Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker Some schools in rural Russia are in worse condition than those in occupied eastern Ukraine an official in the republic of Tatarstan said in an interview published Wednesday “I wanted to cry after touring all the schools [in the Verkhneuslonsky district]. In some villages, it seemed that schools were in better shape in Lysychansk,” Yevgeny Varakin, a district head in Tatarstan, told the regional news website Business Online Varakin previously oversaw the reconstruction of the Ukrainian cities of Lysychansk and Rubizhne after Russian troops seized them serving at the time as Tatarstan’s deputy prime minister Tatarstan allocated at least 1 billion rubles ($11.6 million) as of 2024 to repair schools according to the Govorit NeMoskva Telegram news channel Varakin also criticized poor road conditions a lack of small business development and unprofitable public transportation in his district, Verkhneuslonsky “It’s as if we’re the kind of district where people come for a barbecue leave trash everywhere and then go home,” he said The Verkhneuslonsky district is home to the high-tech town of Innopolis sometimes referred to as “Russia’s Silicon Valley.” along with the district’s proximity to the regional capital of Kazan has fueled economic inequality and brain drain as average monthly wages in the district are nearly 30% lower when Innopolis is excluded from calculations Business Online lists Varakin as Tatarstan’s most openly pro-war public figure Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent." These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help please support us monthly starting from just $2 and every contribution makes a significant impact independent journalism in the face of repression This was reported on Telegram by Chief of the Luhansk Regional State Administration, Artem Lysohor, seen by Ukrinform. “At a time when relocated educational institutions in Lysychansk community are achieving top results in the national multi-subject test and graduates have a good chance of entering the best universities in the country, children in the Russian-occupied city are offered a different fate. They are being urged, after finishing school and reaching adulthood, to sign a contract with the Russian army and go to defend the interests of the Kremlin,” Lysohor informed. He noted that closer to the end of the school year, propaganda will be transformed into coercion. “Young people from the so-called ‘LPR’ are not needed by the occupiers,” added the regional chief. As previously reported by Ukrinform, in Melitopol, the occupying authorities have begun implementing the Kremlin's program for the militarization of Ukrainian children titled “Serving the Fatherland.” Online media entity; Media identifier - R40-01421. © 2015-2025 Ukrinform. All rights reserved. SupportEN Вікторія КоломієцьЖурналістка Perhaps you start to appreciate something when you lose it.. It seems like it was some kind of paradise," says serviceman Ruslan Kladkov he donned a military uniform and took up arms the Ukrainian Armed Forces could not hold it The occupation—the fourth for Lysychansk in the last century—continues to this day he loved the wild beaches on the Siverskyi Donets River He would go there with friends to swim and fish we would launch matches down those streams The year 1710 is considered the founding year of the city on the right bank of the Siverskyi Donets River It was then that Zaporozhian Cossacks settled in a place called Lysycha Balka or Lysychyi Bayrak They controlled the crossing of the Siverskyi Donets on the Kalmius Sakma—one of the three main routes from Crimea to the Muscovite state Modern Lysychansk took shape in the mid-1960s. The 2001 census counted nearly 115,000 residents in the city The city does not stand out for its architecture from the Soviet industrialization period most of the five-story buildings are ordinary "Khrushchevka" apartment buildings there was a "Belgian heritage" in Lysychansk built a hospital made of red brick and an entire residential district there in the 19th century the local authorities did not pay attention to preserving the monuments so Ruslan's last memories of this architecture are of it being neglected although the second-largest city in Luhansk Oblast They especially loved winter because their parents would take them sledding on the hill Ruslan also remembers the Central Park—although small it was a beautiful and cozy place where he and his family often spent time He also remembers the fountain on the central square where young people would gather—sometimes hundreds at a time there was a young culture park for skaters and BMX riders It was built by local entrepreneurs together with community organizations they "put spokes in their wheels." Why The city was run by pro-Russian forces who only cared about their own interests Lysychansk was called the "Cradle of Donbas" due to the large number of industrial facilities Among the largest were the Lysychansk Oil Refinery—the second most powerful in Ukraine—and Lysychanskvuhillia—a large coal association with many mines Equally significant