If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up for the BizNews channel here I shared data on Eskom's falling residual demand We South Africans are gradually breaking free from Eskom's grip on electricity supply This doesn't mean we're consuming less; instead we're sourcing more power from alternatives like solar panels on our roofs I invite you to read last week's article first I'll unveil several observations and trends that have captured my attention Solar power and other renewable energy resources are eating into Eskom's market share most people don't notice renewables' impact it is adopted at an exponential growth rate The changes can be illustrated with "S" curves that track the adoption rates The following graph shows many new-technology items vs time S-curves also describe the demise of legacy technology—a descending S-curve I studied the rate of decline of Eskom's Total Annual Demand I looked at the year-on-year decrease and the gaps between successive years I also sought the maximum hourly demand for each year and the gaps between them follow a growth sequence too The same trends emerged for the average hourly demand and daytime minima The annual and overnight minimum demands initially tracked downwards for a few years they rose in 2024 after load shedding ended we consume more electricity during the day and less at night Eskom is asked for less energy during the day This can cause diurnal demand inversion for Eskom where more power is drawn at night than during the day (see my previous article) So I checked daytime and overnight demand minima the last time we had a demand inversion was New Year's Day 2021 These are a clear sign of solar power's impact and we only have four years of data points The sample size of annual consumption declines is small Yet the decline can develop quickly and has far-reaching consequences My thesis is that we have begun a definitive shift away from Eskom power It's driven partly by the rollout of renewable energy plants Eskom's price increases are boosting solar uptake The growth rate of the inter-year gap is approximately 150% The South African energy sector is on the cusp of a rapid This will severely affect Eskom's Generation Consider the sequence of the Total Residual Demand (see Part 1 of this article here) The data from 2021 through 2024 shows inter-year gaps of 0.82 TWh These figures represent the differences between years at a 150% growth rate is likely to comprise the tail-end from 2029 which is close to the 201 TWh we consumed in 2024 An exponential growth rate is characterised by small initial changes – 4 the final steps appear sudden and unexpected I would not be surprised by a dramatic demand drop in 2029 and 2030 especially in the latter half of 2029 – just 5 years away the NTCSA will transmit ±32 TWh during 2031 Wheeling contracts may supply a substantial part of this NTCSA is the National Transmission Company of South Africa How can such significant changes occur in such a short time and battery) power is replacing grid energy They're finding they can provide sufficient uptime their demand for renewable sources increases generate power on-site at the consumption points Renewables will not immediately displace all of Eskom's demand the battery inverter provides the baseload power Eskom can supplement the customer's battery Off-grid consumers install sufficient solar capacity to meet winter demand they'll use a small genset to top up their battery South Africa had about 7000 MW of solar plants installed An unknown number of smaller plants were installed were installed during 2024 (Click on the image for updated data) Renewable plant costs are gradually decreasing equipment prices in USD are about 20% of what they were a decade ago That's helping to speed up SA's transition Solar panels and lithium-ion batteries have seen steep price declines prices drop by 19% for every doubling of capacity This promising reduction rate continues apace (as shown in the following charts) Figures 9 and 10 illustrate Wright's Law, also known as the Learning Curve This principle states that for every doubling of manufactured goods their cost will fall by a constant percentage the cost for batteries is around $100 per kWh at the cell level although prices are significantly lower in China The price of lithium-ion batteries fell by 97% since 1991 Annual USA electricity generation from all sectors (1950-2020) Renewables became the second-most prevalent U.S. electricity source in 2020 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review Note: This graph shows electricity net generation in all sectors (electric power, industrial, commercial, and residential) and includes both utility-scale and small-scale (customer-sited, less than 1 megawatt) solar. In 2008 the USA consumed a total of ±4 trillion kWh of electricity. At its peak, coal-fired plants generated 50% of this. From 2008 to 2020, coal lost its dominance and retracted to a 19% share. Thus coal lost 60% of its market share in the USA in the 12 years up to 2020. In a previous section, I mentioned the sequence of the Total Residual Demand and inter-year gaps. That trend leads to accelerating decreases from year to year. I believe Eskom has passed its apex generation level. It could now face a rapid decline as coal power did in the USA since 2008. For a decade, Eskom has been an unreliable supplier. It has also forced rapidly rising prices on South Africa. Thus renewable energy, especially solar power, has stepped into the breach. Solar power's lead can be seen in the change of day and night electricity consumption. Usually, we use more grid-supplied energy during the day than at night. I expect Eskom to experience more days of diurnal demand inversion, which are markers of solar power's impact. Furthermore, Eskom could experience a near zero-demand hour by late 2028 and many zero-demand hours in 2029. South Africans will add more solar power plants in 2025. For Eskom's energy consumption to grow, we need economic growth using their energy. Moreover, Eskom's demand growth rate would have to exceed the solar addition rate. That's unlikely to happen. Now, solar plants are an integral part of many developments. Besides, Eskom will keep on raising prices, which puts consumers off. Some say we must build more power capacity to meet the increased demand when the economy grows again. Yet, developers already add renewable plants to their projects. Thus they avert the need for centralised generation plants. The NTCSA will almost certainly dispatch less electricity in 2025 than in 2024. The question is: How much less? I expect Eskom to supply 8-9TWh less in 2025 vs 2024. Daytime hours should become off-peak tariff hours. Eskom should change its rate structure to charge higher tariffs at night, at least during summer. During the summer, Eskom will sell more electricity at night than during the day. So it will earn more, overall, with higher overnight tariffs. Besides, low daytime tariffs will allow Eskom to compete better with solar pricing. Eskom must not raise connection and energy costs. Raising the connection (service) costs will chase customers away. Instead, to improve sales, they should remove the connection costs and roll them into the energy tariff. However, I realise that the consultation process will delay a decision. Thus, it will be too late when they're at last allowed to make the changes. Winter consumption will become a significant problem. Eskom must maintain generation capacity to supply this. Meanwhile, summer consumption will vaporise. Thus, Eskom must amortise the annual cost over quickly receding energy units. Eskom needs recompense to maintain capacity even while many plants are idle most of the year. Eskom should earnestly consider how to lower costs. Alternatively, it could raise prices. However, with higher prices, customers will use less Eskom energy, and then it will need to raise prices again. That would create a death spiral. Solar with batteries is a distributed, decentralised system. You can install it on your roof or yard and go off-grid. You can run your operation from your battery inverter. Install a small generator to trickle-charge your battery during overcast days. When a solar plant provides a significant part of a consumer's energy needs, the grid connection costs become irksome. The fixed cost pushes the cost of a unit of electricity up, at times to ridiculous heights. This drives customers to disconnect from the grid. In contrast, coal, nuclear, wind, and solar farms need a centralised system to distribute their energy. However, centralisation and decentralisation are opposing concepts. Solar power plants are decentralised generators, which don't need a grid. Combining centralised and decentralised systems raises costs. Eskom's plans to increase the connection costs for low-consumption clients is helpful. It clarifies the actual cost of the centralised system. It will enable customers to choose between systems with a precise price for both. Solar and battery prices are constantly decreasing. Thus, solar power plants will eventually generate most of South Africa's energy. Only a tiny fraction of today's energy consumption will remain to be transmitted, which will not justify the cost of maintaining the grid. As more solar is installed, Eskom's outlying lines on the grid's fringes will be used less. This is most visible in rural areas, but even urban lines occasionally break down. Then, Eskom will not replace them as they're not financially viable. The reduced demand will be felt in the core of the grid. Gradually, the HV transmission lines will carry less electricity. Maintaining the current grid will be too costly if distributed solar plants erode grid transmission. Low traffic on the grid depresses income from energy sales. Thus maintaining the grid is not financially justifiable. If the sketched trends hold, the grid will be used much less by 2030 than now. However, South Africa's new Electricity Regulation Amendment Act (ERA Act) came into effect on 1 January, 2025. The law aims to create a more competitive electricity market. Besides, it aims to help the country transition to clean energy. Whilst the ERA Act probably won't boost Eskom's generation fortunes, it may help to save the grid. The expected grid deterioration increases risk for any contract that depends on Eskom's services after 2030. Eskom may not be able to deliver the expected service. It's worth keeping this in mind when concluding contracts. IPPs distributing through the grid will find Transmission & Distribution costs significantly increase their energy's price. They will find it hard to compete with distributed, on-site, solar plants. Their noon-generated energy will be curtailed. However, battery plants adjoining