence said Putin "only understands power."
About 800 million euros ($905 million) will be allocated for the acquisition and installation of anti-tank mines to deter potential aggression
(Updated: May 6, 2025 9:36 am)War analysisFrance is sending Ukraine more AASM Hammer bombs — here's what they can do
Polish President Andrzej Duda said the United States has tools that can effectively influence the Kremlin
arguing that only President Donald Trump has real leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin
The number includes 1,430 casualties that Russian forces suffered over the past day
"To the Success of Our Hopeless Cause: The Many Lives of the Soviet Dissident Movement" by Benjamin Nathans
which covers dissent in the Soviet Union and Russia today
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) on May 5 announced they had facilitated Russian journalist Ekaterina Barabash's escape from Russia to France after she fled house arrest on April 21
A Russian drone attack on Odesa Oblast on May 5 killed one and caused damage to local infrastructure
by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko seen during the 2nd Eurasian Economic Forum on May 24
(Contributor/Getty Images)Minsk is prepared to host the leaders of the United States
and Russia for talks on ending Russia's war against Ukraine
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko said in an interview on March 4
Lukashenko's remarks follow shortly after the U.S. imposed an immediate freeze on military aid to Ukraine, in a move the White House claimed was meant to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky into entering peace negotiations
In an interview with American internet personality Mario Nawfal that aired on Belarusian state media, Lukashenko said he was willing to help U.S. President Donald Trump achieve his goal of brokering peace between Kyiv and Moscow
"It's only 200 kilometers from the Belarusian border to Kyiv
So tell Trump: I'm waiting for him here
along with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and Zelensky
Lukashenko stressed that he did not want to act as a mediator between other nations
It means being between someone and pretending that you can do something," he said
Belarus previously hosted talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2014 and 2015, leading to the Minsk Agreements. The agreements were meant to stop the Donbas war
triggered by Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014
Russia violated both agreements. Two days before launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022
Putin declared that the Minsk Agreements "no longer existed."
Zelensky brought up Russia's violation of prior agreements during his Oval Office meeting with Trump and U.S
in an attempt to explain the importance of concrete security guarantees for Ukraine
Trump and Vance responded by berating Zelensky
In a joint address to both chambers of the U.S. Congress on March 4, Trump made little mention of the decision
but said he planned to work with "both sides" to stop the war in Ukraine
Belarus remains a staunch ally of the Kremlin
While it has not committed its own troops to the battlefield in Ukraine
it allowed the Russian military to use its territory and infrastructure extensively during the launch of the full-scale invasion
Zelensky claimed on Feb. 14 that Russia is once again building up troops in Belarus, possibly in preparation for large-scale operations against NATO countries.
Abbey Fenbert is a senior news editor at the Kyiv Independent. She is a freelance writer, editor, and playwright with an MFA from Boston University. Abbey served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Ukraine from 2008-2011.
then-French President Francois Hollande and then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk
Ten years after Kyiv and Moscow first negotiated a ceasefire to end the fighting in Ukraine’s east
the two sides may once again find themselves around the negotiating table to reach a truce on the battlefield
Kyiv insists that any ceasefire alone will not be enough to guarantee Ukraine’s security if Russia’s full-scale invasion is brought to an end through peace negotiations
After Russia invaded Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts with the use of proxy forces in the spring of 2014, multiple truces were negotiated between 2014 and 2015 as part of what became known as the Minsk Process, named for the city in the neighboring Belarus where the talks took place
France, Germany, and OSCE acted as mediators in negotiations between the Ukrainian government and the self-proclaimed independent "republics," set up and financed by Russia in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts
while in fact being a party and the instigator of the conflict
But following both rounds of negotiations, referred to as Minsk-1 and 2, Russian-backed militants in the area violated the various ceasefires dozens of times
Still, Russia has continuously blamed Ukraine for failing to perform the Minsk agreements
Russia pronounced that the agreements “no longer existed” and used it as one of the pretexts to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine
under pressure from its international partners and a deteriorating situation on the battlefield
was forced to sign an unfavorable deal in 2014 and an even worse one in 2015
Needing financial support from the West and time to build up its military
Ukraine felt it had no choice but to sign the agreements
according to then-Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin
With fresh memories of this failed peace process
President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated Ukraine would not accept a negotiated end to the invasion that does not contain firm security guarantees from partners
The invasion of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by Russian forces began in April 2014
when several dozen armed people led by Igor Girkin
also known by his alias "Igor Strelkov," a retired Federal Security Service's (FSB) colonel
seized administrative buildings in the city of Sloviansk
Ukraine lost control of the Russian-Ukrainian border in Luhansk Oblast
through which Moscow supplied weapons and equipment
Russia, which annexed Crimea earlier the same year
claimed that the armed conflict in Donbas was an internal political affair of Ukraine caused by the discontent of residents
International and Ukrainian monitoring bodies
including the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)
Russian-backed militants received significant reinforcements in August 2014, when the regular Russian army joined them in the area of Ilovaisk and helped to surround Ukrainian troops. Their encirclement ended in what is now known as the “Ilovaisk Tragedy” when Russian forces fired upon evacuating Ukrainian troops
despite the Russian side agreeing to a “green corridor” to ensure their safe passage
Three hundred sixty Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the onslaught
Amid heavy territorial and personnel losses
Kyiv was forced to sit down at the negotiating table within the Trilateral Contact Group
Those talks led to the conclusion of the Minsk Protocol
a 12-point document aimed at establishing a ceasefire in Donbas
The document was signed by the Special Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office Heidi Tagliavini
Ukraine's second President Leonid Kuchma
and then-Ambassador of Russia to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov
Russian proxies Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky
who represented the militants in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
During an additional round of talks on Sept
the parties also agreed on a nine-point memorandum that specified the truce terms
including a ban on military aircraft flights over the agreed security zone
While the agreement led to reduced fighting
forcing the parties back to the negotiating table
"Maybe 1% of me believed that the Minsk Agreements would work
99% were sure that they would not," then-reconnaissance platoon commander Ruslan with the callsign "Spasatel" ("the savior" in English)
who served near Shyrokyne in Donetsk Oblast at that time
He is identified only by his first name and callsign for security reasons
Russian-backed troops from Donetsk Oblast captured the Donetsk Airport after months of extremely heavy fighting
Russian-backed militants along with regular Russian troops launched an assault on the strategically important city of Debaltseve
once again finding itself in a weaker position on the battlefield and under pressure from its European partners
agreed to a second round of talks in Minsk
Ukraine and Russia met for the second time on Feb
This time, the talks included a long meeting of the Normandy Format, represented by then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, and Russian President Vladimir Putin
the countries' leaders met in Minsk — previously
the negotiations in Belarus had been held at a lower level
The talks lasted nearly 16 hours. Following the negotiations, the leaders agreed on a 13-point Package of Measures for implementing the new agreements. The Trilateral Contact Group signed it, and the Minsk-2 agreement was officially born
and then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk
(Mykola Lazarenko / Pool / AFP via Getty Images)According to Minsk-2
a comprehensive ceasefire had to be declared at the front line starting at midnight on Feb
Unlike the Minsk-1 agreements that created a buffer zone on the Russia-Ukraine border
the OSCE was supposed to monitor the disengagement of weapons at the contact line
Minsk-2 also included a point on the self-governance of the Russian-occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
Russia pushed for their recognition as autonomous regions to be enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution
it was a way of making us fundamentally dependent (on Russia)," Klimkin
Within minutes of the declaration of a comprehensive ceasefire on Feb
the OSCE recorded shelling of Ukrainian positions
over 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers were forced to withdraw from Debaltseve
According to Ukraine's Defense Ministry
and 18 went missing in Debaltseve from Jan
They just became less intense," then-reconnaissance platoon commander Ruslan
with the callsign "Spasatel," said
The documents signed in Minsk also were never ratified by any parliament
Even during the years between the Minsk Agreements and the full-scale invasion
Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers were killed during this period
Recalling the agreements in 2022, Poroshenko said that the most important thing then was to buy time for Ukraine and slow down Russia's advance in the east
to avert the threat or at least delay the war
To get eight years to restore economic growth and build the strength of the Armed Forces," Poroshenko said
which was supposed to record ceasefire violations and war crimes
was often refused access to Russian-occupied territory by the Kremlin-backed militants
the Ukrainian soldier with the call sign "Spasatel," recalled this peacekeeping mission as "absolutely useless" because it operated mainly on the territory controlled by Ukraine
were more preoccupied with avoiding any escalation with the Kremlin and deepening economic ties with Russia
"Merkel launched the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in 2015. Despite discussions with Ukraine and the EU, she kept repeating that it was just 'an economic project’," Klimkin said.
