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Jeffrey Stephen Lagarde (54) passed away unexpectedly on February 5th
Jeff was wild at heart and the sweetest guy you could meet
He was an excellent Inventory auditor working for his father the last 20 plus years
His passion was music and had seen all the greats in concert throughout his life
If you knew Jeff then you knew his obsession with the guitarist Slash
His mischievous smile and piercing blue eyes will be forever missed by those who loved him
Jeff is survived in death by his father Stephen (Patty) Miller
and Pamela Hollingsworth as well as countless other family members and friends
Private funeral arrangements are being handled by Newcomer’s Funeral Home followed by a celebration of life at his father’s home
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President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the EU should be the start of a “march to independence” for the continent
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Monday
In an interview with France Inter days before the U.S. president’s 25 percent tariff on automobile imports and broader “reciprocal” tariffs are due to enter force
Lagarde said the moment represented a unique opportunity for Europe
and that it should not “lie down” in front of the U.S
“I consider it a moment when we can decide together to take our destiny into our own hands
and I think it is a march to independence,” she argued
adding that this applied to the fields of finance and information technology as much as to defense and energy.
to put ourselves in a good negotiating position
we must show that we’re not ready to lie down,” she added
She also highlighted the consequences that Trump’s measures will have for the U.S.
where consumer and business confidence has fallen sharply as what were previously considered negotiating tactics suddenly are now on the verge of becoming reality
automakers are tearing their hair out today trying to work out how they can carry on operating,” she said
with reference to the deep integration in the U.S
whose component industries have only received partial exemptions from the planned tariffs
Analysts argue that such factors will drive up car prices in the U.S
and could be compounded if domestic manufacturers see the loss of foreign competition as an opportunity to bolster their own profit margins
Trump told NBC at the weekend that he “couldn’t care less” if U.S
since he expected the final result to be that the U.S
Lagarde warned that the high degree of uncertainty created by the trade war means it’s impossible to say that the ECB has won its battle against inflation
which is still slightly above the Bank’s medium-term target of 2 percent
Trump suddenly decides to increase tariffs on the automobile sector to 25 percent
or to impose reciprocal tariffs from April 2
that inevitably changes things,” Lagarde said
The ECB’s Governing Council in recent days has appeared split over whether or not to carry on cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting on April 17.
Lagarde also showed that she still isn’t convinced by those arguing for the seizure of over €200 billion in Russian state assets frozen in European clearinghouses and depositaries
She stressed that the assets are already being used as collateral for loans to Ukraine from G7 countries
because if we insist on the application of international law
we have to respect international law ourselves,” she argued
would risk blowing a rare opportunity for Europe to present itself as a safe place for investment
at a moment when Trump’s efforts to expand presidential authority over the judicial system are raising questions in investors’ minds over the rule of law in the U.S
The numbers are unlikely to cause any dramatic change in thinking at the European Central Bank
Spain’s core settlement infrastructure continues to operate normally
But the Fund gives its implicit backing to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ plans to stabilize U.K
… assuming the numbers can be trusted
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AN #ACFRONTPAGE EVENT—European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde discusses Europe’s economic challenges and the path forward during IMF-World Bank Week at the Atlantic Council
The role of a global reserve currency should “never be taken for granted,” said European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday at an Atlantic Council Front Page event on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank Annual Meetings
Lagarde addressed a host of issues facing the continent, including the European Union’s (EU’s) ambition to create a central bank digital currency (CBDC)
what Europe’s lagging economic competitiveness means for the ECB’s fight against inflation
and the outsize impacts that the next US president’s approach to trade will have on the global economy
Below are more highlights from this conversation with Lagarde
which was moderated by Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe.
Daniel Hojnacki is an assistant editor on the editorial team at the Atlantic Council
Image: European Central Bank President Cristine Lagarde speaks with Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe on October 23
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The mosaic of the cul-de-four of the apse is pictured inside the Notre Dame de la Garde Basilica in Marseille
Visitors stand near paintings of ships in the Notre Dame de la Garde Basilica in Marseille
FILE - The Notre Dame de la Garde Basilica overlooks the harbor in Marseille
FILE - Pope Francis leaves the Notre Dame de la Garde Basilica at the end of a Marian prayer with the diocesan clergy
An ex-voto of a ship hangs inside the Notre Dame de la Garde Basilica in Marseille
Paintings of ships hang inside the Notre Dame de la Garde Basilica in Marseille
Notre Dame de la Garde has been venerated by all seafarers,” said Jean-Michel Sanchez
the head conservator of the basilica’s museum
He estimates the basilica’s collection of ex-votos
And that’s after those predating the French Revolution were destroyed in the anticlerical violence that followed it
The nautical motifs that dominate Marseille’s landmark church are inextricably linked to the city’s 2,600-year-old seafaring history
The first chapel was built in the 1200s on a barren rocky outcrop above the main port
France’s king ordered the construction of a fort around the chapel to defend the growing harbor
Most of it still serves as the pedestal on which the massive basilica that replaced the chapel was built in the 1850s
The name itself speaks to that connection between guarding the port and divine protection
the models hanging from the ceiling include elegant sailboats
three-masted ships and utilitarian cargo vessels
About once a month someone brings a new one — sometimes with an explanation
Among the most recent additions is a helicopter
donated a few years ago by civil defense forces
They were grateful for never having had an accident while conducting high-risk rescues of climbers in Marseille’s calanques
who works with the basilica’s historical collections
some just inscribed “merci a N D” — thank you to Our Lady — pack the walls
So many continue to be donated that church officials are now lining the terrace walls outside with them
“The connection of the people of Marseille with the Bonne Mère is transmitted from generation to generation,” said the basilica’s rector
One chapel is decorated with paintings of boats
including a 2011 work donated by a ship’s two captains
It gives thanks for their crews’ rescue of nearly two dozen North African migrants in the Mediterranean
is a 19th-century mosaic of a ship sailing between choppy and calm seas by a lighthouse
It’s an allegory of the church traversing the storms of history
“The Bonne Mère is a mother who welcomes everyone,” Spinosa said
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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that an escalation of disputes over trade levies kicked off by US President Donald Trump may have a detrimental effect on the world economy.
Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world
2025 at 9:03 AM EDTBookmarkSaveTakeaways NEWEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said artificial intelligence may undermine the region’s social model if countries don’t nurture the skills to harness such technology
Speaking at an ECB conference on AI on Tuesday
she recognized the promise of productivity gains offered by recent breakthroughs
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Europe must brace itself for potential shifts in US trade policy
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned
while President Donald Trump's administration refrained from imposing blanket tariffs on his inauguration day
selective measures could still emerge in the coming weeks
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday during an interview with CNBC
Lagarde stressed the need for Europe to "be prepared and anticipate what will happen in order to respond"
Trade is always a big talking point in Davos
fears of US protectionism are stealing the spotlight
Europe has long advocated for open markets
not just as a "moral principle," but also because it benefits economically from trade with the US
The eurozone's trade surplus with the United States stood at nearly 1% of gross domestic product in 2023
driven by key sectors such as chemicals and pharmaceuticals
Addressing the possibility of Europe withstanding a trade war
the idea that the US could significantly reduce imports from Europe to boost domestic manufacturing is "questionable," because the US economy is “running hot at the moment”
With the US economy running at full capacity and unemployment at historically low levels
she suggested that replacing European imports with domestic production "will take a bit of time"
The conversation also touched on European competitiveness
an issue that dominated discussions in 2024
Lagarde indicated that "the diagnosis is done" regarding Europe's economic future
citing reports by former ECB President Mario Draghi and economist Enrico Letta that called for urgent reforms on productivity and innovation amid demographic challenges
Lagarde emphasised that Europe moves when it faces an external threat
and the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy could act as a catalyst for reform
She highlighted that Europe's economic strength lies in its large consumer market
"We created the Single Market… but we did not finish the job"
pointing out that unresolved barriers to the free movement of goods and services could weaken Europe's position in global trade negotiations
Lagarde reinforced the ECB's commitment to measured
resisting market speculation over the pace and magnitude of the cuts
She reiterated confidence that inflation will fall to the 2% target this year
Markets are currently pricing in multiple ECB rate cuts this year
with some analysts predicting four reductions by summer
When asked if this pace seemed appropriate
saying that "gradual moves" are likely but that decisions will remain data-dependent
Lagarde also dismissed concerns that the ECB is falling behind the curve on rate cuts
pointing out that "we have not revisited inflation forecasts much in the last five sets of projections"
reinforcing confidence in the central bank's current approach
One key difference between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve is the pace of monetary easing
While the Fed has signalled a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle
the ECB has taken a more cautious approach
explaining that it reflects "a different economic setting" between the two regions
With inflation in Europe stabilising and economic growth forecast at 1% in 2025
Lagarde reiterated that the central bank's focus remains on price stability
and that its mandate does not include factors like employment
Lagarde also flagged energy prices as a key variable in future monetary policy decisions
suggesting that further declines in oil and gas costs could have a significant impact on inflation dynamics
She remained cautious about giving forward guidance
stating that "we will apply the method and take all the data as it comes"
As Europe navigates an increasingly uncertain global landscape
while policymakers keep a close eye on US trade decisions and their potential economic fallout
2025 at 3:12 AM EDTBookmarkSaveTakeaways NEWPresident Christine Lagarde said that the European Central Bank can’t relent on inflation
with the US administration’s trade policy creating uncertainty
“It is a daily struggle,” she told France Inter Radio on Monday
so that’s why I say it’s a constant battle.”
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Paul Valéry wrote that “the trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be”
Our expectations have indeed been swept aside in the last few years
Established certainties about the international order have been upended
Some alliances have become strained while others have drawn closer
We have seen political decisions that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago
The level of uncertainty we are facing is exceptionally high
An index of trade policy uncertainty currently stands at close to 350, more than six times its average value since 2021.[1] And indicators of geopolitical risk stand at levels not seen since the Cold War, outside of wars and major terrorist attacks.[2]
This new environment raises fundamental questions for monetary policy
How can we deliver price stability in a new geopolitical era
and I will naturally not cover every issue in my speech today
I will focus on the factors I consider to be particularly relevant in this new era
I will ask three questions: how is the environment in which we operate changing
What do these changes imply for our reaction function
And what do the changes imply for our policy communication
My main message is that in an environment of uncertainty
a strong commitment to maintaining price stability over the medium term is more important than ever
This commitment will require agility to respond to new shocks
albeit within a well-defined framework that limits short-sighted reactions and unbridled discretion
we will need to continue steering the public’s expectations
People will be looking to us – and other policymakers – to understand how we will navigate this more volatile era and help reduce
Even when we cannot provide certainty about the rate path
we can provide clarity about our reaction function
the main challenge we faced was a prolonged environment of too-low inflation
Although the review provided lessons that are relevant under any circumstances
its main focus was on understanding the causes of too-low inflation and how to ensure that it did not become embedded
The environment we are facing now is a different one
the direction of shocks is much harder to predict
In the decade before our last strategy review
we faced a range of structural and cyclical forces that were almost uniformly disinflationary. Now
we are seeing notable shifts in the drivers of inflation.
