Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker At least two people were killed and four wounded in a Russian airstrike overnight on Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region "Around 3:15 in the morning the enemy launched a missile attack on the town of Barvinkove in Izyum district," the prosecutor said in a statement The prosecuted said two men aged 48 and 69 had been killed around 50 buildings were damaged in the bombardment apparently by three Russian Iskander missiles Another strike hit an agricultural business in the village of Oleksiivka Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been urging his nation's allies to step up air defense support to be able to intercept Russian missiles and drones raining down daily on the country over nearly 30 months of conflict The death toll in a Russian strike Friday on a playground in the southern city of Mykolaiv rose to four the local mayor Oleksander Senkevitch posted on Telegram Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent." These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help please support us monthly starting from just $2 and every contribution makes a significant impact independent journalism in the face of repression Ukraine’s sinking of the Moskva was a significant event that has likely triggered intensified Russian air and missile attacks in retaliation but the decisive operations of this phase of the war will still be conducted on the ground in eastern Ukraine The commitment of the Black Sea Fleet’s naval infantry to the fight around Mariupol some weeks ago meant that Russian naval operations would play a supporting role in the conflict Increased Russian air and missile attacks are also unlikely to have a decisive impact on the outcome of the war since there is no reason to assess that Russia has been holding enough air and missile capability in reserve to tip the balance if it is now committed will thus remain focused on the ground operations Russian forces continued to amass troops around Izyum in preparation for continuing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine The Russians continued small-scale attacks in the vicinities of Izyum and the area around Rubizhne and Severodonetsk—sometimes with artillery These attacks have not made significant gains so far It is unclear if they are part of a rolling offensive operation into which Russian reinforcements will be fed as they become available or if they are setting conditions for a larger-scale better-coordinated offensive that will start soon The specific terrain on which battles in eastern Ukraine will be fought may constrain the Russians’ ability to take advantage of the number of forces they are amassing for the attack Eastern Ukraine is famous for being superb terrain for large-scale mechanized maneuver because of the World War II campaigns of the Wehrmacht and the Red Army that Russian forces will find it much more conducive to rapid decisive mechanized operations than other parts of the theater The Russians have struggled repeatedly to seize built-up areas rapidly or even to reduce them once encircled They will have to seize several significant population centers to achieve their apparent objectives in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts The difficulties they have encountered taking Rubizhne do not bode well for their rapid success against other built-up areas The ground itself is also challenging as it is crisscrossed by many small water features and The reinforcements the Russians are bringing into this part of the theater will help but large numbers of much fresher Russian troops struggled to take relatively small population centers north and northeast of Kyiv even before getting into the Kyiv suburbs proper The Russians must take the major population centers in Donetsk and Luhansk if they are to achieve the operation’s stated goals Russian forces will likely continue operating along three primary axes of advance in Donbas: from Izyum south via Slovyansk toward Russian-controlled Donetsk Oblast near Debaltseve; from Rubizhne and Severodonetsk southwest toward the Izyum-Debaltseve highway; and from Popasna west toward that highway They may open an additional axis of advance from near Donetsk City to the north toward Kramatorsk as well according to the Ukrainian General Staff.[1] The Russian main effort currently appears to be from Izyum southeast along the highway to Slovyansk The drive west from Popasna is presumably meant to reach the Izyum-Debaltseve highway possibly setting conditions to encircle or drive off Ukrainian forces defending against a Russian advance from the Debaltseve area to the northwest The purpose of the direct assaults on Severodonetsk and Rubizhne is less clear The Russians may be trying to seize those cities as part of the objective to seize Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts rather than waiting until they have been encircled and trying to reduce them at that point They may alternatively be seeking to fix Ukrainian forces in that northeastern sector of the salient the Russians intend to encircle The general pattern of operations and apparent movements of Russian reinforcements suggest that the drive from Izyum to the southwest will be the main effort in this part of the theater but that the Russians will continue to attack on multiple axes that are not immediately mutually supporting Ukrainian officials report that Russia has concentrated as many as 22 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the vicinity of Izyum but the Russians will struggle to take advantage of that force concentration if they cannot open up parallel axes of advance—something they have notably struggled to do in other parts of the theater Russian forces are apparently attempting to drive southwest from Izyum toward Barvinkove which could allow them to open up an axis of advance in addition to the main Izyum-Slovyansk highway But Barvinkove is a large enough settlement to delay the Russian advance if Ukrainian forces hold it and the route from Izyum to Barvinkove is not really parallel to the Izyum-Slovyansk highway—Barvinkove is roughly 50 kilometers west of Slovyansk Taking Barvinkove does not cut the only Ukrainian ground line of communication (GLOC) to Slovyansk as another main GLOC to Slovyansk from the west runs through Kramatorsk about 45 kilometers southeast of Barvinkove The individual Russian offensives in the east are thus unlikely to proceed dramatically more successfully than similar operations around Kyiv unless the Russians change their operational patterns significantly The Russians could overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders by the sheer number of different axes of advance forcing the Ukrainians to spread themselves too thinly But the Ukrainians’ demonstrated will and ability to hold much larger Russian forces at bay in built-up areas for a considerable time suggests that many if not most or even all of these Russian drives will stall This discussion does not take account of the quality and physical and psychological state of the Russian forces which we have considered in detail in previous reports and which makes a sudden dramatic Russian offensive success even less likely We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time: Subordinate main effort—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders) Russian forces continued their slow advance through Mariupol on April 16 Elements of Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces arrived at the central Mariupol beach from the north.[2] Fighting continued in central Mariupol itself.[3] Russian forces entered the base of the Ukrainian National Guard’s 12th Operations Brigade and DNR forces seized a police station in central Mariupol relatively close to the beach.[4] Ukrainian forces continued to defend in pockets but especially in the Azovstal plant which Russian and proxy forces continued attacking heavily.[5] The Russians' use of Tu-22M Backfire bombers to attack to Azovstal plant may suggest that they intend to end the battle soon by devastating the remaining defenders with firepower.[6] Ukrainian advisor to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushenko claimed that DNR head Denis Pushilin opened an office of the United Russia party in Mariupol on April 15.[7] This action likely indicates that the DNR is preparing to begin governing Mariupol (or what remains of it) soon Andryushenko further claimed that Russian “filtration” measures are reaching a crescendo in Mariupol and that the Russians have announced a complete lockdown of the city on Monday to allow them to complete the “filtration” process.[8] The Battle of Mariupol and the fight in Donbas generally have cost the Russians and proxies dearly Social media confirmed that the funeral of the deputy commander of the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army Subordinate main effort—Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian troops continued shelling Severodonetsk and Russian troops made small tactical attacks around Popasna on April 15.[10] The shelling has destroyed much of the cities’ infrastructure.[11] Russian forces made no significant territorial gains in these areas in the past 24 hours The Ukrainian General Staff reported artillery strikes in and around Avdiivka on April 16 possibly in preparation for an offensive operation in that area.[12] Avdiivka is just north of Donetsk City on the N20 highway toward Kramatorsk which lies about 70 kilometers to the northwest A Russian advance along this axis could complement the drive from Izyum to the southeast via Slovyansk toward Debaltseve Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv and Izyum: (Russian objective: Advance southeast to support Russian operations in Luhansk Oblast and fix Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv in place) Russian forces continued their build-up in and around Izyum over the last 24 hours including deploying elements of units that had fought around Kyiv into the area The Ukrainian General Staff reported that elements of the 6th and 20th Combined Arms Armies as well as of the 1st Guards Tank Army that had been operating in the Kharkiv and eastern Ukraine area for some time were being reinforced by elements of the 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and the 106th Airborne Division all of which fought and suffered heavy losses around Kyiv.[13] The General Staff claimed that elements of the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District were also operating in eastern Ukraine The forces of the 68th Corps likely came from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle brigade based on Sakhalin Island.[14] Those troops likely have not previously participated in the fighting in Ukraine as the Ukrainian General Staff claimed that their scheduled rotation into Syria was canceled to facilitate their entry into the war.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff claims that Russian forces have amassed as many as 22 BTGs around Izyum for operations toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove.