the leaf blower war or the anti-'woke' backlash World Subscribers only Germany's Friedrich Merz is embracing pragmatism World Subscribers only Trump-Carney meeting: Canada seeks reconciliation World Subscribers only Friedrich Merz bets on two private sector converts to revive the German economy and reform the state World Subscribers only Founder of Sant'Egidio community fears next pope could undo Francis's legacy Opinion Subscribers only 'Russian gas and Europe is an old story that ended badly Economy Subscribers only Europe's steel industry flattened by crisis World Subscribers only How European countries plan to fund defense efforts France Subscribers only Macron announces citizens' convention on school schedules France Subscribers only 21 charged over French prison attacks as investigation narrows in on drug traffickers France Subscribers only French mosque stabber was driven by 'morbid fascination,' prosecutor says France Subscribers only At the trial of Kim Kardashian's robbers Videos World expos: From Paris 1855 to Osaka 2025 Videos How the Trump administration is attacking scientific research in the US Videos Tesla cars set on fire in Las Vegas as calls to boycott Musk's company grow worldwide Videos Can France's nuclear deterrent protect Europe Opinion Subscribers only 'The American dream is dying' Opinion Subscribers only John Bolton: 'The term chaos is commonly used to describe the top of the Defense Department' Opinion Subscribers only 'It is pointless to imagine a significant wave of American academics leaving' Magazine Subscribers only Tracking down the pianos taken from French Jews during the Nazi Occupation Magazine Subscribers only Eve Rodsky the American helping couples balance the mental load Magazine Subscribers only Desecration or more glory Joan Didion's private diaries are revealed Magazine Subscribers only For Jewish cartoonist Joann Sfar 2025."> Pixels Subscribers only Golden Owl solution is revealed but leaves players of 31-year hunt disappointed Pixels Subscribers only Secrets of decades-long Golden Owl treasure hunt to be revealed Lifestyle Inside Chanel's French leather workshops Culture Subscribers only The marvelous bronzes of Angkor on display at the Musée Guimet in Paris the small Lombardy town of 15,000 inhabitants and nine neighboring municipalities suddenly became Europe's first region to go into lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic People didn't pay much attention to the first signs The old lady who came coughing to the emergency room but who was reassured by the staff before being sent home with an encouraging smile The ever-increasing number of people with some kind of flu who flocked to the pharmacy A small article in the local newspaper about a lung disease spreading in the region and about which little was known The ambulance sirens people began to hear more often than usual at the bar and the increased comings and goings near the town's funeral parlor Parents rushing to school to get their children then running to supermarkets to stock up on supplies occasionally shattered by the sirens of ambulances invisible to those confined inside their homes but made all the more painful now that they knew why they echoed in the deserted city This is how Codogno's residents remember those crazy days in the winter of 2020 when the unthinkable broke the ordinariness of this provincial town residents often use "war" to describe what happened: "a war." the 50,000 or so residents of this small Lombardy town and nine neighboring communes were the first Europeans to slip into an unheard-of condition that would soon become the norm for the rest of the continent and which in Italy was called by the English word "lockdown." Codogno is where the country's first case of Covid-19 infection was recorded What remains is a lot of grief (at least 200 dead) memories that bring back tears and three pieces of steel erected in front of the local Red Cross headquarters the monument erected in memory of the victims of the pandemic and those who survived them On its base are inscribed three principles that sound like a motto: "resilience You have 73.47% of this article left to read Lecture du Monde en cours sur un autre appareil Vous pouvez lire Le Monde sur un seul appareil à la fois Ce message s’affichera sur l’autre appareil Parce qu’une autre personne (ou vous) est en train de lire Le Monde avec ce compte sur un autre appareil Vous ne pouvez lire Le Monde que sur un seul appareil à la fois (ordinateur En cliquant sur « Continuer à lire ici » et en vous assurant que vous êtes la seule personne à consulter Le Monde avec ce compte Que se passera-t-il si vous continuez à lire ici Ce dernier restera connecté avec ce compte Vous pouvez vous connecter avec votre compte sur autant d’appareils que vous le souhaitez mais en les utilisant à des moments différents Nous vous conseillons de modifier votre mot de passe Votre abonnement n’autorise pas la lecture de cet article merci de contacter notre service commercial You don't have permission to access the page you requested What is this page?The website you are visiting is protected.For security reasons this page cannot be displayed which had its official launch recently in Grosseto continues its journey with a productive day of training beginning at 2:30 pm followed by an exhibition game against Serie A Codogno at 5 pm on Wednesday National Baseball Hall of Famer and Team Italy Elite manager Mike Piazza will be assisted by coaches Gianguido Poma and delegation manager Riccardo Soglia will also be on hand to lend their assistance The following players have been selected to participate: (Photo of Team Italy pitcher Luca Capellano in action during a 2023 exhibition game in Bologna by PhotoBass) Reserved area Transparent Federation Privacy policy Copyright © 2022 FIBS (Federazione Italiana Baseball Softball) - Viale Tiziano 74 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial - Share with same attribution 4.0 (CC BY-NC-SA) which is available on the Internet Two years have passed since the night in February when Europe’s first coronavirus case was confirmed at a hospital in the small Italian town of Codogno.  dozens of positive cases were detected in the area located 50 kilometers (31 miles) south of Milan along with those of 10 neighboring towns were the first to be locked down Nearly 50,000 people were prohibited from venturing outside the so-called “zona rossa” (red zone) and were only allowed outdoors to go to the pharmacy to purchase medicine or to food shops it is still difficult to recall those moments I received a call from the prefect of Lodi announcing the first case of the coronavirus in the city hospital,” said Codogno mayor Francesco Passerini Then I spent all night talking on the phone with top regional and national health authorities It was the most nefarious time from all points of view our community experienced Swab tests were reserved for those who were hospitalized The positive rate was 100%,” said Passerini “In the nearly three months from Feb the date on which the holding of funerals started again 156 people died -- the highest number of deaths ever registered We had to use churches as a morgue to store coffins.” at that time the head of the emergency department and intensive care units (ICUs) at the hospitals in Lodi and Codogno recalled these moments “When a 38-year-old patient -- Mattia Maestri -- showed up at the hospital with severe bilateral pneumonitis we started to identify the cause of that illness So we immediately got the point that we were facing a very delicate and unusual situation,” said Storti “There was a huge gap between the number of patients with severe clinical conditions and the number of physicians working at the hospital in Codogno five more patients showed up presenting huge pneumonitis The three main hospitals in the area -- Lodi We hospitalized patients with critical care dependency in waves.” After a pick-up in cases was registered in January this year the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in the whole area is going down The strength of the fourth wave is weakening 32,000 cases have been detected and 110 people have died but the number of daily cases is falling day by day only 115 people tested positive for the virus “The vaccination campaign was very successful in Codogno since 87% of the population of our community has been double jabbed it would have come to have such a reduced impact from the contagion this year?” said Passerini “80% of the patients who recovered in our ICU are not vaccinated “The circulation of the virus is now lower than a few weeks ago But the fact that a very consistent part of the population is vaccinated will be important to contain the virus’s consequences in the near future.” Italy’s government has recently relaxed health measures and the people of Codogno have finally returned to the streets shops are open to all customers displaying their Green Pass at the door and the weekly outdoor market is full of people purchasing all sorts of goods Passerini is convinced that his community can celebrate the end of COVID “I can’t wait to organize a town party at which all members of our community can gather and celebrate together the liberation from COVID hugging each other as much as they can without wearing masks The municipal council has already allocated the budget.” small Italian town recalls moments when first case of COVID-19 in Europe was discovered Italy (AP) — The number of people in Italy infected with the new virus from China more than quadrupled Friday due to an emerging cluster of cases in the country’s north that prompted officials to order schools Many of the 14 new cases represented the first infections in Italy acquired through secondary contagion and brought the country’s total to 17 The cluster was located in a handful of tiny towns southeast of Milan in the Lombardy region said Lombardy regional health chief Giulio Gallera “This was foreseeable even if we hoped it wouldn’t have happened,” Gallera said The first to fall ill was a 38-year-old Italian who met with someone who had returned from China on Jan 21 without presenting any symptoms of the new virus That person was being kept in isolation and appears to present antibodies to the virus The 38-year-old is now hospitalized in critical condition Three patients at the hospital in Codogno where he went with flu-like symptoms on Feb who frequented the same cafe as the runner’s father as well as on 120 people he worked with in the research and development branch of Unilever in Casalpusterlengo Word of the contagion sparked fears throughout the region particularly given the closure of the emergency room at the Codogno hospital “We are old and we are very concerned,” said 76-year-old Codogno resident Carmelo Falcone Italian Health Minister Roberto Speranza said Italy is now seeing the same sort of “cluster” of cases that Germany and France have seen He signed an ordinance with Lombardy’s regional president outlining measures to contain the cluster to the 10 towns so far affected: Codogno which have between 1,000-15,000 residents each are located around 60 kilometers (37 miles) southeast of Milan Lombardy’s capital and Italy’s business center and other recreational activities throughout the region He defended the precautionary measures Italy took previously noting that Italy remains the lone European country to have barred flights to and from China “We had the highest measures in Europe,” he said The health ministry ordered anyone who came into direct contact with the victims to be quarantined for 14 days And it recommended others in the region stay home was working to identify military buildings hotels or other structures that could serve as isolation wards if necessary it has been demonstrated that this system (of self-isolation) helps in a substantial way to block the spread,” Lombardy regional president Attilio Fontana said “But we must not let ourselves be overcome by panic.” The Codogno hospital closed its emergency room and staff were seen wearing masks as movers brought in new beds and furniture as the quarantine got under way Rome’s infectious disease hospital is currently caring for three other people who were infected weeks ago including a Chinese couple from hard-hit Wuhan and an Italian who is now testing “persistently negative” for the virus after two weeks of anti-viral treatment Italians were having a hard time finding protective face masks A sampling of Milan pharmacies reported selling out out weeks ago as did a pharmacist in Codogno who said Italy had been sending masks to China for weeks © 1996 - 2025 NewsHour Productions LLC PBS is a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organization Subscribe to Here's the Deal with Lisa Desjardins Intensivist and anaesthesiologist in Codogno I diagnosed the first COVID-19 patient in Italy He was a 38-year-old healthy athlete with no comorbidities He arrived at the emergency room in Codogno on Saturday 18 February with fever He was given antibiotics but refused to stay at the hospital He returned that evening because he couldn’t breathe and had a very high fever He was admitted to internal medicine and given antibiotics and an oxygen mask they called me because he couldn’t breathe He was having a CT scan: his lungs looked terrible and he had an atypical pneumonia I decided to take him to my intensive care ward and intubate him There I talked with his wife – it was about 11:30 am – who said that two weeks ago he had attended a dinner with a colleague who I suspected a coronavirus infection and immediately called my chief to request a nasopharyngeal swab The patient did not meet the national criteria for coronavirus testing but because of his severe situation my decision was to quarantine the patient because the risk of not doing so was too high and we used PPE straight away; this quick reaction is why we were not infected I called the chief of the hospital who declared it a crisis situation The chief in Lombardy was contacted as were the politicians Codogno hospital was put in lockdown and emergencies were sent to Lodi Hospital I worked