In order to maintain a degree of mental equilibrium this week, while awaiting the green light to run Baeza  in the May 3 151st Kentucky Derby (G1) John Shirreffs could have engaged in any number of distracting activities He had yet to finish "Inherent Vice." There was a Bergman festival on TCM could have killed an afternoon at the Muhammad Ali Center in downtown Louisville or the Vintage 99 Motorcycle Museum in the East End the trainer reached to the depths of his inner zen cued up a video of Doris Day singing "Que Sera Sera," and tried not to hold his breath for longer than a few minutes at a time I'm going to blame it on the butterfly," Shirreffs said as the hours ticked by in midweek without the scratch required to make room for Baeza Sign up for BloodHorse Daily playfully testing a conversational partner with thought problems or obscure references he was alluding to the term "butterfly effect" first used in the 1960s by Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorologist Edward Lorenz whose studies focused on the unpredictability of weather "You know how they say a butterfly can flap its wings on one side of the world and there's a tsunami on the other side," Shirreffs said "The interconnectedness of everything We're thinking that if maybe a butterfly just twitches a little." Then it happened, at around 5 p.m. May 1, when it was announced that Rodriguez  was scratched from the Derby field with a dicey foot Far from celebrating another's misfortune "I don't go there," Shirreffs said "We all live in glass houses around here." The work of Lorenz ultimately led to the broader concept of "chaos theory," defined as "a science of predicting the behavior of inherently unpredictable systems." In other words "Certain complex systems exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions," goes the theory "Alter those conditions even slightly and you'll produce wildly different results." the race also has been nudged toward possible alternative outcomes by the inclusion of Baeza with the added twist that he and Flavien Prat must break from the extreme outside post position of the 19 horses still in the race spent more than a week at Churchill Downs on planet limbo while his trainer kept adjusting the flame to keep his colt just this side of a boil "All the serious work had already happened," Shirreffs said "Now it's all about getting the horse to the race where he's not too fresh The only difference between Baeza here and back home in California is that I could have a workmate back home." Making his stakes bow in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Baeza gave favored Journalism  a hard target before losing by three-quarters of a length By some inexplicable whim of the Kentucky Derby points system the Santa Anita runner-up earned only 37.5 points "Life is full of things you can't do anything about," Shirreffs sighed Such heredity played a large part in his $1.2 million price tag as a Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase Baeza was named by the Searings for the five-time national champion and Hall of Fame jockey Braulio Baeza whose record included a Derby victory in 1963 on Chateaugay and three second-place finishes on the Hall of Fame ballot several years running Photo: Skip DicksteinGiacomo (left) wins the 2005 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs with the Holy Bull colt Giacomo for Ann and Jerry Moss which require Derby runners to be on the grounds at least seven days before the race Giacomo tiptoed into town on Wednesday of Derby week Shirreffs probably would have done that with Baeza if the rules had allowed "It was nice when you could have your last work on a track your horse is familiar with rather than go to a strange track and work on it But what about the idea of valuable time spent acclimating to a strange track Doesn't that support the idea of an earlier arrival "Not necessarily," Shirreffs said Their adrenaline isn't flowing as high as it is in the afternoon When they run at the strange track they're going to be in a race mode where they're pumped a lot higher and not really thinking about the surface and still Baeza was on the outside looking in Shirreffs might as well have paid Zenyatta visit over near Midway because you never know if there's an emergency," Shirreffs said my wife Dottie and the Mosses all went to the farm in Lexington and when we were in the paddock schooling he twisted a shoe loose on the rubber surface "I had to have his exercise rider run back to the barn and meet us at the gap with bandaging material because he could not walk on the pea gravel and asphalt of the backstretch without a shoe or he's going to bruise his foot." Then he would have been scratched—just like Rodriguez and Grande—and instead of Giacomo winning at odds of 50-1 the winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby would have been Closing Argument As Mott and the Godolphin team ponder possible next steps regarding their colt’s potential Triple Crown bid the connections of several other top Derby runners are similarly examining options for their runners The trainer said he would have conversations over the next few days with the owners and make a decision. Journalism is owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5, and Coolmore affiliates “We’ll give him a day or two to get his feet underneath him and see where we’re at,” McCarthy said “He’s run well back off of quick rest before Journalism made the first three starts of his career in a seven-week timeframe last fall, culminating in a Los Alamitos Futurity victory His 1 1/2-length defeat in the Derby was his first since finishing third at six furlongs in his career debut McCarthy earned his first Triple Crown race victory with Rombauer in the 2021 Preakness Stakes and would be grateful for another chance to contest the 1 3/16-mile classic race if the decision is made to run “It’s still very prestigious in its own right,” McCarthy said “I would like to win any Triple Crown race I would have liked to put the Derby in the books and worried about the rest of the stuff later Journalism will stay at Churchill Downs for the near future as final decisions are made. Should connections choose to skip the Preakness in favor of the June 7 Belmont Stakes, McCarthy said he would ship early to Saratoga Race Course McCarthy was visibly emotional about the defeat Sunday morning, but could not be more proud of the effort his Santa Anita Derby winner put forth “I thought he ran very well,” McCarthy said “It was unfortunate that he got pinched a little bit there leaving the gate He was a little bit further back beneath the wire the first time around than I would have liked but put in a wonderful run around the turn and was beaten by the horse I thought he had to beat.” McCarthy said he had been impressed by Sovereignty exiting the prep season and during training hours in the week before the Derby “I thought after the Florida Derby, even with as well as the winner [Tappan Street] ran I thought [Sovereignty] was the horse to beat,” he said “Coming out of the turn, as well as we were moving, I could see Junior [Alvarado on Sovereignty] was behind us moving just as well I thought it was just a matter of who was going to stick around longer Sovereignty stuck around a little longer than [Journalism] did.” Journalism’s jockey, Umberto Rispoli said after the race that he did not feel Journalism was comfortable early when racing on the sloppy going McCarthy said he is hopeful he will have another shot at Sovereignty this year saying he believed both horses will be in the conversation for Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old by year’s end “He’s as good as there is in his class this year He showed up and ran as advertised,” McCarthy said “Take nothing away from our horse yesterday Also running well in the Derby was C R K Stable and Grandview Equine’s Baeza After a stressful week for the connections as they waited to see whether he’d draw in off the also-eligible list the son of McKinzie rewarded their patience with a closing third-place finish “I don’t think he had the best of trips,” trainer John Shirreffs said “Running on an off-track for the first time that’s a little bit of a different experience Shirreffs said the Preakness is not under consideration for the half-brother (same dam [mother] different sire [father]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch we’d rather go back to California and regroup a little bit,” Shirreffs said He did mention that plans could change any time before the colt boarded the plane which was still an undetermined date as of Sunday morning Baeza is under consideration to have one more attempt at becoming Puca’s third classic winner in three years in the June 7 Belmont Stakes saying farewell to the colt’s many connections with “I had said prior to the Derby that the only way we would go to the Preakness is if we won the Derby,” Casse said about skipping the Preakness for the Belmont has sired four Belmont Stakes winners at the customary 1 1/2-mile distance the race will be held at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga Race Course while construction continues of a new grandstand at Belmont Park struggled a bit with the wet racetrack while racing at the tail-end of the field “He was not handling the kickback at all early on and that’s why he was so far back,” Casse said We’re gonna rebound and look at the Belmont.” Lynch reiterated his desire to return the son of Speightstown to shorter races but possibly the Woody Stephens next,” he told Churchill Downs publicity The Woody Stephens Stakes is a seven-furlong Grade 1 race on the Belmont Stakes undercard There was disappointment in the Japan camp as Luxor Cafe (12th) was impacted by a rough trip and Admire Daytona (19th) weakened in the slop Churchill Downs Asia representative Kate Hunter posted on X that both horses emerged in good order and could return to the United States later in the year to contest the Nov 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar Trainer Bob Baffert told Churchill Downs publicity Sunday morning that Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino winner Rodriguez who was scratched from the Derby with a foot bruise He has continued to train since his scratch Derby pacesetter and reigning 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull Trainer Todd Pletcher said Sunday morning that Toyota Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher River Thames remains possible for the Preakness The Maclean’s Music colt breezed four furlongs May 2 on Belmont Park’s training track in :48.75 State veterinarians scratched Pletcher’s lone Derby entrant, Grande, on May 2. His owner, Mike Repole said the colt was dealing with a cracked heel Pletcher stated Sunday morning that the Curlin colt will have a May 5 check-up with veterinarian Dr Larry Bramlage of Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital “We’ll see what we’re going to do from there,” Pletcher said On track at Churchill Downs on Sunday morning was Steve Asmussen-trained Preakness hopeful Clever Again Oaklawn Park’s Hot Springs Stakes winner jogged two miles on a sloppy track A Beginner’s Guide to the 150th Edition of the Preakness Stakes Sunday Silence: The Star No One Wanted 2025 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles: Evaluating Sovereignty’s Chances in Preakness, Belmont Stakes Ten Unforgettable Kentucky Derby Upsets A Beginner’s Guide to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Sixteen Things to Know About the Kentucky Derby 2021 Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet Preakness Quick Sheet: Get to Know the 2021 Preakness Horses Get to Know All 13 U.S. Triple Crown Winners NBC Sports Reports Largest Kentucky Derby Audience Since 1989 Five Takeaways You Need to Know From an Action-Packed Kentucky Derby Weekend SLIDESHOW: Get to Know 2025 Kentucky Derby Winner Sovereignty Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights and Thoroughbred racing.Follow AuthorMay 03 01:53pm EDTShareSaveComment@font-face{font-family: "Schnyder"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders-bold-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders/schnyders-bold-webfont.woff") format("woff"); font-weight: 700; font-style: normal;} @font-face{font-family: "Merriweather"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/merriweather/merriweather-bold-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/merriweather/merriweather-bold-webfont.woff") format("woff"); font-weight: 700; font-style: normal;} @font-face{font-family: "Graphik"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/graphik/graphik-bold.woff2") format("woff2") 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.subhead3-embed.font-accent #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed .font-accent{font-family: Graphik,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;}The Man To Beat: Journalism flicks his tail in a light morning gallop yesterday The Kentucky Derby’s towering chaos sets it well apart from the two succeeding Triple Crown races — for the runners it’s as if they’ve been tacked up and dropped with their jockeys into a Category 5 hurricane Everybody’s out to get everybody any which way but at the Derby there are twice as many athletes out there doing that Despite the 151st Kentucky Derby’s bumptious formation of its field — three scratches in this past race week — via its “Road To The Derby,” Churchill has drawn the talent to set up a number of fine But before we arrive at whether a possible stretch duel between Journalism and Baeza would resemble the finish of the Santa Anita Derby Note: The track money is well and truly awake and chattering like mad out at Churchill now so we’ll be listing the live odds below and reporting commenting and updating them as the afternoon progresses toward post time the live odds diverge from the morning line It should be noted at the outset that rain is threatening in Louisville right now that upends a few assessments and even topples what might be called “certainties.” Notable points of diversion: Sovereignty has come way down in probability to win Last-man-in Baeza hasn’t quite descended that far in implied probability to win but his tanking from 12-1 to 19-1 is certainly a big drop and attractive to players who are looking for a good price the third of the five on the tier behind Journalism has only come down (in implied probability to win) by half a point and you have the sense that players are waiting to see what the money does to his competitition and whether the weather gods will thunder in and upend the tote More on this point as the clock ticks on down to post time To some of the interior battles: Baeza doesn’t seem like a colt that is easily spooked because the enormous differences between the Derby and every other race these colts have known are clear the moment the gates slam open The “freak-ability” factor can be more or less remote depending upon the athlete’s history and his or her pedigree but the reality is that no matter how well an exercise rider jockey or trainer actually thinks he or she might truly know their three-year-old Triple Crown candidate the collective mental state of the Class of 2025 can be reasonably compared to that of a gaggle of 15-year-old high-school freshman football players but definitely also susceptible to heavy hormonal herky-jerkiness and Hence the trainers’ longtime obsession with creating a pool of calm focus on the work Baeza is “considered” three for the purposes of the race but won’t actually turn three until this summer who rode him to place in the Santa Anita Derby had this to say after Baeza’s rather notable come-back at the finish: “He is a baby still and loses focus ‘Come on now.’ Then when he felt the other horse (Journalism) That’s as graphic and perfect a description of a three-year-old racehorse as it gets which is why Baeza’s main battle in the Kentucky Derby will not be with Journalism — even if he’s fortunate enough to land in another stretch battle with Journalism Baeza’s main battle in the Kentucky Derby later this afternoon is with himself May 2 (UPI) -- The complexion of Saturday's 151st Kentucky Derby changed fairly dramatically late Thursday, as trainer Bob Baffert scratched one of his two contenders opening the door for the lone also-eligible most of those races should be hotly contested adding to both the enjoyment and betting prospects "You have to be just perfect," Baffert said The inclusion of Baeza is important as he finished second in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby in his last start the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby Baeza actually led into deep stretch in the Santa Anita race before Journalism got by him Baeza, listed as No. 21, will start from the outside, No. 20 gate Saturday and jockey Flavien Prat will have to find a way around and through traffic from there the final weekend of Derby preparations has been blessedly uneventful except for one thing -- the weather Forecasters earlier thought mid-week rain would be gone by Saturday they call for steady rain early in the day with showers in the afternoon Here's a brief listing of the plethora of graded stakes surrounding the big race: Travers winner and Breeders' Cup Classic runner-up Fierceness hooks up with Cigar Mile and Santa Anita Handicap winner Locked in Friday's $750,000 Grade II Alysheba at Churchill Downs Hall of Fame and/or Most Wanted also rate in a cast of six Mystik Dan is in Saturday's $200,000 Lake Ouachita at Oaklawn Park The Goldencents colt finished second in last year's Preakness most recently finishing ninth in the Pegasus World Cup in January He's second-favorite here behind recent allowance winner Awesome Aaron Friday's $1 million Grade I La Troienne at Churchill Downs has reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna aiming for her fifth straight win and seventh Grade I triumph The best of the other six already have finished well behind her Saturday's $1 million Grade I Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic at Churchill Downs Saturday's $1 million Grade I American Turf for 3-year-olds at Churchill Downs Saturday's $200,000 Grade II Charles Whittingham at Santa Anita Friday's $175,000 Grade III Sheepshead Bay at Aqueduct Friday's $600,000 Grade II Edgewood for 3-year-old fillies at Churchill Downs Friday's $400,000 Grade III Modesty at Churchill Downs Sunday's $175,000 Grade III Beaugay at Aqueduct Sunday's $100,000 Santa Barbara at Santa Anita Bridle a Butterfly was last early and first when it counted in Wednesday's $300,000 William Walker for 3-year-olds at Churchill Downs The Country House gelding won by 1/2 length over Out on Bail while finishing 5 1/2 furlongs on firm going in 1:01.76 under John Velazquez Friday's $400,000 Grade III Unbridled Sidney for fillies and mares at Churchill Downs Saturday's $150,000 Elusive Quality at Aqueduct Saturday's $600,000 Grade II Twin Spires Turf Sprint at Churchill Downs Sunday's $150,000 License Fee for fillies and mares at Aqueduct Trainer Cherie DeVaux got her Derby week off to a rousing start as Brilliant Berti rallied from well back to win Thursday's $350,000 Opening Verse at Churchill Downs by 1/2 length as the favorite DeVaux has hot prospects both Friday and Saturday Saturday's $750,000 Grade II Longines Churchill Distaff Mile Saturday's $85,000 Honey Ryder for 3-year-old fillies at Gulfstream Park Baffert got his Derby week off to a good start by saddling Fort Bragg to a 1 1/2-length victory in Thursday's $200,000 St Saturday's $1 million Grade I Churchill Downs Stakes Saturday's $600,000 Grade II Pat Day Mile for 3-year-olds at Churchill Downs Saturday's $200,000 Knicks Go at Churchill Downs Sunday's $175,000 Grade III Westchester at Aqueduct Sunday's $100,000 (Canadian) Thorncliffe at Woodbine Friday's $600,000 Grade II Eight Belles for 3-year-old fillies at Churchill Downs Saturday's $1 million Grade I Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs Saturday's $150,000 (Canadian) Grade III Whimsical on the Woodbine all-weather Sunday's $175,000 Grade III Vagrancy at Aqueduct While American racing is fixated on Churchill Downs this weekend most of the rest of the world will be watching Newmarket home of Saturday's Group 1 2,000 Guineas and Sunday's Group 1 1,000 Guineas We await final declarations for the fillies' race on Sunday but be assured the lineup will include the same connections at or near the top of the odds board Sunday's Tenno Sho (Spring) at Kyoto Racecourse the longest of the Japan Racing Association Grade 1 events at 3,200 meters or about 2 miles promises to be a test of stamina for some relatively young Japanese runners leaving it to runner-up Blow the Horn and the 2023 winner Promising 4-year-olds include Grade 2 Hanshin Daishoten winner Sunrise Earth and Redentor runner-up in last October's Group 1 Kikuka Sho at 3,000 meters in the final furlong of Thursday's Group 1 Gran Premio Criadores at the Hipodromo de Palermo in Buenos Aires won by 1 length over that rival and earned a "Win and You're In" spot in the $2 million Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff on Nov the connections of Kentucky Derby contender Rodriguez announced that he will scratch from the prestigious race due to a foot bruise we have made a very tough decision to scratch our Derby horse “He has a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise that will need a few more days we are resetting our plans and will target him for the Preakness.” longshot contender Baeza now draws in for the 151st Run for the Roses Trainer Bob Baffert has scratched Rodriguez from Saturday's Kentucky Derby. With the defection of Rodriguez, Baeza has drawn into the field. pic.twitter.com/WCCqT2yfCb This son of McKinzie and Puca profiles as an intriguing last-minute addition to a talented 2025 Kentucky Derby field of 20 Sire: McKinzie was a solid runner who won four Grade 1 races most notably winning the 2019 Whitney Stakes (G1) and the 2019 Alysheba Stakes (G2) The son of 2007 Kentucky Derby champion Street Sense also earned a solid runner-up finish in the 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr Dam: Puca is a daughter of Big Brown who does not need much introduction The 2008 Eclipse Award winner won the 2008 Kentucky Derby as well as the 2008 Haskell Invitational Stakes (Gr This will be jockey Flavien Prat’s 10th Derby mount after most-notably finishing first in 2019 aboard Country House (via Maximum Security’s disqualification) Prat has posted four additional in-the-money finishes since 2017: Hot Rod Charlie (2nd Shirreffs will be entering his fifth horse in the Kentucky Derby Shirreffs lone win came back in 2005 with longshot Giacomo (50-1) Baeza had officially drawn into the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby! Baeza is the son (Mckinzie) of our mare, Broodmare of the Year, PUCAFor the third consecutive year she will be represented in the Kentucky Derby, the first being the 2023 winner, MAGE. Our thoughts… https://t.co/PsCQ3j1CJC pic.twitter.com/CcloeDUaom Baeza has a career record of one win with two second-place finishes in four career starts The young colt has progressed in each of his starts finally breaking his maiden in his third start at Santa Anita Park by 4 ¾ lengths at a distance of one-mile maiden on the dirt Following his first trip to the winners circle he earned a runner-up finish behind Derby favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) On that day he gave Journalism all he could handle Baeza has steadily improved his Equibase Speed figures in each of his four starts (82-94-104-107) Baeza is currently being offered at odds of 29-1 after opening at 12-1 late Thursday The half brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch will likely be the wise-guy horse of this year’s Kentucky Derby after drawing in from the AE list The addition of top jockey Flavien Prat in the saddles makes Baeza a serious contender to hit the board at double-digit odds on Saturday 2025 Kentucky Derby: Is There A Longshot That Can Beat Journalism? 2025 Kentucky Derby: Deep Longshot Sleepers Who Could Outrun Their Odds 2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Publisher History and PredictionsnumberFire Racing4dSubscribe to our newsletter LinkThe 151st Kentucky Derby is nearly here and the field of three-year-old horses is set Baeza was a late addition to the field as an alternate but has run hot on the Road to the Kentucky Derby You can bet on which horse will win the Kentucky Derby with FanDuel Racing and FanDuel Sportsbook Stay updated on the Kentucky Derby odds and contenders as we approach the Run for the Roses Baeza's Kentucky Derby morning line odds are 12-1 (+1200) Baeza Trainer and Jockey2005 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer John A Shirreffs should have Baeza locked and loaded ahead of the 2025 Derby Shireffs is responsible for three Triple Crown top-threes -- all of which occurred before 2010 Baeza has one of the top jockeys in the field in Flavien Prat Prat won the Eclipse Award Outstanding Jockey in 2024 during which he ranked 1st among all jockeys in earnings Baeza only has 1 win across 4 starts but has placed top-two in three consecutive races They've posted compelling speed scores over their last two races enough to rank 3rd in the field for average speed score in the last three races That includes a 2nd-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby in early April Speed Scores via Equibase Baeza is tied for the fourth-shortest odds to win the Derby entering the weekend With arguably the top jockey in racing and encouraging recent speed scores Baeza is certainly a contender at the 2025 Kentucky Derby there's a lot to like with what could be an underrated horse at Churchill Downs Check out the FanDuel TV Grande Kentucky Derby contender profile below Looking for more horse racing betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Racing to see all of today’s horse racing odds Subscribe to our newsletterWant more stories like this Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news LinkRecent StoriesTuesday’s MLB Home Run Props - May 6 Data Skrive•2h Tuesday’s MLB Strikeout Props - May 6 Guardians vs Nationals Prediction, Odds, Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under for May 6 Data Skrive•3h Tuesday’s MLB Odds, Betting Lines and Predictions - May 6 Hurricanes vs Capitals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NHL Playoffs Second Round Game 1 Data Skrive•4h Up & Adams: Monday, May 5th, 2025 but the waiting game of seeing if a scratch would occur and allow him to draw in as an alternate drew on as Derby week progressed "It was not a fun few days there," said Robert Clay of Grandview Equine who bred the colt and co-owns with C R K Stables "We didn't know how it was going to go (Trainer) John (Shirreffs) and I sat here for about four hours yesterday (May 1) just trying to figure out what was going on." Lee Searing of C R K Stables was hesitant to get on the plane from California until it was official that Baeza would run but his children were able to convince him to board a flight Thursday afternoon "I said we're not coming until today (Friday) when the scratches are in," Searing said on the Churchill Downs backstretch Friday morning let's go.' I relented and we got on the plane." Perhaps Searing getting on the plane was all the racing gods required as, while the Searing family was in the air, Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) winner Rodriguez  was withdrawn with a foot issue and Baeza drew into the starting gate READ: Rodriguez Scratched From Kentucky Derby he found out right away as his children were connected to the internet and reported the news as it broke "The horse deserves to be in," Searing said of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up we don't have to get nervous for the race," Clay said "We'll let the horse do the talking." "This probably is the best chance we've had," Searing said "This horse has a little more ability to stay closer up and stay out of trouble All I've been in is trouble here in the Kentucky Derby Maybe we stay out of trouble this time." Despite being one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders Baeza was not officially in the Derby field until Friday when Rodriguez had to scratch from the race the lightly raced colt has a big shot to take down the roses we'll dig further into Baeza as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday We'll look back into his past performances what questions need to be answered Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances who is best known for training fan favorite and Hall of Fame runner Zenyatta Baeza has come a long way in a short period of time He didn't make his debut until December (in a turf race no less) and didn't break his maiden until Feb Other speed figures have the race even faster But it was his next performance that established Baeza as a serious racehorse he ran wide around the first turn and moved early into a fast pace to confront leader Citizen Bull only to be caught by Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism and losing by ¾ lengths Baeza earned a 101 Beyer for that effort and arguably ran a better race than Journalism in that race when factoring in the ground loss Journalism encountered traffic trouble on both turns.) Baeza would need to turn the tables on Journalism but there's a possibility that the lightly raced Baeza has a chance to improve Saturday while Journalism does not Baeza drew into the field only after Rodriguez had to scratch from the race Baeza will leave from the far outside post 20 post is not ideal and could lead to ground loss it's better than not being in the field at all jockey Flavien Prat is very conscious about saving ground with all of his mounts so expect him to get Baeza over as much as possible and decided to scratch due to a hoof bruise Co-owner Tom Ryan announced the news via X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday evening The scratch comes in the first year Baffert is able to run in the Kentucky Derby after a three-year suspension tracks and the Kentucky Derby after Medina Spirit failed a drug test and was disqualified from his win in the 2021 Kentucky Derby Baffert unsuccessfully fought the ban in court for several years and was reinstated in July of 2024 after issuing a statement accepting responsibility.Rodriguez is no worse for wear and connections will regroup to aim at the Preakness Stakes in two weeks' time.The scratch also opens the door for this year's lone also-eligible The John Shirreffs-trained son of McKinzie ran a bang-up second to Journalism in his last start The half-brother to Classic winners Mage and Dornoch Baeza was on the outside looking in thanks to a new rule governing small fields this year Churchill Downs only awarded 75 percent of the available Kentucky Derby points if five horses ran in a major prep race instead of the 50 points on offer for running second in the Santa Anita Derby pushing him well down the leaderboard.Jockey Flavien Prat Luis Saez will get the mount on Neoequos.  She is a graduate of the University of Louisville's Equine Industry Program She is passionate about equine advocacy and bettering the human-equine relationship.  