This year’s race begins in Brussels before quickly heading to the mountains and building towards an Alpine climax Read moreStage five, Wednesday 10 July, Saint-Dié-des-Vosges – Colmar, 175.5kmStage 5Best described as Vosges-lite skirting three sides of the massif with two second and two third category climbs to shake up the pack There is a good chance that an early escape will stay away today as keeping a team chasing will be hard in the tough finale – two climbs in the final 35km – while behind the move the peloton will be whittled down to 30 or 40 A good day for a strong breakaway rider such as Thomas De Gendt or Matej Mohoric one where the favourites will want to avoid losing time or expending too much energy Short and intense over four brutal climbs culminating with the ascent where Chris Froome won in 2012 The main action will come in the final 20km over the very narrow and steep Col des Chevrères It’s a typical first key day at the Tour: the time gaps should be a bit less than in other years as we are still in the opening week but the chances are only 10 or a dozen riders will be in with a shout after this one Local boy Thibaut Pinot might be the best bet to win the stage and steal an early march The longest stage of the Tour follows one of the toughest but will give the flat-road sprinters another chance plus there is a good chance that one of the favourites will have taken yellow the previous day which will lend some structure to the race The pressure will be felt the most by the older sprinters who moved to the small French team Arkéa-Samsic over the winter but hasn’t produced much Nowhere near as hard as La Planche des Belles Filles but still one that will set alarm bells ringing technical climbs initially through the Beaujolais vineyards and later through the Monts du Lyonnais and the run-in to the final climb is technical a stage where the Tour could be lost and a definite chance for an escape to stay away with the win going to a punchy rider such as Tony Gallopin unless one of the outsiders for the overall win decides to stir up some trouble A Bastille Day stage ending with a 30km loop through Romain Bardet country: no pressure for France’s favourite then but even with a third category ascent during that final circuit around Brioude you should expect a bunch sprint albeit probably for a group that’s been reduced over the final climb and the windy roads around it such as the 2017 points winner Michael Matthews or Peter Sagan; the former world champion hasn’t had a memorable year but this looks made for him a scenic beginning before a 30km descent off the Cantal plateau for the 10th day of racing in a row with the first rest day 24 hours later than usual but most of the riders will be just making sure they drink enough All eyes will be on whichever sprinter has hit form early on as Marcel Kittel did in 2017 and Mark Cavendish did the year before The hilly route of this year’s first half of the Tour favours a lighter rider such as Elia Viviani who has a point to prove after a disappointing Giro An amuse-bouche before the serious general classification racing begins this is a short and probably rapid sprint stage across the south of France with only an early third-category climb to trouble the sprinters but there are only two more sprint stages after this so the fastmen will want their teams to control the race but 11 years on his form this season has been dubious so perhaps one of the new generation such as Sam Bennett or Pascal Ackermann A relatively gentle introduction to the Pyrenees: two first category climbs with long run-in to the opener There is 130km for the break to build a lead so expect someone from the early move to win; the overall contenders may well end up watching each other for signs of weakness over the Peyresourde and Hourquette d’Ancizan while saving strength for the coming days so the stage winner could be a breakaway specialist who isn’t one of the very best climbers someone such as Alessandro De Marchi or Britain’s Steve Cummings if he is selected At least one or two of the favourites who are weaker time triallists should be effectively put out of the reckoning with the Col du Soulor halfway through to sort the wheat from the chaff and the finish atop one of the longest and hardest climbs in the Pyrenees but perhaps not as cataclysmic as might be seen at a steeper finish and it suits a climber who can use race skills to win rather than simply burning off the opposition - someone with the profile of Adam Yates and a different proposition with two first category mountain passes beforehand a target for a rider who is going for the mountains jersey with lots of points available on the three first cat climbs in quick succession: Julian Alaphilippe springs to mind There should be a straightforward selection among the yellow jersey contenders who should be down to a handful by now It’s the kind of stage that screams Egan Bernal or Nairo Quintana It’s six days since the last sprint stage and much will depend on how the heavier brethren have survived the Pyrenees which sprinters are still there and which of their lead-out men a second day’s respite for the overall contenders as long as the weather plays ball and there is no wind or rain This stage is out and home rather than the usual place to place so the changes of direction could make for an gruesome day if there is a strong northerly In such conditions one favourite thrives: Geraint Thomas A horrible stage for anyone who is merely trying to survive to Paris and probably with cross-winds in the opening kilometres where the break will form This is the last stage where a breakaway specialist who isn’t a pure climber can win; usually about half the teams still need a stage win by this point so the first hour could be very hectic The finish could go to a rider from the break or a sprinter who can climb such Peter Sagan Northwards through the Alps for six hours over three of the Tour’s greatest climbs with the Galibier topping out on a moonscape at 2,675m The descent to Valloire is short and initially technical so there is little hope of regaining much time lost on the climb The race for the overall will be down to three or four at most by now and for a stage winner you are looking at a climber who can descend the “roof of the Tour” at 2,770m above sea level and still less frequently at the key point in a stage It will make be hard for a break to stay away but teams will fire any domestiques with any strength left up the road to support their leaders later – Movistar particularly like this tactic – and the finish will be about who of a very select group has anything left on the short climb to Tignes Egan Bernal might be the best candidate depending on Ineos’s tactics A third successive day with a substantial portion above 2,000m with the thin air a likely factor at the final summit finish Val Thorens is long and evenly graded (5.5% average) so a team that gets there with numbers – say three or four riders – can control the race The only hope for those who want to break things up is to go flat out early on up the Cormet de Roselend The climbers who have dominated the last few days will fight out this stage win The demands of television are making it harder and harder for “away fans” to watch the final stage of the Tour in Paris and then get home on the same day but this year the race will break ground by closing at 9.30pm with the start at roughly the time most Parisians are contemplating their dinner “Demi-nocturne” racing like this is dependent on dry weather: any rain could make the laps of the Champs a dangerous washout This is the archive of The Observer up until 21/04/2025 The Observer is now owned and operated by Tortoise Media.