in quarantine for 36 hours because I did not want other doctors to be exposed self-isolated and waited for my test results I had no symptoms and the results came back negative I returned to the hospital and have been working every day since then I have never experienced anything like this before The work is relentless and long: up to 14 hours per day with no time to eat or drink There is no time to lose so we don’t want to stop But maybe once or twice a day we go for a drink of water then reversing the process when you get back We also work with the danger of being infected When you go home you continue to think about what you saw in the hospital You are afraid that this situation will never end You worry about everyone’s safety: your patients There is no break from it; you can’t relax we started with the patient’s family and everyone who had been in contact with him we tested patients who had been near him in the emergency room and the ward Now we only test people with symptoms because the numbers are too high to check everyone Mass testing slows down results for people who really need them and the swab gives a lot of false negatives – possibly around 20% A serum test with immunoglobulin is more sensitive overall but it does not detect the infection in the first few days Another possibility is lower respiratory tract aspiration but it’s invasive and cannot be performed in patients who are not intubated We reorganised our hospital and tripled our intensive care beds The striking thing about this disease is the huge numbers of patients We have too many patients to hospitalise them all so we treat the milder cases at home using telemedicine A lot of people are very sick and some of them do not overcome their serious respiratory crisis Families can’t come to the hospital to be with loved ones Access more COVID-19 resources and stories from the front lines Our mission: To reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease  Help centre Contact us © 2025 European Society of Cardiology Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker a small town in the northwestern region of Lodi people have been confined to their houses for more than six weeks But many aren’t anxious to see life go back to normal — at least Codogno was a town just like any other in the region pastel-colored houses and surrounding fields when the community of 16,000 people suddenly appeared on every front page in Europe as ground zero of Italy’s rapidly exploding outbreak — and one of the first towns on the Continent to be fully locked down The transition from normal to coronavirus lockdown happened almost overnight a 38-year-old local man showed up at the hospital in a severe condition and tested positive for the virus there were 40 new infections and two people had died Codogno and 10 nearby municipalities were shut down and formed part of a so-called red zone “The citizens were in shock,” Sara Boschiroli a local psychologist who started a hotline to support residents The rapid lockdown seems to have had a positive effect: The number of new cases is close to zero and pressure on hospitals has eased Italy soon became a case study for researchers in the rest of Europe and the United States trying to predict how the virus would affect their communities authorities are studying Codogno’s trajectory for clues on how to adapt their response in other regions which are some 15 days behind: How have lockdown measures affected the virus’s spread and how are people reacting to the strict restrictions The first question is a little easier to answer than the second The rapid lockdown seems to have had a positive effect: The number of new cases is close to zero and pressure on hospitals has eased — unlike in some municipalities in the province of Bergamo which also saw serious outbreaks but in an attempt to protect the economy were not turned into red zones during the initial stages of the epidemic we are no longer in full emergency,” Stefano Paglia the head of emergency services for Lodi and Codogno said in an interview with the newspaper Il Giorno only about 30 people have come to the emergency room for symptoms attributable to COVID-19 Just three weeks ago there were between 100 and 120 a day.” But while residents are relieved to be on the other side of the curve “We have been in lockdown for 44 days we are tired and above all we do not know when it will end,” said Monica Moretti a mother of two who was laid off from her job in a lawyer’s office at the start of the crisis but this is a conscious effort that I make to save others’ lives and my own My biggest fear is that another outbreak will explode and that our sacrifice will have been in vain.” many in Codogno are worried that lifting restrictions will spark another outbreak The road sign of the small Italian town of Codogno | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images The town’s official Facebook page is full of posts from people calling for even stricter measures People frequently call out their neighbors on social media for going on a run or taking their children to the park activities that are not allowed under the lockdown measures Some even report these types of infringements to the police The prevailing feeling in the town is of restlessness and anxiety fear that the curve has only flattened temporarily outweighs the desire for freedom “My patients are anxious and they feel that their lives are on hold,” said Boschiroli but “they fear that the others will infect them.” “You get used to being separated,” she added Some fear it won’t be possible to return to “normal” life at all we thought that in a month it would all be over the more I realize that it will be a long road,” said Stefano Oltolini a Codogno resident who works for NGO Soleterre “I feel we won’t get life back as we knew it.” Oltolini used to travel with his family all over Europe on low-cost flights but the idea of ​​not being able to do it makes me sad — not to travel means not to widen your mental boundaries.” The lockdown Other parts of Italy are showing similarly encouraging signs that the peak of the epidemic is either nearing or already behind them are anxious about how and when restrictions will ease up are bearing the brunt of the emergency measures and fear for the future of their ventures like some local supermarkets that have organized home deliveries,” said Laura Gozzini a journalist who has been following COVID-19 up close for Il Cittadino and some have stopped production for a month and a half.” “the €600 a month the government has allocated is ridiculous there is a great sense of responsibility.” The national government left Codogno in the lurch but they did not listen to us,” said Passerini which is in opposition to Italy’s ruling coalition distribute meals to the elderly and shop for those who cannot afford it.” Residents of Codogno at a local supermarket | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images “They demonstrated a respect for the rules that is moving.” Passerini — who said he still wanders the deserted streets of his town with a megaphone reminding people to stay home — has fielded calls from officials hoping to draw lessons from his administration’s handling of the situation The number of intensive care and emergency room admissions is falling even those who have been under lockdown the longest are reluctant to move forward too quickly Codogno’s residents are taking stock of the toll the virus has taken on their community “Right now we are a wounded city that mourns its dead,” said Gozzini “We have lost a generation of elderly people who made our history — like Giuseppe Vecchietti the founder of the local civil protection agency Codogno recorded 124 deaths in the month after its first confirmed case Confinement measures meant he couldn’t be with them when they died or hold funerals with those they left behind The only option is still to pray alone or in small groups at the cemetery The deserted railway station in Codogno | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images He recalled visiting a church in Codogno where 15 to 20 coffins were awaiting cremation he said has noticed that his community seems more peaceful and serene than at the start of the outbreak In his daily radio broadcasts and weekly live stream on Sundays he relays the same message: “To all the faithful I say: Have trust Many of the first victims of coronavirus were those charged with responding to it. Getting ill made the gaps in Italy’s health care system painfully clear. The Italian town of Codogno, and Lombardy region, has become synonymous with tragedy. Case to fatality ratio is worrying experts, who say political infighting and underfunded hospitals are keeping death rates high. Additional reporting by Emily Roe and Philip Pullella in Rome Writing by Philip Pullella; Editing by Janet Lawrence Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab , opens new tab Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. , opens new tabScreen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. © 2025 Reuters. All rights reserved your new go-to podcast to spice up your weekday mornings with relevant news and behind-the-scenes from Brussels and beyond From the economy to the climate and the EU's role in world affairs this talk show sheds light on European affairs and the issues that impact on our daily lives as Europeans Tune in to understand the ins and outs of European politics Dare to imagine the future with business and tech visionaries Deep dive conversations with business leaders Euronews Tech Talks goes beyond discussions to explore the impact of new technologies on our lives the podcast provides valuable insights into the intersection of technology and society Europe's water is under increasing pressure floods are taking their toll on our drinking water Join us on a journey around Europe to see why protecting ecosystems matters and to discover some of the best water solutions an animated explainer series and live debate - find out why Water Matters We give you the latest climate facts from the world’s leading source analyse the trends and explain how our planet is changing We meet the experts on the front line of climate change who explore new strategies to mitigate and adapt Codogno will mark one year since it recorded the first locally acquired case of COVID-19 in Italy in what became the first major outbreak in Europe The virus tore through the wider Lombardy region marking Italy as the new epicentre of the global pandemic that has now claimed more than two million lives -- including almost 100,000 in Italy The surge in cases took everyone by surprise we saw what we usually had in a year," he told AFP Codazzi saw the intensity of the virus on display after Friday February 21 -- when a 38-year-old man known as "Patient 1" was identified at the city's hospital after a doctor broke protocol to test him for coronavirus there were already bodies lined up outside the cemetery for burial talk of COVID-19 centres on shuttered businesses rent to pay and the umpteenth restriction on normal life Yet few can hear the sound of a siren without a pang the third-generation owner of the Central Bar on the main plaza early days of the lockdown imposed on Codogno and 10 other northern communities after the first case was identified immediately followed by the first two confirmed coronavirus deaths in Italy one of them a 77-year-old woman outside Codogno "I remember how silent it was," said Cavalli "Every three minutes you heard the sound of an ambulance with 154 deaths in March versus 49 in the same period a year earlier "They couldn't keep up," Passerini said of the cemetery workers who were eventually reinforced by the civil protection unit Caskets awaiting burial were stored in a shuttered church the cemetery was shut to the public and funeral notices were printed without dates to discourage potential mourners from breaking the quarantine to pay their respects The daily coffins awaiting custodian Codazzi frequently brought an unwelcome shock: "I said Codogno's Red Cross unit - with experience in Iraq and beyond - was zigzagging the district with almost 500 ambulance trips in March alone we don't know what we're going to find," said the head of emergency services family doctor Andrea Lozzi was working day and night to keep his patients out of the hospital Lozzi - whose name locals evoke with reverence for his tireless work - declines all interviews explaining to AFP: "You have to put your hands into your work But the doctor's Facebook page paints a picture of how Codogno slowly managed to emerge from the worst Today I could finally say to four of my patients Lozzi said he believed the virus had begun to wane in Codogno where locals wearing masks whizz around on bicycles making the most of the lifting of the lockdown cafes and hairdressers across Italy were allowed to open from Monday as the country slowly emerges from an economically-crippling national shutdown and a pandemic that has killed over 32,000 people there red and pink buildings that face onto Codogno's main square young Italians could be seen enjoying iced coffees while bells summoned people to mass at the large red-brick church "Discovering that the virus we'd heard so much about in China was here had a huge psychological impact," lawyer Maria Luisa Brizzolari told AFP as she looked back at the moment their lives changed The small in northern Italy was home to a 38-year-old man who came to be dubbed Italy's "patient one" The otherwise-healthy athlete turned up in Codogno hospital's emergency room on February 18 suffering a fever His pregnant wife also had it and his father would later die of it A flurry of other cases emerged in people who had frequented the hospital or local cafes Maestri had not travelled and still doesn't know where he picked up the virus On February 21 the government designated Codogno a so-called red zone and ordered it shuttered followed by nine other towns across Lombardy and the Veneto "It was a more ferocious war than the ones you fight where you can see your enemy," said pensioner Giancarlo Barcelesi "This time the enemy