The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby which is Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville and Baeza will take his place in the 20-horse field who opened at 12-1 but had seen his odds shorten to 6-1 as the week wore on was scratched due to a bruised foot by trainer Bob Baffert on Thursday evening and his scratch means every horse from 5 to 20 will move in one post position on race day Baeza finished second in the Santa Anita Derby on April 26 will be ridden by Flavien Prat and has $148,500 Baeza was purchased for $1.2 million in 2023 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and the owners are C R K Stable (Lee and Susan Searing) and Grandview Equine Shirreffs won the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacomo 2005 The 151st Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs is set for Saturday Streaming options will be available on Fubo (which offers a free trial) and Peacock Date: Saturday, May 3, 2025Time: 5:57 p.m. CT/4:57 p.m. MTTV: NBC, USA NetworkStream: Fubo, PeacockLocation: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)Updated 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup: Odds, trainer and jockey1. Citizen Bull 2. Neoequos 3. Final Gambit 4. Rodriguez 5. American Promise 6. Admire Daytona 7. Luxor Cafe 8. Journalism 9. Burnham Square 10. Grande 11. Flying Mohawk 12. East Avenue 13. Publisher 14. Tiztastic 15. Render Judgment 16. Coal Battle 17. Sandman 18. Sovereignty 19. Chunk of Gold 20. Owen Almighty 21. Baeza Chavez can be reached at fchavez@elpasotimes.com; @Fchavezeptimes on X Bob Baffert trainee Rodriguez has been scratched from Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs because of a foot bruise co-owner Tom Ryan announced via X on Thursday afternoon He has a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise that will need a few more days 🏇: Live updates: Live updates at Kentucky Oaks 2025: Hats are here, and they're big this year Rodriguez won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 5 at Aqueduct and was considered to be among the pace-setters for the Kentucky Derby Baffert still has one Kentucky Derby horse in 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull “I thought he ran a remarkable race,” trainer John Shirreffs said Because the Santa Anita Derby had only five runners Baeza earned just 37.5 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby instead of the typical allotment of 50 Shirreffs won the Run for the Roses with 50-1 shot Giacomo in 2005 Flavien Prat, previously on Neoequos Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com There's been a late scratch to the field for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday and an intriguing new contender is joining the race Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert co-owner Tom Ryan said in a post on X late Thursday afternoon "He has a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise that will need a few more days Baeza will now join the field for Saturday's Kentucky Derby and the John Shirreffs-trained horse becomes a compelling pick for the first Triple Crown race of the year The half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage finished second behind Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last month but didn't receive enough points to initially qualify for this year's Run for the Roses due to the size of the field at Santa Anita Baeza instead spent this week at Churchill Downs as the top of the also-eligible list for the 20-horse field hoping for a development like the one announced Thursday the connections of two other top contenders from this year’s Kentucky Derby announced they will be skipping the Preakness Stakes Rather than wheeling back Baeza and Sandman in just two weeks for the second leg of the Triple Crown the teams of both talented colts will instead aim for the Belmont Stakes on June 7 After drawing into the Derby field following the scratch of Rodriguez earning his third consecutive triple-digit Equibase speed figure (101) via a solid third-place finish in the Derby We could not be more proud of Baeza today & his 3rd place finish! He finished strong & we are hopeful of what’s to come. Congrats to Sovereignty & Journalism- so well done! Thanks to Team Baeza- we’ll be back 💜💛💜 pic.twitter.com/IcWZ452FI8 Despite the impressive showing trainer John Shirreffs stated on Sunday that Baeza will not run in the Preakness “Quite a trip for him the whole week,” Shirreffs said Then that big field and the bumping that went on he ran well and we’re very proud of him.”  The half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch will likely be one of the top contenders in the 2025 running of the 1 ½ mile “Test of Champions" Pats for Sandman ❤️ pic.twitter.com/O15hGZZhpn Off his seventh place Kentucky Derby finish trainer Mark Casse stated that Sandman will likely follow the same route as Baeza opting to skip the “The Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown” “More than likely Belmont, but crazier things have happened,” Casse told David Grening of the Daily Racing Form who was beaten by 12 ½ lengths as the second overall betting choice will for sure be among the top betting choices once again in the Belmont Stakes due to his pedigree as well as previously breaking his maiden over the dirt surface His sire Tapit has sired Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist (2014) We need to highlight that this year’s Belmont Stakes will run on Saturday June 7 at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs due to the ongoing construction at Belmont Park Kentucky Derby Winner Sovereignty May Not Race In Preakness Stakes Sovereignty Makes History, Wins the 151st Kentucky Derby Good Cheer Wins 2025 Kentucky Oaks, Remains Unbeaten The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only Betting and gambling content is intended for individuals 21+ and is based on individual commentators' opinions and not that of Sports Illustrated or its affiliates All picks and predictions are suggestions only and not a guarantee of success or profit If you or someone you know has a gambling problem crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Rodriguez has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, leaving trainer Bob Baffert with one entry in his return to Churchill Downs after serving a three-year suspension leaving fellow Hall of Famer Mike Smith without a mount in what would have been his record-extending 29th Derby start There was no immediate reason given for the scratch in pursuit of a record-breaking seventh Derby win 1 post and will be under pressure to break quickly before the rest of the field comes over on him Baeza will make the field of 20 3-year-olds The colt has been on the grounds since last week training in the hopes he would get in Baeza was runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby last month A Division of NBCUniversal DISCLAIMER: This site and the products offered are for entertainment purposes only and there is no gambling offered on this site This service is intended for adult audiences No guarantees are made for any specific outcome Rodriguez was declared out of the Kentucky Derby on Thursday night due to a foot bruise opening the door for also-eligible Baeza to draw in We explain how that shakes up the jockey and post assignments The Kentucky Derby odds saw a major shakeup on Thursday night as Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez was forced to withdraw due to a foot bruise who was 12-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line I'll explain the ramifications of the scratch of Rodriguez below plus a look at the early line movement for the 2025 Run for the Roses on Saturday Horses are listed here by their Kentucky Derby odds set by Churchill Downs' Mike Battaglia, with their Kentucky Derby post positions on the left **bet365 Kentucky Derby odds are not available in the United States Baeza trainer John Shirreffs asked for “a gift from the gods,” to get his horse into the Kentucky Derby and he got his wish as Rodriguez scratched due to a foot bruise on Thursday night we are resetting our plans and will target him for the Preakness The Wood Memorial winner will regroup and point to the Preakness Stakes two weeks from Saturday who will break from Post 20 as every runner in the field drawn outside of Rodriguez slots in one position.  Baeza, 12-1 on the Derby morning line, was a game second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby when last seen. But the mere 37.5 qualifying points he picked up for that effort put him behind quite a few Kentucky Derby horses He needed some defections just to enter as an also-eligible Baeza is now running in Louisville on Saturday Reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat will be aboard Baeza That assignment has been taken by Luis Saez Neoequos picked up some minor awards on the Florida road to the Derby but added distance combined with the waters getting deeper are unlikely to help his cause Saez has yet to win a Kentucky Derby (albeit he crossed the wire first on the DQ'd Maximum Security in 2019) but is a well-respected rider coming off a solid performance at the Keeneland meet and he picked up four wins on Churchill's Tuesday program morning-line favorite Journalism is sitting as the 7-2 public choice is the only other runner at less than 10-1 have taken a good chunk of the early money it should be noted that over $100 million was wagered just in the win/place/show pools in last year's Kentucky Derby and less than $2 million is sitting in those pools for the 2025 rendition as of Friday morning Criscola’s road to becoming a Covers publishing editor began with an internship at Metro New York which eventually turned into a freelance job at MetroBet covering many sports from a wagering angle He continued to focus on “The Sport of Kings” by writing for shapperdacapper.com and informer.fanxt.com before joining the team at the TwinSpires Edge in 2019 as a regular contributor and weekend editor “Crisco” began writing game previews for Covers in 2022 and joined the editing team in 2023 Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker The field for the 2025 Kentucky Derby got a big shakeup on Thursday afternoon when one major contender had to pull out of the race allowing another major contender to get in who is trained by six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert had to be scratched from Saturday's race because of a minor foot bruise The speed colt was coming off a gate-to-wire win in the Wood Memorial on April 5 and was the co-fourth choice on the Kentucky Derby morning line at 12-1 The defection of Rodriguez made room in the 20-horse Derby field for Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza Baeza needed one horse to come out of the race before the deadline of 9 a.m The connections of the horse had been on pins and needles for weeks wondering if the talented but lightly raced colt would get to race in the first leg of the Triple Crown sent out the following message on social media: "As we've said all week this isn't the ideal way to get into the Derby and our thoughts are with the Rodriguez team and yet we're here and ready to give it our best shot Now that he's in the field, Baeza is among the favorites, the co-fourth choice on the morning line at 12-1. He is coming off an impressive second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, losing by less than a length to Journalism, the 3-1 Derby favorite. Get full Kentucky Derby analysis and expert picks at SportsLine. Baeza's career-high 101 Beyer Speed Figure is second only to Journalism's career high (108) among the Derby horses His half-brother Mage won the Kentucky Derby two years ago won the Belmont and Haskell Stakes last year Rodriguez entered the week as Baffert's best chance to win a record-breaking seventh Kentucky Derby in his return to the race The trainer has missed the last three Derbies while serving a three-year suspension handed down by Churchill Downs after his Medina Spirit failed a postrace exam after crossing the finish line first in the 2021 Derby Baffert said Thursday that Rodriguez's foot bruise is minor and that he will target to run in the Preakness Stakes on May 17 "You have to be perfect," Baffert told FanDuel TV about the decision to scratch Rodriguez We'll just point to the Preakness with him." Neither horse was better than Baeza at that juncture of their careers If Baeza gets in the field — he is sitting at 21 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard — he could deliver Shirreffs' second Kentucky Derby victory Baeza finished second to Rodriguez in a mile, maiden special weight race at Santa Anita. He led Derby favorite Journalism before being overtaken down the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby “Because he ran so well against the favorite in the Kentucky Derby I think that's a good indication of where he stands amongst the 3-year-olds.” Baeza’s second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby would have earned him enough qualifying points in every year prior to this one points were reduced to 75% due to a rule that just changed this year Had a sixth horse entered the Santa Anita Derby Baeza would have received the full 50 points for second place and would not have to sweat out the week waiting to see if there will be a scratch before 9 a.m Shirreffs was noncommittal on whether that rule needs to be repealed calling those decisions “above his responsibilities.” But what he feels sure about is that Baeza is one of the 20 best 3-year-olds out there Shirreffs admitted he initially thought he’d wait to run Baeza in the Preakness Stakes and skip the Run for the Roses altogether But after discussing the path with owners at C R K Stable and Grandview Equine they decided it was worth trying to get into the Derby Shirreffs suggested not even shipping the horse to Kentucky unless it was already in the field He got in but developed a fever during the week and had to withdraw That would make Baeza Shirreffs’ sixth Derby horse if he makes the field who won on Shirreffs’ first appearance in the Run for the Roses Baeza was sired by McKinzie out of the Big Brown mare Puca so Shirreffs doesn't think distance will be a problem in the Derby “Everything in his pedigree screams a mile and a quarter or a mile and a half,” Shirreffs said “So I would assume because of the way he works and the way he gallops Baeza’s potential is good enough to make jockey Flavien Prat want to play the waiting game Prat will only ride Neoequos if Baeza does not get in Shirreffs begins what he describes as the awkward process of preparing to run while having to wait for another horse to have some misfortune and potentially have an owner or trainer have their dreams of running in the Derby crushed “It's tough to come over here and not know you're gonna run and then to wait to see if somebody else has to scratch “You want everybody to enjoy their Derby experience but because he has that opportunity it'd be a shame if something like that (scratch) happened and he wasn't here to run.” He doesn’t put them in races until he believes they are ready Shirreffs is at Churchill Downs with a horse that is more than ready but doesn’t have a spot in the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday Baeza, who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby, is on the outside looking in, needing one horse to scratch before Friday morning to make the starting field. The term is “also eligible,” meaning eligible if a spot opens. “It’s very awkward,” Shirreffs said standing outside Barn 41 on the Churchill Downs backstretch. “It’s tough to come over here and not know you’re going to run. And then to wait to see if somebody has to scratch, and that’s not something you hope for. You want everybody to enjoy their Derby experience. So, it’s very awkward, but because he has that opportunity it would be a shame if something like that happened and he wasn’t here to run.” Sports But can they beat favorite Journalism in horse racing’s crown jewel Normally the second-place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby is guaranteed a spot in Louisville because of the 50 points earned with the result But this year Churchill Downs started penalizing races that do not have enough starters This year’s Santa Anita Derby had five starters Baeza has 37.5 points while the horse in front of him Render Judgment made the field when Tappan Street sustained a minor injury and was pulled from the race Shirreffs is not only patient but cautious too based on his answer about the fairness of the new Derby points rules that’s the system and there is no changing that,” Shirreffs said It’s just unfortunate it happened to Baeza this year.” Shirreffs’ original plan was to skip the Derby and point to the Preakness Stakes so he wouldn’t be in this position “But after analyzing the situation and the possibilities and Clay decided why not take a chance and see if he gets in,” Shirreffs said referring to owners Lee Searing and Robert Clay Two years ago Shirreffs was at Churchill Downs ready to put Skinner in the Derby The Santa Anita Derby was the only points race for Baeza As a May foal he was a little late developing It took him three tries to break his maiden and his fourth race was the Santa Anita Derby Shirreffs grew up around horses since his father owned them. He didn’t immediately go into the horse business but instead joined the Marines and was shipped to Vietnam. “When I got back from Vietnam, I had no place to go,” Shirreffs said. “But I had a friend who knew somebody, so they said, ‘Come on out west, John.’ So, I came out west.” Initially, Shirreffs worked on a cattle ranch in Lincoln, Calif., 10 miles north of Roseville. “So, here I am a New Yorker,” he said. “I don’t know anything about that except I’ve seen a lot of cowboy movies. So, Jim Matthews pulls up in his trailer, he has his horse set, he backs his horse out of the trailer. He’s got a Queensland Hill or an Australian Shepherd [dog]. He jumps up on his horse. … He takes out his rope, he slaps his horse and off he goes over to the brush. Oh my God, that’s a cowboy.” Shirreffs went to work for Matthews but it paid only room and board. One day Matthews gave Shirreffs a horse to sell. Journalism, the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby at 3-1 odds, will start in a tactically favorable position for race’s 151st edition on Saturday. “I’m riding this horse across this field and I get stuck in this mud bog,” Shirreffs said. “It just so happens at this place, there’s a manager from a thoroughbred farm standing up on the hill. I get the horse out of the mud and Henry Freitus [of Loma Rica Horse Ranch] says to me ‘John, you like to come and work for me?’ And I said, well, sure, you know, I get paid here, right? “One day in he says, ‘John, you want to take my horses to the fairs?’ I said, ‘Sure, Henry, I’d love to do that.’ That’s how it all started. You know, I never planned it and the opportunity just presented itself each time and when I was fortunate enough … and with my experience, whatever level, got me to the next level.” As for this wait-and-see week, he’ll have his answer by 9 a.m. Friday. High School Sports Dodgers Subscribe for unlimited accessSite Map and Thoroughbred racing.Follow AuthorApr 30 03:58pm EDTShareSaveComment@font-face{font-family: "Schnyder"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders-bold-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed .font-accent{font-family: Graphik,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;}Kentucky Derby alternate Baeza works out at Churchill Downs Monday Just a week out from the $5-million 151st running of the Kentucky Derby top contender Tappan Street was scratched by his team for a condylar fracture to move up into Churchill’s spanking big 20-horse gate this pulled the Derby hopeful just below in the points ranking the superbly talented Santa Anita Derby place runner Baeza into the Derby’s official waiting room as the alternate entry Churchill would assign Baeza a post position But before we take the deep dive into how this came about here’s the refresher Derby field as constituted at this writing When Render Judgement was called into the race the print press as well as influential online discussions in the larger pre-Derby stream were struck by the many deep ironies of the modestly talented Render Judgement being bestowed a stall in the Derby gate before glaringly disproportionate to his athletic gifts runs directly counter to the core raison d’etre of the Derby’s points system which was instituted twelve years ago to distill the talent selected for the Kentucky Derby gate The idea is not to fill the Kentucky Derby gate with also-rans The nominal goal is to fill that gate with stellar athletes What we can call Baeza’s special Derby Purgatory precisely illuminates the specific irritant that caused his relegation outside the main body of entrants Churchill Downs instituted a punitive tweak to the point system track boards of directors and stewards across the country were made well aware of it going into the early preps last year The rule tweak runs thusly: If a prep race attracts a field of at least six runners (and up) just 75% of the (formerly assigned) points will be awarded If a prep race attracts less than five runners the rule affected the horses who ran in early low-point-award prep races less—by definition there’s far less numerical value between 10 points for a place showing and 7.5 points for that same place in a field of five runners But the rule more directly targeted the horses in the five big decisive “win-and-you’re-in” hundred-point races this March and April with bigger reductions The math of those slices off the point totals was merciless: Should a big prep draw a field of less than five a 50-point second place was reduced to a 25-point place showing which can mean the difference between getting a stall in the Churchill gate and not getting to race that meant that the horses who succeeded in getting into those big those horses with better chances to enter the Kentucky Derby also carry a higher risk of being shut out of the Derby should they find themselves running in a prep not assessed as “worthy” of full points by Churchill The larger problem is that the mechanism of the Derby-point reduction as it is now—as defined by Churchill for the supposed foul of the race having drawn a small field—first implies a foul or infraction where there was none then grossly misplaces the punishment for it the responsibility of any trainer in any race that a horse he’s running against gets scratched that trainer and every other trainer in the race is penalized for it Thoroughbred athletes are pointed at races then swerve off if they’re not properly ready or are forced to swerve off by veterinarians if they’re not healthy It’s what the process of building a horse race is Collectively punishing randomly assembled trainers their athletes and/or other tracks (than Churchill the author of the rule) for the process of trying to put a horse race together doesn’t equate It may not have been intended to work this way but it amounts to a denial of sporting due process It will remain a great irony that the Santa Anita is considered one of the top two prep races in the 2025 Kentucky Derby selection process What follows may or may not have been the direct intent behind Churchill’s rule change it certainly figured as the standout major effect: Of the five biggest Grade 1 Derby prep races with ordinary point awards for the top five placers on the highest 100-50-25-15-10 scale the only race hit with a point reduction was the Santa Anita Derby in which Journalism and Baeza ran first and second it’s well known that Santa Anita draws smaller fields than the big preps in Florida Kentucky and New York for the simple reason that far less of the racing industry is seated in the western United States The lion’s share of the racing industry resides in a vast crescent east of the Continental Divide beginning in Kentucky and in the Deep South sweeping up the Atlantic Seaboard to include New York Those eastern trainers are not going have their athletes undergo the stress of flying out to California for the Santa Anita Derby if they can avoid it by getting a hundred Derby points closer to home in the Blue Grass or the Arkansas Derby stuck literally 3000 miles east of Belmont Park is the major American prep most vulnerable to Churchill’s point reduction rule and that is exactly how the Derby point-cookie crumbled under the new rule in 2025 point-reduction rule will continue to have a far greater impact on Santa Anita and more generally on the breeding and racing industry in California than on any other major track hosting a big Derby prep To their credit, in announcing their 2025 point reductions for Santa Anita Churchill was at pains to point out the high quality of the field Baeza came into that race without any earlier his connections had pointed him to the Santa Anita in the hope of him at least second earning just the curious 75% fraction of 37.5 Derby points for his place effort rather than the full 50 points Baeza’s connections have sorely rued not having those 12.5 “missing” points especially this week as they have had to bring their colt to Churchill to train and to wait he’d have been invited into the original Churchill draw and would have a stall in the Derby gate now Baeza has booked into Barn 41 on the Churchill backstretch as he trains to stay sharp while awaiting his fate the horse can’t be informed of his predicament—he just knows that he’s not in California and that it’s a new track and a new barn But his trainer John Shirreffs had this to say to the press about his athlete’s week in what we can call his special Derby Purgatory: “It’s very awkward It’s tough to come over here and not know you’re going to run And then to wait to see if somebody has to scratch You want everybody to enjoy their Derby experience but because he (Baeza) has that opportunity it would be a shame (if there were a scratch) and he wasn’t here to run.” holds a conversation as he sits on a stack of hay bales while staying dry in a stall of the Stakes Barn on a cold rainy morning on the eve of the 130th Preakness Stakes on May 20 but at the top of the program the trio address the anomalous Baeza situation by way of advising players who hang on his every word Crist let drop at one point that the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial were the only prep races that really mattered he was taking his picks from those two races all three DRF gentlemen point out that there is some shard of hope for Baeza to gain a stall in the gate all have had race-week scratches and had horses move up into the race But all three of the Daily Racing Form’s august gentlemen openly ridicule the field-size point reduction rule DRF writer Free selected Baeza as his top pick to win the Kentucky Derby Without the colt actually being in the race and Thoroughbred racing.Follow AuthorMay 02 07:02pm EDTShareSaveComment@font-face{font-family: "Schnyder"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders-bold-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed .font-accent{font-family: Graphik,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;}Finally A Stall In The Derby Gate: Baeza lopes in hand on May 2 one day prior to the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs leaving Grande’s trainer Todd Pletcher without a runner in the race for the first time in 21 years and halving Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s entries in the race leaving him with the improving Citizen Bull in tomorrow’s running Baffert hadn’t liked the look of Rodriguez’ right forefoot at mid-week and his scratch of Rodriguez allowed the young All that commotion caused quite a different look in the 151st Kentucky Derby’s gate composition Rodriguez had occupied the fourth stall from the rail and Grande had drawn square into the middle of the field that means that all horses in their original post-positions of 5-9 would be moved toward the rail by one stall (but will keep their saddle cloth numbers) and all horses in their original post positions of 11-20 will move toward the rail by two stalls latecomer Baeza will receive the saddle cloth number 21 Stall 20 in the mammoth Churchill gate will be empty for the race There is no further alternate (below Baeza in the point standings) that qualified according to the Churchill stewards thus the 2025 Derby will have nineteen runners Nota bene: Only the horses in post positions 1-3 will bear saddle cloths that match their post positions Every other horse will have been moved in by one or two stalls To be clear: The saddle cloth numbers 4 (Rodriguez) and 10 (Grande) will be retired the post positions are listed below in parenthesis five days before he was finally invited to the Churchill gate they insisted on including him in their top-four picks for the Derby said that he fully expected Baeza’s double-digit odds to come down but that he would be happy to bet him at “anything in double digits.” Bottom line: These excellent gentlemen were dead right to focus on Baeza’s talent All three left their rambunctiously thoughtful amusing DRF livestream hoping that Baeza would gain a stall in the gate And exactly that delightful circumstance has transpired albeit sadly at a cost to Bob Baffert-trained Rodriguez but whose connections immediately got busy allowing their colt to heal up and point to the Preakness The 151st Derby will definitely miss Rodriguez not being in the mix while leaving quite a few weaker contenders in the $5-million race although Baeza brings a similar sort of racing gravitas and sharpness that Rodriguez’ departure subtracts it would have been a better Derby with Rodriguez in it it’s not quite the same race among the top challengers to Journalism and there are many who have been listening closely to the three DRF pundits and/or simply liking the horse alongside them as has been proven today on Oaks day at Churchill that the money will start defining where it thinks Baeza should be seen in all this Baeza is at 18/1 in the live Twinspires odds But it still can be that when the moment arrives the former DRF publisher and Jedi master-handicapper Crist will be wrestling with whether to jump on Baeza with quite so much lucre if the colt ratchets down into single-digit odds What is known is that Baeza ran a close second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and it’s also true that he’s going to have several things fall his way in a tumultous nineteen-horse Derby field to get the highly sought “perfect trip.” First it’s traffic of a very special layered sort: Behind Journalism Baeza’s facing at least five horses of quality in American Promise and below them are the eleven contenders in what we might less diplomatically call the chaff platoon Just because they may not be as athletically gifted as Baeza does not mean that the members of the chaff platoon cannot box Baeza in Each one of them will be getting up in his face at one point or another in this long race Baeza will have to be bigger and more determined than all of that chaotic gatekeeping; he will have to thread the gauntlet no matter what sort of beating he’s getting from anybody only then will he get a shot at his former rival Journalism The point is that there will be serial sets of nasty gatekeepers that Baeza will have to work through This is why the Derby is so literally and delightfully herculean — each winner of this race has to accomplish a long set of daunting tasks The difference between Baeza’s tasks and Hercules’ is that Baeza has to do it all within the two raging minutes LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Every morning this week, trainer John Shirreffs has taken Baeza out to the racetrack, preparing as if he would run in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby with fewer than 24 hours until the deadline Baeza still did not have a spot in the starting gate “He's probably the second-best 3-year-old in America,” said Randy Moss “It would be a shame if he were to be excluded from the race.” For Baeza, all’s well that ends well. The late Thursday afternoon scratch of Rodriguez opened up a spot in the field But the reason Shirreffs and Baeza found themselves in this predicament to begin with can be summed up simply: Their home base is Southern California which used to be arguably the most desirable racing circuit in the country but has now fallen behind states where casino gambling supplements purse money So even though the Santa Anita Derby is a Grade 1 race offering a $500,000 purse, only five horses were entered, triggering a new Churchill Downs rule that reduces Derby qualification points for races with small fields. Under normal circumstances, Baeza’s second-place finish to Journalism would have gotten him in the Kentucky Derby field Shirreffs brought the horse to Churchill hoping someone would scratch before the Friday morning deadline “I can’t really go there,” Shirreffs said Thursday when asked if he thought the point reduction was fair “We knew going in that the points were being reduced Having a small field for a big race in California is not an outlier