the solar farms could make the difference. Cannibalisation of solar farms is a known phenomenon. Rooftop solar cannibalises the solar farms because rooftop solar is always used first. At the moment, solar farms compete with Eskom pricing, and thus the farms win. But this will end in 4 to 5 years when distributed solar plants become an overwhelming presence. Then, solar farms will be competing with rooftop solar. Solar farms' financial position will rapidly deteriorate. Generating electricity to sell through the grid may not be sustainable. It's helpful to put your renewable plant close to your client to minimise transmission risks. Thus, you can maintain the transmission lines yourself if need be. Eskom believes it cannot significantly reduce electricity costs. About half of the cost of a unit of electricity is in transmission and distribution. These costs are part of the expensive consumer-level pricing. So, even if Eskom can generate cheaper electricity, it won't make much difference. Grid-connected clients are reducing their consumption. Many can generate cheap power on their roofs. Some companies may have several local facilities. A particular facility may have little capacity to generate energy on-site, while another has excess space. These companies may wheel energy between facilities. Large power users may consider establishing their facilities near a solar or wind farm. For example, consider putting your factory next to a solar plant in the Northern Cape if you want power from a solar farm. Early indications project a steadily decreasing demand for Eskom energy over the next 6-8 years. Solar power will displace Eskom's demand. Yet, in the coming year, Eskom may recover some demand lost during load shedding. I will regularly update my projections. From summer 2028/9, near-zero-demand hours will occur. This may destabilise the grid and cause supply interruptions. Supply interruptions provide an opportunity for theft. If sections of a low-traffic line are stolen, Eskom will likely not replace them. Damage from any other cause will also not be repaired. Fixing the line would not be financially justified. This will force late-adopting consumers along the line to go off-grid. Beware of agreements that depend on Eskom services after 2030. Eskom may not be able to provide the services. Check your exposure to any Eskom service beyond 2030 – take appropriate steps. Hopefully I have alerted all concerned to the scenario described in this article. Being prepared should help us avert the worst consequences. Wietze©Partner der Lüneburger Heide GmbHStechinelli Kapelle Wietze©Partner der Lüneburger Heide GmbHJakobsmuschel Stechinelli Kapelle Wietze-Wieckenberg©Partner der Lüneburger Heide GmbHStechinellis Gut in Wieckenberg Wietze©MARKUS TIEMANN MARKUS TIEMANN LUENEBURGAn der Stechinellikapelle in Wieckenberg bei Wietze©Lüneburger Heide GmbH/Dennis KarjettaIn the picturesque town of Wieckenberg just 2 km from Wietze,lies a fairy-tale chapel it features stunning Baroque architecture thatis well preserved to this day The fate of the builder - Francesco MariaCapellini (1640 -1694) known as Stechinelli (pronounced Steckinelli) is justas fabulous as the chapel’s interior he came to the courtof Duke Georg Wilhelm von Celle and rose to the rank of Hereditary Postmaster Generalof the Guelph Principalities with the Imperial Free State He acquired legendarywealth and several manors through a livelytrade in wine and cloth and real estate transactions Here you can see aBaroque style pleasure garden aswell as the courtyard gate and the chapel he had built according to his designsin 1692 but whose completion in 1699 he did not live to see is said to have immortalised their 13 children in theceiling paintings.. Wouldyou like to visit the Stechinelli Chapel The chapel is open to visitors on request atthe times indicated Please refer to the notice board at the chapel to see whoyou can contact spontaneously to arrange a viewing At the weekend (except inthe time from 1 to 3 p.m.) you should try to contact the verger by calling 05146-2516 Services usually take place every secondSunday of the month and on secondary church holidays (Easter Monday Forfurther information and requests for guided tours please contact the churchoffice directly by calling 05146-8443 If you follow the sign of the scallopsmussel in Suedheide, you will also reach the Stechinelli chapel in Wieckenberg.Hikers on the Way ofSt. James Pilgrimage can stamp their pilgrimpass here "Onthe trail of the Postmaster " sthe name of the route of a new themed cycle path through the upper Oertzevalley, at the southernmost end of which is the Stechinelli Chapel. Signpostedwith a post horn, cyclists can embark on a fascinating search for traces ofcultural history. Wilseder Berg – The heart of the Lüneburg Heath ansehen23 romantic countryside hotels in Lueneburg Heath If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here South Africa's reliance on Eskom's power is waning More people are turning to solar and wind energy I delve into Eskom's data and reflect on the shift in South Africa's energy market The sequel will discuss the challenges for consumers and Eskom we consumed less Eskom energy (205.90 TWh vs 204.69 TWh) It has successfully reinvigorated many of its troubled power stations Completion work on the Kusile power station supports this positive outlook Its maintenance work is reviving its power stations Eskom idled some stations after completing their maintenance Eskom's maximum hourly Residual Demand in 2024 was 32,043 megawatts (MW) Its total installed generation capacity is 53,089 MW (Power Station Capacity Table It can also draw on 6 gigawatts (GW) of capacity from Independent Power Producers (IPPs) Eskom has a nominal reserve of 65% over and above South Africa's peak demand Eskom's focus on maintenance has improved its Energy Availability Factor (EAF) Therefore SA has a surplus of power supply capacity; in theory Eskom can provide all the megawatts you want consumers can get power elsewhere at a lower cost alternative power options will improve your energy security This is pricing Eskom out of a growing part of the energy market lower-cost sources will take over more of Eskom's market The low-cost sources continue to reduce prices while Eskom increases theirs I assume South Africa is not consuming less energy than in 2021 "Demand" is the total power demanded by the nation The transmission system continuously supplies it to our homes and businesses Many homes and businesses use rooftop solar panels to meet some of their demand or the hourly average demand Eskom needs to provide represents the "rest" of the power supply The Eskom National Control Centre is in Simmerpan They manage demand by dispatching power from various sources Eskom expresses the Residual Demand in MW (megawatts) The NTCSA is the National Transmission Company of South Africa The NTCSA is a subsidiary of Eskom and is responsible for managing and maintaining the grid Wheeling is a process where some IPPs have contracts with large consumers They generate energy specifically for them which is then "wheeled" or transported by the NTCSA to the consumer The independent generators pay the NTCSA a wheeling fee for this transportation IOS (Interruption of Supply) refers to demand-reduction resources managed by Eskom Eskom's Residual Demand has slowly decreased since 2008 I have analysed the hourly Residual Demand data and annual aggregates from the beginning of 2021 Total Energy dispatched by Eskom dropped from 211.96 TWh in 2021 to 201.24 TWh in 2024 (calendar years) load shedding cut deeply into Eskom's energy dispatch Load shedding was less intense in the first quarter of 2024 Eskom power was readily available until a fateful breakdown on January 31 Load shedding was reintroduced for a weekend The load shedding episodes spurred many South Africans to install solar power systems These plants then displaced even more energy that Eskom would otherwise have provided So load shedding caused a shortage of electricity in 2023 it was readily available through most of 2024 monthly average and maximum hourly Residual Demands continued to fall throughout 2024 Yet there is a hint of lost demand recovery I compared the difference in consumption between 2023 and 2024 the monthly average demand decrease (vs 2023) was less than in 2023 (vs 2022) higher monthly minimums in the second half of 2024 further strengthen the case for marginal demand recovery I compiled several tables and charts using Eskom's Residual Demand data set The numbers above show the annual energy consumption My focus is on the change from year to year the third column shows the inter-year gap increasing year by year The last column shows the percentage growth of the gap Table 2 shows Eskom's hourly demand numbers The right half compares these to 2021's values It determines how much capacity Eskom must keep ready Figure 1: Daily Maximum Hourly Energy Demand 14-day moving averages of maximum hourly demand Figure 1 shows the 14-day moving averages of maximum hourly demand for each calendar year are due to reduced demand during the festive season shows a departure from the previous three years This change is partly due to the many solar plants installed in 2023 and 2024 They had a noticeable effect throughout 2024 Solar plant installations will continue in 2025 The turquoise-blue line shows December 2024 and January 2025's daily maximum hourly demand Eskom's demand is seasonal; it typically increases from summer to winter and then declines to summer Winter months exhibit sustained high demand levels the data points for non-winter months will descend Solar panels produce their highest energy in summer Eskom's residual supply follows a counter pattern the differences in summer and winter demand will become more pronounced the blue line shows the daily maximum demand over four years The red curve shows the 365-day moving average Figure 2: Eskom Daily Maximum Demand 2021-2024 The highest demand in 2024 was nearly 6% lower than that of 2021 the annual peak demand occurs in June or July each year's maximum demands fell from the previous year some months of 2022 and 2023 saw increases compared to the prior year every month in 2024 saw a drop in maximum hourly residual demand compared to the same month in 2023 The annual decline from 2023 to 2024 was 972 MW Monthly maxima reductions ranged from 140 MW in June to 2,684 MW in May The impact of rooftop solar plants in South Africa will become more prominent The increase in private solar plants will lower each year's curve the demand for Eskom's power from 3 to 4 PM was 3,770 MW lower than on a similar day last year Figure 4 typifies the pattern when solar power displaces Eskom'sdemand Suppose the solar impact occurs