Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker Meanwhile, Turkey has joined some Middle Eastern nations - including Qatar Saudi Arabia and Egypt - in accusing Israel of exploiting the downfall of Assad The Israeli military has acknowledged its troops are operating in Syrian territory beyond the demilitarised buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights Earlier, the main Islamist rebel leader in Syria said senior officials of the Assad regime who were involved in torturing political prisoners would be named And in the capital Damascus, rebel fighters reportedly say they've found more than 40 bodies in a hospital morgue showing signs of torture Edited by Adam Durbin and Johanna Chisholm We're going to be pausing our live coverage for the day here's a recap of the third day since the end of Bashar al-Assad's rule in Syria you can also continue reading about the latest developments in Syria with these stories: Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWatch: The divide in Syria is epitomised at its border with Lebanonpublished at 20:51 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202420:51 GMT 10 December 2024Image source People walk with belongings as they attempt to cross into Syria from Lebanon The BBC's chief international correspondent Lyse Doucet has joined the wider BBC team in Damascus In a conversation with Barbara Plett-Usher this afternoon she reflected on the divide across Syrian society which has been epitomised at the country's border with Lebanon She explains that many people could be seen filing into the country but there was also a long stream of people rushing out who say they no longer feel safe Those fleeing across the border into Lebanon also tell Lyse they fear persecution under Syria's new leadership given their previous allegiance to the Assad regime: The BBC's Lyse Doucet reflects on the cross-roads at the Syrian border Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingBBC Verify examines Israel's activity in Syriapublished at 20:35 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202420:35 GMT 10 December 2024BBC Verify has taken a close look at what footage online can tell us about Israel's ongoing operations in Syria Watch Merlyn Thomas talk you through what it indicated below: Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWhat is the opposition's 'independence' flag?published at 20:21 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202420:21 GMT 10 December 2024Image source Syrians holding 'revolution flag' gather at Umayyad Square in Damascus to celebrate the collapse of 61 years of Ba'ath Party rule The Syrian football team has also recently updated its logo and changed the colour of the team's kit from red to green The flag used by the rebels is not entirely new and is a modified version of the independence flag first used when Syria gained independence from France the three red stars at the centre of the flag represent the three main districts of Syria: Aleppo The Assad regime's official flag - which was red and black with two green stars in the centre - had been used since 1980 Red represented the blood shed in the Syrian revolution and black symbolised the oppression of Arabs Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharing'The fear is now gone': Life in Damascus returns to normalpublished at 20:10 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202420:10 GMT 10 December 2024BBC Arabic correspondent Sally Nabil has been speaking to people in Damascus today as the streets of the Syrian capital begin to return to normal She speaks to those who have travelled to the city to search for their loved ones disappeared by the Assad regime as well as residents of the city who feel a chance to be free for the first time Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingSyrian asylum seeker left 'depressed' and 'frustrated' over asylum decision pausepublished at 19:56 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202419:56 GMT 10 December 2024Neha GohilLive reporter A Syrian asylum seeker living in the West Midlands has told the BBC the decision by the UK government to pause decisions on Syrian asylum applications left him and his family “anxious” and his wife in tears fled the Assad regime in 2013 and applied for asylum in the UK in late 2023 He has been waiting more than a year for an outcome to his asylum application making it difficult for him to secure work He is one of the more than 5,000 Syrians were seeking asylum in the UK in the year ending 2024, according to government figures., external “I was really happy for the fall of the Assad regime the next day we received this news and to be honest He says he wants the UK government to continue making asylum decisions until they can make a better assessment of the safety of Syria for asylum seekers we cannot say in one day that we need to reassess The reassessment can happen after six months they're affecting thousands of people who are already struggling [Syrian asylum seekers] cannot go back yet because it’s not yet safe they will be nowhere for an unknown period of time.” Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingIDF says it struck most of Syria's strategic weapons stockpilespublished at 19:37 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202419:37 GMT 10 December 2024The Israeli military says it has destroyed "most of the strategic weapons stockpiles in Syria" over the past 48 hours through the use of hundreds of strikes the Israel Defense Forces says that its navy targeted two Syrian navy facilities and sea-to-sea missiles with ranges of 80 to 190km (50 to 118 miles) - destroying 15 ships It added that it carried out 480 air strikes in total Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWashington will judge rebels by their actions - but says they are using the right wordspublished at 19:26 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202419:26 GMT 10 December 2024Some news coming to us from Washington DC where the US State Department has just given an update to the media Spokesman Matthew Miller says Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been on the phone today with a number of his counterparts in the region including the foreign ministries of Jordan He was also asked about freelance journalist Austin Tice who is thought to have been taken captive close to Damascus on 14 August 2012 while he was covering the Syrian civil war "We continue to make clear in our conversations including with entities on the ground in Syria that Austin Tice is a priority," Miller adds Yesterday, President Joe Biden said all indications point to Tice being alive Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharing'The FBI told us he was dead - but they did not have a body'published at 19:05 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202419:05 GMT 10 December 2024Gabriela PomeroyLive reporter Maryam Kamalmaz has renewed hope after seeing reports that people declared dead were still alive I've been talking to Maryam Kamalmaz about the search for her father who disappeared in Damascus in 2017 was on a trip to Syria to see family when he was arrested at a checkpoint Nothing has been seen or heard of him since that day US intelligence officials said they had classified information that he died in prison But his daughter Maryam refuses to give up on the idea that her father may still be alive "The FBI told us he was dead - but they did not have a body or any concrete information," she tells me "We are seeing stories of people who were declared dead and given death certificates and then they actually turned out to be alive." "It renews our hope to find him alive then at least we want to find his remains and have some sort of closure." Members of the family have been looking for Majd in hospitals and tried to find him at the notorious Saydnaya prison "I keep looking at the pictures and videos of people coming out of the Saydnaya prison," Maryam says "and thinking maybe I will see him there" "But I am trying not to get too hopeful as I don't want to get crushed again." Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingIsraeli PM warns Syrian rebel forces against embracing Iranpublished at 18:49 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202418:49 GMT 10 December 2024Image source ReutersIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned the Syrian rebel forces not to follow in the footsteps of toppled President Bashar al-Assad and allow Iran to "re-establish" itself in the country "If this regime allows Iran to re-establish itself in Syria or permits the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah or if it attacks us - we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price," Netanyahu says in a video posted on X "What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this one." Iran was one of Bashar al-Assad's most important allies and Hezbollah sent hundreds of fighters to join the Syrian civil war and had been key to holding regime territory Netanyahu's statement comes after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed for the first time that its troops were operating beyond the demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWith Syria there are limits to the cards the US has to playpublished at 18:33 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202418:33 GMT 10 December 2024Tom BatemanBBC News US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has in effect laid out a series of conditions which would see Syria enjoy Washington’s full recognition The administration says governance should be credible and transparent ensuring Syria doesn’t become a base for terrorism or threaten its neighbours and that any chemical and biological weapons stocks should be destroyed It also says other countries should refrain from external interference "The Syrian people will decide the future of Syria All nations should pledge to support an inclusive and transparent process and refrain from external interference," the statement reads The Americans are trying to shore up a process towards a future government of Syria they would see as amenable They want to pull it away from the orbit of Iran and Russia and to defuse what Washington would see as any major threat to its key ally in the region But there are limits to the cards the US has to play while some other countries - especially Turkey - have seen their own influence grow over what happens next in Syria Blinken is calling around the region trying to build consensus around the conditions for a future government The US designates Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) but it is almost certainly in indirect contact with the group dangling the prize of future relations with Washington to try to compel it to move in the direction the US wants Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingIn Ghouta the scars of the Assad regime's horrors are still rawpublished at 17:48 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202417:48 GMT 10 December 2024Yogita LimayeReporting from Ghouta destroyed buildings are visible on both sides of the road A rebel stronghold, it was the target of extensive air strikes carried out by Bashar Al Assad’s regime and his allies. And on more than one occasion, the Syrian military used chemical weapons here Tawfiq Diab showed us where a chlorine bomb was dropped outside his home in April 2018 in which his four little children and his wife were killed He says it’s the first time he’s been able to talk freely about what happened to his family otherwise the regime would have cut off my tongue," he says people started choking and couldn’t breathe My wife and children [were] killed by chemical bombs." Tawfiq says the bodies of his family were taken by the regime’s forces and buried in a mass grave by the side of a road not far from his home and today he says was the first time he set foot on it He now wants the grave to be dug up and to give a dignified funeral to his family He also wants the international investigation into the attack re-opened an eyewitness who went to Geneva to testify before the UN told the BBC he was threatened by Bashar Assad’s forces that his family would be imprisoned if he didn’t stick to their version of events With access to parts of Syria that have so far been largely hidden from the world view the full scale of the horrors inflicted by the country’s government on its people is being revealed bit by