was invisible," he said Religious celebrations were allowed to begin again this week said his parishioners were finally beginning to breathe more easily because it would be forever linked in people's minds to the virus "I hear people want to come and see where it happened but Codogno is just a normal town like any other," she added disagreed and pointed out that the town had suffered a longer lockdown than the rest of Italy "Codogno will always be linked to the coronavirus but that could also be a way to remember the strength of the local population," she said Others were worried that the easing of strict anti-infection measures would allow the virus to begin to spread again "Everyone's afraid of having to go back into lockdown of it all happening again," said bartender Laura Sbardi Shopkeeper Cesare Gambazza was one of many who said people seemed "too relaxed" a 54-year-old nurse who worked with coronavirus patients earlier in the pandemic It was better during the lockdown," she said Residents of Lombardy describe deserted streets and panic after seven virus deaths People living in Italian towns under lockdown described a “surreal” and “fearful” atmosphere as a seventh person died of coronavirus on Monday and the number of confirmed cases rose to 229 Eleven towns across Lombardy, where the outbreak emerged suddenly on Friday, and Veneto have been quarantined for at least the next 15 days as Italian authorities scramble to contain the worst outbreak of the virus in Europe and the third worst in the world the overwhelming majority were elderly people who had also been suffering from other health issues The latest victim was an 80-year-old man in Milan About 50,000 residents in the towns under lockdown have been told to stay at home and avoid social contact shops and businesses – apart from chemists and some supermarkets – have been closed Residents are allowed to manoeuvre within the “red zone” for example going from one quarantined town to another to reach a supermarket that is permitted to stay open but they are not allowed to leave the quarantined territory People are also banned from entering the area unless they are health workers or those delivering essential supplies The centre of the outbreak is Codogno, the Lombardy town of almost 16,000 people where the first locally transmitted case in Italy Two reporters stand in front of the San Biagio church in Codogno Photograph: Luca Bruno/AP“It’s a surreal situation,” Enrico Bianchi “People are locked in their houses for fear of going out It is really strange to go around the town said: “We’re experiencing a bit of a panic Supermarkets have been stormed since last Friday My daughter was in contact with some friends of the first person to be infected in Codogno The first victim of coronavirus was Adriano Trevisan a 77-year-old from the Veneto town of Vo’ Euganeo who died in hospital while being treated for pneumonia One resident of the town of about 3,000 people all we can do is stay at home and wait and wait The 38-year-year old who was first identified as being infected is in intensive care at a hospital in Codogno He lives in nearby Castiglione d’Adda and plays in an amateur football team in Somaglia Both towns are under lockdown and his teammates all underwent tests “We are three days into the quarantine and there is a rigid system in place,” said Angelo Caperdoni “It was difficult to contain the panic at first especially as a lot of false news was circulating on social media that people believed to be true There is still panic regarding food provisions Many people went to Codogno yesterday to try and stock up.” said the town’s two mini-markets had been “besieged” “The important thing is to maintain calm,” he said “People have been racing to the supermarket to buy 20kg of pasta or 30kg of bread But if the shop is restocked and open for the next few days The virus has affected seven of Italy’s wealthiest regions: Lombardy Milan’s stock exchange plunged 4.5% on Monday as the country’s economic engine almost ground to a halt after cases of the illness were confirmed in the city Schools and universities have been closed across the regions and people have been advised to work from home More than 3,000 tests for coronavirus have been carried out over the last few days although authorities are still trying to identity “patient zero” – the person who brought the virus to the region came down with symptoms after attending a dinner at which there was a colleague who had recently returned from China “The peak in Italy is partly due to all the tests being done,” said Roberta Siliquini a former president of Italy’s higher health council “We have found positive cases in people who probably had few or no symptoms and who may have overcome the virus without even knowing it.” The Italian government has been criticised for hastily cancelling flights to and from China as people have been able to fly to other European cities and enter Italy from there Mattia Maestri waits for the start of a 180-kilometer relay race whose case confirmed one of the world’s deadliest outbreaks was underway is taking part in a 180-kilometer relay race as a sign of hope for COVID victims after he himself recovered from weeks in intensive care was suited up Saturday for the start of the two-day race between Italy’s first two virus hotspots where Italy’s first official COVID death was recorded the same day Mattia Maestri adjusts his face mask prior to the start of a 180-kilometer relay race Mattia Maestri answers reporters’ questions prior to the start of a 180-kilometer relay race poses for a group photo prior to the start of a 180-kilometer relay race Runners pose prior to the start of a 180-kilometer relay race Italy (AP) — Italy’s coronavirus “Patient No 1,” whose case confirmed one of the world’s deadliest outbreaks was underway is taking part in a 180-kilometer (112-mile) relay race as a sign of hope after he himself recovered from weeks in intensive care was suited up Saturday for the start of the two-day race between Italy’s first two virus hot spots where Italy’s first official COVID-19 death was recorded the same day Maestri said the race was a “beautiful initiative” uniting the two virus-ravaged towns and the hard-hit swath of territory between them He said he was thrilled to even be alive to participate “I feel very lucky,” he said at the starting line Maestri had first gone to the hospital in his hometown of Codogno with flu-like symptoms Feb He returned the next day after deteriorating and the doctor on duty decided to test him for the new coronavirus even though doing so went beyond the protocol for testing set by the Health Ministry at the time: Maestri hadn’t traveled to China or been in contact with a known positive case 21 was the first confirmed case of domestic transmission in Italy evidence that the virus was circulating silently among the local population Italy would become the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe where it still has the second-highest number of COVID-19 deaths after Britain The Italian government immediately quarantined Codogno and 10 nearby towns and imposed a lockdown in Vo’Euganeo where on the same day as Maestri’s positive result authorities confirmed the first death of someone who tested positive post-mortem are united today in hope,” said Patrizia Baffi a Lombardy region councilor who was on hand for the start of Saturday’s race Maestri spent nearly three weeks in intensive care and weeks more hospitalized during which time his own father died his wife — who had tested positive but without serious complications — gave birth to their first child Maestri has since recovered and said Saturday that he felt well enough to participate in the race A marathoner and avid soccer player before he got sick Maestri is taking the final 10-kilometer leg of the relay and is scheduled to cross the finish line in Vo’ on Sunday Maestri expressed concern about continued surge of infections in Europe — on Saturday Italy added another 1,869 infections and 17 deaths to its official COVID death toll He urged Italians to observe the three rules of social distancing face masks and frequent handwashing to keep the virus under control “I think if we observe those two to three simple rules they have given us we will continue to see results in Italy,” he said Maestri still marveled about his recovery — he said the experience was “like a movie” — and how his case became the wake-up call for Europe and I didn’t even know at the time,” he said of his infection “I found out only a month later when I got out.” He said one day he’ll tell his daughter how her father became known as Patient No But he added: “I still have time to think about it.” We argued in our previous column (Codogno and Van den Noord 2020a) that a euro area safe asset – swapped against national sovereigns on banks’ and the ECB’s balance sheets – and a centralised fiscal capacity render macroeconomic stabilisation policies much more effective in the face of the outbreak of COVID-19 hitting the economy This would be the first-best solution in our view not only for the periphery but also the core we acknowledge that it may not be politically and technically feasible to adopt it with the urgency required by the current situation It looks more likely that the member states of the euro area would agree on a package revolving around conditional support of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to hard-hit countries This opens the way for the ECB to launch unlimited purchases of the national debt of countries in distress under the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme the current ECB programmes are mostly limited to year-end and a total ticket of €1.1 trillion we compare three scenarios which we have tried to quantify with our empirically calibrated model for the euro area (Codogno and Van den Noord 2020b) we assume that all measures that have been announced by the member states and the ECB are implemented we compare these scenarios with a third scenario in which a safe asset and fiscal capacity at the centre are created The numerical results reported in Table 1 are surrounded with wide margins of uncertainty for at least three reasons: (i) we have entered uncharted territory which our model (or any model) may able to capture only to an extent (ii) the quantification of the policy measures is necessarily crude due to scant information on the fine detail and (iii) the size and persistence of the corona shock is still ambiguous that the results give an impression of the direction and orders of magnitude of the effects Table 1 Absorbing the COVID-19 shock: three scenarios Note: Per cent or percentage point changes relative to a steady-state without shocks It comprises a symmetric supply shock of -5% of GDP and a flight-to-safety shock to core sovereign bonds yields of -300 basis points (bps) We assume the demand shock to outweigh the supply shock because the latter is expected to be more short-lived (as eventually lockdowns will be lifted although disruptions may continue for a while) the demand shock will be more persistent due to the need to restore the unsettled balance sheets in the private sector In the first scenario (labelled ‘actual policy’ in the table) we assume: (i) fiscal stimulus of 10% of GDP in both the core and the periphery (ii) guarantees on bank loans entailing a +5% symmetric shock to bank lending broadly in line with the size of the aggregate supply shock (iii) an effective rate cut of -25 bps by the ECB (the rate on refinancing operations was cut from -0.5% to -0.75%) (iv) asset purchases by the ECB of 10% of GDP output collapses -10% in the core and -20% in the periphery Core yields rise 100 bps as the primary deficit is up 15 percentage points (ppts) of GDP and periphery yields go through the roof by 1,300 bps with the primary deficit soaring 20 ppts Periphery bank credit is slashed by three-quarters (the number should not be taken literally and should be interpreted to imply default) and drops slightly in the core we have run the same set of shocks and policies as in the first scenario but now including OMT purchases by the ECB worth 30% of periphery GDP That boils down to a shock onto periphery yields of -300 bps equivalent to the flight-to-safety shock on core yields of -300 bps so that the increase in the spread is eliminated on impact output now shrinks by ‘only’ about -3½% in the core and -4½% in the periphery The primary deficits and debt ratios in both economies rise by the order 10-15 ppts Bank credit remains broadly in check in both economies This scenario clearly shows how crucial OMT is to keep the spreads in check and prevent financial turmoil that would otherwise reignite the banks-sovereign doom loop in the periphery we introduce (i) a safe asset which is swapped for national bonds on banks’ and the ECB’s balance sheets (for more details see Codogno and Van den Noord 2020a); and (ii) a fiscal expansion at the centre of 5% of GDP financed by the issuance of the single safe asset over and above the national fiscal expansions of 10% of GDP; while (iii) the -25 bps rate cut by the ECB is left in place The asset purchases (including under OMT) are abandoned as are the guarantees on bank credit (since the safe asset would take over that role) the public debt ratios would rise by ‘only’10 ppts and bank credit would remain at its pre-crisis level The yield on the safe asset would fall in line with the relevant policy rate change of -25 bps though it would help to discipline fiscal behaviour in the periphery A concern expressed by some (Bini Smaghi 2020) is that the creation of a euro area fiscal capacity would involve a massive transfer of sovereignty from the member states to the centre always be accountable to the Council and would obtain ‘instrument independence’; for instance with regard to the maturity structure of bonds to be issued the purpose of fiscal policy at the center in our proposal – and what makes it distinct from ‘Coronabonds’ proposals – is primarily to rebalalance the policy mix away from monetary policy without automatically resorting to fiscal tranfers across member states This does not rule out ‘solidarity’ in exceptional circumstances but it would be left to the discretion of the Council and would not involve a transfer of sovereignty Our simulations suggest that launching OMT over and above the policy measures that have already been decided would play a crucial role in the face of the outbreak of COVID-19 hitting the euro area economy with a safe asset and centralised fiscal capacity macroeconomic stabilisation would become even more effective the ‘core’ and ‘periphery’ of the euro area would gain the gains would be larger in our preferred scenario in which the crisis is met by the creation of a euro area safe asset and fiscal capacity Bini Smaghi, L (2020), “Corona bonds – great idea but complicated in reality” Codogno, L and P J van den Noord (2020a), “Covid-19: Eurozone safe asset and fiscal capacity are needed now” A stylised model with fiscal capacity and a Eurobond in the Eurozone” Amsterdam Centre for European Studies Research Paper (forthcoming) '+n.escapeExpression("function"==typeof(o=null!