Apr 21 — During the “Easter ceasefire,” the Russian army continued the attacks in Kharkiv Oblast
reported Ukraine’s officials and military
stationed in different sections of the frontline in the region
to find out about their experience during so-called truce
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the Russian side would cease all hostilities from 6:00 p.m
As an example, on Easter afternoon, Russians attacked a five-story residential building with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Kivsharivka village of the Kupiansk district, setting fire to 36 apartments, reported the local State Emergency Service.
During the timeframe of the “ceasefire,” Zelensky said that Ukrainian troops would mirror Russia’s actions—open fire after being attacked.
Viktor Trehubov, the speaker of the “Khortytsia” operational-strategic group of forces that covers part of the Kharkiv Oblast, said to “Suspilne” that the “ceasefire” seemed more like a “smoke break.”
“Russian maneuvers look like assaults under the white flag
It seems they really want to trigger a visual attack so that we think they are assaulting to make us attack them back,” said Trehubov
“No one (from our military) counted on anything
we’ve seen these “ceasefires” many times (since 2014)
We didn’t conduct any assaults on Easter but responded to Russian attack attempts.”
about 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the Russian border.
said that while Russian troops refrained from attacking from artillery
they used drones to attack the positions of Ukrainian forces during the “ceasefire.” They also used 30 hours to accumulate more of their forces
Russians did so on other sections of the frontline as well — for instance, they tried to pull out remnants of destroyed military equipment from the river crossing in Donetsk Oblast that obstructed the passage for their machinery
a city that’s 5 miles (3 kilometers) away from the Russian border
the 42nd brigade said to Gwara that the Russians shelled their positions but didn’t conduct any assaults.
“The enemy was accumulating their troops and preparing logistics
We’re expecting the renewal of offensives,” Vadym Ivashchenko
the 42nd brigade received an order not to shoot until 00:00 on April 20
“We did reconnaissance and monitored the enemy
“The enemy’s cannon fire kept hitting Ukrainian positions
and cities during the entire time of the so-called ceasefire
Russian drones continued doing reconnaissance and attacking,” Yurii Fedorenko
the commander of the strike drone battalion “Achilles,” said to Gwara Media about the unit’s experience on the Kupiansk axis.
Fedorenko said that the Russian infantry gathered up to the zero line during the ceasefire
armored equipment to [the zones where their forces were accumulating.] So
de facto there was no truce,” Fedorenko said.
Bohdan Petrenko, the head of communications for the 48th artillery brigade, said that Russians attempted to cross to the right bank of the Oskil River on the Kupiansk axis — and the attempt was stopped.
“We have an experience of Russia violating ceasefire promises since 2014
so our military was constantly monitoring the enemy.”
115th brigade of the Armed Forces experienced quiet
our intelligence and Russian intelligence were very actively working,” said the speaker for the brigade.
Russians in the Lyman direction used these 30 hours to regroup
DeepState analysts say that the Russian military wasn’t attacking where they understand that the “truce” can be used to set up and prepare assaults
“We have to understand that Russian intent is to destroy the Ukrainian state,” Yurii Fedorenko said
While Russia demands full control of four partially occupied regions of Ukraine as a peace deal condition
Washington’s “peace plan,” according to the WSJ’s journalists
establishing a neutral zone around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia
Commander from Achilles is sure that the “one-sided ceasefire” on Easter is how Putin “plays along” with Trump’s attempts to bring Russia-Ukraine war to a freeze
The Russian President plans to use Trump as a guide that “will give him an opportunity to leave the economic isolation—lift sanctions,” Fedorenko believes.
there’s no tool that would maintain a commitment to this ceasefire
standing between the Russian Federation’s soldiers and our soldiers and making sure that there are no provocations from either side
That Russia cannot realize its intent: to gather up more forces
Putin-proposed Easter ceasefire ends with Russia not reacting to Zelenskyy’s proposal to prolong it to 30 days, multiple Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure, and intense fighting on the border of Sumy Oblasts.
Authors: Yelizaveta Diachenko, Liza Bykova, Yana Sliemzina
UPD from Apr 21, 6:02 p.m.: Names for speakers of “Khartia” and 42nd brigade added.