"The logic then was: 'Let's stop (this war where it is) and try to settle down.' And much of the West believed in this logic," Klimkin added.
Later negotiations that took place under the Normandy Format in 2019, which facilitated a “comprehensive” ceasefire signed on July 18, 2019, were equally unsuccessful at curtailing Russia’s aggression.
The last meeting of the format took place on Feb. 10, 2022, just two weeks before the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.
Kateryna Hodunova is a News Editor at the Kyiv Independent
She previously worked as a sports journalist in several Ukrainian outlets and was the deputy chief editor at Suspilne Sport
Kateryna covered the 2022 Olympics in Beijing and was included in the Special Mentions list at the AIPS Sport Media Awards
She holds a bachelor's degree in political journalism from Taras Shevchenko University and a master's degree in political science from the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
The world is full of distorted versions of Ukrainian history
The Kyiv Independent wanted to make sure readers had a reliable source of information about important Ukrainian historical events
and cultural traditions.The articles featured here are thorough and detailed pieces that span centuries to the current day and include topics from Ukraine’s presidents to the country’s culinary traditions
The unprecedented operation allegedly took place on May 2 near the Russian port of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea
Even authoritarian states have found that it is much easier to stoke such hostility than it is to snuff it out
Russian-Belarusian official anti-Catholicism will further exacerbate problems between Moscow and Minsk
Many are likely to assume that this Belarusian-Russian attack on Roman Catholicism
will not matter very much now that the world appears to be entering into a more tough-minded “realist” approach to international relations
there has been a decline in attention to those who are victimized by the Belarusian or Russian state for religious reasons
The anti-Catholicism of Belarus and Russia
is different and likely to have other consequences in international relations
however dismissive realists may be about the power of the Pope
both directly and through its networks of bishops
is able to attract far more attention to the repression of its followers
objections from the Vatican are able to have an outsized impact on the countries where Catholics are numerous and followers of that denomination are found in the leading ranks of the realists
it is now obvious to an increasing number of people in the West that anti-Catholicism in Belarus and Russia is a euphemism for anti-Westernism
To the extent that that understanding spreads
it will be more difficult for Western leaders to ignore attacks on Catholics in the two Slavic countries
Western leaders are unlikely to be able to dismiss what Minsk and Moscow are saying about—and doing to—Catholics
This makes it likely that the current attacks will cast not only a dark but a long shadow on the future
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by Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attends a press conference in Minsk
(Contributor/Getty Images)Minsk could be the best place to host potential trilateral talks between the U.S.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the Russian news agency Interfax on March 5
Peskov's statement follows a proposal by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to host U.S. President Donald Trump
and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for peace talks
"This issue has not been brought up or discussed in any way
so it is the best place for negotiations," Peskov said
According to Peskov, the Kremlin is "positive" about Zelensky's stated readiness to "come to the negotiating table."
the Ukrainian president said that he and his team "stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts." He went on to propose the release of prisoners and a partial truce in the air and sea as first steps toward a peace deal
Zelensky's overture came days after his public clash with Trump in the Oval Office and after the U.S. paused all military aid to pressure Ukraine to talks
"The question is with whom to sit (at the negotiating table)
there is still a legal prohibition for the Ukrainian president to negotiate with the Russian side
but the nuances have not yet changed," Peskov added
Trump's recent stance on Ukraine, including his public rebuke of Zelensky and reported halt on U.S. military aid to Kyiv, has drawn praise from Russian officials while raising concerns among European allies
from its traditional role as Ukraine's primary supporter
instead questioning Kyiv's commitment to peace and implying that Ukraine shares blame for the ongoing war
Trump, echoing Kremlin rhetoric on the war in Ukraine, said at the end of February the country should "forget" about joining NATO
which the country sees as a security guarantee against a future Russian invasion
Russia has repeatedly presented NATO expansion as a "justification" for the war
The U.S. also voted alongside Russia on Feb
resolution that condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine
(L-R) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend a press conference after a summit on Ukraine in Paris
(Charles Platiau/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
by Non-resident Russia fellow at the Institute for the Study of WarThe following op-ed is based on a broader report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Some peace deals lead to peace; others lead to more war. The Minsk II deal, aimed at ending Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, instead laid the groundwork for Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The United States must learn from the Minsk deal or risk a direct Russia-NATO conflict that puts American lives at risk
Minsk II was a weak deal. It demanded nothing of the invader — Russia
It reinforced the Kremlin’s aggressive worldview that had driven the conflict to begin with
It gave the Kremlin time and space to prepare for a larger invasion
The West could have helped Ukraine reach a stronger deal in 2015
Minsk II gave Russian President Vladimir Putin hope that he could win in Ukraine without war
Russia sought and failed to control Ukraine in 2014 through military means
Minsk II gave Putin a way to demand that Ukraine — a sovereign state — cede control over its internal policies
Putin turned to the full-scale invasion in 2022
Minsk II helped Putin mask his demands for Ukraine’s surrender behind false calls for peace
The West has repeatedly failed to confront and counter the real Russian demands since 2014
Minsk II reinforced Western delusions that Putin might settle if he received some land or if the West scaled back support for Ukraine or tried harder to negotiate with him
The deal also provided an excuse for those who understood the Kremlin’s goals but still sought to restore ties with Russia
said in 2024 that Minsk II “legitimized the first partition of Ukraine.” Surkov’s words confirm Russia’s goal to destroy Ukraine as a state and use the Minsk deal to achieve that
He added that “peace is nothing more than the continuation of war by other means.”