We still face structural factors like ageing and digitalisation that will probably be disinflationary in the coming years.[3] But we are also now facing new
two-sided shocks – mainly linked to trade and defence
as well as climate change – which can amplify or counteract the existing forces
Trade fragmentation[4] and higher defence spending in a capacity-constrained sector could in principle push up inflation
Yet US tariffs could also lower demand for EU exports and redirect excess capacity from China into Europe
the size of the shocks to inflation could potentially change
In the period from the great financial crisis to our last strategy review
we faced some very large negative shocks to growth
We saw a slow-moving downward drift in inflation that eventually seeped into inflation expectations
shocks might feed into inflation more directly and increase volatility
And this risk may be particularly acute for the euro area
as we are highly exposed to some of the new types of shock
For example, the euro area is very open to trade and part of integrated supply chains. Hence, trade fragmentation is likely to lead to larger, more disruptive relative price changes.[5] In a similar vein, the euro area is highly dependent on energy imports.[6] Geopolitical risks are likely to drive greater volatility in exchange rates and energy and commodity prices
the persistence of inflation could in some circumstances be greater
If such state-dependent pricing becomes standard when the economy is hit by large shocks, but the frequency of wage-setting remains below that of price adjustment, we could see inflation becoming more persistent.[9] Large shocks would lead to a faster pass-through to inflation
and then wages would have to catch up with prices in a staggered way
while services inflation only peaked in July 2023 and is still being pushed up by past shocks today
mainly through their delayed impact on wage adjustments
larger and possibly more persistent shocks
the way we have formulated our inflation target matters – that is
our target is symmetric and we work to achieve it over the medium term
This symmetric target has served us well during the recent inflation surge
helping to coordinate expectations and guide the inflation process back down towards 2%
But the formulation does not mean that headline inflation will always be at 2%
which is impossible in the kind of environment we are facing now
we must set our policy appropriately so that inflation is always converging back towards 2% over the medium term
This brings me to the second area: the reaction function
Our reaction function has always been state-dependent
policy should react differently depending on the context and the origin
Our medium-term orientation enables us to avoid reacting to small or passing shocks that will have faded by the time the effects of a policy change kick in
And it allows us to flexibly adjust the horizon within which we must return inflation to target
monetary policy reacts more forcefully to demand shocks where output and inflation move together
and “looks through” or reacts less to supply shocks that push output and inflation in opposite directions – if they are sufficiently small and transitory
Empirical evidence based on the last two decades finds that the ECB has largely followed this prescription. Generally, it has reacted more strongly to demand shocks than to supply shocks. But it has responded to supply shocks more forcefully when these shocks were persistent and inflation was high.[10]
The new environment requires us to emphasise two factors
The first is the anchoring of inflation expectations
“looking through” has always been conditional on inflation expectations remaining well anchored
The recent inflation surge has confirmed just how critical maintaining a strong anchoring is to successfully navigate a more volatile world
Our analysis finds that, if inflation expectations had been as poorly anchored as they were in the 1970s, policy rates would have had to rise to 8% at the peak of the recent tightening cycle to tame inflation, with very high costs for the economy.[11] With well-anchored expectations, recent disinflation has instead been achieved at a relatively low cost compared with similar episodes in the past.[12]
This experience can, in some ways, give us confidence for the challenges ahead: the relative stability of longer-term inflation expectations during a massive inflation surge suggests that our inflation target has a high degree of credibility, which was reinforced by the decisive actions we took to keep inflation expectations anchored.[13]
our starting point for the recent inflation episode was a decade of too-low inflation and correspondingly subdued inflation expectations
This meant the public were initially inattentive to inflation and took time to update their views
But there is some evidence that public awareness has been awakened by recent experience
Once consumers took notice of rising inflation
their inflation perceptions responded quickly but reduced more sluggishly when inflation started to fall
This sluggish response has contributed to the slow adjustment of consumer inflation expectations
We will only know through careful observation how long these memories will last
and consequently how sensitive inflation expectations will be to new shocks
close monitoring of inflation expectations – across markets
households and firms – will be central to our policy reaction function
Once the anchoring of inflation expectations is assured
the second factor we need to assess is how the current environment affects the optimal policy reaction to different type of shocks
If the Phillips curve becomes steeper at higher levels of inflation, meaning inflation responds faster to changes in activity, then it should also be easier for monetary policy to bring inflation down without imposing heavy costs on the economy. This would weaken one of the main rationales for “looking through” large supply shocks.[14]
there may be risks in generalising from recent experience where disinflation was relatively painless
Alongside well-anchored inflation expectations, the relatively low “sacrifice ratio” during this disinflation episode may reflect a unique set of conditions that will not be applicable to future shocks. In particular, the fact that we faced a series of negative shocks to income reduced the extent to which demand needed to be dampened by monetary tightening.[15]
Any future shocks we face – such as energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions or a large increase in spending on defence or infrastructure – will therefore have to be assessed through this framework
simple policy prescriptions will not be appropriate in the environment we now face
Within a well-articulated strategy and an unwavering commitment to price stability
we will need to retain agility to respond to complex circumstances as they arise
This has implications for our policy communication
Maintaining agility affects how we can talk about the future
And this applies particularly to our ability to give detailed guidance on the future path of interest rates
Forward guidance about the rate path is particularly useful under two circumstances
persistent shocks pushing it towards the effective lower bound
it gives the public confidence that monetary policy will be sufficiently persistent to dislodge those shocks and deliver on its target
while also helping insulate monetary conditions from spillovers from abroad