only during the day the demand curve will return to the prior year's level in the evening and overnight if the demand curve settles lower at night it may mean that batteries have stored solar energy to use during the night hours They depict the demand close to the time of the solstices and equinoxes They show Eskom's residual energy demand for every hour of the week Each week is centred around the third Wednesday of the month Each year has a separate line – from 2021 to 2024 Figure 5: 7-Day Demand Curves for Eskom's Hourly Residual Energy Demand South Africa's duck curves are still in their early stages Yet they resemble the initial trends seen elsewhere Diurnal Demand Inversion occurs when more power is used at night than during the day Thus more power is drawn from Eskom at night than during the day When solar power capacity surpasses a threshold we begin seeing frequent diurnal demand inversions the last time we had a demand inversion was New Year's Day from 12 October to the end of 2024 we had eight such events Let me introduce you to two key energy organisations in South Africa NERSA is the National Energy Regulator of South Africa piped gas,and petroleum pipeline industries SAPVIA is the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association It promotes the PV industry as part of the broader renewable energy sector They maintain a record ofrenewable plants larger than 100 kW registered with NERSA SAPVIA notes that South Africa has 10.646 GW of renewable plants these records do not include smaller and residentialsolar systems we expect to see at least 1,300 MW installed the followingyear Eskom estimates that South Africa's total rooftop solar capacity reached 6.17 GW by the end of 2024 both Eskom and SAPVIA are likely underestimating SA's total solar generation capacity remains unknown SAPVIA states South Africans installed 4220 MW of renewable capacity in 2024 we will probably installmore than 3,700 MW of solar generation capacity in 2025 Click here for up-to-date data from SAPVIA use the buttons on the left side of the page to view various graphs I will share my perceived trends and recommendations Wietze currently operates as a project leader He has advised C&I and NPO renewable energy buyers for several years The title of Ir is an abbreviation of 'Ingenieur' which is awarded to MSc graduates at technical/engineering universities in the Netherlands Wietze's alma mater is Wageningen University Wietze avidly follows energy developments around the world and in South Africa he considers how global trends may play out in South Africa Lynnette Wadsworth and Wietze G claimed their second straight Grand Prix Freestyle Adult Amateur Championship at the 2017 US Dressage Finals presented by Adequan®.  (Photo: Susan J “I wasn’t looking for another Friesian when I got the call about Wietze But then I tried him and after 10 minutes I said Little did retired dance teacher Lynnette Wadsworth of Hastings, Fla. (Region 3) know that her now 18-year-old Friesian gelding Wietze G (Rypke x Wijke by Reitse) would carry her to back-to-back victories in the Grand Prix Freestyle Adult Amateur Championship division at the US Dressage Finals presented by Adequan® The pair claimed the Calaveras County Perpetual Trophy (presented by Olva Stewart Pharo) in 2016 and came back to the Alltech Arena to reclaim the title with a top score of 66.417% for their classic rock-themed performance “He was actually quite tense today but I was able to pull him together and make a decent ride out of it I wanted to have a good time because it’s new music for us and it was all about having fun this year,” said Hastings he had all of the upper-level movements already on him but I was barely a Third Level rider So I get this big horse and he can piaffe and passage but I couldn’t get basic movements out of him so I had to rise to the occasion – he’s really taught me how to ride We started together at Third Level and with lots of help from my trainers I’ve been able to get to his level and fun – I couldn’t ask for a better dance partner.” Finishing in reserve was Jennifer Drescher of Frederick (Region 1) riding her 16-year-old Morgan gelding Blue and White Raven (Night Hawk of Rocking M x Four-L Black Magic by Goldenaire Senator G “We’ve also come through the levels together and I’m so lucky to have him,” Drescher noted “He was a superstar and so willing today and I couldn’t be happier.” A tough field of horses and riders competed for Intermediate I Freestyle Open Championship honors and in her first trip to the US Dressage Finals Melissa Taylor of Wellington (Region 3) rode the 12-year-old Dutch Warmblood Ansgar (Special D x Diona by Formateur) to a decisive victory with 74.058% as owner Nicole Polaski watched her gelding earn the win from New York City via livestreaming on the USEF Network “I’d always heard great things about this show and this year the timing worked out for us to come I love the facility and it’s an amazing event,” Taylor explained we needed to work on trusting each other in the show ring and it really took me all season to develop that Just now I felt like he really stepped up at Regionals I was super proud of him today – he’s a hot little tamale who definitely has an opinion of his own so I was pleased that we came together in such a good way.” Region 2) was also pleased with her partnership with Kate Sanders’ nine-year-old Hanoverian mare Floratina (Fidertanz x Rubina by Rubin-Royal) as they claimed reserve honors with 71.817% for their final Intermediate freestyle performance before moving up to the large tour next year “It took a while to gain her trust and get her to want to work for me “So my goal for her is to always come out and feel confident in what she does For Adult Amateurs in the Intermediate I Freestyle Championship 2016 reserve champions Alexandra Krossen of Basking Ridge (Region 8) and Heather Mason’s 11-year-old Hanoverian cross mare Damani (Duvall x Godiva by Gesandt by Virginia Godfrey) came back to Kentucky to claim the top title with 70.842% “She was amazing – she was very calm and collected which isn’t always the way she is so it was a nice surprise,” Krossen noted “She was totally with me and did everything I could have asked so I did my 3’s on a circle and my 2’s down centerline to really show them off and our pirouettes have gotten a lot better this year as well.” Friday’s Intermediate I Adult Amateur Champions Elma Garcia of Mill Spring (Region 1) padded her resume even further by earning reserve in today’s freestyle with her 15-year-old Hanoverian mare Wenesa (Westernhagen x Dancing Girl by Davignon) on 68.792% but I was inspired by Mongolian music at a film festival so I decided to try it for our performance,” said Garcia Chester Weber and his family transform [...] Suzan Oakley an innovative leader and educator in advanced equine rehabilitation provides a healing refuge for equine athletes on the mend Registered properties of HorsesDaily®Inc. A media and marketing company for the Equine Industry. All content under this copyright is the property of HorsesDaily® Inc. Unless otherwise noted. ©1997 - 2025 horsesdaily.com and dressagedaily.com Enter your email address and we will send you a link to change your password This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks The action you just performed triggered the security solution There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase You can email the site owner to let them know you were blocked Please include what you were doing when this page came up and the Cloudflare Ray ID found at the bottom of this page Next Sunday, September 17, the annual Dam tot Damloop will take place Student Wietze Nicolaï ran a little too fast in preparation for the race “It will take 10 minutes longer as a result but I’m really looking forward to it.” Trekking from Amsterdam to Zaandam on foot not every student would be willing to do that a completely different picture will emerge: Thousands of runners will bravely venture into the annual Dam tot Damloop This means 16 kilometers of toil and suffering: first through the open IJ tunnel and then through the rural surroundings of Amsterdam-Noord encouraged all along the way by hundreds of spectators and energized by music.  Just try to keep calm and find the right cadence Does every UvA student know what they’re getting into We talked to econometrics student Wietze Nicolaï (23) How did the idea come up to participate in the Dam tot Damloop “Last week my three roommates and I happened to see that it was the last day to register We thought it would be fun to participate just to enjoy ourselves We’ll also have some friends at the finish line And then we’ll go back to Amsterdam to eat and drink something together at home.” Running more than 16 kilometers is a long way I’m aware of that,” he says confidently “I ran a 21-kilometer half marathon when I was 18 Knowing that I’ve already run that once I think 16 kilometers should be manageable too.” He pauses a little longer: “Although that was also five years ago “I started last Monday and did a quarter triathlon before the summer. I normally play soccer twice a week and then in the winter I skate once a week I didn’t think it would be that challenging but when I went for a workout the other day with my roommate who is a really good runner I overexerted myself.” Nicolaï clearly regrets this I ran a little too fast anyway so...,” he acknowledges gave eight simple tips for people who are going to participate in the Dam tot Damloop Pay attention to your own body temperature I can imagine that you now look at this race very differently and then we’ll celebrate that we did it And now I’m starting to realize more and more that it could be a very bone-jarring race So I’m starting to get a little more nervous as it gets closer and closer But I’m still really looking forward to it.” but I think it will be an hour and forty minutes now because I’m not quite fit anymore.” So you’re only allowing an extra 10 minutes because of your knee “Yes,” he laughs optimistically “I’m like: as long as I don’t start out injured You also don’t know exactly when it’s going to bother you.” “Thank you!” And after a moment’s hesitation: “I’m hoping I’ll make it now that I’ve been immortalized in an article And that I can think back on it later as a beautiful memory!” part of drilling and production engineering at the Hamburg headquarters of German operator RWE Dea AG owns and operates two rigs in addition to those leased from drilling contractors The powerful (6,500 hp) T-160 rig has a 580-tonne maximum hook load capacity and runs on DC power generated by three Caterpillar 12-cylinder diesel engines The low-noise rig features sound-insulated power equipment Wietze began operating the T-160 rig