Another weak deal today would validate Putin’s 2022 invasion and give him hope of gaining more over time
More war means a larger conflict: A Russia absolved of any cost for its invasion will want more and rebuild its ability to do so
A larger war would raise costs for the U.S.
and escalate the conflict to catastrophic levels
The Trump administration has a historic opportunity to break Russia’s cycle of overt war and war by “peace” in Ukraine
must learn the lessons from the Minsk deal
Russia will aim to shift the blame for and cost of its war of choice in Ukraine, as it did with the Minsk II deal. The Kremlin will blame the U.S., NATO, Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
Anglo-Saxons with their “aggressive intentions,” as the Russian Foreign Ministry puts it
Russia will attempt to offload the cost of the destruction it caused in Ukraine onto someone else’s balance sheet — be it Ukraine
position should be that Russia owns the problem it created
Anything less than a demand for Russia to foot the trillion-dollar bill for the damage it caused and to restore the borders of Ukraine that Russia formally recognized in 1991 and 1994 should be framed as a major concession to Putin
Negotiations that start with preemptive concessions on these demands
without insisting on parallel Russian concessions
would repeat the central mistake of the Minsk deal
must make Russia own the problem it created
both for the sake of a just peace and out of pure pragmatism
There is no reason someone else should cover the bill for Russia’s war
Russia’s war of choice killed and wounded an estimated million people
Russia caused an estimated half a trillion to a trillion dollars in damage to Ukraine and billions to the U.S
Russia cost countless hours and energy from people in the U.S
Russia chose to start this war for no legitimate reason, and it can choose to end it at any point. Ukraine did not pose a threat to Russia. Putin thought Ukraine was so militarily weak that he could conquer it in a matter of days in 2022. Russia was not seriously concerned with a military threat from NATO
as evidenced by Russia’s military posture for years before 2022 and even during its war in Ukraine
Putin had effectively blocked Ukraine’s NATO accession by 2022
Putin did not invade to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine — Russian forces are killing Russian speakers at scale in Ukraine
There were no legitimate “casus belli” — only Putin’s desire to control Ukraine
Russian troops can simply withdraw from Ukraine
Russia will still exist as a state without Ukraine
Another deal that absolves Russia will lead to a larger war with higher costs for the U.S
A deal that lets Russia keep its illegal gains in Ukraine at no cost will reinforce the mindset that drove Russia to invade
bringing close to zero the chances of a Russia compatible with U.S
Minsk 3.0 would create a Russia that will want even more and will be able to do more
The Russia of 2025 is not the Russia of 2022
Russia in 2022 was expansionist enough to attack its neighbor without provocation and kill thousands — only to fail to achieve its declared war aims three years later
President Donald Trump arrives to speak to the media at a press conference on the second day of the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels
(Sean Gallup / Getty Images)Putin has transformed Russian society to support military conquest over three years of war
He has empowered Russian ultranationalists who believe in expansion by force
Putin has promoted these ultranationalists to prominent positions within Russia
Russian ultranationalists are inherently anti-American
They see Russia as being at war with the U.S.-led collective West for the new world order
They are committed to sustaining the war indefinitely and advocate for the permanent mobilization of the Russian people and the means to fight the West
would not only face a stronger Putin or Putinist regime (or worse) but a stronger
battle-forged Russian military that is experienced in fighting a NATO-supplied adversary
has a better starting position on the battlefield compared to February 2022
Putin is hardly eager to return over half a million violent Russian men deployed to Ukraine back to Russia
He will likely seek to redirect their energy elsewhere if the lines in Ukraine are frozen with no constraints on Russian forces or the Kremlin’s choices
If an emboldened and more capable Russia invades Ukraine to complete the conquest
it will cost more Ukrainian lives and very likely bring the Russian military closer to NATO borders
increasing the risk of a direct NATO-Russia conflict
risks a larger war with higher costs and higher escalation risks on conditions that favor Russia
The only way to break the vicious cycle of Russian wars is not to absolve Russia of responsibility and force Russia to own the problem it created
The Kremlin will falsely insist that Ukraine is not sovereign
Russia will try to make a deal directly with the U.S
The Kremlin will falsely insist that Zelensky is not legitimate and demand that Ukraine hold elections that violate its constitution
Putin will embed provisions to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty into any deal
Putin has already laid out preconditions and poison pills for even sitting down at the table
He is demanding limits on Ukraine’s freedom to choose its partners and Ukraine’s ability to defend itself (e.g.
demanding that Ukraine limit the size of its military)
Russia’s negotiators will engineer ways to control the physical enforcement mechanism in any deal
The Kremlin needs to preserve options to escalate the war at will
Putin will try to do what he tried (and failed) to do via Minsk II — legitimize the Kremlin’s invasion without any security guarantees to Ukraine
Putin’s demands are proxies for Russia’s actual goals: controlling Ukraine and having the U.S
and NATO cede their principles and interests to accommodate a world order that favors Russia
should deprive Putin of the hope that he can achieve either
This war can only end when Russia knows it cannot win militarily or through another “peace” deal
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference in Kyiv
(Yan Dobronosov / Global Images Ukraine / Getty Images)The U.S
should focus on conditions compatible with Ukraine’s sovereignty and U.S
interests — rather than discussing lines on the map
should reject direct U.S.-Russia talks or Putin’s demands regarding Ukraine’s domestic affairs
or any other demand that limits Ukraine’s sovereignty
Conceding to Putin’s demands before talks would be a self-imposed failure
Any deal that gives Putin hope to control Ukraine will fail
A deal that does not give Putin hope to control Ukraine is not a deal that Putin will accept — unless this deal is imposed on him through a battlefield defeat
a severe degradation of Russian military capability
A deterrent that has a chance to deter Russia requires a capable military force immune to Western political cycles and Russian influence
will not be viewed as a deterrent by Russia
A UN-brokered enforcement mechanism is a non-starter
because of Russia’s veto power in the UN Security Council
A credible deterrent is impossible without a strong defense industrial base (DIB) in the West and Ukraine
The Kremlin has exploited the fact that Europe’s DIB could not surge in support of Ukraine and that the U.S
could have but lacked the will to fill the void
Depriving Putin of hope to subjugate Ukraine in his lifetime requires a strong Western and Ukrainian DIB able to alter the assumptions of Russian military planning
leaders that making him accept less than his goals in Ukraine is a non-starter
Russia will draw the next set of red lines
Putin can be made to accept a loss without escalating
He settled for less than his aims in Ukraine in 2014 and in 2022
Ukraine defeated Russia at the Battle of Kyiv and expelled Russian forces from critical terrain in Ukraine in 2022
Russian authorities claimed Russia would be in Kherson “forever,” but they withdrew in 2022
Putin was forced to accept Ukraine’s incursion in Russia’s Kursk Oblast in 2024 — the first invasion of Russia since World War II
Putin reportedly ordered the Russian forces to liberate Kursk by October 2024 — a mission failure as of February 2025
Russia’s decade of gains in Syria is at risk
Russian military basing and political influence in Syria were key to Russia’s power in the Middle East
A decade of Putin’s work is at the mercy of HTS — militants whom Russia used to call terrorists but can no longer because HTS holds Moscow at its mercy
the new reality was not “negotiated” with Putin—it was imposed on him by force
will eventually recognize that the only way to have Russia accept a deal is to impose one on Russia
should not distract itself by providing Putin an “offramp.” Putin has an offramp — the Kremlin’s control of Russia’s information space
The Kremlin reframed or downplayed Putin's humiliating setbacks — from Russia’s retreat from Kherson to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny to the degradation and expulsion of the Black Sea fleet from Crimea
This information control allowed Putin to normalize a new and worse reality in Russia each time
including softening the blow for an estimated 800,000 Russian casualties in pursuit of arguably mediocre battlefield results in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Piskarevskoye Memorial Cemetery in St
(Artem Priakhin / SOPA Images / Getty Images)Putin and Russia have failed before
There is no compelling reason why Putin should not be made to fail again
And if the information offramp eventually fails him
despite Russia’s increased but still modest gains in eastern Ukraine
While Russia has well-documented advantages
Putin is also accumulating risks and costs
His military faces material and manpower shortages
and economic strains — including inflation
the erosion of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund
and increasingly costly trade-offs between funneling limited manpower to the frontlines or shoring up the economy
Russia also depends on partners to sustain its war effort
policies toward China and Iran are putting those enabling relationships at risk
if a Trump administration gifts Russia the time and space to regroup — just as the Biden administration’s incremental approach has allowed Putin to in the past
As Minsk II helped obscure Russian failures in 2015
a premature deal now risks letting Putin off the hook before he faces hard choices and mounting pressures — before Ukraine and the U.S
The Kremlin will face mounting costs if the U.S. and its partners apply maximum pressure — something they have yet to do since Putin’s full-scale invasion in 2022
Washington still has many underutilized tools to ratchet up pressure on Russia
from striking harder at its energy sector to targeting the Kremlin across multiple theaters and domains
But the most effective driver of Russia’s economic losses remains its sustained battlefield defeats
Maximum pressure on Russia is impossible without U.S
and its partners must ensure the Kremlin faces compounding pressure — on the battlefield and beyond — without easy ways to offset it
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent
Nataliya Bugayova is a non-resident Russia Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
She is the author of "How We Got Here with Russia: The Kremlin's Worldview" and "Putin's Offset: The Kremlin's Geopolitical Adaptations Since 2014." Bugayova currently serves as the Director of Strategic Insight at technology company Vertical Knowledge
She was previously the CEO of the Kyiv Post
TEHRAN – Iran and Belarus solidified their partnership by signing a defense cooperation agreement on Wednesday
a move both nations described as critical to countering shared security threats and advancing a multipolar world order
sealed during Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh's visit to Minsk where he engaged with Belarusian Defense Minister General Viktor Khrenin
illustrates the growing military collaboration between the two nations
Nasirzadeh emphasized the agreement’s role in “reinforcing defense and security interactions through practical measures,” while Khrenin hailed it as a foundation for “long-term stability in an era of escalating unilateralism.”