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This was reported by Oleh Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, on Telegram
a guided aerial bomb strike hit the village of Kivsharivka in Kupiansk district
A male paramedic was injured but refused hospitalization
a FAB-500 bomb strike partially destroyed an apartment building and damaged ten more residential houses
four FPV drone strikes damaged a private home and two utility buildings
artillery shelling damaged three private houses
a drone crashed into a reed area in open terrain
A private home was damaged as a result of a multiple launch rocket system strike
Outside the village of Shestakove in Chuhuiv district
a Lancet drone strike reportedly ignited an excavator in a field
an FPV drone strike caused a fire in a tracked excavator and ignited grass over an area of 20 square meters
A 38-year-old excavator operator was injured and hospitalized
Between Kupiansk and the village of Kindrashivka in Kupiansk district
an explosive device dropped by an FPV drone (type being identified) injured two women
four guided aerial bomb strikes reportedly hit the outskirts of the village
two guided aerial bomb strikes caused fires in two garages and a car across 40 square meters
Russian forces attempted an offensive once in the Vovchansk area on the Kharkiv front
Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three Russian attacks near Nova Kruhliakivka and Zahryzove
a Russian drone exploded near a car on the road between Kivsharivka and Kupiansk
Photo: Kharkiv Regional Military Administration
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The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office wrote this in a post on Telegram
"Under the procedural guidance of the Kupiansk District Prosecutor's Office of the Kharkiv Region
a pre-trial investigation has been initiated into the commission of a war crime (Part 1 of Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine)," the statement reads
the attack occurred on April 13 at approximately 12:00 and was carried out using an Uragan multiple launch rocket system
The shelling caused damage to an apartment building
and a 71-year-old man was injured and hospitalized
a Russian drone struck the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv
damaging a kindergarten and several high-rise buildings
Photo credit: Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office
UKRAINE — “The water will get in.” Volodymyr circles his car with an attached trailer
He doesn’t think his “Volga” will survive the upcoming Oskil crossing.
“The water there reaches up to about your knees,” one of the volunteers tries
“Don’t you have door seals?” another volunteers says
his family—his wife Natalia and her father Serhii—does not have muchchoice
The other path is increasingly targeted by Russian troops as Moscow tries to take
the part of the Kharkiv region to the east of the Oskil River
Ukraine’s Kharkiv counteroffensive pushed Russian troops out of most of the Kharkiv region in the autumn of 2022
they’ve been chipping away at the Armed Forces’ defenses
trying to occupy the territory they were pushed from again
Kupiansk is an important logistics and railroad hub for the entire region and was most useful to Moscow’s supply lines in the first months of full-scale invasion
That’s one of Russia’s main targets.
prodding for weaknesses in Ukraine’s defense with countless mobile groups and utilizing the advantage in firepower
Russia managed to get close to the river in two large sections northeast and southeast of Kupiansk
The military says Moscow’s overall plan for the region is to seize the entire left bank of Oskil.
Local authorities announced evacuation from the Kupiansk district to the east of the Oskil River back in the spring of 2024—and
Gwara Media joined volunteers from “Nezlamna” (“Unbreakable”) charity on an evacuation mission to the left bank of the Oskil River and talked to people deciding to leave or stay amidst frequent Russian attacks.
After more than 2,5 years of going to the places Russia approaches to get people out of them
Joke as they wait for their colleagues near the gas station
tell the stories from previous evacuation missions.
“We’re always late because some bastard is sleeping too long,” Slava Ilchenko
a volunteer who just arrived at the gathering
She’s one of Slava’s rescues from multiple evacuations—he couldn’t part with her after she jumped right onto his car’s passenger seat and refused to leave.
“No one’s overslept today…” Oleksandr Pidhirnyy
and their cars move through the smoke from forests
burning because of Russian airstrikes at the Kharkiv region
Airstrikes are not the only danger volunteers have to account for
several senior women agreed to evacuate from Kruhliakivka
We were driving to them and saw the petal mines thrown on the road by Russia
there was barbed wire and TMs [ТМ-62M — Soviet anti-tank mines — ed.],” Slava says.
Remote mining allows Russia to target civilians and prevent evacuation where their troops can’t reach
That significantly complicates getting from the left bank of Oskil to safety
the “Nezlamna” team couldn’t reach the women
FPVs and other drones are constantly flying above our heads
who’s going to help people to evacuate?” Oleksandr says.
