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Global emissions have soared by two-thirds in the three decades since international climate talks began
what’s needed is a new approach that creates incentives for leading countries and industries to spark transformative technological revolutions
In 1969, in the middle of the spiraling U.S.-Soviet arms race, international relations expert McGeorge Bundy wrote a prescient article in Foreign Affairs about how to “cap the volcano” of armaments
required a laser-like focus on the strategic incentives for both sides to change behavior and stick with their agreements
the same kind of laser focus is needed on climate change
The problem is a lot more complicated than strategic arms control
of course — there are many more relevant countries
and the problem of heat-trapping emissions is deeply embedded in the modern industrial economy
Cutting emissions to nearly zero isn’t merely an activity
like redirecting the purchase of armaments
But the point remains: Success requires less moralizing and more strategizing
Moralizing about climate has led to bold goals
like limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels — a stretch target written into the Paris Agreement on climate change
The problem is that such goals apply to everyone collectively and therefore have no strategic bite on individual countries and companies
Moralizing has inspired shaming and agitating and striking — all useful in drawing attention to the problem of climate change
just as public protests helped focus minds on the need to control nuclear weapons
But attention on climate change is already pretty high and rising
The real challenge is taking action that delivers major cuts in greenhouse gases
and that means rewiring the incentives for key governments and corporations to change behavior and start decarbonizing the global economy
No major economy has ever cut emissions of warming gases that quickly; it’s not practical to make such cuts globally on the time frame of industrial and agricultural systems that usually don’t change quickly
The planet will blow through the 1.5 degrees C goal and through 2 degrees C as well
we may be on track for 3 degrees C or more — levels of warming that scientists say will have ruinous consequences
Yet even as the most ambitious global goals are slipping away
the need for a realistic blueprint to steadily wean our economies off carbon emissions has never been more urgent
strategic thinking led to diplomacy — arms control agreements with precise commitments that the superpowers
strategic thinking runs the opposite direction
but making global progress requires that progressive countries and companies lead the way by demonstrating practical
scalable ways to achieve deep decarbonization
Only then can diplomacy and global agreements follow by codifying and directing progress once key countries already know what they are willing and able to do
While the Paris Agreement is an encouraging framework, it seems unlikely that today’s diplomacy will be the handmaiden of strategic thinking for climate change
which creates a strong incentive for holdouts
The gridlock most recently on display at UN climate talks in Madrid — where essentially nothing was agreed — is just the latest evidence that global diplomacy and global agreements will operate too slowly and too cautiously to address the climate crisis
but they will largely be followers rather than leaders
Making more rapid progress requires changing the facts on the ground — new methods of industrial production and agriculture with radically lower emissions — so that key countries will be willing to do more and powerful groups and companies can mobilize around systemic decarbonization
In Madrid, a team of us released a new study that offers this new view for accelerating deep decarbonization
Our core argument is that getting serious about decarbonization requires a new approach to industrial policy — one that is organized sector-by-sector and coordinated internationally to create progressively larger markets and stronger incentives for decarbonized industries
Decarbonization requires a string of technological revolutions in each of the major emitting sectors
These 10 sectors account for about 80 percent of world emissions
As subsidies wane, market forces drive the growth of renewables. Read more
In electricity, much of the action must focus on expanding the use of solar and wind so that costs keep coming down. Lower costs mean that every dollar invested goes farther; total investment has stayed roughly flat
but the installed capacity of wind and solar are soaring
It is vital that government policy also look beyond just renewables — for example
to flexible gas-fired power plants that capture carbon pollution before it is released into the atmosphere
and to advanced nuclear plants with zero emissions
Such plants can help keep grids reliable as they shift to lots of renewable power — operating when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing
In cars, policies aimed at boosting sales and lowering costs of electric vehicles — such as subsidies that decline as technology improves, as well as investments in charging infrastructure — can play a role
so that EVs become a viable business and move beyond niche applications
it has become clear that there are two very distinct problems
advanced heat pump technology can allow for electrification of heating systems
much bigger problem is how to cut emissions from existing buildings
which will account for most emissions from this sector
Here the actions are a blend of technology (e.g.