The deal builds on a 2023 memorandum of understanding and expands collaboration into military technology
Another significant aspect of the discussions was tapping into multilateral venues
including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
to address what Nasirzadeh termed “artificial crises imposed by hegemonic powers.”
Both ministers criticized Western sanctions and NATO expansion
advocating instead for “defensive diplomacy” and regional alliances independent of U.S
The agreement also highlights technological exchange
with Iran’s significant domestic defense manufacturing possibly offering a platform for cooperation
The accord follows months of prior engagement between the two nations
including a January 2024 meeting in Tehran between Iranian Army Chief Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi and Belarusian Air Force Commander Major General Andrey Lukyanovich
Regional observers note the timing aligns with heightened U.S.-EU pressure on both nations
has encountered considerable pressure from Western nations in recent years—intensifying since the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian War—while Iran has been the target of Western sanctions for many decades
Even though the agreement avoids overtly provocative language
its emphasis on “multipolarity” and “resistance to coercion” reflects Tehran and Minsk’s shared rhetoric
Arno Van Rensbergen is a reporter at The Parliament Magazine
Decades of Western missteps came to a head in the Oval Office last week, as a tense but cordial meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump and his top officials devolved into an ugly fight for the world to see.
have left Ukraine and its European partners confronting a worst-case scenario they have long feared
showing little interest in providing any security assurances
Ukrainian officials have said they can hold out against Russian assaults even without their top military supporter. The freeze extends, at least partly
which Ukrainian forces have relied on for targeting
it is difficult to assess if Trump’s order marks a lasting policy shift
a fleeting impulse or a negotiating gambit.
Neither Ukraine, Europe nor NATO received much attention in Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress in Washington on Tuesday
He seemed pleased with Zelenskyy’s reiteration of his country’s desire to find a way to end the war that Russia started.
However the details now unfold, Europe faces its gravest security challenge since the Cold War — and an ironic one: The US has long pushed its European allies to take on more responsibility for their own security, and many of them have expressed a desire to do so
That moment is more obviously present than ever
but what a rebalanced transatlantic security arrangement looks like remains murky
A summit on Sunday in London made sweeping promises
including fresh financial support for arms and a “coalition of the willing” to police a post-war arrangement
Yet those pledges came with the acknowledgement that
“Any kind of European troops in Ukraine only have a deterrent effect if they are backed up by a US backstop,” Roland Freudenstein
the Brussels office director of the Free Russia Foundation
a non-profit that supports democracy efforts in Russia
but also support such as logistics and intelligence
which “Europe lacks at the moment,” he added.
A lack of hard power makes European soft power less convincing
Europe has a poor track record in brokering peace or filling the role of security guarantor
took umbrage with what they perceived as Zelenskyy’s lack of gratitude for US support
much of the Ukrainian president’s beef was directed at Europe.
Years before Trump would be demanding more of Europe
Europe tried to do more — and failed
the US played no direct role in negotiations to end Russia’s initial and more limited incursion into Ukraine
which annexed the Crimean Peninsula and backed separatists in its eastern Donbas region.
Called the Normandy Format, Germany and France brought Ukraine and Russia to agree to the Minsk I and II agreements
and prisoner exchange and humanitarian aid.
These were the “multilateral conversations” Zelenskyy was referring to at the White House
as he expressed concerns that a new deal without meaningful security guarantees would be just as ineffective
Zelenskyy was not president at the time of the initial negotiations
Macron and Merkel — we signed ceasefire,” he told Trump and Vance
referring to the French president and former German chancellor
“All of them told me that [Russian President Vladimir Putin] will never go.”
Only when he did “go” — that is
break the deal and attack Ukraine again — did major European and other Western partners start to take the fate of the former Soviet republic seriously
Significant support for Ukraine’s defence began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
“The Minsk agreements were neither efficient
a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment
“The terms of the negotiated agreements became increasingly favourable to Russia’s interests.”
They also lacked enforcement mechanisms and “were full of ambiguous language,” he added
Aside from some sanctions against Russia
there was little to assure Ukraine’s security
failed to provide sufficient military or economic pressure to dissuade further Russian aggression.
Merkel acknowledged that the “Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time,” but that time was not used to shore up Ukraine’s defences in a way that would have changed the Kremlin’s calculus.
US President Barack Obama limited American assistance to non-lethal aid; Trump provided some anti-tank weapons.
Historical, political and economic considerations also divided the European Union. Countries like Hungary and Slovakia opposed standing up to Russia. Germany dragged its feet, benefitting from direct imports of affordable Russian gas and feeling beholden to Moscow’s claim to liberating Germany from Nazism in World War II.
Countries once under Soviet influence, such as Poland and the Baltic states, raised alarm bells
The Minsk I and II terms were “imposed on Ukraine at the barrel of a gun
when Russian and separatist forces were making territorial gains and pushing Ukrainian forces on the defensive,” Ätland said.
That may sound familiar to those following recent battlefield developments. While Ukraine has, at considerable cost
held out against a numerically superior force
it has not enjoyed decisive strategic gains since earlier in the war.
“Trump's approach toward Zelenskyy was in the best of worlds transactional and the worst of worlds a return to forms of imperialism,” Olivia Lazard
European leaders face tough odds of avoiding a Minsk-style agreement with similar results.
but both US and European partners have struggled with procurement and meeting delivery targets.
“A war cabinet is starting to crystallise,” Sven Biscop
the director of the Egmont Royal Institute for Foreign Affairs in Brussels
can take action with a mandate from the other European countries.”