Russia also tracks volunteers’ accounts online
The team says social media is a valuable tool to reach people who need help and establish trust
Less than an hour after the team crosses the river and records a video report for their social media
Slava finds that video on pro-Russian Telegram channels
an organization that curates evacuation and humanitarian aid in the region
clothes if they need any—and either assigned to a dormitory or provided with money for the tickets to the cities they’ve chosen to go to.
Maria sells vegetables at the desolate farmer’s market in Kivsharivka
Her colleagues scatter around from journalists but remain close
People in places Russia targets often aren’t fond of being filmed
afraid Russia will target the places they frequent or that their appearance in Ukrainian media will get them in trouble if Russia takes over their homes.
There is a sound of shelling in the background
where a Russian air strike destroyed a small shop to its foundations
“The girls working there died in this attack,” Maria says
Maria would leave if she was sure she and her husband would find work and proper housing in the next place
taking seasonal jobs to Odesa and Carpathians to cook for local restaurants
she’s not sure if they’d find work in Kharkiv
and what she knows of accommodations Ukraine provides for internally displaced people (IDPs) also doesn’t encourage her to leave
Maria tries to convince her husband to evacuate
The couple have already lived through one Russian occupation.
eggplants and other vegetables are presented on Maria’s stall
though Maria says the harvest wasn’t good this year
couldn’t use the pump to water the garden.”
“We’ve never thought our senior years would be like that
Volunteers say the fact people don’t want to evacuate early is one of the biggest obstacles to their work
like when Russians mined the road to Kruhliakivka remotely
it’s too late to get them by then.
is that both Russia and local opportunists disrupt evacuation via misinformation
Volunteers of “Nezlamna” often have to convince people evacuation is free
that people leaving the left bank will not be abandoned on the outskirts of Kharkiv
Such rumors circulate all around communities Russia endangers.
“Locals aren’t giving us [their] phone number
But we know that they charge 5,000 hryvnias for evacuation
That business is flourishing,” Slava says.
Before Maria from the farmer’s market shares her struggles
a woman evacuating from Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi along with her grandma
says that she plans to go to a city in the west of Ukraine after Kharkiv
“I’ll go to Rivne… My kids live there
plans to evacuate a few days later along with his dog
Zhuk [“Bug” in translation from Ukrainian].
Russian shelling injured Oleksandr in the shoulder—he says he couldn’t sit
Two weeks before he conversed with Gwara Media
another Russian attack destroyed his country house in Novoosynove—he’s been living there since his wife died
Oleksandr has recovered from last year’s injury
everything I have been building for 40 years
He survived two Russian strikes: the recent on Oleksandr’s house and the one on Oleksandr’s mother-in-law
a Russian-occupied settlement in Kharkiv region northeast of Kivsharivka
took the dog and walked for 10 kilometers to safety
in one of the dorms for IDPs—receives pensions and works to earn a little extra money
who lives on the outskirts of Kupiansk-Vyzlovyi and also can’t convince her husband to evacuate (“He says he’ll die of boredom there,” she shares
One of the reasons everything burns might be Russian glide bombs
They started using them often last year in the east of Ukraine
played a significant role in the occupation of Avdiivka
in Russia’s attack on the north of the Kharkiv region
and the ground they’ve taken since in Donetsk Oblast
There’s no way for Ukraine’s air defense to shoot them down except for targeting the aircraft from which they are launched with allies-provided weapons
things will get worse on the left bank of Oskil—but she can’t abandon her husband
she shares another reason that keeps him here
They belonged to our parents and my husband’s sister
and the sister and her husband left to live with their daughter in Kharkiv
“It’s good that you’re still coming here,” Oksana says to volunteers
“I always tell my husband—if they stop coming
chats with her neighbors while her husband anxiously paces near their Volga and coos to their cats
says they wouldn’t decide to leave if it weren’t for the fear of being forgotten.
When Ukraine liberated the Kharkiv Oblast in 2022
“I was terribly afraid that they’ll abandon [the left bank] and won’t liberate us
afraid that Russia will torture [this place] to death
cars of the volunteer team go into the waters of Oskil
Volodymyr and Natalia’s car with an attached trailer follows
an Italian volunteer who came to Ukraine to help people affected by Russia’s war
watches their: first the wheels on “Volga,” then the trailer’s wheels.
When they reach the other side of the river
Ludo smiles and lets out—barely noticeable—breath of relief.