bit Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingHow world leaders are responding to the fall of Assadpublished at 17:41 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202417:41 GMT 10 December 2024For the last few hours we've been tracking the latest reaction to the toppling of the Assad regime from key countries - let's bring you a summary of those responses: Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingFootage shows damage to two key sites after overnight strikespublished at 17:21 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202417:21 GMT 10 December 2024By Shayan Sardarizadeh There were also reports of strikes on a Scientific Studies and Research Centre The centre has previously been linked to Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapons programme by the UN watchdog the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) We verified several images of the aftermath of the strike by comparing known images of the facility to the pictures circulating on social media They show at least one of the buildings of the research centre completely destroyed with extensive damage also visible to other parts of the site Extensive damage at a research centre north of Damascus after overnight strikes Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingSyrian refugee in UK explains how 'it's not that simple to go back'published at 16:54 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202416:54 GMT 10 December 2024Neha GohilLive reporter I’ve just spoken with Douna Haj Ahmed, a Syrian refugee living in London who fled the Assad regime in 2017, about the decision by some European nations to pause decisions on Syrian asylum applications they can’t overwhelm people with another thing They can't give people another thing to worry about It's not that simple to go back [to Syria],” says Ahmed who would not personally be affected by the pause as she has refugee status in the UK says many Syrians who fled the country would want to return but much of their livelihood has been destroyed in the country’s decade-long civil war I don’t have a job in Syria," she says We are so overwhelmed with joy and sadness.” Ahmed spoke of her joy witnessing the fall of the Assad regime and goes on to explain how she had been brought up in the eastern city of Deir Ezzor living her “whole life” in fear “I’m speaking to you now and I'm not afraid It will take us a while to get rid of the fear I've lived my whole life afraid to share my name,” she says Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharing'We want to see her six children again': Syrians wait to know fate of detainee relativespublished at 16:24 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202416:24 GMT 10 December 2024Gabriela PomeroyLive reporter Dima and Najah were arrested along with their mother and three other siblings and held in a Syrian prison - their family have no information about what happened to them I've been talking to the sister of a Syrian dentist who was arrested along with her six children back in 2013 was arrested at her home in Damascus in March 2013 by Syrian military intelligence officers says family members inside the country have begun looking for them to see if they're among the thousands of prisoners who were released after the fall of the Assad regime on Sunday "They took Rania with her kids and since that day we don't know anything about them," Naila says "We cannot accept that Rania was killed Especially we want to see her six children again." The family have only had one piece of information since the family's disappearance A female inmate who was released told the family in 2013 that she heard the voices of children in the prison "We are seeing people released from prisons and looking at the videos to see if we can see them," Naila says "But the prisons have been opened and we haven't seen Rania yet "We were waiting for this day for 11 years But our wounds are still fresh now as if it happened yesterday." Naila Al-Abassi says her family are actively searching for her sister and children Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingSix key developments from this afternoonpublished at 15:59 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202415:59 GMT 10 December 2024Image source The Israeli military says its navy carried out a “large scale operation” on Monday night which targeted and "destroyed" a Syrian fleet Katz goes on to say: “the navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet with great success.” It adds that the damage was inflicted “by the Navy’s missile ships” Katz says that this mission was part of a wider effort to “damage and destroy” any "strategic capabilities" that threaten Israel It comes as some Arab countries have already warned Israel that its reported operations beyond the demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights is a violation of Syria's sovereignty Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingImage shows Israeli soldier outside buffer zone in Syriapublished at 15:22 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202415:22 GMT 10 December 2024By Benedict Garman We have also located a video of what appears to be a convoy of IDF vehicles moving through Kwdana beyond the buffer zone into Syria BBC Verify are yet to confirm the vehicles belong to the IDF verified video of IDF jeeps at a makeshift base in the buffer zone We have also geolocated a video which appears to show Israeli troops inside the buffer zone In the video you can see about more than a dozen people in fatigues with what appear to be military vehicles nearby An Israeli flag is visible on one of the vehicles The video is from about 500-600m (1,640ft-1,970ft) inside the buffer zone An IDF spokesperson has acknowledged some forces could be “operating in tactical points” on the Syrian side but says their “focus is to maintain the buffer zone” He also denied they were “advancing on Damascus” Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingIDF instructed to create 'sterile defence zone' in southern Syria - defence ministerpublished at 15:05 Greenwich Mean Time 10 December 202415:05 GMT 10 December 2024Image source Israel Katz issued a warning to Syria's new rebel leaders Israel's defence minister is warning that it will not allow "an extremist Islamic terrorist entity" to threaten its borders and citizens Israel Katz's comments come after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) acknowledged earlier for the first time that its troops are operating beyond the demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights. Katz went on to confirm that the Israeli military has been operating in recent days in Syria to "damage and destroy strategic capabilities" that it views as a threat "Whoever follows Assad's path will end up like Assad" in a warning to Syria's new rebel leaders He adds that the IDF has been instructed to create a "sterile defence zone" in southern Syria "without a permanent Israeli presence" Katz says this is to protect the residents of the Golan Heights as well Israeli citizens Images show the fighters standing next to the burning gravesite of Hafez al-Assad in the western Syrian Latakia province Meanwhile shops are reopening and people are returning to work in Damascus as day-to-day life gradually resumes BBC reporters in the city speak to workers who say they're "hoping for better days" as they adapt to life after the fall of the Assad regime Elsewhere Syrian rebel forces say they have taken control of the oil-rich eastern city of Deir al-Zour from Kurdish forces as they try to secure the country's resources It comes as Israel confirmed it carried out attacks on Syria's naval fleet and conducted 350 air strikes as part of its efforts to neutralise military assets in the country with Lina Sinjab and Sally Nabil reporting from Damascus The sun has set on day three of Syria since the downfall Assad regime and we are ending our live coverage for the day Today saw more refugees return to their homeland as interim Prime Minister Mohamed al-Bashir called on Syrians abroad to return home those who are now fearful for what may come next are planning their escape Rebels set ablaze the tomb of Hafez al-Assad father of dictator Bashar al-Assad and his family - a sign of the deep hatred felt by those who suffered under the regime Meanwhile, Israel continued its strikes against the country's military facilities and faced calls to remove its troops from the buffer area Thank you for joining us today. While this page has now closed, this story will be kept up to date with the latest developments. Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingBlinken prepares to head to Middle East to try to influence what comes nextpublished at 18:57 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202418:57 GMT 11 December 2024Tom BatemanState Department correspondent Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingGreece suspends decisions on Syrian asylum applicationspublished at 18:52 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202418:52 GMT 11 December 2024Image source Photo by Costas Baltas/Anadolu via Getty ImagesThe Greek government has suspended all decisions on asylum applications from Syrians following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime migration minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos says the temporary freeze would last until new data had been evaluated Greece is an entry point for many hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees into Europe Earlier this week, the UK government also announced that it would pause decisions on asylum claims from Syrians Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWatch: Rebel fighters burn tomb of Assad's fatherpublished at 18:41 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202418:41 GMT 11 December 2024This video can not be played Syria rebels burn tomb of Bashar al-Assad's father Throughout the day, we've been bringing you updates from Qardhaha in north-western Syria It's the site of the tomb of Bashar al-Assad's father Hafez who ruled the country with an iron fist for 29 years before his death in 2000 Images show a coffin set alight and fire burning in parts of the mausoleum - which is also the resting place of other members of the Assad family Rebel fighters can also be seen brandishing the three-starred flag of independence we've been mapping the progress of rebel fighters as taking control of strategic points in the city overnight following the reported withdrawal of Kurdish-led SDF forces In one video - a montage of six shots - we can place rebels at a major roundabout on the southern edge of the city Celebrating crowds then meet the rebel advance about 300m further into the city The footage is interspersed with images from the entrance to the military airport 10km (six miles) to the south-east key details can be matched from the videos to public satellite imagery: The overhead road sign pointing west to Raqqa and north-east to Iraq before entering the city the distinctive flag parade at the roundabout the monument at a T-junction before the park and the grand airport gate with an eagle crest and a ruined poster of former president Bashar al-Assad The source of the video is al-Askari media, who have close links to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWomen in Syria wonder what future might hold for thempublished at 18:10 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202418:10 GMT 11 December 2024Image source EPAAmid the celebrations over the end of the Assad dynasty there is some lingering anxiety over the place women will hold in the new Syrian era led by rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has attempted to distance itself from its al-Qaeda-linked past and some Syrian women spoke to the BBC World Service about their hopes for the future from Aleppo says "everyone was scared" during Assad's rule - not just women She currently works as an orthodontist and teacher and says that "working as a female now is a concern" due to HTS’ previous associations She adds: “The whole new government holds no women Remy says that she’s “optimistic” that the Syrian people will be able to elect female ministers in the future in Damascus says "nothing could match the cruelty of the Assad regime” where it would have been impossible for women to report harassment to the police observing: “The people who harass you… they are the police.” She says that she and her family cried when they learnt of Assad’s removal from power really happy that Damascus - and Syria - is free after 53 years of oppression,” she says Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingResidents return to rubble in a Damascus neighbourhoodpublished at 17:29 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202417:29 GMT 11 December 2024Lucy WilliamsonBBC Middle East Correspondent The Damascus neighbourhood of Joubar is suddenly a place of reunions returning today for the first time in years were spotting each other with open delight through its powdery ruins This old opposition stronghold on the frontlines of Syria’s civil war sits like a dead tooth in the bustling streets around it More than 90% of the neighbourhood has been destroyed pummelled almost to dust by President Assad’s forces; its rebel fighters long ago pushed out and its residents forced to leave Monawwar al Qahef and her husband Muhammad came back today for the first time in 12 years and the rooftop barbecue the family had loved is now just a pile of concrete rocks around a single arched wall “This is the first time we dared to come back,” Muhammad told me standing in the rubble of his old neighbourhood “I feel as if it’s me that has been broken into pieces.” but there was little softness for the servants of Assad’s regime “Killing them instantly is too easy,” Monawwar said to feel the torment and agony we felt – to wish they were dead.” Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLoss of Hmeimim air base would be a disaster for Russia says expertpublished at 17:08 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202417:08 GMT 11 December 2024Since 2015 Russia has used Hmeimim air base to support President Bashar al-Assad's forces launching bombing raids on opposition forces across the country Russia has also used the base as a hub to transport mercenary forces across the region and into Africa where first the Wagner Group and now the so-called Africa Corps have been aiding pro-Russian regimes there is no sign of an imminent evacuation of the base But Anton Mardasov - a non-resident scholar in the Middle East Institue's Syria programme - told the BBC that the base was essential to Moscow's influence across the Middle East and Africa Mardasov noted that if the new Syrian authorities expelled Russian forces from the country the loss of the base would "deprive Moscow of the opportunity to project power in the region and pose a threat on NATO's southern flank" "It was the modernised runways of Hmeimim that has allowed the Russian military to deploy strategic bombers that could potentially carry nuclear weapons." "If the facilities are completely evacuated it will certainly hit Russia's political economic and military influence in Africa hard since aircraft loaded with equipment cannot fly to Africa without a jump-off airfield and their aerial refuelling is also problematic for a number of reasons" he added Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingA quick recap on what happened in Syria todaypublished at 16:55 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202416:55 GMT 11 December 2024Image source Getty ImagesIf you're just checking in with us now here are today's key developments in Syria and beyond: the father of deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad The BBC has now seen more footage of the events in Qardaha where three-starred flags - the symbol of Syria’s opposition - were displayed next to a smouldering coffin tells AFP’s cameras that they came to the graves of Hafez his wife Anisa and his eldest son Bassel "to take a look at these filthy people because they oppressed the entire Syrian people." Mohammad Nassif adds: “We came and saw it be burnt and destroyed by the people of his village because he starved them The tomb also houses the graves of Hafez al-Assad's wife and eldest son Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRussian ships move from Syria base amid doubts over futurepublished at 16:24 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202416:24 GMT 11 December 2024Image source Images taken on 10 December showed the Tartous naval facility sitting empty Russian naval vessels appear to have temporarily left their main port in Syria satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify show amid continuing uncertainty about Moscow's military future in the country after the fall of its ally Images taken by Maxar on 10 December show some ships have left Tartous naval base since Sunday and are currently sitting offshore in the Mediterranean Sea The Tartous naval facility houses elements of the Black Sea Fleet and is Russia's only repair and replenishment hub in the Mediterranean Established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s it was expanded and modernised by Russia in 2012 as the Kremlin began to increase its support for President Assad's regime The new satellite images show Moscow has at least temporarily brought its ships out of the port with two guided missile frigates moored about 13km (eight miles) off the Syrian coast It is unclear where the remainder of the fleet currently is activity has continued at Russia's other main military facility in Syria Satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify showed at least two large jets - identified by the Janes open-source intelligence organisation as IL-76 transport aircraft - still sitting on the tarmac on 10 December Helicopters could also be seen at the base in the images Janes also notes that air defence systems deployed at the site remain visible Read more from our report here. Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingFrance tells Israel to to withdraw forces from Syria buffer zone - AFPpublished at 16:14 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202416:14 GMT 11 December 2024Image source EPAFrance says Israel needs to remove its military presence from the Golan Heights Over the past few days, we've been reporting how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed his troops to protect the country’s border with Syria by stationing themselves in a buffer zone in the area "Any military deployment in the separation zone between Israel and Syria is a violation of the disengagement agreement of 1974," a French foreign ministry spokesman says in a statement today "France calls on Israel to withdraw from the zone and to respect Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity." Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock took a similar stance on achieving a peaceful transition in Syria noting: “[Israel] must not jeopardise the process with their actions.” Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingCould IS or Al-Qaeda resurge in Syria?published at 15:58 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202415:58 GMT 11 December 2024Frank GardnerSecurity correspondent Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharing'Syria is lawless.. I am anxious of being stuck here with no way out'published at 15:27 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202415:27 GMT 11 December 2024Gabriela PomeroyLive reporter A Christian woman who lives on Syria's coast has been telling me she plans to leave because she thinks the country is "unsafe" Her bags are packed and she is waiting for the airport to re-open and to communicate via WhatsApp messages rather than by phone where the mood on the streets is "a combination of celebrations with celebratory bullets flying all over...and tense and fear Her friend who tried to leave by land via Lebanon was denied entry at the border "Our only hope of leaving is the opening of airports,” she says At any point someone may shoot someone else without repercussions." "We are staying home to protect our houses She says she is not sure whether to trust the statements made by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani that Christians will be safe "Do they believe in the extermination of Christians?" she asks "I am very anxious of being stuck here with no way out." She says she felt safer as a Christian under President Assad The numbers of Christians living in Syria have fallen since the onset of the country's civil war in 2011 Estimates suggest about 300,000 Christians remain in the country but the demographic previously made up about 10% of the population When Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took control of Idlib in the north west they shut churches and banned displays of Christianity more recently HTS has sought to cleanse itself of its former associations with al-Qaeda The leader of a Christian organisation tells our colleagues on the World at One programme that HTS has been in contact and welcomed Christians to be a part of a “new Syria” “It doesn’t mean that we are completely at ease with everything,” says Father Vincent De Beaucoudrey the Syria director of the Jesuit refugee service Father Vincent says there have been “good signs” from HTS giving an example where the group helped distribute bread at a time of short supply he described how he has been heartened to see that the sight of Christmas decorations going up around Aleppo - with the approval of HTS - has not created tensions Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingDamascus ice cream scene bustling as businesses make a returnpublished at 14:52 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202414:52 GMT 11 December 2024Lina SinjabReporting from Damascus We visited the famous Bakdash ice-cream shop This is the traditional Damascene ice cream with pistachio It's really one of the iconic stops for all Syrians but also for foreigners who come across the world to try this ice cream We are in the heart of the old Bazaar and it's bustling lots of people out and about enjoying themselves and repeating the rituals that they've lived through medium and even big businesses and industries with textiles and many other forms of products being produced locally it won't take much for the country to be thriving again Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingVideos confirm rebel presence at Deir al-Zour north-east Syriapublished at 14:28 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202414:28 GMT 11 December 2024By Paul Brown Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWho controls Syria?published at 13:56 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202413:56 GMT 11 December 2024A patchwork of groups have control over different parts of Syria Rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) recently took control of the country's capital 13 years after the start of the country's civil war While many in the country are celebrating the downfall of a family dynasty that ruled Syria with an iron fist the future is uncertain and the situation on the ground remains in flux with a number of different rebel groups controlling different parts of the country Overnight, HTS forces claimed to have taken control of the oil-rich eastern city Deir al-Zour from Kurdish forces Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingThe fallout for Russia and Iranpublished at 13:37 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202413:37 GMT 11 December 2024Barbara Plett UsherReporting from Damascus Russia has a naval base and an air base in Syria and the Kremlin has said Moscow is in contact with the new leadership to discuss their fate The spokesman has criticized Israel for bombing Syrian military installations and setting up a buffer zone along the Golan Heights in the south of the country saying these actions risked destabilising Syria Bashar al-Assad’s other main ally, Iran, accuses Israel and the US of plotting his downfall insists Iran will not be weakened by Assad’s fall from power Another country in the region, Qatar, announced that it planned to reopen its embassy in Damascus While in the capital, the new interim prime minister says he wants to bring millions of Syrian refugees back home protect civilians and provide basic services because the country doesn’t have foreign currency Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingNew interim PM calls on Syrians refugees around the world to 'come back'published at 13:23 Greenwich Mean Time 11 December 202413:23 GMT 11 December 2024Syria's new interim Prime Minister has called on Syrians who fled the Assad regime and are seeking asylum across the globe to "come back" In an interview with the Italian daily newspaper Corriere della Sera, external al-Bashir says