That could prove elusive. Hungary and Slovakia, whose governments are friendlier with Trump and Putin, oppose measures that contradict US policy. A draft of conclusions for the Council meeting repeats long-held platitudes: an end to the war through a comprehensive
The EU should help Ukraine get “in the strongest possible position” to conclude peace and stand by Ukraine forever — at any cost.
That echoes the “as long as it takes” position that pro-Ukrainian leaders in Europe and the US have repeated since 2022
Maximalist positions run contrary to a negotiated settlement that will
agree to at least some terms in Russia’s favour.
“It’s unclear what the West’s interest in Ukraine is other than moral righteousness
which cannot be sustained,” Nicolai Petro
a senior Washington Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy
a US & Canada -based foreign policy think tank
“The actual negotiating process has to begin with the recognition that you will have to compromise.”
However the current iteration of West-Russia tensions evolves
it will likely feel much different than how the Cold War ended — not with the satisfying bang of Soviet implosion
but the whimper of unpleasant concessions that may look like anything but victory.
“It all boils down to the question,” Petro said
“What’s Russia's role in Europe?”
This article has been updated to reflect latest developments
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This has to be one of the more unusual Waldorf Astoria hotel openings in the pipeline…
The Waldorf Astoria Minsk
is expected to open in March 2025 (though isn’t accepting reservations yet)
and will be known as the Grand Hotel Minsk
Belarus is a country that’s closely aligned with Russia
and which has been growing increasingly isolated from European Union countries in recent years
which I find to be an even stranger branding choice.Was this hotel supposed to be a Viceroy?Bottom lineThe Waldorf Astoria Minsk is expected to open in March 2025
and should be Belarus’ most luxurious hotel
though I can’t say that returning to Minsk is near the top of my travel list at the moment…
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This is a disgrace to have a hotel open in the dictatorship and lackey to Russia
I've been watching the construction for the past 18 months or so
The Basilian (Curio Collection) is part of the same development next to the river
That opened about 18 months ago and has 39 rooms
This will definitely be the most luxurious hotel in Minsk when it opens but should be a big success...
This will definitely be the most luxurious hotel in Minsk when it opens but should be a big success
The number of tourists visiting Minsk in recent years has been increasing rapidly
I wonder how long it will be until this project stops because Belarus is increasingly isolated in the world
Belarus is becoming increasingly isolated by the 'Western world'
The amount of money from the Middle East being invested in Belarus currently is quite staggering
I love that the average gaslit westerner who doesn't realise it's their own deep state / establishment who are the "baddies" have there eyes shut to what's really going on in the world :)
Do you realize that Putin is pretty much of a McCarthyist
Been to 29 Waldorf Astoria all over the world
Belorus is on my list to visit ( my niece located my great grandfather grave in Vitebsk) but definitely not now
Some similar design tones to the WA Kuwait
I wouldn’t hold your breath for it to open any time soon
Look at what happened with the Hyatt and the Kempinski
@the clowns who are joking about lying why nobody should go to Belarus - the country has thousands of political prisoners
including one Nobel prize laureate behind bars and another in forced exile
It summarily arrests foreigners and uses them as for its negotiations with the West
A German citizen was just released earlier this month after being sentenced to death
But you forgot that every prisoner swap means a bad guy set free
Unless of course we also detain idiots doing similar things from the other side as political pawns too
Hmm might be time to organize an erotic journey from Milan to Minsk to check it out
As it’s an American company questions should be asked
Or I assume they simply use the name to fool people given it would be difficult to take legal action
Hilton are still fully operating all their hotels in Russia
And it's Middle Eastern money financing this hotel and other recent openings in Minsk
Shame on me but I didn’t realise that some global hotel brands were still operating in Russia
can’t boycott them on work trips but certainly will for my holidays
Now be a good brainwashed Westerner and demand your employer stop doing business with them or you will go on strike
Don't be a bad brainwashed hypocrite and cancel a brand only when it's convenient for you
@eskimo that's some weird ass analysis my guy
"not allowed to calibrate risk/benefit" lmao
I can do anything I want because I calibrate risk/benefit and it's convenient for me not because I believe in the reason or cause
You can go rob a bank if risk/benefit is in your favor
You're supposed to not rob anyone even if you can get away with it
I’m sure it will be rebranded to a Tr*#mp property once his family has moved to White Russia in shame
It has a casino so all good…they know how to bankrupt a casino better than anyone
Same country that forced a commercial plane to emergency land from its airspace just to arrest someone they didnt like
and not long after given a Presidential pardon and released
Businesses pull out of Russia not because of Russia but because of the idiots who would cancel the brand
Unfortunately there are so many idiots that losing Russia is cheaper than losing the idiots
I'm surprised that you actually made a fair point this time
there are bunch of people who would cancel any brands operating in Russia
while they'll continue to buy brands not only operating in
Of course someone would say that I'm talking about some country in the Middle East with the name starting with "I"
but that's totally ignorant about what's happening..
but that's totally ignorant about what's happening with some of their neighbouring countries
in addition to some huge country in the Far East
The people on TV told me that Russia is bad so Belarus must be too
Or perhaps because you only watch TV and Tucker’s report from Moscow
Have you heard about this war thing happening in Ukraine
Minsk is a beautiful city and one of the safest in Europe
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In the weeks following the signing of the treaty, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that the defense of Belarus is a very important component of Russia’s updated nuclear strategy. He stressed that threats to Belarus will be considered as threats to Russia and that the Kremlin will take all necessary measures to ensure Belarus’ security, including with the use of nuclear weapons (TASS
The latter system is planned to be deployed on the territory of Belarus as early as this year (Ibid)
this formation may include the Regional Troops Grouping (RTG) of Belarus and Russia
the Belarusian military leadership within the RTG Joint Command would be involved in activating PALs of nuclear warheads
The treaty will be reviewed twice annually by Minsk and Moscow
Its duration is 10 years with an automatic 10-year extension
likely extending beyond the Lukashenka era
This undermines Minsk’s attempt to participate as a neutral party in international negotiations on Russia’s war in Ukraine
positioning it as a military and geopolitical ally of Russia
In the event of any escalation of conflict with Ukraine and NATO
Belarus may serve as Russia’s launching pad for nuclear weapons and a military springboard for waging the war
thus shifting the burden of first retaliatory strikes to the Belarusian side rather than to Russia
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PANNIER: Prince Karim Aga Khan IV obituary
New Aga Khan takes helm of Ismaili Shi'ite Muslims
Liberia’s mining resurgence: from conflict to opportunity
US adds 17 Liberian-flagged bulk carriers and oil tankers to Russian sanctions-busting blacklist
Force majeure at Libya’s Zawiya Refinery threatens exports and oil expansion plans
facing loss of Syrian base for Africa operations
seen turning to war-torn Sudan or divided Libya
Libya’s mineral riches: unlocking a future beyond oil
Russia funding war in Ukraine via illegal gold mining in Africa – WGC report
Ukraine claims it was behind massacre of Wagner Group mercenaries in Mali
Uzbekistan's Startup Garage arrives in North Africa with Casablanca launch
EBRD warns of risks for emerging markets pursuing industrial policies
Can Morocco's phosphate wealth put it at the centre of the global battery supply chain
Foreign agricultural workers flock to South Africa as sector expands
Russia's nuclear diplomacy binding emerging markets to the Kremlin
Can Niger's military junta seize the country's uranium opportunity
Disaster season: heat waves sweep the world – in charts and maps
Niger and beyond: Francophone credit delivers coup de grâce
From blood diamonds to critical minerals: Sierra Leone’s mining transformation
10 African countries to experience world’s fastest population growth to 2100
