In our Vanguards of HPC-AI series
HPC Operations in the National Center for Computational Sciences Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory
She became involved in scientific computing in 2008 as an undergraduate at Reed College in Portland
and her involvement in HPC began in 2009 at Florida State University
in Mathematics/Physics at Reed College and an M.S
in Computational Science at Florida State University
She has more than a decade of experience in HPC
having previously been Group Leader of the System Acceptance & User Environment Group in the National Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS)
which is home to the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
She also is part of OLCF’s systems testing team and led acceptance for the Summit supercomputer (formerly the world’s no. 1 system) and for Frontier, housed at the OLCF and the world’s first certified exascale-class supercomputer (currently the world’s no. 2 system)
and performance evaluation and optimization of scientific applications
She is a member of IEEE and ACM and serves in the ACM SIGHPC Executive Committee and the SC Conference Steering Committee
Melesse Vergara on being recognized as an HPC-AI Vanguard
What was your first involvement in HPC or AI
I became involved in scientific computing in 2008 writing my senior thesis at Reed College in Portland
had a small Apple cluster that I used to run simulations of snowflake formation
I got into HPC in 2009 as a graduate student at Florida State University working in the HPC Center at FSU as a Technical Support Assistant in lieu of a TA/RA-ship
What is your passion related to your career path
One of the most fun aspects of HPC engineering is that you get to solve a broad range of problems getting an application to run well and run at scale – sometimes to even run at all
There is always something new to learn and the feeling of finding a solution to a problem that unblocks and/or unleashes breakthrough science is extremely rewarding
Enabling and supporting a wide range of science domains is something very unique about our field
Do you prefer working as an individual contributor or a team leader
I enjoy making individual technical contributions to larger projects to meet ambitious goals
It is how I have learned about a wide range of topics that I may not have been able to learn without hands-on practical experience
As I’ve advanced in my profession and gained more experience
most of my work revolves around leading small and large teams to accomplish ambitious goals
It is a very rewarding role and allows me to work with individual team members to identify opportunities for their own professional growth
Seeing how much more impactful a project is when it is the result of a collaborative effort that includes broad perspectives has shaped my role and attitude as a team leader
Who or what has influenced you the most to help you advance your career path in this community
The “who” is difficult to answer succinctly
Many folks have helped me along the way – from my supervisor at FSU for suggesting I apply for the Student Volunteer program at SC10
to my group leader at Purdue for supporting my involvement in the community
and many folks at ORNL and in the HPC community that I met through SC for encouraging me to pursue bigger and larger challenges and believing in me
The “what” is easy: the SC conference and its community
build a stronger and deeper pipeline of talented and passionate HPC and AI professionals
Investing in programs that can bring a diverse set of folks to the field at multiple stages of the pipeline
with a special focus on the beginning of the pipeline
There are several efforts happening around the world
and finding ways to collaborate and capture those efforts would be useful
opening more avenues for folks that are interested but may not have experience yet – that would be great
The US has several programs but is often limited by citizenship
which can leave many potential candidates out
What does it take to be an effective leader in HPC and AI
Being willing to learn both from the continuously evolving landscape
Finding ways to collaborate across organizations and fields is key for any effective leader in my opinion
What is the biggest challenge you face in your current role
Now that we’ve entered the exascale era which has also intersected with the generative AI explosion
is to understand how the facility services and support ecosystem needs to evolve to adapt to the new requirements of our users
What changes do you see for the HPC / AI community in the next five-10 years
And how do you see your own skills evolving during this time frame
including: a heavier focus on energy efficiency
I’d like to dive deeper into AI-assisted modeling and simulation
and quantum computing and its applications in science
Do you believe science drives technology or technology drives science
Scientific breakthroughs have made possible the devices we use on a regular basis today
technology can drive science as we have seen in the last couple of years with the explosion of large language models and its applications
That boom has driven the market to develop chips optimized for that unique workload
in some cases at the expense of features used by today’s scientific applications
Please share with us your personal interests and hobbies
My husband Michael and I enjoy local breweries with our two “bears”
who we adopted from nearby rescues during the pandemic
and binge watching all kinds of series from sitcoms and dramas to telenovelas
you’re either forging new paths or stuck in traffic
Tier 0 doesn’t just clear the road — it builds the autobahn
The MLPerf1.0 benchmark has made one thing clear …
This ebook from our friends over at Rescale
focuses on why the historical methodology for determining cost
price per core hour is at best incapable of providing effective cost optimization for HPC workloads
it could increase your overall cost of ownership and slow innovation and productivity
Assessing the cost of your HPC practice […]
By JoAnn Adkins
meaning greater coordination is needed at city
county and state levels for national and international policies to be effective
FIU Professor Assefa Melesse will spend the next year engaging with mayors
governors and other officials to advance national policy on climate security
Melesse is one of nine Jefferson Science Fellows for 2023-2024
a select group of scientists helping to build capacity for science
technology and engineering expertise within the U.S
he and his family will call the nation’s capital home as he works with the Office of the U.S
Special Presidential Envoy for Climate and other agencies working on climate security and climate diplomacy
It may seem like uncharted territory for the Earth and Environment researcher who specializes in remote sensing and hydrological modeling in FIU’s Institute of Environment
Melesse has spent much of his career getting his science in front of the right people to help effect positive policy changes
management strategies and development planning
He knows what it takes to convene stakeholders with competing interests and foster a dialogue that actually delivers community-based solutions for international problems
good data and science alone will not solve the entire problem we face when it comes to the environment,” Melesse said
“Data is good for diplomacy and negotiations
and understanding this process and knowing what it takes is critical in addressing environmental issues.”
Melesse has worked to ensure scientific data ends up in the hands of politicians negotiating the management of the Nile River’s resources
controversy has surrounded Ethiopia’s effort to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
designed for much-needed electricity production
Other countries have expressed concerns about water availability
which gets 97 percent of its drinking and irrigation water from the Nile
Melesse organized the International Conference on the Nile and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in 2020 to bring experts together to share scientific information
he has continued to convene experts focused on local solutions and even published a book sharing scientific data from the conference to help inform negotiations
including work on climate change modeling in South Florida and the Caribbean
to Washington to explore local community-based policies designed to counter the climate crisis
He will engage directly with representatives from offices of mayors
“If I apply the knowledge of climate diplomacy to achieve climate security and promote adaptation strategies to avert climate disasters
that will be an achievement,” Melesse said
and he’ll also help develop a climate guide for U.S
embassies and consulates to use with local leaders
The Jefferson Science Fellows is a program of the National Academies of Science
The 2023-2024 class marks the 20th anniversary of the program
has worked to safeguard precious water resources for two decades
An FIU Institute of Environment professor has published a book addressing concerns surrounding the operation and filling of the largest dam in Africa
Receive daily FIU stories and updates directly to your inbox
Renowned Ethiopian singer Muluken Melesse died on Tuesday in Washington
The vocalist rose to fame at a time of enormous political and social unrest in Ethiopia
as the 1974 Ethiopian Revolution gave way to a military dictatorship
Muluken's songs from the 1970s and 80s were filled with love and longing for better times
"He came through at a time when people were really down," said Sayem Osman, who has contributed articles about contemporary Ethiopian music to blogs and magazines
Muluken was born in the Gojjam province of Northern Ethiopia in 1951
where he studied singing with a visiting musician who taught lessons there
"And Muluken at that time got the [music] bug," Sayem said
Muluken started performing in local clubs in the 1960s when he was barely a teenager
Love songs like "Mewdeden Wededkut" ("I Love Being in Love")
"Hagerwa Wasamegena" ("She's from Wasamegena")
"He's the king of the love songs for me," said Sayem
Sayem said Muluken's popularity had a lot to do with the talented female lyricists he worked with on these songs
including Shewaleul Mengistu and Alem Tsehay Wodajo
"Who else but a woman would know how to be described or how to be looked upon?" said Sayem
But it was tough to be an artist in a country under military rule
he moved to the United States and settled in the Washington
He continued performing groovy love songs for a time
before giving them up entirely in order to focus on his newfound faith
"And he never performed this music ever again."
Muluken took to singing gospel songs at church events
"YeYesus Wetadernegn" ("I'm Jesus's Soldier") — one of many songs Muluken Melesse sang after converting to evangelical christianity
Even though Muluken turned his back on secular music during his later years
his early work has continued to influence younger generations of musicians
"He became like a conduit into getting even deeper into the traditional music of Ethiopia for me," said Ethiopian-American singer, songwriter and composer Meklit Hadero
Meklit's 2014 version of the folk song "Kemekem" — which the singer describes as "a love song for the person with the perfect Afro" — was inspired by a version Muluken made famous decades ago
"And I will be so forever grateful to him."
Meklit added she will never be able to get enough of Muluken's singing
"It has so much movement and vibrance in it
You just are kind of on a river following his tone and it's captivating," she said
"The whole human experience was contained within that voice."