=(o=r(e,"eyebrowText")||(null!=l?r(l,"eyebrowText"):l))?o:n.hooks.helperMissing)?o.call(null!=l?l:n.nullContext||{},{name:"eyebrowText",hash:{},data:t,loc:{start:{line:28,column:63},end:{line:28,column:78}}}):o)+" \n '+(null!=(o=c(e,"if").call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2PreText"):l,{name:"if",hash:{},fn:n.program(32,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:63,column:20},end:{line:63,column:61}}}))?o:"")+"\n"+(null!=(o=(c(e,"ifAll")||l&&c(l,"ifAll")||n.hooks.helperMissing).call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Text"):l,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Link"):l,{name:"ifAll",hash:{},fn:n.program(34,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:64,column:20},end:{line:70,column:30}}}))?o:"")+" Eleanor Biles and Philip Pullella in Rome; Writing by Philip Pullella; Editing by Janet Lawrence Italy (AP) — The morning bell Monday marked the first entrance to the classroom for the children of Codogno since Feb when panicked parents were sent to pick up their children after the northern Italian town gained notoriety as the first in the West to record local transmission of the coronavirus While all of Italy’s 8 million school students endured Italy’s strict 2½-month lockdown few suffered the trauma of the children of Codogno whose days were punctuated by the sirens of passing ambulances “Many lost grandparents,” said Cecilia Cugini So while the reopening of Italian schools marks an important step in a return to pre-lockdown routine the step bears more symbolic weight in the 11 towns in Lombardy and Veneto that were the first to be sealed off as coronavirus red zones Codogno Mayor Francesco Passerini said the town of 17,000 has had virtually no new cases for months now He said they have spared no effort in working with school administrators to provide maximum protection to the city’s 3,500 students MORE: Can Italian tourism industry survive the pandemic? so that all we lived can be relegated to memory,” Passerini said nursery school children must have their temperatures taken at drop-off but are not required to wear masks parents are asked to monitor temperatures at home and masks are required In schools where distance cannot be maintained older students will have to keep masks on all day Schools throughout the country struggled to identify new classroom spaces In a country where years of spending cuts have left many school buildings run down administrators have jumped at the chance to take care of long-overdue repairs in some places delaying school openings while work is finished School and local officials in Codogno worked tirelessly to ensure the smoothest return possible for students masked elementary students waited in spaces designated by red tape to be called to class Two classes were shifted from the more crowded of Codogno’s two elementary schools to ensure proper distancing “Parents were not happy but we have dedicated a shuttle bus to bring the children back and forth to address some of the discomfort,” Cugini said MORE: After Italy’s pandemic nightmare, economy falters — and poverty spreads receive 230 new desks commissioned by the government oversized desks to allow students to maintain enough distance to remove masks Art and technology classes requiring more working room will rotate through the middle school’s auditorium The city also repaired the middle school roof and upgraded the bathrooms as part of preparations — both projects welcome and overdue “It is an emblematic moment for us,” Cugini said “It is important to create an atmosphere so the students can experience the emotions of finding themselves back in school without being distracted by other things.” there was no back-to-school shopping for new backpacks: the old ones were fine as they had lain unused for the four months of distance learning last winter and spring But there was the usual sense of anticipation to be reunited with classmates the renewal that comes with every school year — tinged now by a not-so-distant concern that the COVID-19 back-to-school project will bring an uptick in contagion even here While there are many rules governing classroom behavior “We have doubts about how to react to a cold or a coughing attack — that is an unknown for everyone,” Baggi said Blanchard (2019) argued that higher debt-to-GDP levels might have become more sustainable than in the past: “When the safe interest rate is less than the growth rate […] both the fiscal and welfare costs of debt may then be small smaller than is generally taken as given in current policy discussions” (Blanchard 2020) the possibility of persistently and structurally higher inflation and interest rates undermine residual hopes for a ‘different paradigm.’ In today’s uncertain environment central banks have little choice but to frontload interest rate rises in an attempt to maintain credibility and avoid de-anchoring expectations and a price-wage spiral The critical consequence is a sudden and sharp rise in the expected long-term cost of sovereign borrowing Our new paper (Corsetti and Codogno 2022) argues that we are back to the old debt-sustainability fundamentals the ECB implemented quantitative easing by buying bonds in excess of the government’s financing needs ECB actions were de facto helping troubled high-debt countries by keeping low government bond yield spreads vis-a-vis perceived risk-free German benchmarks these interventions remained aligned with the ECB’s mandate to maintain price stability A widespread argument was that the ECB could even err on the side of caution and aim for an inflation overshooting With the central bank heavily buying government paper financial markets could no longer price the risk of default by relying on traditional indicators since their metric was heavily distorted We argue that financial markets were under ‘anaesthetic’: national debt was sustainable by definition as the central bank committed to purchase it in large amounts The need to counteract the spike in inflation forces the ECB To the extent that it may also require ‘quantitative tightening,’ yields and spreads may grow higher over time Along with its renewed commitment to price stability the ECB aims to avoid fragmentation in the transmission of monetary policy to maintain government bond spreads within certain undisclosed thresholds the ECB stated: “Redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio are being reinvested flexibly with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic” (8 September 2022) it set up a new Transmission Protection Instrument “to counter unwarranted disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate” These policies may well be able to maintain the component of government bond spreads related to credit risk under control We carry out our comparison graphically in Figure 1 The lines in the figure show how the debt-to-GDP evolves (on the y axis) as a function of the existing level of debt The slope of the lines is given by the difference between the real interest rate and the growth rate The starting position of the debt ratio is point A Consider the world before the recent inflation spike According to the academic and policy views arising before the COVID-19 pandemic and after the EU COVID-19 recovery package (NextGenerationEU growth was supposed to be supported for several years by policy measures while inflation was due to return to target gradually Monetary policy could have reverted to neutral rates over time even erring on the cautious side as the inflation risk was perceived to be low With the real interest rate below real GDP growth the slope of the debt growth line in the graph was expected to remain negative the scenario underlying Blanchard’s argument To the extent that a prolonged increase in energy prices makes expected inflation persistently high and potential growth lower the real interest rate would move above the real rate of GDP growth With the slope of the debt growth line turning positive unless the government runs a primary surplus (a negative  that is large enough to offset the interest rate/growth dynamics In a scenario in which the government has little control over the sign of it would be up to fiscal policy to stabilise the debt ratio by reducing the primary deficit or moving into a surplus position This would shift the line in the graph downward without altering the underlying debt dynamics (i.e the economy will stay on a path of an ever-increasing debt ratio Figure 1 The government debt ratio in the old and new world stabilising the debt ratio would become much more challenging if financial markets were to change their expectations about long-term equilibrium real interest rates and potential GDP growth A change in the long-term view would have immediate repercussions with a call for a much higher risk premium on government bonds of vulnerable countries forcing some policy reaction in the form of tighter fiscal policy This would be in a context where some fiscal support for cyclical and structural reasons would instead be highly needed As higher sovereign spreads drive up the borrowing costs of firms and households and deteriorate domestic financial conditions and the resilience of financial intermediaries the country would enter a ‘bad equilibrium’ where adverse expectations are ex post validated by a persistent downturn plagued by continuing financial turmoil To be clear: a stable path forward would still be possible stability would crucially rest on (a) achieving higher potential GDP growth by the end of the NG-EU programme and (b) maintaining yield spreads under control by credible budgetary policies in a cooperative euro-area-wide policy setting the Italian government projections foresaw a sizeable rebound in GDP in 2021 (6.0%) with growth remaining well above par for the whole projection horizon (4.7% in 2022 This growth was partly due to the NG-EU programme expected to produce a sizeable demand stimulus for several years investments and structural reforms were expected to boost potential growth to 1.5% over the medium term (i.e and the ECB had not yet considered increasing rates the nominal interest rate was expected at 2.2% in 2021; deflated using the projected GDP deflator of 1.7% The debt ratio was expected to decrease from 155.6% of GDP in 2020 to 146.1% in 2024 driven by a decline in the primary deficit from 6.0% of GDP in 2021 to 0.8% in 2024 The same exercise using data from Italy’s official planning document unveiled in September 2022 introduces a key change While the debt ratio in 2024 is still projected to decline (to 140.9%) and real GDP growth remains at 1.5% in 2025 the nominal interest rate rises to 2.8% and the GDP deflator to 1.9% implying a real interest rate on public debt of 0.9% but the debt ratio keeps (more slowly) improving expected to swing from a deficit to a surplus of 0.7% at the end of the forecast period Is it reasonable to expect real interest rates to remain so low over the long run especially considering the sizeable 2.5% credit spreads already recorded at the time of our writing Suppose that inflation (measured by the GDP deflator) remains at the ECB’s target of 2.0% over the long run real GDP at 1.3% (a revised estimate of potential growth by the government assuming 0.6% potential before COVID-19 plus a 0.5 percentage point effect of extra investments and a 0.3 percentage point effect of reforms) and real interest rates at 1.0% plus a 2.0% risk premium so that real borrowing costs would rise to 3.0% Stabilising the debt ratio at its 2024 projected level of 140.9% would require a sustained primary surplus Italy is at risk of entering a ‘bad equilibrium,’ whereas a higher risk premium driving up the real rate would require potentially self-defeating tightening policies that may end up worsening near-term economic activity and the fiscal outlook of the country A downturn with fiscal and financial stress given the evidence of a strong correlation between private and public borrowing costs A bad equilibrium could easily turn into an unsustainable trend for the debt ratio (e.g The macroeconomic environment and mood prevailing in 2020 and the beginning of 2021 were somewhat unique and are over the global macroeconomic outlook has changed completely No major central banks can tolerate higher inflation and so all need to raise their policy rates Not only is this required by their inflation-fighting mandate would allow inflation and inflation expectations to drift higher It would end up raising long-term borrowing costs via an inflation premium (requiring painful disinflationary policies in the future) the adverse effects of the current terms-of-trade shock magnify debt sustainability risks for both public and private debt Historical evidence suggests that these premia tend to increase exponentially rather than linearly exacerbating the rise in the cost of borrowing the ECB deliberately compressed risk premia with quantitative easing risk premia are no longer anchored by the early QE policies pursued by the ECB The potential consequences may be mitigated by the NGEU’s money cheaply financing the most vulnerable countries and the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument the success of these policies is most likely predicated on the ability of member states to enhance their policy credibility and adjust their primary balances A sustainable fiscal outlook will rest on two pre-conditions over the next few years reforms and investments should be accelerated to benefit from returns within a reasonably short time horizon Resources should be devoted to increasing productive capacity and pursue efficiency in their utilisation Raising potential growth sooner than previously projected will be crucial to sustainability a prudent fiscal policy and a smart macro prudential policy are of the essence to reduce the risks of sudden shifts in financial market sentiment that would push government debt into a ‘bad equilibrium.’ Bénassy-Quéré, A and B Weder di Mauro (2020), “Europe in the time of COVID-19: A new eBook” American Economic Review 109(4): 1197-1229 “Europe should throw out its fiscal rulebook” “Capitale e investimenti pubblici in Italia: effetti macroeconomici” Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 520 “The sustainability of the Italian public debt a safe asset and a fiscal capacity for the Eurozone” in Rivista di Politica Economica dedicated to “Public debt in Italy: why it is a problem and how to get out of it” Codogno, L and G Corsetti (2020), “Post-pandemic debt sustainability in the EU/euro area: This time may (and should) be different” Sudden shifts underlying factors may push high-debt countries into a bad equilibrium” “Debt Sustainability Analysis: State of the Art” requested by the ECON Committee of the European Parliament Economic Governance Support Unit Directorate-General for Internal Policies of the Union “The Mystery of the Printing Press: Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crisis” Journal of European Economic Association 14(6): 1329-1371 Debrun, X, J D Ostry, T Willems and C Wyplosz (2019), “The art of assessing public debt sustainability” Guerrieri, V, G Lorenzoni, L Straub and I Werning (2020), “Lack of demand during the coronavirus crisis” “Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?” “Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries “Mimicking a Buffer Fund for the Eurozone” Verwey, M, S Langedijk and R Kuenzel (2020), “Next Generation EU: A recovery plan for Europe” The Local Europe ABVästmannagatan 43113 25 StockholmSweden Please log in here to leave a comment the outcome of a nasal swab in a tiny hospital in Codogno foretold the disaster that was about to engulf Europe was the first confirmed COVID-19 patient in Italy who had not traveled to China he was infected locally — a sign the coronavirus was spreading rapidly in the country he is the symbol of the beginning of everything — but he does not feel like that,” said Giulio Costa a psychologist who lives near Codogno and knows Maestri well “He was sorry to read that some newspapers described him as reckless because he had a fever and he had gone around infecting half of the world.” No one knew then what we know now: that the coronavirus was already circulating in Europe and would soon devastate the Continent killing hundreds of thousands of people and shutting down the economy Maestri might not have received a test at all: At the time medical protocol didn’t require a test for people with COVID-19 symptoms who had not recently traveled to China or come into contact with a known positive case Within days of the result, however, part of northern Italy would become Europe’s first so-called red zone. Strict lockdown measures confined people to their homes preventing them from traveling between towns and medical staff went to battle against a virus that would soon overwhelm hospitals across the Continent Codogno, and the surrounding region of Lombardy life in Codogno has mostly gone back to the way it was hairdressers and shops are open until 6 p.m. But the trauma of the past year has left scars on the community On the wall of an out-of-use petrol station near the town’s entrance someone has drawn a mural depicting Wonder Woman in a lab coat She is wearing a stethoscope around her neck and a face mask with the Italian flag — an homage to the health care staff who were thrust into the front lines in the chaotic early days of the pandemic Some 326 Italian doctors and health staff have died of COVID-19 since last year “This year weighed on us,” said Francesco Passerini Although no businesses have been forced to close family funds to pay employees and avoid disaster,” said Passerini people smile from behind their masks and shrug their shoulders when asked how they are doing “We would never have thought we would be the first to experience such a thing,” said Franca “We were at home watching the world from our windows and for the first time the world had noticed us All of the televisions stations were filming us Those first 18 days of strict confinement felt like something akin to the aftermath of the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl The memory of those first few weeks is perhaps most vivid for the doctors who treated the first coronavirus patients all patients in the area were transferred to a polyclinic in the neighboring town of Pavia “Mattia arrived at night,” Francesco Mojoli the head of intensive care at the San Matteo polyclinic in Pavia It was the end of February and “for a few days we were the only hospital that treated COVID-19 cases.” staff set aside only five intensive care beds for COVID-19 patients Mojoli became visibly overcome with emotion when he considered what had taken place over the past year What he thought was just a small outbreak would very quickly turn into something much harder to handle especially for the younger anesthesiologists,” he said to see so many people die one after the other “We learned how to do it,” said Raffaele Bruno the director of infectious diseases at San Matteo But he and others remain on high alert, he said, given new variants of the virus are circulating on the Continent, and Italy still counts around 300 daily deaths. It is impossible to forget the devastating impact of the virus, and the many lives it has ruined, Bruno added. He often thinks of a family that he met in March last year. “It was a mother, father and daughter, all three positive for COVID-19. They were hospitalized with us. The two parents died and the poor girl went home alone.” For most people in Codogno, the biggest challenge — as it is elsewhere — is so-called pandemic fatigue. Costa describes it as similar to the exhaustion felt by people “who care for an elderly parent, or a cancer patient who has relapsed, or a relative with a chronic disease.” The future feels dark and hopeless. If there was a sense of solidarity and closeness during the first wave of the lockdown, when people clapped for health care workers every night and looked out for one another, “today a sense of tiredness and fear prevails, especially in people who have lost a family member and in those economically affected by COVID.” But the past year also gave people reasons for optimism, said Fausto Baldanti, who is head of virology at San Matteo. “We have seen a solidarity between colleagues that we could not imagine, and we have seen that science works miracles,” he said, adding that getting a vaccine ready for use in 10 months is an unprecedented accomplishment that gives him hope for the future. In Codogno, many wonder if the heroine drawn on the wall at the town’s entrance is not in fact Malara, the anesthesiologist at San Matteo who tested Maestri for COVID-19 when his condition rapidly deteriorated, saving his life. She brushes off the idea, saying: “I don’t feel like a hero. I just did my job, the same as my colleagues.” She still keeps in touch with Maestri, she said. “He is a person with whom I shared a dramatic phase of our history.” In the first few weeks in which Maestri was intubated, the country looked on in anguish, hoping for his recovery and anxious about what this disease could do to a healthy young person. His recovery several weeks later would be an important symbol — a first sign of hope, despite the many more months of darkness to come. When he opened his eyes, Maestri found out that his father had died of COVID and felt an enormous sense of guilt about having potentially infected him, said Costa. Only the birth of his little girl, his first child, restored his trust in the future. Before Maestri was intubated, he told Malara: “I will fight for my daughter who I have to see. Help me with this too.”    Amid fear and anger, pandemic-skeptics are accusing doctors of lying about the virus. had a hunch that something was different about a patient in the intensive care ward.Their decision to take matters into their own hands wound up triggering a national emergency - they had identified the first case of COVID-19 in the area that would become Europe's first lockdown zone.A previously healthy 38-year-old man had gone to the hospital with a high fever He refused to be admitted so was given antibiotics and went home.He returned that evening in worse shape and was put on oxygen Mattia's wife told doctors that a few weeks earlier he had gone to dinner with a colleague who had been in China.But Mattia did not fit national criteria for mandatory coronavirus testing because he had not been in China personally."I had to explain many times why I wanted to perform it (a COVID swab) anyway," said Malara 39."Doctor Malara and myself decided to break protocol," Ricevuti recalled They performed the nasal swab and sent it to a lab in Milan.At 9:30 p.m The test was positive."We couldn't believe it We thought this was a far away problem that had to do with China and not just from that February 20th but probably from much earlier," Ricevuti became the "capital" of the first "red zone" in Europe to be locked down    "In the beginning I hoped - we all hoped - that the virus would be limited to a few people," said Malara "But after a few hours a lot of people came to the emergency room with the same symptoms and after a few days it was clear that it had spread into the population."Since then 95,000 people have died of COVID-19 in Italy the second-highest toll in Europe after Britain and the seventh-highest in the world.Both women are still treating COVID-19 patients."This is our mission We cannot really retreat," Ricevuti said facing the difficulties and the changes that life presents us .. you need a lot of physical and mental strength."Additional reporting by Emily Roe children's play has not echoed in the main piazza of the town of Codogno overlooked by a statue of the town's patron St the silence has been pierced increasingly less often by ambulance sirens which in the early days roared through every couple of hours The northern town that recorded Italy's first coronavirus infection has offered a virtuous example to fellow Italians now facing an unprecedented nationwide lockdown — that by staying home Infections of the new virus have not stopped in Codogno which still has registered the most of any of the 10 Lombardy towns in Italy's original red zone In the town of 16,000 located near the Po River about 60 kilometers (40 miles) southwest of Milan most everyone knows someone among the nearly 200 infected with the virus When news went out this week that there had been zero new infections in the previous 24 hours media hopes of eradication were exaggerated But the trend appears to be real — and one of the reasons that led Premier Giuseppe Conte to impose a series of draconian new measures across the countries this week Five new infections were registered Wednesday compared with 35 a day at the start of the outbreak who like most people in the town wears a mask and who has mourned at a distance with friends who lost their fathers but we have every possibility of winning," Passerini said who went physically into battle for our freedom we are being required to show responsibility — responsibility and calm." Those whose lives the virus has claimed include Umberto Falchetti who helped turn the MTA car components business founded by his father into one of the city's major industrial concerns He died within a week of coming down with a fever residents have grown accustomed to their isolation from the world They mostly wear masks when they do go out — not as a requirement but "as an act of attention above all to avoid contagion to others," Passerini said Handshake greetings are replaced with new forms of acknowledgment — a steady gaze "We need to make it our own," the mayor said of the still-awkward passage of customs residents steadfastly abide by the 1-meter distance rule a pharmacy to have their prescriptions filled While the rest of Italy has had to adjust to rapidly changing measures the pace within Codogno has never really changed since the first diagnosis was confirmed on Feb 21 — not even when police and army barricades came down earlier this week when Lombardy became one big containment zone there was some concern over the risk that all of the sacrifices were in vain," Passerini said of the opening "We are continuing with our virtuous behaviors with the hope that this emergency ends as soon as possible not only in Codogno but in the rest of the country and Europe." So while people can no longer attend Mass or swap news at a café a local parish radio station has stepped in to partially fill that gap along with bulletins from the civil protection agency and messages from the mayor Trains no longer stop at the station -- no one is going anywhere anyway And shops for non-essentials like apparel and bicycles that opened long enough to post signs instructing customers that they must wear a mask to enter "Codogno has been in the spotlight since the very first day," said Rosy Ronisvalle who stopped at a newsstand her way home from the pharmacy this week to pick up a magazine for her 4-year-old daughter But it has been with great personal sacrifice Ronisvalle improvised meals after shops — including supermarkets — were ordered closed Feb and arranged play for her 