Global press freedom indicator slips – Statista
SITREP: Middle East rapidly destabilised by a week of missile strikes
Gold and guns: how civil war keeps Sudan's mineral riches in the ground
Colombian mercenaries trapped in Sudan’s conflict
COMMENT: What impact will a raft of protests across the Emerging Markets have
Tunisian President Kais Saied re-elected for second term
Sri Lanka's LTL Holdings targets African power sector
WHO declares "global public health emergency" owing to mpox outbreak in Central Africa
Climate crisis-driven global food security deteriorated between 2019 and 2022 and is even affecting the US
Reserve Bank of India signals further rate cuts as inflation eases and growth outlook weakens
Singapore eases monetary policy again as growth outlook dims and tariff pressures mount
Russia and Indonesia work on direct bank settlement framework to bolster trade
Bank of Korea expected to lower rates in April despite currency slide
IMF: Global debt to exceed pandemic levels soon
Chipping point – the climate toll of AI chip-making in East Asia
Indonesia’s coal politics: maintaining a strategic market price despite Chinese resistance
India moves to cut reliance on Chinese solar modules and PV cells
Google backs Taiwan’s geothermal future in landmark Asia-Pacific energy deal
mobility infrastructure in western Himalayas
India eyes deeper trade ties with trusted economies
Record gold prices to hit sales volume of Indian jewellery retailers
Beijing VS Washington on rare earths – and why the US is losing
Vietnam gold prices hit record highs as global bullion rallies
Indonesia to launch national data centre by April 2025
Tehran-based ride-hailing giant sets record with nearly 6mn daily trips
Chinese threat to submarine cables emerges in Indo-Pacific
BMI: New US tariffs set to reshape economic landscape across Middle East
US deploys six B-2 bombers to Indian Ocean ahead of Iran standoff
Arab League and UN condemns brutal Israeli airstrikes on Gaza
COMMENT: Gulf states court Russia but stop short of strategic shift
Iran bans skateboards and scooters in public spaces
Trump threatens sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil
Iraq facing worst drought in history as water resources dwindle and climate crisis intensifies
Unemployed Iraqi engineers block Lukoil’s site in Basra
Kazakhstan will put national interests over OPEC+ oil limits
Israel announces operation Gideon's Chariots to seize control of Gaza if hostage deal deadline missed
Israel launches airstrikes on Yemen port city
Israel to respond against Yemen for missile on Tel Aviv airport
COMMENT: Israel is attempting to destabilise Syria
Ryanair and Wizz Air to launch direct flights to Jordan in April
Netanyahu to discuss Turkey-Israel relations with Trump at White House on April 7
Syrian foreign ministry urges Kuwait to reopen embassy in Damascus
Middle East markets suffer massive losses as Trump tariff effects continue
Deadly Israeli air raids heighten risk of renewed Lebanon-Israel conflict
Israel launches airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburb amid Lebanon escalation
Missile sirens sound in northern Israel amid Lebanon border tensions
Is Oman the 'Switzerland of the Middle East'
Iran FM to visit Russia ahead of second round of US talks
Aid ship to Gaza hit by drone strikes near Malta in international waters
COMMENT: Is Israel's Prime Minister committing political suicide
Saudi Arabia deploys AI to streamline Hajj
Saudi Arabia's Riyadh Air plans first flights for late 2025
Israeli fighter jets strike targets near the Syrian presidential palace
Montenegro mega beach deal reignites debate over UAE investments in Western Balkans
Protesters against UAE beach development deal target Montenegrin parliament
Turkey says it wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria
ECLAC cuts Latin America growth forecast amid global uncertainties
LatAm set to be world's slowest-growing region as World Bank slashes forecasts
Trump’s trade tariffs push Mexico towards recession and weigh on regional growth
Latin American leaders blast US tariffs at CELAC summit as China offers economic lifeline
Why investors are turning their gaze to Latin America after Trump tariffs
Gazprom abandons Bolivia's Azero project after 16 years of unfulfilled promises
Brazilian police foil bomb plot targeting Lady Gaga's 2mn people Rio concert
IMF suspends Colombia's flexible credit line amid fiscal concerns
Colombia’s import surge deepens trade deficit
Latin America to miss more than three-quarters of 2030 sustainability targets
EU observers reject election fraud allegations in Ecuador
Ecuador's Noboa secures presidential win with 55.95% of vote
El Salvador plays defiant game with IMF Bitcoin rules
Trump and Bukele cement controversial migrant deportation deal
Cross-border oil smuggling reveals dark underbelly of US-Mexico trade nexus
Mexico rejects bleak IMF recession forecast
Panama’s Mulino rules out mining law in bid to restart First Quantum project
murder and the collapse of the Peruvian State
Trinidad opposition sweeps to power in decisive election victory
Venezuela embraces Russian GLONASS in challenge to US satellite dominance
Japanese official warns of wider Asian security impact of Trump tariffs
ASIA BLOG: Is China preparing to poke the paper tiger in the White House
Asian giants thrive in Russia despite sanctions
ASIA BLOG: China suddenly recognises need for community
Myanmar junta chief to attend regional summit in Bangkok
Southeast Asia's leading economies ponder possible US tariffs as 90-day pause takes effect
China doubles down on Cambodia ties amid global trade tensions
but Myanmar’s celebrations damped by earthquake aftermath
Albanese defies ‘incumbency curse’ with a landslide re-election in Australia
Pakistan airspace closure impacts around 600 Indian flights
war clouds hover over the Indian subcontinent
Nusantara: Indonesia’s grand ambition to reshape its future
Empty shelves and soaring costs hit Japan’s rice supply
China to boost Russian LNG imports in 2025
Myanmar’s recovery stalls as extent of losses still not known
North Korea acknowledges deployment of troops to support Russia in Kursk region
North Korea is making billions of dollars a year from supplying Russia with weapons
India bans Pakistani Youtube channels over provocative content after Kashmir attack
US imposes preliminary duties on Southeast Asian solar imports
Papua New Guinea tribal conflict leaves 30 dead amid gold mine dispute
Singapore election outcome a ‘clear signal of trust
South Korea’s PPP narrows presidential field to two finalists
China accuses US of sophisticated cyberattacks
Thailand's Maha Songkran World Water Festival draws over 558,000 visitors
Magnit acquires controlling stake in Azbuka Vkusa
German Prosecutors Confirm Termination of Money Laundering Investigation Against Alisher Usmanov
Comments by President of the Russian Fertilizers Producers Association Andrey Guryev on bilateral meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin
PhosAgro/UNESCO/IUPAC green chemistry research grants awarded for the 8th time to world's best young scientists
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Belarusian authorities released an American citizen from a Minsk jail on February 12
as part of the recent prisoner swap that saw Russia trade US citizen Paul Fogel this week for a Russian national in a US jail
The prisoner in a Belarus jail has chosen to remain anonymous
but was reportedly associated with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt confirmed the release
stating that the individual is now in Lithuania. Two others journalists for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Andrei Kuznechyk and Alena Maushuk were also released as part of the deal
The release of the RFE/RL associate follows on from the liberation of former US Embassy employee Mark Fogel from Russian detention
where he had served three and a half years of a 14-year sentence after being arrested for carrying marijuana across the Russian border
Fogel has reportedly been swapped for one of the founders and head of the BTC-e crypto exchange
ABC News and The New York Times (NYT) reported
told Vedomosti that his client has been released from prison but did not expand on his whereabouts
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russia's Sovereign Wealth Fund Chief Kirill Dmitriev arranged the exchange, Reuters reported
Vinnik was detained in Greece in 2017 at the request of the US
accused of laundering at least $4bn dollars in proceeds from criminal activity through the cryptocurrency exchange BTC-e, The Kyiv Independent reported
He has been ordered to pay $100mn to the US government and was in northern California awaiting transfer back to Russia
Putin was very quick to congratulate Trump on his victory in the US elections in televised comments only hours before Trump’s inauguration ceremony on January 20
He also said that the war in Ukraine “might not have happened” if Trump was president in 2022
and that the 2020 election victory was “stolen” from Trump
Putin said during a televised meeting that day: "If victory wasn't stolen from [Trump] in 2020..
the Ukrainian crisis might not have occurred."