was the Lysychansk Soda Plant the plant was considered the second most powerful in Europe Lysychansk residents also remember the large glass factory which produced not only glass but also crystal products There was also a liquid gas plant—producing argon Despite the importance of such an industrial center for Ukraine Under the rule of the Party of Regions in Lysychansk enterprises were sold to Russia allegedly for investment but no funds were invested in their development locals shifted their focus to creating their own small businesses businesses in Lysychansk were actively thriving before the start of the war in 2014 "There wasn't even a doghouse to rent anywhere – as the saying goes Lysychansk residents traveled to different cities in Ukraine and even to Moscow—they took goods there and brought goods home.. People saw that businesses could be profitable." Ruslan and his wife also had their own business—several cafes and a recreation camp where they rented out barbecue spots Lysychansk is a Ukrainian city that is perhaps the most familiar with occupation The city suffered significant losses—both human and architectural Ruslan Kladkov during the pseudo-referendum A pseudo-referendum for secession from Ukraine was held in the city The Ukrainian flag flew over the city again after 102 days and the collaborators immediately started looking for me," said Ruslan Kladkov where he actively participated in the protests on the Maidan Russia's new attempt to capture the industrial town came with the full-scale invasion The couple took their children abroad to their grandmother was already a serving military member—she worked in the military recruitment center They were able to see each other again only after half a year 2022Kladkov Ruslan / FacebookThere were no actual battles for Lysychansk itself because the city is located on dominant heights surrounded by hills as part of the 111th Territorial Defense Brigade participated in the defense around Lysychansk—defending Chervonopopivka "There were battles for the Lysychansk Oil Refinery Those were essentially the battles for Lysychansk It is located on the outskirts—about 15 km from the city It will be very difficult to drive the Russians out from there because there are very good bomb shelters." Ruslan saw the first destruction of the city with his own eyes He remembers how artillery fire destroyed the children's cultural center "Budynok Tekhnika." There was also a humanitarian aid center in the basement there were no Ukrainian military personnel there who could have been targeted by the Russians to justify their attack Ruslan managed to get into his apartment when he was helping with the evacuation of the wounded in Lysychansk He clearly remembers taking the children's medical records and a flag he had sewn for Euro 2012 He didn't lock it so that the door wouldn't be broken down Ruslan found out that high-ranking occupiers had settled in one of his apartments an alcoholic neighbor lived there initially and later the apartment was either destroyed or looted (because Ruslan saw footage where there were no windows left) The Armed Forces of Ukraine withdrew from Lysychansk on July 3 2022—to preserve the lives of the personnel The then-head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration noted that the military managed to leave the city without losses and take up more fortified positions Since there were no battles in the city itself Lysychansk suffered the least damage compared to Sievierodonetsk and Rubizhne The detached housing neighborhood and the central part of the city suffer the most In addition to the communal infrastructure, part of the multi-story buildings and private houses, as well as a police station, were destroyed in the city Ruslan is reminded of his native Lysychansk by the keys to his apartment and a pebble—a piece of marble that once adorned the central fountain He keeps these mementos and always carries them with him Ruslan Kladkov continues to serve in the military he deals with legal work—checking the compliance of orders and decrees with legislation and consulting military personnel on various issues his wife is responsible for the accounting but they see their children only during vacations Ruslan Kladkov with his wife Karyna and children on vacation 2024Kladkov Ruslan / Facebook“We had a small garden at the recreation camp We wanted the children to see how vegetables grow and how to harvest them ‘What happened to our garden?’ He misses home very much.” Ruslan and Karyna want to return to their hometown of Lysychansk after the victory but are concerned about safety—even if the city is liberated there will still be many unexploded shells around This piece is part of the "Destroyed but Unconquered" project in which we tell the stories of cities completely destroyed and occupied by Russia during the full-scale invasion Ukraine (AP) — Russia was mounting an all-out assault on the last Ukrainian stronghold in the eastern Luhansk region “pouring fire” on the city of Lysychansk from the ground and air as Western leaders met to discuss ways of bolstering support for Kyiv WATCH: Russia targets Ukraine’s capital with series of missile attacks Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai said Russian forces were pummeling Lysychansk after capturing the neighboring city of Sievierodonetsk in recent days It’s part of a stepped-up Russian offensive to wrest the broader Donbas region from Ukrainian government control in what Western experts say has become the new main goal of President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine “They’re pouring fire on the city both from the air and from the ground the enemy army has concentrated all its forces on capturing (our) last stronghold in the Luhansk region: Lysychansk,” Haidai told The Associated Press The Russians were trying to blockade the city from the south “destroying everything that their artillery and multiple rocket launchers can reach,” Haidai said Over the past week, the Russian army has captured several villages and towns southeast of Lysychansk now a staging area for airstrikes and shelling attacks The office of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at least six civilians were killed and 31 others injured as part of intense Russian shelling against various cities over the past 24 hours — including Kyiv and major cities in the country’s south and east It said Russian rocket attacks killed two and injured five overnight in Kharkiv Russian forces also continued to target the key southern port of Odesa with a missile attack destroying residential buildings and injuring six The southern city of Mykolaiv likewise saw Russian shells hit civilian infrastructure at least five high-rise buildings in the city and the last road bridge were damaged over the past day A crucial highway linking the city to government-held territory further south was rendered impassable because of shelling — but it hasn’t been captured Such shelling is also making the evacuation of civilians increasingly difficult The city had a pre-war population of around 100,000 Analysts say that Lysychansk’s location high on the banks of the Siverskiy Donets river as well as its large area dotted with hills give a major advantage to the city’s Ukrainian defenders “It’s a very hard nut to crack The Russians could spend many months and much effort storming Lysychansk,” military analyst Oleh Zhdanov told the AP The Siverskiy Donets river encloses Lysychansk from the north and east while the Ukrainian army continues to hold territory west of the city which it uses to supply arms and humanitarian aid Moscow has now moved to attempt to block Lysychansk from the south in the government-controlled city of Sloviansk local authorities accused Russian forces of firing a cluster bomb saying it hit a residential neighborhood after dawn on Monday Authorities say the number of dead and injured are still to be confirmed; the AP saw one fatality A man’s body lay hunched over a car door frame his blood pooling onto the ground from scattered chest and head wounds The shockwave from the explosion blew out most of the windows in the surrounding apartment blocks and the cars parked below “In the last week we have seen an increase in the use of these cluster bombs” said Sloviansk Mayor Vadim Lyakh who was helping coordinate the emergency response This was a residential area where there were only civilians.” Local resident Valentina Vitkovska cried as she spoke about the impact of the explosion We are the only people left living in this part of the building I can’t even call to tell others what had happened to us” she said © 1996 - 2025 NewsHour Productions LLC PBS is a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organization Subscribe to Here's the Deal with Lisa Desjardins '+n.escapeExpression("function"==typeof(o=null!=(o=r(e,"eyebrowText")||(null!=l?r(l,"eyebrowText"):l))?o:n.hooks.helperMissing)?o.call(null!=l?l:n.nullContext||{},{name:"eyebrowText",hash:{},data:t,loc:{start:{line:28,column:63},end:{line:28,column:78}}}):o)+" \n '+(null!=(o=c(e,"if").call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2PreText"):l,{name:"if",hash:{},fn:n.program(32,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:63,column:20},end:{line:63,column:61}}}))?o:"")+"\n"+(null!=(o=(c(e,"ifAll")||l&&c(l,"ifAll")||n.hooks.helperMissing).call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Text"):l,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Link"):l,{name:"ifAll",hash:{},fn:n.program(34,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:64,column:20},end:{line:70,column:30}}}))?o:"")+" Region’s governor says loss was painful and he expects Sloviansk and Bakhmut now to face heavy attack Vladimir Putin has declared victory in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk and told Russian troops to rest and “increase their combat capabilities” a day after Ukrainian forces withdrew from their last remaining stronghold in the province Ukraine’s military command confirmed on Sunday evening that its troops had been forced to pull back from the city of Lysychansk in Luhansk and the regional governor has warned that Russian forces are trying to seize the entire Donetsk region makes up the industrial heartland of Donbas told Putin that “the operation” in Luhansk was complete The Russian president said the military units “that took part in active hostilities and achieved success Since abandoning an assault on the capital, Kyiv, Russia has concentrated its military operation on Donbas, where Moscow-backed separatist proxies have been fighting Ukraine since 2014 The Russians control about half of Donetsk said he expected the Donetsk cities of Sloviansk and Bakhmut to come under heavy attack as Russia attempts to take full control of Donbas “The loss of the Luhansk region is painful because it is the territory of Ukraine,” Haidai told Reuters This is the homeland where I was born and I am also the head of the region.” 