his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government is "inheriting a bloated administration plagued by corruption" and insists he will only remain in office until March 2025 He says Syria's finances are in a "very bad state" with no foreign reserves but the transition PM says one of his top priorities is to restore security and stability in Syria Al-Bashir's second objectives include attempts to bring back millions of Syrian refugees who are seeking asylum around the world "Come back," he tells the Italian newspaper to get our country on its feet again and we need everyone's help." Another priority for al-Bashir is to tackle the "precariousness" of essential services in Syria such as electricity EnglishEnglishعربيLink copiedby Nicole GrajewskiPublished on December 9, 2024blog DiwanDiwan a blog from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program and the Malcolm H draws on Carnegie scholars to provide insight into and analysis of the region Bashar al-Assad saw his reign of brutality fall as rebels launched an offensive from the northwest followed by a parallel offensive from the southern front The facade of military strength crumbled as the Syrian army—the same force that had mercilessly barrel-bombed civilian populations and deployed sarin gas against children—abandoned their posts leaving behind arsenals of equipment in a retreat that exposed the regime’s hollow foundation Assad watched helplessly as his longtime patrons orchestrated their own withdrawals—Russia to its coastal strongholds in Lataqiyya and Tartous This left the ophthalmologist-turned-despot to contemplate the ruins of his dictatorship The roots of this moment can be traced back to 2012 when Iran first committed to preserving Assad’s rule the late commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) embarked on a series of visits to Syria to assess the Assad regime’s stability These reportedly left him alarmed about the regime’s ability to withstand the revolutionary surge and insurgent pressure Soleimani also traveled to Lebanon where he met with Hezbollah’s late secretary general Hassan Nasrallah to shore up Assad’s defenses Nasrallah’s and Soleimani’s lobbying shaped Iran’s decision to intervene militarily in Syria particularly in persuading Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Iranian Supreme National Security Council to overcome their initial hesitation Khamenei had expressed significant concerns about the substantial financial and operational commitments required for a large-scale ground intervention Nasrallah and Soleimani presented a case that framed the intervention as essential for preserving both Hezbollah’s future and Iran’s broader regional influence Their argument centered on the existential threat that Assad’s possible downfall would pose to their strategic interests and to the so-called Axis of Resistance Neither Soleimani nor Nasrallah lived to witness the unraveling of their grand strategic vision instead became a testament to its deterioration The very strategy designed to divide and control Syria has collapsed under its own weight but potential irreparable decline for the axis notably during the battle of Khan Touman in 2016 Iran embedded itself within key military and paramilitary structures in Syria One such example is the National Defense Forces (NDF) a pro-regime militia network that Iran helped organize integrating local fighters into Assad’s military strategy and supplementing the overstretched Syrian army Iran also cultivated close ties with certain divisions of the Syrian military particularly the 4th Armored Division and the Republican Guard was a favored recipient of Iranian training and financial aid due to its reliability and effectiveness in major offensives tasked with protecting the regime’s inner circle and key infrastructure benefited from Iranian logistical and operational support the former commander of IRGC ground forces coupled with the severe degradation of Hezbollah’s command structure in Lebanon substantially diminished Iran’s regional influence When the rebel offensive commenced in late November Iran found itself poorly positioned to mount an effective intervention to support Assad when Iranian ground forces complemented Russian air support in the siege of Aleppo neither patron demonstrated the will or capability to launch a similar counteroffensive Both powers had grown increasingly frustrated with Assad’s intransigence now found its movements increasingly restricted by the Syrian authorities with Assad refusing to allow the use of the Golan Heights as a potential front against Israel Damascus had begun limiting Shiite religious activities throughout Syria—a direct challenge to Iran’s efforts to expand its ideological and cultural influence in the region where he chastised the interviewer for wanting “to drown [him] in Syria” questions leading to the swift capture of the crucial Qa’im-Bukamal border crossing by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) The governorate of Deir al-Zor and its border crossing at Bukamal had served as Iran’s crown jewel in Syria, representing a vital link in Tehran’s regional ambitions After capturing control of Deir al-Zor from the Islamic State group in 2017 Iran transformed this eastern Syrian region into a crucial corridor for projecting power across the Levant The Qa’im-Bukamal crossing became the linchpin in Iran’s land bridge to Lebanon and supplies to its proxy forces throughout the region The significance of Deir al-Zor was not just in its logistical value. Iran had invested heavily in securing this territory, establishing a network of military bases, and cultivating deep ties with local tribal leaders. The Iranians exploited Arab grievances against both the Islamic State and later the SDF while simultaneously using the region to pressure U.S forces stationed at the Tanf garrison and near the Conoco gas field Iranian-backed militias frequently launched attacks against American positions from this territory making it a theater in the broader U.S.-Iranian regional competition Yet when Assad’s regime began to fall apart Iran made the surprising decision to cede this vital territory to the SDF This retreat perhaps reflected a more nefarious long-term strategy—betting that the persistent tensions between Kurdish forces and the local Arab population and Turkish-backed rebel forces would eventually create new opportunities for a return of Iranian influence Iran’s withdrawal from Syria extended far beyond abandoning Deir al-Zor, marking a complete reversal of its military presence across the country. The night before Assad fled Damascus, the New York Times revealed that Iran had begun evacuating its military commanders and personnel from Syria The stark reality of Iran’s capitulation was captured by an analyst close to the regime who told the newspaper: “Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight… The bottom line is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.” The collapse of the Assad regime effectively dismantled over a decade of Iranian investment in Syria unraveling the complex web of influence woven by Qassem Soleimani he had devised a strategy of regional destabilization that inflicted immense suffering across the Middle East His approach was methodical: identify vulnerable states and fill power vacuums with Iran-backed militias that became notorious for their brutality and exploitation of local populations The logic of this approach lay in Soleimani’s understanding that governmental weakness was the fertile soil in which Iranian influence could take root and flourish Syria represented the pinnacle of this strategy where Soleimani helped transform a popular uprising into a catastrophic civil war What initially began as an intervention in Syria to salvage the Axis of Resistance became This network of proxy forces and allied regimes was meant to be Iran’s answer to regional isolation and Western pressure The model that seemed so effective in Lebanon crumbled months earlier with Israel’s attrition of Hezbollah culminating in the devastating Israeli bombing campaign and invasion that began on October 1 Yet all of this remains highly speculative What is certain is that Assad’s inglorious fall has exposed the profound damage inflicted on Syria by his rule and the external powers that sustained him The coming months will reveal whether Iran can adapt its strategy to Syria’s new reality or whether Assad’s exit marks a genuine endpoint to its Syrian ambitions Syria has entered a new chapter in its history with the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime Nearly fourteen years after the start of the Syrian uprising in March 2011 this regime change has also had a profound impact on regional and international geopolitical dynamics building on years of research and analysis will engage in a detailed exploration of Syria’s transition Our work will also examine how the country navigates its complex ethnic and sectarian landscape and adapts to shifts in the regional balance of power Recent history illustrates why Lebanese officials are so wary of the United States Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces are adopting a new strategy for survival The Zainabiyyat battalion has been able to access traditionally inaccessible spaces in Yemen 2021 (WAFA) – A Palestinian young man was critically injured today by Israeli police as the latter savagely attacked a wedding ceremony in the town of Deir al-Asad in the north of the Palestinian territories occupied since 1948 Witnesses said that an Israeli Border Guards Police force raided a wedding ceremony in Deir al-Asad and clashed with participants including a critical one for a Palestinian youth who was said to be in the thirties of age The latter was moved to hospital for medical treatment The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports The Bashar al Assad regime faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces including local opposition in southwestern Syria the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Fateh Mubin Operations Room have each rapidly seized territory across Syria in the past 24 hours as Assad regime forces have collapsed Assad’s backers do not appear willing to bolster the Syrian Arab Army by rapidly deploying additional forces One source “close to the Kremlin,” for example told Bloomberg that unless Assad’s forces manage to form a defensive line—a scenario that is becoming increasingly less likely as more and more Syrian regime units break—Russia will not “save” Assad.[1] The Axis of Resistance’s support to the Assad regime will almost certainly fail to stop the opposition offensive at this time unless ground forces are deployed rapidly and in larger numbers Iran reportedly plans to send missiles and drones to Syria and both Iran and Hezbollah will reportedly provide military advisers.[2] Hezbollah sent a “small number” of “advisers” to Syria on December 5 and Hezbollah has already deployed Hezbollah advisers to Homs.[3] The small number of advisers is unlikely to reverse the country-wide collapse of Syrian forces and missiles and drones cannot hold or take ground on their own Hezbollah is unlikely to deploy the larger number of fighters required for Assad to regain territory given Hezbollah's requirements in Lebanon after the group suffered heavy losses during the Israeli ground campaign in Lebanon and Syrian foreign ministers held a trilateral summit in Baghdad on December 6 to coordinate responses to Syria’s security crisis.[4] The purpose of Araghchi’s visit to Baghdad was likely to solidify a coordinated approach among Iraq Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said on December 4 that Iran would “consider” any Syrian request for Iranian ground forces though no such request has been made at this time.[5] The rapid collapse of Syrian forces across the country will make it difficult for these Iranian ground forces to be able to stop the advance of the Syrian opposition The opposition is rapidly seizing Assad-held territory which will make it difficult for Iran to mobilize and then deploy its forces to Syria against the rebels before the rebels destroy much of Assad’s remaining forces Turkey appears equally unwilling to broker a settlement short of Assad’s removal as HTS seeks to overthrow Assad HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani said that his forces seek to replace the Assad regime in Damascus with a government and a “council chosen by the people.”