Audio and digital story edited by Jennifer Vanasco; audio produced by Alejandra Marquez Janse
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winning a Fulbright-Hays Doctoral Dissertation Research Abroad (DDRA) fellowship was “a match made in heaven.” He was elated to learn in September that he was one of only 142 awardees nationwide of this prestigious fellowship
Fulbright-Hays fellowships support area studies research in all world regions outside the U.S
and they provide one year of funding that includes a robust stipend plus travel and research assistance
to begin 12 months of fieldwork on the risk factors of maternal depression and anxiety among Ethiopian women.
rates of prenatal and postpartum depression and anxiety for reproductive-age women are alarmingly high in Ethiopia and broader Sub-Saharan Africa
Billions of dollars in foreign assistance to the region in the past two decades have had little impact on this complex issue
Biniyam seeks to tease apart the many risk factors for maternal depression and anxiety that have primarily been studied only in Western contexts
an interlocking set of socioeconomic conditions that have been correlated with maternal mental health outcomes in other populations.
To get at how these intricate risk factors manifest for Ethiopian mothers
Biniyam will conduct a mixed-methods study that will include surveys and interviews with women from different neighborhoods
He will also gather neighborhood crime data and other statistics
which requires gaining the cooperation of government entities
that Biniyam foresees as the most difficult
“The biggest challenge in the country is the bureaucracy
If you don't have people that you know in those places it is extremely difficult to get anything done.”
Biniyam is uniquely poised to rise to the challenge
as a young child and grew up mostly in Chicago
Biniyam attended Wittenberg University in Springfield
in Biochemistry & Molecular Biology and Political Science
But it was the community service he engaged in as an undergraduate that would illuminate his future path
and Habitat for Humanity—“taught me to see how people live
and that the source of a lot of issues is really not having the resources needed in terms of public health,” says Biniyam
Biniyam has traveled back to his home country several times as a volunteer public health officer in a rural hospital
he plans to volunteer again in rural areas
He is also looking forward to catching up with relatives
the priority is the research,” says Biniyam
Biniyam wants to bring Sub-Saharan Africa into the literature on maternal mental health
But he also aspires to help formulate “culturally applicable intervention programs that other health professionals and policymakers can carry out in the region” and which are currently lacking
he plans to pursue a career as a university professor focused on maternal mental health outcomes
“Applying for a major fellowship like Fulbright-Hays can be
but he got off to a good start by attending a Fulbright-Hays information session hosted by the Graduate College’s Office of External Fellowships
Applications for research abroad opportunities like Fulbright-Hays are invariably stronger when they include a letter of affiliation from a host country institution
and arranging such a letter takes time and effort
Biniyam says he began reaching out to local contacts immediately after the info session
His persistence paid off in the form of two supporting letters from key officials
Applications for Fulbright-Hays are reviewed by scholars in the applicant’s field or a closely related field
Biniyam offers this advice to potential applicants: “Even though it is a very competitive award
I suggest that people still apply and get the feedback
Because they can see where their research is headed—how others see their research from different perspectives
outside of their advisor and their close-knit friends who know the material already.”
Dana N. Johnson is Assistant Director of External Fellowships in the Graduate College
where she enjoys supporting Illinois graduate students as they compete for national and international fellowships and grants
in cultural anthropology from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and continues to follow her research interests in Serbia
and the socioeconomic aspirations of youth
You may see her around town at a lecture on one of these topics
picking through an antique mall or watching her dog chase squirrels
Graduate College 507 East Green Street Suite 101
Phone: 217.333.0035 Fax: 217.244.0621Email: grad@illinois.eduMap
Verónica Melesse Vergara leads a team that ensures the world's fastest supercomputers are ready for groundbreaking research. When systems like Summit and Frontier, the fifth and first fastest in the world, are delivered to Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Vergara uploads user software and runs tests to troubleshoot problems. She communicates with scientists to help with any issues they encounter. It's a job that brings new problems to solve every day. That's what she loves about it.
Being part of the team that deployed Summit at ORNL, which debuted as the fastest supercomputer in the world in 2018. I led acceptance testing for Summit, my first large-scale project role, leading a team of more than 25 technical and research professionals with different areas of expertise from across the organization.
The science that the Summit supercomputer has enabled since then, including serving as a scientific instrument to screen thousands of drug compounds during the COVID-19 pandemic to assist experimentalists, amazes me every day.
Mentoring – both to serve as a mentor but also encouraging my group members and others in the organization to mentor. In my opinion, mentoring is one of the best ways to broaden participation in our field and as a bonus helps us develop new skills.
What is your biggest professional dream?Contributing to the next big leap in computing. Now that the exascale computing era is here with the launch of Frontier, our latest supercomputer, I am excited to see what comes next and would love to contribute to shaping that future.
Not speaking up. I often worried about how something would be received or wanted to double- and triple-check something before bringing up an idea in a discussion. Over time, I realized that it is OK to make mistakes and to ask questions, even those you may think are silly. Most of the time there is someone else sitting around that same table wondering the exact same thing.
What motivates you?Finding the solution to a problem – that ‘aha!’ moment that hits when you find and fix a bug in your code or when you solve an issue for one of the many scientists running on Summit and Frontier is what motivates me.
“Always say yes” – while saying "yes" can help open some opportunities, it can also become a slippery slope. It is OK to be strategic about which opportunities to pursue and take time to consider if they align with your goals before committing.
Integrity, which results in honest, open communication between teams and helps build trust.
In the relatively short time that I’ve lived in Knoxville, I have seen a lot of change already. One thing I would love to see is for the city to have a light-rail system connecting North/East/West/South Knoxville with Oak Ridge. Particularly, with the rapid population growth, having better public transportation would make a big impact on traffic as well as reduce carbon emissions.
What don't people know about you?Growing up I wanted to be a veterinarian – and although my career path took me elsewhere, I try to find other ways to contribute to animal welfare and conservation efforts.
LAist is part of Southern California Public Radio, a member-supported public media network.
Copyright 2024 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.
Volume 2 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/frbhe.2023.1236215
This paper investigates how individual decisions are aggregated to team decisions under risk in field experiment with a sample of Ethiopian farmers and the team decision-making process behind this aggregation
In an experiment structurally similar to the Gneezy-Potters' risk game
subjects make decisions first individually and then jointly with a random anonymous partner
teams make higher allocation into the risky asset compared to the average of individual decisions
teams are neither polarizing nor simply averaging individual preferences
team decisions are consistent with an outcome of group bargaining and deliberation process based on intensity of individual preferences
But more risk-taking subjects have a stronger influence on team decisions
This influence of more risk-taking members on the group decision is leveraged by their better education levels
Analysis of the team decision-making process reveals several interesting insights
About 54% of the teams do not reach immediate agreement with initial allocations
Both less risk-taking and more risk-taking team members are equally likely to disagree with initial allocations but for different reasons
Teams that disagreed with initial allocations reached final team decisions significantly different from disagreed initial allocations
Less risk-taking subjects are more willing to concede to allocations proposed by more risk-taking subjects to reach at an agreed team decision
Demanding messages in group communications have a stronger effect on outcomes of group decision-making
teams with greater differences in willingness to take risk among members are more likely to disagree with initial team allocations
take more rounds of deliberations to come to a decision
and make choices further away from the average of individual decisions
Our results permit to better characterize the process of group decision-making beyond differences between individual and group decisions
The current study makes empirical comparisons between these competing preference aggregation mechanisms in teams
This study examines the team decision-making process to gain insights into how groups make decisions and how team decisions evolve when members do not immediately agree with initial allocations
we also examine the role of risk composition within teams in shaping the internal dynamics and outcomes of team decision-making
Our experiment is based on a variant of the risk allocation game of Gneezy and Potters (1997)
which involves allocating a fixed amount of money between risky and riskless options with real payoffs at stake
Subjects had to first make individual decisions and then were randomly paired to make team decisions with the same parameters
individual and team decisions are observed independently but on the same subjects
We use a semi-structured team communication mechanism to facilitate information exchange
encourage participation by all members and focus the team interaction on how to aggregate individual decisions
We call for a unanimous decision rule and teams can go up to 14 rounds of negotiation
disagreements and changes of opinion among team members
This has offered us a rich environment to understand how groups aggregate individual decisions
The Gneezy-Potters design combines simplicity with absence of strategic considerations
providing a relevant framework to analyze group decision-making without imposing significant structural constraints
The main results are summarized as follows
team decisions involve more risk than individual choices
But team choices are neither equally weighted averages of individuals' decisions nor more polarized than individual choices
they are consistent with members bargaining and deliberating over the outcome based on the intensity of their individual preferences
with more risk-taking subjects being more influential in the team decision-making
Both less risk-taking and more risk-taking team members are equally likely to disagree with initial allocations