2-year-old son and 4-year-old daughter who has recently finished chemotherapy and who had been scheduled for urgent surgery until the lockdown made travel outside the red zone impossible we don't have time to lose,'" Ronisvalle said there is a lot of time to lose because of the demands on hospitals There are not enough beds in intensive care for her obviously she would have to go into intensive care." They are now awaiting surgery to be scheduled "This is just another problem that coronavirus can bring to families," she said In Italy, the temptation to go back in time, or shut the door to Europe and globalisation is strong, especially after a quarter of a century of poor economic performance, argue Lorenzo Codogno and Giampaolo Galli which gained an outright majority in Parliament in the country’s recent elections together with the threats arising from globalisation instead of arguing for an even bolder reform agenda It posted the lowest growth rates among the developed countries for about a quarter of a century This anomaly can help to understand why the anti-establishment forces which have also reaped successes almost everywhere in the Western world gained a majority in the latest Italian elections It also helps to understand the economic policy dilemma facing the country today Although the link between the economic crisis and the success of anti-establishment parties is not mechanical it is evident that these same parties have denounced the many aspects of deteriorated social conditions and that this has been the key to their success The elections produced a  good result for the Five Star Movement a populist anti-establishment party that did not exist ten years ago and is now the first party in the Italian Parliament with 32.7% of the popular vote and 35.2% of the seats in the Lower House which is an anti-immigrant anti-euro far-right grouping that used to be in favour of devolution for the North (Northern League) and now has ambitions for the whole country It got 17.4% of popular votes and 19.8% of the seats in the Lower House Together with other more moderate centre-right parties controls only 19.4% of the seats in the Lower House the President of the Republic will try to broker a deal to form a new government Italy’s per capita GDP stands at 106 if we put 1995 equal to 100 which means that Italy has barely grown over almost a quarter of a century All the other OECD countries have done better including the wretched Greece that stands at 116 which corresponds to average annual growth of 1.4% over 1995-2017 broadly the same growth recorded in the United States and the policies introduced in recent years but Italy is one of the very few OECD countries that have not yet managed to recover to pre-crisis levels GDP per capita has contracted by 8.2% compared to 2007 Almost all other countries have largely exceeded pre-crisis levels The Eurozone net of Italy stands at 5.0 percentage points above pre-crisis levels In each of the years between 2015 and 2017 Italy recorded GDP growth about one percentage point below the other Eurozone countries Italy’s regional divide is huge and has not narrowed in recent years Most economists trace back such a poor performance to Italy’s difficulty in adapting its productive structure and public administration to the challenges of globalisation technological innovation and the single currency the facts do not support the idea that the harsh social conditions of Italy are the consequence of so-called ‘neo-liberal’ reforms that would have increased inequalities and favoured the ‘usual suspects’ Italy is one of the few countries in which the Gini inequality index has remained almost unchanged in the last quarter of a century Even more noteworthy is the fact that the share of labour on manufacturing value added and has returned to the record levels of the early seventies According to the majority of economists and international organisations Italy suffers because the reforms of recent years have not been enough to restart the broken engine of the economy This is because they have not managed to address the underlying issues forcefully and partly because of insufficient implementation and the typically delayed impact of structural reforms the perception of voters ― especially those who voted for anti-establishment parties ― is precisely the opposite the missing reforms are not at the origin of the troubles they are proposing to roll back the recent labour market and pension reforms Probably the lack of feel-good factors and the sense of insecurity and uncertainty deserve more attention and different answers compared to the past The problem is that Italy is in the middle of a ford: the economic and social costs of the reforms have employment and the quality of work are still lagging or shut the door to Europe and globalisation and the state of the public finances would become even more precarious There are mainstream recipes to overcome the Italian anomaly and more innovative solutions Even some new ideas by the populists can be considered these new political forces should recognise that they cannot address Italy’s broken engine of growth by rolling back reforms or worsening the already fragile state of the public finances Please read our comments policy before commenting Note: This article gives the views of the authors not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics With schools reopening after long months of lockdown and distance learning due to the pandemic students should avoid isolating themselves in the digital world and rebuild real relationships using the head hands and the heart.  Pope Francis offered the exhortation to a delegation of students and staff from the Ambrosoli Institute of Codogno a small northern Italian town of some 15,000.  On February 21 Italy's first coronavirus cases were detected in Codogno in what became the first major outbreak in Europe “Our meeting should have taken place last February on the anniversary of the beginning of the epidemic in Europe in the town of Codogno,” Pope Francis told the delegation of some 55 persons Commending the technical and vocational institute for its excellence and for preparing young people for jobs the Pope said they are a double sign of hope.  He congratulated them for never losing heart.  He pointed out that young people have a strength and desire which when stimulated and accompanied with wisdom and passion by adults teachers need to be 'masters' in the noblest sense of the term.  highlights the link between learning and doing  But what is missing is the third element: the heart.  He said the head the heart and hands are needed in ordered to be coherent so that one thinks what one feels and does and does what one feels and thinks.  This heart and hands: a circle that must always be kept open and dynamic,” he said Pope Francis also noted that the dimension of relationship among students and with teachers has been penalized during the long months of distance learning during the pandemic the Pope invited the students to learn from this negative experience He acknowledged that the digital world has opened up new avenues of knowledge and communication for young people.  But he warned of the “danger of closing in on ourselves and always seeing reality through a filter that only apparently increases our freedom”  He wished that the experience of “‘abstinence’ from friendship” stimulate in them a “greater critical sense in the use of these instruments so that they remain subject to our intelligence and will” Pope Francis reminded the students that they should be the present of society and need not move to the future.  They will be the future of society if they are its present.   “Without young people,” he said “a society is almost dead.” “You are the present because you bring new life,” he reminded them The Holy Father concluded urging the students of Ambrosoli Institute to be grateful to God for the opportunity of school and where they can learn to live their relationships in an open Thank you for reading our article. You can keep up-to-date by subscribing to our daily newsletter. Just click here In this essay, part of our Navigating Economic Change series Lorenzo Codogno and Giampaolo Galli provide a short history of Italy’s economic underperformance before digging into the root of Italy’s growth problems and exploring how some of Italy’s traps may become future challenges for the UK economy Italy has faced a series of economic crises in the past 50 years public debt concerns in the 1980s and currency volatility in the 1990s There were then four shocks in a row over the past fifteen years the coronavirus pandemic and finally the inflation shock partly linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine These crises were opportunities to reform Italy’s economy hopes have been repeatedly disappointed by the lack of policy delivery and as reforms were captured by lobbies and interest groups This chapter first examines some stylised facts then provides a short history of Italy’s economic underperformance Many factors are to blame: poor economic incentives a large share of small and unproductive firms Some of Italy’s traps may become future challenges for the UK economy The Navigating Economic Change essays are written by a range of leading economists and national experts and reflect the views of the authors rather than those of the Resolution Foundation They have been commissioned and edited by Gavin Kelly (Chair of the Resolution Foundation and member of the Economy 2030 steering group) and Richard Davies (Professor at University of Bristol and fellow at the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance) Resolution Foundation, 2 Queen Anne’s Gate, London SW1H 9AA   |   Privacy and Terms   |   Website by Wholegrain Digital We use cookies. Read more about them in our Privacy policy Nearly 52% of UK voters supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Nearly 100% of citizens elsewhere in the bloc were shocked by the result, and the first concern was that Brexit could mark the unravelling of the whole European project. That did not happen: indeed, quite the opposite. Even in the most Eurosceptic countries there was an increase in support for the European Union There was a clear risk that the EU would become disunited in the buildup to Brexit All countries gave a strong mandate to the European Commission British politics appears increasingly folded in on itself and the British economy is arguably less outward-looking than before the referendum Countless questions remain unresolved with the commission and mutual trust between London and Brussels has long since collapsed the drama of the Brexit negotiations was watched with mixed feelings Initial regret shifted to a desire to limit the damage Some economic opportunities to fill the gaps left by the UK opened up Brexit was clearly going to be a loss for everyone but far greater for the UK than for any continental European economy The negative impact on trade, so far, is substantial for the UK. The Centre for European Reform recently estimated that there has been an 11.2% negative impact on trade as a result of Brexit The UK share of world trade has fallen by a further 15% compared to pre-referendum projections A more precise picture of the geographical and sectoral composition will emerge once EU funds to compensate countries for the impact of Brexit are distributed Since 2016, the flow of EU workers to the UK has been in decline. That process accelerated last year The corresponding impact in the EU is a greater pool of labour in some countries and less of a brain drain which increases unemployment but over time becomes a positive supply-side phenomenon it is very much diluted in continental Europe Although the impact of Brexit on the City of London is not yet significant the possibility of maintaining an undisputed dominant position in increasingly integrated European financial markets has been jeopardised London financial job openings have moved to continental Europe That raised fears in the EU of unfair competition through access to the single market especially given the uncooperative approach to negotiations chosen by the UK government these risks have by and large not materialised and concerns are dissipating The illusion of giving a boost to the UK economy with a reduction in taxation has clashed with the new needs for public spending for healthcare and the various electoral promises to the point of forcing the government to raise taxes policies in the UK and the EU look increasingly alike Some in Brussels would say it would have been inconceivable The economic effects of the pandemic inevitably blur into those of Brexit and therefore only once the dust settles can the damage be properly assessed Of the many problems the EU is currently facing Brexit has happily receded from the foreground Lorenzo Codogno is visiting professor in practice at the London School of Economics and the former chief economist of the Italian treasury The unprecedented fiscal package adopted by the European Council this summer – dubbed Next Generation EU – is vital for the recovery of the euro area write Lorenzo Codogno and Paul van den Noord they estimate that the creation of a Eurobond and permanent fiscal capacity at the centre would have been a more powerful means to mitigate the impact of the crisis Although the programme is not yet finalised it is set to contain the following elements The bulk of the fiscal expansion is provided in the form of grants and loans to member states by the Recovery and Resiliency Facility (RRF) amounting to €312.5 and €360 billion While the exact formulas are still under discussion the intention is to spread out the transfers over the years 2021 to 2025 with the onus of the support on those countries that have been hit the most by the crisis member states would receive €77.5 billion under a range of other programmes such as ‘ReactEU’ and the Just Transition Fund Using conservative assumptions on the multiplier effects, we estimate the impact on Eurozone economic growth to be a cumulative 1.5% by 2023 and 3.0% by 2027 (Figure 1). Most of this will