these days who will likely be the Derby favorite on Saturday also had just four opponents on March 1 in the San Felipe Stakes and the Los Alamitos Futurity last December a race where three of the five horses were trained by Bob Baffert The Santa Anita Oaks and Santa Maria Stakes a historically important race for older horses a $300,000 Grade 1 race for fillies on grass but they all point to something everyone in the industry understands to be true: In the nationwide competition to attract horses Southern California is falling behind states that have managed to significantly boost purses through ties to other forms of gambling “Any time you’ve got a $140,000 maiden race (which are common in states like Kentucky or Arkansas) while you're running for $100,000 in a graded stakes in California there’s a huge disconnect there,” said Michael McCarthy the gaming is controlled by the (Native Americans) And I think that’s a huge burden on racing We just don’t get to share any of those funds.” which is having a direct impact on the Kentucky Derby is being watched closely on the nation's other coast has long been a crucial piece of the sport’s economic picture because of its weather and proximity to the huge population centers in Miami and Fort Lauderdale Though some large stables race at Gulfstream year-round New York-based trainers like Todd Pletcher will bring a large contingent of horses to Florida for the winter to prepare for races like the Kentucky Derby without having to dodge snowstorms Gulfstream has run its racing operation in tandem with a casino on property that offers slot machines and other electronic table games The gaming license was granted by the state with the help and support of the horse industry as the deal called for 7.5 percent of the casino revenue to go directly into the purse fund and 0.75 percent into the state’s breeding program a bill supported by the track’s ownership was filed in the Florida state legislature that would remove the requirement for live racing from the law that grants Gulfstream a casino license This so-called attempt at “decoupling” is being viewed by horsemen with ties to Florida — and rightly so — as both a knife in the back and an existential threat to racing’s future in the state if Gulfstream just decided to simply shut the track’s doors expand its casino and use its valuable property in Hallandale Beach for more profitable commercial ventures Florida’s most prominent racetrack could end up in a similar situation as Santa Anita — or worse imperiling an industry that supports an estimated 33,000 jobs in the state and more than $3 billion in economic activity and we’re definitely confused,” said Bill Mott the trainer of Derby contender Sovereignty “The horsemen were probably a big part of the racetrack to be able to get a casino in there and I think if they’re trying to bail out on us And I hope that the people that make the decisions stand up for us a little bit and at least make them run a certain amount of days per year.” a version of the decoupling legislation that would allow for a five-year window to phase it in passed the Florida House of Representatives and may not by the time the legislature’s session is scheduled to end on Friday if a bill isn't signed into law by the end of a session the process would have to start all over the following year But with the state’s budget not yet complete which means the decoupling fight could continue for a couple more months Ron DeSantis has signaled that he is against decoupling but it’s unclear whether he would absolutely veto the legislation since the decoupling language is only part of a much broader gaming bill being proposed “Horse racing is going to do well over the next five to 10 years in states where the industry has a strong relationship with its legislature and a legislature that understands the industry’s importance to the economics traditions and heritage of those states,” said Damon Thayer a former Kentucky state senator who is now advising a group called the Thoroughbred Racing Initiative that is fighting decoupling in Florida QUITE THE CHARMER: Silver Charm, oldest living Kentucky Derby winner, still charming fans at 31 “If horse racing is going to continue to be a national sport and I believe that racing in some fashion in South Florida has to continue Racing has to be alive and vibrant in a number of America’s greatest cities in order for us to be a national sport The concerns about horse racing’s future in Florida and California have a common denominator: Both Santa Anita and Gulfstream are owned by the Stronach Group a Canada-based company that at one time owned and operated a dozen other racetracks and has either closed or sold them off one by one Among those transactions was the transfer of Pimlico which will renovate the track and make it the hub of the state’s racing industry is then expected to close and be redeveloped It has led many in the racing industry to conclude that Belinda Stronach who got control over the company after a messy legal fight with her father that was settled in 2020 simply does not want to be in the horse racing business long-term on either coast “The biggest challenge in California is antipathy from Belinda Stronach toward the sport antipathy from legislators in Sacramento and antipathy from the Native Americans (who control the casino industry),” Thayer said “I don’t think any of them care about the future of horse racing in California and if California racing is going to survive and thrive somebody in those groups is going to have to start to care.”  One potential scenario is that decoupling passes in Florida racing in California continues to wither and the universe of viable racetracks continues to shrink with New York Kentucky and Arkansas eventually becoming the only major racing circuits with big purses Another scenario is even scarier: If Florida decouples will other states where casino gaming or sports wagering help fund horse racing start to think about following the same model As popular as gambling on horse racing is — nationwide handle in April exceeded $873 million including $104 million at Gulfstream — the numbers are on a downward trajectory year-over-year and racetracks are quite expensive to operate If horse racing is forced to stand completely on its own and compete with other forms of gambling that are growing more pervasive and continually easier to access across the country it’s just common sense that there will continue to be fewer racetracks and fewer horses to run at them That’s why decoupling in Florida is so dangerous and why a massive effort is being mounted to defeat it “Gaming wouldn't exist in a lot of these states if it weren’t for horse racing,” Thayer said “And these partnerships work well in a number of states where the racing industry the state government general funds and gaming companies all prosper due to a partnership And I’m going to continue to vociferously push back on those who say it’s a subsidy because it's not.” the reality of what decoupling might mean has motivated a number of groups to spring into action the thought that Stronach might eventually just pull the plug on Gulfstream Park has brought powerful wealthy people to the table to at least think about alternatives including trying to buy the part of the property devoted to horse racing the CEO and executive vice president of the Florida Thoroughbred Breeders and Owners Assocaition said a nonprofit subsidiary of their organization holds a permit to build and operate a track in Marion County near the heart of the state's breeding industry in Ocala understanding the fact that the Stronach Group does not want to be in racing in the big picture,” Powell said and we’re very optimistic and bullish on where we can take this industry.”  Though the fact that one of the best California-based Derby hopefuls only got in the race due to the misfortune of another horse isn’t necessarily a straight line to the issues in Florida What happens when some racetracks are supported by slots and other forms of gaming to keep racing alive and keep it alive long-term,” said Tom Cannell president of the Florida Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association “It's hard for me to believe that racing in the winter down here would ever cease But at one time there were three tracks down here You have to look at people who supply the grain I think a lot of folks that aren't around racing don’t understand the scope of what it does for the state So we're going to stay in the fight and hopefully find some way to keep it going for a long time.”  When post positions will be drawn for the Derby at Churchill Downs just after 7 p.m Baeza will be an alternate in the oversubscribed race just as Rich Strike was three years earlier A scratch by the morning of the May 2 Kentucky Oaks would allow Baeza to draw into the race and start from the far outside post 21 horse in 2022—using that opportunity to upset the first leg of the Triple Crown at 80-1 odds Baeza, the runner-up to Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism  in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) Derby handicappers and analysts highly regard him but the late developer was disadvantaged under Churchill Downs' preference system in which prospects earn qualifying points in designated stakes races.  Baeza is 1-2-0 in four starts with rapid progression since February "Our horse is a good horse," Baeza's trainer John Shirreffs said so we gotta wait and see if we can draw in." A $1.2 million purchase by Mayberry Farm from the Runnymede Farm consignment to the 2023 September Yearling Sale at Keeneland he races for Lee and Susan Searing's C R K Stable and breeder Grandview Equine Asked if the second leg of the Triple Crown, the May 17 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course would become the target if Baeza does not gain entrance to the Derby "I would think that would be the decision; it's day to day The California-based Shirreffs is a past Derby winner, taking the race in 2005 with Giacomo  He stands at stud at Oakhurst Thoroughbreds in Oregon Reflecting on Giacomo's Derby win for owners Jerry and Anne Moss 20 years ago "It was just a great thrill and accomplishment it just brings it back a little bit." Baeza is stabled in the same barn as Giacomo one of the barns reserved for ship-ins that extend near the early part of the backstretch chute with a grassy area separating the barn from nearby Longfield Avenue.  "I think Giacomo was in a similar stall to where Baeza is right now," Shirreffs said She now resides at Lane's End Farm in Versailles "She really showed her class and desire" in defeat Just 48 hours before the Run for the Roses, the Kentucky Derby field received a significant shake-up the front-running winner of the Wood Memorial will not race in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby announced the three-year-old is not healthy enough to race at Churchill Downs this weekend “Out of an abundance of caution, we have made a very tough decision to scratch our Derby horse, Rodriguez,” Ryan shared on social media Rodriguez was 12-1 choice on the morning line out of the No. 4 post. He’s the second defection this year from a Bob Baffert horse. Madaket Road opted for the Pat Day Mile, leaving only Citizen Bull left in the No. 1 post for the Hall of Fame trainer, who’s returning to Churchill Downs on Derby weekend for the first time in three years. Top 101Shane BeamerPuts NCAA on blast Hot3Trump By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms and use of my personal information described therein The loss of Rodriguez paves the way for Baeza to enter the starting gate. The Santa Anita Derby Runner-Up posted one of the fastest speed figures of any contender this year, but was initially left out due to a change in the qualifying points system You might have to change how you plan to play the Derby with Baeza in the field This may not be our last scratch before the horses reach the starting gate at Churchill Downs. Render Judgment has a quarter crack in its left front hoof. 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Remember Ben with a gift to Thoroughbred aftercare Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts Home » Archive » Top News » Rodriguez Scratches From Kentucky Derby With Foot Bruise The GII Wood Memorial Stakes winner and Bob Baffert trainee Rodriguez (Authentic) has been scratched with a sensitive foot bruise from Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby according a tweet from SF Racing's Tom Ryan “He has a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise that will need a few more days we are resetting our plans and will target him for the Preakness.” The 'TDN Rising Star' will now be replaced by Baeza (McKinzie) who waited in the wings for trainer John Shirreffs and at 12-1 on the morning-line will be ridden by Flavien Prat jockey Luis Saez will now ride Neoequos (Neolithic) — Tom Ryan (@TomRyanKY) May 1, 2025 Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts. Copy Article Link Editor / News Stories:editor@thetdn.com Advertising:advertising@thetdn.com Customer Service:customerservice@thetdn.com Click Here to sign up for a free subscription Baeza is among the horses who will enter the 2025 Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs Spots for the Run for the Roses are earned by gaining points through a series of Kentucky Derby prep races that began last September The post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday Post time for the Kentucky Derby is set for 6:57 p.m Baeza was the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby on April 5 He currently ranks 21st on the Kentucky Derby points list with 37.5 and needs one defection in order to make the 20-horse field Price tag: $1.2 million in 2023 Keeneland September Yearling Sale Owners: C R K Stable (Lee and Susan Searing); Grandview Equine Road to the Kentucky Derby points: 37.5 (No Last race: Second in Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 5 three-quarters of a length behind Journalism Notes: Baeza broke his maiden in his third career start — Feb 14 at Santa Anita Park — before the runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby also is the dam of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch … Prat is set to ride Neoequos in the Kentucky Derby if Baeza doesn’t make the field What they’re saying: “He is a baby still and loses focus,” jockey Hector Berrios said after the Santa Anita Derby Last May, NBC Sports announced a partnership with Churchill Downs to present the Kentucky Derby on NBC and Peacock through 2032 The extension includes multiplatform rights to the Kentucky Derby Kentucky Oaks and Derby and Oaks Day programming You can stream the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Fubo and Peacock Post time for the 151st Kentucky Derby is set for 6:57 p.m More horse racing: Bob Baffert returns to Kentucky Derby after 3-year absence: 'It's nice to be back here.' Print Sovereignty delivers another Kentucky Derby win for Bill Mott They did and Country House was elevated to the top spot in that 2019 race cold and wet but none of that mattered to the Hall of Fame trainer or the 147,406 fans who watched the 3-year-old colt win Journalism’s chances might have been compromised at the start when the inside of the field bunched together and he got shuffled toward the rail But he made a strong rally on the far turn with Sovereignty right behind him When they entered the stretch it was a two-horse race They ran side-by-side with Sovereignty on the outside (()=>{const e=document.getElementById("yt-img-NqrDJmmh1AA");e&&e.addEventListener("load",(t=>{t.target.naturalWidth<=120&&(e.parentNode.children[0].srcset=e.parentNode.children[1].srcset=e.src)}),{once:!0})})() Sovereignty finishes ahead of Journalism to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby Print Sovereignty wins the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby Sovereignty, far right, crosses the finish line ahead of (from right to left) Journalism, Baeza and Final Gambit. (Jon Cherry / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE — Sovereignty beat