Slava Ilchenko still goes over to the left bank to evacuate people
The Oskil crossing the team used in October is now closed for civilians and volunteers
so Slava joinsUkrainian soldiers in their ventures to the left side
it’s the only way to get there—and to get people and abandoned animals—to safety.
Russian troops try to attack the crossing from two flanks
but Ukraine has been repelling them so far
Against the backdrop of Russia gaining more territory in Donetsk Oblast in the last months
they sent one of their best brigades to push the Armed Forces beyond the river
Ukraine will have to use Oskil as a natural line of defense—and counterattacks across the river
as Ukraine’s learned from both the Kharkiv counteroffensive and Kherson liberation
On November 28, Andrii Kanashevich, the head of the military administration of the Kupiansk district, said that the pace of evacuation from Oskil’s left bank had dropped.
“There are no conditions for a full life on the left bank
and it’s impossible to restore them because of the safety considerations
And staying through winter without electricity
Kanashevich said 1830 people—and no children—currently live on the left bank in three communities of Kharkiv Oblast
Denys Klymenko, former reporter and videographer for Gwara Media, contributed to the article.
Cover photo: Oskil River in Kharkiv region, October 2024 / Yana Sliemzina, Gwara Media
Ukraine (AP) — Nine-year-old Artem Panchenko helps his grandmother stoke a smoky fire in a makeshift outdoor kitchen beside their nearly abandoned apartment block
The light is falling fast and they need to eat before the setting sun plunges their home into cold and darkness
They can feel it in their bones as temperatures drop below freezing
And like hundreds of thousands of other Ukrainians
they are facing a season that promises to be brutal
Artem and his grandmother have been living without gas
water or electricity for around three weeks
ever since Russian missile strikes cut off the utilities in their town in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region
For them and the few other residents that remain in the complex in Kivsharivka
bundling up at night and cooking outdoors is the only way to survive
READ MORE: Russian airstrikes sever power, water access across Ukraine
“It’s cold and there are bombings,” Artem said Sunday as he helped his grandmother with the cooking
I’m sleeping in my clothes in our apartment.”
Adding to the foreboding about the coming winter, Russian strikes on Monday and Tuesday in Kyiv, the capital, and several other Ukrainian cities by drones and missiles targeted power plants
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a tweet Tuesday that over the past week Russian attacks have knocked out 30% of his country’s power plants causing “massive blackouts across the country.”
those who haven’t fled from the heavy fighting
regular shelling and months of Russian occupation in eastern Ukraine are desperately trying to figure out how to dig in for the cold months
Viktor Palyanitsa pushes a wheelbarrow full of freshly cut logs along the road toward his house
the remnants of damaged buildings and the site of a 300-year-old wooden church that was leveled as Ukrainian forces fought to liberate the area from Russian occupiers
said he’s gathered enough wood to last the entire winter
he planned to begin sleeping beside a wood-burning stove in a rickety outbuilding and not his home
since all the windows in his house have been blown out by flying shrapnel
You can see the situation we’re living in,” Palyanitsa said
quietly understating the dire outlook for the next several months
Authorities are working to gradually restore electricity to the area in the coming days
and repairs to water and gas infrastructure will come next
a deputy with the Kharkiv regional government
“Only after that will we be able to begin to restore heating,” he said
Authorities were working to provide firewood to residents
but had no timeline for when the utilities would be restored
Palyanitsa was not waiting for government help
He said he didn’t expect heating to be restored anytime soon
but that he feels ready to fend for himself even once winter sets in
because I can find wood and heat the stove,” he said
Authorities in the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the neighboring, hotly contested Donetsk region have urged all remaining residents to evacuate, and warned that gas and water services in many areas will likely not be restored by winter
ordinary Ukrainians are still living in thousands of homes that have been wrecked by Russian strikes
with leaky or damaged roofs and blown-out windows that are unable to provide protection against cold or wet weather
The threat of a winter without heating has even spread to other areas of Ukraine far from the front lines
Russian President Vladimir Putin, angered and embarrassed by a Ukrainian strike on a key bridge to annexed Crimea, has intensified Russia’s bombing campaign
targeting civilian energy infrastructure around Ukraine and leaving many cities and towns without electricity
Sumy in the northeast and Vinnytsia in western Ukraine
a group of men used a chainsaw to bring down a tree near a bus stop
they warned an Associated Press reporter about the Russian land mines still hidden in the surrounding grass
With so much of the area’s towns destroyed and modern comforts all but disappeared
the drive for survival trumps any concerns about the preservation of what was before
homes have become like rudimentary shelters from a medieval age where residents live by candlelight
gather water from wells and bundle up to fend off the cold
said she and her grandson have been sleeping in an abandoned apartment next door since all their windows were blown out by a Russian strike
all the other windows were destroyed,” she said
it’s hard to run between the apartment and where we cook
Makeshift lean-to structures dot the overgrown courtyards of their apartment complex where residents gather to cook over fires
One woman collected scraps of wood from a ground-floor apartment that was caved in by a Russian rocket strike
Another resident joked that his home had become a five-room apartment after one of its exterior walls collapsed
WATCH: U.S. pledges ‘action’ after drone attack on Kyiv
toasted bread and heated a kettle of water over a fire to bring up tea to his disabled mother
“I’m making tea for my mother on the fire but she only drinks a little bit to warm up for a short time.”