benefit the Eurozone periphery, where the cumulative effect could be as large as 4% by 2023 and well over 8% in 2027.1 While impressive enough this is excluding the impact of a range of other – national and supranational – policy initiatives that need to be taken into consideration as well This will tell us whether or not Next Generation EU is indeed the game-changer it is intended to be We use a stylised macroeconomic model developed in a recent paper that is aimed at capturing the cumulative impact of policy change over the medium run broadly reflecting the chronology of events we look at both the national and pan-European fiscal responses (e.g SURE) which were primarily shaped during the initial stages of the outbreak and the associated lockdowns in the spring as well as the ECB’s monetary policy response we add in the impact of Next Generation EU Figure 1: Next Generation EU – estimated cumulative impact on real GDP Finally, we compare these policy responses to a hypothetical case in which an alternative macroeconomic policy and governance framework is assumed along the lines of our paper we assume (i) a single Eurobond to replace national bonds on banks’ balance sheets so as to break the link between banking and sovereign distress including automatic stabilisers and discretionary (but rules-based) policy and (iii) a new quantitative easing (QE) scheme that mandates the ECB to purchase Eurobonds (while national sovereigns lose QE eligibility and those still on the ECB’s balance sheet are swapped for Eurobonds as well) All simulations assume that the core and the periphery are hit by an adverse demand shock of respectively -10% and -15% of GDP and an adverse supply shock of respectively -5% and -7.5% of GDP This is obviously a very crude gauge of the Covid-19 shock and views are bound to evolve as information flows in we assume a favourable risk premium shock of -200 bps in the core – and hence an equivalent shock to the spread – due to a flight to safety (this is aside from the endogenous change in the spread in response to the changes in debt positions) Table 1 reports the computed changes in main aggregates and policy variables in the core 1. Monetary policy stimulus consisting of a sustained 25bp cut in the policy rate2 and asset purchases amounting to 12.3% of GDP per annum sustained for two years.3 We also assume an exogenous cut in the periphery yield by 200 bps over and above the impact of the ECB’s asset purchases to reflect the availability of a new ESM credit line (though this may never be used for various reasons) 2. Fiscal stimulus amounting to 5.2% of GDP in the core and 3.2% of GDP in the periphery.4 Besides we factor in a range of pan-EU measures adopted in the spring that involve fiscal stimulus of the order 0.4% of GDP in the core and 0.8% in the periphery Column II of the table reports the computed outcomes of the actual policy including the impact of Next Generation EU while leaving all other assumptions unchanged Grants are allocated under the Recovery and Resilience Facility to the tune of 1.0% of local GDP in the core and 4.5% of local GDP in the periphery the increase in the primary deficit at the centre would average around 3.5% of euro area GDP Loans are allocated to the tune of 0.4% of local GDP in the core and 6.7% of local GDP in the periphery This leaves the primary deficit at the centre unaffected (loans are below the line) it does have an impact on EU-debt (and a corresponding issuance of common bonds) of an additional 3.5% of Eurozone GDP About 20% of the above Next Generation EU package is assumed to be used for funding of existing national measures which therefore would reduce the national fiscal stimulus accordingly The main results of the simulation can be summarised as follows: The contraction of output is considerably smaller (-1.5%) with much less divergence between the core and periphery The widening yield spread would be neutralised as well the package would be quite effective according to our stylised model we see the primary deficits at the national level still increasing substantially by 6% of GDP in the core and 3.5% of GDP in the periphery this is a much smaller increase than in scenario I helped by the more favourable macroeconomic environment the less prevalent automatic fiscal stabilisers and the use of transfers from the centre to fund national programmes The same holds for the public debt position Policy response with a safe asset and fiscal capacity Scenario III reported in Table 1 is based on the following assumptions: We maintain all national policy measures as well as the creation of the ESM credit line as assumed in scenarios I and II We also assume the supranational fiscal stimulus (both loans and grants) on aggregate to be the same as in scenario II but instead with the fiscal stimulus used to fund pan-European (as opposed to national) programmes and projects The rationale for this choice is to avoid the crowding out of national spending programmes We also slash the asset purchases by the ECB by half 2. Alongside discretionary fiscal expansion at the centre, we assume supranational automatic fiscal stabilisers to cater for some horizontal redistribution. This could be the result of a centralised unemployment insurance or re-insurance scheme or the creation of a rules-based European buffer fund we assume that for every 1 percentage point contraction in national GDP an automatic transfer of 0.2 percentage points of national GDP would occur This transfer replaces equivalent national automatic stabilisers to provide genuine fiscal relief We assume that a safe asset (the same common bond that is issued to raise money for fiscal stimulus at the centre) is created before the pandemic and swapped for national sovereigns on banks’ balance sheets to remove the bank-sovereign doom loop We also assume that only the safe asset has been made eligible for purchases by the ECB Hence all asset purchases carried out by the ECB in this scenario refer to purchases of the safe asset (in the secondary market) The main results can be summarised as follows: The aggregate stabilisation is more potent than in scenario II though this is entirely attributable to the stabilisation of output in the core This is not surprising given the absence of (discretionary) fiscal transfers Yet the periphery is not (much) worse off relative to scenario II the yield spread widens somewhat relative to scenario II reflecting the absence of sovereign debt purchases by the ECB but without affecting bank lending as the doom loop is broken The fiscal-monetary policy mix has shifted towards the former with the aggregate fiscal deficit at the centre widening more than in scenario II – as the supranational automatic stabilisers kick in – and the asset purchases halved Since the ECB would purchase the common bond only its yield is now disconnected from the national yields and falls relative to them This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Council Lorenzo Codogno is Visiting Professor in Practice at the LSE’s European Institute and founder and chief economist of his own consulting vehicle Lorenzo is also a Visiting Professor at the College of Europe he was chief economist and director-general at the Treasury Department of the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (May 2006-February 2015) he was head of the Italian delegation at the Economic Policy Committee of the European Union which he chaired from Jan 2010 to Dec 2011 He joined the Ministry from Bank of America where he had worked over the previous 11 years senior economist and co-head of European Economics based in London Paul van den Noord is an affiliate member at the Amsterdam School of Economics (University of Amsterdam) He spent most of his career at the OECD in Paris (1989-2013) from 2010 to 2013 as a Counsellor to the Chief Economist he was seconded as an Economic Adviser to the European Commission in Brussels In 2013 he joined a financial institution in London and Geneva He has published widely in the fields of monetary union and the political economy of reform including numerous articles in academic journals Metrics details Atg5 has been previously characterized as a protein specifically required for autophagy a lysosomal catabolic pathway for proteins and organelles in addition to its role in the formation of autophagosomes an Atg5 fragment produced by calpain cleavage has pro-apoptotic properties Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout Download references Reprints and permissions Download citation Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: a shareable link is not currently available for this article Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science The expected tariff cost is significantly lower than the $4 billion to $5 billion crosstown rival General Motors estimates which Ford attributes to its higher mix of U.S.-built vehicles Metrics details self-digesting mechanism responsible for the removal of long-lived proteins and damaged organelles by the lysosome The discovery of the ATG genes has provided key information about the formation of the autophagosome and about the role of macroautophagy in allowing cells to survive during nutrient depletion and/or in the absence of growth factors Two connected signaling pathways encompassing class-I phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase and (mammalian) target of rapamycin play a central role in controlling macroautophagy in response to starvation a considerable body of literature reports that macroautophagy is also a cell death mechanism that can occur either in the absence of detectable signs of apoptosis (via autophagic cell death) or concomitantly with apoptosis Macroautophagy is activated by signaling pathways that also control apoptosis The aim of this review is to discuss the signaling pathways that control macroautophagy during cell survival and cell death The aim of this review is to discuss the molecular control of autophagy focusing particularly on signaling during protective autophagy and during autophagy when the process is involved in the execution of a cell death program recent evidence suggests that the elimination of damaged mitochondria by autophagy may act as a rescue mechanism that the cell uses to escape from cell death rather than as a mechanism producing cell death in its own right and one that has not been discussed in the literature so far after prolonged starvation (lasting for more than 3 days in man autophagy slows down again because ketone bodies then begin to replace glucose at least to some extent Although it is obvious that this must occur to prevent excessive degradation of proteins that are essential for cell function nothing is really known about the mechanism underlying the inhibition of autophagy under these extreme conditions (see also section ‘What are the consequences for autophagy of downregulating amino-acid signaling?’) it is tempting to speculate that the ketone bodies themselves may be involved in regulating autophagy was not equivalent to flux through the autophagic system This situation is entirely analogous to that of the metabolic pathways in which changes in the steady-state concentrations of the pathway intermediates do not give any information about the flux through the pathway It may very well be that the relatively low level of autophagosomes in the starved liver in vivo is attributable to a relatively high rate of elimination of autophagosomes rather than to a low rate of autophagosome formation see the section ‘Autophagy and cell death’ this closely parallels the effect of insulin and glucagon and of amino acids on signal transduction Plain and dotted arrows represent activating and inhibiting signaling pathways The outcomes of the various autophagy signaling pathways on cell survival and cell death are discussed in the main text The thick arrow represents the recycling of amino acids produced by autophagic degradation This recycling is highly active during starvation-induced autophagy Amino-acid-dependent activation of mTOR plays a crucial role in repressing autophagy mTOR-independent inhibition of autophagy by amino acids has also been reported amino acids repress autophagy by interfering with Erk1/2 signaling and with the activity of the class-III PI3K/beclin 1 complex involved in the formation of the autophagosome in intestinal and muscle cells The inhibitory effect of the class-I PI3K signaling pathway on autophagy involves mTOR it has been suggested in the literature that there is another signaling pathway that is independent of TOR No role of the LKB1/AMPK signaling in controlling autophagy has yet been reported (*) Given the inhibitory effect of LKB1/AMPK signaling on mTOR signaling we would have expected it to produce stimulation of autophagy If a kinase is acting upstream of AMPK in this signaling process It has been suggested that AMPK-dependent S6K tail phosphorylation may have a structural role in inhibiting autophagy independently of its kinase activity (?) Inhibition of S6K activity is not involved in triggering autophagy but this activity may repress autophagy by some unknown mechanism S6K is required for autophagy to occur (not indicated in the figure) Inhibition of the insulin-signaling pathway by S6K as the result of a negative feedback loop has recently been demonstrated; however the effect of this negative feedback on autophagy remains to be investigated (**) The ceramide-mediated expression of beclin 1 in human breast cancer cells in response to the antiestrogen tamoxifen remains to be elucidated Although autophagy is negatively controlled by mTOR activity the suggestion that the inhibition of autophagy by amino acids also proceeds via mTOR has been challenged Rapamycin was found to stimulate autophagic proteolysis but could not abolish the stimulation of proteolysis by leucine starvation The authors also concluded that amino acids (leucine in particular) do not inhibit autophagy via mTOR It was suggested that amino acids could perhaps turn on different signaling pathways in different tissues characterized by differences in their metabolism and thus