Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker This ruined and heavily fortified city in the Donetsk Oblast region of Ukraine became the primary focus of Russian offensive operations following the petering-out of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive The campaign coincided with the ascension of U.S House Speaker Mike Johnson who placed a block on U.S military aid that soon caused a disastrous shortage of artillery shells for Ukraine Ukrainian forces turned to FPV kamikaze drones to become their primary indirect fire and anti-tank weapon.  As Russia’s mechanized assaults repeatedly suffered catastrophic losses to mines and FPV drones they reverted to blanketing Ukrainian defensive positions with smaller-scale infantry attack instead These “meat assaults”—sometimes mounted in golf carts or motorcycles in hope of outrunning drone counterstrikes—incurred tens of thousands of casualties Ukrainian snipers in ruined urban buildings were recorded using Black Hornet nano drones to scan for their Russian counterparts while preparing deadly ambushes combined with extensive use of UMPK glide bombs blew holes in the over-stretched Ukrainian frontline allowing Russian forces to gradually locate the gaps and creep forward.  Drones on both sides created a deadly killing zone between frontline positions and their logistical support bases resulting in heavy losses to supply vehicles negotiating muddy rained-over or snowed-under roads.  both Russia and Ukraine began extensive deployment of UGVs to sustain their supply lines for the first time recordings of FPV kamikaze units striking those UGVs soon began to circulate Ukrainian UGVs were also recorded minelaying and were even used to recover a valuable crashed Orlan-30 drone and its laser designator The fortunes of the FPV war itself fluctuated: by late fall Russia clearly came to eclipse Ukraine in mass-production of FPVs But then Ukraine itself developed new techniques giving it a lasting qualitative edge circumventing Russian electronic warfare Johnson’s six-month clampdown on Ukraine aid also interrupted the flow of American-supplied air defense missiles to Ukraine accelerating an already looming crisis as Ukraine depleted non-replaceable stocks of Soviet surface-to-air missiles The resulting shortage meant Ukrainian air defenses could no longer afford to expend pricey missiles against cheap Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 drones the Russians increasingly penetrated Ukrainian-held airspace and acquired high-value time-sensitive targets at operational depth for destruction by Iskander-M ballistic missiles and landed MiG-29 and Su-25 jets at near-frontline airbases are attractive due to low time-to-target and large area of effect Executing such attacks required Russia to develop a horizontal drone-to-missile kill-chain to reduce time delays between target acquisition and fires generation to single-digit minutes.  Army introduces new ballistic missiles into service SM-6 and Dark Eagle hypersonic glide vehicle it too must develop a practiced drone-to-missile launcher kill chain perhaps in its specialized multi-domain brigades medium-range ISR drones continue to play a huge role multiplying the effectiveness of Russia’s indirect-fires oriented ground army Russian officials claimed to have procured 3,500 UAVs in 2023 referring to ISR drones and not loitering munitions and sUAS Russia ultimately seized Avdiivka in February at the cost of an estimated 34,000 to 47,000 casualties including 17,000 killed in action or suffering crippling injuries per Russian sources Ukraine claims it lost 5,000 to 7,000 soldiers perhaps including about 1,000 captured attempting to withdraw Speaker Johnson finally lifted his block on aid to Ukraine the war brought a new spectacle when a company of six Russian Courier UGVs armed with automatic grenade launcher turrets assembled near Ukraine’s fallback defenses west of Avdiivka to launch a massed attack Though alleged to have fired hundreds of grenades including two gruesomely dismantled on camera by FPV drones kamikaze drones countering assaults slaughter squads of infantry or platoons of tanks and BMP fighting vehicles the cost of failure was merely $66,000 worth of drones Russia’s military could turn to cheap UGVs as substitutes to curb how rapidly it loses soldiers in “meat assaults” when probing Ukrainian defense Drones and artillery may do most of the killing flesh-and-blood human beings remain indispensable for effectively holding defensive positions Ukraine’s military suffers from a more immediate manpower crisis than Russia’s—it may suffer lighter losses compared to Russia but it has just over one-quarter the population Using unmanned sentry systems could theoretically allow the same stretch of frontline to be manned by fewer troops continuously exposed to glide bombing jet There is not yet much of a sense that combat UGVs bring capabilities as disruptive as those of UAVs The primary goal is to reduce losses of soldiers mechanized maneuver warfare exacerbates the Achilles heel of UGVs—their limited viable command-link range compared to aerial drones combined with the challenges autonomy algorithms face negotiating more complex terrain and combat situations it’s precisely the World War I-like conditions now prevalent in Ukraine since 2023 that have enabled the use of cheaper UGVs over shorter distances down relatively predictable corridors Ukraine’s United24 fundraising organ unveiled its expansive plans to procure hundreds of unmanned systems for operational use in combat Tech incubator Brave1 had considered 140 UGV and remote weapon system concepts An estimated 250 local businesses are now making it happen with one example UGV described as costing $35,000 each The ground combat systems include the Shablya M2 autonomous turret simple four-wheelers described as capable of both assault and defensive missions as well as surveillance and reconnaissance armed with 7.62-millimeter PKT/PKM machine guns Some are armored against small arms and support thermographic cameras for night combat can carry up to two TM-62 anti-tank mines or 88 pounds of explosives for one-way attack missions battery-powered Ratel-S moves silently and can also serve in a non-kamikaze role using a tilt-platform to deposit four TM-62s It has a maximum range of 3.7 miles and control range of 3.4 miles endurance of 2 hours and maximum speed of 15.5 mph In April the type was used to deploy a bridge-destroying explosive in combat in the Donetsk region there’s a lineup of logistics robots: VOLYA-E for delivery and casualty-evacuation missions The tracked VOLYA-E can carry up to 330 pounds and fits inside the trunk of an SUV and by June had reportedly been used to evacuate hundreds of wounded soldiers The army of robots hasn’t arrived on the frontline as visibly as new UAV designs a preeminent expert on Russian unmanned systems at the Center of Naval Analyses and the CNAS defense think tank “Mass-scale saturation of front lines would take some time United 24 and Brave1 are promising fast deliveries given the need for such systems.” “Many UGVs used on the Russian side are built and supplied by volunteers or by soldiers themselves right there at the front,” Bendett wrote IUS Boston Dynamics developed the first modern robodog in the 2000s with military funding but since has stayed clear of the defense sector But recently other companies have begun offering robodogs of their own and advertised their potential armed applications a British company named Brit Alliance purchased two types of Chinese commercial robodogs each costing about $3,000—the Unitree Go2Pro and the Deep Robotics Lite3 Venture—and refitted these with IR cameras infrared-absorbing blankets and other equipment for use in an ISR battlefield delivery and mine detection role under the designations BAD1 and BAD2 These were transferred to Kurt & Company the drone unit of Ukraine’s 28th Mechanized Brigade The eponymous commander extolled the robodog’s virtues to media and mentioned he was also working to convert the robodogs to execute kamikaze attacks against armored vehicles At a base price of $3,000 the robodogs are cheap but not cheaper than many sUAS with the advantages of flight Time will tell how substantial their niche is in both non-combat tasks and jerry-rigged for combat roles in confined spaces While we think of technology as always enhancing agility and responsiveness in Ukraine drones have had an effect similar to that of modern artillery and machine guns in World War I by bogging maneuver forces down making sustained offensive gains challenging This is because drone ISR and target spotting combined with artillery and kamikaze drones enabled rapid detection of maneuver forces leading to massing for an attack and concentration of firepower against key enablers such as minefield breaching vehicles and punished Russia’s attempted large-scale armored attacks especially for fire support and counterattacks But their ability to conduct breakthrough maneuver warfare is constrained.  The failure of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive post-facto led many to conclude that surprise is impossible because ubiquitous drone surveillance across the frontline creates a transparent battlefield.”  The counteroffensive’s operational security failures were so comprehensive due to leaks from the Pentagon Drone ISR can’t be uniquely held responsible though it did help Russia swiftly and successfully mass precision fires on Ukraine’s armored spearheads integrated into an operational security strategy may deny early warning in areas the adversary is predisposed to incuriosity—paralyzing their initial response The shock achieved by Ukraine’s Kursk invasion—whatever its strategic merits—shows surprise is possible One Russian account of that “shock effect” involved a dedicated three-stage counter-UAS tactic earlier observed this year in Ukrainian counterattacks near Kharkiv Ukraine neutralized Russia’s local ISR assets on Kursk’s border perhaps referring to concentrated activity by drone interceptor or electronic warfare (EW) Ukrainian ground forces forward-deployed ground-based jammers “almost to the front line,” tuned to frequencies relied upon by Russian border security forces discovered via prior ELINT efforts While the ensuing jamming blitz disabled comms and control links the Ukrainians employed “swarms” of sUAS operating at non-standard frequencies to surveil and harry the exposed defensive positions until ground assault forces seized them jammers moved forward again and the cycle of jamming Russian local comms were crippled for days and even Russia’s Lancet drones struggled to generate strikes in the area the Kursk border forces were undermanned and had outdated equipment A more suspicious Russian military might have preemptively deployed UAV and EW assets to overcome Ukraine’s denial effort—but not knowing what it didn’t know Expendability facilitates “numbers game” tactics to wear down defenses that reliably defeat the first few attacks sUAS can approach from virtually any angle meaning relying on forward-facing defenses is no longer satisfactory Even static fortifications should reflect CUAS principles such as L-shaped entrances to prevent kamikaze drones from easily gliding inside and supporting protection and firing across 360-degrees tanks require drone-proofing from all aspects—top flanking was difficult and top attack weapons like Javelin were expensive and rare top- and side-attack capability is ubiquitous and cheap Even Russia’s ill-prepared forces anticipated the problem by installing anti-drone “cope-cages” prior to the full-scale invasion in February 2022 Now cope cages have become virtually compulsory and vehicle-mounted CUAS jammers have become standard as well Russia even developed crude turtle tanks with a pancake dome over the tank constraining turret traverse—a testament to the overwhelming magnitude of the loitering munition threat.  there is ample footage showing that even such defenses are not perfect as drone operators manage to glide under the protective covering of turtle tanks and cope cages such defenses at least reduce kill probability of individual attacks Designers of next-generation kamikaze drones will seek to train AI to analyze which defenses are present on a target and optimize their approach vector accordingly—something only human operators currently can do Self-defense jammers and bolt-on cages will likely be offered standard; active protection systems (APS) designed to shoot down anti-tank missiles/rockets will also support counter-drone capability Russia is already touting upgrades to its Arena-M APS in a counter-drone role allowing it to consider aerial threats slower than 150 mph—though what the new minimum speed is is an interesting question as copter drones can also hover slowly toward tanks Russia’s legacy Soviet short-range air defense (SHORAD) systems were generally well-respected prior to 2022 particularly post-Cold War as western armies rapidly divested SHORAD capabilities like Gepard and Linebacker Syria and Armenia-Azerbaijan gave early indications that Russia’s newer Tor-M2 and Pantsir systems might have issues countering smaller drones Petersburg professor Sergey Makarenko spells out multiple reasons based on Russian kinetic CUAS tests in 2020 The radar on the Tor short-range missile system only detects sUAS at roughly 1.8-2.5-mile ranges and frequently fails when shooting sUAS due to problems with the warhead detonation control system and imprecise tracking The missiles on the tracked Tunguska and Pantsir gun/missile truck are actually worse—finding it “practically impossible” to detect sUAS before they entered minimum engagement range The very-short-range (VSHORAD) heat-seeking Strela missile struggles to acquire electrically powered drones and only locks when facing the rear-aspect of gas-powered ones But what about the fearsome autocannons on Tunguska and Pantsir “but probability of defeat [of drones] is low.” He notes where a battery of four Tunguskas needed to expend up to 13,000 shells to achieve a 50% kill probability against an Akila target drone 2 miles away An individual Tunguska carries 1,900 shells Makarenko advocates sensor fusion incorporating optical and acoustic sensors smaller fragments rather than the current norm of fewer larger fragments to damage large airplanes No single Ukrainian loitering munition in 2023 combined the scale of production and operational depth strike capabilities of Russia’s Lancet loitering munition Kyiv explicitly sought a Ukrolancet with 43 mile-range max speed of 111 mph and automatic terminal guidance builder of Leleka 100 ISR drones and the related RAM-II loitering munition a compilation of videos showed SBU operatives employing RAM Xs to destroy three vehicles from a Buk medium-range air defense battery five self-propelled anti-aircraft systems (Tor Strela-10 and Tunguska) and a Borisoglebsk-2 EW system Russian and Ukrainian infantry have found the sprays of buckshot from a shotgun are more reliable than assault rifles as last-ditch defense against incoming kamikaze drones Many units have dedicated shotgun-armed CUAS specialists on constant lookout for incoming drones often handpicked for their hunting background or marksmanship Russian Vepr-12 Molot and Turkish BTS12 are popular the latter said to be effective out to 120 meters.  “Lethality” and “force protection” are terms conveying offensive and defensive qualities unmanned systems provide intrinsic force protection by keeping operators relatively out of harm’s way compared to manned alternatives—but that’s a narrow way to evaluate their broader impact Ukraine’s USV and UAV operations are drivers of lethality increasing attrition dealt to the enemy greatly beyond what their available forces could achieve without them even the armed UGVs combat tested so far aren’t yet poised to contribute much greater lethality than the personnel and vehicles they substitute for UGVs are serving a force-protection role with the objective of getting dangerous jobs done while exposing fewer humans across the entire force to harm Ukraine’s major efforts in UGV production begun in 2024 will likely have less outwardly dramatic results than the destructive feats of UAVs But while UGVs may generate fewer videos of exploding tanks they may result in more own-side soldiers retaining life and limb thanks to a robot destroyed while clearing a minefield delivering supplies or overwatching a perimeter.  Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London He also covers other areas of geopolitics including China Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from the International Business Times and well as English You can get in touch with Brendan by emailing b.cole@newsweek.com or follow on him on his X account @brendanmarkcole either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content Russian troops have made gains near the Donetsk town which has been a focal point for fighting in the eastern Donbas region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) whose map shows the latest state of play along the frontline Moscow's troops have made intensive efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops in the Pokrovsk direction, west of Avdiivka—the town captured by Moscow in February after months of fierce fighting As part of their push, Vladimir Putin's troops "have recently made significant tactical advances northwest of Avdiivka," the ISW said noting geolocated footage showed Russia holding positions in western Novoselivka Persha This confirmed they had "recently seized the entire settlement." the Ukrainian General Staff said that Russian attacks were continuing at a high rate northwest The ISW's latest map of the area shows how Russian forces had captured this settlement on Monday as well as the settlements of Vovche and Lozuvatske further north three days earlier Russian sources have claimed that Moscow's forces have seized over half of Vesele and are moving toward the larger settlements of Novohrodivka and Selydove which are about eight miles west of the frontline The ISW graphic also shows these gains as well as the Russian seizure of Yasnobrodivka on July 25 Russian troops had advanced southwest of Donetsk city and on Monday continued their offensive operations west and southwest of the regional capital Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment Russia had also begun attacking in the direction of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after a long pause spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces told Ukrainian television that Moscow's troops had attempted assaults "from two different fronts," the Kyiv Independent reported He said that Ukrainian intelligence believed it was "a continuation of the tactics of small assault actions" because the number of troops in Zaporizhzhia had not increased Lykhovii had denied reports that Russia had made gains in other parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast He has disputed claims that Russia had likely seized Robotyne—liberated by Kyiv's forces last summer It comes as Ukraine awaits the full delivery of Western weapons which it hopes will shift the dial on the battlefield The German government said on Monday that it had given Kyiv eight Leopard 1 A5 tanks, 21,000 rounds of ammunition for Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns two Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicles 10 unmanned surface vessels and 10 ground surveillance radars Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground Newsletters in your inbox See all Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. The loss of the city of Avdiivka last month marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. Another unit had been in the city for nearly two years. (AP video: Alex