[16] Actual combat activity on the Izyum axis was limited with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting one significant attempt to drive on the village of Dovgenske roughly 20 kilometers south of Izyum on the Slovyansk highway that the Ukrainians claim to have repulsed.[17] Russian forces around Kharkiv City generally held their positions although the commander of Ukraine’s Joint Operational Headquarters claimed on April 16 that Ukrainian forces regained some territory around the city.[18] Supporting Effort #2—Southern axis: (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks) There has been no significant change around Kherson in the past 24 hours Supporting Effort #3—Sumy and Northeastern Ukraine: (Russian objective: Withdraw combat power in good order for redeployment to eastern Ukraine) There was no significant change in this area in the past 24 hours [1] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/296207789358973 [2] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1515316200150114317; https://twitter.com/wargonzoo/status/1515269158560309250 [3] https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1515019690871037960; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1515314924007956491 ; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1515169159730106369; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1515187540017483776; https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514848210845581313 [4] https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1515308610133311489; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1515316875680436231; https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1515290166818189322; https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1515019690871037960 [5] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1515193541194100737; https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1515094094279815180; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1515314587561828363; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1515190592283852800; https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1514948432875728897 [6] Russian Bombers Just Carpet-Bombed Mariupol (forbes.com); https://t dot me/andriyshTime/292 [8] https://t.me/andriyshTime/292; https://t.me/andriyshTime/294 [9] https://twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1515338108639842312; https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1515343018471006212 [10] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/295827436063675; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/295827436063675; [11] https://hromadske dot ua/posts/52-j-den-povnomasshtabnoyi-vijni-rosiyi-proti-ukrayini-tekstovij-onlajn; https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1515033019505164292; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1515189729695830016; [12] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/295827436063675 [13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/295827436063675; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/296207789358973 [14] 68th Army Corps - Coastal Missile-Artillery Forces (BRAV) (globalsecurity.org); [“The winners of tank biathlon in Sakhalin given rental house keys,”] Sakhalin.info https://sakhalin.info/news/137455; [“39th motorized rifle brigade conducted large-scale military exercises in Sakhalin,”] ACTB https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhfk2n2zGI0; [“2017 Day of the Motor Troops,”] Ok Group https://ok.ru/video/39848380978; [“39th separate motorized rifle brigade - Military Unit 35390,”] Russian Military Units https://voinskayachast.net/suhoputnie-voyska/motostrelkovie/vch35390; [“39th separate motorized rifle brigade - Military Unit 35390,”] Russian Military Units https://voinskayachast.net/suhoputnie-voyska/motostrelkovie/vch35390; [“39th Independent Motorized Rifle Red Banner Brigade (Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk),”] Wikimapia http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=46.888662&lon=142.757592&z=16&m=b&show=/20843951/ru/39-я-отдельная-мотострелковая-Краснознамённая-бригада&search=sakhalin [15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/296207789358973 [16] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/296207789358973; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/295827436063675 [17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/296207789358973 [18] https://inforesist.org/bojczy-vsu-osvobodili-o-okkupantov-dva-sela-na-harkovshhine/?fbclid=IwAR1-wqrisImqVhFOA4l-sw3k8UVTCoEdlyDIpE5MRhoe0_b71LstjlrVaZA Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, said this in an interview with the RBC-Ukraine news outlet, Ukrinform reports. He said that the military equipment is being supplied through the captured Kupiansk district to the Izium direction and also to the Luhansk and Donetsk directions. "Some hostilities and special military operations are going on there, but I cannot talk about them now. However, there is a constant struggle to disrupt the enemy's logistics," Syniehubov said. He added that in the Izium direction, the enemy is trying to hold their positions, expand the area of the captured territories and break through Ukrainian defensive positions. "Fierce hostilities are taking place there every day," he said. Photo: General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces  Online media entity; Media identifier - R40-01421. © 2015-2025 Ukrinform. All rights reserved. 20226:58 PM UTCIn pictures: Ukraine girds for Russian offensive in the eastUkrainian officials urged civilians to flee eastern areas ahead of the anticipated offensive while the battle for the southern port city of Mariupol was reaching a decisive phase [1/41]A service member of pro-Russian troops loads rocket-propelled grenades into an infantry combat vehicle during fighting near a plant of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works company in the southern port city of Mariupol [2/41]A Ukrainian serviceman stands in front of a destroyed building outside the village of Barvinkove [3/41]Women walk past a bridge that according to residents was destroyed by Russian army soldiers while they were pulling out of the town of Ivankiv [5/41]A dummy dressed as a Russian fighter hangs outside the village of Barvinkove [6/41]Service members of pro-Russian troops drive an armored vehicle in the southern port city of Mariupol [8/41]Service members of pro-Russian troops load rocket-propelled grenades into an infantry combat vehicle during fighting in the southern port city of Mariupol [9/41]A man looks out of his window that was broken during Russian shelling in Borodianka [10/41]Mourners attend the funeral ceremony of Ukrainian serviceman Roman Tiaka [11/41]Mourners gather around the coffin of Ukrainian serviceman Roman Tiaka [12/41]A man walks past the Kharkiv Regional Institute of the National Academy of Public Administration building which was destroyed during Russian shelling [14/41]A satellite image shows armored vehicles at the northern end of a military convoy moving south through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk 2022 Maxar Technologies/via REUTERSVELYKYI BURLUK THIS IMAGE MAY OFFEND OR DISTURB French forensics investigators who arrived in Ukraine for the investigation of war crimes amid Russia's invasion look at the remains of bodies of burned civilians exhumed from a grave in the town of Bucha [16/41]A woman fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine looks out a window of her temporary housing in Odesa [17/41]Residents carry their belongings near buildings destroyed in the southern port city of Mariupol [18/41]Graves of civilians killed are seen next to apartment buildings in the southern port city of Mariupol reacts as she recounts how Russian soldiers treated her in Borodyanka Zinaida said "They came to my house and said go to the basement  She put a sign on her house reading "there are people here" Soldiers started to shoot around her to scare her [20/41]An armored vehicle of pro-Russian troops is seen in the street in the southern port city of Mariupol More in this CollectionSee all picturesItem 21 of 41 A couple hugs while walking past a building that was heavily damaged by shelling as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY[21/41]A couple hugs while walking past a building that was heavily damaged by shelling REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis TPX IMAGES OF THE DAYShare this gallery , opens new tab Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. , opens new tabScreen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. © 2025 Reuters. All rights reserved Meet the Ukrainian drone team contesting Russian air superiority in the east Ukraine] The famous Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade has been at the forefront of the battle against the Russians in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions and is now using new and evolving aerial warfare and tactics to put the Russian forces on the defensive “Drones in modern warfare are the eyes and I really hope that we will have much more of these eyes in the sky” Alex “We are engaged in reconnaissance and work in the air against the enemy [the Russians] all the time [here].” well-built Kostyantyn from eastern Ukraine is even more explicit about the importance of drones in all aspects of this war to combat them [the Russians] in the skies This small but dedicated drone unit was fighting in southeastern Kharkiv but has now been transferred to the front lines in Donetsk “We were transferred here because the 93rd Brigade has a lot of experience and many specialists who can defend these areas Now we need to align to the front line [here] and push the Russians back further in Donetsk,” Kostyantyn defiantly tells us a city in the Izyum region of Kharkiv Oblast Barvinkove and other towns south of the regional capital Kharkiv were recently used as a staging post for a massive counteroffensive against the Russia forces in the area pushing south in Kharkiv Oblast and seizing some 8,000 square kilometers (3,089 square miles) of territory from the Russians The capture of this territory and in particular the large town of Izyum effectively cuts of the Russia forces from the whole of Kharkiv Oblast and threatens their position to the south in the Donestk region The loss of Izyum is of key military importance as it was a logisitical hub for the Russians from which they were supplying troops and equipment to the east in the Donbas region to attack places like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk which they were aiming to capture at the start of their so-called special operation in Ukraine In response to the recent Ukrainian successes of the offensive in southern Kharkiv Kyiv’s official in charge of the eastern Donetsk region partially controlled by pro-Moscow separatists since 2014 said Russian forces had attacked the entire front-line region said at least one civilian had been killed in the attacks and again urged all others to leave describing the order as a “matter of life and death.” This drone unit has been actively fighting in the area to the south of the