“Crimea is our land, our territory,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared in January, underscoring Ukraine's determination to reverse Russia’s illegal seizure of the peninsula
Ukraine may lack the military capability to retake Crimea
but Kyiv might still achieve some of its key objectives by blockading it
despite having been under Russian control since 2014
Russia uses the peninsula as an important base for logistical support to Russian forces in occupied areas of Ukraine
It could enable Ukraine to strike military targets across Crimea
Ukraine could use additional capabilities to neutralize most Russian military power in Crimea. It has demonstrated the use of explosive uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) in attacks against Russian warships based at Sevastopol
low-profile USVs laden with explosives are directed toward targets
This emerging technology can sink warships and destroy maritime infrastructure
or longer if under fire.
The geography that makes Crimea hard to invade facilitates a modern-day siege
All Russian movements by land must pass through one of two constrained corridors
The first entails traversing hundreds of miles of occupied territory
including areas relatively close to the front and crawling with hostile populations
a target-rich place with minimal room for maneuver and within range of current Ukrainian weapons
The other land route is via the Crimean Bridge
which Ukrainian forces damaged in October as a “birthday gift” to Russian President Vladimir Putin
which is one reason why Russia’s claim that the damage was due to a truck bomb (and an ensuing fire) may be implausible.
Rather, the attack might have been inflicted by a USV
It can carry a larger explosive payload than a truck and strike a bridge from its vulnerable underside
While Russia has repaired much of the damage and will be on guard against follow-on attacks
a concerted swarm of explosive USVs — perhaps complemented by air attacks diverting defenders’ attention — could break the bridge indefinitely.
Maritime shipping could be targeted by explosive USVs, and possibly by clandestine USV minelaying at port entrances. The costs of USVs and mines are small compared to the effects they would generate
Port facilities and ground transportation networks leading from them could be barraged by longer-range fires.
Russia would continue to resupply Crimea via air
but aircraft can deliver only a fraction of the materiel that ground vehicles or ships can
Ukraine could attenuate this flow by targeting runways and fuel facilities on the peninsula
although this may require time-sensitive locational intelligence.
USVs could enable Ukrainian forces to blockade Crimea
Ukrainian forces could hinder Russian forces from using it as a safe haven from which to attack the mainland or threaten Black Sea shipping
Russian forces in Crimea could become less capable
Ukrainian forces could pin down and neuter the enemy in Crimea while they work to oust it from other parts of their country
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Vox Populi
Vox Dei is a daily column that runs on Page 1 of The Asahi Shimbun
A mother’s arms cradle her sleeping infant in an underground bunker
An 11-year-old boy traveled 1,000 kilometers alone
Ukrainian children have been living in horrendous circumstances since Russia invaded their country
and I have come across many reports of the dire predicament they are in
the latest report I read left me speechless
It was about Russia detaining thousands of Ukrainian children for “re-education.”
Compiled by Yale University in collaboration with the U.S
says at least 6,000 children have been detained at 43 facilities in Russia
as well as on the Russian-controlled Crimean Peninsula
The children are said to range in age from 4 months to 17 years old
and some have ended up in the Russian Far East
What is most despicable is how the Russian government rounds them up
low-income parents are told their children are being taken to an all-expenses-paid “fun summer camp.” Once their children are gone
And even if parents manage to find their children’s whereabouts and try to bring them home
the only way to do so is to personally travel to the facilities and pick up their children--a virtual impossibility with the war going on
Detained children are forced to attend classes and lectures by retired Russian soldiers
the purpose being to make them “pro-Russia.” Some facilities also give military training
One youth was denied his request to go home because he was deemed “too pro-Ukraine.”
The report says the Russian government is deeply involved in operating a systematic program that potentially constitutes a war crime
but the Kremlin’s rebuttal is that the program is designed for the benefit of “orphans.”
Their young and flexible bodies and minds are force-fed
I once met a child soldier who was sent to a battleground in Southeast Asia
Trapped in political disputes and detained far away from their parents and hometowns
the young Ukrainian victims of Russia’s program have no way of going back
and I am outraged that such a tragedy still exists in this day and age
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An 18-year-old Ukrainian unintentionally crossed into Crimean waters after falling asleep on an inflatable raft on the Ukrainian coast and spending three days in open water
dozed off on an inflatable raft on the coast of Lazurnoye
a Ukrainian resort town where he works as a security guard
The following morning, he woke up in open water in the Black Sea, the state-run news agency RIA Novosti reports
after spending almost three days in 40 degrees Celsius heat and without any food or water
The young man was in a state of extreme fatigue and dehydration and taken to a hospital in the Crimean coastal town of Chernomorskoye
The authorities have not yet commented on how he will be returned to Ukraine
Since Russia annexed the Black Sea peninsula in March 2014
relations between Moscow and Kiev have soured and travel from Ukraine to Crimea— once among the most popular tourist destinations for Ukrainians — has become more difficult