Sevrukov’s mother sat under a blanket on a sofa piled with plates of spoiled food
Zoya Sevrukova said she’d been bedridden for seven years
and that she spends most of her time seated
playing solitaire with a worn pack of cards
Sevrukov said he’d asked a friend from Kharkiv
to buy him an electric heater — just in case the power is restored
It’s almost too much to even think about the deprivation that could lie ahead
so we can live through this winter somehow,” he said
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the Russian army attacked the Kivsharivka village in the Kupiansk district with a guided bomb
“Russia damaged an ambulance. A paramedic was injured in the shelling, he refused hospitalization,” said Oleh Syniehubov
In three years of full-scale war with Russia, eight medics died in the Kharkiv region
Russians dropped a high-explosive aerial bomb (FAB-500) on Kivsharivka village
The bomb severely damaged an apartment building and 10 houses
Russia dropped an explosive from a first-person view (FPV) drone between Kupiansk and Kivsharivka
Two women got injured in the attack and received medical help on-site
Russia damaged one house from multiple rocket launchers (MRL) and three houses with artillery attack in Kupiansk city
Four Russian FPV drones damaged a house and two farm buildings in Klynova Novoselivk village
two guided bombs damaged four apartment buildings
On April 14, the Kharkiv Oblast governor also reported that Russia killed four and injured four people in the Kharkiv region.
This was reported by the State Emergency Service (SES) in Kharkiv region via Telegram
"Eight garages and a vehicle burned as a result of the airstrike on Kharkiv region
covering a total fire area of more than 240 square meters
50 garage units were damaged in this residential microdistrict of the frontline town of Kivsharivka
Kupiansk district," stated the report
Emergency workers from the SES and volunteer firefighters from Kivsharivka were deployed to extinguish the fire
Preliminary reports indicate that no casualties were reported
there were 22 fires in Kharkiv region last week due to ongoing hostilities
the Russian army struck the village of Kivsharivka
The shelling killed a woman of 74 years old
81 and 71 and a 74-year-old man were injured
The condition of the victims is assessed as moderate
“The bomb hit near a 5-storey residential building
A neighboring 9-storey building was also damaged,” the statement said
the Russian army hit a non-residential building in the village of Velykyi Burluk
The building was damaged and a fire broke out
a mortar attack damaged the building of a lyceum
a critical infrastructure facility was destroyed by mortar fire
Russian army attacks Kharkiv region with Shahed drones: industrial enterprise burns down
The occupiers attacked Pervomaiskyi in Kharkiv Oblast
Russia plans to move to the East of Kharkiv region – ISW
This includes capturing the rest of Luhansk region and moving westward to the eastern part of Kharkiv and the Northern part of Donetsk regions
Ukraine prepares for the second wave of counteroffensive – BILD. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces a new counterattack phase on the Russian army.