[6] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the opposition’s goal was “Damascus,” and that he had tried to broker an agreement with the Assad Regime in the past but that the regime was unwilling to do so.[7] Turkey has previously flirted with the idea of an agreement with the Assad Regime in recent years that would allow Turkey to return its Syrian refugee population to Syria Syrian opposition forces led by HTS are now on the outskirts of Homs City after seizing Hama City on December 5 Geolocated footage posted on December 6 showed HTS-led forces seized Rastan (12 kilometers north of Homs City) from the SAA.[9] Geolocated footage posted on December 6 shows that HTS-led forces continued their advance south and seized Talbiseh approximately 4 kilometers north of Homs City.[10] Opposition forces are likely northwest of Homs City Regional and local media posted videos showing opposition forces in towns just outside the ring road and opposition and regional media claimed that the Assad regime conducted airstrikes targeting opposition forces in these towns.[11] The SDF seized key areas in regime-held Deir ez Zor and Raqqa provinces on December 6 making it more difficult for Iran to move forces to Assad or to supply Iranian-backed forces in Syria Local opposition groups in southwestern Syria have rapidly seized towns across Daraa Province and Suwayda Province Geolocated footage posted on December 6 shows fighters from the Southern Operations Room seized control of the SAA 52nd Brigade base in eastern Daraa Province.[15] Syrian opposition media claimed that opposition forces have seized over a dozen towns across Suwayda Province.[16] Additional footage posted on December 6 indicates that Druze fighters have seized Suwayda City.[17] CTP-ISW cannot assess with confidence that opposition forces control rural terrain between these towns and cities that does not necessarily imply that regime forces retain any control over the rural terrain in southwestern Syria The following text also appears in the Institute for the Study of War’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: Russian forces have not yet evacuated the Russian naval base in Tartus but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory Former Norwegian Navy officer and independent OSINT analyst Thord Are Iversen assessed that the Russian Novorossiysk Kilo-class submarine the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate and possibly the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler have returned to the port in Tartus based on satellite imagery collected on December 6.[18] Satellite imagery collected on December 3 showed that Russia had removed all of its ships stationed at Tartus - the Admiral Grigorovich frigate and Admiral Golovko Gorskhov-class frigates and likely the Vyazma oiler and the Yelnya Altay-class oiler - from the port sometime between December 1 and 3.[19] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on December 3 that ten Russian naval vessels including the Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko frigates and Novorossiysk submarine participated in hypersonic and cruise missile launch exercises in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov reportedly informed the US about Russian exercises in the Mediterranean during a call on November 27.[20] It is unclear if Russia removed the Admiral Grigorovich and the two oilers from Tartus as part of the exercise as well Some of the vessels that Russian forces removed from Tartus between December 1 and 3 have not returned to port as of December 6 Russia appears to be redeploying at least some of its air defense assets that were defending Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria but the reason for this redeployment remains unclear at this time It is unclear if Russian forces are redeploying the air defense systems to new positions within western Syria in order to improve their survivability or if Russian forces are moving the air defense systems for evacuation from Syria through Tartus The IDF reported on December 6 that it conducted airstrikes that killed several Hamas fighters in the Gaza Strip during the past week.[25] The IDF said that these fighters participated in the October 7 attacks and targeted the Israeli forces operating inside the Gaza Strip.[26] The IDF continued clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip on December 6 A Palestinian journalist reported gunfire from Israeli vehicles in Beit Lahia and Jabalia refugee camp.[27] The IDF also demolished civilian infrastructure in Beit Lahia and Jabalia The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fired rockets targeting Israeli forces along the Netzarim Corridor on December 6.[29] The IDF reported on December 6 that the 933rd Infantry Brigade (143rd Division) located and destroyed a tunnel rigged with explosives in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.[30] The IDF also located weapons stockpiles while operating in Rafah in recent days The IDF killed members of a militia cell that mortared Israeli forces in the area The IDF released 34 Palestinian detainees into the Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom border crossing on December 5.[31] A Palestinian journalist reported that the IDF transferred 26 detainees to a hospital in Khan Younis.[32] The IDF presumably detained them when it started clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip in October 2024 given that almost all the detainees are residents of the northern Gaza Strip according to the list published by a Palestinian journalist.[33] Lebanese media reported that Israeli forces conducted clearing operations in towns in southern Lebanon on the border with Israel on December 6 Lebanese media reported that the IDF conducted clearing operations in Kfar Kila and Mays al Jabal.[34] Lebanese media reported that Israeli forces conducted clearing operations in Khiam on December 6.[35] The IDF previously destroyed a Hezbollah weapon stockpile in Khiam on December 4.[36] Lebanese media reported IDF gunfire in Ramyeh and separately in Aita al Shaab on December 6.[37] The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) set up checkpoints and conducted patrols along the Syria-Lebanon border following the Syrian opposition offensive.[38] Lebanon closed all its land borders except the main one that links Beirut and Damascus The IDF 226th Paratroopers Brigade (146th Division) and IDF 300th Territorial Brigade (146th Division) continued operations in southwestern Lebanon.[40] The IDF located rocket launchers aimed at Israel during searches in southwestern Lebanon over the past week The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire permits the IDF to operate in southern Lebanon until January 25 2025.[41] The IDF 226th Paratroopers Brigade deployed to southwestern Lebanon on November 14.[42] The IDF 300th Territorial Brigade has operated in southern Lebanon in recent days.[43] Lebanese media reported that Israeli forces conducted clearing operations in Aitaroun on December 6.[44] Lebanese media reported the sound of gunfire and explosions in the center of Aitaroun.[45] Lebanese media separately reported that the "IDF launched a missile” in Aitaroun.[46] The IDF conducted at least two airstrikes on December 5 targeting Hezbollah weapons smuggling routes along the Syria-Lebanon border.[47] Israeli media reported that the IDF targeted the Arida border crossing in northern Lebanon.[48] Qatari media and a Syria-based journalist reported that the IDF targeted the Jusiyah border crossing in northeastern Lebanon.[49] Geolocated footage showed the IDF airstrike targeted a structure near the Jusiyah border crossing.[50] The IDF has repeatedly targeted the Jusiyah border crossing due to Hezbollah weapons smuggling there.[51] The weapons are transferred by Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 which is responsible for transporting arms to Hezbollah.[52] The IDF reiterated its commitment to remove any threats in Lebanon that violate the ceasefire.[53] Lebanese media reported that unspecified actors in Lebanon launched a rocket on December 6 targeting the western Galilee region.[54] Hezbollah has not claimed this attack at the time of writing Neither Israeli media nor the IDF have commented on the incident at the time of writing Hezbollah has not claimed any attacks into Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on December 5 The head of the five-member Israel-Lebanon ceasefire supervisory committee US General Major General Jasper Jeffers toured the South Litani sector by helicopter on December 6.[55] French General Brigadier General Guillaume Ponchin and LAF Commander of the South Litani Sector Brigadier General Edgar Lowndes accompanied Jeffers The supervisory committee will hold its first session next week.[56] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi announced on December 6 that the rate at which Iran can enrich uranium up to 60% purity is “increasing dramatically.”[57] The IAEA estimates that Iran's capacity to produce uranium enriched to 60% purity may be increased to 7-8 times more than Iran’s previous rate of producing approximately 5-7 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity per month The United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon[58] Iran successfully launched its heaviest payload into space on December 6 Iran used the Simorgh Satellite Launch Vehicle which was carrying a 300km payload.[59] The payload included a Fakhr-1 nanosatellite and a module for transferring satellites to higher-altitude orbits The Fakhr-1 nanosatellite was developed by Iran Electronics Industries in collaboration with Malek Ashtar University of Technology and commissioned by the Iranian Athesh.[60] After separating from the Simorgh carrier the Fakhr-1 successfully transmitted telemetry data and responded to ground station commands confirming its stabilization in orbit.[61] The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979 This transnational coalition is comprised of state and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/syrian-rebels-eye-next-prize-while-assad-awaits-russia-and-iran   [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-aims-send-missiles-drones-military-advisers-syria-senior-official-says-2024-12-06/ [3] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-sent-supervising-forces-syrias-homs-sources-say-2024-12-06/ [4] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/09/16/3214350; https://x.com/SanaAjel/status/1865071391545893114 [5] https://www.alaraby.co.uk/politics/%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AC%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A6%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%91 [6] https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-rebel-forces-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-jolani-intl-latam/index.html [7] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/turkiye-wishes-syrian-oppositions-march-to-continue-without-accidents-president-erdogan/3416234 [8] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/its-been-over-a-decade-since-ankara-and-damascus-talked-what-changed/; https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/turkey-syria-ocalan-pkk/ [9] https://x.com/COUPSURE/status/1864917942770508198 ; https://x.com/markito0171/status/1864915081936380381 [10] https://x.com/mohammed_asakra/status/1864921374986506705 ; https://x.com/chrsathey/status/1864932824601534900 ; https://x.com/MiddleEastBuka/status/1864925811964252524 ; https://x.com/Levant_24_/status/1864924505493377299 [11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwSnTeWSoP8&ab_channel=AlJazeeraMubasher%D9%82%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A9%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%B1 ; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1088219522757320 ; [12] https://x.com/OALD24/status/1864958884638572770 https://x.com/HalabTodayTV/status/1864959209198030910 https://x.com/OALD24/status/1864989023967617191 https://x.com/OALD24/status/1864990491743228037 [13] https://x.com/SamDoak5/status/1865029379354440029; https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/1864998494768943499 https://x.com/OALD24/status/1865007994104066251 [14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-13-2023 [15] https://x.