Babenko and Bela Szandelsky) The serviceman of 47th brigade known by call-sign “Azimuth”, 33, pauses, during an interview with The Associated Press, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. The loss of the city of Avdiivka last month marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (AP Photo/Alex Babenko) The serviceman of 47th brigade known by call-sign “Azimuth”, 33, speaks, during an interview with The Associated Press, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, on Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. The loss of the city of Avdiivka last month marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (AP Photo/Alex Babenko) Serviceman of the aerial reconnaissance unit of the 3rd assault brigade known by call-sign “Lypen” is photographed during an interview with The Associated Press, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. The loss of the city of Avdiivka last month marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (AP Photo/Alex Babenko) Newly recruited soldiers of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade line up at a military base close to Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. The loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, 2024 marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) Commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade Andriy Biletsky, left, shakes hands with newly recruited soldiers at a military base close to Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. The loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, 2024 marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) This satellite image from Feb. 26, 2024 shows Avdiivka’s coke plant after Ukrainian troops withdrew from the city in February 2024. The loss of the city of Avdiivka last month marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (Planet Labs via AP) This satellite image from May 20, 2021 shows Avdiivka’s coke plant before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, 2024 marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (Planet Labs via AP) This satellite image from Feb. 26, 2024 shows the Ukrainian “Zenith” position in Avdiivka, Ukraine. The loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, 2024 marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (Planet Labs via AP) This satellite image from July 13, 2022 shows the Ukrainian “Zenith” position in Avdiivka, Ukraine. The loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, 2024 marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (Planet Labs via AP) This satellite image from Oct. 19, 2023 shows the Ukrainian “Zenith” position in Avdiivka, Ukraine. The loss of the city of Avdiivka in February, 2024 marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. (Planet Labs via AP) In this undated photo taken on the front-line, provided by Viktor Biliak, a Ukrainian infantryman with the 110th brigade, center, surrounded by fellow soldiers, poses for a photo, in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine. (Viktor Biliak via AP) In this undated photo taken on the front-line, provided by Viktor Biliak, a Ukrainian infantryman with the 110th brigade, poses for a photo, in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine. The loss of the city of Avdiivka in February 2024 marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. Another unit had been in the city for nearly two years. (Viktor Biliak via AP) Newly recruited soldiers of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade shout slogans at a military base close to Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. The loss of the city of Avdiivka in February 2024 marked the end of a long, exhausting defense for the Ukrainian military. One brigade had defended the same block of buildings for months without a break. Another unit had been in the city for nearly two years. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) This satellite image from Feb. 26, 2024 shows Avdiivka’s coke plant after Ukrainian troops withdrew from the city in February 2024. (Planet Labs via AP) The Associated Press interviewed 10 Ukrainian soldiers to reconstruct how dwindling ammunition, overwhelming Russian numbers and military mismanagement led to the worst Ukrainian defeat in a year. The same problems pose risks for Ukraine’s near future. “We weren’t so much physically exhausted as psychologically, being chained to that place,” said Viktor Biliak, an infantryman with the 110th Brigade who had been in the area since March 2022. The men joked darkly that the only way out was to die, get wounded or go to prison. His unit was on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka, in a well-fortified position called Zenith, which has been on the front lines since Russia first attacked in 2014. Normally the men would dig fortifications, but Biliak said there was constant Russian fire, and no energy or equipment beyond hand shovels. In this undated photo taken on the front-line, provided by Viktor Biliak, a Ukrainian infantryman with the 110th brigade, center, surrounded by fellow soldiers, poses for a photo, in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine.(Viktor Biliak via AP) Some of their trenches were hardly worthy of the name, just over knee-deep, according to images posted to various brigades’ social media accounts. That meant when soldiers retreated, nowhere was safe to withdraw. The Russians were easy to take prisoner, and some had served for little more than a month, according to their documents. “They don’t know where they’re going, and when they’re asked what their job was, they usually said that they were supposed to take shelter in a basement and wait for the next forces,” said Oleh, who like most Ukrainian soldiers asked to be identified by only his first name or nom de guerre. Newly recruited soldiers of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade shout slogans at a military base close to Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) But by the end of November, during a major Russian assault, the Ukrainians realized something had changed: The skies filled with glide bombs, enormous unguided Soviet-era weapons retrofitted with a navigational targeting system that obliterate everything around them , as well as motion-sensing explosive drones that could enter buildings and hunt personnel. With ammunition stocks running low, Ukrainians fought back with whatever caliber of ammunition was left in the warehouses. For every shell they fired, the Russians fired eight or nine, the men said. “When you have different types of shells, they have different trajectories, and you have to calculate where they will fly, where they will hit. This is a kind of chaos,” Oleh said. “And the longer it went, the more we got this stew of shells for all kinds of weapons.” Among the Ukrainian soldiers, the idea of retreat took seed. There were no reinforcements, no more ammunition and no changes in their orders. Hundreds of Ukrainian forces withdrew to Avdiivka’s coke plant after repeated Russian onslaughts last fall. Its 10-kilometer (6-mile) perimeter enclosed a sprawling warren of buildings, staircases, chimneys, railroad tracks and aboveground pipelines. The roughly rectangular Soviet-era property was surrounded by open fields on three sides and a neighborhood of weekend cottages on the fourth. In other words, a near-perfect defensive position. But as the new year began, even the coke plant felt vulnerable. The glide bombs began exploding by the dozens every day. Holding the flank across the fields to the north, Oleh once counted 74 airstrikes in a single shift. Oleksander, a company commander with the Presidential Brigade inside the plant, said the psychological effect was terrible. “Everyone is used to artillery, but the aerial bombs are something new, and we are not used to them,” he said. “Their destructive power is many times greater. The effect on the psyche is also greater.” Ukrainian brigades try to rotate men out of direct front-line positions after days or a week at most. And brigades with long-term engagements are supposed to be pulled back to allow them to replace people lost to death or injury, rest their nerves and resupply. The 110th Brigade had been fighting there since March 2022 and the 2nd Battalion of the Presidential Brigade since March 2023. The 47th Brigade arrived in mid-October. As officials in Kyiv argued over the delicate question of expanding the draft, many of the soldiers in the east felt ignored by Western allies who no longer sent weapons, by their high command and by fellow Ukrainians. Russian special forces started popping up, seemingly from nowhere, opening fire on the Ukrainians before disappearing again. The Russians emerged from a sewer behind Ukrainian lines and captured a commander before the stunned soldiers could react. Those men retreated to Biliak’s position, on the southern flank of Avdiivka. The soldiers in the coke plant had similar problems, learning to guard against surprises emerging from its tunnel network and from countless, overwhelming frontal assaults. “They just kept throwing themselves at the coke plant, leaving piles of their corpses there. Mountains of bodies and heaps of smashed equipment,” said Maksym, a soldier in the Presidential Brigade. “And every time, they took the same route, we hit them and hit them, and ultimately held our ground.” With the constant pressure and the lack of help, there was talk of retreat, Oleh said. “Their constant assaults exhausted us.” By then, defensive lines were partly destroyed and the enemy seemed to be everywhere. The next day outside Avdiivka, officers fighting to save the town gathered in a command post a few kilometers (miles) from the coke plant. There was a heated discussion and the commander and two soldiers left together in a car, according to the documents seen by the AP. What happened next is unclear at a time when emotions were running high and Russian saboteurs were appearing behind the Ukrainian lines. Authorities don’t believe the missing officer had classified information or military hardware on him when he disappeared with the two others. One of the soldiers was found dead nearby of gunshot wounds. Still missing are the commander and the other man. The AP is not naming the men to avoid endangering anyone who might be prisoner. On Feb. 15, Biliak received the order for a nighttime retreat for the 110th Brigade from his point on the southern flank of Avdiivka. He was assigned to withdraw in the fourth group. The first group was ambushed almost immediately. The second group was ambushed and turned back. Wounded lightly by shrapnel, Biliak and the other men split up into smaller groups and moved out in darkness. He had been at the same intersection, just south of Avdiivka, for just under two years. “It would have been joyful if it had happened earlier. We were always ready to drop everything and flee from there because we had known for a long time that the end was coming,” he said. “But then we already knew it was too late, and it was out of desperation.” He made his way out on foot, a fresh bandage on his face. Only his night vision goggles allowed him to find a path to safety, he said. But they also revealed pure horror: Men who had fallen into bomb craters and broken legs during the retreat. Others were ripped open by shrapnel and were told to wait for a car to evacuate them, including one man who called his sister as he was lying wounded in the darkness with four other men, according to her recording of the conversation. No one could reach them. The men were still alive the next day, but during another call home, the family heard Russian soldiers: “Get up, get out, we won’t carry you.” All five were later identified as dead by the 110th Brigade. The 3rd Assault Brigade received the command to retreat a day after the 110th Brigade. It was orderly but hasty. The Ukrainian forces knew Russians were listening in on their radio conversations, so they communicated face-to-face when possible. By 5 a.m., the coke plant that held more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers the day before was down to just a few truckloads. On Feb. 17, Russia claimed control of Avdiivka and its coke plant. On Feb. 29, Ukraine’s new military chief, Col. Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi released a statement emphasizing the importance of experienced and decisive commanders. He said his inspection of troops in the Donetsk region revealed that some commanders “made certain miscalculations in mastering the situation and assessing the enemy, which directly affected the stability of the defense in certain directions.” Many of the men worry about what the loss of Avdiivka means for Ukraine’s future. There is little time to waste. “I try not to feel a sense of despair, of betrayal,” said Andrii, who had fought in Avdiivka for the 110th Brigade since 2022. “The war is still here. We need to recover and keep moving.” Associated Press journalists Illia Novikov and Evgeniy Maloletka in Kyiv and Volodymyr Yurchuk in Sloviansk contributed to this report. Russian forces launched an offensive on Avdiivka becoming one of the most prolonged attacks in the history of warfare The offensive has taken a staggering toll on the Russian army with hundreds of thousands of personnel lost and thousands of armored vehicles destroyed it could still take Russia years to fully occupy the wider Donetsk region With Russian casualties significantly higher than Ukrainian may exhaust its resources before Ukraine does RU The Insider has already detailed the beginning and end of the battle for Avdiivka and provided estimates of the Russian army's losses After the town was captured this past February the Russian offensive in the Pokrovsk district of the Donetsk region continued using the same methods: large-scale mechanized assaults alternated with attacks by small infantry groups Russia’s 30-kilometer advance from the western outskirts of Avdiivka to the eastern approaches of Myrnohrad took more than six months this direction has proven to be the most successful for the Russian Armed Forces in terms of territorial gains Oryx is a military-focused project based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) It was created by two Dutch analysts who previously collaborated with the investigative project Bellingcat It is considered to be the most reliable aggregator of data on visually confirmed losses of weapons and special equipment during the war in Ukraine Multiple Launch Rocket System is a platform that launches rocket projectiles (colloquially referred to as «rockets») one after another FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles controlled by an operator using First Person View (FPV) The advantage of these systems is that the operator has a clear view of the drone's flight path (kamikaze drones are used in most cases) to fly into enclosed spaces and target specific unprotected elements of military equipment Combined arms combat is a tactics-based approach in which all forces etc.) fully interact to provide mutual support and/or jointly strike the enemy MT-LB is a Soviet multipurpose lightly armored tractor known for its high mobility It is used by both sides in the Russo-Ukrainian war for transporting cargo and personnel and as a base for makeshift and semi-makeshift installations of various weapon systems ranging from ship-based anti-aircraft machine guns to 100mm guns A «turtle tank» is an armored vehicle with makeshift additional armor that almost completely covers the hull In combination with various electronic warfare systems it provides acceptable protection against kamikaze drones and munition drops — at the cost of reduced visibility the decreased ability to rotate the turret and increased difficulty in repairs and maintenance Operational space is a military term referring to the open area behind the enemy's defensive lines where there are virtually no fortifications or reserves Gaining operational space allows the mobile units of the advancing forces to rapidly move forward after breaking through the defense «Storm» refers to assault units of up to battalion size It should not be confused with the «Storm Z» / «Storm V» prisoner units although they may also be part of the frontline «Storms.» UMPK (Universal Glide and Correction Module) is a device that allowing them to travel long distances (reportedly up to 70 km) toward a designated target It consists of wings that unfold after the bomb is released the add-on enables Russian aviation to deploy munitions while themselves remaining beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defense systems UMPB D-30SN is a Russian universal inter-service gliding munition carrying the warhead of a 250-kilogram aerial bomb it can be launched by both aircraft and multiple launch rocket systems It is essentially the Russian equivalent of the American SDB / GLSDB Due to their indiscriminate nature and the risk to civilians posed by unexploded submunitions they are banned by most countries worldwide Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) is the main unit of the Ukrainian Ground Forces It is equipped with infantry fighting vehicles or armored personnel carriers as well as tanks and other military equipment This is roughly analogous to the Russian motorized rifle brigade (MSBr) For comparison, the maximum advance during the Russian attack in northern Kharkiv in May 2024 was 10 kilometers — before the front stagnated progress has been measured in mere kilometers or even hundreds of meters Among the notable towns captured were Krasnohorivka (population 16,398 as of the 2001 census) Given the current pace of the Russian offensive even the short-term goals of the “Special Military Operation” — namely the capture of the “annexed” Donetsk Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine — are unlikely to be achieved anytime soon Experts interviewed by The Insider agree with this assessment Israeli military analyst David Handelman believes: Military expert Yan Matveyev shares a similar view: Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko points out that the most combat-ready part of the Russian forces in Ukraine was concentrated in the operational zone near Avdiivka yet even they only managed to advance 29 kilometers in a year: “Given how bloody the fighting was for these 29 kilometers how will they manage to secure the entire Donetsk region Especially when taking into account the challenge of Kostiantynivka and the fact that they've been battering Chasiv Yar for a year now they've been unable to break through for a year And that's without even mentioning the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration a colossal urban area that's been fortified since 2014.” the Russian offensive picked up speed again in August-September 2024 occupying 815 additional square kilometers — two-thirds of the total territory captured over the past ten months Ukrainian military channels and AFU fighters speaking to the media point to several reasons for this acceleration: the infiltration tactics of small Russian infantry groups Russia’s active use of drones (including to disrupt supplies and evacuations of the wounded) and a significant Russian manpower advantage Russian forces have managed to maintain their manpower advantage on key fronts despite the absence of a new wave of mobilization This is partly due to the shortage of Ukrainian reserves some of whom are deployed in the Kursk region Delayed deliveries of equipment from Western allies with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky saying that barely four of the country’s 14 newly trained brigades have been fully equipped so far While the battle for Avdiivka took five months and the assault on Novohrodivka in the Pokrovsk direction was completed in a matter of