in 1997 and uses it to drill up to two gas wells/year in Lower Saxony According to statements made at RWE Dea’s annual press conference on Mar Wietze spudded the Völkersen Z7 production well in August 2004 and expected to reach the 5,000 m TD of the Völkersen-Nord Z5 in May 2005 The company’s Lilienthal-Sud Z1 exploration well near Bremen The Minister-President of Germany’s Lower Saxony press release that “about 20% of Germany’s demand for natural gas is met by domestic sources “and this comes predominantly from the natural gas supplier state of Lower Saxony.” Wulff was visiting an RWE dea drill site where the T-160 drill rig was at work on the Völkersen-Nord Z5 natural gas well near Verden (Fig RWE Dea has produced about 8 billion cu m of natural gas from the Völkersen gas field (2 billion in 2004) was used for extended reach drilling (ERD) in Germany’s Mittelplate oil field The rig was permanently installed on the 70 x 95 m Mittelplate drilling and production island in the southern part of the Wattenmeer National Park in the North German state of Schleswig-Holstein the rig drilled the Mittelplate A17 and A18 wells RWE Dea announced progress on a new drilling rig for Mittelplate from Bentec GMBH Drilling & Oilfield Systems The T-150 derrick will be commissioned by the end of 2005 and will enable wells to target prospects within a 6-km radius around the island ERD wells have been drilled into the eastern part of the Mittelplate field from onshore sites at Friedrichskoog and produced into Dieksand Drilling to 2,000 m deep with 8,000 m step-outs (longest TD was 9,275 m these are among Europe’s longest ERD projects Sailing the Atlantic from Cape Town to the Azores marked the end of an eight-year circumnavigation for Dutch couple Wietze van der Laan and Janneke Kuysters “Not an ounce more of anything is added to the boat because I had just grabbed my bag for another quick visit to the supermarket We have a 6,000-mile trip to go and my fear of running out of food is even bigger than normal But when I check my little book of supplies The next morning we give each other the customary pre-departure look in the eye and ask: “Ready?” Then we’re on our way for this monster voyage: Cape Town to the Azores This will be our final big passage in over 50,000 miles of sailing around the world Cape Town’s Table Mountain slips by to stern By the time Table Mountain sinks below the horizon It feels as if the cold Benguela current swoops past the south-west of the African continent A dream comes true when we see a Southern right whale surface close by During the pleasant downwind sail to Lüderitz in Namibia, we see many ships with the sign ‘limited manoeuvrability’ on our AIS screen because they seem to be close to the shore Wietze then realises they are diamond-ships: alluvial diamonds are spread across the seafloor and across parts of the south-west of Namibia Dredging boats literally suck the diamonds up Exploring the stunning sand dunes of Namibia “You’re just in time to tie up before the afternoon breeze starts,” Andy tells us We’re directed to use one of the moorings normally used by dredging boats “It’s best to use this mooring instead of anchoring The holding is not good,” our new friend says An hour later it feels as if a switch has been flicked and we find ourselves in 40-plus knots of wind Where the hot desert meets the cold current go for a wander around this very German-looking town A few days later we slip our mooring and head to Walvis Bay This time we sail closer inshore and enjoy the ‘stop and go’ sailing: nights and early mornings are lovely with light southerly breezes and a gentle push by the current At 1300 the afternoon breeze starts and we fly north Walvis Bay has a small craft basin in the south where the Walvis Bay Yacht Club is very welcoming and offers us a sturdy mooring. We’ve learned our lesson and tie up before the afternoon breeze hits again – the same breezes that powered SailRocket to its record breaking 65-knot run It hasn't been easy for the VOR fleet to round the mighty Cape but now they face another obstacle…a wind… A group of cruising sailors stranded by the COVID pandemic in the remote South Atlantic island of St Helena have… We go from wearing thick thermals to shorts and T-shirts in a matter of days once we are out of the current It is ocean sailing at its best: very stable 10-15 knots of wind from southerly directions We don’t touch the sheets or helm for days ticking off the miles in the most pleasant way The biggest issue is working out what to eat next – and what to do with the packaging Despite all our efforts to reduce the packaging we take on board it is worrying to see how much plastic waste we still produce Anna Caroline has taken Janneke Kuysters and Wietze van der Laan 50,000 miles around the world We try a new trick: cutting each packet into small pieces and storing it in an empty bottle; compact and odour-free For the next 5,000 miles there is little chance we’ll get ashore After nine days of blissful cruising, an email from a friend brings unexpected good news: Saint Helena has opened its borders. We can’t believe it, but a quick message to Saint Helena’s harbour master Steve Kirk confirms that we’d have to quarantine for 14 days, and take a test, but would be allowed on shore (the island honours seatime as quarantine). How lucky we are: one of the iconic destinations in the South Atlantic is accessible for us after all. The next day we tie to one of the mandatory moorings and settle in for four days of quarantine. Some boat jobs and chatting with cruising friends on the VHF make the days fly by. German colonial buildings in Lüderitz, Namibia St Helena has a ferry system because there is only a small quay for lifting a dinghy onto. The ferry efficiently takes fishermen and cruisers to and from their boats. We love Jamestown at first sight: a quaint village, steeped in history. The Jacobs Ladder with 699 steps is a challenge with our sealegs, but the views up top are rewarding. But time is ticking and the season is progressing fast. Back in Steve Kirk’s office, he asks if we have a visa for Ascension Island? “Yes,” Wietze says, “but we’re not sure if we are going there, because of the difficulty to get on land in the massive swell.” “If you decide to go, you could do us a big favour by taking a box with emergency medicine that is needed there,” Steve says. One glance at Wietze is enough: of course we will go. Steve rushes off to the pharmacy, then we clear out and say goodbye to Saint Helena with our precious cargo on board. The conditions are the same, but no more lazy downwind sailing for us because we feel the urge to get to Ascension fast. We are on high alert for every windshift or change in wind speed. The current that helped us, has decreased to a trickle. But still we average around 115 miles a day with our 17-tonne boat in 10-12 knots of wind. When the wind dies further, we switch on the engine. With still many miles to go, we try to minimise the use of the engine. Wietze routinely checks the battery monitor every few hours, one day he notices that one of our three batteries is very hot. “Shut the engine down!” he shouts. He quickly disengages the broken battery and, in the silence that follows, we scratch our heads. With 3,500 miles still to go this could potentially create a difficult situation if the other two also break down. The chance that we can get another one on Ascension is close to zero. When we arrive at Ascension Island, a large military-looking boat comes out to meet us and to show us where to anchor. Two hours later they are back to bring us, our papers and the precious box of medication ashore. Ascension has a reputation for difficult shore access and we are about to find out if it is true. The large boat manoeuvres nimbly alongside a concrete quay in 2-3m swell. “Wait until we are on top of the wave and then jump,” the skipper instructs. The volcanic cone of Cat Hill looms over Georgetown, Ascension Island. A steel arch is constructed over the landing quay, and ropes with knots are suspended from this arc. “On the top of the wave, you grab a rope and sling yourself ashore,” the mate says. I’m nervous, but we both complete the circus act without getting too wet and run up the stairs before the next wave swamps the quay. Harbour Master Kitty George calls the doctor, who rushes down from the local hospital to pick up the box. It’s a great feeling to be part of the old traditions between seafarers and remote communities: helping each other out when possible. When we wander around Georgetown, we marvel at the contrast between the white buildings and the dark volcanic mountains. Everywhere we look we see antennas rising into the air: Ascension is a very strategic location in the middle of the South Atlantic. Traces of green turtles can be seen everywhere on the beaches, both the wide tracks of the females who come ashore to lay their eggs and the smaller tracks of the hatchlings making their way to the sea. Water taxi ashore for a visit to Jamestown,Saint Helena On our way back to the dreaded quay, we pass by the government stores. We step in and much to our surprise they have a battery available – not exactly what we need, but it’s a good back up. Launching ourselves back into the ferry boat is just as hard as getting out, especially with a heavy battery, but the crew is very helpful and we reach our yacht without a hitch. Three days later, we decide that it’s time to go for the big one: the long passage to the Azores. The start is similar to what we had before: leisurely light winds aft of the beam and clear skies. It gets warmer every day and each morning we find more and more flying fish on deck: on one day there are 26! St Helena is more than just a rocky outcrop On the sixth day, we pass the Equator for the sixth time on this voyage. This inspires Wietze to get all dressed up as Neptune and deliver a thundering speech, to which I obediently listen. We offer a tot of whisky to Neptune and congratulate ourselves on reaching the northern hemisphere. As if on cue, at 3° 50’ north of the equator, the wind stops. “Welcome to the doldrums,” Wietze muses. We start the engine on a glassy sea, sprinkled with tufts of yellow Sargasso weed. The monotonous nights are brightened by feathered guests: birds rest on the aft rail. It’s a delight to look at them while they’re trying to keep their balance. One night, I’m watching our guests with a torch and I notice something odd: the windvane is moving. It’s not supposed to do that: two very sturdy brackets hold it into place. I scream at Wietze to disengage the engine. Wietze looks at the stern. “Oh no, it’s come off the bottom bracket.” We both know there’s only one way to fix this. Wietze puts on his shortie