pre-race favorite Journalism to win the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby in muddy conditions at Churchill Downs on Saturday and ran nose-to-nose with Journalism briefly before pulling away The Bob Baffert-trained Citizen Bull led most of the race (()=>{const e=document.getElementById("yt-img-NqrDJmmh1AA");e&&e.addEventListener("load",(t=>{t.target.naturalWidth<=120&&(e.parentNode.children[0].srcset=e.parentNode.children[1].srcset=e.src)}),{once:!0})})() Watch the 2025 Kentucky Derby Print Kopion wins Derby City Distaff for trainer Richard Mandella Kopion, with Kazushi Kimura riding, wins the Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs ahead of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. (Horsephotos / Getty Images) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE — Trainer Richard Mandella doesn‘t often ship from Santa Anita to Churchill Downs He proved it again Saturday in the $1 million Derby City Distaff when Kopion blew away he competition to win the seven-furlong race by three lengths One of the last times he was at Churchill was 2019 when he brought Omaha Beach to Kentucky as the favorite for the Derby he scratched out a few days before the race with a trapped epiglottis She is certainly built for speed having won all five of her races seven furlongs or shorter This was her first race outside of Southern California Bob Baffert’s Hope Road finished second making it a Southern California exacta Print Larry Collmus ready to make history with his 15th consecutive Kentucky Derby call Horse racing announcer Larry Collmus. (Hans Pennink / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE — The voice is familiar from watching the Kentucky Derby on television it’s familiar to those going to the fall meeting at Del Mar Larry Collmus will be the voice of Del Mar for both the classic summer meeting and the fall His part-time gig calling the Kentucky Derby Preakness and Breeders’ Cup for NBC will set a record This will be his 15th straight time calling the Derby for NBC NBC has chosen to use its own race caller rather than the track announcer Those on-site at Churchill Downs will not hear Collmus but Travis Stone the regular race caller at Churchill Downs “They told me [this week] about this consecutive streak that I had going on,” Collmus said I had no idea it would become the longest streak and be considered alongside them is an amazing thing because I grew up listening to them and idolizing them Dave Johnson was actually a guy who was really helpful to me starting out that’s Dave Johnson.’ He helped me out starting in the business to have called more consecutive Kentucky Derbies than him is mind-blowing to me.” who draws the silks of each horse in the Derby to help him familiarize them You never know if you’re going to have to deal with a sloppy racetrack One thing you’re always having to deal with is keeping your nerves in check although there is a sigh of relief when it’s over “It’s something that I love doing every year,” he said ‘What’s the best part of the Derby for you?’ For me ‘When it’s over.’ All the preparation that you put into it Print Final Kentucky Derby odds: Win pool set to rise over $50 million Kentucky Derby entrant Journalism, the race favorite, works out at Churchill Downs on Thursday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE — The final win pool for the 151st Kentucky Derby will be in excess of $50 million And Journalism will go to post as the favorite Unlike when you bet other races where there can be big odds swings right before post The computer bettors who made those swings possible are generally playing exotics such as trifectas and superfectas they are playing what’s called horizontal betting which means they are playing multiple consecutive races Almost $8 million has been bet so far on Journalism as he stays at 4-1 Sandman is the second choice at 5-1 followed by Luxor Café at 8-1 and Sovereignty at 9-1 Here are the odds with less than one hour to go: Print ‘Happy to be back’: Bob Baffert’s Kentucky Derby return includes a longshot Big-name trainers talking to well-heeled owners media haplessly standing around hoping to grab a quote or a quick stand-up interview Yet the most important part of this annual carnival of horsedom is that one of the occupants will be the next winner of the Kentucky Derby Not all of the 1,500 horses stabled are eligible to race in the Kentucky Derby only 20 of them make the starting gate and you get only one chance — when they are a 3-year-old But if you are looking for a special place, look no further than Barn 33. What makes it stand out is that’s where way too many people congregate, hoping to either talk to, snap a picture with or interview the most famous person in racing, trainer Bob Baffert Print Kentucky Derby horses: No Kentucky Derby entrant Baeza works out at Churchill Downs on Thursday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: John Shirreffs Last race: Second in the Santa Anita Derby Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 8-1 except so many people are high on him that it’s not going to surprise anyone if he wins or hits the board You could very well have a repeat of the Santa Anita Derby with Journalism first and Baeza second He had to get in the race when Rodriguez was scratched He was disadvantaged by Churchill’s field size penalty receiving only 37.5 points instead of 50 because it was a field of five If there were six horses he would have been in the race and not have to wait to see if he was going to get in the field Trainer John Shirreffs originally did not want to bring him to Churchill if he had to wait Flavien Prat was working him in the morning even when they didn’t know if he would make the field Print Kentucky Derby horses: 20 Kentucky Derby entrant Owen Almighty works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Brian Lynch Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 500-1 Comment: What’s the classic line in the movie “Dumb and Dumber”?: “So that should be your philosophy if you plan to play this horse There’s nothing in his past that tells you he can make 1 ¼ miles he was second and faded to sixth and the Derby is a furlong longer Trainer Brian Lynch did not want to run him in this race but was overruled by the owners His high point was winning the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby Print Latest Kentucky Derby odds: Journalism and Sandman still at the top Race fans watch horses pass at Churchill Downs before the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. (Jon Cherry / Associated Press) By John Cherwa The win pool swelled $7 million in an hour making the pool $34.937 million The odds remained largely unchanged in the last hour The Derby is up after next race but there is a large gap between races Print Mindframe outlasts Nysos to take $1 million Churchill Downs win Nysos runs in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 3, 2024. (Benoit Photo / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE got up to win by a neck with four horses stretch across the track in the $1 million Churchill Downs Nysos finished in a dead heat for second with Banishing Nysos hadn’t run since last year’s Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita He was considered Bob Baffert’s best horse until he was injured He won his first three races by a combined 26 ¾ lengths “He ran great,” said Nysos’ jockey Flavien Prat I thought when I had that horse outside of me but then Mindframe came on the outside and nailed us It was a good run and he hasn’t run for over a year.” It’s unclear what his next race will be but the Met Mile at Saratoga on Belmont Stakes day is certainly a possibility Print Kentucky Derby horses: 19 Kentucky Derby entrant Chunk of Gold works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Ethan West Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 30-1 Comment: This is a very intriguing horse and might be the big long-shot play His only win was in a maiden race but his last two races were seconds in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby It is the first Derby for trainer Ethan West and the second Derby for jockey Jareth Loveberry who finished second on Two Phil’s two years ago Expect the colt to be mid-pack because he’s not a deep closer like some of the other horses on the outside He was bought for $2,500 and has earned almost $350,000 Print Kentucky Derby horses: 18 Kentucky Derby entrant Sovereignty works out at Churchill Downs on Thursday (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) Trainer: Bill Mott Comment: He’s a very solid second choice at 5-1 And he has a very good trainer in Bill Mott whose only Derby win came by disqualification when Country House was elevated over Maximum Security Sovereignty was the favorite in the Florida Derby after winning the Street Sense and Fountain of Youth But he finished second behind Tappan Street from an outside post Mage won the Kentucky Derby after finishing second in the Florida Derby Sovereignty should get plenty of action and will likely be on a lot of tri and super tickets Print Betting odds: American Promise continues to get surprise interest from bettors Kentucky Derby entrant American Promise works out at Churchill Downs Tuesday in Louisville (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) LOUISVILLE — Things remained mostly unchanged in the odds for the Kentucky Derby The rain has backed off but it’s unlikely the track will dry out enough Most of the weather is to the east of the track Journalism remained the favorite at 4-1 with Sandman at 5-1 Journalism is coming off an impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby They were very different races in that Journalism had to overcome trouble while Sandman had the trip perfectly set up for him One of the more puzzling betting trends for the day is the love that American Promise is getting His last race was an impressive win in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs It took him six tries to break his maiden and he finished eighth over a sloppy Churchill Downs track in September There is now $27.061 million in the win pool Print Kentucky Derby horses: 17 Kentucky Derby entrant Sandman works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Mark Casse Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 13-1 Comment: There is a lot of interest in this colt but the morning line of 6-1 may be too low Veteran handicappers believe he will go off in double digits The troubling thing about this three-time winner has been his performance at Churchill Downs where he finished fifth Normally when a trainer says a horse doesn’t like the surface it usually means they have no idea why the horse didn’t run well Print Kentucky Derby horses: 16 Kentucky Derby entrant Coal Battle works out at Churchill Downs on Monday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Lonnie Briley Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 40-1 Comment: The story around this horse focuses on his 72-year-old trainer Lonnie Briley He has captivated the media with his story of perseverance and struggle But a great story doesn’t always translate into a horse that can compete at this level He may have peaked when he won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn But that also means he hasn’t had a break from racing Print Kentucky Derby horses: 15 Kentucky Derby entrant Render Judgment works out at Churchill Downs on Thursday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Kenny McPeek Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 1,000-1 Comment: The Horse Racing Nation fair odds helping you to find overlays and underlays Legendary country singer Toby Keith had a piece of the horse until Keith died He got in when Florida Derby winner Tappan Street scratched out with a minor injury This might be a case where ownership just wanted the Derby experience but I’m as good once as I ever was.” That once might be the only chance the horse has to finish on top Print Kentucky Derby horses: 14 Kentucky Derby entrant Tiztastic works out at Churchill Downs on Thursday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Steve Asmussen easily eclipsing the $335,000 purchase price who is likely to be the second or third favorite But it would be a tall order for him to find his way to the top of the ticket His breeding is exceptional with Tiz the Law as the sire and Tapit as mare every horse — except maybe Journalism — will need some luck to get the blanket of roses Print Betting odds: Journalism and Sandman are favored as bets reach $21.8 million People stand against a wall at Churchill Downs before the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby horse race Saturday in Louisville (Jon Cherry / Associated Press) LOUISVILLE — Journalism betting lead over Sandman grew by about $100,000 over the last hour Journalism has had $3.583 million bet on to win the Kentucky Derby Both retained the same odds they had during the previous hour It means Journalism would return $10 for every $2 bet while a Sandman win would return $12 to his backers Betting on the Derby is starting to pick up with around $3 million wagered in the last hour The betting totals are not just on-track but through ADWs (advance deposit wagering) The tote board has mostly been stable all day with no wild swings of numbers $21.844 million has been bet to win on the race Print Kentucky Derby horses: 13 Kentucky Derby entrant Publisher works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Steve Asmussen Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 45-1 Comment: Publisher is the only maiden in the race When was the last time a maiden won the Derby even though there wasn’t a Triple Crown at that time that date was within shouting distance of World War I Add in the fact that incredibly talented trainer and jockey Steve Asmussen and Irad Ortiz have never won a Derby and it seems like maybe this isn’t the play Publisher has also had problems getting away from the gate people in news business might be looking at a Journalism-Publisher exacta Print Kentucky Derby horses: 12 Kentucky Derby entrant East Avenue works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Brendan Walsh Last race: Second in the Blue Grass Stakes Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 25-1 Comment: He is the only speed on the outside He looked gangbusters after a huge win in the Breeders’ Futurity in October He finished ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and followed that with a 10th in the Risen Star then he came back with a surprising second in the Blue Grass Stakes This will be his second race in a row with blinkers Print Kentucky Derby horses: 11 Kentucky Derby entrant Flying Mohawk works out at Churchill Downs on Thursday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Whit Beckman Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 100-1 Comment: The most interesting thing about this horse is that he is partly owned by former Dodger Jayson Werth This will be the horse’s first time on the dirt having run on the turf five times and the synthetic once His last race was a second on the Turfway synthetic in the Jeff Ruby It’s difficult to see him hitting the board but no one gave Rich Strike a chance in 2022 Print Betting odds: Journalism’s odds shift slightly as bets pour in A person places a bet at Churchill Downs before the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby Saturday in Louisville (Brynn Anderson / Associated Press) LOUISVILLE the odds at the very top have changed as Journalism There is about $600,000 in money bet separating them Journalism has had $2.926 million bet on him while Sandman comes in at $2.327 million The total win pool has climbed to $17.717 million The place (first or second) pool was at $3.960 million and the show pool (first Luxor Café continues to gain traction and moved 9-1 to 8-1 in the last hour Sovereignty has held steady at 9-1 all day Print Kentucky Derby horses: 9 Kentucky Derby entrant Burnham Square works out at Churchill Downs on Monday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Ian Wilkes Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 