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Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe to: Volume 4 - 2022 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.1037350 This article is part of the Research TopicInteractions among Climates of Ocean BasinsView all 8 articles The onset of the rainy season in monsoonal climates is a key element for the development of water related activities while in western and northwestern part of the country in begins between early and mid-July Previous studies indicate that it depends on the meridional position of the eastern Pacific Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) By mean of analyses of the Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux the low level atmospheric dynamics in the tropical Americas is analyzed to establish the temporal evolution of inter ocean moisture fluxes that lead to the onset of the summer rainy season in southern Mexico The onset of the rainy season depends on the longitudinal position of the center of maximum convective activity in the ITCZ which induces a quasi-stationary low-level cyclonic circulation that results in moisture fluxes to the Mexican Pacific coast and rains The Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) is a mechanism that modulates inter ocean basin moisture fluxes into the eastern Pacific ITCZ and the location of the maximum convective activity in this system We propose that the sequence of events that leads to the onset of the rainy season in southern Mexico is: (i) an episode of strong moisture flux from the Caribbean Sea into the eastern Pacific ITCZ (ii) a region of intense convective activity in the ITCZ that triggers a quasi-stationary low-level cyclonic circulation which in turn induces moisture flux into southern Mexico and (iii) the development of convective activity in southern Mexico that determines the onset of the rainy season The intensification of the CLLJ from June to July also results in a westward displacement of the region of maximum convection within the ITCZ that leads to changes in the atmospheric circulations and moisture fluxes that determine the onset of the rainy season at higher latitudes in the Mexican Pacific coast which affect the moisture flux into southern Mexico and the characteristics of the rainy season depending on the intensity and position of convective activity in the ITCZ the associated south to north moisture flux from the tropical eastern Pacific to Mexico may vary and consequently the characteristics of tropical convective activity along its Pacific coast The sequence of events that may determine the onset of the rainy season include the intensification of the inter ocean moisture flux associated with the CLLJ the objective of the present study is to document such sequence of dynamical processes that contribute to the seasonal evolution of the summer rainy season in the southern Mexico region where q is the specific humidity (kg/kg), V is the horizontal wind field, g is the gravity constant, and p defines a pressure level. VIMF is calculated using daily ERA-5 data for the 1979–2018 period [Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2017] Changes in PW induced by VIMF convergence are important to examine episodes of intense tropical convection in the ITCZ and in the tropical Americas (Durán-Quesada et al., 2017) Daily PW data is obtained using the atmospheric moisture content between 1,000 and 300 hPa by means of the expression: 2) considers the entire atmospheric column the largest contribution to PW comes from moisture convergence at low atmospheric levels One of the most popular methods to estimate the onset of the rainy season is the so-called method of “anomalous accumulation” (Liebmann et al., 2007), which is based on the sum of daily precipitation with a positive slope. This method has the advantage that it does not set a threshold for rainfall that should occur in a certain period (Tourigny and Jones, 2009) compared to other methods that require defining magnitude and duration of rainfall for a certain number of days it may be applied independent of the place where the onset of the rainy season is to be calculated The difference between two consecutive 10 days composites corresponding to conditions before and after the onset of the rainy season is used to show the enhancement of the CLLJ the changes in the eastern Pacific ITCZ and the related moisture fluxes The CLLJ exit region results in low-level convergence that generates a zone of intense precipitation of more than 16 mm day−1 Although the CLLJ is present throughout most of summer when it extends to eastern Pacific transporting moisture and contributing to the formation and intensification of the ITCZ where precipitation rate is around 16 mm day−1 Climatology (1979–2018) of the June to September mean winds at 925 hPa (m s−1) (vectors) and precipitation rate (mm day−1) (shades of green and green contours) The VIMF only extends from the Caribbean Sea to 95°W The magnitude of the convergence of the VIMF off the Caribbean coast also diminishes Monthly mean VIMF fields (kg m−1 s−1) (vectors) between 1000 and 700 hPa convergence of VIMF (mm day−1) (shades of red to blue) and PW (mm) (dark green contours) for (A) May Hovmöller diagram of OLR (<220 Watt m−2) (shades of yellow and red) VIMF every 5 days (vectors) and the moisture convergence produced by the zonal component of the VIMF (contour interval −5 mm day−1) along 10–12°N between April and September for the year (A) 2000 and (B) 2005 The dashed green lines correspond to the period range when intense tropical convection in the ITCZ begins its westward displacement and the onset of the summer rainy season in southern Mexico takes place when the zonal acceleration of the VIMF related to the CLLJ lead to moisture convergence and an episode of intense convection in the ITCZ between 90–100°W the rainy season in southern Mexico began around Julian day 169 which may be consider a late onset since it usually occurs during the 1st week of June summer rains in southern Mexico begin when intense tropical convective activity in the ITCZ around 90°W occurs enhances the ITCZ as a moisture source for the northeastern tropical Pacific region episodes of CLLJ acceleration result in intense zonal VIMF from