wetsuit, while I get tools ready. Double secured, he steps over the pushpit onto the swimming ladder which heaves up and down in the dark nightly swell. He ends up with his legs around the rudder of the vane, pushing and shoving until it is back on the bracket. Shivering from exhaustion he is back on board half an hour later. After only two days of motoring, the north-east tradewinds kick in all of a sudden. We hoist the main with a reef, hoist the cutter jib and roll out the yankee. Anna Caroline loves this wind angle, so we hear the water rushing along her sides. Inside the boat, it is another story: we heel quite a bit and I wonder how long this is going to be enjoyable for. The rest of the day we experiment with sail configurations and wind angle to find a point of sail that is both fast and comfortable. It’s a delicate balance to keep the pitching motion bearable and to keep the boat in one piece in the 20-plus knot trade winds. We snap off some chocolate pieces to celebrate crossing our outbound track of many years ago. Since then, 52,460 miles have passed under our keel. We hug and enjoy this special moment. The next morning we keep looking at our boat speed in puzzlement: with this wind force and angle we should easily be doing 5-6 knots. But we’re doing only 3-4. Wietze is tense with frustration, so while he is taking a nap, I send a message to Lynnath Beckley, our ‘weather friend’. She replies instantly and suggests changes in sail setting and course. “You’re brave to choose this upwind track,” she writes, “By the time you get to Azores, one leg will be shorter than the other”. She confirms that we have 2 knots of current against us for the next 200 miles, and in a post script adds: “Have you looked over the side?” Sooner than we thought, we get used to the heel and the pitching of the boat. To cook, I have to strap myself to the stove to be able to use both hands. Using the heads becomes an art in itself. But we adapt quickly and both remark on how comfortable we both feel. We’ve never liked long crossings, but somehow this one feels very manageable despite the 2,000 mile upwind slog in the middle of it. “It’s the food,” I conclude. For this crossing, I decided to go for many small snacks during the day in addition to the three meals we normally eat. Bits of chocolate, nuts, dried fruit, salty crackers and sweets have had more impact than we thought. Almost every day there is something to celebrate with a special treat. One morning Wietze hands me another generous piece of chocolate. “We have reached the fold in the chart,” he points out. We marvel that we are both still learning new tricks after eight years of sailing. “Like mowing the lawn,” I joke. Once a day we have to remove the Sargasso weed from the foredeck, thrown there by the waves crashing over our bow. Plenty of fresh produce, which laster fairly well on the long passage “If we would have to continue this for another week, I wouldn’t mind,” Wietze says. I agree – and it’s the first time we’ve ever felt this way, on all our other crossings we were counting down the days to our arrival. A week of beating passes, then another week, and then almost another one. The current slackens and the wind turns a bit more to the east, allowing us to steer almost directly to the Azores. We plot the courses of two fellow boats making the same passage, knowing there is a silent competition who can point highest, enduring it, to sail the fewest miles on this long track. Anna Caroline sits in the middle between an Oyster 40 and a 36ft steel Rekere. The Oyster takes the westernmost track, holding their light cruising chute until they enter the doldrums, the Rekere is more easterly. Having stopped in St Helena, we are about a week behind, and also take an easterly route, but are faced with much stronger winds and steeper waves, and so have to veer off a little. And then the wind peters out; we have found the Azores High. It’s a funny, pear-shaped high, but a high it is. Down come the sails again and the engine takes over the job while we are surrounded by rafts of Portuguese man of war jellyfish. While the boat slowly rolls in the long swell, we enjoy the change of motion. But there is a nasty low lurking to the west of us; twice a day we look at the weather charts as we need to decide on a strategy. The front is showing 40-60 knot winds; we need to avoid that at all cost. As soon as we are north of the high and back into lovely south-westerly winds, there is no other option than to slow the boat down and let the front pass north of us. For 24 hours we potter along with mini sails and just 2 knots boatspeed. As soon as we are in the clear, everything goes back up for a sprint over the last 200 miles. Mist, drizzle and cold winds make the last miles difficult, and we are only a mile out of Faial when we finally spot the island. There are high fives, hugs and kisses: 3,185 miles in 29 days. Done. The June 2025 issue of Yachting World is out now. Janneke Kuysters along with Partner, Wietze van der Laan report on the idyllic conditions they found when cruising the Seychelles even during the Covid-19 pandemic It had been a long time coming but after many days of quarantine onboard, finally finding a Seychelles anchorage a possibility as Janneke Kuysters along with Partner, Wietze van der Laan arrived at the collection of islands in the Indian Ocean. Are you sure?” my partner Wietze asked I nodded: “Yes, look at that cloud there. It is different, I’m sure there is an island under it.” I can’t keep my eyes off the cloud, and half an hour later am calling Wietze back on deck with cries of “Land! Land, look there!” Wietze joins me in my joy; we hug and look at the dark mass in the distance. Every time when you arrive somewhere after a long crossing it is special. But this one was extra special: the crossing was only 14 days, but it was the closing stage of 102 days of strict isolation on board in the Maldives. Our bodies longed to walk on terra firma, eat fresh food and meet other people. All that was now within reach. Janneke Kuysters and Wietze van der Laan and have been sailing around the world with their 44ft Bruce Roberts design for seven years. Once in our quarantine anchorage, we took a long look around at the verdant green hills, every shade of green and blue in the reefs all around us, brightly coloured fishing vessels at the quays, and the local sailing club whizzing by in their dinghies. “Bonzour!” is the Creole way of greeting. We hand the health officer all our information, he stamps it and grins behind his facemask: “Welcome to Seychelles”, and off he goes with the Pilot cutter. I need all my self-control not to dance around the dock as frigate birds and fruit bats fly overhead. In the middle of the Indian Ocean, the small island nation of Seychelles offers a welcoming point of respite for cruisers on their way to the Atlantic – never more so than under the travel restrictions of 2020 – and is also an idyllic sailing and charter destination in its own right. The cruising options are very seasonal: from December to March the north-west monsoon brings hot air and rain; from May to October the south-east monsoon brings hot, dry air. The south-east monsoon is much stronger than its counterpart: especially in July and August when the winds are usually around the 25-knot mark. The Seychelles lies outside of the cyclone belt. On a choppy sea we sailed to Praslin, the second largest island. Looking at the chart for suitable anchorages it is obvious how these islands seem to be made for sailing year-round: in every wind direction you can find a protected bay. We loved Anse Lazio, where the contrast between the dark granitic boulders, the azure sea and the incredible white sand dazzled us. Palm trees bend in the strong wind, with boobies circling overhead. Baie St Anne on the east coast is a very large bay with reasonable – though rolly – protection from the south-east trades. It is a convenient stop to visit the little town of St Anne to provision. This anchorage is also a short taxi ride to Vallee de Mai, one of the world’s smallest UNESCO World Heritage sites, where the mysterious Coco de Mer can be seen. The source of the Coco de Mer, or sea coconut Many years ago, ancient seafarers witnessed a strange phenomenon of large coconuts floating up from the depths of the sea. They called them Coco de Mer, sea coconut, and believed they grew underwater. It wasn’t until the Seychelles islands were charted that the source of these coconuts was discovered: they grow on giant palm trees, but once they fall in the water the green husk falls off and the nut sinks to the bottom. The flesh inside forms a gas and thus the coconut floats to the surface. They can weigh up to 30kg each. Each palm tree takes a year to make one leaf, as big as a king-sized bed. The islands of the Seychelles were marked on charts from as early as 865 by Arab seafarers. From the 1500s onwards, Portuguese, British and French ships plying the route to India and the Spice Islands knew about the Seychelles, but never settled on them. They stopped near the lush green islands in the north-west to hunt for crocodiles and tortoises, pick fruits and replenish their water supply and pirates used the Seychelles as a base, but it wasn’t until 1770 when a group of French settlers came to the islands and started plantations. On any round-the-world cruise by the sunny route, there is the dilemma of how to cross the Indian Ocean. For… “It’s still a long way to get home,” Carina Hammarlund muses. My partner Weitze van der Laan and I nod.