These benefits were all visible in the euro area from 2013 onwards when we first introduced rate forward guidance
forward guidance can be useful when shocks become two-sided following a long time at the lower bound
it can help to lay out the conditions for rate lift-off in a way that hedges against false positives and prevents a premature tightening
and thereby reduces uncertainty about the future path of rates
one of the lessons of the recent period is that such guidance can become less helpful when uncertainty about the nature of the shocks is rising
some of the lift-off criteria we applied to our 2021 rate forward guidance were tied to the baseline inflation projections
but the projections were slow in catching on to the reality of a much more persistent inflation shock
The combination of factors that created this shock – a worldwide pandemic producing bottlenecks in various sectors upon reopening and a major energy crisis – had not been seen since the end of the World War One
it would have been beneficial in our forward guidance to explicitly account for the risks and uncertainty surrounding the baseline
A general conclusion emerges: when the size and distribution of shocks becomes highly uncertain
we cannot provide certainty by committing to a particular rate path
forward guidance may constrain policy agility in the face of abrupt changes to the inflation environment
But we can provide clarity about our reaction function
We can still help the public to understand how we will navigate the new environment
we can clarify how we are likely to be affected by different states of the world
the ECB has been making greater use of scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis precisely to make our policy more robust to changing circumstances
together with our discussion of the balance of risks
are designed to ensure that policymaking can remain forward-looking and stay ahead of the shocks to come
At present, we are considering various scenarios related to tariffs and fiscal policy changes, and what they will imply for growth and inflation.[16]
we can clarify what kind of data we will look at to make our decisions
which helps the public to distinguish signals from noise
This is why in March 2023 we set out three key inputs for policy decisions: the inflation outlook – comprising both the baseline and risks around it – the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission
we saw large monetary policy shocks – linked both to rate decisions and indications on future rates – as markets were looking for orientation
market moves were less pronounced despite similar levels of interest rate uncertainty
which suggests that the markets better understood our reaction function
We also saw increased sensitivity to new data releases in the early tightening phase. But this diminished as markets understood which data we were focusing on and, especially, that data dependence should not be confused with “data-point dependence”.[17]
The lesson I draw is that laying out a clear reaction function is critical to tempering volatility in a world of exceptional uncertainty
The public must understand the distribution of possible outcomes ahead and how the central bank will react once it is sufficiently confident about which scenario it is facing
clarity on the reaction function can be seen as providing framework guidance – i.e
a type of guidance that comes from the discipline implicit in a monetary policy framework – without pre-committing to any particular rate path
as the latter would excessively constrain agility
The three inputs we are currently using are designed to deliver robust policy in the face of the particular constellation of shocks that have hit the euro in recent years
especially the staggered pass-through of a large inflation surge to wages
Whether we continue to use those same inputs in future will depend on the nature of the shocks that confront us
Our strategy assessment should nonetheless commit to integrating risk and uncertainty about key factors into our reaction function
The data we draw on should capture not only our central projection for the economy
but also the uncertainty surrounding that projection and a rich
Thomas Jefferson said that “eternal vigilance is the price of liberty”
Maintaining stability in a new era will be a formidable task
It will require an absolute commitment to our inflation target
the ability to parse which types of shocks will require a monetary reaction and the agility to react appropriately
Our response to the recent inflation episode should give the public confidence that we will always do whatever is necessary to deliver price stability – and that our policy frameworks can adapt to new circumstances
Central bankers will need to show agility to adjust their stance and their tools to changing circumstances
and they will need intellectual curiosity to challenge established principles and conventional wisdom
“The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty”
“Geopolitical Risk Index” (accessed on 10 March 2025)
“The impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflation”
“Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector New Keynesian perspective”
For an alternative view on the effects of ageing on inflation
“Navigating a fragmenting global trading system: insights for central banks”
“Challenges for global monetary policy in an environment of high inflation: the case of the euro area”
“What does new micro price evidence tell us about inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission?”
A non-parametric structural inflation model”
For details on data allowing an analysis of the frequency of wage-setting in the euro area
“A forward-looking tracker of negotiated wages in the euro area”, Occasional Paper Series
“Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices”
This pattern holds more generally for central banks in advanced economies; see Hofmann
“Targeted Taylor rules: monetary policy responses to demand- and supply-driven inflation”
“Anchoring Boundedly Rational Expectations”
“The global disinflation process and its costs”
“Monetary policy and the risks of de-anchoring of inflation expectations”
“Monetary policy in an unusual cycle: the risks
introductory speech at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra
“Strike while the Iron is Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve”
“The effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy in the euro area”
contribution to a panel at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium
there needs to be clarity that the central bank will respond appropriately in the event of large market disruptions
The ECB has a strong track record in providing liquidity during financial stress episodes and has two backstop instruments in its toolkit (the Outright Monetary Transactions and the Transmission Protection Instrument)
investor confidence in the liquidity policies and backstop instruments of the ECB acts as a self-stabilising force by limiting incentives to “run for the exit” during stress periods
and the Q&As during the September 2024 and October 2024 press conferences are prominent examples
Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged
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“We do not see ourselves behind the curve,” Lagarde said Wednesday in an interview in Davos, where she’s attending the World Economic Forum. “We are on this sort of regular, gradual path.”