KYIV, Ukraine – Bound for the battlefield, sounding harried and anxious, the Russian soldier placed a hasty phone call – to a Ukrainian military hotline
“They say you can help me surrender voluntarily
explaining that he was soon to be deployed near the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson
Do you promise not to film me while this is happening?”
the hotline operator calmly assured him he’d be given detailed instructions on how to safely lay down his weapon and turn himself in
At a crucial juncture in an extraordinarily bloody war
Ukraine’s military is focused on one task: removing Russian soldiers from the battlefield
But faced with a foe whose ranks are known to be riddled with unwilling fighters
Ukrainian military strategists realized there might be more than one means to that end
aimed at providing invading forces with step-by-step information on how to abandon the ranks
military-operated version in place since mid-September
On Russian-language social media, Ukrainians have spread the word about the program’s website
intended as a portal for the surrender-curious or their loved ones
It has attracted more than 13.3 million visits – 7.6 million of those from Russian territory
Russian soldiers also provide personal data through a chatbot on the encrypted messaging app Telegram – information Ukrainian authorities use to winnow down those who are serious about turning themselves in
Citing security reasons, Ukrainian officials declined to disclose how many surrenders have been brokered via the program. But hotline operators field calls around the clock from Russians who are soon to be mobilized
are in the midst of being deployed or are already on the battlefield
coolly businesslike or floridly emotional – sometimes all of those in a single conversation
this is not fake?” one Russian soldier asked
“It is not fake,” the Ukrainian operator replied
all active-duty service personnel with backgrounds in psychology
is tasked with providing callers with clear
while being alert to signs that the outreach might be a “probe” by Russian intelligence
meant to elicit information about Ukrainian methods and intentions
those dealing directly with would-be surrenderers try to “calm them down,” said Vitaly Matvienko
a junior lieutenant who serves as spokesman for the program
which is run by the department for prisoners of war
I’m listening,” goes a typically low-key operator salutation in an audio sampling of recent calls provided by the Ukrainian military
callers’ voices are distorted to shield their identities
Hotline operators initially worked out of military headquarters in the Ukrainian capital
but were later moved to a secret location because they are now seen as a high-profile potential target
The military refused to make any operators available for interviews but said they are male and female
a range of ages and all able to chat easily in colloquial Russian
both sides are aware that the moment carries enormous risk for all involved
it’s a very dangerous process,” said Matvienko
improve the odds of everyone staying alive
Russians who want to turn themselves in are told to wave a white cloth, remove the magazines from their guns, point the barrels to the ground and eschew body armor and helmets
They are assured that in the event they want to be sent home in a prisoner swap
their paperwork will reflect that they were captured
the turret is to be turned in the opposite direction
If it’s a group surrender – also a fairly common occurrence
with a Russian squad often fearing retribution from commanders but agreeing to act jointly and surreptitiously – the highest-ranking soldier must identify himself
If a surrendering soldier runs out of options for separating himself from his unit
“We can coordinate with special units that will extract you safe and sound,” one operator told a worried caller
Like so much in this conflict, the “I Want to Live” program employs high-tech methods and simple communication tools
Russians facing deployment can communicate with the Ukrainian side using the Telegram chatbot
they’re urged to procure and hide a basic flip phone – not a smartphone – and use that to call the hotline
Ukrainians say they’ve heard from Russian soldiers already on the battlefield who learned of the hotline by word of mouth or from a scrawled-on slip of paper passed from hand to hand
one of Moscow’s greatest advantages is the sheer number of troops it can throw into the fight
Western military analysts say – which is why Ukraine is willing to try novel tactics to reduce those numbers
In addition to the 190,000 Russian soldiers who took part in the initial multipronged invasion that began in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin last year ordered the mobilization of 300,000 more
And another major mobilization is expected as Russia seeks to mount a spring offensive
But despite a more than 2-to-1 Russian advantage in its standing military
Moscow’s faltering performance has been blamed on troop quality
Western military observers consistently cite poor morale
substandard training and shambolic supply practices as key factors in a string of Russian battlefield routs last autumn
“In order to snatch a victory of sorts from the jaws of defeat
Putin must now rely on the overwhelming numbers provided by mass mobilization,” analyst Peter Dickinson wrote in a report last month for the Atlantic Council
“This is a tried and tested Russian tactic
Deploying thousands of untrained soldiers “to fight against battle-hardened and highly motivated Ukrainian troops could result in the kind of carnage that breaks armies,” he wrote
some Russian troops apparently believed they would be welcomed by Ukrainians as liberators
coupled with widespread shows of disdain and defiance from civilians
Last autumn’s mobilization by Putin prompted a huge exodus of fighting-age men from Russia
with hundreds of thousands settling in Turkey
Kazakhstan and other nearby countries to avoid being conscripted
Western analysts say it has become more widely known within Russia that Moscow’s commanders have scant regard for the lives and welfare of their own troops
January and February saw an uptick in Russian-language social media postings about harrowing field conditions and chaotic leadership – accounts widely echoed in months of intercepted calls home from deployed Russian troops
In mid-February, a British military intelligence assessment said Russian forces were suffering what appeared to be the highest casualty rates since the early weeks of the war – many occurring near the hotly contested town of Bakhmut
While Ukraine has suffered heavy attrition as well
Russia lost exceptionally large numbers of troops and armored vehicles in a failed attempt last month to storm the Ukrainian-held eastern town of Vuhledar – an apparently bungled opening volley in a much-vaunted Russian spring offensive
Ukrainian officials hope that such setbacks will serve a dual purpose: inflicting a costly defeat
and prompting Russian soldiers to recognize the sometimes suicidal role they are expected to play in human-wave attacks on fortified Ukrainian positions
which have been a recurring feature of recent fighting
“With their own eyes, they see they are nothing more than cannon fodder,” Matvienko said. “They see one of their comrades being ordered to walk into a minefield to find a path
can galvanize a desperate sense of self-preservation
“They realize this is real and not some war movie,” he said
“And the thought has to occur to them: ‘How do I save myself?’”