Preparations for the upcoming negotiations go into high gear on February 14 as special envoy to Ukraine retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg travels to the Munich Security Conference (MSC) to consult with other world leaders to thrash out a collective position ahead of a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin
Trump is expected to release the details of his peace plan shortly after
the third anniversary of the invasion at the start of the war
Putin extended an invitation to Trump to visit Moscow and expressed readiness to host American officials to discuss matters of mutual interest
The leaders agreed to continue personal contacts and arrange a face-to-face meeting expected to be held in Saudi Arabia
Trump characterised the discussion as "excellent" and noted a mutual desire for peace
He emphasised the importance of halting the ongoing conflict
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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Friday said that the time to dissolve the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group has “long come,” as he held talks with OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu in Baku
“The head of state stated that the time has long come to abolish the OSCE Minsk Group
which had completely failed in resolving the former Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
and reiterated that Armenia should also take steps in this regard,” said a statement by the Azerbaijani presidency following the talks
Expressing that Aliyev congratulated Sinirlioglu on his appointment as the OSCE’s head
the statement said the talks included an exchange of views on various areas of cooperation between Azerbaijan and the OSCE
Sinirlioglu was quoted saying that the South Caucasus is one of the key regions on the OSCE’s agenda
conveying his congratulations on the completion of the text of the peace deal between Baku and Yerevan on March 13
“Sinirlioğlu touched upon the cooperation projects implemented by the OSCE with Azerbaijan,” it added
aimed to facilitate the resolution of the Karabakh conflict
when the Armenian military occupied Karabakh -- a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan -- and seven adjacent regions
Most of the territory was liberated by Azerbaijan during a 44-day war in the fall of 2020
which ended after a Russian-brokered peace agreement that opened the door to normalization and demarcation talks
Azerbaijan established full sovereignty in Karabakh after separatist forces in the region surrendered
Despite reaching a consensus on a peace agreement last month
both Baku and Yerevan have accused each other of cross-border attacks since then
Vladimir Putin didn’t need to launch an invasion to put a stranglehold on Belarus
From using the country as a launchpad for his full-scale invasion of Ukraine to stashing Russian nuclear weapons on its soil to deepening trade ties
Putin has made Belarus less part of Moscow’s orbit and more a full-fledged state in his reconstituted fantasy Soviet empire.
And the Russian ruler has no plans to relinquish his grip.
Cue Belarus’ next rigged presidential election
as massive anti-regime protests rocked Minsk amid accusations of election rigging by longtime authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko
Putin’s public backing proved instrumental to keeping the Belarusian ruler in power
Lukashenko responded to the protests by carrying out a massive crackdown to crush dissent and opposition, sparking an exodus of dissidents from Belarus to countries around the world.
But forget Lukashenko for a moment: Activists worry Belarus might not get a chance at democracy again until Putin is no longer in charge in Moscow
“[Putin] knows how to manipulate Lukashenko,” said Art Balenok
a Minsk-born activist now living in Austria
Lukashenko has said that this month’s election will not involve abuse or political pressure. In reality, however, the man long regarded as Europe’s last dictator has stifled all viable political dissent
and now looks set to cruise to a seventh consecutive term in office.
Some members of the Belarusian opposition are telling supporters to boycott the election in protest
Meanwhile, the optimism from 2020 — when Lukashenko appeared genuinely threatened and millions likely voted for now-exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya — is nowhere to be found.
once you start getting into political issues
it’s very easy to lose everything,” said Aleś Alachnovič
This election “is not [the] time for Belarusian people to go to the streets, to uprise visibly, because you know repressions are too high,” Tsikhanouskaya said at POLITICO’s P28 event in Brussels in December
“Every time in Belarus people are detained
The state released more than 200 political prisoners in 2024, according to the Minsk-based Viasna Human Rights Centre, but around 1,250 are still jailed. Critics say the releases were designed to sway voters and allay Western sanctions.
But an embattled Lukashenko turned to Putin for a lifeline.
they were instrumental in enabling Lukashenko and keeping him in power,” said Thomas Graham
senior director for Russia on the National Security Council during the George W
Graham now works at the Council on Foreign Relations
Belarus, which was once viewed as a “strategic buffer” between Russia and the West
is now firmly aligned with its larger neighbor
Advocates say it’s hard to imagine a democratic Belarus as long as Putin remains in the picture.