easier to retrofit efficient heating and air conditioning systems) and regulation
since in most countries the big barriers to changing buildings aren’t just cost but also building codes
Frank Geels, one of the world’s leading experts on technological revolutions, has broken down the process of massive technological change into three major phases — emergence of a new technological system
diffusion into widespread service as the system gains market share and improves performance
and then broad reconfiguration of whole markets around the new system
New technologies are emerging, which gives cause for optimism over the long haul. But fundamental change tends to happen slowly, which means that between the inertia of today’s existing technological systems, investment commitments to high-emitting infrastructure, and the inertia of the climate system there’s a lot of warming in the pipeline
a program to boost and coordinate these kinds of investments
only a subset of political jurisdictions — mainly in Europe and parts of the United States
and in a few other countries — have demonstrated that they are highly motivated to act
The silver lining in this disturbing fact is that these leaders can get a lot done — if they have the right strategy
Much of what is needed to improve technologies and markets in the initial phase can happen in small groups of countries where incentives for change are strongest
a polluting industry that is the least far along in the decarbonization revolution
Unless the world finds a replacement for steel — which so far
seems unlikely — then decarbonization of raw steel production must take place
Cutting emissions requires finding new sources of carbon-free heat; rather than burning natural gas or coal in steel plants
or carbon-capture technologies must be explored
It also requires methods for chemically reducing molten iron ore into steel — a process that today uses coal and causes emissions
Several alternative methods exist in theory
but all of them seem likely to raise costs a lot — perhaps doubling the price of bulk steel from today’s levels
Because steel is a globally traded commodity
no company will make this shift on its own
which means direct subsidies for companies that are testing green steel production methods
government policy can link new supplies of green steel with users who are most willing to pay higher initial costs — including governments
which can create guaranteed markets through their purchasing policies
While the details vary across every sector
Leaders need to channel political energy from the growing public concern about climate change into policies aimed at changing the incentives to test and deploy new technologies
the political strategies must shift away from small groups of highly motivated leaders and toward broader diffusion
This kind of shift in policy strategy is most evident in the electric power sector
which is farthest along in the process of decarbonization
Success with renewables has focused governments on the next frontier: integration of renewables while keeping grid power reliable and affordable
the impact on global emissions is minuscule; when China does
The New Climate Math: The numbers keep getting more frightening. Read more
Channeling a lot more McGeorge Bundy into the strategy of deep decarbonization is long overdue. And with success in creating new facts on the ground, the political and economic strategies must shift — from the leaders to the rest of the planet
The physical engineering of decarbonized industrial and agricultural systems may prove relatively easy once enough companies
The missing link isn’t engineering capabilities but the strategic approach to creating the incentives and markets required for sparking new technology and businesses
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Mexican solar manufacturer Solarever said it wants to invest $1 billion in a new factory in Jalisco and Brazilian PV system provider Sengi Solar said it aims to set up two manufacturing facilities in the states of Paraná and Pernambuco
From pv magazine Latam
Solarever
announced this week it intends to invest $1 billion in the construction of its second solar panel factory in Zacoalco de Torres
The new manufacturing facility is expected to produce both cells and modules and to cover a surface of around 1,000 m2
“Investing in this type of project is essential and Jalisco is a state with great potential in the sector and skilled labor
which is why it has had impressive growth,” Eversolar CEO Simon Zhao said
we want to continue promoting clean energy in this entity for all of Mexico.”
Solarever had also unveiled plans to increase its production capacity from 500 MW to 1 GW at its factory in Tecomán
“We are also planning to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and to expand our business in the EV and storage business,” Zhao told pv magazine at the time
The company recently signed agreements with the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and the Autonomous Metropolitan University to build an R&D center for the development of solar
Brazilian PV system provider Sengi Solar announced an investment of BRL 440 million ($85 million) for the construction of two solar panel factories in the states of Paraná and Pernambuco
The two facilities are to have a combined capacity of 1 GW
The investments are expected to generate about 500 direct jobs in the two regions
one of them at the headquarters in Cascavel
scheduled to start operating in September this year
The modules produced at the facilities will have a rated power of between 440 and 670 W and will be manufactured with bifacial and double glass technologies
the plan is to fully meet the growth of the domestic solar energy market and offer a Brazilian product to more than 80 photovoltaic equipment distributors operating in the country
Sengi Solar is a subsidiary of the Tangipar Group
which offers vertical solutions for the entire energy chain
from manufacturing and distribution to installation
With around 800 employees distributed between headquarters and distribution centers
the organization operates in the energy segment with distributed and centralized generation and commercialization as well as supply and distribution of photovoltaic equipment
More articles from Lívia Neves
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COSTA RICA'S LEADING ENGLISH LANGUAGE NEWSPAPER
Mexico — At least 15 police officers were killed in an ambush by a gang in western Mexico
in only the latest attack against Jalisco state authorities
Five more officers were wounded in the assault
which took place on Monday on a highway near the village of Soyatan as a convoy carrying the elite state police unit headed to Guadalajara
which means that we can’t let our guard down,” said Francisco Alejandro Solorio Arechiga
Jalisco’s state security commissioner
“Fifteen of our colleagues lost their lives
Five officers were also wounded in this regrettable event
they’re all in stable condition,” he said
The Jalisco state prosecutor’s office had reported the attack late Monday but had not confirmed the fatalities, saying only that several officers had been “hit by bullets.” Officials did not identify the gang but a security source told AFP that they suspect the powerful “Jalisco New Generation Drug Cartel” carried out the assault
Authorities say the assault appeared to be in revenge over the arrest of gang suspects in an investigation into a failed assassination attempt against Solorio on March 30
“These attacks are a reaction of organized crime after the attack against me,” Solorio said after a meeting of federal police
military and state security officials in Guadalajara
Fifteen suspects are under investigation over the attack against Solorio
The assassination bid was itself a response to a March 23 operation in the town of Zacoalco de Torres in which three gang suspects were killed
In a separate gun battle four days earlier
gunmen opened fire on a federal gendarmerie police convoy in the town of Ocotlan on March 19
More than 100,000 people have died or gone missing since Mexico’s drug war began to escalate in 2006 with the deployment of troops to combat drug cartels
The Jalisco drug cartel has fought violent turf wars with the Knights Templar gang in the neighboring state of Michoacan for years. The cartel emerged in 2010 after the death of Ignacio Coronel Villarreal, alias “Nacho Coronel,” the top leader in Jalisco for the powerful Sinaloa drug cartel
Criminals have attacked other authorities in Jalisco in the past year
a federal lawmaker was abducted as he drove to the airport near Guadalajara
His charred body was found hours later in a neighboring state
a group of 30 gunmen armed with grenades ambushed a military truck near the town of Guachinango