Teams with greater differences in risk-taking among members are more likely to disagree with initial allocations
take more rounds of deliberation to come to a decision
and make team choices further away from the average of individual preferences
Analysis of the team decision-making process generates several interesting insights
The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows
Section 2 presents the study context and how communities make decisions
Section 3 describes the experimental design and data
while Section 5 provides the discussion and conclusion
Further, community decision-making is deeply embedded in their culture and social characteristics and thus extends beyond normative assumptions of constrained-optimization and risk considerations. Rural communities in Africa possess their own socially and culturally specific ideas about what decision-making power is, who can hold it, and how it can be transferred in the community (Melesse et al., 2018)
decision-making power is closely linked to social status
such status is socially ascribed based on age
we consider differences between team variables to explain outcomes of team decision-making in our experiment and analysis
Another important aspect in community decision-making is the role that social norms play in how disagreements in community decisions and conflicts are settled. In Ethiopia, local elders and religious leaders are the customary judges, especially in rural communities, who ensure that arbitration outcomes are strongly embedded into community dynamics (Cecchi and Melesse, 2016)
Such traditional conflict resolutions focus on restoration and narrowing of differences through deliberations and negotiations
This decision context could lead team discussions to some sort of averaging process of individual decisions
team decisions may reveal taste against group polarization
while this brief description of the dynamics of community decision-making is informative
it is important to note that team members in our experiment remain anonymous to each other
This anonymity may attenuate expectations related to the dynamics of power in community decision-making
positional concerns and gender differences
We elicit individual and team risk preferences using a simple risk game from 532 randomly sampled farmers from 18 kebeles (municipalities) in Amhara region
The experiments were conducted by 20 experimenters in the autumn of 2014 over October and November
A session covered the experiments and short post-experiment survey and lasted for about 1.5 hours
This research was conducted in the purview of the School of Social Sciences through its Social Sciences Ethics Committee at Wageningen University
The tradeoff becomes more favorable for subjects whose allocation to the risky asset (x) is greater than the threshold of the equality of the expected mean and variance equations
experimental choices exhibit the more plausible decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) for almost the entire decision task
DARA applies to subjects who invested an amount greater than the threshold level in the risky asset
given initial endowments allocated to them
The experimental procedure consisted of two parts
Subjects first make choices individually and then a team choice with a random anonymous paired member from their community
Teams were jointly provided with new but the same amount of endowment
The team decision-making proceeds as follows
One of the team members was randomly selected to initiate the team deliberation by making an initial allocation between cash and the risky asset
while the paired member has the option to either accept or decline it and propose a new allocation with an explanation supporting her new allocation for the group decision
through oral messages collected and delivered by experimenters
teams could continue to deliberate until an agreement was reached on the team decision or 14 rounds of deliberations were completed
The experimenter would intervene to end the game by taking the average of all individual allocations if a team failed to reach agreement after 14 rounds
as the maximum number of rounds of deliberation reached by teams was seven
While we avoided face-to-face discussion as it involves many confounds (from uncontrolled interactions) of team decision-making process
we were not able to use an electronic chat due to low levels of literacy among our subject pool
The content of messages was not restricted
except for forbidding abusive language and revealing one's identity in any manner
The fact that subjects remain anonymous minimizes roles of confounding factors related to prior acquaintance or societal status of members
Anonymity attenuates concerns related to repeated play that are invariably present within naturally occurring teams
and avoids the risk of any conflict or retaliation among participants after the experiments
While a within-subject experimental design allows a more direct analysis of aggregation of individual decisions to team decisions, a possible concern is that it might exhibit order effects. However, order effects are more likely to be minimal in tasks where preferences play a major role (Baker et al., 2008; Masclet et al., 2009)
Subjects were informed about the prospect of team decision-making after individual decisions were submitted
Subjects did not receive any feedback about the outcome of individual decisions before the team decision was completed
Strategic considerations are absent in the risk allocation task
and there were no time limits or any other hard constraints on deliberations during the team decision-making
Subjects were randomly assigned a unique identifier
and kept in private locations throughout the experiment
and team communication was carried out in a non-identifiable manner through experimenters
Subjects face identical per capita expected monetary payoff in individual and team decisions
a random payment scheme was applied to control for wealth effects and to induce subjects to reveal true preferences in individual and team treatments
When the individual task was chosen for payment
subjects were paid based on the outcomes of their own individual decisions
subjects were paid the same payoff based on the outcomes of the team decision
subjects earned about 60 Ethiopian Birr ($3.29)
data on subjects' sociodemographic and other background characteristics were collected as part of a survey
The annual average per capita income (from all possible sources) for sampled households is about 3,188 Ethiopian Birr (about $175)
Individual and team summary statistics for the experimental subject pool
Market experience is captured by the average number of transactions of the household in a typical month and the average household conducts about seven transactions per month
The average participant resides in a village which is home to about 113 farm households
the variable shock captures whether a household experienced a major shock (drought
and about 60% of the households experienced at least one form of these shocks in the year prior to the survey
and shock tend to capture community level aspects
while other variables measure individual level characteristics
Column (b) gives the values of the above variables at team level
The male dummy at a team level indicates teams that comprise only men members
The shock dummy at a team level indicates that at least one of the team members experienced a shock
Observations for other variables at team level are differences between individual observations of members within a team
The figure reveals that there are considerable differences in risk-taking in both individual and team treatments
While all individuals and teams chose to invest some positive amount in the risk asset (i.e.
the minimum of the risk index is >0)
only one individual chose to invest her entire endowment in the individual decision
but no team invested its entire endowment in the risky asset
Histogram distributions of willingness to take risk by (A) individuals and (B) teams
What may drive the observed differences in risk-taking among individual subjects? To identify factors that influence individuals' willingness to take risk in the individual portfolio allocation decisions, we run an ordinary least squares (OLS) model of the individual risk-taking measure on several covariates of subjects. We return to a similar analysis for team decisions below. The results are reported in Table A2
Individual risk-taking appears to be correlated with a range of covariates
All significant results are consistent with expectations and the literature
Male subjects are relatively high-risk takers as compared to female subjects
with risk-taking behavior of subjects decreasing significantly with age
perhaps due to low earning power and less time to recover from losses
as age square enters significantly positive
indicating that people would instead become risk lovers when they get too old
Individuals' risk-taking increases with education
Statistical tests comparing risk-taking by groups
the fourth and the fifth tests are comparisons of team decisions with individual decisions of the less risk-taking and the more risk-taking individuals within a team
It is important to note that the characterization of “less risk-taking” and “more risk-taking” individuals is only with reference to a team
to members of the team with “lower” and “higher” willingness to take risk
the comparisons reveal that team choices are significantly different from individual decisions of both less risk-taking and more risk-taking team members
team decisions involve more risk than the average of less risk-taking members
but less risk than the average of more risk-taking members
Almost all covariates are not significantly different
further confirming the success of the randomization
the analysis is focused on how teams aggregate individual decisions and the relative influence of team members on outcomes of team decisions
Focusing on the relationship between individual and team choices
we emphasize that the team decision is the outcome variable and that individual decisions of team members are the key explanatory variables
let yt denote the team decision for the tth team
and individual decisions of team members are ordered such that xt1 ≥ xt2
subject 1 is the more risk-taking member of the team
Assuming team decisions are a linear function of individual preferences
the regression specification is modeled as:
where Xt is a vector of team members' covariates and characteristics of the team decision process
Differences between variables of team members are considered in the regressions to make β and γ a function of characteristics
The preference aggregation mechanisms can be assessed by observing parameter estimates from Equation (1) and performing some post-estimation tests
First is the averaging process that conjectures the mean of individual preferences predicts the team decision
The weak mean hypothesis states that individuals within a team have an equal influence on the team decision
this implies testing whether β = γ
The strong mean hypothesis which further requires the mean to exactly predict the team decision with equal influence of members and involves testing the hypothesis that β=γ=12
The alternative is that team decision-making is an unstructured bargaining and deliberation process among team members
and team decisions are a function of the intensity of individuals' willingness to take risk and relative influence of members in the decision-making process
While individual decisions reflect the preferred outcome of team members
they may have different weights to drive the team decision closer to their preferred decision
one member may simply have significantly more intense preference for her choice
while the other member's preference may be weaker in the sense that she is willing to change to come to a team agreement
individuals with a greater intensity of preference are more likely to dominate the team decisions