strategically important city of Kramatorsk and has provide aerial support to the 93rd Brigade’s ground troops to enable them to defend against Russian attacks like these The brigade has also built an extensive network of forward positions and tunnels in Donetsk to defend from and also launch their drones from It takes thousands of missiles to drive people out of the trenches,” Kostyantyn says while showing a newly built trench system on the outskirts of their base “There are also places where we can hide our drones and operate them from.” Following the retreat of Russia from Izyum and Kharkiv the Ukrainian forces now have much smaller supply lines and the capacity to focus more of their direct attacks on the Donetsk region with an estimated 80% of the residential building in Izyum destroyed and many civilians being killed in the battle the liberation of Donestk could also become a lot bloodier and more costly “The Russian occupiers plundered and plundered all the pharmacies [and] only about 10,000 people now remain in Izyum – about one-fifth of the city’s pre-war population,” Maksym Strelnyk told the Kyiv Post shortly after surveying the damage following the Ukraine forces’ liberation of the city Following this defeat and the complete withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast of the remaining Russian forces Moscow launched a barrage of missile attacks at infrastructure targets in the area including the power station on Kharkiv’s western outskirts and left the city without electricity for days President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denounced the “deliberate and cynical missile strikes” against civilian targets as acts of terrorism It is feared that this targeting of infrastructure and killing of civilians could further intensify as the Ukrainian attempt to liberate more territory in Donetsk Something that is also of deep concern to residents in Kostyantynivka near the front lines a shell hit the pumping station and we have been without water for about a month; [thankfully,] there is electricity but there has been no gas since May,” Beleniuk Natalia explains from the city center not far from the 93rd Brigade’s forward operating base “The situation in the Kostyantynivka is very disturbing [now] And with the inability of the Russians or Ukrainians to maintain any meaningful air dominance or security over Donetsk and the breakdown of direct peace talks in Turkey in April civilians and infrastructure are likely to continue being hit by random strikes from either side until the war is over Ukrainian military says it downed 35 of 39 drones saying Russia ‘looking for new approach routes to the capital’ Russia launched its fifth drone attack on Kyiv in two weeks but air defence systems destroyed all of them before they reached the capital There were no casualties and no significant damage reported the head of the capital’s military administration said on Telegram Serhiy Popko said the “systematic attacks” with the drones showed Russia was “testing new tactics looking for new approach routes to the capital trying to expose the location of our air defence” Ukraine’s air defence systems destroyed 35 of the 39 drones and two cruise missiles that Russia had launched overnight The weapons targeted 10 of Ukraine’s regions A Russian missile damaged critical infrastructure in the Shostkynskyi district of Sumy the region’s military administration said on Telegram It did not provide detail on what infrastructure was hit in the north-eastern Ukrainian region Russian missiles and artillery fire in north-east and southern Ukraine killed at least three people on Saturday A missile attack was launched around 3.15am on the town of Barvinkove in Izium district the north-east Kharkiv region’s prosecutor’s office said The statement listed the dead as two men aged 48 and 69 and said about 50 buildings were damaged in the strike Separate artillery shelling later on Saturday killed a 44-year-old man in the city of Nikopol in Ukraine’s south Russia’s air defence systems destroyed eight drones that Ukraine launched overnight the Russian defence ministry said on Sunday Three of the drones were destroyed over the Belgorod region and three were intercepted in the Black Sea The death toll from a Russian strike on a playground in Mykolaiv on Friday rose to four Chechen soldiers known for their antics on TikTok are being put on the Ukraine war’s front line in a sign of the Russian military’s “desperation”, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) said. In a video posted to X it said pro-Russian Chechen forces had been fighting in Ukraine since 2014 but after initial heavy losses had became “largely relegated to conducting rear area security operations” since the withdrawal of Wagner forces from the war “these TikTok soldiers are being pressed back into frontline service” It added that about 42,000 Russian soldiers had been trained at a Chechnya military university since 2022 but with only up to 10 days’ training likely “The use of Chechen TikTok soldiers on the frontline and to train Russian solders illustrates the desperation and resources strain within the Russian military.” Donald Trump says he will “prevent world war three from happening” and that he will have the war between Russia and Ukraine “settled” if he is re-elected in November “You’re very close to world war,” the US Republican presidential nominee told a campaign rally in Michigan “I will restore a thing called peace through strength.” Trump’s comments came a day after he said he had a call with Volodymyr Zelenskiy and told the Ukrainian president he would end the war Trump has repeatedly claimed he would end the war quickly Zelenskiy said he had agreed to arrange a meeting with Trump Russian forces have adopted a sounder pattern of operational movement in eastern Ukraine at least along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous practice had supported Russian troops on this line are making better progress than any other Russian advances in this phase of the war They are pushing from Izyum southwest toward Barvinkove and southeast toward Slovyansk They are also pushing several columns west and south of Rubizhne likely intending to encircle it and complete its capture The Russian advances even in this area are proceeding methodically rather than rapidly and it is not clear how far they will be able to drive or whether they will be able to encircle Ukrainian forces in large numbers Russian forces on the Izyum axis likely benefit from the absence of prepared Ukrainian defensive positions against attacks from the Kharkiv direction toward Donbas Ukraine has prepared to defend the line of contact with Russian-occupied Donbas since 2014 and Russian troops continue to struggle to penetrate those prepared defenses—as shown by repeated Russian efforts to take Avdiivka Russian troops continued to attack Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims that there is no more fighting in the city Ukrainian forces likely still hold important positions beyond the plant itself and Russian forces continue to fight outside the plant Putin’s order not to chase Ukrainian defenders into the tunnels and catacombs of the facility evidently did not preclude continued efforts to secure at least the entire perimeter of the plant and likely also the important M14 highway that runs along it to the north and northwest Russia is staging false-flag attacks in Transnistria likely setting conditions for further actions on that front The two motorized rifle battalions Russia has illegally maintained in Transnistria since the end of the Cold War are not likely sufficient to mount a credible attack on Odesa by themselves nor are the Russians likely to be able to reinforce them enough to allow them to do so They could support more limited attacks to the northwest of Odesa possibly causing panic and creating psychological effects to benefit Russian operations in the south of Ukraine Russia may also seek to destabilize Moldova itself Comments by the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic and other Russian officials and proxies raise the possibility that Putin might recognize the self-styled Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) in Transnistria as he recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics The PMR could then ask for additional Russian protection and Putin could attempt to send some additional forces or capabilities to Transnistria Any such activities would greatly raise tensions and fears in Moldova and neighboring Romania possibly giving Putin a cheap “win,” and distracting from Russia’s slog in eastern Ukraine Continued indications that Russian forces intend to hold referenda to establish “people’s republics” in occupied areas of southern Ukraine raise the possibility that Putin intends to unveil an array of new “independent” “people’s republics” as part of a Victory Day celebration and there is as yet no solid basis to assess one path as much more likely than another But the false-flag attacks and Russian and Russian proxy reactions to them are alarming and it behooves NATO and the West to consider the most dangerous courses of action and prepare to meet them Subordinate Main Effort—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders) Russian forces continued ground and air assaults against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol on April 26 but were unsuccessful in storming the Azovstal Steel Plant.[1] Donetsk Oblast Administration Head Pavlo Kyrylenko said that Russian forces launched 35 airstrikes at Azovstal on April 26 Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to shell the entire frontline in Donetsk and Luhansk and made marginal advances during ground offensives on April 26.[6] The General Staff stated that Russian efforts are focused on taking Rubizhne where intense fighting is ongoing.[7] Forces of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) militia claimed to have taken control of Rubtsi and Yatskivka Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv and Izyum: (Russian objective: Advance southeast to support Russian operations in Luhansk Oblast; defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the Izyum axis) Russian forces continued ground offensives south of Izyum in the directions of Barvinkove and Slovyansk.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and 68th Army Corps are making measured advances in the direction of Barvinkove about 50 kilometers southwest of Izyum.[13] A Pro-Russian source claimed that Russian naval infantry units are operating in the direction of Slovyansk about 50 kilometers southeast of Izyum.