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1865006571492610334 ; https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1865020628912230771 ; https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865017426305261996 ; https://x.com/Nuorgolan/status/1865014701580501005 ; https://x.com/Asia_Intel/status/1865032155010564344 [17] https://x.com/Nuorgolan/status/1865051314444538130 ; https://x.com/andynovy/status/1865063010370261154 ; https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865060801729421527 ; https://x.com/Nuorgolan/status/1865064972310454526 ; https://x.com/AlarabyTV/status/1865085993331622373 ; https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1865081404951798206 [18] https://x.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1865035425397510254; https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1865032193942147336 [20] https://t.me/mod_russia/46459; https://abcnews.go.com/International/russian-general-warned-us-hypersonic-missile-test-mediterranean/story?id=116463590 [21] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/syrian-rebels-eye-next-prize-while-assad-awaits-russia-and-iran [23] https://x.com/Mitch_Ulrich/status/1865093121723281496; https://x.com/Mitch_Ulrich/status/1865093374853648408 [25] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1864928521811890670 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1864928532637323618 [26] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1864928524328378664 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1864928527067369491 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1864928530099744842 [27] https://t.me/hamza20300/316162 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/316249 [28] https://t.me/hamza20300/316239 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/316234 [31] https://t.me/hamza20300/316152 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/316110 [34] https://t.me/channelnabatieh/108319 ; https://x.com/AlakhbarNews/status/1864965318998638784 [36] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-december-4-2024 [39] https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-gaza-lebanon-news-6-december-2024-59b74360c1b44c99b47e1c6d80118bd1 [41] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/full-text-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal/ 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[58] https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ODNI-Unclassified-Irans-Nuclear-Weapons-Capability-and-Terrorism-Monitoring-Act-of-2022-202411.pdf [59] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-launches-advanced-module-deploy-satellites-higher-altitudes-media-say-2024-12-06/ https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/09/16/3214102 [60] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/711121 [61] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/09/16/3214108 Syria’s popular movement which began on March 15 2011 when a group of students wrote on a wall now it's your turn" has now culminated in the end of the country’s Baath Party rule after 61 years when anti-regime forces captured the capital Damascus on Sunday Armed groups that overthrew the Baath regime began clashing with regime forces in the western countryside of Aleppo on the morning of Nov The groups first established control in Aleppo and then soon take control of the cities of Idlib and on Sunday morning captured the capital Damascus Here is Anadolu's review of key developments in recent weeks that led to the collapse of the Assad regime - Heyet Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launches a large-scale operation in the western countryside of Aleppo which started its move in the town of Kabtan Al Jabal - Armed anti-regime groups seize heavy weapons and military vehicles belonging to the regime in the regions they took control of - Many regime soldiers are killed in clashes and dozens are taken prisoner - Anti-regime groups seize the villages of Trimbe - Armed anti-regime groups clashing with Assad regime forces reach within one kilometer (about 0.62 miles) of the outskirts of Aleppo - Anti-regime groups clashing with Assad regime forces take control of strategically important Saraqib district in Idlib - Armed anti-regime groups begin to enter Aleppo city center - Anti-Assad regime armed groups take control of many neighborhoods in Aleppo as well as most of the city - Aleppo International Airport handed over to PKK terror group by Assad regime during the day anti-regime groups clashing with the PKK/YPG terrorists retake it - Anti-regime groups take control of Idlib’s strategically important Maarrat al-Numan - Anti-regime groups take control of Manbij-Aleppo road and M4 highway - Terrorist group PKK/YPG takes control from regime of Sheikhnajjar Aleppo’s industrial zone; the regime leaves Dayr Hafir to the occupation of the terrorist PKK/YPG - Armed anti-regime groups retake the Khan Shaykhun district and establish control over the entire Idlib province against regime forces - Opposition Syrian National Army (SNA) launches Operation Dawn of Freedom against PKK/YPG terrorists' plan to create terror corridor between Tel Rifaat and northeastern Syria - SNA takes control of the entire Tel Rifaat district center in Operation Dawn of Freedom against terrorist PKK/YPG - A demonstration of support is held in southern Syria’s Suwayda province which has a predominantly Druze population for the recapture of Aleppo and Idlib from Bashar Assad regime forces where US forces are deployed in Homs and Deir ez-Zor the US-backed Syrian Free Army launches an attack on the Al-Bukamal and Mayadin districts - Armed anti-regime groups advance on Aleppo and Idlib provinces and recapture 16 more residential areas from regime forces in Hama province - US-backed terrorist group PKK/YPG launches attack to remove Assad regime forces and Iranian-backed groups from seven villages east of the Euphrates in Deir ez-Zor province a total of 81 civilians were killed and 304 civilians injured in attacks carried out by Assad regime and Russia in northern provinces of Aleppo and Idlib - Anti-regime forces clashing with Assad regime forces take control of the settlements of Zor Al Mahruka - Assad regime detains people age 15-47 who have guns in Eastern Ghouta region of capital Damascus - Armed anti-regime groups clashing with Assad regime forces about 5 km (3.1 miles) outside the city center of Hama take control of 20 more villages - Armed anti-regime groups in Hama take control of city center - Unidentified aircraft carries out airstrike on Resten highway bridge connecting Homs and Hama provinces - Anti-regime groups capture Rasten and Talbise districts in strategically important Homs province - Israeli army announces it carried out airstrikes on the border gates between Syria and Lebanon - In strategically important Homs province armed anti-regime groups advance to inner parts of the city center - With growing pressure of armed anti-regime groups on Homs and the capital Damascus the regime army on the Iraqi border begins to shift some elements to the west - Assad regime hands over control of Deir ez-Zor province on the Iraqi border to terrorist group PKK/YPG - Kamikaze drone attacks area where state radio and television and Defense Ministry building are located in center of Damascus - Local armed groups in southern Syria’s Suwayda province give Assad regime forces 24 hours to leave the city - Groups advancing against Assad regime forces begin to enter southern suburbs of Damascus anti-Assad regime groups take control of the city center - Local opposition groups in southern Suwayda province take control - Assad regime largely loses control of Damascus after demonstrators enter key settlements which is identified with the regime and notorious for its torture - The 61-year bloody rule of the Baath Party collapses when Damascus is taken from regime control - A group of opposition groups announce on Syrian state TV that Assad has been overthrown and all prisoners in prisons have been released - With the collapse of the 61-year Baath regime in Syria and the end of the Assad family era statues of Bashar Assad's father Hafez Assad are torn down in various cities of the country - Armed anti-regime groups began to enter the center of Deir ez-Zor occupied by the terrorist organization PKK/YPG which is trying to gain ground in eastern Syria You don't have permission to access the page you requested What is this page?The website you are visiting is protected.For security reasons this page cannot be displayed Buildings destroyed by Israeli raids on Gaza Strip on May 14 The Palestinian News and Information Agency (WAFA) Several Syrian pro-government and pro-Iranian groups launched a major attack against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are backed by Washington, in Syria’s eastern province of Deir ez-Zor leading to violent clashes on Wednesday in some of the heaviest fighting in more than a year in the area where US troops are deployed as part the international coalition fighting the Islamic State (ISIS) The warring sides exchanged heavy artillery and mortar shelling while US helicopters struck positions belonging to Arab tribal forces The clashes began on Tuesday night and continued throughout Wednesday after Syrian government forces and allied militias launched a ground attack against the SDF in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River The SDF said in a statement on Facebook that the National Defense Forces — a pro-government group that receives training and assistance from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — and allied groups began firing mortar and artillery shelling at their positions prompting heavy clashes in the vicinity of the towns of Diban which left two civilians dead and five others injured The Kurdish-led group added that its forces managed to thwart the attack the SDF said it is carrying out a sweeping operation to expel the remaining fighters in the area Local media reports said the SDF brought in large military reinforcements from its headquarters in the Maamel area in northern Deir ez-Zor from al-Shaddadi in the south of Hasakah province and also from Raqqa to repel the attack US helicopters reportedly intervened and opened fire at the tribal forces in Diban in support of the SDF the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said three pro-Iranian fighters and three civilians were killed while more than 10 people were injured in the fighting Local media reports said pro-government forces and a coalition of Arab tribes supported by Iran were behind the attack the leader of the so-called Arab Tribal Forces (also known as the Arab Tribal and Clan Forces) vowed in a recording published on social media Wednesday to launch more attacks and liberate “the Arab land” from the SDF’s "occupation." The Arab Tribal Forces was established by Hifl in September 2023 with the aim of fighting the SDF in Deir ez-Zor province the US-led diplomatic and military operation against ISIS tribal groups receive "explicit support from the Syrian regime and its Iranian allies on the western side of the Euphrates River rearm and launch attacks across the river in SDF-controlled villages on the eastern side." said the tribal forces led by Hifl attacked several military checkpoints and sites belonging to the SDF in the east of Deir ez-Zor and took control of a number of towns following heavy clashes with light and medium weapons Tribal sources told Al-Watan that the Arab fighters captured 10 SDF members and seized military equipment which has a vast network of sources on the ground in Syria reported on Thursday that around 20 vehicles carrying pro-Iranian fighters fully armed arrived at the headquarter of the pro-government Baqir Brigade in the Dahiya neighborhood of Deir ez-Zor city is roughly divided into two areas of control on the western bank of the Euphrates River that passes through the province is controlled by Syrian government forces and allied militias The SDF controls the eastern part of the province The Kurdish-led forces captured the area in March 2019 after expelling ISIS with backing from the US-led coalition Deir ez-Zor is mainly inhabited by Arabs belonging to dozens of different tribes and clans that are spread across the province on both sides of the Euphrates Tensions between the local Arab population and the SDF have occasionally erupted in the past The Arabs accuse the SDF of illegally occupying their land and stealing the resources tensions reached