… To this day, the historic Jardin du Roi (King’s Garden) still exists: a valley where new crop plants were tested before using them in the plantations. In 1814 the Seychelles became part of the British empire and the population grew steadily; a mix of people from Europe, India and mainland Africa. In 1976 Seychelles became an independent republic. Despite consisting of 115 islands, it is a small country with a population of just under 100,000. The three most populous islands are Mahé (with the capital Victoria), Praslin and La Digue. Each island has its own characteristics. Mahé has some hustle and bustle. The capital city Victoria offers an interesting national museum, delicious Creole food and a large open market. In the south is the region of Takamaka, where the first five families that inhabited Mahé set up their plantations. We visit an old plantation house, where the descendants have set up a rum distillery. The marina at La Digue. Photo: Dirk Rueter/Alamy La Digue, the smallest of the three populated islands, is idyllic and the pace of life is slow. There are hardly any cars, the most common mode of transport is bicycle. It has a tiny, shallow harbour with a ferry jetty and an unusual collection of boats. The small schooners which normally ply the waters between La Digue and Praslin with tourists have returned to their old roles as fishing boats during the pandemic. There is room for a few visiting boats, and on calm days the anchorage outside the harbour is pleasant too. When the monsoon changes, the east side of the island offers a large, safe Seychelles anchorage. A steep climb up Nid D’Aigle offers panoramic views: the steep slopes of the surrounding islands are impressive in the vast ocean. In the north-west of the Seychelles are granitic islands: about one third of which are very distinct with high hills and mountains, green slopes and a multitude of pretty Seychelles anchorages. The rest are low-lying atolls with small islands dotted around them. A lot are off-limits for cruising because they’re private resorts or protected nature reserves although, for some, permission to sail there can usually be obtained with the Ministry of Environment. All over the Seychelles the walking is impressive. The Seychelles Tourism Board publishes a handy book with the best routes, and at the end of each is a grand reward of views to die for. We walk through wild crop plants including pineapple, vanilla, pepper, cinnamon and tea, and see blue pigeon, harmless snakes and black snails, as well as the famous giant tortoises found on all the islands. The Seychelles has its own genus of giant tortoise. Seychelles re-opened its borders to foreign yachts on 1 June, 2020. An online form needs to be submitted before arrival. After approval, a yacht needs to be at sea for 21 days. If the crossing is shorter than that, additional days can be spent in the quarantine anchorage near Victoria. Port Victoria on Mahé is the only port of entry/exit. The small nation has had a very low amount of COVID-19 infections and is carefully increasing its tourist numbers again. Information through Facebook and government websites is good. Provisioning is good (although eating out can be expensive); health care is as can be expected from a small country. Availability of boat parts is reasonable, due to large charter and fishing fleets. There are three boatyards where maintenance work can be done: they differ in price and facilities, but all are cheap compared to Europe. There is one large marina on Mahé; Eden Island, which is geared to larger yachts and catamarans, but with our 44ft monohull we found a good berth too. Berth prices are on a European level when booked for one month or more, while daily rates are quite high. On Praslin there is a small marina, which only has spaces available if the resident charter fleet is out. La Digue also has a small harbour that can accommodate visiting yachts. Both harbours are relatively cheap. Close to Victoria on the east coast of Mahé there are some excellent anchorages. The Yacht Club in Victoria has free moorings and is conveniently near the centre of the city. Temporary memberships for £15 per week allow cruisers to use the facilities. This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks. The action you just performed triggered the security solution. There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data. You can email the site owner to let them know you were blocked. Please include what you were doing when this page came up and the Cloudflare Ray ID found at the bottom of this page. The PV plants nearly always include batteries The solar plants generate most of their energy around noon This results in their users not drawing power from the grid around noon this depresses the power demand that would otherwise be drawn from the grid Year by year more solar is installed and so less and less energy is drawn from the grid Charting the amount of energy supplied by the power stations – via the grid – results in a line which sags around noon This chart pattern has been dubbed the "solar duck curve" we reach a point where everyone has supplied themselves and their neighbours Thus there's no need for electricity from power stations So some or all coal plants must be taken offline around midday. Read Wietze Post's Part 1 article here Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here Rooftop Solar Plants – Nuclear and Coal's Nemesis The duck curve is a graph. It resembles a duck sitting in water. The graph shows how rooftop solar plants take away grid demand on sunny days power stations have nowhere to send their energy Charting ½-hourly wholesale spot prices shows a similar chart for sunny days The duck curve highlights the bane of all large power stations (generators) They are all large and need the grid to transmit and distribute their power property owners install many rooftop solar plants Their sizes range from small residential to large commercial These rooftop solar plants can generate a lot of energy Then their owners need little or no power from the grid their excess energy gets priority access to the distribution grid so many rooftops have solar panels that local grids no longer need supply from upstream in dark and cloudy times wind turbines reduce demand "Base load" demand disappears due to the massive rooftop solar power generation So some large generators must shut down for a few hours or entice consumers by paying them to use more energy the grid needs fewer and fewer hours of supply Batteries installed with rooftop PV plants start discharging late afternoon Thus there's no grid demand from the property the level of grid demand during the remaining hours also decreases The average grid power demand may go from 24 hours/day at 50GW Note that the total daily energy demand goes down much quicker than the power demand energy demand goes from 1200GWh to 800GWh to 80GWh/day only 1/5 (at best) of the number of large power stations are still needed and they all only work for 1/3 of the time only the cheapest 10% of the units remain active for ½ of every day The image above is based on data from Perth The lines show the grid demand on a summer's day the grid demand rises steadily year by year They generate more energy for themselves and demand less daytime energy That is now the case in many regions globally Zero grid demand (zero system load) can last for several hours per day during the summer half-year After a few years the grid is left with no system load all day The Duck Curve shows how the little guys' solar plants take coal and nuclear's lunch Yet there's an important difference between South African solar owners and Australians Australians don't suffer from load shedding they only installed panels with inverters – no batteries with some new installations including batteries Australians usually install solar to save on electricity expenses For South Africans, the main buying trigger is to avoid load shedding So a battery is standard in South African solar installations South African batteries are usually fully charged by 4 pm Battery energy is used in the evening and so there's less grid demand at night The duck's neck becomes shorter and the lines through the head and beak lie lower The evening peak grid demand will become lower than the morning peak the little guys' solar & battery plants take coal and nuclear's lunch the morning and evening peaks lie much higher the whole grid demand curve lies higher in winter This naturally fits wind farms' prime generation times On most days the grid demand decreases around noon All the rooftop PV plants generate power for their premises Their excess energy floods the local distribution grid On those days several large power plants must shut down for a few hours or curtail their output The grid may have extreme and rapid demand changes The rapid changes make life difficult for fixed-output plants Coal and nuclear plants struggle to remain economically viable The variable grid demand requires a nimble response they can instantly curtail or ramp their output Hydro turbines need a few minutes to get ready Their operators could complement the turbines with large batteries The batteries bridge the gap and speed up their response The duck curve shows why it may not be a good idea to install a solar farm we will get to the point where solar plants cannibalise each other Then you can supply energy when there's less competition from the rooftop solar plants When governing authorities buy renewable energy plants Leave the PV plants for the rooftop owners to install It's a better balance of effort and investment Yet you may be keen to invest in large solar plants Consider investing in VPPs (Virtual Power Plants) These consist of thousands of rooftop plants and batteries VPPs can make grid interventions within milliseconds California's solar duck curve has sagged deeper year by year grid electricity demand was at zero on its lowest Spring day Note that the curve is approaching zero demand from 11 am through 4 pm This event is likely to occur in Spring 2024 the no-demand period will extend over more hours and days The 2023 demand is one of the lowest recorded Yet there will be demand after 5 pm through 8 am for several more years But the whole curve will shift lower year by year We will see a "sleepy duck" curve Janneke Kuysters and Wietze van der Laan are captivated by the Pacific islands of New Caledonia full of hope that this time I’ll grab the mooring buoy without a hitch I’m totally focussed on the white buoy bobbing right in front of us I mentally prepare the mooring lines in my left hand to go through that ring But just as we are 3m away from the mooring It looks me straight in the eye and says: “Pffff!” I am stunned “A what?” And then I’ve missed the buoy and have to do another turn The second time it all goes well and ten minutes later the stillness of this sunny day descends around us Amédée lighthouse and nature reserve – the lagoon is a UNESCO World Heritage Site “Now what did you say about a pig?” Wietze asks me We both dash outside and there he is again swimming slowly around our boat before making a majestic dive to the grassy patch behind us “Are you going to Vanuatu?” a lot of people asked us when we were waiting for a weather window in Opua so we have more time there,” was our answer and we feel we are richly rewarded for making this choice we see Mount Doré vaguely in the early hours of the morning The VHF comes to life with French chattering sailing across the Atlantic and then exploring the Pacific before selling it for the purchase price in… You can lose a lot of friends when you’re sailing across the Pacific After the first couple of photos you… The pass through the reef is easy to spot (the flat bit between the massive rollers) and the Amedée lighthouse beckons with her arms of light It takes 13 miles to get from the reef to the capital Nouméa And all the time you feast your eyes on innumerable shades of blue