[14] The Pro-Russian source additionally claimed that Ukrainian defenders are holding Dovhenke which is the last settlement in Kharkiv Oblast in the Slovyansk direction The Izyum- Barvinkove and Izyum-Slovyansk advances are likely meant to drive toward the administrative borders of Donetsk in order to merge offensives south of Izyum with offensives on the territory of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Barvinkove and Slovyansk are on different roads leading south from Izyum The objective of the Russian advance toward Barvinkove is not immediately obvious as it leads Russian troops further away from their comrades pushing on Slovyansk The road continues southeast from Barvinkove to the Donetsk Oblast boundary and it is possible that Russian forces from the Izyum axis are meant to take up positions along much of the boundary to support claims that Russia has “secured the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” even if the Russians have not actually secured the entire oblast itself These advances could also be intended to conduct a deep encirclement of Ukrainian forces to the east as well although it is far from clear that the Russian troops assigned to this advance are strong enough to accomplish such a task Elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army and the Baltic and Northern Fleets maintained a partial blockade of Kharkiv City and continued shelling settlements around Kharkiv City and throughout Kharkiv Oblast on April 26.[15] Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks) Russian forces continued to shell the entire line of contact on the Southern Axis and are carrying out ground offensives in the direction of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.[16] Russian forces are reportedly forcing residents of Velyka Oleksandrivka (roughly 15 kilometers from the Kherson-Mykolaiv administrative border) to evacuate their homes.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces suffered losses in the towns of Novodmytrivka and Bilousove both within 20 kilometers of the Kherson-Mykolaiv administrative border.[18] The Russian presence in areas near the border likely indicates preparation for an offensive in the direction of Mykolaiv and Mykolaiv on April 26.[19] The mayor of Melitopol claimed on April 25 that Russian forces are blocking men from leaving the city and forcing them to mobilize into the Russian army.[20] Russian forces likely conducted additional false flag attacks in the illegally-occupied territory of Transnistria on April 25-26 In addition to the grenade attack on the Transnistrian Internal Affairs Ministry that ISW reported on April 25 Russian forces shelled areas in Sumy Oblast near the Russian border between April 23 and 26 The Ukrainian Border Guard reported that Russian forces fired over 15 times at five different settlements in Sumy on April 26.[26] Head of the Sumy Regional State Administration Dmytro Zhyvystkyy previously stated that Russian forces carried out “provocative shelling” of communities on the border with Russia on April 23.[27] [1] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507; https://t.me/andriyshTime/494 [2] https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/3157; https://t.me/mariupolrada/9382; https://t.me/polkazov/4442; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7987; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7969 [3] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/68283 [5] https://t.me/mariupolnow/7962; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7967; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7974; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7982; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7983; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7984; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7985; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7992; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7996; https://t.me/mariupolnow/7999; https://t.me/mariupolnow/8000 [6] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507; https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1518916291570159618; https://t dot me/luhanskaVTSA/2026; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553; https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/3150?single; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507 [7] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553; https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1518916291570159618; https://t dot me/luhanskaVTSA/2026; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507; https://hromadske dot ua/posts/62-j-den-povnomasshtabnoyi-vijni-rosiyi-proti-ukrayini-tekstovij-onlajn; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507; https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/3150?single [8] https://twitter.com/islamicworldupd/status/1518809054168158208; https://www.facebook.com/groups/142215299746724/posts/1016313802336865/; https://twitter.com/GalinkaMk/status/1518112870436851712 [9] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553 [10] https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1518641558295355398; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=963506630991812 [11] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553 [12] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553; https://t dot me/sashakots/3179 [13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553 [15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553; https://t dot me/milinfolive/82039; https://t.co/0EItFP8ghz; https://twitter.com/kharkiv_warnews/status/1518865044817203201; https://t.me/synegubov/2984; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507 [16]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303378655308553; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/posts/2041788719325704; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/posts/2041393416031901; https://t dot me/stranaua/38605 [17] https://t dot me/denisovaombudsman/5457 [18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303029115343507 [20] https://www dot ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3467251-russia-intends-to-forcibly-mobilize-men-in-ukraines-melitopol.html 46.85599080336098 35.3628264302217; https://iz dot ru/1326428/2022-04-26/pushilin-prizval-uchest-pridnestrove-pri-sleduiushchikh-etapakh-spetcoperatcii ; https://military.pravda dot ru/news/1702502-dnr_pushilin_specoperacija/ [21] https://twitter.com/black_cerber/status/1518694551992610816; https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1518695474068344832; https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1518846724546215937; https://hromadske dot ua/posts/u-neviznanomu-pridnistrovyi-povidomili-pro-vibuhi-ta-poshkodzhennya-dvoh-anten-zmi https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1518876584865935361; https://twitter.com/rianru/status/1518845867884789760 [22] https://iz dot ru/1326428/2022-04-26/pushilin-prizval-uchest-pridnestrove-pri-sleduiushchikh-etapakh-spetcoperatcii ; https://military.pravda dot ru/news/1702502-dnr_pushilin_specoperacija/ [23] https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/299489785695782; https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/298929585751802 [24] https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/298929585751802 [25] https://www dot mvdpmr.org/povyshaia-professionalizm-zk/37574-ucheniya-v-sobre-terroristy-obezvrezheny.html; https://www.pravda dot com.ua/rus/news/2022/04/6/7337692/; https://www.eurointegration dot com.ua/rus/news/2022/04/6/7137359/; https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3451503-ukrainska-ppo-zbivatime-vijskovi-litaki-rf-pri-sprobi-potrapiti-do-pridnistrova-genstab.html [26] https://www.facebook.com/DPSUkraine/posts/325847486320795 The relevant statement was made by Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Head Oleh Syniehubov in an interview with Ukrinform “Now active hostilities are underway in the north of Kharkiv Region in the north-eastern direction and the south-eastern direction where active hostilities are being conducted The enemy is continuously making attempts to attack the positions of the Ukrainian military but has no success and retreats to the previously captured positions The enemy suffers significant losses in terms of manpower and equipment,” Syniehubov told Russians are pulling a large number of troops to the Izium direction to maintain a corridor used to direct forces to the Donetsk and Luhansk directions the enemy is making continuous attempts to break through the Ukrainian defense lines The settlements located close to Kharkiv are remaining under enemy fire The latter has been under continuous enemy fire over the past two weeks “Izium District also comes under enemy fire the industrial enterprises that remained there are being hit although they have nothing to do with the military and defense cluster,” Syniehubov added A reminder that 30% of Kharkiv Region is now under Russian occupation While citing and using any materials on the Internet links to the website ukrinform.net not lower than the first paragraph are mandatory citing the translated materials of foreign media outlets is possible only if there is a link to the website ukrinform.net and the website of a foreign media outlet Materials marked as "Advertisement" or with a disclaimer reading "The material has been posted in accordance with Part 3 of Article 9 of the Law of Ukraine "On Advertising" No 1996 and the Law of Ukraine "On the Media" No 2023 and on the basis of an agreement/invoice Online media entity; Media identifier - R40-01421 Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on April 27 Russian forces took several small towns directly west of Izyum in the past 24 hours While this line of advance takes Russian forces away from their main objective of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts they likely intend to outflank Ukrainian defensive positions on the highways to Barvinkove and Slovyansk Russian forces made several small advances in eastern Ukraine; Russia’s increasing concentration of artillery assets is likely enabling these tactical advances Russian forces are advancing methodically in several sectors but have achieved no notable breakthroughs The capability of Russian forces to encircle large groups of Ukrainian forces remains in doubt The Kremlin continued to prepare for a likely false-flag missile attack against the Moldovan territory of Transnistria which is illegally occupied by Russian forces Russian proxies in Transnistria falsely claimed Ukrainian forces are preparing to attack Transnistria and Ukrainian intelligence reported Russian forces are preparing to conduct a missile strike on Transnistria and blame Ukraine Russian and Transnistrian forces also increased their readiness for possible operations in the last 24 hours Russia may intend to involve Transnistria in the war in Ukraine to utilize Transnistria’s (limited) reserve forces or to launch attacks and shell Ukraine from Transnistrian territory The Kremlin may alternatively seek to destabilize Moldova itself to raise tensions in Moldova and neighboring Romania and put additional pressure on NATO possibly seeking to reduce Western military support to Ukraine either by diverting NATO forces to Romania or threatening a wider escalation Russian forces are stepping up “filtration measures” in occupied territories and abducting Ukrainian citizens likely for use in future prisoner exchanges Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 27 that Russian forces are conducting large-scale “filtration measures” in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts.[1] The “filtration” targets men of military age former military and law enforcement personnel and pro-Ukrainian activists for interrogation The GUR reported Russian forces are additionally shipping Ukrainian hostages to Crimea to “replenish the exchange fund,” seeking to exchange Ukrainian civilians for Russian military prisoners in future prisoner swaps The GUR additionally speculated that Russian forces may be preparing to use Ukrainian civilians to portray Prisoners of War in May 9th Victory Day celebrations noting that Russian forces conducted similar propaganda efforts in Donetsk in 2014 Ukrainian forces likely conducted drone or possibly missile strikes on Russian logistics centers in Belgorod and Voronezh on April 27 Russian sources and social media reported multiple explosions early on April 27 which Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak later euphemistically confirmed were Ukrainian strikes stating Russian cities cannot “sit out” the invasion of Ukraine and “the disarmament of the Belgorod-Voronezh warehouses is a natural process.”[2] Ukrainian forces will likely conduct further cross-border strikes to disrupt Russian logistics which the Kremlin will likely falsely frame as an escalation or somehow a war crime   Russian forces continued ground and air assaults against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant on April 27 The Ukrainian military reported Russian forces continued to conduct a high tempo of air strikes against Ukrainian defenders including by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers.[3] Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko and the commander of the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade separately reported that Russian forces continued ground assaults on the Azovstal facility and that Ukrainian forces are running low on food   Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts Russian forces made marginal advances in frontal assaults around Severodonetsk and Popasna on April 27 and continued to shell the entire frontline.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Russian forces captured Novotoshkirske and attempted to advance further west.[9] Russian forces advancing south from the Svatove area (west of Rubizhne) additionally captured the town of Zarichne.[10] Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in Avdiika near Donetsk city.[11] Russian forces are making slow progress on these multiple small axes of advance likely due to their increasing use of concentrated artillery but their ability to encircle Ukrainian forces and the extent to which they will be able to advance remain unclear   Russian forces in Izyum continued attacks on three lines of advance – southeast towards Slovyansk and directly west away from Donetsk Oblast – on April 27.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Nova Dmytrivka and repelled unspecified attacks towards Slovyansk.[13] The Ukrainian general Staff reported that elements of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army and 68th Army Corps are active on the Barvinkove front.[14] Two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) from the 76th Airborne Division – which was heavily damaged in fighting northwest of Kyiv – deployed from Belgorod to the Izyum frontlines on April 27.[15] The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense additionally reported that two Iskander-M ballistic missile batteries likely in part from the 20th CAA’s 448th Missile Brigade deployed to Belgorod Oblast from an unspecified location on April 27.[16] Russian forces made territorial advances directly west of Izyum capturing the town of Zavody and the outskirts of Velyka Komyshuvakha 20km west of Izyum.[17] Russian forces west of Izyum most likely intended to pivot southwards and advance on Barvinvoke after completing the capture of Velyka Komyshuvakha seeking to bypass Ukrainian defenses along the T2122 highway These forces could alternatively attempt a deep encirclement of Ukrainian forces that is unlikely to succeed as Russian forces pushing west of Izyum are moving away from the otherwise mutually-supporting Russian lines of advance roughly converging west of Severodonetsk Russian forces continued to partially encircle Kharkiv and shell civilian infrastructure across the oblast on April 27.[18]   Russian forces continued to shell along the entire line of contact along the southern axis and reinforce forward positions in preparation for the likely resumption of offensive operations towards Mykolayiv and Kryvyi Rih on April 27.[19] Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk stated that elements of Russia’s 8thCAA and airborne troops are reinforcing their forward positions and replenishing ammunition for further operations.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are actively conducting aerial reconnaissance in likely preparation for offensive operations.[21] Local fighting continued in the Mykolayiv direction with Russian forces conducting failed attacks towards Tavriyske and Nova Zorya and Ukrainian forces reportedly recapturing Shyroke 50 km north of Kherson.[22] Russian forces are likely attempting to recohere forces to launch larger-scale offensive operations in the coming days to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast but successful Ukrainian counterattacks are likely delaying and disrupting Russian operations Russian occupation forces continued preparations to announce the creation of a “Kherson People’s Republic” (KNR) amid widespread Ukrainian resistance The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 27 that Russian forces are printing ballots and conducting a census for a “referendum” and preventing civilians from leaving the occupied territories.[23] Multiple Ukrainian government sources reported that Russian forces are taking several steps to crack down on possible resistance   Russian forces also continued to prepare for a likely false-flag missile attack against the Moldovan territory of Transnistria The Kremlin mobilized Transnistrian proxy forces on April 27 as Russian state media began setting rhetorical conditions for the possible recognition of the self-styled Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) in Transnistria Russian media is increasingly reporting that Transnistria may need to “protect the interests of the republic” by declaring its independence and strengthened checkpoint security on April 27.[29] [1] https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/300052648972829 [2] https://t.me/tass_agency/130257; https://t.me/stranaua/38776; https://t.me/M_Podolyak/61?fbclid=IwAR2YisSID_hlZ1iIH8SGoOzZra_Uv4CwtP6J0_4g4fPrGruP9Mf4mZq81SY [3] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/04/27/okupanty-ne-prypynyayut-zavdavaty-aviaudariv-po-mariupolyu-z-dalnih-bombarduvalnykiv-tu-22m3/; [4] https://t.me/andriyshTime/511; https://t.me/stranaua/38821; https://t.me/mariupolnow/8176 [5] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868 [6] https://www.facebook.com/DefenceIntelligenceofUkraine/posts/300120265632734 [7] https://t.me/andriyshTime/512; https://t.me/andriyshTime/514 [8] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/2039; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/2052; https://t.me/stranaua/38762; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/2039 [9] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/2039 [10] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868 [11] https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/3161; https://t.me/stranaua/38790; https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1519297991886008320 [12] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504; [13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504; https://t.me/synegubov/3006 [14] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868 [15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868 [16] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/04/27/u-byelgorodskij-oblasti-v-30-km-vid-kordonu-z-ukrayinoyu-rozgornuto-batareyu-otrk-iskander-m/ [17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/04/27/u-byelgorodskij-oblasti-v-30-km-vid-kordonu-z-ukrayinoyu-rozgornuto-batareyu-otrk-iskander-m/ [18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868; https://t.me/synegubov/3006; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504 [19] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868 [20] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/04/27/na-kryvorizkomu-ta-mykolayivskomu-napryamkah-ochikuyetsya-aktyvizacziya-bojovyh-dij/ [21] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868 [22] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1638107116541847; https://www.unian.net/war/armiya-ukrainy-v-nikolaevskoy-oblasti-vernula-pod-kontrol-ryad-naselennyh-punktov-anton-gerashchenko-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-amp-11802558.html [23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504 [24] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1638107116541847; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/303742171938868; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504 [25] https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/1175; https://t.me/stranaua/38770; https://t.me/stranaua/38783; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/posts/2042505722587337 [26] https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1518885976721997825; https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1518885978328506368 [27] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1185223818907103; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1638107116541847 [28] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1638107116541847; https://t.me/stranaua/38758; https://t.me/stranaua/38766; https://t.me/stranaua/38772; https://t.me/tsvtiraspol/25000; https://t.me/tsvtiraspol/25011 [29] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/304045811908504; https://t.me/krepostpmr/33521; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1638107116541847 By Josh HolderMarco Hernandez and Jon HuangMay 24 Share full article364364The goals of Russia’s invasion keep getting smaller But its depleted military is still failing to make major advances After failing to topple Ukraine’s government in Kyiv Russia redeployed troops for a far less ambitious goal: Seize the rest of the Donbas beyond the area where Russia had already advanced a month ago Russia’s military has overwhelming superiority in weapons Russia has made only gradual progress along the Eastern front Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken ground outside Kharkiv diverting Russian forces and threatening their supply lines Russia’s military has had to accept the difficult reality that it doesn’t have the force necessary to fight in too many places at once The area with the most critical battles is only 75 miles wide and includes three key cities: Sloviansk The Kremlin is targeting five routes to Sloviansk that would allow it to encircle tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops An enormous Russian force