used an expletive to describe the prospect of sudden death in battle
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buses began to arrive in Crimea carrying Russian conscripts called up during the mobilization
training is apparently going to consist of a couple of days sleeping on cots
and whatever tips they could pick up in transit
Those troops immediately got a ceremony—a “departure ceremony”—as they were directed to the front lines. There are other reports of similar troops arriving in the Donetsk area
Considering how Russia’s attack on Bakhmut has sometimes consisted of simply sending wave after wave of unsupported infantry up the slope at entrenched positions
these men should do just as well as those with years of experience
over the last two days fighting in Ukraine has gone like this:
Ukraine is expanding bridgeheads at Dvorichna and Kupyansk
Ukraine reportedly has two major moves underway
which is along a major highway that goes to a border crossing into Russia
Fighting there has been described as intense over the last two days
but Ukrainian troops have reportedly entered the western part of the town and found a large cache of that most vital Russian supply: stolen washing machines
That bridgehead is also pushing to the south
where it’s reportedly reached the town of Lyman Pershyi
It’s unclear if they are seeing much pushback from Russia along this route
but the goal is clearly to connect this bridgehead with the one 15 kilometers south at Kupyansk.
That Kupyansk bridgehead as been the scene of some very serious fighting
and brought in reinforcements even as Ukraine was getting set up on the east side of the river and preparing to move
Ukrainian sources in this area are still citing operational security and giving only scant reports of activities in the area
but it’s clear there were a pair of large battles
one in the southeastern area of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (the location of an absolutely enormous rail yard) and another to the east at Petropavlivka
Russia apparently suffered some very major losses of troops in these fights
and this is another area where Russian forces were reportedly rushed to the front in infantry waves without having adequate support from armor or air. That Ukraine now controls these areas is made pretty certain by the fact that both locations have shown up in the morning list of areas shelled by Russia for the last two days
the Kupyansk force is now reported to be moving south
also known as the town that for nearly a week kept saying there were no Russian troops present
Whether Russia got any forces into place before Ukrainian forces arrived isn’t clear
At a pre-war population of 20,000, Kivsharivka is about the same size as Lyman
and it seems to have so far made it through the war with a lot less damage
One other thing is interesting about the Ukrainian advance from Kupyansk: the P07 highway. If Ukraine is also continuing down the P07 to the southeast
there’s pretty much nothing in the way until they get to the area of Kyslivka
and even that’s far enough off the road that it could potentially be bypassed
There are no real indications that Ukraine is about to do a speed run down the P07 … except that this is the same road that Ukraine used on its three-day crossing from Balakliya to Kupyansk
And 50 km down that same highway is Svatove
which is now reportedly Russia’s major mustering point in the region
the forces that have crossed at Dvorichna and Kupyansk could meet up and continue to push south
Or they could each continue to expand their bridgeheads
Or they could mount up and fly down the P07 into Luhansk … and Russia has to be prepared to defend any of these options
Ukraine has continued to expand the liberated area north of Lyman
That includes both pressing up the highway directly east of the Oskil River and widening the liberated area to the north
But the most important thing that’s happened may have been reported in just the last hour—so recently in fact that I’ve just had to remake this map and redo several paragraphs of text
Russia apparently reinforced positions in Lyman and pushed back into Drobysheve with some regular Russian army forces to back the mercenary group that had been holding the northern edge of that town
While Ukraine apparently did eventually move Russian forces out of Novoselivka (locals there report that Ukraine has set up checkpoints and is checking IDs in the town)
Russia actually seemed to control more of Lyman than it did over the weekend
In spite of Ukrainian forces fighting between Nove and Zelena Dolyna and the capture of major rail lines in the area
Russia still had one good highway running from Kreminna straight into Lyman on the east
That well-paved road has allowed them to keep Lyman supplied
I had actually spent a good chunk of the morning looking at the territory between Zelena Dolyna and Torske
writing several paragraphs about what Ukraine would need to do to press down to this point from the north and west
and actually encircle the Russian forces
And then Ukraine built a new pair of pontoon bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River at Bilohorivka
and now has scouting forces near both Torske and Kreminna
all under what appears to have been perfect operational security
I’ve never been happier to get out the editing pen and start slicing
If reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources are correct
we’re not going to be waiting days or weeks for that last road into Lyman to be cut
That road is cut right now. Russian forces have reportedly abandoned the forested area east of Torske and Yampil.