2025 at 5:46 AM EDTBookmarkSaveEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said abrupt shifts in global trade and the region’s defense architecture will make it harder to keep inflation stable
Speaking at a conference in Frankfurt
Lagarde said the changes represent “two-sided shocks” that
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the retreat in inflation is progressing
though global trade friction continues to posing risks
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sat down with CNBC's Karen Tso for a wide-ranging, exclusive interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos
The meeting kicked off the day after the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, and the subject of potential trade tariffs were one of the dominant topics of discussion
"What we need to do here in Europe is to be prepared and anticipate what will happen in order to respond," Lagarde told CNBC
In response to rising digital transactions, the ECB is developing a digital euro
Lagarde was hesitant to confirm its rollout
to come together and to make sure that the legislative setting is in place so that we can actually either give the green light or say
Since taking office as president of the European Central Bank in November 2019
Lagarde has dealt with unprecedented challenges
With less than three years of her term remaining
Lagarde said she remains focused on the job at hand
"I don't care how I'm remembered
so that the rest of the players can actually play their game at their best," she said
Watch the video above for the full interview
During a press conference yesterday, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB)
rejected the idea of incorporating Bitcoin into European reserves on the basis that it is too volatile and associated with anti-money laundering
Her comments followed the Governor of the Czech National Bank saying the central bank would consider inclusion of Bitcoin with a weighting of up to 5% of its reserves
Governor Aleš Michl acknowledged Bitcoin’s volatility when discussing the potential holdings with the Financial Times
“If you compare my position with other bankers
so I’m a typical investment banker I would say
Although Czechia does not use the euro, it is a member of the ECB General Council. Mrs Lagarde said she was “confident that bitcoin will not enter the reserves of any of the central banks of the General Council.” The Czech central bank voted yesterday, with a statement that didn’t mention cryptocurrency
it confirmed that it will analyze the addition of other asset classes to its reserves but will not take action until the analysis is complete
It added it will continue to disclose all its investments on a quarterly and annual basis
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has committed to exploring the potential for a “national digital asset stockpile”
but said it would likely come from asset seizures rather than buying Bitcoin
Utah and Texas are considering including Bitcoin as part of state treasury holdings
A Utah house committee voted in favor this week (8 to 1)
and Texas appears to have two Bills pending
“On this matter that you referred to and whether central bank reserves should or could include bitcoins
I think there is a view around the table of the Governing Council
and most likely the General Council as well
that they should not be plagued by the suspicion of money laundering or other criminal activities
I am confident that bitcoin will not enter the reserves of any of the central banks of the General Council
I had a good conversation with my colleague from the Czech Republic
and I leave it to him to make whatever announcement he wants to make
Uncorrected transcript: Check against delivery
senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center
And it is truly my honor to welcome you today to our AC Front Page conversation with the president of the European Central Bank
This morning’s event keynotes our series of interviews with leading financial policymakers during the IMF-World Bank annual meetings
Both here at the Council and live from our studios inside the IMF
we are hosting fifty conversations this week on a range of issues
from China’s economy to digital currencies to the future of the Bretton Woods system
And I wanted to take a moment this morning to explain why we’re doing that
When we launched the GeoEconomics Center nearly four years ago
it was founded on a simple premise: Finance
foreign policy and national security are deeply interconnected
The events of the intervening few years have proved the point
Think of the pandemic and the resulting supply-chain shocks
Think of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and the way the tools of economic statecraft have been deployed by the G7 to respond
has sought to be the place that delivers new solutions for the challenges of our time
it was on this very stage two years ago that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered her friendshoring speech
just before the IMF-World Bank annual meetings
She called upon all of us to channel the spirit of Bretton Woods
to remember that 44 countries met in New Hampshire not after war but during war
She said at the time that they sought to build the future they hoped to win
And so the IMF and the World Bank to us are the quintessential geoeconomic institutions
international collaboration works and can deliver something better than what came before
And there is no one who more embodies that principle than our guest today
President Lagarde has been called upon to lead in extraordinarily difficult moments
In 2007 she became French finance minister
the first time a woman was appointed as G7 finance minister
she helped not just her country but the rest of Europe and her counterparts here in the US navigate the global financial crisis
In 2011 she became the first woman to lead the International Monetary Fund
Here she was asked to help manage the unfolding eurozone crisis and strengthen and stabilize the IMF after a difficult period
In 2019 she became the first woman to lead the European Central Bank
just before a global pandemic and a land war in Europe would send shockwaves through every economy in the euro area
she demonstrated what true leadership looks like
the opportunity to work for her at the IMF was an incredible honor
as I know it is for all those who have had the chance to learn from her
So it is truly my pleasure today to welcome President Lagarde back to the Atlantic Council as she joins the president and CEO of the Atlantic Council
CHRISTINE LAGARDE: He came with high recommendation from you
FREDERICK KEMPE: So salute to Josh and his remarkable GeoEconomics team; another amazing week you’re putting together
And you’re putting it together as we dismantle our offices here
our last major event at our old headquarters
We’re already moving into our new headquarters at 1400 L
I think you’re going to be amazed at the new convening space
We’ve got people tuning in all over the place because they want to hear what you have to say
So if you have questions we’re going to do them online today
All those in the audience live here can send them in through your phone if you like
which seems like the right place to start with you
and I’m really interested in a situation where you’re looking at inflation coming down
It was as high as 10.6 percent October 2022
and they may be on the edge of a recession
GDP outgrowth—growth outlook forecast under 1 percent for the euro zone
As you weigh these factors looking at future decisions how do you weigh inflation coming down but growth—which is a good thing
very much for your way too kind introduction and it’s really a pleasure being here
I was wondering whether you follow a tradition that is often observed where when you leave a place you allow anybody who is here for the last time to pick up something from the—