has gathered in Izium and regularly sends units down the main highway to Sloviansk tanks batter Ukrainian defenses and attack helicopters fly overhead but Russia has failed to overwhelm the Ukrainian fighters In an attempt to cut off Ukrainian supply lines Russian soldiers have also targeted the main road and rail line connecting Sloviansk to the rest of Ukraine Each failed attempt takes a toll on Russia’s already depleted military as soldiers are injured or killed and units become smaller and less effective taking some villages and farmland north of the town of Lyman Russia’s playbook to capture towns and villages with limited manpower is brutal — destroy urban areas with heavy artillery and rocket fire This strategy suits the depleted Russian army which does not have the troops required for sustained urban warfare But Ukrainian forces have another key defensive resource impeding Russian progress: the Severski Donets River.When a Russian battalion tried to use pontoon bridges to cross the river this month Public evidence suggests well over 400 Russian soldiers may have been killed or wounded by Ukrainian artillery As advances north of Sloviansk have slowed or stalled Russia has started fighting for an even smaller area As the easternmost city still under Ukrainian control Sievierodonetsk is exposed to Russian artillery on multiple sides Shelling has destroyed vast areas of the city and civilians are left with no electricity or running water Ukrainian officials expect a siege similar to what Mariupol experienced Ukrainian troops will likely hold onto Sievierodonetsk as long as they can while inflicting as many losses on Russia’s military as possible Russia’s military has gained ground elsewhere in the Donbas It has finally taken over Mariupol after negotiating the surrender of the last significant pocket of Ukrainian fighters in the Azovstal steel plant It also forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Popasna after relentless shelling and missile strikes left no buildings for them to defend the city from Russia is now moving north from Popasna to try to encircle troops in Sievierodonetsk and prevent supplies getting in from the west But these victories aren’t enough for Russia to gain control of the Donbas and its problems may only worsen as the war drags on Russian forces are inflicting immense losses on the Ukrainian military but they are coming at a cost to Russia’s own supply of troops and equipment Ukraine continues to receive weapons from NATO countries that will better equip it for launching counterattacks Ukraine also has a more reliable supply of fighters than Russia does Putin of Russia has been reluctant to order a national draft and so Moscow is fighting at near peacetime staffing levels there is only so long that Russia can continue to push forward the longer their supply lines become and the more exposed they are to Ukrainian counterattacks so Russia has to reposition troops to defend territory it has already won Russia has a limited window to reestablish momentum and make significant advances it may be forced into more defensive positions the battle for the Donbas is likely to be the last major offensive of the war Approximate areas of fighting are drawn from Ukrainian and Russian official statements from Feb Areas of Russian presence and Ukrainian counterattacks are as of 4 p.m director of Russia studies at CNA; Konrad Muzyka defense analyst for Rochan Consulting; Henry Schlottman independent military analyst; Ukrainian and Russian officials; Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project; OpenStreetMap Michael Schwirtz and Thomas Gibbons-Neff contributed reporting Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced on July 7 that Russian forces in Ukraine are pausing to rest and regain their combat capabilities confirming ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have initiated an operational pause.[1] Konashenkov did not specify the intended length of Russian forces’ operational pause Russian forces have not ceased active hostilities during this operational pause and are unlikely to do so.[2] Russian forces still conducted limited ground offensives and air and missile strikes across all axes on July 7.[3] Russian forces will likely continue to confine themselves to small-scale offensive actions as they rebuild forces and set conditions for a more significant offensive in the coming weeks or months Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts Russian forces continued offensive operations near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border toward Slovyansk on July 7 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault on Bohorodychne about 20 km northwest of Slovyansk.[4] Russian forces also shelled several settlements northwest of Slovyansk and Dolyna.[5] Russian forces additionally conducted limited artillery strikes to the south of Barvinkove and fired on Nikopol and Novopavlivka.[6] These strikes may suggest that Russian forces are seeking to bypass Barvinkove to the east and either move toward the E40 Izyum-Slovyansk highway to advance southeast toward Slovyansk or move directly southeast from Barvinkove toward Kramatorsk Russian forces may be setting conditions for an eventual assault on Kramatorsk—which would run parallel to advances toward Slovyansk Russian forces conducted a missile strike directly on Kramatorsk on July 7.[7] Russian forces continued efforts to advance west toward Siversk from the Lysychansk area and made marginal gains near the Luhansk-Donetsk Oblast border on July 7 Geolocated combat footage from July 7 confirmed that forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) entered the eastern outskirts of Spirne about 10 km southwest of Siversk.[8] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian and Ukrainian troops continued to fight around Verkhnokamyanka about 15 km directly east of Siversk.[9] Russian forces also unsuccessfully attempted to advance in the direction of Hryhorivka (10 km northeast of Siversk) and Verkhnomayanske (5 km directly east of Siversk).[10] Russian forces shelled several settlements to the south and east of Siversk to continue to set conditions for further advances west of the Luhansk Oblast border.[11] Russian forces continued offensive operations to the south and east of Bakhmut on July 7 The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces attempted to improve their tactical positions in Vershyna 12 km southeast of Bakhmut.[12] Russian Telegram channel Rybar additionally claimed that Russian troops fought in Pokrovske and prepared for attacks on Ukrainian positions in Novoluhanske and at the Vuhledar Power Plant 20 km southeast of Bakhmut.[13] Russian forces reportedly shelled settlements to the east and south of Bakhmut to continue to set conditions for advances toward the city.[14] Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and fired on Ukrainian positions along the line of contact on July 7.[15] Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border) Russian forces attempted a limited ground assault north of Kharkiv City on July 7 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian offensive in the direction of Sosnivka 8 km from the international border.[16] Russian forces otherwise focused on maintaining their positions and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks.[17] Russian forces shelled Slatyne Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks) Russian forces attempted limited ground assaults to retake lost positions in Kherson Oblast on July 7 Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled platoon-sized and smaller Russian reconnaissance-in-force operations in Dobryanka and Potemkyne along the T2207 highway in northern Kherson Oblast on July 6 and 7.[19] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian forces launched 12 Kalibr high-precision cruise missiles at Mykolaiv City and Ochakiv Mykolaiv Oblast from positions in occupied Kherson Oblast likely targeting Ukrainian maritime infrastructure in both cities.[20] Ukrainian jets and air defense forces engaged a Russian Su-35 fighter jet as it launched missiles over Odesa Oblast successfully intercepting the missile and forcing the jet to withdraw.[21] Russian forces continued to hold their occupied positions and conduct artillery strikes along the entire Southern Axis to constrain Ukrainian counteroffensives.[22] Ukrainian partisans in and around occupied Melitopol Zaporizhia Oblast are increasingly targeting Russian rail lines The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans blew up a railway bridge about 25 km north of Melitopol between Novobohdanivka and Troitske on July 7 likely further obstructing Russian resupply efforts from Crimea to the Zaporizhia Oblast front line.[23] Ukrainian partisans had previously blown up a rail bridge near occupied Lyubimivka between Melitopol and Tokmak on July 3 and derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.[24] The increase in reported activity supports ISW’s prior assessment that a Ukrainian partisan campaign is targeting Russian rail lines near Melitopol.[25] Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization) Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing) [1] https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/15150167; [2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-6 [3] https://t.me/mod_russia/17471; https://t.me/mod_russia/17472; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid028vrmqSLw3UUrmw13nqLxJui6fJW6YyVVhzPXmzkk6oDwqhwRWudjbjokoLLeqwyal; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=464082752200380; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/735326434258091/ [4] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l [5] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid028vrmqSLw3UUrmw13nqLxJui6fJW6YyVVhzPXmzkk6oDwqhwRWudjbjokoLLeqwyal; https://t.me/milinfolive/86554 [6] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l [7] https://t.me/pavlokyrylenko_donoda/3949?single; https://suspilne dot media/258134-vnaslidok-raketnogo-udaru-po-kramatorsku-zaginula-1-ludina-ta-6-poranenih/; https://www.facebook.com/alexander.vasilyevich.goncharenko/posts/pfbid02x6F8wfC1vBfScFS4E1bynKQbj25fxYDAXNe1GECyfG9uTF6KYzBcQ3Wa3Y8VekKTl; https://t.me/spravdi/12645; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/15096; https://t.me/kramatorsk_rada/4162 [8] https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1545071150828494850; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid028vrmqSLw3UUrmw13nqLxJui6fJW6YyVVhzPXmzkk6oDwqhwRWudjbjokoLLeqwyal; https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1545071150828494850; https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1545071075268124674;  https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1545071138795053060;  https://t.me/wargonzo/7467; https://t.me/rybar/35070 [10] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l; https://t.me/rybar/35070; [11] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid028vrmqSLw3UUrmw13nqLxJui6fJW6YyVVhzPXmzkk6oDwqhwRWudjbjokoLLeqwyal; https://t.me/mod_russia/17471 [12] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l [14] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l [15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid028vrmqSLw3UUrmw13nqLxJui6fJW6YyVVhzPXmzkk6oDwqhwRWudjbjokoLLeqwyal; https://t.me/nm_dnr/8417 [16] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l [17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l [19] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid028vrmqSLw3UUrmw13nqLxJui6fJW6YyVVhzPXmzkk6oDwqhwRWudjbjokoLLeqwyal; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=464082752200380; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/735326434258091/ [20] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=464082752200380 [21] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=735326434258091 [22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jqWK7vGuWz7EANbi5SiDc9XeHMLKZ6qqbjQuRMuqmwnq96LPZKQuWReccTtzfpk2l; https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1544802815813554176; https://twitter.com/JoshuaKoontz__/status/1544810645006213121; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid028vrmqSLw3UUrmw13nqLxJui6fJW6YyVVhzPXmzkk6oDwqhwRWudjbjokoLLeqwyal; https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/1711 [23] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/07/07/v-okupovanij-zaporizkij-oblasti-pidirvaly-shhe-odyn-mist/ [24] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4 [25] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-4 [27] https://t.me/milinfolive/86529; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-6; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-2 The Russians are staging attack helicopters at the border with Ukraine and bringing in soldiers and artillery, according to the Pentagon, as both sides furiously prepare for what is expected to be a bloody battle to control the vast plains of the country's east. The preparations come as Russia appears to be further narrowing its war aims, at least for the moment, having pulled back from the north around Kyiv, the capital, after its forces were pummeled. With the sinking Thursday of its navy's Black Sea Fleet flagship, possibly by a powerful new Ukrainian missile, Russia may also have to scale back its immediate ambitions in the southeast, where analysts say it does not currently have the capacity to take the entire Black Sea coast. Analysts and US officials fear that the fight for Mariupol is a harbinger of what is to come in the east - less of a lightening-fast war driven by special forces and more of a grinding, slower-moving war that seems to favor Russia’s bigger, better-armed military. In other developments, Russia's Defense Ministry said it had struck a missile factory on the outskirts of Kyiv and threatened to increase the "number and scale of missile strikes against facilities" in Ukraine's capital in response to any "terrorist attacks and acts of sabotage" on the Russian territory. CIA Director William Burns said Thursday that "potential desperation" to extract the semblance of a victory could tempt President Vladimir Putin of Russia to order the use of a tactical or low-yield nuclear weapon. The comments publicly voiced a concern that has coursed through the White House during the seven weeks of conflict. The European Union, which this month banned Russian coal for the first time, is now likely to adopt a similarly phased ban of Russian oil, EU officials and diplomats said. Putin acknowledged Thursday that Western sanctions had hurt his country's vital energy sector. Dmitry Medvedev, a senior Russian security official, said Thursday that if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, there would be "no more talk of a nuclear-free Baltics" region. - This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Facebook pageTwitter feed© 2025 The Irish Times DAC The relevant statement was made the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook Russian troops continue to conduct full-scale armed aggression and offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone the Russian military were launching air and artillery strikes on the city of Kharkiv Russia’s separate units of the 1st Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District the 35th Combined Arms Army and the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District and airborne troops are attempting to advance in the Izium-Barvinkove and Izium-Sloviansk directions Russian troops continue to concentrate forces and resources both in the temporarily occupied territories of Kharkiv Region and in Russia’s Belgorod Region in the immediate vicinity of the state border with Ukraine Russian invaders moved the units of the 55th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District to Volokhiv Yar and the units of the 5th Independent Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District to Izium The enemy is increasing the air defense system conducting air reconnaissance of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in such settlements as Velyka Komyshuvakha Russian occupation forces continue to carry out illegal actions within the occupied areas of Kharkiv Region Russian invaders are forcibly deporting civilians to the territory of the Russian Federation Russian occupiers are spreading misinformation about the seizure of Kharkiv Russian troops are conducting active hostilities all over the contact line The enemy is launching continuous air and artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions Russian invaders are focusing on offensive operations in the direction of Lyman Popasna and Kurakhove to gain full control over such settlements as Rubizhne and Popasna and Russian troops continued to launch air strikes on the city The enemy is focusing efforts to block the Ukrainian defense units within the Azovstal plant Russian invaders were regrouping and expanding artillery units in order to continue the offensive the enemy continues to take demonstrative actions to prevent the Ukrainian Army from transferring its units to other areas Russian occupation forces of the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies the coastal units of the Black Sea Fleet of the Southern Military District and airborne troops are fighting to improve their tactical position Russian troops are making preparations to carry out the offensive and reach the administrative border of Kherson Region Russian invaders continue to fire on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Russian occupiers are spreading misinformation about the threat to the population of Transnistria from Ukraine the Belarusian Armed Forces continue to perform tasks to strengthen the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in Brest Region and Gomel Region The head of the Royal Air Force has told Sky News the war in Ukraine is now in a “precarious” phase - with the Russian military “resetting and positioning” ahead of what may be an “even more brutal” campaign Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player That’s according to the latest war update by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “The enemy led the offensive in the directions of the settlements of Bakhmut having retreated to previously held positions They tried to take control of the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and create conditions for its crossing by the main forces of the group,” the report reads No signs of any offensive groups forming were spotted in the Volyn and Polissya directions Belarus forces started an exercise at the Vyzhlovichi training ground in Brest region The threat of missile strikes from Belarus remains in place the enemy took no significant action and no signs of strike groups being formed were seen In order to locate the positions of Ukrainian troops enemy UAVs conducted reconnaissance missions in certain areas in Sumy and Chernihiv regions They also fired a rocket at the settlement of Krasnopillya in Sumy region and mortared Mykhalchyna Sloboda in Chernihiv region the enemy is focusing its main efforts on restraining the advance of Ukrainian troops toward the border with Russia They are trying to find weak spots in Ukraine’s defenses and determine further areas of action The efforts to maintain logistical support and strengthen the grouping continue while also destroying civilian targets in the city of Kharkiv Their Mi-8 helicopters launched an air strike at the positions of Ukraine’s troops near Slatyne and Dementiyivka the enemy is preparing to resume the offensive having amassed a grouping of up to 20 battalion tactical groups In order to improve the tactical situation they tried to launch an offensive in the directions of Barvinkove and Sviatohirsk the enemy focused its main efforts in the area of ​Siverodonetsk they stormed residential areas in the eastern part of the city with partial success the occupiers used jet and barrel artillery in the areas of Shchurove and Brusivka The enemy waged no active hostilities in the Avdiyivka barrel,and jet artillery shelling was recorded in the areas of Pisky in some areas trying to regain lost ground The situation in the Bessarabian direction has not changed significantly The main efforts of enemy naval groups in the Black Sea and Azov Maritime Zones focused on isolating hostility zones and blocking civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea Forcible mobilization of civilians continues in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk region the command of the occupying forces is trying to enroll as many conscripts as possible to make up for the losses their units have suffered on the battlefield Russian commanders are working to intensify reconnaissance and sabotage efforts in Ukraine they recruit and train mercenaries set to form sabotage and reconnaissance groups Preferable candidates for the job are former and present residents of Donetsk and Luhansk regions who are fluent in Ukrainian The relevant statement was made by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook the enemy continued to conduct offensive operations within the Eastern Operational Zone in order to defeat the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) group gain full control over Donetsk Region and Luhansk Region and ensure a land route between these territories and the temporarily occupied Crimea Russian troops did not take active actions There were no significant changes in the positions and activity of enemy units guarding the Ukrainian-Belarusian border and the Ukrainian-Russian border Russian invaders continued shelling such settlements as Kharkiv Prudianka and Korobochkyne with cannon and rocket artillery systems In the Izium-Barvinkove and Izium-Sloviansk directions the enemy attempted to conduct storming operations but failed Russian troops were shelling such settlements as Velyka Komyshuvakha the enemy launched artillery strikes on the positions of Ukrainian forces Russian troops launched missile and air strikes on the Azovstal plant Russian invaders are conducting storming operations near Popasna Russian troops opened fire on the positions of Ukrainian forces near Kniazivka and Mykolaivka the JFO group has successfully repelled seven enemy attacks Michael