this implies testing whether coefficients of individual decisions sum up to one
β≠γ and β+γ = 1 indicates that the team decision that varies with individual decisions is a convex combination of members' individual decisions
and that coefficients of individual decisions can be interpreted as different weights of members' influence in shaping the team decision
team decisions that are dominated by more risk-taking members would imply β> γ
Table 3 reports results from OLS estimation explaining a team's choice as a function of its members' individual decisions and other covariates
Team communication was facilitated by experimenters
While this approach has a merit of providing a more controlled team decision-making environment to preserve anonymity and attenuate confounding factors
it may not be neutral with respect to its influence on team communications
despite the intensive training to experimenters and piloting for feedback
experimenters might have different levels of effectiveness in conveying messages to subjects
we report standard errors clustered at the experimenter level
We first estimate a more parsimonious specification with only individual risk preferences as regressors (1) and subsequently include other covariates to reach the elaborated specification (2)
the coefficients on more risk-taking and less risk-taking team members are positive and significant
indicating that both team members play important roles in explaining the team decisions
The value of adjusted R2 (model 1) is substantially high
indicating that individual decisions considerably explain the variation in team decisions
The dummy for the more risk-taking sender is not significant (model 2)
implying that assignment to the ‘sender' and ‘receiver' roles in the initial round of the team deliberation did not affect team decisions
Team choices as a function of members' individual decisions and characteristics
The coefficients for more risk-taking and less risk-taking members are significantly different (p < 0.1; F-statistic = 3.01)
we cannot reject the hypothesis that the sum of the coefficients on team members' individual decisions is one
This is consistent with the team decision that varies with individual decisions is a convex combination of members' decisions
and that team decisions are outcomes of negotiation and deliberation process among members
our data support an explanation of team decision-making based on the intensity and relative influence of individual preferences
where team decisions represent an intensity weighted averaging of individual decisions
Post-estimation hypothesis tests based on results of the elaborated model (2)
While the basic results (model 2) remain robust
the results provide additional valuable insights
The interaction between individual risk-taking and education level is significant for more risk-taking group members
supporting that the influence of more risk-taking members on the group decision is leveraged by their better education level
more risk-taking members (mean = 3.641) had significantly more years of schooling than less risk-taking team members (mean = 1.919) (Mann–Whitney U-test; p < 0.01)
there is a higher allocation into the risky asset in groups where the argument that “gain is more than loss” was used to support more allocation into the risky asset in group decisions
This suggests that demanding messages in group communications have a stronger effect on outcomes of group decision-making
the interpretation of these results greatly aligns with the argument that group decisions are outcomes of group bargaining and deliberation process
Second, we reported standard errors clustered at experimenter level in the main econometric specifications. However, as outlined in Section 2, decision-making in communities is deeply embedded in their culture and social characteristics. To account for this concern, we run the main regression and report standard errors clustered at the kebele level (model 4 in Table 3)
the main results remain robust for clustering standard errors at the kebele level
The parameter estimates for the “more risk-taking team member” and “sender is more risk-taking member” are positive and significant
supporting that more risk-taking individuals drive teams to make choices above the individual mean choices of their members
the results suggest that more risk-taking members dominate the team decision-making process
the following specific risk-aversion utility function:
where w is the level of income and σ is measure of risk-aversion
The higher σ means the more risk averse
Given the incentive structure of our experiment
this implies that x(σ)=ln(4)2.5σ
This function is convex for risk-averse households
for any convex combination of preference parameters
the resulting choice of x lies below the convex combination of the two original x values
x(λσ1+(1−λ)σ2) ≤ λx(σ1) + (1−λ)x(σ2)
which is supported by our experimental data
the result that team choices are more risk-taking than the ‘average' of individual choices of team members reverses this definition for any convex combination of preference parameters
we can interpret that team choices tend to be closer to choices of more risk-taking members as evidence that more risk-taking team members are more likely to dominate the team decision-making and its outcome
Another potentially relevant explanation is the rationality argument
It is expected that team discussion permits members to pool their cognitive resources to improve performance in team decisions
While the optimality of any specific decision is less likely to be demonstrable for non-intellective and subjective tasks
it is possible that the expected value of each level of allocation could emerge as the objectively demonstrable criterion for the decision
our experimental design is consistent with the rationality argument
since the expected return associated with a certain level of risk-taking is always higher than its expected loss
risk-taking is valued more positively than conservatism in many communities
and the social setting in teams may generate greater risk-taking as a socially desirable outcome
A large population in a community may reduce trust
and hence weaken community level risk sharing mechanisms by creating risk externalities and moral hazard in mutual insurance
ultimately reducing the willingness of the community to take risk
The shock variable is negatively correlated with team risk-taking
suggesting that teams with members who experienced shock are likely to be more risk averse
We now turn to analyzing the team decision-making process to gain further insights into how teams come to an agreed team decision
A special focus is to understand how groups resolve disagreements and the resulting internal dynamics of team decision-making
This analysis is facilitated by the semi-structured communication strategy that provided a controlled
environment for the decision-making process
teams could only communicate by proposing choices to each other through experimenters
In case of a disagreement on the initial allocation
teams could go on deliberating by sending counter allocations to each other until agreement on a team decision was reached
Several interesting insights emerge from this analysis and are discussed below
Of the 37% teams that acted according to the preferences of one of the team members
about 26% did so equal to the choices of the more risk-taking members
again providing clear evidence on the dominance of these members in the team decision-making
But the remaining 17% of team choices lie outside the range defined by individual choices
with nearly all (16%) going in the direction of the more risk-taking member
These team choices are consistent with group polarization in team decisions
collectively 83% of the team choices fall weakly within the range defined by individual choices of team members
Team choices relative to individual choices and mean of individual choices of team members
Table 5(b) presents distributions of team choices relative to means of individual choices
about 90% of the team decisions are different from the average of individual choices
though the nature and direction of the differences vary
About 67% of team decisions are more risk-taking than the mean of individual decisions
exhibiting a “risky shift.” In contrast
about 23% of the team decisions are more risk averse than the mean of individual decisions
generating a “cautious shift.” Only 10% of the teams have decisions equal to the mean of individual decisions of their members
a Kruskal–Wallis (non-parametric) test shows that team choices across the three mutually exclusive categories are statistically significantly different (χ2(2) = 30.337
the results indicate that about 90% of the team decisions are inconsistent with the simple averaging of individual preferences in team decisions
combined with the absence of strong group polarization in team choices
implies that the data are generally consistent with team decisions being essentially an outcome of team bargaining and deliberation process
with more risk-taking team members driving the team decision-making
both immediately accepted and rejected initial allocations are significantly higher than averages of individual decisions of team members (two sample dependent t-test; p < 0.1 and p < 0.01
for teams accepting and rejecting initial allocations)
But the absolute difference between team decisions and averages of individual decisions is significantly greater for groups that rejected initial allocations (mean = 0.18) than that of groups accepted initial offers (mean = 0.09) (Mann–Whitney U-test; p < 0.05)
Evolution of team decision-making from initial allocations for team decisions
final team decisions reached at with acceptance of initial allocations (mean = 0.34) are significantly less than final decisions of teams that disagreed with initial allocations (mean = 0.44) (Mann–Whitney U-test; p < 0.01)
these results substantiate that team decisions are indeed outcomes of bargaining and deliberation process between members rather than being the result of a simple averaging process or social facilitation in team interactions
Team decision-making when initial allocations disagreed (n = 143)
The argument ‘gain is more than loss' was the most frequent argument in demanding messages to support increasing allocations to the risky asset
‘loss is higher for large allocations' was the most frequent argument in deferring messages to support decreasing allocations to the risky asset
Main arguments in messages of team communications
Certain regularities are observed between decisions of team members and the team decision-making process
more risk-taking and less risk-taking team members are equally likely to disagree with initial allocations
The null hypothesis that more risk-taking and less risk-taking team members are equally likely to disagree with initial allocations cannot be rejected (binomial test; p = 0.50)
The 143 disagreed initial allocations are distributed almost equally: 71 disagreements were made by more risk-taking team members
while 72 of the disagreements were by less risk-taking members
But the direction of the disagreements is remarkably different for more risk-taking and less risk-taking team members
more risk-taking team members made counter allocations to increase allocations to the risky assets
while 64 of the 72 disagreements by less risk-taking team members are in the direction of decreasing team allocations to the risky assets
But the absolute value of the difference between the average of less risk-taking members' decisions and the team decision (mean = 0.210) is significantly greater than the absolute value of the difference between the average of more risk-taking members' decisions and the team decision (mean = 0.111) (Mann–Whitney U-test; p < 0.01)
this confirms that more risk-taking members dominate the team decision-making process
What role does team risk heterogeneity (i.e.