FREDERICK KEMPE: That’s the end of our program today
but it’s wonderful to be back at the Atlantic Council and congratulations for having expanded so much the scope of your work and your research
and thank you for starting with monetary policy because this is really my business
So at the European Central Bank we are driven by a mandate which is pretty simple and straightforward
which has a primary objective which says price stability
It’s upon us to define what it is and we have in our last strategy review defined it as 2 percent medium term symmetric
We dissect inflation as much as we can and we try to distinguish what is sort of headline inflation
which is what is felt and resented sometimes by people
to really understand where it is heading and how our decisions on interest rates in particular are going to affect inflation
of course—and we are—at this point in time we are rather satisfied with the progress made because
we started off back in October two years ago at a reading of 10.6 percent on average and we are now below 2 percent for the moment
We have reasons to believe that it will move up again above 2 percent in the next few months but it’s really good progress that we have contribute—we have largely contributed to
because it impacts on inflation and it is that impact of growth on inflation that we are attentive to
The Fed has this dual mandate of price stability but also growth
We have a primary mandate which is price stability
FREDERICK KEMPE: And so let’s get to European competitiveness and growth
Your predecessor Mario Draghi just released a major report on the future of competitiveness
you’ve not just been in your current job as a central bank governor but you’ve been a minister in France
You were in the private sector for twenty years
and so you know that it all links together in how competitive a place is
He raised many issues that fall on the fiscal side—not your job—but the ECB does play a role in financial regulation of capital markets
You have urged people to swiftly follow up on Draghi’s plan
how concerned are you about European competitiveness
and what’s most urgent in the Draghi report
a severe but just diagnosis of where Europe is
I’m particularly attentive to three directions that he’s identified
The first one—because they matter for monetary policy
Europe lags in productivity way behind the United States
US productivity has increased by 50 percent
So Europe is lagging behind in terms of productivity
and identify which sectors are going to drive productivity
When you look at the gap between 50 and 28 percent
you see that a lot of that results from the tech sector
it’s about two or three times higher in Europe than it is in the US If you look at the price of gas
it’s four to five times higher in Europe than in the United States
What he identifies as the way forward is rapid and smart decarbonization of the economy so that Europe can lead in terms of non-fossil energies
where we are a little bit ahead of the game—with caveats—but which would lead to a much cheaper source of energy once the investments are made
And which would also be a good way to adapt—to adapt to the climate change impacts that we are suffering more and more by the day
The third dimension which he identifies as well is digitalization of our economies
And that is one where the productivity gap is obvious
and where a collective endeavor by the Europeans is called for
What is needed behind it and why does it matter to us
to move into the innovation journey that is needed for that
And you need capital that is prepared to take risk
This is not something that we are very good at in Europe
If you look at the volume of venture capital that is raised in Europe
it’s minimal relative to what is raised in the US
for a capital market union that is common to all
integrated market from a regulatory point of view
with common trade and post-trade infrastructure
where we are completely scattered all over
So those are the three directions where it matters to us—improved productivity
especially with an aging population as we have in Europe
because it’s clearly one of the domain that can shock our economies
and has shocked all our economies but Europe in particular recently
because there will be productivity improvement as a result as well
coming back to the core question behind this
we’ve known that these things need to be fixed for a long time
But how does one now—what would be different now that one would actually execute on something like capital markets
CHRISTINE LAGARDE: You remind me of a famous Margaret Thatcher comment
And that’s exactly where I think Europe is
those things have been identified—probably in a more piecemeal way
One of the great values of the excellent Draghi report is that it brings it all together by someone who’s been in all positions
so he knows about the territorial aspects of some of the reforms
He has been president of the European Central Bank before me
so he knows how bringing everyone together is necessary and relies also on other unions than just monetary union
And he’s been president of—prime minister of Italy
so he appreciates the politics that is behind it
So value is comprehensive by somebody who has a holistic view of the issues
it’s—this is now going into the weeds and rolling sleeves up and getting the job done
but this is what the European leadership at all levels of institutions will have to do
How do you go about a capital market union
Who do you need to bring around the table to say
it’s not a question of taking it away from you
but bringing it to a level where major operations
FREDERICK KEMPE: Thank you for that very clear
So I won’t—we don’t want to turn this into a press conference; that’s not the purpose of the Atlantic Council
But I do have one follow-up question on your first answer
from Mark Conahan: Is it appropriate for markets to begin pricing in an aggressive rate-reduction path in anticipation for economic data even when the ECB’s forecasts seem more sanguine
And this really gets to the point that if you look only at the inflation data you may go in one direction
It’s not your mandate to look at the economic data
I think the real question behind this is: Are you being too sanguine
CHRISTINE LAGARDE: What we have done since last June on the basis of the data that we had and our baseline
We have reiterated many times—and I’m happy to do it again
because it’s really the way it works—we are data dependent and we look at everything that’s available
And we analyze those data on the basis of three key criterias
we were confident on the basis of the data that we were receiving and observing that the disinflationary path was underway and that we could continue to dial back the restrictive monetary policy that was in place—that is in place
We need to be cautious because data will come—will come up and will indicate to use what is the state of the economy
and there will be a judgmental aspect to our decisions
So from the immediate to the generational question
you’ve delivered a truly fascinating speech last month at the IMF
and you said central bankers today—and any of you who have not read it
I’m an amateur historian as well as a think tank leader
But you talked about how central bankers today have better tools to manage structural changes than the 1920s
Here’s your quote: “Two specific parallels between two ‘twenties’
the 1920s and the 2020s,” which I found fascinating
we’re seeing a setback in global trade integration and a stride toward progress in technological progress.” So AI on the one side and decoupling/derisking
I would add a third element to this that was there in the 1920s
whether it was the Great Depression or whether in the end it was world war
What makes you more confident of our challenges today
if you’re looking at the 1930s versus the potential 2030s