which the morning sun reveals “Did you know that it is only slightly smaller than the Great Barrier Reef?” I ask Wietze while I read through a cruising guide trying to avoid hitting one of the many anchored boats outside Port Moselle one of the two marinas that provide check-in facilities Port Moselle has one dock set aside for visiting yachts The rules are strict in the busy season: three nights maximum stay That’ll give us plenty of time to clear in and have a good look around Clearing in is a breeze: a brisk walk to Immigration (two forms Customs is handled by the marina (one form) and the biosecurity officer comes on board Our vegetables can stay; she only takes one potato Within two hours everything is done at no cost at all All forms are French/English and all the people involved speak English in a very charming French way We feel like we have found Paris in the tropics The market is next to the marina and we stock up on delicious papayas The local produce is reasonably priced but everything imported is breathtakingly expensive We wander through Nouméa and love the Place Cocotier (Palmtree Square) where there always seems to be an event going on The little museums are gems where there is lots to learn about New Caledonia’s history Having a little French cup of coffee on a terrace is the best start to the day imaginable here Our three days pass very quickly and soon we find ourselves begging for more at the marina office He grabs my elbow and points at the chart on the wall “Look here: protected anchorages on the little atolls It is such a shame that most cruisers come here for only a few weeks.” One more round of the market to stock up on fresh goodies A whopping four miles from the capital is the first atoll the French government has laid hundreds of free mooring buoys all over New Caledonia Anna Caroline at anchor off Île Uére´near Nouméa They can take boats of up to 10m in all wind strengths; bigger boats have to go elsewhere when the wind picks up over 20 knots. We tie to a mooring and enjoy the sun setting. No green flash on the horizon but the green flash of a very French bottle of Chablis on board We spend a week exploring. While we enjoy a picnic lunch on the beach of Île Amédée, where the old metal lighthouse proudly stands, a fellow cruiser walks over and asks: “You’re going to Île des Pins too tomorrow?” We shamefully admit that we haven’t been pulling up our weather charts in the past days. Happily cruising around in the benign tradewinds has made us lazy The next morning we are on our way at first light “I sure hope that it is worth it,” says Wietze sourly Once we turn into Kuto Bay we know that it was worth every minute palm-fringed with an inviting terrace right in the middle We run into a local guy who introduces himself as William “I’ll take you to go sailing,” he says with a smile Wietze points at our boat: “We know sailing not the sailing we do here,” William persists So the next morning at 0700 he picks us up from the beach We wade through the water to Bernard’s boat but Bernard manages to make remarkable speed with it A turtle can only just dodge us when we thunder downwind Old and new: sailing with a traditional pirogue outrigger canoe – which also has an outboard motor Bernard steers his nimble craft with a large paddle as an oar as we find out when we race past a massive rock He is Kanak and a member of one of eight tribes on the island Another pirogue sets off from the beach and apparently it is the same with Kanaks as with all other sailors: two boats on the water is a race We’re having lots of fun comparing the speed and the wind angle of both boats from where we walk through the forest to a river Then we follow the riverbank for about a kilometre before we get to La Piscine Naturelle (the natural swimming pool) spectacularly blue water filled with colourful clams Beautiful La Piscine Naturelle on the Île des Pins just south-east of the main island of New Caledonia his face beaming with pride: “This was special A lovely downwind sail brings us to Prony Bay It is as if we enter a different world with lush green hills and red earth I feel as if fairies could come out of the bush any moment The people of New Caledonia have a special word for this red earth; they call it ‘boue rouge’ The boue rouge is the most amazing mud; it sticks to everything and water won’t wash it off The non-skid on our deck will bear the boue rouge badge of honour for years Vegetation clings to rock formations on the reefs that have been sculpted by waves over the millennia Anchorages are all a convenient four or five miles apart and from almost every beach there is a marked track leading to a lighthouse or hot spring We walk for hours and can’t stop being amazed at the abundance of flowers and unusual plants After weeks of pottering around its bays and islands we were convinced our decision to focus on New Caledonia was the right one Early in the season the tradewinds are not as strong so the range of destinations is much wider In the marina office we run into the same local sailor again “Did you like it?” he asks with that special grin of barely hidden superiority Mountains are the backdrop to New Caledonia’s landscape New Caledonia is a French Overseas Territory most people speak (or at least understand) English Clearing customs is a straightforward process which can be dealt with in English and most of the formalities can be handled by two marinas: Port du Sud and Port Moselle Channel markers and other navigational aids are maintained to European standards but it pays to have detailed and recent charts of the lagoon but with some careful shopping it is possible to provision without emptying the cruising coffers and credit and debit cards are accepted almost everywhere Janneke Kuysters and Wietze Van Der Laan left the Netherlands in 2013 with their Bruce Roberts 44 Anna Caroline. They have crossed the Atlantic, sailed the Americas up to Alaska and cruised the Pacific extensively. First published in the September 2020 issue of Yachting World. skepticism arises over the development of gas and nuclear projects due to financial challenges introducing concepts like "Wright's Law" and the "Duck Curve" to shed light on the evolving energy landscape Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) has published the draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2023). You can find the complete set of IRP documents here DMRE expects non-state entities to add 900MW of distributed generation annually South Africans made a good deal of progress every quarter we put up about 650MW of solar PV (photovoltaic) – 2,6GW in total Chinese records show that they exported 4,345GW to SA They will struggle to reach a financial close on the commercial market I'll explain why I have the expectations that I do consumers want to pay as little as possible for electricity Consumers want lots more electricity when it's cheap I'll introduce you to "Wright's Law" I note that making things by hand causes each unit to be different Yet in a factory products can be standardised Theodore Wright was a U.S. aeronautical engineer. In 1936, he published a paper "Factors affecting the costs of airplanes." It describes what is known as Wright's law or experience curve effects The paper describes that "we learn by doing." The cost of each unit decreases as a function of the cumulative number of units produced Wright found that every time total aeroplane production doubled This has become known as "Wright's Law." It's also known as the learning curve Let's apply Wright's Law to how you learn to bake a cake You may have to buy ingredients and equipment The third and fourth time you bake that cake You'll have some routine by the time you bake the eighth cake You'll be praised for how yummy your cake is That may encourage you to bake many more of those cakes and sell them You'll buy ingredients in bulk and get more equipment so you can speed things up You'll hire help and figure out how to sell better You'll have experience from the first cake The learning rate also applies to making each cake look the same You'll want to lower costs and improve quality Especially when you start baking cakes in a dedicated kitchen you'll include layout and workflow improvements You may have an idea that can radically speed up cake baking That would be a step-change in baking cakes at a much lower cost Then you can sell cheaper than everybody else A slightly lower cost may be enough to sell many more Yet you'll make a bigger profit per cake because your costs are so much lower than your competitors You'll sell many more cakes because they're cheaper than others Wright's Law says that you learn at a steady rate when going from 1 to 2 cakes the learning rate is steady across every doubling of what has gone before You have the same rate of learning when going from 2 million to 4 million units You'll have the same percentage of cost reduction and quality improvements a rate of learning applies to making solar panels But coal power plants are nearly always one of a kind Yet they may have components built in a small run And there are lessons from building previous power plants Yet those lessons may not apply to the current (coal power) project Medupi and Kusile's design engineers had a particular knowledge set Yet usually costs and quality improve with experience/learning Note it's the intrinsic value and quality of the items that improve we get more generation capacity for less cost manufacturing speed and uniformity improve So the panels' quality improves and with that it's longevity So its cost per unit of generation capacity (R/kWp*) goes down the annual price decrease resembles a straight line Thus we can predict the likely price in future the cost per unit of storage capacity improves the cost of a kWh of storage capacity goes down A quality and reliability measure is how often you can charge and discharge a battery It's measured in cycles of fully charging and discharging the battery So a battery should be better when this number goes down: Rand/kWh/cycle and safety of travelling a kilometre improves leaving the Seychelles and sailing to South Africa made for a demanding voyage “Quick, close the hatches!” my partner Wietze calls down while we prepare an early Monday breakfast. All is ready to leave Seychelles, we’ve mustered our courage to tackle the difficult passage south, sailing to South Africa but now there is thunder We need to fill our diesel tanks but with the rain gushing over the deck there is no way we can open the filler caps Only in late afternoon does it finally stop pouring; too late to go to the fuel dock we leave tomorrow,” Wietze says with barely concealed frustration Fortunately the next day dawns bright and sunny so we say our goodbyes