1:19Zelenskiy vows Ukrainian troops will retake Lysychansk – videoThe governor said that while Ukrainian forces’ withdrawal from Lysychansk “hurts a lot … it’s not losing the war” He said the retreat from Lysychansk had been “centralised” and orderly and had been carried out to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers who were in danger of being surrounded “[Russian forces] will not transfer 100% of their troops to some front because they need to hold the line If they leave their positions then ours can carry out some kind of counteroffensive,” he said for them goal number one is the Donetsk region Sloviansk and Bakhmut will come under attack – Bakhmut has already started being shelled very hard.” Sloviansk and nearby Kramatorsk lie south-west of Lysychansk and are the main urban areas holding out against Russian forces in Donetsk Haidai said the weeks-long battle for Lysychansk had drawn in Russian troops that could have been fighting on other fronts and had given Ukraine’s forces time to build fortifications in the Donetsk region to make it “harder for the Russians there” He added: “The [Russian] tactics will be the same They will shoot at everything with their artillery but it will be difficult for them to move forward.” Haidai reiterated calls for Ukraine’s western allies to provide more arms saying they had “understood too late” what was happening He said the country’s armed forces would launch a counteroffensive when they had sufficient long-range weapons “They just shoot our positions around the clock from a distance,” he said of the Russians An intelligence briefing on Monday from the UK’s Ministry of Defence said Russian forces would “almost certainly” switch to trying to capture Donetsk The briefing said the conflict in Donbas had been “grinding and attritional” and this was unlikely to change in the coming weeks The general staff of the Ukrainian military said Russian forces were focusing their efforts on pushing toward the line of Siversk acknowledged the loss of Lysychansk on Sunday night and said the area would be retaken “If the command of our army withdraws people from certain points of the front where the enemy has the greatest fire superiority – in particular this applies to Lysychansk – it means only one thing: we will return thanks to our tactics thanks to the increase in the supply of modern weapons.” On Monday, the Ukrainian prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, told an international conference that rebuilding his war-ravaged country would cost around $750bn (£620bn) Speaking at the opening of the Ukraine recovery conference in Switzerland Shmyhal said the confiscated assets of Russia and Russian oligarchs should be used to help Ukraine put itself back together “The Russian authorities unleashed this bloody war and they should be held accountable for it,” he said Zelenskiy said the reconstruction was not the “local task of a single nation” but rather “a common task of the whole democratic world” held under tight security in the southern Swiss city of Lugano and had originally been slated to discuss reforms in Ukraine before being repurposed to focus on reconstruction the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report Moscow launches massive artillery bombardments and airstrikes on eastern city Russian forces are trying to cut off the strategic twin city of Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine, having reduced Sievierodonetsk to rubble. Lysychansk is set to become the next main focus of fighting, as Moscow has launched massive artillery bombardments and airstrikes on areas far from the heart of the eastern battles. Read moreAccording to Russia’s Interfax news agency, Russian troops entered Lysychansk, the last city held by Kyiv in Luhansk province, on Saturday after Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from Sievierodonetsk which along with Donetsk makes up the eastern Donbas region marking another strategic breakthrough for the Russian president “The people’s militia of the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Russian army have entered the city of Lysychansk,” Andrei Marochko a representative for pro-Russian separatists “Street fighting is currently taking place,” he added The claim could not be independently verified and there was no immediate comment from the Ukrainian side said on Facebook that Russian and separatist fighters were trying to blockade Lysychansk from the