each one of us has to do what one has to do
So you are the historian and you can do the sort of geopolitical comparative analysis between the 1930s back then and the 2030s now
because I have to focus on what impacts monetary policy
And you would take me into too political direction
But what gives me more confidence today—maybe it’s twofold
The numbers we have on trade are not downward
So if you look at the forecast by the IMF for the next couple of years
I think it’s 3.1 next year and 3.4 the year after
So we are not in a world where trade stops and trade declines
And I think we have to be attentive to the composition and the distribution; so no less trade
strategies of corporate to have China plus one or to have plus one
but certainly to continue to use the world in order to benefit from elasticity or in order to benefit from larger market outside home base
So I don’t think that trade is here to go on the basis of the information that we have and the analysis that we can conduct
I think the second reason I’m more optimistic is that central banks in those days
they exacerbated the problems because they were operating within a rigid framework
And I think that we don’t have that rigid framework anymore
the gold standards and the reference that currencies had vis-à-vis each other with gold as the standard is no longer with us
a much more flexible system which allows for that room to maneuver in a less brutal and rigid way on the economies
still in that monetary toolbox that we have and the way that framework is organized
inflation expectations is one of the major compass that is being used in order to make sure that inflation comes back to that target that most of us around the world have of 2 percent
while there are interesting similarities in terms of decline of trade and massive technology breakthrough
those who forget history are condemned to repeat it
I’m going to ask for a visual aid here from our AV team
because I’m going to talk here about central-bank digital currency
something of a passion of our GeoEconomics Center here
We’ve studied central-bank digital currencies closely
What you’re seeing right now is one of our most clicked-on and most-viewed webpages of the Atlantic Council
which tells you what geeks follow the Atlantic Council
But the ECB is currently in a two-year preparation phase of the digital euro
so you’re testing it for real-world-use cases
What are the factors that are going to lead to a decision on whether a digital euro will be deployed at the end of the two years
Aligned with that is you’ve made an argument for digital euros
So I guess there’s actually three questions
and then the third is we’ve been pushing for the US participation and leadership on this issue of digital assets
how do you view the role of the US on central bank digital currency
So it’s really a three-part question on digital currencies
how are you going to make a decision to go
And it’s a phase that will finish at the end of 2025
provided that the legislative process is completed
then the governing council of the euro system will decide to launch for real or not
it follows this two-prong approach that hopefully will work
where we explore from a technological and practical point of view how the digital euro will work
will have to pass a law that will define what the digital euro is
And those two tracks are working in parallel
My hope—because a lot of work has already been covered under the previous Belgium presidency—my hope is—and Hungarian presidency
But we now have a new European Parliament which has
We will have a legal framework in which our technology efforts and definition will be inserted
I think the reason we do that is that everything is digital
is gradually—and more rapidly than gradually—becoming digital
There are lots of things that are taking place that way
And that central bank money is critically important for the trust that people have in the system
And we know that that bank note is always going to be honored
which is what commercial banks create by activating
But if you just look at central bank money
Why would we always and forever rely on banknotes as our basis for the currency
So I think we owe it to future generations
to build that alternative of digital currency
the security that we want to give each other
and the respect that we have for both the confidentiality of information
which we’re working hard so that there is as much privacy as possible
but equally the fact that it cannot be totally
totally anonymous and facilitate the likes of money laundering
Central bank money should be digital as well
And there are countries in Europe where banknotes are hardly ever used
So we need to have that anchor established in digital—in a digital way
I think the second reason we are doing that is the fact that payment systems are not exactly sovereign
and more to the point they are very fragmented
there are at the moment thirteen countries that are operating in an isolated manner and which are not linked to the rest of the system
Having a digital euro is a way to actually bring that together on the back of whatever infrastructure will be available
but which will essentially facilitate peer-to-peer point of sales off-hours payment between people in the trade
it’s also a way to really establish your sovereignty
Ananya Kumar from our team is asking about the parallel conversations happening about undercutting the international role of the dollar and the euro at the BRICS summit this week
How do you view the geoeconomic role of the digital euro within this context
And perhaps we could add the digital dollar to that
So I think here we’re touching on two different things
which I tried to explain and which we are working on
and we’ll hopefully launch at the end of 2025
I think what is also important is linkages between payments systems
because at the moment we have too fragmented a payments system around the world
people want to remit money back home—and it is the case for a lot of migrants who are working away from home and want to send their salary back home—it takes forever
it does funny loop-the-loop circuits around the world for some countries
So interlinking payments system so that people can actually transact easily and cheaply and transparently
so that remittances can go back to the Philippines or to Thailand or to Mexico in a smooth and cheap way
we have a system which is called TARGET Instant Payment system
which applies to retail transactions and which
we announced that we were prepared to link that TIPS—this instant payment system—with other instant payment systems around the world
And I would like to pay tribute to your CBDC Tracker
But I think it would be interesting to also track the instant payments systems that are blossoming around the world
And it’s a system that should not be closed off or restricted to the G7 countries
It’s a system that has vocation to open up to multi-countries around the world in order to serve consumers and people who transact in the best possible ways
you can’t comment or instruct the US what to do on its own digital currency
but we seem to be a little bit behind on that from that the European—
CHRISTINE LAGARDE: Can I say something on that
CHRISTINE LAGARDE: I will not comment on it
But I think we need to be really attentive to developments around the world
We publish annually the International Role of the—of the Euro
in which currency they keep reserves at the central banks in which currency they do trade finance
And the role of a currency should never be taken for granted
It’s the exorbitant role of the dollar that Giscard d’Estaing
And the dollar is at around 50 percent of all those transactions
And there is—there are rising—there are phenomenons of rising movements concerning gold
China has been buying gold like never before