days was only made possible by months of bloody fighting in neighboring settlements the Russian offensive has not been as smooth as one might infer from Ministry of Defense reports it has been accompanied by significant losses in equipment and personnel and attempts by the Russian command to turn numerous tactical successes into operational breakthroughs have largely failed and 73 artillery systems over the past year the current — or even a faster — pace of the offensive will not be sufficient to achieve even the most immediate goals of the “Special Military Operation,” such as reaching the borders of the “annexed” regions estimates indicate that Russia’s annual production of new tanks and IFVs is limited to only a few hundred units sometimes equipped with cameras and ramps for troops and crew Some Russian pro-war commentators, discussing the capture of new settlements, note that despite breakthroughs in the Ukrainian defenses at certain points, Russian troops lack reserves to capitalize on successes and gain operational freedom This can explain the accelerated but still comparatively slow pace of the Russian advance Ukrainian forces consistently establish new defensive lines and Russian attempts to breach them only lead to even greater losses The ongoing complaints about personnel shortages stem from issues with training new recruits and the tactics used to deploy them A 2023 RUSI report on the evolution of Russian military tactics noted that some soldiers serve as “disposable” infantry whose task involves taking heavy losses while weakening Ukrainian positions to the point that a decisive assault using better trained and equipped troops can capture them While this “disposable” role was initially filled by mobilized soldiers and convicts it now seems to be assigned to the “contract” reinforcements as the Russian military has failed to establish a robust training system for new recruits which were initially conceived as elite infantry for breaching enemy defenses similar to the German stormtroopers of World War I This is how Major General Ivan Popov (currently under investigation for fraud) attempted to structure his assault units. However, today the “Storms” have essentially turned into penal battalions where servicemen who have fallen out of favor with the command are assigned a step that could partially resolve this issue Russian tactical innovations on the battlefield are primarily based on superiority in manpower. Taking advantage of the absence of a continuous front, Russian forces attempt to bypass Ukrainian positions accumulating forces for a subsequent encirclement of isolated Ukrainian units A series of tactical successes in itself holds operational significance: advancing towards Pokrovsk threatens the Ukrainian military’s railway supply lines in Donbas and reaching the Oskil River would split the Ukrainian grouping on the left bank in two the Russian assaults on Chasiv Yar and the Toretsk agglomeration could open paths to Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka — the last major cities in Donetsk region under Ukrainian control However, the Russian Armed Forces have not managed to break through the Ukrainian defenses on a large scale. One reason for this may be the lack of a second echelon of forces should be responsible for exploiting success and transforming it from a tactical to an operational breakthrough Yan Matveev believes that Russia's offensive over the past year is better understood as a series of separate operations that began and ended during that period David Hendelman believes that Russian forces still have the capacity to continue their slow-paced offensive for an extended period Ukrainian expert Oleksandr Kovalenko attributes the halt of the Russian offensive to external forces: having chosen a strategy of sustained pressure along the entire front shows a lack of what military literature refers to as “operational art” — the ability to plan and execute operations effectively This skill allows for more significant successes with fewer losses by skillfully applying forces and resources as well as demonstrating command expertise Ukrainian command displayed operational art during the planning and execution of the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive and the recent operation in the Kursk region the Russian command has opted for a war of attrition considering the scale of Russian losses in both personnel and equipment this strategy could backfire — especially if Western countries agree to increase military aid to Ukraine while removing restrictions on its use if support for Ukraine diminishes following the U.S Russia’s plan to “wear down” the Ukrainian army could ultimately succeed We really need your help! Subscribe to donations! Сделано в Charmer устарел и не позволяет корректно отображать сайт A new map shows Russia has gained territory northwest of the captured former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka as Moscow presses on with persistent attacks in the country's eastern Donetsk region described by one Ukrainian military observer as a "crisis." Geolocated footage from Tuesday shows that Russia has "marginally advanced" on the edge of the village of Sokil, northwest of Avdiivka, according to the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 much of the fiercest fighting has been concentrated along the eastern front lines Russia seized control of the Donetsk city of Bakhmut in May 2023 and then claimed another city in the region in February this year after months of bitter clashes Moscow has been making incremental gains in the time since Despite launching a fresh offensive on Ukraine from the border Belgorod region into the northeastern Ukrainian Kharkiv region in May Kyiv has reported often intensified attacks in the east particularly close to the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk The city is one of a handful that have been described as "fortress cities," key to maintaining Ukraine's defense of the Donetsk region Russian forces likely managed to take control of Novooleksandriivka and pushed on toward Lozuvatske—to the west of Novooleksandriivka—in the past few days Novooleksandriivka is directly north of Sokil "We have a full-scale tactical crisis" east of Pokrovsk Mashovets wrote in a post to messaging app Telegram Ukrainian forces will be unlikely to stem further Russian advances if Moscow brings more brigades into the fight the Ukrainian military referred to publicly available statements published by the General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces Ukraine's armed forces said Russia had attacked Ukrainian positions east of Pokrovsk 24 times over the course of the day "with the greatest activity in the Novooleksandriivka area." The situation was "tense" around Novooleksandriivka and Sokil Russian troops sustained 240 casualties near Pokrovsk over the day said in a statement posted to social media early on Wednesday that Russia was carrying out "active offensive actions of different intensity virtually throughout the front," but the main pushes were felt west of Pokrovsk and toward Kurakhove The city of Kurakhove lies southeast of Pokrovsk and immediately west of the Russian-controlled regional capital "Tough fighting in these directions has been going on for several months," Syrskyi said Russia's Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that its forces had clashed with Ukrainian troops west of Avdiivka The settlement is south of Novooleksandriivka ET: This article was updated with a response from the Ukrainian military Russia said its forces took complete control of Avdiivka a city in eastern Ukraine that was the focus of intense combat for months FILE - A Ukrainian soldier sits in his position in Avdiivka Ukrainian troops are under intense pressure from a determined Russian effort to storm the strategically important eastern Ukraine city of Avdiivka Kyiv’s army is struggling with ammunition shortages as the Kremlin’s forces pursue a battlefield triumph around the two-year anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion and ahead of a March presidential election in Russia FILE - A Ukrainian marine of 35th brigade fires by automatic grenade launcher AGS-17 towards Russian positions on the outskirts of Avdiivka speaks during a panel at the Munich Security Conference at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich The 60th Munich Security Conference (MSC) is taking place from Feb Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends a press conference with U.S Vice President Kamala Harris at the Munich Security Conference at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told the Kremlin that Russian forces were working to clear final pockets of resistance at the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant Videos on social media Saturday appeared to show soldiers raising the Russian flag over one of the plant’s buildings Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a personal message of congratulating to his troops in the city Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described Avdiivka’s capture as an “important victory.” pointing to the situation in Avdiivka after the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces said he was withdrawing troops from the city to prevent their encirclement and to save soldiers’ lives President Joe Biden said he told Zelenskyy in their Saturday phone call that he remains confident Congress will ultimately approve additional funding for Ukraine funding would come through before Ukraine loses more territory ” Biden said “There is so much on the line The idea now when they are running out of ammunition that we’re going to walk away White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson called the withdrawal “the cost of Congressional inaction.” Oleksandr Syrskyi said the Ukrainian troops were moving to “more favorable lines.” “Our soldiers performed their military duty with dignity did everything possible to destroy the best Russian military units inflicted significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment “We are taking measures to stabilize the situation and maintain our positions,” the statement read The withdrawal was Syrskyi’s first major test since his appointment this month as Ukraine’s new army chief reports emerged that Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka faced a deteriorating situation deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade said Friday that Ukrainian troops were still holding out against the onslaught of about 15,000 Russian soldiers but he expected the situation would “soon become critical.” “The enemy is trying to penetrate our defense and in some places to bypass our positions,” he told The Associated Press The 3rd Brigade said on its social media account Friday that its soldiers were at the huge Avdiivka Coke Plant Russian warplanes have been dropping about 60 bombs a day relentlessly shelling the area and launching assaults with armor and infantry A video showed dense black smoke over the factory said to be caused by burning fuel oil reservoirs The post said: “Poisonous smog spreads all over the plant.” Russian media reported the Kremlin’s forces were making extensive use of plane-launched glide bombs Fewer than 1,000 people remain in the city according to the Donetsk regional governor is today a bombed-out shell of what it once was said Thursday that taking Avdiivka would be more of a symbolic win for the Kremlin and would not bring significant changes to the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line that has barely budged in recent months “The potential Russian capture of Avdiivka would not be operationally significant and would likely only offer the Kremlin immediate informational and political victories,” the institute said in an assessment “Russian forces would be highly unlikely to make rapid operationally significant advances from Avdiivka if they captured the settlement and the potential Russian capture of Avdiivka at most would set conditions for further limited tactical gains,” it added Recent Russian gains put Moscow's forces closer to jeopardizing one of Kyiv's main supply routes for its troops in eastern Ukraine as Russia plugs on with small but steady gains on the eastern front in the war-torn country Russia's troops have likely seized Novooleksandrivka a village just over 12 miles from the Moscow-held Ukrainian city of Avdiivka the British Defense Ministry said on Tuesday Controlling the settlement allows Russia to move "closer to threatening the T-05-04 road one of the main supply routes for Ukrainian forces further east," the U.K Russia claimed the former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka close to the Russian-controlled regional capital It was the most significant win for Russia in Donetsk since it captured Bakhmut Russia has been advancing west of Avdiivka towards the strategic defensive city of Pokrovsk Despite Russia opening up a new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region in early May The T-05-04 highway links several Donetsk cities Ukrainian troops described the road in comments to The Washington Post as the "highway of life" for Kyiv's forces in Bakhmut before Russia captured the settlement last year A spokesperson for Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade told Ukrainian media on June 14 that reports Russia had captured Novooleksandrivka were "not true." Ukraine's armed forces said the area east of Pokrovsk had seen the "most fighting" since the start of the day Novopokrovske— located south of the former—and Kalynove "The situation is under the control of our defenders," Ukraine said in a statement posted to social media DeepState, a popular Ukrainian war blog that tracks changes to the frontline, indicated in recent days that Russian forces had advanced close to Novooleksandrivka and Sokil, a village immediately to the south of the settlement. The U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday that geolocated footage indicated Russia now controlled Novopokrovske Newsweek has reached out to the Ukrainian military for comment via email Russia's Defense Ministry did not reference Novooleksandrivka in its daily update on Tuesday but said its forces had attacked Ukrainian positions in settlements to the northeast of Novooleksandrivka The Russian military on Monday morning said its forces had taken control of the Avdiivka coke and chemical plant and had raised a Russian flag on the building This photo taken from video released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Monday shows an aerial view of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant Russian forces have taken complete control of the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told the Kremlin on Saturday that Russian forces were now working to clear the final pockets of resistance at the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP) In this photo released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Monday Two soldiers of the Russian military engineering units eliminate the mine danger in the city of Avdiivka Moscow officials announced Saturday said they had taken control of Avdiivka Ukrainian forces confirmed pulling out of the bombed-out city in what amounted to a triumph for the Kremlin even though the four-month battle was costly Russia is likely to keep pressing its advantage It battered Avdiivka with scores of glide bombs and relentless shelling in recent days leaving the defenders with no place to hide according to a senior Ukrainian officer involved in the battle “The positions that we were holding were just annihilated,” Rodion Kudriashov were so short of ammunition that they “had to choose between targets,” Kudriashov said they pulled back to previously prepared positions The sides were deeply uneven in favor of the Russian forces quoting Ukrainian intelligence assessments If we are talking about military vehicles it’s 1 to 8 and in terms of artillery Some Western military analysts believe that Ukraine could counter Russia’s attempt to build up on its Avdiivka success by trying to erect new defense lines in that immediate area and deploying fresh units to hold back Kremlin’s forces aid package for Ukraine is seen as crucial for a Ukrainian victory “Delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine are likely helping Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations along several sectors of the front line in order to place pressure on Ukrainian forces along multiple axes,” the Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment late Sunday Russia is pushing harder in the northeastern Kharkiv region and in southern Zaporizhia Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country “is ”doing everything possible and impossible” to defeat Russia “Ukrainians have fought heroically before but for the first time in its history Ukraine has achieved such global solidarity and support,” Zelenskyy said in his daily video address on Sunday evening Barry Hatton contributed to this report from Lisbon The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is — in the words of one U.S official — a shift in "the world order."Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all a Ukrainian soldier sits in his position in Avdiivka Ukraine — Russian troops have occupied the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka after a months-long assault that wore down Ukrainian troops running low on ammunition It's Russia's first major battlefield win since last May and a boost for Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of next month's presidential elections Ukraine's newly appointed military chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a statement that he decided to withdraw units from the embattled town to "avoid encirclement [by Russian troops] and preserve the lives and health of servicemen." President Biden acknowledged the significance of Avdiivka's fall in a call to Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday A readout of the call from the White House said Ukraine's military "was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka after Ukrainian soldiers had to ration ammunition due to dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction resulting in Russia's first notable gains in months." Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in Germany Zelenskyy said the withdrawal was "a correct decision" and that Russia achieved very little other than depleting its army by losing "thousands of soldiers." But he told Ukraine's Western allies that holding up military aid especially artillery and "long-range capabilities allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war." "We're just waiting for weapons that we're short of," he said Avdiivka, known for its large plant that produces a coal-based fuel called coke, has been resisting Russian assaults since 2014, when Russian proxies occupied parts of the eastern Donetsk region. Last October, Russian troops turned up their attacks following the takeover of another city in the region, Bakhmut The Russian assault drove out most of Avdiivka's 30,000 residents Some Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Avdiivka took to social media to describe the hellish last days of battle. "The road to Avdiivka is covered with our corpses," Viktor Biliak, who serves in the 110 Separate Mechanized Brigade, wrote on Instagram a couple of days before the withdrawal The brigade defended the city for two years Another unit, the Third Separate Assault Brigade, joined more recently. Maksym Zhorin, a major and deputy commander in that brigade, posted a video with an injured fellow soldier and described troops who ranged in age from 18 to "old men" in their 40s fighting on the frontline not in Poland picking strawberries," he said referring to men who had left Ukraine to avoid being conscripted "Our soldiers and civilians are dying as there is no munition left to protect them," she said NPR producer Hanna Palamarenko contributed reporting from Kyiv Become an NPR sponsor Russian forces lost more than 47,000 soldiers and 360 tanks in the months-long assault on the key Donetsk city of Avdiivka as Kyiv pulls its troops from the devastated settlement 364 tanks and 748 armored fighting vehicles during its offensive on Avdiivka the commander of Ukraine's Tavria grouping of forces covering Avdiivka Russian forces lost 248 artillery systems and five jets in the more than four months of bitter clashes around Avdiivka Newsweek is unable to independently verify Ukraine's statistics and has reached out the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email The figures, however, do offer an indication of the scale of the staggering price Russia's military has paid to seize Avdiivka. Moscow said on Sunday that its forces had "completely liberated" Avdiivka after months of bitter fighting said on Saturday that Kyiv's forces had retreated from Avdiivka to "avoid encirclement" and save the lives of its fighters "Our soldiers honorably fulfilled their military duty, did everything possible to destroy the best Russian military units [and] inflicted significant losses on the enemy in manpower and equipment," Syrskyi said in a statement Fighting around Avdiivka in Ukraine's annexed eastern Donetsk region earned the city the label "meat grinder," a term used to describe battlegrounds that rack up high casualty counts and absorb significant resources such as armored vehicles Ukraine has also lost many fighters and resources defending Avdiivka the city spending a decade on the front lines in the Donetsk region that Russia annexed in fall 2022 Moscow does not control all of the territory in the province Russia lost significant numbers of armored vehicles in the initial weeks of the onslaught on Avdiivka and Western analysts suggested that Moscow's forces switched to infantry-led attacks to preserve its armored materiel Tarnavskyi then said earlier in February that Russian forces were "increasingly adding armored groups to assault infantry groups" around Avdiivka The Russian military "began to use armored vehicles more often for offensive actions on Avdiivka," Captain Dmytro Lykhovii a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces The British Defense Ministry assessed on Friday that Russia had lost at least 400 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in its long-running assault on Avdiivka "Ukrainian defenders inflicted huge losses on the enemy and destroyed a significant reserve of the Russian occupiers which they planned to use in other areas of the front for offensive actions," Tarnavskyi said on Sunday But capturing Avdiivka is a prize for Moscow It allows Russia to expand its logistical operations and could pave the way towards other important settlements further west Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on February 27 ISW will cover subsequent reports in the February 28 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Russian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a relatively high tempo of offensive operations aimed at pushing as far as possible in the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area Russian forces temporarily decreased their tempo of operations as they cleared Avdiivka following the Russian seizure of the settlement on February 17 Russian forces are likely continuing attempts to advance in order to deprive Ukrainian forces of the respite that would allow Ukraine to establish a more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive line in the immediate vicinity of Avdiivka The seizure of Avdiivka has allowed Russian forces to press on positions that Ukrainian forces have manned for a shorter period than Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka or further west and Russian forces are likely sustaining a high operational tempo to try to exploit this tactical opportunity Russian forces may be able to seize settlements immediately west and northwest of Avdiivka in the coming weeks but terrain and water features further west of Avdiivka particularly the body of water that runs between Berdychi-Semenivka-Orlivka will likely slow the already relatively slow rate of Russian advances in the area This difficult terrain will likely constrain further Russian tactical gains and allow Ukrainian forces to establish prepared defensive positions that will likely prompt the eventual culmination of the current Russian offensive effort in the area at least until or unless the Russians reinforce their attacking elements.[7] Russian forces are likely attempting to create an operational maneuver force for the exploitation of recent Russian advances in the Avdiivka direction The Avdiivka-Donetsk axis is a relatively narrower AOR compared to the AORs of other Russian force groupings in Ukraine and this focused responsibility suggests that the Russian military command likely intends for CMD elements to continue offensive efforts in the Avdiivka area in the near and medium term The Russian command likely hopes that the reorganization of command structures will establish more cohesive Russian grouping of forces throughout the theater in Ukraine Russian forces recently reorganized the command structure of the Russian grouping of forces in southern Ukraine the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova are unlikely to pose a military threat to Ukraine and will more likely impact Moldova’s European Union (EU) integration prospects Ukrainian officials stated that Russian drones flew into Moldovan airspace on the night of February 26-27 during a Russian strike series targeting Ukrainian rear areas.[15] The Moldovan Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied that any drones flew over Moldova.[16] ISW continues to assess that the Russian forces currently in Transnistria are not capable of posing a meaningful military threat to Ukraine without reinforcements which Russia has no likely way of bringing to Transnistria rapidly or at scale and ISW has not observed any clear indications of Russian military preparations to intervene in Transnistria or Moldova more generally.[17] The flight of a drone over Moldovan airspace has more direct implications for Moldovan sovereignty than for Ukrainian security ISW is amending its warning forecast in light of continued Transnistrian officials’ statements that the upcoming Congress of Transnistrian Deputies will discuss Moldovan economic policies likely related to changes to Moldova’s Customs Code that went into effect on January 1 2024.[18] ISW issued a warning forecast on February 22 and assessed that Transnistrian officials may call for a referendum on annexation to Russia during the Congress of Transnistrian Deputies on February 28 to support Russian hybrid operations intent on politically and socially destabilizing Moldova.[19] The last Congress of Transnistrian Deputies was convened in March 2006 at which Transnistrian deputies decided to hold a referendum on Transnistria’s independence and future subsequent annexation into Russia.[20] The 2006 congress similarly occurred a few weeks after Ukraine imposed new customs regulations on Transnistria.[21] While the referendum received overwhelming popular support in 2006 neither Russia nor Transnistria advanced legal mechanisms for annexation at that time but Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky stated on February 24 that customs payments to the Transnistrian budget still decreased by 18 percent since the start of 2024.[24] Major actors in Transnistria have varying economic and political interests The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP) previously assessed that Transnistria is a mafia state run by Viktor Gushan whose company Sheriff Enterprises controls a majority of the Transnistrian economy and receives large portions of Transnistria’s government spending.[25] Gushan’s businesses have been heavily oriented towards the EU after Moldova signed a trade deal with the EU in 2014 that guaranteed tariff-free access to EU markets Gushan’s businesses would also benefit from the reestablishment of good Ukrainian-Transnistrian relations as Transnistria imported and exported most of its goods through Ukraine until Ukraine closed those borders in 2022 due to Russia's full-scale invasion — facts that would give Gushan good reason to oppose Transnistrian annexation into Russia for economic reasons EU officials have indicated that Moldova could join the EU without Transnistria.[26] Gushan may prefer a Western-oriented Moldova in which Transnistria enjoys special tax exceptions over annexation into Russia or Moldovan EU membership without Transnistria is unlikely to reverse its customs code changes given its current commitment to joining the EU and his preferences are unclear at this time ISW will provide an update following the Congress of Deputies on February 28 Russia may also hope to exploit a hybrid play in Transnistria taking advantage of recent developments Gushan likely competes with the Transnistrian Ministry of State Security (MGB) reportedly a “department” of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that takes orders from the Kremlin.[27] Citizens of both Russian-influenced regions of Moldova — Transnistria and Gagauzia — notably recently protested Moldova’s new Customs Code.[28] Russia may attempt to exploit domestic opposition to Moldovan policies to sow instability in Moldova and delay Moldova’s accession to the EU Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to highlight recent Russian tactical successes in Ukraine as substantial battlefield victories for political purposes ahead of the upcoming Russian presidential election ISW currently assesses that Russian forces have captured closer to 205 square kilometers since January 1 and Shoigu likely deliberately overstated Russian territorial gains Shoigu’s promotion of the Russian capture of very small settlements of limited tactical significance suggests that the Russian MoD is trying to emphasize even such small gains to present an image of a constantly advancing Russian military All three of the settlements that Shoigu chose to prominently highlight are comprised of small semi-urban areas spanning a few blocks so Russian forces’ capture of these settlements was a very tactical endeavor ISW recently assessed that the Russian MoD is likely trying to play up recent tactical gains to generate positive informational effects before the March 2024 presidential election.[30] Shoigu additionally highlighted Russia’s Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD) to posture against supposed anti-Russian activity in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific.[31] Shoigu discussed security challenges emanating from Central Asia specifically highlighting threats from Afghanistan a purported increase in the number of Islamic State fighters in the region and the spread of “radical ideology and subversive activities” targeted at the southern borders of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Shoigu claimed that the CMD will focus efforts on responding to various “crisis situations” in the Central Asian region through military exercises with CSTO member states Shoigu also emphasized that the CMD is equipped with Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Tornado-G MLRS systems Iskander-M and Tornado-Gs are not weapons systems particularly appropriate for responding to terrorist threats Shoigu was more likely highlighting the capabilities of the CMD in this region to posture and project the impression of Russian military power and tacitly to threaten retaliation in the case of any perceived anti-Russian activities in this region Shoigu also accused the US of fomenting tensions in the Indo-Pacific region and claimed that the EMD is increasing its combat capabilities in response to rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula and around Taiwan Shoigu also likely intended to project the image of Russian military might into the Indo-Pacific and tacitly threaten the US for its own efforts in this region while also supporting efforts to portray itself as an equal Indo-Pacific security partner for China and military district-level assets are currently heavily committed in Ukraine and the Russian military command may feel this vulnerability in Russia’s ability to protect its southern and eastern flanks or play the role that the Kremlin desires to play in the geopolitics of both regions Ukrainian forces have reportedly shot down two Russian Su-34s on February 27 the tenth downed Russian military aircraft within roughly as many days The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces downed two Russian Su-34 fighter jets on February 27 at least one of which was downed in eastern Ukraine.[32] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on February 21 that Ukrainian forces have downed seven Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets since February 16.[33] The February 27 Su-34 shoot-downs are likely connected with Russian glide bomb strikes in Donetsk Oblast particularly near Avdiivka as Russian forces use heavy glide bomb strikes in an attempt to exploit gains in the Avdiivka area Ukraine’s downing of a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on February 23 has likely constrained Russian strategic reconnaissance capabilities Ihnat stated that Russian forces have not deployed another A-50 over the Sea of Azov since the downing and have increased their use of aerial reconnaissance drones across the theater to compensate.[34] Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on February 27 that the ongoing Russian information campaign to demoralize Ukrainian society will intensify between March and May 2024.[35] The SBU reported that the information campaign which they call “Maidan-3," intends to sow panic and discontent among the Ukrainian population and drive a wedge between civilians and military and political leadership The Ukrainian Presidential Intelligence Committee reported that Russia has spent a total of $1.5 billion on this information campaign (including $250 million on information operations on the Telegram messaging app alone) and noted that this spending is on par with Russia’s spending on conventional military activities The SBU noted that the information campaign will intensify from March to May 20 2024 to exploit the Ukrainian political situation and foment distrust in and discontent with the Ukrainian government The March to May timeline is significant—if Russia had not illegally invaded Ukraine the Ukrainian presidential election would have been scheduled to occur on March 31 2024 is the fifth anniversary of Zelensky’s inauguration.[36] Russia appears to be pursuing this extremely costly information campaign to undermine trust in Ukrainian leadership and spread discontent with the aim of weakening Ukrainian society Russia likely tested an element of its Sovereign Internet on February 27 likely in an effort to strengthen control over individual aspects of the Russian information space Russian sources reported several widespread outages of prominent social media platforms on February 27 and later reported that service has since been restored.[37] Russian sources also reported that Russians were able to access some blocked social media platforms during the outage.[38] Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Deputy Head Anton Tkachev stated that Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor caused the outage while testing and reconfiguring gateways to identify and close “bottlenecks” to prohibited content.[39] BBC Russian Service quoted Russian organization ”Network Freedoms” as saying that Roskomnadzor may have been adjusting settings related to “technical means of countering threats” (TSPU) and WhatsApp parent company Meta as a “terrorist” organization and Telegram has refused to comply with some of the Kremlin’s more extensive censorship measures.[42]   We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Positional fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on February 27 but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this the area A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 500 meters deep north of Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk) and 300 meters deep west of Kreminna near Terny and Torske although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.[43] Positional fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; northwest of Svatove near Ivanivka wherein Russian forces initially attack for a period then decrease the tempo of their offensive operations after suffering losses to regroup and replenish and then later intensify assaults once again.[46] ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces likely intend to alternate the intensity of operations along the entire Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in a staggered manner in order to allow Russian forces to periodically regroup and prepare for future assaults.[47] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division’s 283rd and 388th motorized rifle regiments (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA] Western Military District [WMD]) and elements of the 25th CAA’s 31st and 37th motorized rifle regiments and 19th Tank Regiment reportedly continue to operate west of Kreminna near Yampolivka and Terny.[48]   Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of changes to the frontline in this area A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in southern Krasnohorivka and northwest of Marinka (both west of Donetsk City).[62] Milbloggers additionally claimed that Russian forces advanced within eastern Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City) although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of recent Russian advances in Novomykhailivka.[63] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported continued positional engagements west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Novomykhailivka and Pobieda.[64] Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on February 27 but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued near Vuhledar; south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske and Urozhaine; southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Malynivka; and southeast of Hulyaipole near Marfopil.[65]   Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on February 27 Ukrainian and Russian forces stated that positional engagements continued near Robotyne and Verbove (east of Robotyne).[66] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces may have seized Robotyne but noted that this information is still unconfirmed.[67] Other milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces still maintain positions in Robotyne and ISW has not observed visual evidence showing that Russian forces have completely captured the settlement.[68] Elements of the Chechen ”Vostok” Akhmat Battalion are reportedly operating near Robotyne.[69]   Positional engagements continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky on February 27.[70]   Ukrainian officials continued to highlight the structural inferiority of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) base in Novorossiysk Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated on February 27 that Russian forces are still loading Kalibr missile systems on ships and submarines at the Russian naval base in occupied Sevastopol Crimea because the base in Novorossisyk lacks the capacity to handle such missiles.