again and are at the fuel dock by 0730 A few hundred litres later we cast off and Leaving the Seychelles and sailing to South Africa fraught with currents and adverse winds generated by strong systems that pass south of Africa Madagascar or Mozambique offer some respite for the tired cruiser But not this year: with both countries closed we’ll have to make the 2,000-mile passage in one go Less than an hour after we motored out of Eden Island Marina Pink water is spouting out of the cap of the heat exchanger Thanks to the electric and manual bilge pumps working hard I roll out a bit of the yankee to get steerage back towards the marina Discover the best way to cope with squalls and weather them safely in the latest instalment of our Bluewater Sailing… It had been a long time coming but after many days of quarantine onboard finally finding a Seychelles anchorage a… In light winds we can get within a mile of the marina and fellow cruisers Peter and Jen from Steel Sapphire bolt out of the marina with their dinghy to tow us in and we are pleasantly surprised that a 17-ton boat can be moved by a 10hp outboard engine With some pushing and shoving we are back in our berth by 1030 The beautiful Seychelles disappear astern as Anna Caroline heads south Wietze quietly works through the engine and finds the cause: our heat exchanger is filled to the brim with marine growth The harbour of Victoria is known for very active marine life With whatever tools we can find we get rid of it rinse the system and fill it again with coolant much to the amusement of our fellow cruisers The excellent weather window we had on Monday has become an ‘okay-ish’ window fearing another round of paperwork and a long wait When did sailing become a sideshow to everything else we have to deal with in a pandemic temporary importation documents and closed borders… it feels like we’re playing chess on three boards at the same time we feel the true direction and speed of the wind Our Anna Caroline is a steel heavy displacement boat the first day is miserable: slamming into the waves By Thursday we’re both exhausted and close to getting seasick hoping to get as far east of Madagascar as possible A strong westward current whips past the top of Madagascar we are in the middle of a wind acceleration zone the easier it will be to get past Cap d’Ambre and into the Mozambique Channel The easterly wind that our weather window promised doesn’t materialise both progress and enjoyment dulled by the shrieking wind and messy seas all around us Anna Caroline was built in 1989 in New Zealand under Category 1 rules: everything needs to be bolteddown After 600 miles, we get closer to the dreaded acceleration zone. Cap d’Ambre is a notorious compression zone thanks to its combination of the strong south-going Agulhas current and south-south-easterly winds which can easily reach up to 50 knots there The sun sets and another moonless night begins as we feel the increase in wind speed: 30 The shrill tone in the rigging is frightening with no telling where the next big wave will come from Our windvane has trouble steering the boat in the combination of a sideways current with the wind on the nose unable to anticipate the boat’s wild lurches Wietze grabs the wheel and starts steering by hand The darkness around us hides the worst of the seascape The wind increases again and so does the wave height “Hold on!” he shouts and a particularly large wave picks Anna Caroline up and pushes her over The windows in Anna Caroline’s superstructure were in the water but she shuddered a bit and came straight back up but again our Bruce Roberts 44 handles it flawlessly I pat the deck in a silent whisper: “thank you Anna Caroline.” “It almost looks like we are in surf,” Wietze shouts When I check the charts I find he may be right There is a sill just north of the cape where there’s a difference in depth of about 50m With these high winds and accelerated current The next day we see that the knockdowns and high winds disconnected our SSB antenna from the backstay and it is swinging around loosely The tonnes of seawater that pounded onto our deck have also revealed every little gap where it has found its way into the boat We look at the map and find a well-hidden bay on the north-west coast of Madagascar we can sneak into for rest and repairs we drop the hook in an awesome bay and hug with relief: 849 miles done We are very aware that we are not supposed to be here and hope that the Madagascar Coastguard is patrolling somewhere else we rush on deck to see a local fishing boat sailing past I’m beside myself with joy: I‘d hoped to see these traditional dhows in Madagascar we are both curious about each other’s boats In between making repairs we sit with our binoculars to observe the coast: beaches Madagascar lemurs are supposed to be here too but we can’t spot the primates from our forbidden anchorage We’re not the only ones who found this bay attractive; another yacht anchors close to us they have problems with their solar panels They ask if we have a spare 40A fuse and holder but don’t want to be spotted with dinghies in the water Instead their crew swim out to us to pick up the parts and we have a good laugh about the ridiculousness of the situation After two delightful days in the bay we need to move on The steady train of high and low pressure areas that pass south of South Africa squeeze a strong south-westerly wind up the Mozambique Channel every few days Swimming spare parts from boat to boat to avoid raising suspicions of having landed illegally When the strong south-going current meets this wind it creates a very dangerous steep sea that can easily break large ships So the trick is to avoid a situation like this There are no easy places to hide for a boat with our draught of 2.15m So our only choice is to sail on the edge of the current: when a south-westerly gale comes through we steer out of the current and heave to until it has passed And then we jump back onto the conveyer belt which nicely adds two knots to our boat speed The strong south-easterly trade winds limit the options we have for ‘playing’ with the current grateful for our decision to have new sails made half a year ago The old ones would have been in shreds by now Slowly we move south; the nights are getting shorter and colder After more than a year in the tropics we shiver when the temperature dives towards 24° and go from T-shirts and shorts to full foul weather gear in a matter of days And then what we feared happens: a big front approaches with strong south-westerly winds We are just rounding the last headland before we can steer a rhumbline course to Richards Bay in South Africa The headland compresses the south-going waterflow and we have three knots current with us How do we get out of it again so we can deal with the strong south-westerly winds “I think we’ll find a safer zone there,” Wietze points at the map the current will widen again and will decrease in speed we let the front pass to the west of us and then continue on.” We trim the sails for less speed and instantly it feels like we are on a pleasure cruise The incessant noise of crashing into the waves is gone the shrieking in the rigging is less and the boat is more upright read a book and potter along with a mere three knots “I’m actually enjoying this,” I say as I cut into a freshly baked loaf of bread I’m not sure if he means the sailing or the bread we sleep like babies and when the front has passed we’re energised to sail the last 200 miles We wake the next morning to an empty horizon “It’s as if the sea doesn’t like these conditions either,” Wietze ponders I agree: it is the strangest thing but we hardly see any wildlife or even fishing boats Large cargo ships seem to be travelling like a train on rails all following the exact same course and delightfully predictable We wait until the wind has died a little more and raise our sails again to enjoy a highly unusual 8 knots of boat speed It’s time to make a decision: do we arrive at night or not large bulk carriers go in and out all the time We both take a good look at the charts again and decide to go for it we see the harbour lights blinking in the dark Initially the bright leading lights make the approach easy We sail into port with just the radar and electronic charts to guide us The lady on duty at Richards Bay Port Control that evening has the most reassuring and professional voice: no large ships are moving On the concrete wall are our cruising friends The June 2025 issue of Yachting World is out now Sign in Join now, it's FREE! A Dutch family has built a Dijken bell tower in the backyard of their North Street home.  Dijken bell towers typically stand sentinel in cemeteries and are used to commemorate burials The Dineen family has always wanted a part of their heritage in their backyard which is why Annenieke has put her visiting brothers Henk and Wietze to work this week Annenieke moved to Orillia from Sint Nicolaasga in 1974 when she was 24 "I wanted to learn to speak English," she explained "I immigrated and started nursing school Annenieke hosts family from Friesland (a province in the Netherlands) or visits her home province almost every year Henk and Wietze made the trip for the first time in decades "In Holland all the land is flat," Henk explained the land has many hills and it's very big," Wietze added they enjoy visiting cousins and taking in the Canadian culture As home builders back in the Netherlands they enjoyed assembling the bell tower with their sister and brother-in-law in Orillia.  and no workshop," explained Annenieke's husband "I asked them if they could make us one with their expertise and they worked like beavers." The family has almost completed the 12-foot-tall structure in just a couple of days and a few visits to the hardware store.  The current bell on the Dineen family tower is only a placeholder as the family searches for a better one "It's been very hard to find," Annenieke explained "We need to find one that is about 10 inches." Gary finds the bell towers in the Netherlands to be beautiful which is why he's thrilled to have one of his own "We have everything here but the bell We might have the only one in Orillia." The Dineen family will add some more paint and a few accessories before officially calling the project complete Dijken bell towers can also be found in Sweden "It's a northwestern European thing," he said "There are lots in the Friesland province." Annenieke says her family had a lot of fun building the bell tower together "Henk and Wietze build houses together "It was a little more challenging without the proper equipment More Spotlight > Please include what you were doing when this page came up and the Cloudflare Ray ID found at the bottom of this page.