Russia is supporting gold because it is extracting a lot of gold out of its underground
and there are clearly attempts to push other currencies
The renminbi is neck to neck with the euro on trade finance
So I think we all need to be attentive to developments
We all need to be attentive to new technologies
We need to listen to our customers and our compatriots to see what will serve them best with the concern of defending the currency
establishing the sovereignty as it should be by legitimate means
FREDERICK KEMPE: That’s an excellent answer
So let’s talk a bit about Russia and its immobilized reserves
Six months ago at the last IMF World Bank meetings we’d been through several months of negotiations between the US and EU on the use of $300 billion of frozen Russian reserves
G7 announced in Italy—brought forward interest income into a fifty-billion-dollar payment
It seemed like something as a breakthrough
The CFR—the Council on Foreign Relations—I think it was back in April you were talking about how freezing assets is different than confiscating assets and the global legal consequences of that
What role would the ECB play now in getting the fifty billion dollars plan over the line
Maybe let me describe what the new idea is so that it’s—we all understand what the difference is with the old idea
So the new idea that is being discussed is to use the interests generated by those frozen—not confiscated
So this interest generated by the frozen assets that actually belong to the CSD—Euroclear—and to use that in order to serve the debt of Ukraine vis-à-vis the European Union
I don’ t want to forget anyone in that game but
So it’s very different from confiscating the capital
What I think the analysis is the interest generated do not belong to Russia
The links between the CSD and Russia did not provide for any attribution or ownership of those interests as a result of which it is in the books and in the accounts of the CSD—Euroclear—and can be used for the purpose that is intended by the lenders
So that’s really what is at stake and I think it’s vastly different from saying we confiscate your assets
They will remain frozen as long as it’s determined by those who made the decisions and the interest generated that do not belong to Russia but to the CSD are used to serve the debt of—that is
FREDERICK KEMPE: So you’re comfortable with that approach it sounds like
Why can’t it move faster and what would be the ECB role in this
I think it was two days ago that the European—I think it was the parliament or the three institutions together have actually decided to issue the loan
which the exact amount I can’t remember—I think it’s thirty billion—that is backed—guaranteed
in terms of debt services—by the interest generated as such
And I know that other G7 countries are moving in that direction
and I don’t know about the US You’d have to—you’d have to ask Janet
FREDERICK KEMPE: Let’s go back to US and China and trade
You talked—it’s one of the overwhelming themes of this week
On the other hand you have manufacturing over capacity of China being imposed on the world
What are the specific long-term risks of what’s going on with this potential decoupling between Western economies and China
How concerned are you about the Chinese manufacturing overcapacity on the one hand and rising tariffs on the other
according to the rules that partners have agreed with each other—meaning essentially the WTO rules—is beneficial for innovation
It’s beneficial for the development of the activity
Has proven extremely good for some countries that have managed to reduce poverty as a result of extended activity and development of the economy
as a result of trade being the major driver
And I think that we all stood to benefit from trade in many respects
whether they are tariff or nontariff barriers
are likely to have a negative impact on that
On—I think it would have an impact on inflation as well
There is clearly overcapacity in certain sectors in China
And we have to remind our partners that there are rules by which we trade
which they have consented when they joined the WTO
But I think that jumping to the conclusion that the economy will fare better at home because we have a big market
I think is a bit of a far-fetched conclusion that I don’t—I don’t see in the history of large economies
Because when you look at that—you’re a historian—when you look at that
it’s pretty clear that periods of restrictions and barriers have not been periods of prosperity and strong leadership around the world
So whoever in this country is ultimately the president
The times when the United States has been in strong leadership
have most often coincided with periods of trade around the world and engagement of the country
Because the US economy is such a large and powerful economy
and it has to project in the world on the global stage
And this gets to the question of leadership at central banks and finance ministries
And we’d like to show you the disparity here between—this is our own data visualization
so the team is very good at this kind of thing
Twelve percent of the world’s finance ministers are female
Thirteen percent of the central bank governors
But are there implications for the global economy
Is this something we should fix just because it doesn’t seem right
or is there actually implications for the global economy in this—in this visualization
CHRISTINE LAGARDE: I think it’s abysmally small and does not reflect the availability of talents and merits that many economists
and financial experts have around the world
So it does not—there’s a whole pool of talent that is not tapped into
for putting that in in such a colorful way
FREDERICK KEMPE: And but so the economic impact is we’re not tapping enough—
it’s talent—a pool of talent that is untapped
that diversity is a source of better decision
Whether it’s in the financial sector or otherwise
And I don’t expect you to prognosticate what will happen here in November or give a view on that
You’re one of the most remarkable transatlantists/atlanticists we know
You have a great appreciation of this country and the transatlantic alliance
What message would you share with our American audience about how their decision now and through December 5th can impact not just Europe
I’ve had ministers of foreign countries complain to me that they don’t get to vote in the US elections
But what do you think the stakes are in our own democratic process and elections
CHRISTINE LAGARDE: I agree with them that a lot is at stake
will have ramifications around the world in a very significant way
although I understand the concern is much more at home on inflation and the economy and all that
But it has massive implications outside the United States because of what I’ve just said
The United States is leading in multiple ways and has to deploy its leadership for the common good
FREDERICK KEMPE: And maybe then let’s put this a little bit of a different way
For Europe and the US to maintain their leadership role in this inflection point in history
where we’re going to be shaping the global future yet again together
CHRISTINE LAGARDE: I think we need to remember what history has forged between us
I don’t want to go back to Washington and Lafayette
reading the letters that these two men exchanged and how they played a role in structuring that history
should always be a reminder that in whichever position
And I think that there are some bounds of history that is seen on the Normandy beaches
that is seen on the East Coast of the United States
FREDERICK KEMPE: I think Washington and Lafayette is probably a good spot to close
So please join me virtually and also here in the audience in thanking Christine Lagarde
Image: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at an Atlantic Council Front Page event held on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings on October 23