the difference in risk-taking between team members) play in the team decision-making process
We formulate a set of hypotheses based on team risk heterogeneity
arriving at team decisions would be more difficult for teams consisting of members of different risk types
the number of deliberations needed to reach an agreement are likely to increase with the distance between individual risk choices
and partly implied by the first hypothesis
teams with members of different risk types are likely to come to a team decision that strictly reflects a compromise between individual choices due to greater rounds of team bargaining and deliberation
teams that start with a larger difference between individual risk choices are more likely to engage in disagreement
defined as a situation where the initial allocation was disagreed
the difference between team choices and mean of individual choices is likely to be greater for teams consisting of members with greater differences in risk-taking
Table 9 presents results that largely corroborate these predictions
Using a negative binomial model for allocation count
column (1) shows that the difference in risking-taking between team members is positive and significant at 1% significant level
This suggests that teams with different individual risk types require greater rounds of team bargaining and deliberation to reach at team decisions
column (2) indicates that teams with members of different risk types are more likely to make compromised team decisions
about 46% of the teams made compromised team decisions
decisions strictly between individual choices of team members
teams making compromised decisions involve a significantly greater number of bargaining rounds (mean= 2.10) as compared with non-compromised (i.e.
to mean not strictly between individual choices) team decisions (mean = 1.61)
Team risk composition and the team decision-making process
The result shows that the more heterogeneous the team is
the further is the team choice from the mean of individual choices
Given more risk-taking members dominate the team decision-making
this result implies that the leverage of more risk-taking team members to influence the team choice tends to increase as team members' risk heterogeneity increases
The social setting in team interactions may partly play a role in explaining team decisions (Charness et al., 2007)
While it is important to note that our experiments are not particularly designed to test the effect of the social setting on team decisions
several observations lend some tentative support to the potential role played by the social setting in team decisions
senders make initial allocations (mean = 0.37) for team decisions that are significantly greater than their corresponding individual decisions (mean = 0.33) (Mann–Whitney U-test; p < 0.05; n = 266)
This is particularly interesting as team members have remained anonymous in the experiment
attenuating confounding factors that might result from strategic interactions among team members
some receiving team members accepted straightaway initial allocations that are significantly higher than their individual decisions
initial allocations were accepted as team decisions for 46% of the teams
accepted initial allocations (mean = 0.34) for these teams are significantly greater than average individual decisions (mean = 0.28) of accepting members (Mann–Whitney U-test; p < 0.01)
43 team choices fall outside the range defined by individual choices and are thus inconsistent with both simple and intensity weighted averaging and bargaining processes
32 of these team choices are outcomes of accepting initial allocations as team decisions
we analyze how individual decisions are aggregated to team decisions under risk and the relative influence of individuals on team decisions in a lab-in-the-field experiment with Ethiopian farmers as participants
subjects first make portfolio allocation decisions both individually and in groups of two with the same parameters
The study context and setting involve from a non-western industrial society
Another novelty is that team communications facilitated by experimenters
offering a controlled environment to understand how teams resolve disagreements and internal dynamics of team decision-making
team decisions neither are an equally weighted average of individual decisions nor polarize to decisions more extreme than individual choices of members
team decisions are largely an outcome of bargaining and deliberation process based on intensity of individual decisions of members
team choices lie between individual choices of team members
with a tendency to be closer to the choices of more risk-taking members
The influence of more risk-taking members on the group decision is leveraged by their better education levels
as supported by the significance of the interaction between their risk-taking and education levels
A detailed analysis of the team decision-making process reveals important insights
about 54% of the teams do not reach immediate agreement with initial allocations
Both less risk-taking and more risk-taking team members are equally likely to disagree with initial allocations but in different directions
About 94% of the disagreements initiated by more risk-taking team members were to increase allocations to the risky asset
while about 89% by less risk-taking team members were to decrease allocations to the risky asset
teams disagreed with initial allocations settled for final team decisions that were significantly different from the disagreed initial allocations
Less risk-taking subjects are more likely to concede to allocations proposed by more risk-taking members
teams with greater difference in risk-taking among members are more likely to disagree with initial allocations
require greater rounds of team deliberation to reach at team decisions
and make team choices further away from the average of individual decisions
While they are largely explained by individual decisions of team members
team decisions are associated with certain personal and community characteristics
such as shock experience and village population
significantly correlated with team decisions
the social setting of team interactions may have played some role in shaping the group outcome
This suggests that differences in experimental tasks
and methodologies may have played a significant role in driving differences in results
Our data are consistent with high levels of risk aversion amongst poor farmers
our findings suggest that team decision-making may help to reduce poor farmers' excessive risk aversion if implemented in contexts and types of decisions where team decision-making is likely to work effectively
Practical settings to test this hypothesis may involve comparing decisions under risk by individual farmers and their groups
such as producer organizations and farmer marketing cooperatives
The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors
This research was conducted in the purview of the School of Social Sciences at Wageningen University & Research
The study was conducted in accordance with the local legislation and institutional requirements
The participants provided their informed consent to participate in the study
MM solely contributed to conception and design of the study
The author gratefully acknowledges financial support for this study from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) (grant # 453-10-001)
and Yohannes Mulu for constructive comments and suggestions
The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations
Any product that may be evaluated in this article
or claim that may be made by its manufacturer
is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher
The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frbhe.2023.1236215/full#supplementary-material
1. US$1 was approximately equal to 18.213 Ethiopian Birr during the survey period
2. E(x)=12(2x)+12(12x)=1.25x;Var(x)=E(x2)-(E(x))2=0.5625x2
3. One timad is the land area ploughed by a pair of oxen in one day
4. Tropical livestock unit is a common unit used to quantify a range of livestock species to a single value
We used the tropical livestock unit applicable for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
5. Six female subjects were senders of an initial allocation
while 10 female subjects played a receiver role in the initial round of team decision-making
6. Risk-taking by teams is a continuous variable but censored at zero from below and at one from above
there was no actual censoring at these values
and results were qualitatively similar to the OLS estimations
7. Tests are done assuming a linear structural model of aggregation of individual decisions to team decisions
we run model (2) by including non-linear (square) and interaction terms of individual preferences
and reported results remain qualitatively unaffected
8. Charness et al. (2013) provide a review and discussion of common risk games in the literature
9. There were 22 teams with members having equal individual decisions
11 teams made decisions that are equal to individual decisions; 10 teams made decisions greater than individual decisions; and the decision for one team was lower than individual decisions of members
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Risk-taking in social settings: Group and peer effects
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Van Knippenberg
Who takes the lead in risky decision-making
Effects of group members' risk preferences and prototypicality
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Diffusion of responsibility and level of risk-taking in groups
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Citation: Melesse MB (2023) From individual decisions to team decisions under risk: evidence from a field experiment
Received: 07 June 2023; Accepted: 16 October 2023; Published: 20 November 2023
Copyright © 2023 Melesse. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)
distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted
provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited
in accordance with accepted academic practice
distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms
*Correspondence: Mequanint B. Melesse, bWVxdWFuaW50Lm1lbGVzc2VAaWNyaXNhdC5vcmc=
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Written by: Rodney Hinds
Ambassador Teferi begins his post at a time of great opportunity for Ethio-UK relations
HIS EXCELLENCY Teferi Melesse Desta has assumed his post as successor to the previous Ethiopian Ambassador to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
The ambassador and his family were afforded a warm welcome by Foreign
Commonwealth and Development Office officials and diplomatic staff following their arrival into the UK recently
Ambassador Teferi begins his post in the UK at a time of great opportunity for Ethio-UK relations and has made it his mission to strengthen these engagements further as the UK moves into a future outside of the European Union
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic has further highlighted the importance of international partnerships
His priorities will be focused on Ethio-UK cooperation in response to the coronavirus crisis
on coordination for regional peace and security
tourism and investment and on climate change ahead of the COP26 UN Climate conference in Glasgow in November 2021
Ambassador Teferi joined the Diplomatic Corps in 1993 and has held numerous positions in Addis Ababa and abroad
most recently as Consul General at the Consulate-General of Ethiopia in Guangzhou
he served as Director General for Public Diplomacy and Communications
Chief Advisor to the Minister on Capacity Building
and Director in the Ethiopian Expatriate Affairs Directorate-General at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Addis Ababa
Ambassador Teferi’s other roles abroad included Consul General at the Consulate-General of Ethiopia in Geneva
Switzerland; Chargé d’affaires at the Ethiopian Embassy in Harare
Zimbabwe as well as Minister Counsellor at the Ethiopian Embassy in Brussels
The new ambassador Teferi said: “I am delighted to be the new Ethiopian Ambassador to the United Kingdom
one of Ethiopia’s most important partners and friends
“We have a long history of cooperation internationally and have consistently collaborated on issues including international peace and security
climate change and sustainable development
“The ongoing coronavirus pandemic has further highlighted the importance of international partnerships and I hope to find further opportunities where Ethiopia and the UK can work together as we continue developing our strategic and warm relations in the years ahead.”
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ENTWURF: Design & Build
By Angela Nicoletti
Assefa Melesse’s life began near the River of Life
Melesse wanted the conference to highlight the importance of research
because future decisions and solutions surrounding the dam will require scientific data
“This isn’t only going to be a Nile issue,” Melesse said
“With climate change and population pressure
it’s going to be a problem in other parts of the world
How can we share limited water resources to meet the growing demand and a declining freshwater supply
but they must be based on proven science.”