“You’re certainly not going to see any softening of positions while Putin is still president of Russia,” said Graham
per the Belarus Ministry of Foreign Affairs
That dependence has only increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Pulling the country away from Russia’s sphere of influence
could be painful — but it’s been done before
all other Central and Eastern European countries have already reoriented their econom[ies] from Russia to the West,” he said
But democracy in Belarus shouldn’t be based on alliances with either the East or the West
the Brussels-based representative for international and European cooperation in Tsikhanouskaya’s United Transitional Cabinet in exile
to say that we would have a president that will be supported by the people of Belarus
not by the Kremlin or by Brussels or by Washington,” he said
“I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he’s done a terrible job,” Trump told NBC’s Kristen Welker
A Russian attack on Kyiv early Thursday killed at least 12 people and injured over 70
Natalya Chernyshova received funding from the British Academy during 2020-2022
Queen Mary University of London provides funding as a member of The Conversation UK
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Trump and his negotiators would do well to ponder why previous attempts to restrain Russia and secure a lasting peace for Ukraine did not succeed
This war did not start when shells began to rain on Kyiv in February 2022. Russia had already been waging an undeclared war on its neighbour for nearly eight years in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas
where pro-Russian proxy forces have been stoking up trouble in the border regions of Luhansk and Donetsk
Attempts to end the fighting there were made in September 2014 and February 2015
when Russia and Ukraine signed ceasefire agreements during negotiations in Minsk
Both sets of Minsk agreements proved to be non-starters. The fighting in the region rumbled on until it culminated in Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The accords stored problems for the future
The first Minsk protocols were signed in 2014 by Russia, Ukraine, separatists from Donbas and representatives from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The agreement provided for an immediate ceasefire monitored by the OSCE
the withdrawal of “foreign mercenaries” from Ukraine and the establishment of a demilitarised buffer zone
But Moscow also insisted that Kyiv grant temporary “special status” to the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, the two separatist regions in Donbas. Instead of helping Ukraine regain control over its eastern territories, the agreement allowed the Russia-backed rebels to hold local elections and legalised them as a party to the conflict
The ceasefire collapsed within days of signing. The provisions that sought to demarcate the lines of the conflict and give Ukraine back control over its eastern border were not observed by the rebels
and fighting intensified during the winter
With the death toll rising, the leaders of France and Germany rushed to broker a fresh round of negotiations in February 2015. The resulting accords, which were known as Minsk-2
Russia and its proxy militants in Donbas immediately and repeatedly violated its terms
Moscow continued to deny its involvement in eastern Ukraine
while stepping up armed assistance to the rebels
Kyiv was saddled with peace terms that were impossible to implement unless Ukraine was prepared to throw away its sovereignty. Minsk-2 stipulated that the “special status” of the eastern separatist regions was to become permanent
and that the Ukrainian constitution was to be amended to allow for “decentralisation” of power from Kyiv to the rebel regions
These regions were to be granted autonomy in financial matters
responsibility for their stretch of the border with Russia
and the right to conclude foreign agreements and hold referenda
To undercut Ukrainian independence further
a neutrality clause inserted into its constitution would effectively bar the country’s entry into Nato
Understandably, no one in Kyiv rushed to implement these self-destructive terms. In an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel in 2023
Volodymyr Zelensky said that when he became Ukraine’s president in 2019 and examined Minsk-2
he “did not recognise any desire in the agreements to allow Ukraine its independence”
Zelensky’s comment points to the fundamental flaw of the Minsk-2 agreement. Its western brokers failed to recognise that Russian war aims were irreconcilable with Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow’s objective from the start was to use Donbas to destabilise the government in Kyiv and gain control over Ukraine
The existential differences between Ukraine and Russia that plagued the Minsk agreements remain today
Ukraine has demonstrated its resolve to defend its sovereignty
while Russia’s invasion in 2022 testifies to its determination to squash Ukrainian resolve
The timing of the attack so close to the seventh anniversary of Minsk-2 adds grim emphasis to that point
This clash of objectives must be addressed head-on in any peace negotiations
The only way to secure lasting peace in Europe is to avoid rewarding the aggressor and punishing its victim
The Kremlin has already openly declared that it sees Trump-led brokerage as the west’s acknowledgement of Russian strategic superiority. It needs to be disabused of this notion. As argued by Nataliya Bugayova
a fellow at the Institute for the Study of War
there can be no ambiguity or middle ground on the subject of Ukrainian sovereignty
It must be protected and backed by security guarantees
the Trump administration has shown little understanding of this
A blaze broke out on August 16 on the decommissioned aircraft carrier
which was turned into a tourist attraction in China more than a decade ago
The fire was extinguished roughly 24 hours later
according to state-run Chinese National Radio
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FILE - Belarus police arrest journalist Raman Pratasevich
The three officials are accused of ordering the plane carrying a dissident blogger to make an unplanned landing in the Belarus capital of Minsk
leading to the arrest of Raman Pratasevich
a Belarussian blogger who was living in exile in Lithuania at the time
the Ryanair Flight FR4978 was traveling from Athens
to the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius and was in Belarus airspace
about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the Lithuanian border
when it was told to change direction and turn toward Minsk
the Belarusian flight controllers told the pilots there was a bomb threat against the jetliner and ordered them to land in Minsk
The Belarusian military scrambled a MiG-29 fighter jet in an apparent attempt to make the crew to comply with the order
The prosecutors in Poland said in a statement Friday that because the three Belarussian officials are not in Poland
they couldn’t present them with the charges and have issued a search warrant for them
They are also seeking a European arrest warrant
they identified the three men only by their first names and initials as Leonid C.
an air controller in charge at Minsk airport at the time
the head of the Belarus State Security Committee
The three are charged with using a false bomb threat to divert the plane and violating the freedom of the people on board
The prosecutors said their case was based on recordings from the plane’s cockpit and flight recorders
as well as on the testimonies from the pilots and witnesses
The aim of the diversion was to arrest Pratasevich
Western countries said the plane’s diversion was tantamount to hijacking and imposed strong sanctions against Lukashenko and Belarus
the three officials could face up to five years in a Polish prison
Russia’s UN ambassador on Monday criticized the failure to implement the Minsk agreements of 2015
saying their collapse contributed to the ongoing instability in Ukraine
Speaking at a UN Security Council meeting marking the 10th anniversary of the resolution endorsing the agreements
Vassily Nebenzia said the accords were meant to restore stability in eastern Ukraine but were ultimately undermined
“The hope for a lasting peace that emerged when the agreements were signed never materialized,” he said
adding that the accords — meant to calm the conflict in eastern Ukraine after Russia took over Crimea in early 2014 — had become synonymous with “failure” and “deception.”
He argued that Kyiv had no intention of fulfilling the agreements and accused Ukrainian authorities of obstructing negotiations
He also cited statements from former Ukrainian officials reportedly showing that they viewed the accords as a way to buy time rather than a binding commitment
Nebenzia also claimed that Western countries used the agreements as a “smokescreen” to arm Ukraine
citing past comments by former European leaders suggesting the deals were never meant to be fully implemented
The Russian envoy asserted that Ukraine’s leadership missed opportunities to resolve the crisis through diplomacy and instead pursued confrontation
He also suggested that Western nations ignored early signs of Kyiv’s unwillingness to implement the accords
aimed to de-escalate the conflict in eastern Ukraine
by granting special status to certain regions and establishing a ceasefire
the agreements were never fully implemented
with both sides blaming each other for violations
Russia’s 2014 takeover of Crimea is viewed as illegal by the UN General Assembly
Some analysts call it a precursor for the current Ukraine war
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine sharply escalated on Feb
2022 — nearly three years ago — when Moscow launched what it calls a “special military operation.” Kyiv and its allies condemned the move as an unprovoked invasion
Nebenzia suggested that the recent shift in US leadership under President Donald Trump could present new diplomatic opportunities to end the conflict
He called for lessons to be learned from the failure of the Minsk process and warned that ignoring them could lead to further instability
The Security Council session came as fighting in Ukraine continues
and also follows Trump discussing the Ukraine war last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin
The head of state said this during the session of the 50th Ambrosetti international forum
part of Europe supported this trap of Russia’s
The Minsk deal is the worst that can happen
something that must in no way be revisited
And that’s what Russia did," Zelensky said
He noted that while Minsk agreements remained valid
Ukraine was in a gray zone for everyone – not only for its population
"What kind of investor will invest in Ukraine
because it is not clear what will happen to Ukraine next
because there is no 100% support from Europe
and there was no 100% understanding of what would happen to Russia," the president said
and prepared for a full-scale invasion should Ukraine choose its own path
the Minsk deal cannot be compared with real security guarantees because the Minsk deal is a frozen conflict
It was difficult for everyone to implement it
I tried to do what the President should do – I came (to participate - ed.) in the Normandy format meeting
And we agreed with him that there would be a ceasefire
I went through several ceasefires with Putin
and after a while they started killing us on the contact line
I called him back and said: we agreed on a ceasefire
But time passed and they started killing us again
so there must be no frozen conflict," Zelensky emphasized
ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the Minsk Agreements ceased to exist as Russia recognized the independence of the "DPR/LPR" entities in eastern Ukraine
While citing and using any materials on the Internet
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was inaugurated during a visit by Mohammad Atabak
The opening ceremony also featured Mohammad Ali Dehghani-Dehnavi
Deputy Minister and Head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO)
the minister and TPO head held a meeting with Iranian business representatives in Belarus
where proposals were made to facilitate trade between the two countries
Photo: Iranian Industry Minister Mohammad Atabak cuts the ribbon at the opening ceremony of a trade center in Minsk