the Caribbean into the eastern Pacific and recurrent bursts of tropical convection in the ITCZ As the deep tropical convection extends westward summer rains in southern Mexico and parts of Central America tend to diminish between 85 and 100°W The enhancement of the ITCZ and the westward migration of the maximum deep tropical convection along 10–12°N may be traced following the lowest values of OLR. From May through September, OLR is generally above 230 Watt m−2 over the eastern Caribbean Sea (70–60°W), indicating weak convective activity (Figure 4) In the western Caribbean Sea (85–83°W) with OLR values below 200 Watt m−2 throughout summer Intense convective activity in the eastern Pacific ITCZ (105–95°W) is observed from June through September The corresponding minimum in OLR is around 205 Watt m−2 and its longitudinal position migrates from east to west between June and July and back to the east between August and September the mean OLR along the eastern tropical Pacific is usually above 230 Watt m−2 which corresponds to the absence intense convective activity in June intense convection develops along the ITCZ and the minimum values of OLR are around 98.75°W the minimum in OLR (203 Watt m−2) migrates westward to 103.75°W due to the enhancement of the CLLJ along this latitude the CLLJ weakens and the minimum in OLR (205 Watt m−2) shifts eastwards to around 101.25°W the OLR minimum (205 Watt m−2) is located between 101.75 and 98.75°W Climatology (1979–2018) of the zonal profile of monthly mean OLR (Watt m−2) along 10–12°N Figure 5. (A) Changes in VIMF (vectors) (kg m−1 s−1), in the divergence of VIMF (mm day−1) (shades from brown to green) and in the precipitation rate (mm day-1) positive (blue) and negative (red) from May to June. (B) Simulated low-level wind and pressure fields of the quasi-stationary response to a convective forcing (red circle) located off the equator, as in Gill (1980) The westward displacement in maximum convective activity in the ITCZ leads to a new quasi-stationary response in the VIMF field that shows as a cyclonic circulation at low levels further west The intensified CLLJ also increases VIMF convergence in the jet exit region and results in a maximum in precipitation over the Caribbean coast allowing the VIMF convergence to retreat to the eastern part of the ITCZ south of Mexico and west of Central America Figure 6. As in Figure 5A Blue dots indicate the location of the CLLJ exit region and the eastern part of the ITCZ The effect of the CLLJ over the ITCZ constitutes an example on how the inter ocean moisture transport results in the modulation of the annual cycle of tropical convection in the eastern Pacific, even when this atmospheric teleconnection does not necessarily involve large scale quasi-stationary waves, as those discussed by Karoly and Hoskins (1983) Intense convective activity usually occurs in the ITCZ around 12°N prior to the onset of the rainy season in southern Mexico When a pulse in VIMF from the Caribbean Sea enhances deep convection in the ITCZ (moisture source region) the resulting diabetic heating triggers a low-level cyclonic circulation that transports moisture into southern Mexico (moisture sink region) The bursts of intense convection in the ITCZ are recurrent but in late May there is enough atmospheric moisture convergence in southern Mexico as to produce continuous rains that correspond to the beginning of the summer rains with pulses in Caribbean leading those in the eastern tropical Pacific The largest coherence is in the low frequency part of the spectrum reflecting the slow effect of the intensification of the CLLJ that extends over the eastern Pacific during summer The squared coherence between u925 at these locations in various frequencies is also significant indicating that accelerations (decelerations) in the zonal flow across Central America acts as an inter ocean basin atmospheric teleconnection it is confirmed that the changes in the low-level zonal winds originate in the Caribbean region and extend downstream to approximately 120°W in about 5 days Modified time-longitude diagrams for the high frequency (<1/10 days) variations in the zonal wind at 925 hPa (u925) along 12°N when the reference point is located at: (A) 80°W there are also numerous parcels that come from the Caribbean Sea into the ITCZ to produce episodes of intense convection These parcels tend to cross from the Caribbean Sea into the eastern Pacific along the so-called Isthmus of Papagayo in Central America Backward trajectory analyses (dotted lines) starting 5 days prior to the onset of the rainy season in southern Mexico 10°N region as a reference point (black circle) The colors indicate meters above sea level (masl) The topography in the tropical Americas is in shades of gray The forced quasi-stationary Rossby wave (centered at 123°W 20°N) induces southwesterly moisture flux that convergences in southern Mexico to produce precipitation for the beginning of the summer rainy season Temporal change in the moisture flux at 925 hPa (vectors) its convergence (shades of green to brown) and precipitation (positive lines in blue and negative lines in red) between the average conditions 10 days before and 10 days after the onset of the rainy season in southern Mexico The black solid line corresponds to the total OLR below 220 Watt m−2) for the 20 days period the ITCZ displaces further north and with warmer SSTs in the Pacific off the coast of northwestern Mexico and warmer air temperatures and more moisture near the surface deep tropical convection occurs in the North American Monsoon region Differences (July minus June) in: surface (10 m) winds (vectors) SSTs (shades from blue to red) and OLR (Watt m−2) (green solid lines for positive OLR changes and green dashed lines for negative OLR changes) moisture convergences and availability result in an increase of PW that allows the onset of the summer rainy season in northwestern Mexico the dynamics of the North American Monsoon could be influence by the seasonal evolution of the eastern Pacific ITCZ and the intensity of the moisture flux from the Caribbean as well as the regional air-sea interactions during the boreal summer season The summer rainy season along the Mexican Pacific region is largely influenced