their peak after the arrest by the SDF of the leader of the Deir ez-Zor Military Council leading to heavy clashes between Arab tribes and SDF fighters Wednesday’s clashes occurred just a few kilometers away from al-Omar and Conoco oil fields that house US troops in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor the US forces at the bases were on high alert during the fighting On Monday, seven US personnel were injured in a rocket attack on al-Asad air base in western Iraq No group claimed responsibility for the attack But it comes as Iran and its proxies in the region vowed to respond to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week The Pentagon announced last Friday a plan to deploy additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the Middle East ahead of the expected Iranian response For subscription inquiries, please contact subscription.support@al-monitor.com For all other inquiries, please use contactus@al-monitor.com After the surprise ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad following a sweeping campaign by opposition militia Syrians have raised a new flag to represent the overthrow of nearly six decades of the Assad family’s iron-fisted rule The flag of the Syrian Arab Republic led by Bashar al-Assad of the Ba'ath Party is split into three horizontal bands — known in vexillology (the study of flags) as “fesses” Red represents the blood shed in the Syrian revolution The green stars in the middle represent Syria and Egypt — the two founding states of the United Arab Republic a short-lived state comprising Egypt and Syria from 1958 until 1961 when a coup by the army reinstated Syria as an independent nation Ousted President Bashar al-Assad’s father and Ba'ath party officers established this basic design as Syria’s official flag after the coup Opposition groups chose a flag to distinguish themselves from the Assad government and its military state The design revives the so-called “independence” flag flown during Syria’s struggle for independence from France The red fess is replaced with green and three red stars represent the three main districts of Syria: Aleppo The “independence” flag became a rallying emblem of Syrian refugees around the world and was carried by supporters of the opposition in Washington Today’s Paper#masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }Syria After Civil War By Samuel Granados and Vivian Yee Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project The main rebel coalition is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham In just two weeks, Syrian rebel forces swept from the northwest and took control of Syria’s major cities in quick succession, forcing the fall of President Bashar al-Assad The rebels moved along a north-south corridor that forms the country’s main spine to take Damascus The situation on the ground remains fluid, and the future of Syria without Mr. al-Assad is unclear. Several groups still hold territory in different parts of the country in addition to the main rebel coalition, and the main players in the region all have a stake in the outcome The offensive comes after a period of relative the territorial map had stayed largely frozen: the Assad government had dominated much of the country while an array of other factions held different fragments of the rest Here are the major groups in Syria’s nearly 14-year-old civil war: Their territory had shrunk until late November Note: Opposition forces include both extremist Islamic and moderate factions The war erupted in 2011 after Mr. al-Assad brutally crushed antigovernment protests. In the early stages, rebels — who included both extremist Islamist and moderate factions — managed to take most of the country’s northwest and expanded into other territory they controlled not only their stronghold in the northwest as well as villages along the Euphrates and in al-Hasakah province Then came the rise of the Islamic State in 2014 and Russia’s decision the following year to give Mr The Islamic State expanded its so-called caliphate into northeastern Syria while overpowering Russian airstrikes forced the rebel groups that had been battling Mr those opposition forces held nothing but a patch of the northwest until their latest offensive began in late November and quickly swept to the capital The conflict shifted in their favor years ago — then they lost Syria’s major cities in just two weeks Locations controlled by Syrian gov’t and allies pro-Assad forces — including not only Syria’s military but also fighters sent by Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah — were able to retake more territory over the last decade after a series of events shifted the conflict in their favor Pro-government troops recaptured Aleppo with the help of Russian airstrikes after a four-year battle ending in 2016 a government offensive against the Islamic State put Mr al-Assad back in control of many towns along the Euphrates River And his forces’ advance on northwestern Syria in 2019 and 2020 cornered opposition forces in Idlib Province bringing the conflict to an impasse that lasted until late November allowed an ambitious Al Qaeda offshoot called the Islamic State to mushroom rapidly across both countries in 2013 and 2014 it conquered an expanse of territory in Syria and Iraq that it ruled as a so-called caliphate the group held a third of Syria and about 40 percent of Iraq with the northern Syrian city of Raqqa as its capital But a Western coalition led by the United States targeted the group with thousands of airstrikes and U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces eventually routed the Islamic State in much of northeastern Syria Pro-Assad forces also pushed the group back in other areas it had lost all but tiny shreds of its territory They took territory from the Islamic State but lost other ground to Turkish-backed forces Forces from Syria’s Kurdish ethnic minority became the United States’ main local partner in the fight against the Islamic State After the extremist group was defeated in large parts of the country the Kurdish-led forces consolidated control over towns in the northeast expanding an autonomous region they had built there Kurdish fighters still had to contend with their longtime enemy across the border which regards them as linked to a Kurdish separatist insurgency Captured parts of the northern border area from Kurdish-led forces Locations controlled by Turkish military operations the Turkish military has launched several military interventions across the border into Syria whom Turkey views as linked to what it calls a terrorist separatist movement in Turkey 2018 and 2019 – were aimed at taking control of towns and villages the Kurdish-led fighters had previously held along the northern border where it provides public services and where its currency is routinely used Note: Historical yearly data shows areas of control for Jan Syria's Eastern Deir ez-Zor province has been witnessing an escalation in clashes between Arab tribes and US-backed Kurdish separatist forces in recent days marginalized by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which controls the region's oil resources have attacked positions of the Kurdish separatists The recent clashes have involved Arab tribes and local nomads confronting elements affiliated with separatist Syrian Kurdish forces Arab tribal forces have succeeded in pushing back the Kurdish units and reclaimed several areas previously under the control of the autonomous administration east of the Euphrates Nomadic forces in eastern Deir ez-Zor have successfully pushed back Kurdish separatist militias and advanced near the al-Omar oil field American fighter jets have reportedly bombarded areas in al-Dhabian and the suburbs of al-Mayadeen to support the Kurdish militants have made significant gains in the areas of al-Latwa Local media reported that the recent clashes have resulted in at least 8 deaths and 18 injuries The nomadic forces are demanding the right to self-determination and the withdrawal of both US occupation forces and Kurdish separatists from Deir ez-Zor The conflict between the Al-Akeidat clan and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has intensified since last year after the Kurdish separatists arrested the clan’s representative on charges of links to the Syrian government which led the clan leader to launch an uprising against the Kurdish forces The US and its proxies have accused Arab nomads of being linked to Iran and the resistance front to justify the continued presence of American forces in Syria the area east of the Euphrates has experienced significant unrest supported by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) including elections in Kurdish-controlled areas and potential rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara have led to armed conflicts in northern Syria signaling possible shifts in the region's power dynamics have lately been attacking Turkish forces in northern Syria the Turkish military is targeting SDF positions to disrupt their US-backed plan to establish a separatist statelet in the region Press TV’s website can also be accessed at the following alternate addresses: www.presstv.co.uk Click the "share" button in the bottom bar Assad’s opponents often point out that these advances rely on foreign support but Russian and Iranian involvement in Syria is just one side of the coin: no less important is the slackening of international support for the Syrian opposition whose Russian and Iranian allies predictably counter-escalated by increasing their own support to his regime sectarian civil war accompanied by surging regional instability and jihadi extremism the resolve of anti-Assad nations faded away and international attention began to drift toward treating the second-order effects of the war Whereas more than 100 nations—over half the states in the world—joined an anti-Assad coalition known as the “Friends of Syria” in 2012 the armed opposition had to settle for military support from a much smaller group—mainly the United States They are now subtly shifting the goalposts to deemphasize demands for Assad’s resignation downsizing support programs for the opposition and pressuring their Syrian clients to focus on other enemies This report will chart the rise and fall of the Friends of Syria coalition and other nations from their multi-year campaign for regime change in Syria A total of four Friends of Syria meetings were held in 2012: The thinking behind these moves was twofold the Friends of Syria bloc was trying to strip Assad’s government of legitimacy the nations involved wanted to nurture a cohesive and non-extremist opposition that could negotiate Assad’s resignation and step into the vacuum if Syria was already devolving into sectarian warfare by late 2011 with regime control fraying across the Sunni countryside The influx of massive foreign support over spring and summer 2012 led to an unprecedented proliferation of armed groups across Syria Unable to cope with the rising tide of guerrilla attacks the army was compelled to withdraw into safer areas and even some areas of Damascus and Aleppo Arms program Timber Sycamore quickly grew into one of the most expensive covert programs in CIA history spending about a billion dollars per year by 2015 Though the United States did eventually manage to impose some order on regional gunrunning efforts and dealt considerable damage to Assad’s regime Washington was not able to tame the insurgency itself it now hosted an array of radical jihadi groups Some Western and Syrian critics of Assad have argued that the militarization and Islamization of the uprising was an inevitable reaction to brutal repression and that democratic activists represented the “original revolution.” But a vastly stronger Islamist movement begged to disagree and as Syria continued its descent into sectarian civil war such counterfactuals simply did not matter—the opposition was what it was not what its backers would have liked it to be No matter how intensely many Syrian and foreign activists and diplomats disliked Assad—whose regime had always been corrupt and undemocratic and was now also responsible for a growing list of war crimes—an insurgency of this type could never have garnered broad international support More than sixty nations had taken part in the group’s first conference in Tunis in February 2012 and even greater numbers attended the follow-up meetings in Istanbul It was the