12-1 Comment: Burnham Square is the only gelding in the race so don’t be surprised if Hernandez figures out how to get him to the rail quickly He was high on the radar after winning the Holy Bull at Gulfstream but then dropped an uninspired fourth in the Fountain of Youth He went to Keeneland for the Blue Grass and rallied to win by a nose but the question is if he gets in any trouble along the way Print California Crown at Santa Anita won’t be held this year Flavien Prat rides Salesman to victory at Santa Anita in November 2023. (Ashley Landis / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE a valiant attempt by The Stronach Group to create a big event for Santa Anita The event was filled with ambition and a hope that it could create the buzz that the Pegasus World Cup had at its sister property at Gulfstream Park in South Florida Tickets were offered for free at neighborhood bars according to several attendees at the event It was disputed by the spokesman for the California Horse Racing Board to the commissioners explaining why the CHRB does not report attendance figures because of their inaccuracy The news of its demise was first reported by Ron Flatter of Horse Racing Nation Santa Anita did not offer a plausible explanation for the event ending instead relying on vague explanations of its demise “We have made the decision to pause the California Crown as we continue to have conversations with our event partners regarding the evolution of the overall brand,” Amy Zimmerman The California Crown tried to meld an entertainment experience and a horse racing event. In fact, they booked Shaboozey well before he was a became a national sensation The racing centerpiece was the $1 million Awesome Again but has been replaced by the Goodwood Stakes Print Betting odds: Journalism remains clear favorite with 17% of all win bets — The win pool continues to grow hitting $14.504 million with plenty of time before the running of the 151st Kentucky Derby Journalism has not wavered as the favorite Sandman is second with 13% of the wagers or 5-1 Following the pair is Sovereignty and Luxor Café he would be the first Japanese horse to ever win the Derby The second most popular bet remains the trifecta (first There has $5.682 bet in the exacta (first and second) the trifecta is popular because it usually yields a very good payout Neoequos continues to have odds drop going from 41-1 to 38-1 in the last three hours Admire Daytona continues the go the other way having gone from 34-1 to 38-1 in the last three hours Print Kentucky Derby horses: 8 Kentucky Derby entrant Journalism works out at Churchill Downs on Thursday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Michael McCarthy Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 5-2 Comment: The most difficult thing about Journalism Guessing that some will question the short fields he’s been running against in California Michael McCarthy is probably underrated as a trainer he’s top shelf when it comes to conditioning The speed is inside of him and the closers are far outside Expect him to set up off the pace but still close to the lead His breeding of Curlin out of an Uncle Mo mare should mean he can easily make the distance After winning the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby he wasn’t even breathing hard It was an important race because he got in trouble when a horse backed up on him But he re-rallied to win easily beating a small but strong field The surprise will be if he’s not in contention Print Analyzing each horse’s strengths ahead of the Kentucky Derby Journalism, the favorite for victory in the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, gets a bath at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE — So you’re looking for some handicapping advice The first rule is don’t listen to anyone who thinks they know what they are doing In order to help bettors, Brisnet.com provides some analysis by breaking horses down into categories here is a look at the top 10 (and ties) horses in six different categories (Note: There are no stats for the two Japanese horses Print Kentucky Derby horses: 7 Kentucky Derby entrant Luxor Café works out at Churchill Downs on Monday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Noriyuki Hori Derby points: Automatic qualifier by winning Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 16-1 Comment: A horse from Japan has never won the Kentucky Derby Many will remember last year when Forever Young Luxor Café is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah He does like an off track and there is rain expected earlier in the day Expect him to get some action and leave him out of the top four at your own risk Print Bob Baffert horse Goal Oriented wins undercard race Horses run on a muddy track during an undercard race at Churchill Downs on Saturday in Louisville — Trainer Bob Baffert picked up a win on the undercard when Goal Oriented went gate to write to win the third race on the 14-race card Goal Oriented went off as the favorite in the 1 1/16 mile allowance race having won his debut at Santa Anita on April 6 The 3-year-olt colt is owned by the same partnership that also owns Citizen Bull and Rodriguez Her was bought at the 2023 Keeneland sale for $425,000 who will ride the John Shirreffs-trained Baeza in the Kentucky Derby Juan Hernandez rode the colt in his first race but was on a second Baffert starter on Saturday who finished fourth in the Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita He is a homebred and owned partly by Karl Watson and Paul Weitman The other owners are Mike Pegram and Jill Baffert Print Donna Barton Brothers recalls her favorite Kentucky Derby memories Donna Barton Brothers, left, interviews jockey Victor Espinoza immediately after he rode California Chrome to victory in the 2014 Preakness Stakes. (Bill Frakes / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE But for the last two decades she is more familiar as the first person to talk to the winning jockey after winning the Kentucky Derby rushing over to capture the emotions of the jockey Generally the answers are raw and not insightful and there is the obligatory thanking of people that helped make it happen You can almost count on a jockey thanking the trainer she participated in an NBC conference call where she chatted with the media She offered some thoughts about how covering the Kentucky Derby has changed over the years we had a 90-minute broadcast at that time,” Brothers said we thought 90 minutes to cover a two-minute race Now we’re on the air for seven and a half hours on Saturday and we are still trying to figure out how we’re going to get this story in and that story in because there are so many great stories to tell.” Brothers recalled some of her more memorable Derbies “It was memorable in that that was the Derby that Smarty Jones won It was also Bob Costas’ first time joining our team … Bob Costas had never covered horse racing before He had been assured by [producer] David Michaels that he would not be put in a position where he would have to pretend to be an expert on the sport about an hour and a half before the Kentucky Derby Nobody’s microphones or cameras were working The only person who has any communication is Bob Costas such a great production team got everything up and running And then there was the COVID year in which the Derby was held in September “It was surreal to be there live because we didn’t have a live audience of fans “It was also very interesting and memorable for lots of good reasons There were still winning connections who got their dreams finally realized There was also the reality of loss for many people who didn’t get to the Derby.” Brothers’ role in the coverage is both planned and spontaneous “One of the things I do love about my role on horseback is that I’m in a position to talk to the jockey right after the race while they’re still in their heart and before they have a chance to really start to intellectualize what happened,” she said but quickly enough to where they’re still feeling what they felt about crossing the wire first in the Kentucky Derby “We try to capture that emotion right away My first question is never going to be tell me about your trip We try to capture that and bring it into the living rooms of people who are watching across the United States and elsewhere.” She’ll be repeating that role about 4:05 p.m Print Betting odds: Journalism becomes first horse to have more than $2 million bet on him Kentucky Derby entrant Journalism waits to get a bath after a workout at Churchill Downs Wednesday in Louisville — Journalism remains the favorite for the Kentucky Derby and became the first horse to have more than $2 million bet on him to win Sandman remained the second betting choice The biggest mover in odds on Saturday is Neoequos who started at 41-1 and has moved to 39-1 in the last two hours It becomes more difficult to significantly change odds as more money is added into the mutuel pool the lower odds are based on his allowance race on Jan The Churchill track is currently listed as sloppy Neoequos moved the most in early Kentucky Derby betting odds but American Promise has generated the most surprising interest given its recent struggles (Google Trends) There also appears to be less and less interest in Admire Daytona The Japanese-bred colt has gone from 34-1 to 37-1 in the past two hours What makes it puzzling is that he finished eighth in September over a sloppy Churchill Downs track Print Kentucky Derby horses: 6 Kentucky Derby entrant Admire Daytona works out at Churchill Downs on Monday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Yukihiro Kato Derby points: Automatic qualifier by winning Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 50-1 Comment: Every thought about this horse compares him to the other Japanese horse He won the UAE Derby by a nose in a time that was almost a second slower than last year No horse who ran in the Middle East has won the Derby he is a frontrunner in a race with a few of those He’s more likely to screw up the race than win it Print Kentucky Derby horses: 5 Kentucky Derby entrant American Promise works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Wayne Lukas Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 64-1 Comment: This will be the 51st Kentucky Derby starter for Wayne Lukas The problem is American Promise is not as fast as the other speed horses who are stuck on the inside was impressive but the only reason the race is on the Kentucky Derby trail is because Colonial Downs is owned by Churchill Downs It took him six starts to break his maiden He is the most experienced horse in the race with nine starts so what do you make of his seven weeks rest Print Be prepared to pay if you visit Louisville during Kentucky Derby week Horse racing fans chat while standing near the paddock at Churchill Downs on Friday. (Jon Cherry / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE — Planning to come to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby in 2026 or at some point in the future few cities know how to gouge people better than Louisville during Derby week VegasInsider.com did an analysis of 1,300 accommodation listings on Booking.com and Airbnb in the greater Louisville area and their results were not surprising for anyone who has come to this city and plans to stay around the days of the Kentucky Derby The flaw in the survey is it is based on a two-night stay The Times was staying for $125 a night until Thursday And that’s at a major chain not named Hilton or Hyatt Print Kentucky Derby horses: 3 Kentucky Derby entrant Final Gambit works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Brad Cox Comment: This will be his first race on the dirt after running three times on the Turfway synthetic and once on the Churchill turf The connections of Juddmonte and Cox are strong But he’s a closer and it wouldn’t surprise to see him at the back going into the first turn against this field he may draw some action at the bottom of trifectas and superfectas He will get the distance and should be coming late Print Betting odds: Admire Daytona and Tiztastic see their odds go up Kentucky Derby hopeful Admire Daytona works out at Churchill Downs Monday in Louisville — As the first of 14 races approached at Churchill Downs betting on the Kentucky Derby remains slow compared to what it will be as post-time approaches The win pool is up to about $9.5 million and Journalism remains the favorite at 7-2 Other bets are also starting to accumulate with $3.8 million bet on exactas $4.7 million on trifectas and $142,000 on superfectas Horses that saw their odds drop in the last hour are Neoequos Horses was who their odds go up in that time are Admire Daytona and Tiztastic Print Kentucky Derby ‘will pays’ offer insights into how betting will go Good Cheer ridden by Luis Saez, left, crosses the finish line to win the 151st running of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. (Abbie Parr / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE — One of the best predictors of how the betting will go in the Kentucky Derby is to look at statistics called “will pays.” In this case you look at who won the Kentucky Oaks — which was Good Cheer — and see what the probable prices on a double with the winner of the Kentucky Derby will be It’s no surprise that Journalism is the overwhelming favorite followed by Sovereignty So here is how much the Oaks-Derby Double will pay with each of the horses not to the dime as they are pretty much everywhere else Print Betting odds: Journalism remains Kentucky Derby favorite nine hours before race — Betting on the Kentucky Derby started earlier in the week meaning the mutuel win pool — the money wagered — already had almost $8 million in it the total handle of all bets on Friday’s nine-race card at Santa Anita was about $7.5 million The odds usually don’t change significantly during the day but bettors watch to see how much value they can get out of their bets The payoffs are determined once the pool closes The odds when you placed your bet are not considered Journalism is the current favorite at 7-2 followed by Sandman who is at 12-1 but was 30-1 on the morning line Print Kentucky Derby horses: 2 Kentucky Derby entrant Neoequos works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr Comment: He’s never won in a race longer than six furlongs why he’s in the Derby is a bit of a mystery Neoequos has never finished out of the money except for his first race when he lost his jockey His highest-level win was in an allowance race Print Kentucky Derby horses: 1 Kentucky Derby entrant Citizen Bull works out at Churchill Downs on Thursday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa Trainer: Bob Baffert Comment: He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was named the Eclipse Award top 2-year-old male he won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita But then he had an inexplicable performance in the Santa Anita Derby where he finished fourth in a five-horse field he doesn’t seem to have moved forward as a 3-year-old Trainer Bob Baffert rarely puts a horse in the Derby whose last race was so miserable Baffert often jokes that when a race is drawn they put his horse in the one Citizen Bull has to go hot out of the gate and that could compromise him The last winner from the one was Ferdinand in 1986 Print Rain will play a factor in this year’s Kentucky Derby Horses prepare for a race on a muddy track at Churchill Downs on Saturday before the running of the Kentucky Derby. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE The rain started overnight and will continue all day and night the peak rain time will be in the early afternoon with between a 70% to 90% chance of precipitation ET with the rain chances at 65% and a temperature of 60 degrees Things will start to taper off around 11 p.m racing was delayed and the track issued a severe weather warning urging patrons to seek shelter The wind even knocked over metal barricades along the road that leads to Churchill Downs making it difficult for buses to get to the track Virtually everyone who attends the races parks about two miles away at the Kentucky Exposition Center and then are transported by an army of buses It’s unclear what condition the track will be in or which horses will benefit Print Rain could favor the mudders in the Kentucky Derby today A horse works out at Churchill Downs on Friday. Rain is in the forecast for Saturday’s 151st running of the Kentucky Derby. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUISVILLE — One thing that serious handicappers always want to know is what the weather will be Rain can affect the track surface and some horses are better on a wet track and others hate it Every forecast has a reasonable chance of rain all day it seems like a good time to look at some of the weather records on Derby day none of these stats have any bearing on what the weather will be like on Saturday Print What time does the 2025 Kentucky Derby start EDT Saturday in the commonwealth of bourbon and horse racing although it’s not uncommon for it to be a few minutes later It’s not difficult math to figure out what that means for you since you know where you live but we don’t Print When it comes to Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism Trainer Michael McCarthy stands outside Barn 35 at Churchill Downs after Journalism had a workout in preparation for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) By John Cherwa LOUSIVILLE Ky. — Common sense tells you that the pressure of being the favorite in the Kentucky Derby can be crushing Never mind what it took to get to that point it was a strange feeling to be around Barn 35 at Churchill Downs where Journalism was biding his time in preparation for Saturday’s 151st Run for the Roses Trainer Michael McCarthy was telling jokes He even walked up to a journalist standing to the side and asked if they needed anything from him With the late scratch of Rodriguez on Thursday, also-eligible Baeza moves into the field for Saturday’s 151st running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on Saturday His trainer stayed positive in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby (G1) hoping his improving 3-year-old would get into the field with a few last-minute defections Baeza moved into the field of 20 after trainer Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez was scratched due to a slight foot bruise The addition of Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs of Giacomo fame (2005 Derby winner at 50-1), brings a new Kentucky Derby contender from the West Coast into the fray – one that finished second to Derby favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 Baeza has been working toward the Derby at Churchill Downs for more than a week Baeza posted a 5-furlong work in 1:02 on April 28 the slowest of 15 at the distance but by design who will be aboard again as he takes off Neoequos (Luis Saez replaces him) Shirreffs said of the work: “I know 1:02 is a little on the slow side but he’s not an especially sharp work horse We put a good work into him last week (7 furlongs in 1:28 at Santa Anita on April 20) and he’s ready.” a three-quarters-of-a-length loss to Journalism when Rich Strike got into the field the day before the race and then won at 80-1 odds Most horseplayers agree Baeza deserves to be here and his odds of 12-1 could go down since he’ll likely be the ‘wise guy’ choice The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings — Rodriguez has been scratched from this weekend's Kentucky Derby leaving veteran trainer Bob Baffert with one entry in his return to Churchill Downs after serving a three-year suspension from the track just two days before the 151st edition of the “Run for the Roses,” which has a post time of 6:57 p.m wrote in a social media post: "Out of an abundance of caution He has a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise that will need a few more days." Ryan said the colt will be pointed toward the Preakness Stakes the field of 20 3-year-olds will now include Baeza The colt has been on the grounds since last week in case a spot opened up Baeza was the Santa Anita Derby runner-up last month at Baffert’s home track in California The decision on Rodriguez leaves jockey Mike Smith — like Baffert Racing Hall of Fame — without a mount in what would have been his record-extending 29th start in thoroughbred horse racing’s marquee event in pursuit of a record-breaking seventh Kentucky Derby win and will be under pressure to break quickly before the rest of the field comes over on him at the rail This document may not be reprinted without the express written permission of Chattanooga Times Free Press Material from the Associated Press is Copyright © 2025 audio and/or video material shall not be published rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistributed directly or indirectly in any medium Neither these AP materials nor any portion thereof may be stored in a computer except for personal and noncommercial use The AP will not be held liable for any delays errors or omissions therefrom or in the transmission or delivery of all or any part thereof or for any damages arising from any of the foregoing With the Kentucky Derby set to take place in just two days the final preparations for the horse racing's marquee Triple Crown race are underway with the majority of the field sliding over one spot Then, early Friday morning, Grande was scratched from the field due to a foot bruise KENTUCKY DERBY PREDICTIONS: AI picks winner, results for 2025 Triple Crown race 3 post — marking just the sixth horse to win out of that post in the race's history The Kentucky Derby is set to take place take place at 7:02 p.m ET on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville Here's a look at which number each of the 20 horses will wear on Saturday in the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Stream the Kentucky Derby live with Peacock With the news of Rodriguez being scratched from the Kentucky Derby, Baeza will move into the field for Saturday's race Here's a full list of the numbers for the 19 horses competing in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday: KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS: History of winning horses at Churchill Downs since 1875 NBC will nationally broadcast the 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday The actual Kentucky Derby race will take place at 7:02 p.m Streaming options for the Kentucky Derby include Peacock, NBC's subscription service, and Fubo, which carries NBC and offers a free trial to new subscribers Watch the Kentucky Derby live with Fubo (free trial) Post time is set for 7:02 p.m. Saturday. The race will be televised by NBC Before you place your bets on which horses will win place and show at the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs click on the links below to learn about the thoroughbreds set to run 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions, horse, trainer, jockey, oddsClick on a horse's name to learn more: 1. Citizen Bull 2. Neoequos 3. Final Gambit 4. Rodriguez 5. American Promise 6. Admire Daytona 7. Luxor Cafe 8. Journalism 9. Burnham Square 10. Grande 11. Flying Mohawk 12. East Avenue 13. Publisher 14. Tiztastic 15. Render Judgment 16. Coal Battle 17. Sandman 18. Sovereignty 19. Chunk of Gold 20. Owen Almighty 21. Baeza Reach college sports enterprise reporter Payton Titus at ptitus@gannett.com Hold everything, please, there’s a big change in the Kentucky Derby (G1) field Rodriguez, the Wood Memorial (G2) winner trained by Bob Baffert, is out of the race with a foot bruise. Baeza Baffert, who is back at Churchill Downs after a three-year suspension, still has a Derby runner in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) Citizen Bull listed at 20-1 on the morning-line and leaving from the No trained by John Shirreffs of Giacomo fame (2005 Derby winner at 50-1 odds) has worked as if he would get into the field Shirreffs said: “We’re still hoping for a gift from the gods.” It happened. Baeza will be ridden by Eclipse Award-winner Flavien Prat, who takes off 30-1 longshot Neoequos to fulfill his commitment to ride if Baeza made the field Luis Saez will replace Prat aboard Neoequos Baeza moves into the field and will break from the outside post 20 Journalism, with the Kentucky Derby betting odds 3-1 favorite, defeated Baeza by three-quarters of a length in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 Rodriguez was among several speed horses in the field Two-time Derby winner Mike Smith had the call on Rodriguez Trainer George Weaver was not satisfied with her training, so he’s scratching Five G from Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) The 3-year-old filly, who won the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) “She’s been off her feed the last couple of days She didn’t train with great energy this morning [Friday] We don’t feel good about it,” Weaver told drf.com “This is the type of race where you’ve got to be 110 percent Five G won the Cash Run Stakes and ran second to Quietside in the Honeybee Stakes and Thoroughbred racing.Follow AuthorMay 04 02:21pm EDTShareSaveComment@font-face{font-family: "Schnyder"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders-bold-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed .font-accent{font-family: Graphik,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;}Plowing Through The Mud Baby: Sovereignty flies across the line to win the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday Hermens/Lexington Herald-Leader/Tribune News Service via Getty Images) Up to his cannon bones in the Churchill mud Sovereignty delivered a stretch run of grand intensity to run down the race-favorite Journalism snatching a commanding one-and-a-half-length victory in the $5 million Kentucky Derby on Saturday in Louisville He and his connections will take home a tidy $3.1 million of the Derby’s increasingly impressive pot his time was a fairly speedy 2:02.31 for the mile-a-and-quarter Sovereignty had not been especially loved by the money and thus delighted the players that had him After being resoundingly passed by Sovereignty but before he got to the wire Journalism found that he wasn’t quite done with his Kentucky Derby—there was one more really nasty battle for him to endure in the final seconds of the race The unstoppable Baeza had steamed away strongly from the peloton of 16 runners swimming in the mud behind him and was blazing up on the outside deep in a furious bid to run Journalism down Journalism was saved by the wire by approximately one or perhaps two strides given the impressive speed at which Baeza was gaining on him It has been opined that Journalism held on by a neck but to this observer it was by a bare nose Baeza would have put the top Derby favorite in show it was as if Baeza was looking to take on Sovereignty The tough colt had nothing—not the distance no run in the 151st Kentucky Derby brought the buzz of that late-running strength any better than Baeza’s did and coming as somewhat of a relief to top three finishers’ connections was that the finish was so delightfully battle-royal furious None of them are going to have to worry about any bit of weather in any race down the road the trainer noted the several difficulties Baeza had easily mastered the fact that he shipped for the first time and ran on a wet track for the first time We are very proud of him.” Baeza will take home the show cut of $500,000 for his fine effort Baffert’s Citizen Bull led most of the first half of the race with East Avenue close on his heels as Sovereignty and Journalism tucked into the middle of the pack and it was clear that that affected some horses but the slop did not for one second seem to bother Journalism or Sovereignty who came out of the final turn laser-focused on their stretch duel Sovereignty’s famously-reserved South Dakota-born trainer Bill Mott was clearly elated as he was mobbed by family and friends in the stands and smiled broadly as he was being kissed and slapped around exuberantly He began to work his way down to the winners’ circle where he regained his Dakota reserve and most graciously credited everyone around him The Hall of Fame trainer is renowned for his patience and generosity to those around him very much including Sovereignty’s jockey Junior Alvarado I’m so proud of everybody that had anything to do with getting this horse to this point and it takes a community to get him ready.” A similarly uplifting sportsman’s grace was brought to the fore by Journalism’s trainer Michael McCarthy Journalism had gotten forced toward the rail in the classic Derby crush but was deftly piloted clear by jockey Umberto Rispoli McCarthy said: “He made a nice middle move then on the turn for home he opened up but I saw the blue silks (of Sovereignty’s owner Godolphin) coming at us and I knew that was the one we were going to have to be concerned about He (Sovereignty) ran the best he could and he ran a very good race playBob Baffert reflects on Churchill Downs ban: 'It was tough to take' (1:43)Horse trainer Bob Baffert talks with Marty Smith about his return to the Kentucky Derby after serving a three-year suspension from Churchill Downs LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Rodriguez was scratched Thursday from the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, leaving trainer Bob Baffert with one entry in his return to Churchill Downs after serving a three-year suspension said on X: "Out of an abundance of caution Ryan said the colt will be pointed toward the Preakness on May 17 The decision leaves Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith without a mount in what would have been his record-extending 29th Derby start The colt has been on the grounds since last week training in the hopes of getting in who teamed with Smith to win the Derby in 2005 with 50-1 shot Giacomo Kentucky Derby entrant Rodriguez works out at Churchill Downs Thursday Kentucky Derby entrant Baeza works out at Churchill Downs Thursday Kentucky Derby entrant Citizen Bull works out at Churchill Downs Thursday said on X: “Out of an abundance of caution He has a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise that will need a few more days.” Home » Archive » Top News » Though 23rd on the Points List Baeza Will Ship to Churchill in Hopes of Drawing Into the Derby The connections of Baeza (McKinzie) have had a change of heart and will ship him to Churchill Downs after all is among the best 3-year-olds in the sport His second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby would have earned him 50 points Churchill reduced the number of points awarded in any prep race that had fewer than six horse who Shirreffs put in the race to guarantee that the points allotment didn't get even smaller “There was a little change of mind,” Shirreffs said “You know how rumors are on the racetrack…but from some of the rumors we've been hearing it seems like there is a possibility that he will get in I don't know what we will do but we are optimistic he will make it in Baeza is highly regarded for a number of reasons He is a half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage (Good Magic) and 2024 GI Belmont S winner Dornoch (Good Magic) From there Shirreffs put him in the Santa Anita Derby losing by only three-quarters of a length to Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism (Curlin) That he is seemingly getting better with every race bodes well for him in the Derby “He's night and day difference from when he first ran,” Shirreffs said he didn't know anything about it and he didn't show the kind of speed that he has Now he's become a lot more practical and he more understands about the company in the race Shirreffs said he was disappointed that Churchill Downs changed the point system for this year but knows there's nothing he can do about it was the Covid year and this year they adjusted the point system,” he said but in this particular instance the point system wasn't good at all But I don't make those decisions and nobody asked my opinion So to worry about it is waste of energy.” Copy Article Link Click Here to sign up for a free subscription.