by low-level atmospheric moisture fluxes modulated by large scale conditions (e.g. forced quasi-stationary circulations or SSTs) The onset of the rainy season in southern Mexico takes place in late May - early June and progresses over time to northwestern Mexico until early July The intensity of the CLLJ and convective activity in the eastern Pacific ITCZ are key elements in the establishment of moisture flux to Mexico and consequently in the onset of the rainy season it has been shown that as the CLLJ intensifies more moisture is transported from the Caribbean Sea to the eastern Pacific making convective activity in the ITCZ stronger A more intense zonal moisture flux from the Caribbean shifts the moisture convergence to the west and the associated strong convective activity in the ITCZ modifying the tropical and subtropical low-level atmospheric circulations This is observed in the transition from June to July when the CLLJ reaches its maximus intensity and tropical convection off the Pacific coast of Central America weakens The ITCZ constitutes a mean to trigger a cyclonic quasi-stationary circulation corresponding to a Rossby wave in the tropical-subtropical region that modifies the mean low-level atmospheric flow that brings moisture close to southern Mexico that initiates the summer rainy season the sequence of events that results in the onset of the rainy season in southern Mexico is: (i) enhancement of the CLLJ and increased inter ocean moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea to the eastern Pacific (ii) stronger moisture convergence in the eastern Pacific ITCZ and deep tropical convection that acts as a heat convective forcing that (iii) triggers a low-level cyclonic quasi-stationary circulation with enhanced southerly moisture flux into the southern part of Mexico and (iv) enhanced moisture convergence along Mexican Pacific coast that establishes the summer rains regime As the most intense tropical convection in the ITCZ shifts westward the induced subtropical cyclone weakens the dominant Pacific Subtropical High allowing more atmospheric moisture around the Baja Peninsula favoring the development of tropical convection in northwestern Mexico This may be an important element to include in the dynamics of the North American Monsoon It is clear that the dynamics of the eastern Pacific ITCZ is not solely controlled by the moisture flux from the Caribbean but its influence cannot be neglected in numerous aspects of the annual cycle of climate of Mesoamerica The interannual variability in the eastern Pacific ITCZ affects the onset of the rainy season in Mexico and Central America The tendency for the ITCZ to remain closer to the equator could be the factor that maintains this moisture source more distant from Mexico than normal not only because anomalously warm SSTs remain closer to the equator but also because an anomalously strong CLLJ that tends to maintain the ITCZ further west Exploring the effects of ENSO on the onset of the rainy season in Mexico and its summer climate is an interesting problem of interannual climate variability that may prove to be useful on seasonal regional climate forecasts Determining the onset of the rainy season is a great value for several water related activities The present study shows that the inter ocean basin moisture fluxes are important factors that determine not only the onset of the rainy season but also variations in the summer rains in southern Mexico The author proposed the methodology followed in the study and implemented the necessary algorithms for the various calculations The second author tested the proposed ideas about the onset of the rainy season as part of her M.Sc She also prepared most of the final version of the figures VM: proposal of a mechanism that relates climate variability over the Caribbean Sea with climate variability in the eastern tropical Pacific hypothesis on how enhancement in the ITCZ leads to convective activity in Mexico SD: development for a criteria on the onset on the rainy season in southern Mexico analysis in the shift of maxima in convective activity in the ITCZ and the areas of rain along the Mexican Pacific coast and development of qualitative model on how variations in the CLLJ affect climate in western Mexico All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version This study was supported by Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia Project title On the role of easterly waves in the Intra-Americas Seas and CVU1084139 Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico provide facilities for the development of the study The technical support of Gustavo Vázquez is highly appreciated Scientific discussions with Eduardo Herrera The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations Any product that may be evaluated in this article 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This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited in accordance with accepted academic practice distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms *Correspondence: Víctor Magaña, dmljdG9ybXJAdW5hbS5teA== Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher 94% of researchers rate our articles as excellent or goodLearn more about the work of our research integrity team to safeguard the quality of each article we publish A CNN Opinion piece discussed the misuse of Big Data Marco Lübbecke says sophisticated data analysis can save lives '+n.escapeExpression("function"==typeof(o=null!=(o=r(e,"eyebrowText")||(null!=l?r(l,"eyebrowText"):l))?o:n.hooks.helperMissing)?o.call(null!=l?l:n.nullContext||{},{name:"eyebrowText",hash:{},data:t,loc:{start:{line:28,column:63},end:{line:28,column:78}}}):o)+" \n '+(null!=(o=c(e,"if").call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2PreText"):l,{name:"if",hash:{},fn:n.program(32,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:63,column:20},end:{line:63,column:61}}}))?o:"")+"\n"+(null!=(o=(c(e,"ifAll")||l&&c(l,"ifAll")||n.hooks.helperMissing).call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Text"):l,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Link"):l,{name:"ifAll",hash:{},fn:n.program(34,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:64,column:20},end:{line:70,column:30}}}))?o:"")+"