But he’s never truly left the Nile behind
he’s studied water — both the surface water we can see
which allows him to look toward the future to find ways to safeguard precious water resources
Different models can test different scenarios
revealing how a variety of factors — ranging from deforestation to drought and climate change — could potentially impact freshwater resources
These projections give a glimpse into how current trends
the outcomes of the models aim to inform better water management strategies
Melesse’s research has received funding from NASA
Department of Agriculture and the National Science Foundation
and has taken him all around the world — from Jamaica
the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico to Kenya
he returned to Ethiopia to study the understudied upper Nile
contributing more than 80 percent of the river’s water
the Blue Nile flows into Sudan and Egypt — two countries that have historically relied the most on the water
To better understand how the Blue Nile functions
Melesse gathered critically important data on the hydrology of the upper river basin
and then presented to government officials from other basin countries
Melesse also proposed and developed graduate programs focused on water issues at several Ethiopian institutions
Twice a year Melesse travels to Ethiopia to teach courses
He’s currently working with nine Ph.D
students at four different Ethiopian institutions
Some of his students presented their research at the conference earlier this month
The Nile has had a consistent presence in Melesse’s life and his life’s work
the question of how to share the water of the Nile between millions of people is one part of a bigger
more complicated global issue — one he’s not yet done exploring
Angelica Moncada is becoming a leader in her field and raising awareness about the importance of diversity in the sciences
His death was confirmed by his family on April 9
known for his soulful voice and impactful songs such as “Menew Kerefede,” “Yeregeme Lebe,” and “Nanu Nanu Ney,” left a lasting mark on the Ethiopian music scene
Muluken moved to Addis Ababa at the age of six
“Hedetch Alu,” a collaboration with notable musicians including pianist Girma Bèyènè and saxophonist Tesfa Mariam Kidane
Muluken’s career continued to flourish with hits like “Wetetie Mare” and “Ete Endenesh Gedawo,” recorded with the Equator Band
Despite the band’s subsequent move to the United States
Muluken chose to remain in Ethiopia and in the 1980s
transitioned from his music career to devote himself to the Pentecostal Church
while Muluken became known for his singing
he was notably absent from recordings by the official state television
setting him apart from many contemporaries
His spiritual conversion marked a significant shift in his life
aligning himself with the Ethiopian Evangelical movement and becoming a born-again Christian
Muluken’s refusal to return to secular music remained consistent until his later years
using them as opportunities to correct misconceptions and affirm his religious commitments
impacting many through his faith and music
working closely with songwriters to reflect his unique style
Muluken Melesse’s death marks the end of an era for Ethiopian music
but his contributions will continue to influence and inspire
remained dedicated to affecting positive change in every community he touched
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Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computation
Volume 9 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fams.2023.1260651
This article is part of the Research TopicSingularly Perturbed Problems: Asymptotic Analysis and Numerical SolutionsView all 6 articles
This study deals with a fitted third-degree B-spline collocation method for two parametric singularly perturbed parabolic problems with a time lag
The proposed method comprises the Cranck-Nicolson method for time discretization and the third-degree B-spline method spatial variable discretization
Rigorous numerical experimentations were carried out on some test examples
The obtained numerical results depict that the proposed scheme is more accurate than some methods existing in the literature
Parameter convergence analysis of the scheme is carried out and shows the present scheme is (ε−μ)−uniform convergent with the order of convergence ((Δt)2 + ℓ2)
We consider the following two-parametric singularly perturbed parabolic problem with the time lag of the form:
and its corresponding analysis are preserved in the subsequent sections
When τ < ε, the use of Taylor's series expansion for the term containing shift argument is valid [12]
On applying Taylor's series expansion on u(s
Now taking Equation (2) into Equation (1)
u|∂Ω ≥ 0 and Lε,γu|Ω≤0
Assume that the arbitrary function u attains its minimum value at the point (s*,t*)∈Ω̄ such that u(s*,t*)=min(s,t)∈Ω̄u(s,t) and suppose that u(s*
∂u∂t(s*,t*)=0 and ∂2u∂s2(s*,t*)≥0
which is illogicality to the supposition that Lε,μu|Ω≤0
It follows that u|Ω¯≥0
Lemma 2. (Uniform stability estimate) Let u(s, t) be the solution of Equation (3)
where ‖.‖Ω¯ is used to denote maximum norm given by ‖u‖Ω¯=max(s,t)∈Ω¯|u(s,t)|
Let Θ± be the barrier functions given as
Then at the initial and boundary conditions
Applying the differential operator in (3) on Θ±(s
t) ≥ β > 0 we have η(s
and the fact ‖f‖ ≥ f(s
t) implies that Lε,μΘ±(s,t)≤0
Lemma (1) confirms Θ±(s,t)≥0,∀(s,t)∈Ω̄
The above Lemma (1) and Lemma (2) are guarantees for the existence and uniqueness solution of Equation (3)
We describe the uniform mesh for the domain Ωt as
Applying the Crank-Nicholson method on t−direction of Equation (3) yields
p(s,tj+1)=η(s,tj+1)+2dτ(s,tj+1)Δt and Q(s,tj)=η(s,tj)+2dτ(s,tj)Δt
The local truncation error (LTE) of the temporal semi-discretization of Equation (6) is defined as ej+1 = u(s
tj+1) is the solution of the following BVP
we state the bounds for the errors in the local and global as follows
the LTE of Equation (6) is given by
the global error estimate (GEE)at tj is given by
where C(C > 0) is constant independent of ε
To approximate Equation (6), we employ the third-degree B-spline collocation method. We divide the space domain Ω¯s as Ω¯s={0=s0<s1<⋯<sN=1} with si = iℓ, where ℓ = 1/N. The third-degree B-Spline (Bi(s)) can be defined as [13]
In the third-degree B-spline collocation method
where αi(t)'s are time-dependent parameters to be determined from the collocation method together with using the boundary and initial conditions. The values of Bi(s) and its derivatives are presented in Table 1
Coefficients of third-degree B-splines and their derivatives at knots
From Equation (10) and Table 1
At s = si undertaking the notation U(si, tj+1) = Û(si) Equation (6) and introducing a fitting factor σ(si) in the resulting equation to handle the influence of perturbation parameter on solution profile
In the corresponding time level, plugging Equation (11) at the knots into Equation (12) and simplifying
The fitting factor σi is given as [15, 16]
At each (j + 1)th time level, this gives (N + 1) equations with (N + 3) unknowns [α-1j+1,α0j+1,α1j+1,⋯,αN+1j+1]. Using boundary conditions in Equation (11) and the first and last equation, of Equation (13)
which is a diagonally dominant and non-singular matrix. Consequently, we get a exclusively solvable system of equations. So, we can solve the system in the study mentioned in the reference [15] for α′s, substituting these values into Equation (10)
and we obtain the required approximate solution
Lemma 5. [15] The B-Splines B−1
Lemma 6. Let S(s) be the collocation approximation from the space of third-degree splines ξ3(Ω¯s) to the solution Û(s) of Equation (15) at the (j + 1)th time step
the parameter uniform error estimate is given by:
where C is a positive constant independent of ε
Proof. Let R(s) be the unique spline interpolate from ξ3(Ω¯N) to the solution Û(si) of the Equation (12) given by
If g(s)∈C2(Ω^s), Û(si)∈C4(Ω¯s), and adopting the Hall error estimates [17] for this case
and c2 are the constants independent of ℓ and N
from the estimates of the above equations and the collocating conditions Lε,γN,MS(si)=Lε,γMÛ(si)=g(si)
Since ε ≪ 1 and as ℓ → 0
From the power series expansion of hyperbolic cotangent function, we have scoths≈1+s23-s445 and then |scoths − 1| ≤ Cs2. This and Equation (14) indicate
Substituting Equation (19) in Equation (18)
Using relationship in Equation (15)
Lε,γN,M(Û(si)-R(si)) yields
where α=αij+1, α¯=α¯ij+1
It is observed that the coefficient matrix A is diagonally dominant as they gratify the subsequent relations::
The above diagonal dominant property for smaller values of ℓ [18] gives
Now to estimate |α-1-α^-1| and |αN+1-α^N+1|
The above inequality allows us to estimate: ‖S(s)−R(s)‖∞
so ‖Û(s)−S(s)‖∞
Thus, substituting Equation (24) and Lemma 5 in (25)
Using first term of Equation (17) and Equation (26) into Equation (27)
tj) be the solution of the problem (3) and the collocation approximation from the space ξ3(Ωs) to the solution u(si
If g(s,tj)∈C2(Ω¯s)
Some numerical experiments have been presented using the following examples
Example 1. Consider the following problem of the form (1) [5, 6]
Example 2. Consider the following problem of the form (1) [5, 6]
Since the exact solution for Examples (1) and (2) is not exist, we use the double mesh principle to compute the maximum absolute errors, for each ε and μ, using the following formula [15, 19]:
where UN,M(si,tj) is the numerical solution with (N
and U2N,2M(si,tj) is the numerical solution at the finer mesh with (2N
γ)-uniform absolute errors are calculated using the following formula:
The numerical rate of convergence and the (ε
γ)-uniform rate of convergence are computed by using the following formulas
This figure shows that the scheme is stable and (ε
Table 2. Comparison of Eε,γN,M and ρε,γN,M for fixed γ = 10−4 and varying ε for Example (1) with the study mentioned in the reference [6] using Shishkin (S-) mesh and Bakhvalov-Shishkin (BS-) mesh
Table 3. Comparison of Eε,γN,M, EN,M, and ρN,M for ϵ = 10−4 and varying γ for Example (1) with the study mentioned in the reference [6] using S- mesh and BS- mesh
Table 4. Comparison of Eε,γN,M and ρε,γN,M for γ = 10−3 and varying ε for Example (2) with the results mentioned in the reference [5]
for ϵ = 10−4 and varying γ for Example (2)
3-D view numerical solution profile for Example 1 at N = 512 = M