[71] Pletenchuk also stated that the Novorossisyk base has less space for ships to dock and lacks the infrastructure to house Russian personnel and their families and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline) The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and North Korean-provided Kn-23 missiles and 13 Shahed-136/131 drones on the night of February 26 to 27 and that Ukrainian forces shot down two Kh-59s and 11 Shaheds over Kharkiv and Kirovohrad oblasts.[72] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have used a “qualitatively different approach” in the strikes over the past few days and are targeting Ukrainian aviation infrastructure.[73] ISW has observed Russian forces employing various strike packages against Ukrainian infrastructure over the past several days Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization) A Ukrainian official warned that Russia seeks to ramp up forcible mobilization efforts in occupied Ukraine following the formal integration of occupied Ukrainian territories into the Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Ukrainian Berdyansk Military Administration Head Viktoriya Halitsyna reported on February 27 that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decree incorporating occupied Ukraine into the SMD enters into force on March 1 after which Russia will formally conduct mobilization and conscription in occupied Ukraine until April 1.[74] These efforts likely aim to bolster Russia’s ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts in Russia and occupied Ukraine and do not likely reflect a broader Russian willingness to conduct another wave of mobilization Russia’s forcible mobilization of a population it occupies is likely a violation of international law.[75] South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik reportedly stated on February 27 that North Korea munitions factories are operating at full capacity to supply munitions to Russia.[76] South Korean news agency Yonhap News Agency cited Shin as estimating that North Korea has shipped 6,700 containers of munitions and equipment to Russia since September 2023 enough to hold up to three million 152mm artillery rounds or 500,000 122mm artillery rounds Shin reportedly stated that North Korea’s weapons factories are only operating at 30 percent capacity due to supply shortages Shin reportedly stated that Russia appears to be supplying North Korea with food raw materials and parts for weapons manufacturing and likely satellite-related technology in exchange for the weapons deliveries Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine) Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US Ukraine’s European partners continue efforts to source and finance artillery shells for Ukraine Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala stated that 15 European states are involved in the Czech Republic’s initiative to source weapons for Ukraine from outside of EU member states.[77] Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte stated that the composition of this coalition is classified information but that the Netherlands has allocated more than 100 million euros (about $108 million) to this initiative.[78] French President Emmanuel Macron stated that he also supports this initiative.[79] Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural Russian authorities are reportedly systematizing the adoption of deported Ukrainian children in Russia Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on February 27 that Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.[80] The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture The program reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.” Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children likely amounts to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide The Russian Red Cross (RRC) is reportedly functioning as a Kremlin propaganda tool in occupied Ukraine and does not have the proper mandate to operate in war zones like the International Committee of the Red Cross.[81] A group of Russian and European media outlets published an investigation into the RRC based on leaked Russian Presidential Administration documents The RRC has reportedly worked with and awarded organizations under sanctions for raising funds for or providing weapons to the Russian military RRC employees have also reportedly issued pro-Russian statements publicly The investigation stated that the RRC set up organizations under its name including the “Donetsk Red Cross” and “Luhansk Red Cross,” in order to portray Russia’s occupation of Ukraine in a more positive light The RRC also reportedly had access to Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and refugees Ukrainian sources stated that Ukrainian partisans reportedly detonated explosive devices at the office of the United Russia party in occupied Nova Kakhovka Kherson Oblast that will also operate as polling stations in the upcoming Russian presidential election.[82] Russian Information Operations and Narratives Russian officials accused Ukrainian special forces of using a “chemical warfare agent” in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast on February 27 likely to deflect from Ukrainian reports about widespread Russian use of chemical weapons along the frontline.[83] Russian officials did not identify the specific “chemical warfare agent “that they accused Ukrainian forces of using Ukrainian officials have repeatedly reported that Russian forces are increasing their use of illegal chemical weapons in Ukraine in an apparent violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to which Russia is a signatory.[84] The Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade recently acknowledged in a now-deleted post that elements of the brigade deliberately used K-51 grenades with riot control agents (RCAs) prohibited by the CWC on Ukrainian positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.[85] Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus) Nothing significant to report Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update   [1] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021724 [2] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/02/27/rosiyany-zbilshyly-rozmiry-svoyih-shturmovyh-pidrozdiliv-na-tavrijskomu-napryamku/ [4] https://t.me/otarnavskiy/540 ; https://suspilne dot media/693300-paket-dopomogi-vid-nimeccini-vihid-sil-oboroni-z-sela-lastockine-734-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1709042686&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/02/27/syly-oborony-ukrayiny-vidijshly-z-dvoh-sil-na-avdiyivskomu-napryamku/ [5] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1661 ; https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1762421448985997744 [6] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62847 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/114585 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18442 ; https://t.me/basurin_e/9313 ; https://t.me/multi_XAM/1385 [9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis [10] https://isw.pub/UkrWar022424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021724 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36093; https://t.me/mod_russia/36089; [12] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis [14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-8-2023 [15] https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/6587 ; https://suspilne dot media/693300-paket-dopomogi-vid-nimeccini-vihid-sil-oboroni-z-sela-lastockine-734-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1709022800&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps [17] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/warning-transnistria-may-organize-referendum-annexation-russia-support-russian-hybrid [18] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2024 ; https://www.ng dot ru/cis/2024-02-21/1_8954_transnistria.html ; https://eadaily dot com/ru/news/2024/02/22/pridnestrove-otkroet-kievu-transportnyy-koridor-za-pomoshch-v-dialoge-s-kishinevom ; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/2007122 [19] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates [20] https://neweasterneurope dot eu/2013/10/30/the-new-old-moldovan-transnistrian-border-conflict/ ; https://novostipmr dot com/ru/news/24-02-26/sezdy-narodnyh-deputatov-vseh-urovney-v-istorii-pridnestrovya [21] https://neweasterneurope dot eu/2013/10/30/the-new-old-moldovan-transnistrian-border-conflict/ ; https://novostipmr dot com/ru/news/24-02-26/sezdy-narodnyh-deputatov-vseh-urovney-v-istorii-pridnestrovya [24] https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91460 ; https://ria dot ru/20240224/krasnoselskiy-1928959453.html [25] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/what-russias-failed-coercion-of-transnistria-means-for-the-annexation-of-occupied-territory-in-ukraine [26] https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/european-political-community-press-remarks-high-representativevice-president-josep-borrell-upon_en [27] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/what-russias-failed-coercion-of-transnistria-means-for-the-annexation-of-occupied-territory-in-ukraine [28] https://t.me/disputPmrRu/13853 ; https://newsmaker dot md/ro/gagauzia-este-puternica-vs-traiasca-moldova-si-tara-romaneasca-protest-si-contra-protest-la-curtea-constitutionala/ [29] https://telegra dot ph/Vstupitelnoe-slovo-Ministra-oborony-RF-generala-armii-Sergeya-SHojgu-na-zasedanii-Kollegii-Minoborony-Rossii-02-27 [30] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024 [31] https://telegra dot ph/Vstupitelnoe-slovo-Ministra-oborony-RF-generala-armii-Sergeya-SHojgu-na-zasedanii-Kollegii-Minoborony-Rossii-02-27 [32] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid08YosZsS82KWyNiXw4L2QcfRM4TgNZH1ZH4XPZq1SJMuQNh5eY9bZB8uxhyC7T4e5l; https://t.me/MykolaOleshchuk/210; [33] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/02/21/yurij-ignat-vidreaguvav-na-znyshhennya-7-rosijskyh-litakiv-za-5-dniv-zhartom-pro-putina/ [34] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/02/27/vorog-pidnyav-v-povitrya-rekordnu-kilkist-rozviduvalnyh-bpla/; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/02/27/vzhe-try-doby-rosiyany-ne-pidnimayut-v-povitrya-litak-a-50/ [35] https://ssu.gov dot ua/novyny/zaiava-komitetu-z-pytan-rozvidky-pry-prezydentovi-ukrainy [36] https://www.pravda.com dot ua/eng/news/2024/02/27/7443998/ [38] https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-internet-outages-social-media/32837658.html; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/114589 [39] https://t.me/bbcrussian/61310; https://t.me/bbcrussian/61284; https://twitter.com/bbcrussian/status/1762532069966565460 [40] https://t.me/bbcrussian/61310; https://t.me/bbcrussian/61284; https://twitter.com/bbcrussian/status/1762532069966565460 [41] https://t.me/bbcrussian/61310; https://t.me/bbcrussian/61284; https://twitter.com/bbcrussian/status/1762532069966565460 [42] https://www.reuters.com/technology/meta-asks-russian-court-dismiss-proceedings-extremism-case-reports-2022-03-21/; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-5-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2024 [43] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/7730 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/7736 [45] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/02/27/na-lymanskomu-napryamku-vorog-namagayetsya-vluchyty-aviabombamy-u-tanky/ [46] https://suspilne dot media/693300-paket-dopomogi-vid-nimeccini-vihid-sil-oboroni-z-sela-lastockine-734-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1709030873&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps [47] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis [48] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1660 (Yampolivka and Terny) [49] https://t.me/rybar/57610; https://t.me/rybar/57616; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/7716; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/7719; https://t.me/multi_XAM/1378; https://t.me/wargonzo/18442; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/114585; https://t.me/multi_XAM/1387 [50] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/02/27/na-bahmutskomu-napryamku-vorog-kynuv-v-bij-kadyrivcziv/ [52] https://t.me/rybar/57610; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/7716 [54] . https://suspilne dot media/693300-paket-dopomogi-vid-nimeccini-vihid-sil-oboroni-z-sela-lastockine-734-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1709042686&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/02/27/syly-oborony-ukrayiny-vidijshly-z-dvoh-sil-na-avdiyivskomu-napryamku/ [55] https://t.me/mod_russia/36093; https://t.me/mod_russia/36089 [56] https://suspilne dot media/693300-paket-dopomogi-vid-nimeccini-vihid-sil-oboroni-z-sela-lastockine-734-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1709042686&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/02/27/syly-oborony-ukrayiny-vidijshly-z-dvoh-sil-na-avdiyivskomu-napryamku/; https://t.me/otarnavskiy/540 [58] https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1762498923846115533; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1762499872736129327; https://t.me/shershen_ua/170; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4568 [59] https://t.me/rybar/57616; https://t.me/z_arhiv/26146; https://t.me/dva_majors/35305 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/35309; https://t.me/tass_agency/233639; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62829; https://t.me/multi_XAM/1378; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/7732; https://t.me/wargonzo/18442 [61] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4566; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/62838; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/7710; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1661; https://t.me/sashakots/45247 [62] https://t.me/rybar/57613; https://t.me/rybar/57616 [63] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/114585; https://t.me/multi_XAM/1378 [64] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0PPAcjisjZEP2iWPPTv5JD5wtB61gqgZ4yUbhTBktn2vRnPYWyA61bn4MqakNwfsbl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0M1zswAvoXZ54Ht7sTntDbPC2BvuLv9VWHivnKGdmeFp5DkEvpRgi3PmtboySJhHyl; https://t.me/mod_russia/36092; https://t.me/mod_russia/36089; https://t.me/mod_russia/36075; https://t.me/rybar/57616; https://t.me/multi_XAM/1378; https://t.me/wargonzo/18442 [65] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0PPAcjisjZEP2iWPPTv5JD5wtB61gqgZ4yUbhTBktn2vRnPYWyA61bn4MqakNwfsbl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36094; https://t.me/mod_russia/36089 [66] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0PPAcjisjZEP2iWPPTv5JD5wtB61gqgZ4yUbhTBktn2vRnPYWyA61bn4MqakNwfsbl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029rVRpLCsnuAdUkdmTpmJg6p4vTmF6eDxyUpqMuPGYTXWtjF2rEBhR1PhXaRQWKM9l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0M1zswAvoXZ54Ht7sTntDbPC2BvuLv9VWHivnKGdmeFp5DkEvpRgi3PmtboySJhHyl ; https://t.me/mod_russia/36095; https://t.me/mod_russia/36090 ; https://t.me/rybar/57630 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/18442 [68] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/114585 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/7734 [70] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0PPAcjisjZEP2iWPPTv5JD5wtB61gqgZ4yUbhTBktn2vRnPYWyA61bn4MqakNwfsbl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid029rVRpLCsnuAdUkdmTpmJg6p4vTmF6eDxyUpqMuPGYTXWtjF2rEBhR1PhXaRQWKM9l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0M1zswAvoXZ54Ht7sTntDbPC2BvuLv9VWHivnKGdmeFp5DkEvpRgi3PmtboySJhHyl [71] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/02/27/u-vms-zsu-vkazaly-na-dyvnyj-fakt-iz-systemoyu-zavantazhennya-raket-kalibr-u-protyvnyka/ [72] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid026ggzZEzBLrQZPPrnUinj4tDDMtgaeDGi8BSGzCUMavdSFxdZqKy8REKgmJWRVE2Ml; https://t.me/kpszsu/11180 [75] https://guide-humanitarian-law.org/content/article/3/occupied-territory/ [76] https://en.yna dot co.kr/view/AEN20240227002800315 [77] https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3832934-iniciativu-pro-zakupivlu-boepripasiv-dla-ukraini-za-mezami-evropi-pidtrimuut-15-krain-premer-cehii.html [78] https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3832857-niderlandi-vidilaut-ponad-100-miljoniv-na-cesku-iniciativu-sodo-boepripasiv-dla-ukraini.html [79] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/france-and-netherlands-back-plan-to-buy-non-eu-ammo-for-ukraine?srnd=politics-vp [80] https://storage.googleapis.com/istories/stories/2024/02/27/trudnosti-v-mezhnatsionalnikh-razlichiyakh/index.html [81] https://meduza dot io/news/2024/02/27/ih-zadacha-opravdyvat-bezuslovnoe-nasilie-podolyak-o-rabote-rossiyskogo-krasnogo-kresta-na-okkupirovannyh-territoriyah-meduza-vypustila-ob-etom-rassledovanie ; https://meduza dot io/feature/2024/02/27/nas-nazyvali-ukrainskimi-svinyami ; https://news.yahoo.com/media-investigation-kremlin-uses-russian-085343452.html [82] https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=7312264238894921&set=a.468508653270548 ; https://sprotyv dot mod.gov.ua/u-novij-kahovtsi-ruh-oporu-pidirvav-shtab-partiyi-putina/ ; https://suspilne dot media/693412-na-tot-hersonsini-u-novij-kahovci-predstavniki-ruhu-oporu-pidirvali-ofis-partii-edina-rosia/ [83] https://t.me/tass_agency/233617; https://t.me/tass_agency/233618 ; https://t.me/vrogov/14502 ; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/14480; https://t.me/astrapress/49404 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/233688 ; https://t.me/vrogov/14502 [85] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-24-2023 We don’t flood you with panic-inducing headlines or race to be first We focus on being useful to you — breaking down the news in ways that inform We rely on readers like you to fund our journalism Will you support our work and become a Vox Member today What Ukraine’s biggest setback in months tells us about the future of the war by Joshua Keating LinkUkrainian soldiers in the outskirts of Avdiivka on February 14, 2024. Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty ImagesJoshua Keating is a senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy and world news with a focus on the future of international conflict. He is the author of the 2018 book, Invisible Countries: Journeys to the Edge of Nationhood Russian forces made their most significant breakthrough in nine months — but at a heavy cost it’s natural to wonder whether Avdiivka — not even one of the larger cities in Donetsk province much less Ukraine — was a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians the Russians demonstrated that with enough time almost entirely demolishing it in the process But is this a sustainable strategy for victory over the second-largest country “I do not think it’s sustainable but it is what I think that they’ll do,” retired Lt saying the war would come down to whether Ukraine could count on continued Western support “They’ll do it because they can see that we are starting to waver.” The key factor when it comes to understanding Avdiivka is not so much size The loss comes at a time when international support for Ukraine It raises stark questions about what it will take from Kyiv and its international backers to keep Ukraine in the fight The Ukrainians may be able to stabilize the front line in the coming months but without significant additional support Avdiivka is unlikely to be the last city to fall Avdiivka was “not a mere symbolic Russian victory,” said Franz-Stefan Gady an Austrian military analyst with the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) who travels regularly to the front lines in Ukraine The town lies less than 10 miles from the Russian-held city of Donetsk the capital of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic The loss will put the city much farther out of range for any future Ukrainian counteroffensive “Ukraine is losing an important strongpoint that anchored Ukrainian defenses in the area It could potentially open up new avenues of attack for Russian forces,” Gady added Understand the world with a daily explainer plus the most compelling stories of the day Analysts also pointed out, though, that given the exhaustion of Russian troops after taking the city, they would be unlikely to be able to press further into Ukrainian-held territory. In a recent assessment, the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian forces would likely be able to set up new defensive positions just a few miles beyond the city forcing the Russian offensive to culminate here “Battlefield results are measured in the ability to turn a local success into a bigger one,” Mykola Bielieskov an analyst with the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies “The Russians won’t be able to do that after pushing us out of Avdiivka They lack reserves and have been exhausted from a five-month fight.” But even though Kyiv and its foreign backers don’t publicize Ukrainian casualty numbers, it’s clear the Ukrainians took heavy losses as well. A recent New York Times account based on interviews with Ukrainian troops describes a chaotic retreat from the city in which hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers may have been captured Unverified images on social media show some of these prisoners being executed The outcome is likely to contribute to already serious morale problems at the front and add to Ukraine’s difficulty in recruiting new troops Avdiivka was a long and draining fight for both sides and though it’s likely the Russian losses in the battle were far greater Ukraine may have less of an ability to absorb those losses The battle for Avdiivka may have taken place in the fields surrounding the city but the road to defeat may well have started in Washington The biggest problem is artillery ammunition: Last summer, Ukraine was firing more artillery shells than Russia per month. Now with supply shortages, it is firing less than a fifth of what the Russians can put out according to Britain’s Royal United Services Institute then courage alone will not be enough to win,” said Yehor Cherniev a member of the Ukrainian Parliament and deputy chair of its national security committee Cherniev said it was “cynical” of opponents of military aid to point to losses like Avdiivka as evidence that Ukraine can’t win and then they lament that it has lost a populated area and claim that Russia cannot be defeated,” he said The White House has placed the blame for the defeat squarely on congressional Republicans National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters in a call on Monday that Avdiivka was not lost because Ukrainian troops lacked skill or training: “It was because of congressional inaction We’ve been warning Congress that if they didn’t act Ukraine would suffer losses on the battlefield That’s what happened this weekend.” Avdiivka may be only a sign of things to come if aid does not resume Asked by Vox if Ukraine could continue to rely on US support for the long term but Trump is causing Republicans to walk away from Ukraine This [US] election will be definitive as to whether or not Ukraine survives.” counter that no amount of US aid could turn the tide given Russia’s overwhelming advantages in terms of soldiers and industrial capacity “The West doesn’t make enough munitions to support an indefinite war. Ukraine doesn’t have enough manpower to support an indefinite war,” he told Politico on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference this week It is true that Ukraine’s forces face significant personnel shortages, and that the government has been reluctant to pass controversial legislation that would expand conscription and crack down on draft dodging “They have failed to make the necessary political decisions to do this,” said Hodges “I think not only is that a problem for them on the battlefield but it also will begin to undermine some Western support.” Stabilizing the front lines after the withdrawal from Avdiivka will be an early test for Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi who took over as commander of Ukraine’s armed forces this month the Russians have been concentrating forces for what appears to be an attempt to break through Ukraine’s lines in another area by retaking territory around the southern city of Robotyne one of the rare successes of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive “One of the problems with the end of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is that much of the terrain that was seized was not particularly defensible terrain,” the analyst Rob Lee wrote on Twitter CNAS’s Gady said it’s likely there could be “more tactical withdrawals in the coming weeks,” as Ukrainian commanders work to stabilize the situation Beyond the next few weeks, 2024 is likely to be a rebuilding year for Ukraine, as they restore battered units, train new ones, and wait for more aid to arrive. European ammunition production is finally starting to ramp up though at a much slower rate than Ukrainians hoped last year The US reportedly has artillery systems and ammunition ready to send to Ukraine immediately if and when Congress approves funding and is also leaning toward supplying long-range ATACMS missiles and which the Ukrainians say will give them a better ability to disrupt Russian supplies and logistics this is ultimately a war over territory that comes down to Ukraine’s ability to defend it Russia will probably still be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another two to three years It’s clear that this will be a much longer war and a contest of industrial capacity and political will as much as military maneuvers But even getting to that marathon will require Ukraine getting past a very difficult period in the coming months Gady said a complete collapse of Ukraine’s defenses was not entirely out of the question but still unlikely: “There are going to be a couple months where the situation is really dire for Ukraine This story appeared originally in Today, Explained, Vox’s flagship daily newsletter. Sign up here for future editions China has a plan to win Trump’s trade warToday, Explained newsletterMay 5Trump promised his tariffs would create jobs. They’re already destroying them.Auto workers supported tariffs to protect their jobs How a terrorist attack put the neighbors on the armed conflict It could be a brand-new day for Canadian politics Examining what’s underneath the “Republican makeup” look World PoliticsApr 16China has a plan to win Trump’s trade warChina came to Trump’s trade war ready to fight. Ukrainian officials say situation ‘very difficult’ but ‘not catastrophic’ amid loss of two villages and fighting in Ocheretyne Russia has consolidated recent battlefield gains in the east of Ukraine and is attempting to break through Ukrainian defensive lines before a long-awaited package of US military assistance arrives at the frontline On Sunday Russian troops advanced near the city of Avdiivka. They seized two villages and expanded a narrow corridor around the rural settlement of Ocheretyne, which the Russians entered a week ago. Ukrainian security officials described the situation in the Donbas region where Russia is attacking on multiple fronts as “very difficult” The fighting in Ocheretyne followed a surprise Russian attack The manoeuvre enabled Russian combat units to bypass a network of Ukrainian trenches and to establish a salient They have since overrun neighbouring hamlets – Solovyove and Novokalynove – and are attempting to push farther west Ukraine’s eastern command said its forces controlled two-thirds of Ocheretyne Russia seized Avdiivka in February after Ukrainian troops withdrew. Moscow’s forces have been advancing ever since Russian brigades have come within about 18 miles (30km) of the city of Pokrovsk they are assaulting the town of Chasiv Yar using airdropped glide bombs to pound Ukrainian positions “Right now things are not critical or catastrophic But it’s very difficult,” one senior security official in Kyiv said on Sunday The person said it would take “one to two months” before $61bn of US military aid reached frontline troops and allowed them to counter Russian attacks Some weapons such as 155mm artillery ammunition would arrive sooner According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) the Kremlin is seeking to exploit a window of opportunity before US assistance is delivered Moscow has been bringing in reinforcements and has a threefold advantage in some sectors Its recent tactical gains suggest an ambitious plan to encircle the Ukrainian garrison cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in a summer offensive Russia is unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defences It observed: “The arrival of US aid at the front in the coming weeks will allow the Ukrainian forces to address their current materiel constraints and blunt ongoing Russian offensive operations Russian forces appear to be intensifying efforts to destabilise Ukrainian defences and gain ground.” Security officials believe Vladimir Putin’s original war aims are unchanged more than two years after his full-scale invasion Kharkiv and Odesa and occupying Ukraine’s southern Black Sea coast They assess that Russia will not be able to storm Kharkiv a city of more than 1 million people close to the Russian border but will continue to bomb and to threaten it The officials suggest the next few months will be critical Ukrainian service personnel complain that they are completely outgunned Russia is able to fire at least six shells for every salvo sent by Ukraine in return Stocks of Soviet-era anti-aircraft missiles ran out long ago with Russian warplanes able to operate freely close to the frontline Ukraine has fewer tanks and armoured vehicles In recent months Moscow has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian infrastructure A missile attack on Saturday hammered power facilities in central and western Ukraine the country’s largest private electricity company said four of its six thermal power plants were damaged Rescuers put out fires at energy facilities in the western regions of Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk Russian drones hit a hotel in the southern port city of Mykolaiv Russia claimed it was targeting “English-speaking mercenaries”. It used the same formula to describe ballistic missile strikes earlier this year on hotels in Kharkiv where several foreign journalists and local staff were injured Russia said it shot down 17 enemy drones above its territory There were unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian military had struck a Russian air defence unit at Cape Tarkhankut Long-range Atacms missiles supplied this month by the US were used Explosions were reported in the northern Crimean town of Dzhankoye, after a previous attack there on an airfield and Russian missile launcher system Ukraine’s armed forces frequently carry out strikes on Crimea and have used sea drones to drive out Russian’s Black Sea fleet from the port of Sevastopol. Intelligence officials indicate they intend to blow up the road and rail bridge connecting the occupied peninsula with Russia On Sunday, Lithuania’s former foreign minister Linas Linkevičius joked that the bridge would soon vanish, posting on X: “If someone hasn’t had time to take a photo on the Kerch Bridge, there is still time,” with photos of a rocket and Putin scratching his head. Moscow was furious. Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s representative to the UN, called Linkevičius an “obedient Baltic slave of the USA”. The Russian diplomat said the former minister – now Lithuania’s ambassador to Sweden – would regret his words on “judgment day”. SupportEN Denis BulavinJournalist "We decided to bury the war, to close it behind my glass and stone walls. To make it a memory and a lesson of the past. I failed. From above the clouds, new exhibits landed on my roof," says the voice of the Avdiivka museum in the eponymous short film The Avdiivka Folk History Museum used to operate on 11 Komunalna Street you won't see its operating hours on Google Maps the museum was revived in another building once again uniting the youth of the frontline city I am happy to search for new heights with them even without lunch breaks," continues the museum's voice in Piotr Armianovski's film after attending the "Avdiivka FM" festival Avdiivka welcomed guests with the smell of the coking plant: since there was no other way into the city the locals (before the full-scale invasion the city had 30,000 residents) did not notice this aroma of metal and earth The city's history begins in the mid-18th century peasants from Poltava and Siveria founded the first farmstead in this area The plant started operating in 1963 and became one of the largest coking plants in Europe It produced over 30 types of products for Ukrainian industry and exported to Poland more than 3,000 people worked at the enterprise Avdiivka has always been associated with blooming lindens in spring and the warm smell of fresh buns from the café in the center where children's laughter and the measured steps of adults always echoed Sometimes I would stop by the window just to watch this life," recalls Tetiana Pereverzieva the head of the Avdiivka Folk History Museum the head of the Avdiivka Folk History Museumprovided to hromadskeShe loves this city unconditionally She was born and lived her whole life here which was under the control of militants since April Together with the Plast scout movement members Ukrainian troops liberated Avdiivka at the end of July and we had to go to Pokrovsk for groceries It was a completely different reality," recalls Pereverzieva They studied during breaks between shelling: between 08:00 AM and 12:00 PM the aggressor usually did not disturb the city Polina Pushkina was an 8th-grade student at the time She no longer knows what she was like before the war She came under the first shelling on July 27 The girl took a photo with the hole in the wall as the backdrop Polina Pushkina by her home with a hole in the wallprovided to hromadskeAfter this the Pushkins lived in a factory dormitory in Moscow Oblast We were promised that it would be rebuilt and we would return to study there It was like a symbol of empty promises that something would change," recalls Polina Polina herself went to study in another school in the city a few months before the full-scale invasion the girl started a diary in which she noted the names of the long-suffering streets of Avdiivka—those that were most often shelled We were waiting for spring—we got disappointment there was a strike on my yard and neighboring streets." My friend and I had rubber pigs in our backpacks that squeaked when pressed We were riding bikes with a friend in the old part of the city We accidentally ended up on Lermontova Street the city became "quieter." After 2017 artists began to come en masse and create their projects together with locals which was almost non-existent in the industrial city before "Perhaps because there was always a need for housing due to the development of the station and the plant People could not finance the construction themselves and this tradition of toloka existed for many years," says Pereverzieva The construction of the railway station is connected with her favorite city legend two men were in the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and learned that a treasure was buried in Avdiivka They dug for a long time and even found something but envious people wrote a denunciation to the law enforcement agencies A park and a road were arranged on the site where something valuable is presumably buried so someday we will look for these treasures," adds the museum director it was Tetiana who helped revive the recipe for Avdiivka porridge which was lost at some point in Soviet times during the preparation for the "Avdiivka FM" festival there was a need to present some highlight of the city And then Tetiana remembered that her grandfather and grandmother lived in Hahayivka—this is what the place was called which belonged to the settlers called hahayi each person was allocated as much land as they could run It was the hahayi who cooked this sweet porridge—made from rice Then this technology was included in the list of regional intangible cultural heritage "Now we travel to communities in Ukraine where Avdiivka residents live once a month to whom we tell the history of Avdiivka and present our porridge," says the activist This is part of the efforts to ensure that Avdiivka residents do not lose touch with each other Polina Pushkinaprovided to hromadskePolina Pushkina was last in Avdiivka at the beginning of 2022 The city was decorated for the Christmas holidays Then there were hundreds of news reports with photographs in which she recognized her native districts less and less the coking plant extinguished the fire in the furnaces and completely stopped; later Ukrainian troops repelled attacks and held the city The then Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi reported that in just one month of battles for Avdiivka Russia lost about 10,000 soldiers and over 100 tanks the Armed Forces of Ukraine left the city on February 17 "Everyone lives with the dream that we will return to Avdiivka I will visit the city at the first opportunity at least to visit the graves of my relatives," says Tetiana Pereverzieva '+n.escapeExpression("function"==typeof(o=null!=(o=r(e,"eyebrowText")||(null!=l?r(l,"eyebrowText"):l))?o:n.hooks.helperMissing)?o.call(null!=l?l:n.nullContext||{},{name:"eyebrowText",hash:{},data:t,loc:{start:{line:28,column:63},end:{line:28,column:78}}}):o)+" \n '+(null!=(o=c(e,"if").call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2PreText"):l,{name:"if",hash:{},fn:n.program(32,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:63,column:20},end:{line:63,column:61}}}))?o:"")+"\n"+(null!=(o=(c(e,"ifAll")||l&&c(l,"ifAll")||n.hooks.helperMissing).call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Text"):l,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Link"):l,{name:"ifAll",hash:{},fn:n.program(34,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:64,column:20},end:{line:70,column:30}}}))?o:"")+" On Saturday, Ukraine’s top general announced a withdrawal from the eastern city of Avdiivka “in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen." Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its forces took control of the city's Soviet-era coke fuel plant The recent transfer of control in this 12-square-mile area may be the biggest change in the 620-mile front line since Russian troops seized the nearby town of Bakhmut nine months ago in May 2023 But while Russia has celebrated the event as a major victory senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center "We should not exaggerate the importance of this just as we should not have exaggerated the importance of the fall of Bakhmut in May of last year which is why (Russian President Vladimir) Putin was willing to pay the price to take it And the Ukrainians saw both places as opportunities to inflict massive losses on the Russians Despite limited strategic value, the battle did force Ukraine to commit soldiers and materiel, according to the Institute for the Study of War Unable to view our graphics? Click here to see them.  about ratios of casualties being at least five to one against the Russians." of the Center for Strategic and International Studies sees Russia's ability to take control of the sky as a key factor in Ukraine's loss In any war where we have advancing conventional forces we would always use air to conduct close air support It's been hard for the Russians to use air because of Ukrainian air defense capabilities They were effectively able to get control of skies in Avdiivka and it was devastating or some combination of those used in Avdiivka Now how much they can do that in other areas Jones thinks Russia is shifting to offense but does not expect battle lines to shift rapidly I think the Russians have the military initiative which means they're on offense and we're seeing it on multiple lines but it's not clear how much progress they're going to be able to make Avdiivka has been a front-line city since 2014 when Russia-backed fighters invaded and briefly captured it Ukrainian forces reclaimed control and held the city for almost a decade Avdiivka is located about 15 miles outside Donetsk a regional capital which Russia has occupied since 2014 Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka comes as a roughly $60 billion aid package proposed by President Joe Biden remains blocked by Republicans in Congress. Apart from Avdiivka, Russia is pushing harder in the northeastern Kharkiv region and southern Zaporizhzhia, according to the Institute for the Study of War Herbst says that Congress' hesitation to fund Ukraine's war effort not only prevented a more successful outcome in Avdiivka but in last year's counteroffensive that if the aid package which was first proposed in September had been approved In addition to concerns about replacing equipment "A collapse of support from the United States is something that Ukrainian soldiers on the ground are looking at on their social media devices It's a huge psychological blow that the Russians are trying to take advantage of through psychological warfare information leaflets and other kinds of propaganda that's being broadcast on radio into Ukrainian lines." Delayed military aid may complicate Ukraine's defense even more, according to the Institute for the Study of War an Air Force veteran who served on the State Department's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy under two secretaries of state warns that Ukraine’s military capability has been reduced to "tactical pinpricks" with little strategic relevance "It is an unqualified geopolitical catastrophe for the West Ukraine has been destroyed as a viable nation," Myers told USA TODAY with hundreds of thousands of its precious youth dead and crippled its industrial and agricultural foundations obliterated." But Herbst says that swift delivery of aid to Ukraine could reverse recent Russian gains in Avdiivka But because the Russians have spent five or six months trying to get it they're celebrating it as if they had taken Berlin," Herbst said "I'm not gonna tell you it's a Pyrrhic victory the aid in that package and the weapons that they need beyond the aid in that package." Read more: Battered but unbowed, Ukraine fights on 2 years after Russia invasion. Will war ever end? Russia on Sunday said it had complete control of the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka after Kyiv withdrew its forces from the area in what appeared to be Moscow's biggest success in nine months Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian commanders had decided to retreat from the besieged city in the face of relentless "meat wave" attacks by Russian troops Speaking at at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday Zelenskyy referred to an "artificial deficit" in ammunition and renewed his calls for faster deliveries of artillery shells and long-range missiles U.S. President Joe Biden said "Ukrainian soldiers had to ration ammunition due to dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction resulting in Russia’s first notable gains in months." Biden called on lawmakers to approve $60 billion in aid to Ukraine that has been held up in the U.S The fall of Avdiivka is Russia's biggest gain since capturing the city of Bakhmut in May 2023 and comes almost two years to the day since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine Ukraine's newly appointed military chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a statement that he decided to withdraw forces from the embattled city to "avoid encirclement [by Russian troops] and preserve the lives and health of servicemen." Outnumbered Ukrainian defenders had battled a Russian assault around Avdiivka for four months in one of the most intense battles of the war Zelenskyy said Russian forces had been suffering seven casualties for every Ukrainian death in Avdiivka but even that death rate wasn't stopping the attacks complete devaluation of human life," Zelenskyy said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the lack of a decision in the U.S. Congress "has a direct impact on the front lines in Ukraine." Putin hailed the taking of Avdiivka as an important victory and congratulated Russian troops The Serbian leader had planned to meet several senior Republican Party officials and also hoped to see U.S officials met in Oman for negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program “Most of the major points are agreed to,” Trump said hours after special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow Norris was reportedly detained on charges that include suspicion of rape and child sex offenses ShareSaveComment@font-face{font-family: "Schnyder"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders-bold-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders/schnyders-bold-webfont.woff") format("woff"); font-weight: 700; font-style: normal;} @font-face{font-family: "Merriweather"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/merriweather/merriweather-bold-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/merriweather/merriweather-bold-webfont.woff") format("woff"); font-weight: 700; font-style: normal;} @font-face{font-family: "Euclid"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/euclidcircularb/euclidcircularb-bold-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/euclidcircularb/euclidcircularb-bold-webfont.woff") format("woff"); font-weight: 700; font-style: normal;} @font-face{font-family: "Schnyder"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders-light-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/schnyders/schnyders-light-webfont.woff") format("woff"); font-weight: 400; font-style: normal;} @font-face{font-family: "Merriweather"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/merriweather/merriweather-regular-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/merriweather/merriweather-regular-webfont.woff") format("woff"); font-weight: 400; font-style: normal;} @font-face{font-family: "Euclid"; src: url("https://i.forbesimg.com/assets/fonts/euclidcircularb/euclidcircularb-regular-webfont.woff2") format("woff2") #article-stream-0 .headline-embed .color-accent{color: #000000;} #article-stream-0 .headline-embed.bg-accent #article-stream-0 .headline-embed .bg-accent{background-color: #000000;} #article-stream-0 .headline-embed.color-base #article-stream-0 .headline-embed .color-base{color: #FFFFFF;} #article-stream-0 .headline-embed.bg-base #article-stream-0 .headline-embed .bg-base{background-color: #FFFFFF;} #article-stream-0 .headline-embed.font-base #article-stream-0 .headline-embed .font-base{font-family: Schnyder,"Noto Sans","Droid Sans","Helvetica Neue",Corbel,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;} #article-stream-0 .headline-embed.font-size #article-stream-0 .headline-embed .font-size{font-size: 54px;} #article-stream-0 .quote-embed.color-accent #article-stream-0 .quote-embed .color-accent{color: #FFFFFF;} #article-stream-0 .quote-embed.bg-accent #article-stream-0 .quote-embed .bg-accent{background-color: #FFFFFF;} #article-stream-0 .quote-embed.color-base #article-stream-0 .quote-embed .color-base{color: #000000;} #article-stream-0 .quote-embed.bg-base #article-stream-0 .quote-embed .bg-base{background-color: #000000;} #article-stream-0 .quote-embed.font-accent #article-stream-0 .quote-embed .font-accent{font-family: Schnyder,"Noto Sans","Droid Sans","Helvetica Neue",Corbel,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;} #article-stream-0 .quote-embed.font-size p #article-stream-0 .quote-embed .font-size p{font-size: 36px;} #article-stream-0 .subhead-embed.color-accent #article-stream-0 .subhead-embed .color-accent{color: #333333;} #article-stream-0 .subhead-embed.bg-accent #article-stream-0 .subhead-embed .bg-accent{background-color: #333333;} #article-stream-0 .subhead-embed.font-accent #article-stream-0 .subhead-embed .font-accent{font-family: Euclid,"Noto Sans","Droid Sans","Helvetica Neue",Corbel,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;} #article-stream-0 .subhead-embed.font-size #article-stream-0 .subhead-embed .font-size{font-size: 26px;} #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed.color-body #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed .color-body{color: #333333;} #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed.color-body-border{border-top-color: rgba(51,51,51 #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed .color-body-border{border-top-color: rgba(51,51,51 0.8);} .bg-body{background-color: #333333;} #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed.font-accent #article-stream-0 .subhead3-embed .font-accent{font-family: Euclid,"Noto Sans","Droid Sans","Helvetica Neue",Corbel,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;}A Russian tank burns near Novomykhailivka While Ukraine—and indeed the whole world—was distracted by the Russian campaign to capture the industrial town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine starting in October the Russian military launched a smaller assault on another eastern town: Novomykhailivka Around the same time the Russians captured what was left of Avdiivka in mid-April The former battle was costlier for the Russians the six-month battle for Novomykhailivka was just as bloody but it’s possible Russia lost more than 40,000 troops—a third killed two-thirds wounded—plus more than 1,000 vehicles capturing Avdiivka Ukrainian losses were much lighter in both battles When three Russian field armies with dozens of brigades and regiments attacked Avdiivka in early October “all our attention was there,” Kriegsforcher recalled “But there was one more big battle.” Seven Russian regiments and brigades including the ill-fated 155th Naval Infantry Brigade assaulted the Ukrainian garrison in Novomykhailivka artillery and drones knocked out dozens of tanks One T-80 ran over nine mines before it ground to a halt the Russians ran low on purpose-made armored vehicles and deployed more than a few do-it-yourself vehicles as replacements At least one up-armored “turtle tank”—a T-62 with no turret and a shell of add-on anti-drone armor—was immobilized by a Ukrainian mine The heavy losses the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russians stalled but didn’t prevent Novomykhailivka’s fall in mid-April the Ukrainians defending Novomykhailivka were desperately short of artillery shells and anti-tank missiles mostly owing to a long blockade of further U.S aid to Ukraine organized by Russia-friendly Republican lawmakers That blockade finally ended as Russian troops were marching into Novomykhailivka At the cost of 320 vehicles and potentially thousands of troops over six months the Russian military advanced four miles into and through Novomykhailivka Whether the town’s ruins are worth the price Russia paid is a question only Russians can answer Ukraine Control Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1xPxgT8LtUjuspSOGHJc2VzA5O5jWMTE&ll=47.85688747970511%2C37.45448665859447&z=12 Kriegsforscher: https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1812515142078284177 Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-020724 Naalsio: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NKsPyUhtaVer8RBbUPOeyD5LL_Clu77FyBxBBEOSPrg/edit?gid=476000750#gid=476000750 More Russian soldiers are likely to have died seizing the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka than in the 10-year Soviet-Afghan war, the think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Russian forces began their brutal campaign to seize the town in eastern Ukraine in October and finally succeeded earlier this month up to 25,000 Soviet soldiers are believed to have been killed during the entire Soviet-Afghan war with reports suggesting he died by suicide who were often ill-equipped or poorly trained Russia used similar tactics to capture the city of Bakhmut, Moscow's other major victory in the war It was a tactical victory — I'd argue operational failure — contributing to the continued Russian strategic failure," Barros said they've not even yet achieved tactical victory and it's unclear that they necessarily will I would characterize it as an operational failure." Assessing the progress of the war as it begins its third year the ISW said: "The situation today is grave It noted that while Russians have regained the initiative their gains have been "very limited and extremely costly." "Ukraine has not lost and there is no reason for Ukraine to lose Russians are adapting for a long war effort in Ukraine but they are not the Red Army hordes wrapped in the triumphant banners of World War II victories that Putin and his propagandists pretend them to be," the think tank said Russian forces launch attacks further west of key city as Kremlin congratulates its soldiers on biggest gain since May last year Russia has said it has taken full control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka its biggest gain since capturing Bakhmut last May Russian troops launched multiple attacks further west from Avdiivka in a bid for further battlefield gains a Ukrainian army spokesperson said on Sunday “The enemy is trying to actively develop its offensive,” said Dmytro Lykhoviy a spokesperson for the Ukrainian army commander leading Kyiv’s troops in the area Ukraine’s general staff reported 14 failed Russian attacks on the village of Lastochkyne around 2km (one mile) to the west of Avdiivka’s northern edge “But our considerable forces are entrenched there,” Lykhoviy said Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from the city in the industrial Donbas region to avoid encirclement adding that he had acted to “preserve the lives and health of servicemen” stabilise the situation and move troops to more favourable defence lines Some Ukrainian troops were reportedly holed up in a vast Soviet-era coke plant the Russian defence ministry said its forces had taken full control of the plant The Guardian was unable to verify these reports Ukraine’s military said there had been casualties in the retreat but that the situation had stabilised The capture of Avdiivka gives Russia full control of the area surrounding Donetsk a large Ukrainian city that was seized by Russian proxy forces in 2014 and comes as the second anniversary of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nears The Russian president, Vladimir Putin congratulated Russian soldiers on “the important victory” the Kremlin said in a statement on its website on Sunday said measures were being taken to “completely clear the town of militants” and “to block Ukrainian units that have left the town and are entrenched at the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant” Russian state television showed blue and yellow Ukrainian flags being taken down in Avdiivka and Russia’s white After the failure of Ukraine to pierce Russian lines last year Moscow has been trying to grind down Ukrainian forces just as Kyiv weighs up a major new mobilisation and Volodymyr Zelenskiy has appointed a new commander to run the war At a security conference in Munich on Saturday, the Ukrainian president urged western allies to help his country defeat “the monster” 3:52Why no one is winning the war in Ukraine – video explainerSeparately Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian offensive on the southern front in the area of Zaporizhzhia It holds particular symbolism for Russia as it was briefly taken in 2014 by Moscow-backed separatists who seized a swathe of eastern Ukraine but was recaptured by Ukrainian troops who built extensive fortifications On Wednesday 21 February at 7pm GMT Guardian Live will be holding an online event about the Russia-Ukraine war, with panellists including Luke Harding, Charlotte Higgins and novelist Andrey Kurkov. Book tickets here. Today’s Paper#masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }Russia-Ukraine War By Josh Holder, Constant Méheut, Eric Schmitt and Thomas Gibbons-Neff Rudimentary Ukrainian trench lines outside Avdiivka Russian forces continue to make small but rapid gains outside of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka attributable in part to dwindling Ukrainian ammunition and declining Western aid But there’s another reason the Kremlin’s troops are advancing in the area: poor Ukrainian defenses rudimentary trench lines populate the area west of Avdiivka that Ukraine is trying to defend according to a Times review of imagery by Planet Labs These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that could help slow Russian tanks and help defend major roads and important terrain Avdiivka became the site of a fierce standoff over the last nine months, emerging as one of the bloodiest battles of the war. When Russia captured the city on Feb the Ukrainian Army claimed it had secured defensive lines outside the city But Russian troops have captured three villages to the west of Avdiivka in the span of a week and they are contesting at least one other Sources: Satellite image from Planet Labs; Russian-controlled territory (as of Feb 2024) from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project Satellite imagery at the scale shown here is widely available officials said privately that it was concerning that Ukraine did not shore up its defensive lines early or well enough and that it may now face the consequences as Russian units advance slowly but steadily beyond Avdiivka British military intelligence said on Thursday that Russian forces had advanced to about four miles from the center of Avdiivka in the past two weeks a small but unusually rapid advance compared with previous offensive operations Ukrainian commanders have had ample time to prepare defenses outside Avdiivka and Ukraine has had a tenuous hold on it since Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago But the Ukrainian defenses outside Avdiivka show rudimentary earthen fortifications often with a connecting trench for infantry troops to reach firing positions closest to the enemy The lack of robust Ukrainian entrenchments in the area is especially glaring when compared with the formidable Russian defenses that thwarted Kyiv’s advances last summer during the Ukrainian counteroffensive Russian fortifications outside the southern village of Verbove which Ukraine tried and failed to retake this fall 2024) from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project; Russian fortifications based on data from Brady Africk Unlike the poorly fortified villages that Russian forces are trying to capture outside Avdiivka Verbove has a concentric ring of fortifications It starts with a trench wide enough to ensnare advancing tanks and armored vehicles followed by a mesh of cement obstacles known as dragon’s teeth — also used to stop vehicles — and Satellite imagery from February shows the multilayered Russian defenses to the west of Verbove with thousands of shell craters visible in the surrounding fields There are many possible reasons for Ukraine’s apparent lack of defenses Ukrainian officials may have been too focused on offensive operations last year to dedicate the necessary resources to building the kind of multiple trenches and tank traps that Russian engineers built since late 2022 in the country’s south Russia is building a vast network of trenches traps and obstacles to slow Ukraine’s momentum “Who cared and who considered it as an option — because it’s a very costly option — the construction of defensive lines noting that Ukraine had few resources to spare at the time There may have also been a psychological element at play If Ukrainian troops heavily mined certain areas to thwart Russian advances it would be a tacit acknowledgement that they were unlikely to carry out offensive operations in the same area at a future date They’d effectively be writing off that territory to the Russian military While Moscow began building defensive lines in the south more than half a year before Kyiv’s counteroffensive, Ukraine appeared to have begun plans for new fortifications only three months ago, when government officials announced the creation of a working group to coordinate efforts between civilian and military authorities Responsibility for building the first line of defense would fall to the military units stationed in the area, the officials said, while the next defensive lines would be built by civilian authorities, with the help of private contractors. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister, said that some 30 billion Ukrainian hryvnias had been allocated for fortifications this year Areas in the eastern Donetsk region, where Avdiivka is, “will receive maximum attention,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a visit near the front line in late November noting the “need to boost and accelerate the construction of structures.” But Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Black Bird Group which analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield said that “nothing significant has happened” since Mr but they do not yet constitute a particularly formidable defensive line” and are not comparable in scale to Russia’s fortifications in the south The Ukrainian authorities have said they lack people able to carry out the construction work. In mid-January, local officials in the western Ivano-Frankivsk region said they were looking for 300 workers willing to help build fortifications in the Donetsk region And even the units we have lack equipment,” Mr materials and experienced personnel when it built its defensive lines The absence of strong defensive lines outside of Avdiivka has been denounced in recent days by several Ukrainian journalists in a rare show of public criticism of the military Delays in the construction of fortifications mean that Ukrainian troops may now be left to reinforce their defensive lines while under fire from the Russian Army making the task exponentially more difficult Hrabskyi said Russia was currently preventing Ukrainian troops from shoring up their defenses by relentlessly bombarding them including with powerful glide bombs carrying hundreds of kilograms of explosives that can smash through even well-prepared fortifications “The quality of these defensive lines cannot be good enough to resist massive bulldozer tactics by the Russian forces,” Mr Oleksandra Mykolyshyn contributed reporting An earlier version of this article misstated the quantity of explosives carried by Russian glide bombs They carry hundreds of kilograms of explosives Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s military chief said early Saturday that he’s withdrawing troops from the city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine where outnumbered defenders battled a Russian assault for four months The timing is critical as Russia is looking for a morale boost ahead of the second anniversary on Feb 24 of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the March presidential election in Russia In a short statement posted on Facebook early Saturday Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said he had made the decision to avoid encirclement and “preserve the lives and health of servicemen.” The commander-in-chief added that troops were moving to “more favorable lines.” READ MORE: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy in Paris signed security agreement with France after similar deal with Germany The withdrawal came a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday made another trip to western Europe hoping to press his country’s Western allies to keep providing military support White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday that Russian forces were beginning to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses in the eastern city He said Avdiivka is at risk of falling to Russia a development he blamed “in very large part” on the fact that Ukrainian forces are running out of artillery ammunition The United States is Ukraine’s biggest single supporter but some $60 billion for Kyiv is being held up by political disagreements among American lawmakers Street fighting was underway in the bombed-out city where Ukrainian troops are outnumbered 7-to-1 press officer of the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukraine Armed Forces but that he expected the situation would “soon become critical.” WATCH: Biden says Navalny’s reported death brings new urgency to the need for more aid to Ukraine Russian media reported the Kremlin’s forces are making extensive use of plane-launched glide bombs Russian troops conducted 33 assaults in Avdiivka over the previous 24 hours The Russians have been trying to capture the city since last October but made only incremental progress before a recent push The Ukrainian defenders prepared for “any possible scenarios,” according to Brig Ukrainian officials have not ruled out a withdrawal from the city Zelenskyy said in Berlin that his troops are “heroically (defending) strategic points and logistic routes that might allow the enemy to advance.” WATCH: Why Alexei Navalny’s legacy after news of his death is ‘one of tragedy’ for Russians said on social media Friday that some units have pulled back in an effort to regroup save lives and resupply defensive positions — movements that won’t give the Russians any advantage Heavily fortified with a web of tunnels and concrete fortifications Avdiivka lies in the northern suburbs of Donetsk a city in a region of the same name that Russian forces partially occupy Capturing Avdiivka could be a timely boost for Moscow and serve as a possible springboard for Russia to drive deeper into the region Aerial footage of Avdiivka obtained by The Associated Press last December showed an apocalyptic scene and hinted at Russia’s staggering losses with the bodies of about 150 soldiers — most wearing Russian uniforms — lying scattered along tree lines where they sought cover said that taking Avdiivka would be more of a symbolic win for the Kremlin and would not bring significant changes to the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line that has barely budged in recent months “The potential Russian capture of Avdiivka would not be operationally significant and would likely only offer the Kremlin immediate informational and political victories,” the institute said in an assessment late Thursday © 1996 - 2025 NewsHour Productions LLC PBS is a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organization Subscribe to Here's the Deal with Lisa Desjardins Russian troops are making gains towards Avdiivka posing a "critical" situation for Kyiv's forces amid the prospect the Donetsk town could be the first settlement captured by Moscow in eight months Russia launched an offensive for the settlement considered to be a gateway to nearby Russian-occupied Donetsk city and pivotal in the Kremlin's objective to gain control of the entire southeastern Donbas region Russia has suffered huge losses of equipment and troops in what has been described by Kyiv as "meat assaults," but Ukrainian Telegram channels have been giving pessimistic assessments on the chances that Kyiv's forces could manage to hold onto the town The Telegram channel Ukraine Fights posted on Sunday that "the situation in the city has become critical," adding that Russian attack aircraft had entered the city from the northeast and Russian troops had bypassed Ukrainian battle formations and gained a foothold in the buildings "This means that they are hundreds of meters away from the main logistical artery of the Ukrainian defenders," the post said Telegram channel Butusov Plus said there were street battles in the northern outskirts of Avdiivka where Russian units had entrenched themselves less than a mile from the entrance to the town Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade and attached units are fighting larger Russian troop numbers "Avdiivka urgently needs fresh reserves and a rotation of units from the heroic 110th Brigade," the post said Newsweek reached out to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov referred to the posts on X, formerly Twitter writing on Sunday that Avdiivka "increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May." He added that the acute ammunition shortage has been caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS said that the Russian capture of Avdiivka could strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine It would also enable Russian forces to consolidate positions around Bakhmut facilitate their control of the highway between Donetsk and Kramatorsk and overall enhance Moscow's logistical capabilities in Donetsk "The loss of Avdiivka would limit Ukraine's ability to launch counteroffensive operations against Russia in Donbas would pose an exceptionally challenging task," Hartwell told Newsweek "Russia has invested heavily in the capture of Avdiivka deploying scores of soldiers and military equipment to the city," he said "The seizure of Avdiivka holds significant political importance for Putin driven by the urgent need to showcase victories for Russia ahead of the presidential election and a potential new wave of mass mobilization of soldiers." The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Sunday that Russian forces had advanced east of Avdiivka with geolocated footage from the previous day showing advances along the H-20 highway east of the town senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told the War on the Rocks podcast on January 30 that the situation around Avdiivka was "stable" but "trending for the worse in the sense that Russians are making incremental gains." "There is a good chance that Avdiivka will eventually be lost," Kofman said a professor of geopolitics and Islamic business at ESSEC Business School in Singapore as well as problems it had in mobilization meant "there is a great risk that Avdiivka will fall soon "Putin does not seem to have these problems, so the likelihood is high," he told Newsweek, adding that President Volodymyr Zelensky had wanted to defend Avdiivka "whatever the cost" unlike his commander-in-chief, Valerii Zaluzhny this will change the rivalry between the President and the army chief—to the latter's benefit," he said ET: This article was updated with comment from Čedomir Nestorović Russian takeover of eastern city would give it full control of area surrounding Donetsk Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the eastern city of Avdiivka to avoid encirclement, army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has said, marking the biggest change on the frontlines since Russian forces captured Bakhmut in May last year the recently appointed Syrskyi said he had acted to “preserve the lives and health of servicemen” [and] inflicted significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment,” he said “The life of military personnel is [of] the highest value.” the Ukrainian commander responsible for forces in the south-east of the country had said Kyiv’s forces had withdrawn from some positions in the town “New positions have been prepared and powerful fortifications continue to be prepared taking into account all possible scenarios,” Oleksandr Tarnavskiy said in a statement on social media on Friday In a Saturday statement issued just after Syrskyi’s he added “In a situation where the enemy is advancing on the corpses of their own soldiers with a ten-to-one shell advantage this [withdrawal] is the only correct solution.” As the two-year mark of Russia’s full-scale invasion approaches, Ukrainian troops are under pressure along the frontline, with depleted and exhausted ranks and a shortage of artillery shells that has been exacerbated by the stalling of a large US funding package had warned on Thursday that Avdiivka risked falling to Russian forces because of ammunition shortages following months of Republican congressional opposition to the aid package Avdiivka has been pounded by the Russians for months but it is only in recent weeks that they have been able to make significant breakthroughs with small groups of advance troops making it into the city itself Syrskyi, who was appointed last week in a major military shake-up had sent in reinforcements to aid the defence of Avdiivka but Tarnavskiy’s announcements had suggested Kyiv might be preparing for a retreat from the city which was surrounded on three sides by Russian forces The loss of the city nearly two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion may give President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a stronger case to make to the west for more urgent military aid as he addresses the Munich Security Conference on Saturday morning There was no immediate comment about the withdrawal from the Russian defence ministry Zelenskiy or the Ukrainian defence minister much of which has been decimated by fighting would give Russia full control of the area surrounding Donetsk It would also be a symbolic gain for Vladimir Putin as he prepares to stand in a rubber-stamp election next month that will grant him another six years in office An industrial city once known for its sprawling coke plant Avdiivka became a Ukrainian military stronghold after the loss of Donetsk in 2014 but has been decimated by the recent fighting down from a prewar population of about 32,000 Most of them are elderly people who have refused to leave their homes even as fighting has intensified in recent months and there is no possibility to evacuate them Fierce battles have been going on around Avdiivka since October which had been deployed around Avdiivka to reinforce Kyiv’s troops said in a statement on Thursday that the situation in the city was “hell” describing it as “threatening and unstable” Ukrainian soldiers west of Avdiivka in Donetsk region Photograph: Kasia Strek/The GuardianJohn Kirby the White House national security spokesperson said in a briefing on Thursday that Avdiivka was at risk of falling under Russian control this is happening because the Ukrainian forces on the ground are running out of artillery ammunition,” he said At a forest base near a section of the frontline in Donetsk region soldiers from a self-propelled artillery unit that forms part of Ukraine’s First Tank Brigade said during a visit on Thursday that their ability to strike the Russians had been cut dramatically since November to stop them from relaxing and disrupt their movements and only fire for defence,” said their commander in accordance with Ukrainian army regulations we only aim when we see a concentration of hardware,” he added With the frontlines largely static in recent months the capture of Avdiivka would mark Russia’s first major gain since taking Bakhmut last May “Avdiivka is important for them to control the space around Donetsk you have control of dominant heights there and they can build logistics corridors to supply a large area of the front,” said Mykhailo Podolyak in an interview in Kyiv earlier this month this is about the operative importance of a particular territory,” he added Some in Ukraine have suggested that the situation in Avdiivka resembles the fierce fighting during last year’s defence of Bakhmut during which Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses during an ultimately unsuccessful defence of the city but I worry that Ukraine’s leadership will choose to freight it with political significance as part of an observed tendency to not cede ground anywhere no matter the cost or military reality,” said Michael Kofman a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment thinktank Zelenskiy fired his top army commander Some Ukrainian soldiers blame Syrskyi for the losses at Bakhmut and expressed concern that more lives may be lost in Avdiivka before the Russian takeover that most believe is inevitable “Most likely we will lose it and the only other option is we spend tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives to hold it a bit longer and then who will replace those people,” said one Ukrainian army officer David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO David joined Newsweek in 2018 and has since reported from key locations and summits across Europe and the South Caucasus This includes extensive reporting from the Baltic David graduated from the University of Cambridge having specialized in the history of empires and revolutions You can contact David at d.brennan@newsweek.com and follow him on Twitter @DavidBrennan100 Russian forces are continuing to edge forwards on the battlefield outside of Avdiivka the eastern Ukrainian fortress city that fell to Moscow's units in February after almost two years of tough fighting The capture of Avdiivka—which has been partially blamed on the sudden constriction of Western military aid especially American—was a significant breakthrough for the Kremlin secured just before the March presidential election and ejecting the Ukrainian garrison that since 2014 has fought against Russian efforts to dismember its neighbor Kyiv's forces have since been trying to stabilize the frontline in the eastern Donetsk Oblast fighting Russian troops in the rural regions to Avdiivka's west the Ukrainian Deep State Telegram channel has reported significant progress for Russian attackers in the settlement of Ocheretyne Russian troops appear to have made what the channel described as a "breakthrough" in the Ukrainian front there Newsweek cannot independently verify the reports and has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries by email to request comment as Russian forces "continue to gain a foothold" in both in Ocheretyne and Novobakhmutivka to its immediate south Deep State also reported fierce fighting in nearby Novokalynovo and updated its real-time battlefield map to reflect the most recent advances Though Ukrainian forces have met the offensives "the forces are not equal," Deep State wrote The Russians "outnumber the Defense Forces in the infantry This is not to mention the anti-aircraft guns The Russian success in Ocheretyne appears part of a wider effort to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote this week "Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a wide penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka but their ability to do so will likely be blunted by the arrival of U.S and other Western aid to the frontline," it said A three-pronged effort is made up of drives towards Berdychi "Russian offensive operations in these three areas north and northwest of Avdiivka have succeeded in creating three small salients along a frontline that is about seven kilometers [4.3 miles] long but each of these three salients is currently too narrow in isolation to serve as meaningful launch points for further ground offensives that would accomplish a broad encirclement of the general area west of Avdiivka." and general battlefield geometry of this area suggest that Russian forces currently hope to combine the pushes from all three salients to create a wider breach along the Berdychi-Novokalynove line." Deep State said the Ocheretyne situation "revealed a number of problems" in the organization and professionalism of the defending Ukrainian forces in the area