high point of international support for the Syrian opposition and Arab foreign ministries were still confidently assuring their governments that Assad was on his way out Though the Syrian president was now widely reviled as a war criminal and held responsible for tens of thousands of civilian deaths the likely alternatives seemed to be either stateless jihadi-infested chaos or some sort of Talibanesque theocracy even these governments’ enthusiasm began to fade and other At this point it was overwhelmingly clear that the Syrian opposition could not fill the void if Assad were to be overthrown militarily Obama appears to have viewed any intervention that would likely end with the United States owning another Afghan-style failed state as a wholly unacceptable proposition and an intervention aiming to simply kick Assad out and leave an anarchic Syria to fester as equally bad or worse Yet the White House would not abandon the goal of Assad’s removal instead settling on the idea that a negotiated transition could be achieved if the Syrian government came under enough rebel pressure A first attempt at organizing Syrian-Syrian talks about a handover of power the so-called Geneva II negotiations that took place in January and February 2014 failed completely and gave no reason to think that a constructive compromise was possible as well as most of America’s allies in the Friends of Syria sphere arguing that Assad would come around if he just felt enough pressure but clearly did not want to be seen to reward the Syrian regime for its obstructionist tactics and abuse of international humanitarian law Syria policy simply floundered on after the Geneva II failure—an ongoing low-level intervention unhappily searching for its own ulterior purpose overseen by a president that did not seem to believe in what he was doing but explicitly barred from targeting pro-Assad forces The United States was now more reluctant than ever to see Damascus fall fearing that a government collapse would provide the Islamic State with even more ungoverned space in which to operate strategy was now to weaken Assad so much that he would agree to give up power yet not so much that civilian or military institutions broke down or large cities were overrun by jihadis The CIA and its on-the-ground implementers an unwieldy cohort of rival regional intelligence bosses and rebel fixers could not fine-tune insurgent activity to achieve predictable effects nor could they rewrite the social and ideological landscape of rebel-held Syria by remote control It wasn’t that sending guns across the border was an ineffectual tactic enough such support could almost certainly have destroyed the Syrian regime and killed Assad—had that been the purpose hundred-headed Sunni guerrilla force to tweak the Syrian president’s personal cost-benefit analysis of a political transition was like trying to perform heart surgery with a chainsaw the northwestern cities of Idlib and Jisr al-Shughour were taken by an Islamist force spearheaded by al-Qaeda fighters defense and intelligence analysts were sounding the alarm warning that Syria was at risk of turning into a permanent jihadi safe haven on Europe’s doorstep Russia and Iran did not anguish over the ideological inclination of their allies had no plans to engineer a new opposition movement and were not seeking to midwife a delicately balanced transitional government They wanted something much simpler: to crush the rebellion by empowering Assad’s already-existing regime unencumbered by any constitutional or humanitarian niceties The Russian-Iranian surge had soon tipped the scales back in Assad’s favor and by spring 2016 the Syrian government was reclaiming lost lands The United States and its allies tried to broker new truces and keep transition talks going in Geneva but declined the invitation to counter-escalate on behalf of an opposition they no longer wanted to see in power realizing that they could not realistically achieve their shared goal of ending Assad’s rule members of the former Friends of Syria bloc began to drift apart to focus on more narrowly national interests we will examine how this drift played out for each major actor or group of actors among the Friends of Syria: the United States If the Saudis are so concerned about Syria then they should go in themselves — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 23, 2013 DO NOT ATTACK SYRIA – IF YOU DO MANY VERY BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN & FROM THAT FIGHT THE U.S — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 5, 2013 Do you believe that Obama is giving weapons to "moderate rebels" in Syria.Isn't sure who they are — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 20, 2014 Opinion on Trump’s Syria policy is predictably split Some in the American political establishment fume over what they see as humiliation at the hands of Vladimir Putin Others view Russia’s attempt to lead the war to a Moscow-friendly conclusion as an opportunity to disentangle America from an intractable problem allowing the United States to spend its political capital on more productive endeavors Iran’s role in Syria continues to irk American policymakers and may trigger new conflicts down the line only France and the United Kingdom have really put their shoulder to the wheel of Syria’s revolution though Germany and several other EU governments play a political or humanitarian role “The UK and France got involved for different reasons,” says Christopher Phillips. “What they shared was a sense of confidence after the ‘success’ of Libya in late 2011, and both Sarkozy and Cameron initially hoped to replicate that success in Syria, believing they could direct the United States again. However, both were to learn that Obama saw Syria very differently,” he says.56 The Russian intervention and the election of Donald Trump have since ended any lingering Anglo-French hopes for a U.S.-led intervention in Syria Both countries have since fallen in line with the new American position Parisian diplomatic push is really just France moonwalking away from its own unsustainable policies in the hope that it will look like forward motion and one should probably credit European diplomats with understanding that the EU’s cash-for-transition scheme is a fig leaf intended to allow Europeans to save face as they beat a retreat from coercive diplomacy into a much less demanding political posture which consists in passively offering trades they know Assad won’t accept while acquiescing to Syria’s Baathist restoration Russia’s intervention effectively ended Turkish hopes of regime change in Damascus Although Russia’s entry into the conflict brought considerable tension and ended up constraining Erdogan’s freedom of action it also cleared up Turkey’s hopelessly tangled list of national priorities Once Ankara recognized that overthrowing Assad was out of the picture on the long-term management of Turkish influence among the competing forces on its southern border Erdogan could be certain to remain a key player in the conflict—just on a losing trajectory instead of a winning one In spring 2016,he decided to seek a compromise with Russia in the hope that Moscow would be open to pragmatic solutions for Turkey’s border woes Ankara may well consider areas seized in northern Syria as assets to be swapped for action against the PKK Turkey has little to show for its new strategy but with the United States losing interest and his rebel allies losing the war He seems to have concluded that Turkey’s best bet is to simply muddle through and that giving in to a hard Russian bargain is ultimately going to be less damaging than to continue throwing good money after bad in northern Syria His country shares a porous 822-kilometer border with Syria and hosts more than three million refugees from the war: Turkey couldn’t insulate itself from Syrian politics even if it wanted to The Kingdom of Jordan entered the war against the Syrian government with some trepidation concerned with its own security but also mindful of its regional alliances having long depended on Western and Arab largesse to plug the holes in its budget and ensure internal stability Having received hundreds of thousands of refugees and witnessed increasing jihadi ferment inside the kingdom Amman was already frustrated with the way the war was going by 2014 The one-two punch of Iraq’s near-collapse at the hands of the Islamic State that summer and the Russian intervention in Syria in 2015 persuaded the kingdom to change course getting out in front of its American and Gulf Arab allies to refocus attention on border security Jordan has clearly given up on regime change in Syria and many of its opposition clients seem resigned to this fact Determined to secure and eventually normalize the situation on its northern border the kingdom continues to work pragmatically with Russians and Americans to negotiate a new modus vivendi with Assad showing no overt designs on southern Syria as long as stability is guaranteed When bad-cop Israel steps up its military posture and makes threatening noises on the Golan Heights good-cop Jordan offers border access and trade income the kingdom has repeatedly tried to leverage its influence over the rebels to curtail Iran’s presence in southern Syria telling Moscow and Damascus that this is key to broader reconciliation and perhaps also to resumed trade While Amman has its own reasons to keep Iran away from the border these demands appear to be informed by Israeli and American concerns: when bad-cop Israel steps up its military posture and makes threatening noises on the Golan Heights if Assad and Putin really can deliver a Hezbollah-free south The Arab Gulf states have since 2012 been the most generous supporters of the Syrian opposition but the constant feuding of regional arch-rivals Qatar and Saudi Arabia also served to undermine insurgent cohesion The resignation of Qatar’s emir in June 2013 which was quickly followed by a Saudi- and Emirati-backed coup d’état against the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt The badly bruised regime in Doha tempered its challenge to Saudi primacy and relations stabilized somewhat but crises continued to flare intermittently Though paid for by the Arab oil monarchies the arms shipments entered Syria through Turkey and Jordan the Gulf states have always been forced to work through regional allies and they also appear to have relied quite heavily on CIA coordination and facilitation “We remain committed to the Geneva process and support a credible political process that can resolve the question of Syria’s future,” a U.S. State Department official told me earlier this year. “Ultimately, this process, in our view, will lead to a resolution of Assad.”94 even those nations that long held out for a tougher line on Assad have fallen in behind Washington The Syrian opposition isn’t exactly being abandoned Support continues to flow to many armed groups and the exiles have been kept on hand for whenever whatever deal may become feasible As long as they adapt to their foreign sponsors’ agendas Syrian opposition factions may even increase their relevance as the conflict proceeds—for example Turkey will continue to have a need for local allies to contain its Kurdish enemies But there is no longer any serious international support for the opposition’s original raison d’être the idea that still animates its members and leaders: namely to rid Syria of the Assad dynasty The most recent meeting of a Friends of Syria-style group of “likeminded nations” took place on the sidelines of the 72nd UN General Assembly in September 2017. It gathered seventeen foreign ministers including representatives of all of the major anti-Assad stalwarts: Canada In a press conference after the meeting, U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of Near Eastern Affairs David Satterfield was asked what this actually means and whether the Syrian president could remain in office You no longer need to read between the lines to get it As far as the former Friends of Syria are concerned the war to overthrow Bashar al-Assad is over Tags: , , Aron Lund is a Swedish writer on Middle Eastern affairs and a fellow at Century International who has published several books and reports on Syrian politics 2010A senior Hezbollah official warned Sunday that the Lebanon-based guerilla group has a list of military targets inside Israel that they could attack in any future war.