3-D view numerical solution profile for Example 2 at N = 512 = M
Loglog plot of the maximum point-wise errors for Examples 1 and 2 at different values of ε
(A) Example 1 with γ = 10−4
(B) Example 2 with γ = 10−3
second order numerical method for the two-parametric singularly perturbed time delay parabolic problem on a uniform mesh is presented
The problem is discretized by the Crank-Nicolson method in time and the third-degree B-spline method in space variable
The presented scheme is proven to be an (ε
γ)−uniformly convergent accuracy of order O((Δt)2 + ℓ2)
The computed results are in agreement with the theoretical investigations
the numerical results show that the presented scheme gives better results than available schemes in the literature
The author(s) declare that no financial support was received for the research
The authors would like to thank the editor and referees for careful reading and giving prolific comments
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest
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Keywords: third degree B-spline collocation method
Melesse WG and Kebede GD (2024) Third-degree B-spline collocation method for singularly perturbed time delay parabolic problem with two parameters
Received: 18 July 2023; Accepted: 13 December 2023; Published: 08 January 2024
Copyright © 2024 Daba, Melesse and Kebede. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)
*Correspondence: Imiru Takele Daba, aW1pcnV0YWtlbGVAZ21haWwuY29t
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Volume 4 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fanim.2023.1194974
This study assessed the price-quality relationships for the major feed products in Ethiopia with a view to informing policy makers on possible avenues to develop the livestock feed sector in the country
A survey of livestock feed markets was conducted from April to May 2019 in five regions (Amhara
Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR)
A total of 1700 feed samples with their respective price information were collected from 202 marketplaces
The collected samples were analyzed for their crude protein (CP)
in vitro organic matter digestibility (IVOMD) and metabolisable energy (ME) content
Results showed considerable variability in quality within the same feed type
Pearson correlation and regression analyses showed that price-quality relationships for the feed samples were either very weak or non-existent
Wheat bran showed a weak price to quality correlation for CP (r= 0.200 at P<0.01)
ME (r= 0.202 at P<0.01) and IVOMD (r= 0.221 at P<0.01)
grass hay showed slight positive price to ME correlation (r= 0.382 at P<0.001) and a slight negative relationship with ADF (r=-0.336 at p<0.005)
The results of this study indicated that quality attributes have no
or a limited role in setting market prices for most feed types in the Ethiopian feed market
The fact that both good and poor-quality feeds are sold under the same label and market value affects both traders and livestock producers
it is important to build national feed analytical capabilities to allow quality of feeds to be checked against national feed standards
The objective of this study was therefore to assess variations in quality within and among feed products and determine
price-quality relationships for the major feed products across the country with a view to informing policy makers on possible avenues to improve the livestock feed sector in Ethiopia
The study was conducted in five regions of Ethiopia (Amhara
These are the regions of Ethiopia which are either urban or where mixed crop-livestock farms dominate and where feed transactions are common
In each region, representative urban and peri-urban feed marketplaces, feed processing sites, and livestock enterprises were identified along main road networks connecting towns and cities as shown in Figure 1
District level experts from the District Offices of Agriculture were used as key
Figure 1 Location map of the study sites
informants to identify active feed market actors for the study. Accordingly, a total of 32 rural woredas (districts) in the four regions along with six woredas in Addis Ababa were included in the sample (Figure 1)
A range of market outlets were included in the study
These were mainly comprised of non-commercialized feed processors or ration formulators
commercial feed processors and agribusiness retailers
six feed sellers were randomly selected based on their proximity to main roads
We bought one kilogram of sample from each feed type in the feed markets
A total of one thousand seven hundred samples were collected with each clearly labelled with their respective price
The feed types included roughages (grass hay
wheat grain) and formulated feeds (poultry ration and dairy ration)
care was taken to take a representative sample of each feed ingredient
A small portion of each feed type was picked from different sides
homogenised and representative samples of approximately 1kg each were collected in paper bags and labelled with the necessary tracing information including feed type
Sample preparation and analysis were carried out at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) animal nutrition laboratory
The samples were oven dried at 60°C for 48 hours and ground through a 1 mm sieve using a Christy mill
Samples were then scanned by Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy using a FOSS 5000
with the Win ISI software package and specific calibration equations
Five hundred and fifty feed samples were analysed using standard laboratory methods (“wet chemistry”) for the purpose of developing calibrations using NIRS for prediction of the nutritive values of a further 1200 feed samples
The NIRS instrument used was a FOSS 5000 Feed Analyser with software package WinISI 4.6.2
A total of 1700 samples were scanned with NIRS to determine their dry matter (DM)
crude protein (CP) estimated from nitrogen content (N x 6.25)
in vitro organic matter digestibility (IVOMD) and metabolisable energy (ME) concentrations
Descriptive statistics were used to present the mean chemical composition of the feed samples collected
The data were summarised as mean ± standard error (SE)
The prices of the feed samples were then related with the laboratory analysis results
Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression were conducted to explore the relationships between price and feed quality variables using SAS software (Version 9.0)
The feed market analysis result showed that the main feed types traded in the selected markets in Ethiopia were agro-industrial by-products followed by crop residues and grass hay. In terms of frequency of products on sale, wheat bran contributed about 22.7%, oil seed cakes 16.4%, crop residue 15.2% and grass hay 10.2% (Figure 2)
wheat bran and oil seed cakes also contribute as main components of compound feeds formulated and marketed by feed processing companies
Figure 2 Frequency of available feed types in selected local feed markets
brewery by-products contained the highest mean CP concentration (23.9 ± 0.93)
while wheat bran showed the highest mean value of IVOMD (70.8 ± 0.24) on a DM basis
Oil seed cakes also showed considerable variation in their nutritive value within the same feed type
the mean CP concentration of noug seed cake was 34.2%
soybean cake contained the highest CP% (45.7 ± 0.93) and IVOMD% (82.9 ± 1.04)
Table 1 Chemical composition of selected roughages (mean ± SE) collected in selected market places in Ethiopia
Table 2 Chemical composition of selected formulated concentrate feeds (% mean ± SE) collected from marketplaces in Ethiopia
Table 3 Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between quality and price (Birr/kg) for selected concentrate feed ingredients collected from selected marketplaces in Ethiopia
Table 4 Nutritive value of selected concentrate feeds (mean ± SE) collected in selected market places in Ethiopia
The average chemical composition of the selected roughages collected from marketplaces are shown in Table 1
The mean CP% of wheat straw was 3.1% ± 0.10 with a range of 1.5% - 5.7%
The mean IVOMD of wheat straw was 39.3% ± 0.23
Grass hay showed higher mean CP% compared to wheat straw (5.9% ± 0.52)
but there was large variation in CP content with some samples having as low as 1% CP and others as high as 13%
green grass samples showed a large variation in CP content (4% to 25%)
Table 2 presents the composition of formulated rations found in the local market
formulated rations showed a large variation in nutrient concentration
crude protein (CP) concentration of the dairy ration ranged from 6% to 28% with a mean of 18.6 ± 0.46
The in vitro organic matter digestibility (IVOMD) of the same product ranged from 45% to 69% with a mean of 62.8 ± 0.55
The mean metabolisable energy value was 8.8 MJ/kg± 0.08 with a range of 6 to 10 MJ/kg DM
where significant relationships were observed between price and some of the quality variables
the ME of noug seed cake was positively related with price (P<0.01)
while the fibre concentrations (NDF and ADF) were negatively correlated (P<0.001)
IVOMD and ME values of wheat bran were positively related (P<0.01) with price
Figure 3 Relationship between price and percent crude protein content for selected cereal by- product feeds ingredients collected in selected marketplaces in Ethiopia
Figure 4 Relationship between price and in vitro organic matter digestibility (IVOMD) for selected cereal by-product feed collected in selected marketplaces in Ethiopia
Figure 5 Relationship between price and percent crude protein content for selected oilseed cakes collected in selected marketplaces in Ethiopia
Figure 6 Relationship between price and in vitro Organic Matter Digestibility (IVOMD) for selected oilseed cakes collected in selected marketplaces in Ethiopia
Among the roughages considered in this study, significant relationships (P<0.05) between price and quality were observed only for grass hay (Table 5; Figures 7, 8)
Table 5 The Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between quality and price (Birr/kg) for selected roughages collected from marketplaces
Figure 7 Relationship between price and crude protein content of selected roughages collected in selected market places in Ethiopia