Sheldon is a researcher for Bellingcat He has a background in open source research and verification on the conflict in the Donbas Russian officials have blamed the strike on Ukraine citing claims that the Russian military does not use the Tochka-U Pro-Russian media cited other assertions relating to the missile’s serial number and a hypothesised flight path of the missile That same day, a popular Russian pro-war Telegram channel advised civilians evacuating the two cities against travelling by rail Less than 20 minutes later, reports emerged that Kramatorsk was under fire. By 10:44 am, Kamyshin announced on his Telegram channel that two missiles had struck the Kramatorsk railway station "Работают по скоплению боевиков ВСУ"https://t.co/mRdWVzyDyo #Краматорск #warcrimes pic.twitter.com/16tpns8ugY — Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) April 8, 2022 An hour later, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) denied any culpability. Its statement emphasised that the missile found in Kramatorsk was a Tochka-U — a type which it claimed Russia did not operate. Steshin also made this claim on his Twitter account alleging that the Russian military had not used the Tochka-U for 30 years In an updated statement, the Russian MoD later claimed that the Ukrainian 19th Missile Brigade had fired the Tochka-U missiles at Kramatorsk from Dobropillya The statement also insisted that open source videos showing Russian-operated Tochka-Us in fact showed the same model of missile operated by the Belarusian military during joint Russian-Belarusian exercises leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine other open source evidence appears to contradict this This is not the first time that Russia has denied operating the Tochka-U missile system. On March 16, two days after a missile struck the centre of Donetsk, Russia’s mission to the UN also denied that its military used the weapon Credit: Logan Williams / Bellingcat / Natural Earth The Tochka-U missile plays a central role in the Russian authorities’ insistence that their armed forces could not possibly have been behind the missile strike on Kramatorsk they insist that the Russian military has phased out use of this ballistic missile These claims are seemingly in line with a recent modernisation drive for Russia’s military. In June 2020, state media website Interfax reported that the entire Russian military had updated its missile systems replacing the Tochka-U with the more modern Iskander Scott LaFoy Director of Nuclear and Technology Security Programs at Exiger Government Solutions who has spent his career as an open source analyst focusing on ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons systems told Bellingcat that Russia “didn’t exactly throw them all in a river” when describing what it may have done with the leftover Tochka series According to the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a reporting partner of Bellingcat, a train loaded with Tochka-U launchers and loader vehicles (based on the BAZ 5921 and 5922 chasses respectively) moved from Homyel in Belarus to the Russian city of Belgorod in late March CIT cited a March 30 video which was posted to Twitter by the prominent user GirkinGirkin showing the launchers being transported by train a train carrying Tochka-U missile launchers was filmed in Gomel The launchers's V markings indicate they are Russian, as we have not seen any Belarusian vehicles with such markings.https://t.co/KCCIeH1b4w pic.twitter.com/ifcOT3UZZn — CIT (en) (@CITeam_en) April 8, 2022 This would be in line with the ongoing Russian retreat from the Kyiv front and consolidation in the east The vehicles were marked with ‘V’ tactical marks which are used by the Russian armed forces involved in the war against Ukraine The Hajun Project, a group of anonymous Belarusian researchers, posted images of these same vehicles on Twitter on March 18 The team claimed that the launchers had arrived in Belarus’ Minsk region on a Russian Air Force An-124 as an additional batch to supplement Russian Tochka-Us which had already arrived earlier in the month Bellingcat was unable to independently verify this claim the vehicles did not yet have their ‘V’ tactical marks and still had their original numbers painted on Judging by their similar wear and camouflage patterns these vehicles appeared to be the same as those seen heading towards Belgorod by railway ⚡️New batch of Tochka-U tactical ballistic missiles was brought to Belarus Today at 14:12 (Minsk time), Russian An-124 Ruslan heavy cargo aircraft landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (Minsk region).1/3 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Uk1m3bHifL — Belarusian Hajun project (@MotolkoHelp) March 18, 2022 Гомель pic.twitter.com/YLesW3sSZQ — IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) March 31, 2022 Comparison between Russian Tochka-U launchers seen in Belarus on March 18 and heading towards Belgorod on March 30 Note the seemingly identical wear and camouflage markings The painted number two appears to have been replaced by a number four in the bottom image comparison although the other wear and markings on the side remain identical Furthermore Rob Lee, a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) wrote that in April 2021, during a previous Russian military buildup on its border with Ukraine, vehicles which he believed resembled Tochka-Us could be seen moving through Rostov Oblast Tochka-Us could again be seen in May 2021 when they took part in a Victory Day parade in the southern city of Krasnodar clearly names the missile systems as a Tochka-U to the Russian social media network VK showed two soldiers atop what appeared to be a Tochka-U loader vehicle The user’s profile indicates that he has recently served in the Russian armed forces The image was geotagged to the 47th Missile Brigade’s garrison An image taken from the VK page that appears to show Russian soldiers atop a Tochka-U laoder vehicle posted in October 2021 Satellite imagery of the 47th Missile Brigade’s garrison (45.5207962801, 39.3634004539) also shows that vehicles with measurements (six wheels, approximately 9.5 metres in length) consistent with Tochka-U launchers and loaders as recently as February 2022 more detailed imagery would be required to be absolutely conclusive about the Tochka-U’s presence there at this time Left: Satellite imagery from Google Earth showing vehicles that match the dimensions of Tochka-U launchers and loaders near Korenovsk. Right: The dimensions of the Tochka-U launchers and loaders are listed on the Bastion Karpenko website (“длина в походном положении 9486” which translates as length in the stowed position 9,486 cm) More recently, according to Amnesty International, Russia deployed Tochka-U missiles during the first days of the invasion. Amnesty’s weapons investigator found that remains of the weapon that hit a hospital in Vuhledar in Eastern Ukraine bore the hallmarks of a Tochka-U missile In addition to the spot where the missile body of the missile landed about 50 metres south-west of the main station building in Kramatorsk five impact points were clearly identifiable A map detailing impact sites around the Kramatorsk railway station (Image: Google Earth In footage showing the aftermath of the strike, the roof of a building to the northernmost part of the affected area suffered damage Further south, a crater appeared on the ground at the base of another south-southeast facing wall Several casualties were also observed at this location Information shared on pro-Russian Telegram channels compared the area where the missile’s missile body landed with the general impact zone of the cluster munitions but the general trend has them pointing in a south-westerly direction Sample images used to blame Ukrainian forces for the attack. Source: Telegram left, right the experts contacted by Bellingcat again suggested that the direction of the submunitions and missile fragments are not in themselves useful evidence of its precise origin once the submunitions are deployed (at around two kilometres from impact) the remaining body of the missile likely becomes far less stable due to the change in weight dispersal it will not behave like a traditional projectile when falling down I would not interpret anything into the impact position of the missile body,” he added Another claim circulating on pro-Russian Telegram groups and Twitter was that the serial number visible on the missile wreckage southwest of the station building was allegedly in the same range as missiles used by the Ukrainian military While serial number ranges might be useful to determine ownership of other weapons this does not appear to be the case for Tochka-U missiles The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence told Bellingcat in email correspondence that the missiles were manufactured within Soviet Russia and delivered to storage bases Image allegedly proving Ukrainian culpability in the missile strike on Kramatorsk From the Telegram channel of Russian state official Alexey Rogozin former director of Russia’s space agency Roskosmos they added that a Tochka-U missile with the number VG910840 was used by Ukraine in 2014 while also pointing out that another was documented four years later in Syria (where Russia has militarily backed President Bashar al Assad) with a serial number just 25 digits higher (VG910865) This appears to match open source evidence from both Snizhne and Syria Large amounts of footage emerged from the separatist-held towns of Khartsyzk, Zuhres, Shakhtyorsk, and Torez on 8 April showing several missile launches in the minutes preceding the Kramatorsk hit from areas south of the towns it was not possible to determine which missiles were used Russia on Tuesday called on Ukrainian forces to "immediately" lay down arms and issued a new ultimatum for the defenders of the besieged port city of Mariupol to give up their resistance The Russian defence ministry's warning came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced late on Monday the start of a new offensive by Moscow focused on the east of the former Soviet state "We once again call on the Kyiv authorities to show reason and give the corresponding orders to fighters to cease their senseless resistance," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement understanding that they will not get such instructions and orders from the Kyiv authorities we call on (the fighters) to voluntarily take this decision and to lay down their arms." The statement made no direct mention of a new ground offensive in eastern Ukraine But it warned that Moscow had "real-time proof about terrible new crimes being prepared by the Kyiv regime" The defence ministry added that Ukrainian fighters resisting the advancing Russian forces in the Sea of Azov port of Mariupol were in a "catastrophic situation" "The Russian armed forces once again offer the nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries a chance to stop all military activity and to lay down their arms "Everyone who lays down their arms will be guaranteed survival." please register for free or log in to your account.