but considering the way Mud Season has moved into the area and reports that Ukrainian forces have managed to begin attacks on Stavky
there seems to be very little opportunity for Russian forces in this area to escape. Unless Russia can get to the area with enough strength to relieve pressure on that eastern road
Yampil, and Drobysheve are effectively encircled
assuming that these reports of a significant Ukrainian force crossing the river and reaching Torske are correct
there are reports that Ukraine has liberated Nyzhche
and that Ukrainian troops have entered the southern half of Borova
Russia has reportedly been preparing a new defensive line running roughly along that red line from Borova to Serhiivka
any preparations made there could be worthless
Some preliminary—and totally believable—results of the “referenda” in occupied territories
It’s expected that Vladimir Putin will give the final results when he speaks on Sept. 30
but 🇷🇺-installed officials have announced the preliminary results of their “referendums” in occupied Ukraine:- 97% in Kherson region - 98% in Zaporizhzhia - 98% in “Donetsk People’s Republic”- 98% in “Luhansk People’s Republic”
Russian mobilization meme pic.twitter.com/SVECr3ZLdm
We have an even shot at keeping our House majority, but only if enough Democrats turn out to vote. Click to start writing Postcards to Democratic-leaning voters in targeted House districts today.
I really appreciate how Ukraine seems to have these signs in even the smallest towns for confirmation
Also notice how bad the mud is getting with days of rain
This is why those paved roadways are becoming more and more important
and why capturing towns is likely to become more difficult in coming weeks
Ridkodub 🇺🇦1/1062/ pic.twitter.com/CYIVjE1H2O
Ukraine seems to have the overall initiative right now
but that might change with more rain and a bunch of RU cannon fodder
It's possible we might hit a stand still if we get a lot of rain and RU conscripts manning the defensive lines
👌 pic.twitter.com/aJoPwRjY5v
Have both video and images geolocated to Shandryholove
More interesting are reports on Russian Telegram that Dibrova
Here’s one of those puzzles that makes me wish someone had really used a larger list when selecting names for Ukrainian towns
both Russian and Ukrainian sources are reporting that the Ukrainian forces who crossed the Siverskyi Donets River have liberated Dibrova
Most analysts seem to be assuming that the Dibrova in question is the one to the right
that would go a long way to bolstering the idea that the new forces crossing the pontoon bridge have moved in force against the area east of Yampil
threatening Russian access to Lyman (I’ve colored this map along that assumption)
have had this town under Ukrainian control for over a week
But at least one of the most reliable analysts has said he believes this is the Dibrova that was in the original messages
and that everyone has jumped the gun looking to confirm the activity east of Yampil
I’ve tried comparing the messages to how these were described by Telegram
and military bloggers when Russia was coming the other way back in April
but found both of them described as “Dibrova
There might be good confirmation of Ukrainian activity along this critical highway
The source is Russian war reporter WarGonzo
and remember the sources are less-than-reliable usually
this would be a major collapse of Russian positions north of Lyman
That entire Ukrainian salient didn’t exist two days ago.
There will be things to talk about in the morning.
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