Figure 8 Relation between price and in vitro organic matter digestibility (IVOMD) for selected roughages collected in selected marketplaces in Ethiopia
The price of compound feeds generally seems to be unrelated with quality attributes, except for the ADF content of dairy rations which was negatively related with price (P<0.05) (Table 6)
Table 6 Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between nutritive value and price (Birr/kg) for selected formulated concentrate feeds collected in selected marketplaces in Ethiopia
Peri-urban and urban livestock keepers mainly depend on purchased feeds and the presence of a well-functioning feed market is very important for a profitable livestock enterprise
The study was conducted over a relatively short time scale of two months (April and May)
Feed prices do vary seasonally as does feed quality but the collection of data over a relatively short time scale ensured a reliable snapshot of data and comparability across geographical locations
A typical example is the price of milk in the capital
which has increased by a factor of 2.3 in the last two years and is currently sold at 1.95 USD per litre
This highlights the necessity to establish a well-developed feed market that enables livestock producers to access affordable feed of known quality to manage production costs and improve access to and affordability of animal source foods in Low and Middle-income Countries
depending on the processing machine and procedures applied
wheat processing into flour could result in either wheat bran
or wheat bran and wheat middling (a finer product with higher energy concentration)
this cereal by-product was mostly traded in the local feed market simply as wheat bran
it was noted that wheat bran was prone to adulteration
All these factors may explain the observed variation in quality of this by- product (CP: 6 – 23%; IVOMD: 44 – 75%)
Regarding oilseed cake by-products, the efficiency of the oil extraction (solvent or hydraulic methods) and presence or absence of pre-processing treatments (such as decortication or dehulling) affect the protein content of the product (Shukla et al., 1992)
Solvent extraction generally provides a higher efficiency of oil extraction
resulting in high protein content in the by- product
and this technique is limited to large scale oil processing plants
while the hydraulic extraction method is applied in several small oilseed processing mills in Ethiopia
are susceptible to quality deterioration during storage and marketing unless the necessary precautions are applied
The large variations in quality of the oilseed cakes (e.g
CP: 15 – 46%; IVOMD: 43 – 68%) in the present assessment appear to be due to a combination of such factors
grass hay and other roughages are subject to high quality variations depending on the stage of harvest and drying method
Cultivar dependent variations in the fodder quality of cereal straws and pulse haulms are also well documented
Livestock producers in Ethiopia often do not have the access to adequate feed during seasons of scarcity
This would be the likely driver for livestock producers to focus on quantity rather than quality of feeds purchased
resulting in the lack of strong relationships between price and quality
This indicates that quality attributes have a limited role in setting market prices
and that prices are dictated by other market variables such as availability/supply and proximity to markets
The fact that both good and poor-quality feeds are sold under the same name and market value
affects both the trader and the end user (livestock producers)
it does not encourage feed producers or formulators to strive to supply good quality feed ingredients and/or rations as there would be no price incentive for this action
livestock producers who buy and use these feed resources could end up buying poor quality feeds with a high price that increases input costs but results in undernutrition and sub-optimal livestock production
in the longer term it is important to build capacity in terms of creating awareness among feed market actors about existing quality variations and their implications for animal performance and profitability of livestock enterprises
it is important to build national feed analytical capabilities
develop context specific quality standards for different feed types
and strengthen institutional market regulation mechanisms
A range of feed types including agro-industrial by-products
crop residues and compound feeds dominate the feed market in Ethiopia
The inherent feed market characteristics in the local market indicate that
most feed ingredients are not graded and priced according to their quality
and that price-quality relationships are either very weak or non-existent
Quality-based pricing of feed ingredients and products is imperative both for the traders and customers (buyers)
Traders could ask for a premium price for a good quality product
whereas customers would save money as they would pay for a product of known quality to support improved livestock production
a series of capacity building measures are needed along the feed value chain
feed quality laboratories with rapid and affordable analytical techniques such as NIRS is essential to enable feed buyers to pay for the quality they choose
Ethical review and approval was not required for the study on human participants in accordance with the local legislation and institutional requirements
Written informed consent for participation was not required for this study in accordance with the national legislation and the institutional requirements
AM led the work and developed the first draft of the paper
MBez supported drafting and structuring of the paper
CJ contributed to writing and conceptualization
All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version
This work was financed by the USAID Feed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Small Scale Irrigation (ILSSI) and the CGIAR Initiative on Sustainable Animal Productivity which is supported by contributors to the CGIAR Trust Fund.; support from the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR)/Agricultural Growth Project II (AGPII) is also gratefully acknowledged
Latter stages of this work were funded by by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Bureau for Food Security under Agreement # AID-OAA-L-15-00003 as part of Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems
Funding was also provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Equip - Strengthening Smallholder Livestock Systems for the Future (grant number OPP11755487) project
or recommendations expressed here are those of the authors alone
The support of district bureau of agriculture livestock production experts
and researchers from EIAR and regions is highly appreciated
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Keywords: specialty section: animal nutrition Ethiopia
Alemu T and Duncan AJ (2023) Price-quality relationships for the main livestock feed types in the Ethiopian feed market
Received: 27 March 2023; Accepted: 14 June 2023;Published: 19 July 2023
Copyright © 2023 Melesse, Bezabih, Adie, Asmare, Prasad, Devulapalli, Jones, Blummel, Hanson, Alemu and Duncan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)
*Correspondence: Alan J. Duncan, YS5kdW5jYW5AY2dpYXIub3Jn
Muluken Melesse found solace in the gentle sounds of the waterfall from the stereo
transported by the melodies to a breezing stream beside him
Muluken's life embraced music as comfort in his youth
blossoming into fame and pinnacling in a spiritual awakening
was a man of faith who regularly took Muluken to a church
At the outset of her amazing music career, Netsanet Melesse released her debut album “Yelal Doju†in 1983, which became an instant hit throughout Ethiopia. Her simple and alluring look on her single video, seen on the black and white screens of everyone’s living room TV made the album even more popular. No one ever doubted the singer’s talent from then on, as it was not even eclipsed by her shy personality.
Netsanet Melesse’s musical gifts became apparent at an early age as she started singing English songs that were popular at the time. The singer grew up in a very religious family and was even a part of a church choir as a child and also sang at charity events at times. Inspired by Western music moguls like Whitney Houston, Madonna and Aretha Franklin, Netsanet’s talents started becoming evident in the gospel songs she used to sing at Estifanos Church.
Two years after her debut album hit the Ethiopian market
Netsanet’s sophomore set “Minew Jal†was released capturing music fanatics with its originality and mellow rhythm
her third music album followed in 1987 after she did a music collection set
came out featuring a number of prominent Ethiopian musicians in 1991
Netsanet and her family decided a move was in order
she has been residing in Toronto with her 10 year old son
Netsanet delighted her fans with her album “Fertuna†which was highly praised for its genuine lyrics and tunes
the singer made a comeback once again with a beautiful track titled “Bye Byeâ€Â
The singer surprised her fans showing of her newly slimmed down body in the music video
It’s been a long and tangled road for Netsanet’s stunning and intriguing new album “Libenâ€Â
as it was challenging for her to find melodies she can relate to
But over the course of three years the album has been in the making
through business struggles and life changes
she has maintained a clear sense of her musical vision-and returned with a collection of songs that reconfirms her place as one of the finest singers of her generation
her new album boasts a collection of beautiful tracks featuring upcoming artists
“Keremelaye†sees Netsanet performing with an aspiring musician by the name Tokichaw
But in the midst of all the fame and glamour
the singer still makes time to keep in touch with her spiritual side as she has recently released a gospel album
The singer has recently signed up with Adika Communication and Events
a company that manages and promotes Ethiopian artists
With a calm and mellow voice that speaks of dazzling romance and emotions
soon to be dropped in the Ethiopian market via Adika Communication and Events
project her ever great flair as an Ethiopian musician
From all the twists and turns of becoming a musician
Netsanet says she has grown to be an even more experienced singer with intense talents.