contributes to the inhibition of autophagy whereas rictor mTOR is required for Ser473 phosphorylation of PKB and controls cell proliferation and survival It is possible that the relative amount of mTOR sequestered in each of these complexes determines whether or not autophagy can be accelerated by rapamycin It must be stressed that so far the evidence that AMP kinase inhibits autophagy in hepatocytes rests entirely on data obtained using toxins or AICAR and so we cannot rule out the possibility that AICAR has other effects: it may inhibit class-III PI3K In experiments carried out recently in our own laboratory with hepatocytes (unpublished observations) we observed that the antidiabetic agent metformin markedly activated AMPK whereas autophagy remained largely unaffected This would indicate that the activation of AMPK alone is not sufficient to inhibit autophagy because a decline in inhibitory PI(3,4,5)P3 will accelerate autophagy not much information is available about protein turnover in type II diabetes Whether or not autophagy plays a role here is entirely unknown whereas S6K phosphorylated at Thr389 inhibits autophagy which helps to boost the ability to remove damaged mitochondria (and presumably other damaged cellular structures) We will review our understanding of the control of autophagy during cell death and will point out similarities to and differences from the regulation of autophagy observed during cell survival How ecdysone and its receptor inhibit the class-I PI3K pathway remains to be investigated It is interesting to note that programmed autophagy does not depend on the feeding status and inhibition of TOR signaling can further increase autophagy This observation led the authors to suggest that dTOR may be only partially inhibited during programmed autophagy or possibly not involved at all this study demonstrates the 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and Sabatini DM (2002) The immunosuppressant rapamycin mimics a starvation-like signal distinct from amino acid and glucose deprivation Kim J and Klionsky DJ (2000) Dissection of autophagosome biogenesis into distinct nucleation and expansion steps Fletcher GC and Tolkovsky AM (1999) Autophagy is activated by apoptotic signalling in sympathetic neurons: an alternative mechanism of death execution Kroemer G and Takaku F (2000) Bcl-2 down-regulation causes autophagy in a caspase-independent manner in human leukemic HL60 cells Herman B and Levine B (1998) Protection against fatal Sindbis virus encephalitis by beclin Mitochondria – the death signal integrators Manon S and Camougrand N (2004) Uth1p is involved in the autophagic degradation of mitochondria Download references We would like to apologize to any authors whose work could not be cited here because of space limitation Work in P Codogno's laboratory is supported by institutional funding from The Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) and grants from the Association pour la Recherche sur le Cancer (ARC 3503) Reprints and permissions Download citation DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.cdd.4401751 The dates displayed for an article provide information on when various publication milestones were reached at the journal that has published the article activities on preceding journals at which the article was previously under consideration are not shown (for instance submission All content on this site: Copyright © 2025 Elsevier B.V. Ahead of the Italian elections on 4 March, opinion polls suggest an increasingly fragmented political scenario, with a hung parliament and likely difficulties in having a parliamentary majority in support of a new government. But what will the vote mean for Italy’s relations with the EU? Lorenzo Codogno discusses the three most important themes in the Italy-EU relationship The outcome of the Italian elections remains highly uncertain It will be a fight among three major forces which individually are unlikely to command an outright majority of seats in parliament Detailed plans to enhance Italy’s lacklustre growth and reduce the worryingly high debt-to-GDP ratio are shockingly absent from the electoral debate How will this electoral event affect the relationship between Italy and the EU ahead of important talks about the future of European governance A hung parliament would lead to a lengthy and challenging discussion on some form of broad or narrow grand coalition that would bring together the mainstream parties There is also a small but not negligible probability that anti-euro anti-establishment parties will manage to get a better-than-expected result and then team up together to support a new government How did Italy get to this point of political fragmentation and growing anti-European sentiment Italy was among the most pro-euro countries in Europe with a long history of being one of the staunchest advocates for further integration only 59 Italians out of 100 were in favour of a European economic and monetary union with one single currency It was the most Eurosceptic outcome among the countries participating in monetary union This significant shift in attitude could be attributed to the three most problematic points in Italy’s relationship with Europe: fiscal policy The prolonged and deep recession led Italy’s real GDP to contract by almost 10% between the pre-crisis peaks of the first quarter of 2008 to the trough of the first quarter of 2013 although it was still 5.7% below pre-crisis levels in the fourth quarter of 2017 the performance gap versus the Eurozone has widened to 13 percentage points Unemployment moved from 5.7% in April 2007 to 13.0% in November 2014 The popular narrative is that Brussels contributed to deepening the crisis by forcing Italy to implement tight fiscal policies or so-called austerity Under the pressure of financial markets during the European sovereign debt crisis Italy increased the structural (cyclically-adjusted and net of one-offs) primary balance which is the best measure of fiscal stance with an almost 2.5 percentage point tightening in 2012 alone since 2013 there has been a moderately expansionary policy which has brought this metric down to 1.7% in 2017 the Italian government is unlikely to tackle the issue of the high debt-to-GDP ratio forcefully and decidedly The Partito Democratico (Democratic Party) is mostly pro-European although with some populist and anti-austerity flourishes (former PM Renzi repeatedly tried to increase the deficit leeway) although the positive momentum has declined sharply Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is mostly pro-European as well The introduction of a parallel currency (Am-lire) was mainly Berlusconi’s idea Plans to sharply reduce taxation and partly unwind the pension reform are in contradiction with the stated objective of a 4% primary surplus (against an estimated 1.5% in 2017) Its overall stance towards the EU remains constructive A Northern League-led government would make the stance towards the EU and the euro more problematic and the introduction of a parallel currency (mini-bot) has not been dismissed The Five Star Movement appears to have put aside the idea of a referendum on the euro and the proposal for a parallel currency The fight against fiscal rules and the so-called European straightjacket would mount Immigration is another major topic of the electoral campaign especially following the shooting of Africans by a neo-Nazi in Macerata Italy does not have a long tradition of welcoming foreign immigrants despite all humanitarian efforts to save them in the crossing of the Mediterranean Sea Foreign ‘regular’ residents accounted for only 8.3% of the population in 2016 that percentage goes up to 14.1% when looking at the 18-39 year age group with a high concentration in Northern Italy and major cities With a fertility rate of just 1.35% and the natality rate at 0.8% a number which has steadily increased over the past few years – giving rise to concerns about a brain drain Italy will desperately need skilled migrants as its population continues to shrink The massive demographic shift and the socio-political implications that follow makes the immigration issue all the more delicate neither Italian nor European authorities have been able to provide adequate policies to tackle these difficult issues Anti-establishment parties are calling for a massive change in policies The Five Star Movement and far-right parties would seek to pull Italy out of the European Union if Brussels refuses to re-negotiate fiscal and immigration rules Any such government would be off to a rocky start in the relationship with Brussels putting much strain on Italy’s relationship with Brussels Finding a solution to address the undercapitalised banking system burdened by a mountain of Non-Performing Loans been exposed to bank bonds in the same way as in Italy It is thus no surprise that banking issues have become political Finding a solution to address the undercapitalised banking system it remains a weak spot in the relationship with the EU any mainstream government would be strongly supportive of a swift completion of the Banking Union In the risk reduction-risk mutualisation equation Italy can now put on the table an already achieved reduction in banks’ risk It would probably be willing to compromise on a gradual and moderate reduction of the position in government bonds in the portfolio of banks therefore opening up a possible compromise with Germany on the European Deposit Insurance Scheme Italy’s long tradition of supporting pro-European policies and economic integration will likely be continued by any mainstream government albeit with slightly different sensitivities and approaches anti-establishment parties have pledged to fight for more sovereignty which would put the country on a collision course with an idea of a more integrated Europe Note: A shorter version of this article first appeared on the website of Europe’s World not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics First Covid outside of China diagnosed there The locality of Codogno in Italy unveiled a memorial in remembrance of victims of coronavirus and the community the first COvid-19 positive outside of China The site is close to the Red Cross premises in the area The monument was blessed by the Bishop of Lodi Maurizio Malvestiti He said that the pandemic was a test of solidarity amongst citizens Bishop Malvestiti said that the monument is a symbol of starting a path towards healing We use cookies to ensure users are given the best experience on our website We use cookies to help you navigate efficiently and perform certain functions You will find detailed information about all cookies under each consent category below The cookies that are categorized as "Necessary" are stored on your browser as they are essential for enabling the basic functionalities of the site We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze how you use this website and provide the content and advertisements that are relevant to you These cookies will only be stored in your browser with your prior consent You can choose to enable or disable some or all of these cookies but disabling some of them may affect your browsing experience Necessary cookies are required to enable the basic features of this site such as providing secure log-in or adjusting your consent preferences These cookies do not store any personally identifiable data This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the various categories Functional cookies help perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms The _cf_bm cookie is used by OneSignal to facilitate the delivery of web push notifications on this website Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website These cookies help provide information on metrics such as the number of visitors This cookie is installed by Marfeel Solutions Registers data on visitors' website-behaviour This is used for internal analysis and website optimization This cookie is installed by Facebook and identifies browsers for the purposes of providing advertising and site analytics services This cookie is installed by Google Analytics Registers a unique ID that is used to generate statistical data on how the visitor uses the website Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with customized advertisements based on the pages you visited previously and to analyze the effectiveness of the ad campaigns The OAID cookie is set by our Adserver to deliver targeted ads on the  website It tracks user interactions with ads (e.g. impressions) to optimize ad delivery without collecting personally identifiable information This helps provide relevant ads based on browsing activity Other cookies are those that are being identified and have not been classified into any category as yet A serious accident occurred at the Codogno station where a person was hit by a regional train The incident shocked the local community and led to an immediate interruption of rail traffic on the Milan-Piacenza line The railway police intervened to carry out the necessary checks while passengers were notified of the expected cancellations and delays Train traffic was interrupted in both directions creating significant disruption for commuters and travelers Trains scheduled on the Codogno-Pavia route were cancelled leaving many passengers waiting for information Railway authorities have announced that services will resume as soon as the checks and safety operations on the line are completed Incidents like the one in Codogno raise questions about the safety of railway infrastructure and the need to improve protection measures for passengers The frequency of such events highlights the importance of constant vigilance and investment in technologies that can prevent similar situations in the future The local community awaits answers and concrete measures to ensure the safety of all those who use the railway service Notizie.it is a newspaper registered with the Court of Milan n.68 on 01/03/2018 Impara come descrivere lo scopo dell'immagine (si apre in una nuova scheda) Lascia vuoto se l'immagine è puramente decorativa