south Haidai said the Azot chemical plant in Sievierodonetsk and the villages of Synetsky and Pavlograd, and others, were shelled, but made no mention of casualties. Vitaly Kiselev, an interior ministry official of the self-proclaimed republic in Luhansk, which is recognised only by Russia, told the Tass news agency it would take another week and a half to secure full control of Lysychansk. Read moreAbout 95% of Luhansk is already under the control of Russian troops while about half of Donetsk is also occupied by Moscow’s forces 20 rockets “fired from the territory of Belarus and from the air” targeted the village of Desna in the northern Chernihiv region The command added that infrastructures were hit Although it is officially not involved in the conflict Belarus has provided logistic support to Moscow since the beginning of the invasion “Today’s strike is directly linked to Kremlin efforts to pull Belarus as a co-belligerent into the war in Ukraine,” the Ukrainian intelligence service said The attack came before a planned meeting between Putin and his Belarussian counterpart and close ally four Russian rockets hit a “military object” in Yaroviv He did not give further details of the target Yaroviv has a sizable military base used for training fighters including foreigners who have volunteered to fight for Ukraine Although far from the frontlines, the Lviv region, described as the soul of Ukraine and a symbol of Ukrainian nationalism has come under fire at various points in the war During what has been described as the most difficult moment for Ukrainian troops since the beginning of the invasion Kyiv pressed for more weapons again on Friday told his US counterpart in a phone call that Kyiv needed “fire parity” with Moscow to stabilise the situation in Luhansk Associated Press And Reuters contributed to this report You don't have permission to access the page you requested What is this page?The website you are visiting is protected.For security reasons this page cannot be displayed Donate Conflict and its Russian ownership have made the upgrades and repairs needed to reopen the facility impossible The frontline came to the site during the battle for Lysychansk the last city in Luhansk to fall under occupation in 2022 The battle for Lysychansk ended with the occupation of the city and the refinery. Military forces reportedly occupied the north eastern and south western sections of the refinery by the 30th of June and satellite data details extensive facility-wide damage during the fighting Smoke plumes were visible rising from various workshops and pipelines surrounding its storage tanks while large fires engulfed the same settling ponds that had burned earlier in the year the attacks have also led to large volumes of waste and debris some of which may contain hazardous materials such as asbestos remedial measures at the site will generate significant waste streams that will need to be appropriately managed to prevent further harm Risks and Impacts from Attacks on Fossil Fuel Facilities in Ukraine | PAX Environmental assessment and recovery priorities for Eastern Ukraine | OSCE Return to the country map here © 2025 Conflict and Environment Observatory | Charity No: 1174115 | Design by Open & Honest your new go-to podcast to spice up your weekday mornings with relevant news and behind-the-scenes from Brussels and beyond From the economy to the climate and the EU's role in world affairs this talk show sheds light on European affairs and the issues that impact on our daily lives as Europeans Tune in to understand the ins and outs of European politics Dare to imagine the future with business and tech visionaries Deep dive conversations with business leaders Euronews Tech Talks goes beyond discussions to explore the impact of new technologies on our lives the podcast provides valuable insights into the intersection of technology and society Europe's water is under increasing pressure floods are taking their toll on our drinking water Join us on a journey around Europe to see why protecting ecosystems matters and to discover some of the best water solutions an animated explainer series and live debate - find out why Water Matters We give you the latest climate facts from the world’s leading source analyse the trends and explain how our planet is changing We meet the experts on the front line of climate change who explore new strategies to mitigate and adapt Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged on Sunday that Kyiv's forces had withdrawn from the strategic city in the eastern Donbas region after a grinding Russian assault But he vowed to regain control over the area with the help of long-range Western weapons Moscow said the capture of Lysychansk meant it had "liberated" the Luhansk region less than a week after taking neighbouring Sievierdonetsk Lysychansk was the last Ukrainian stronghold in Luhansk Its capture will provide Moscow's troops with a stronger base from which to press their advance in the Donbas — the old industrial region of mines and factories that Vladimir Putin is bent on capturing The battlefield focus now shifts to the neighbouring Donetsk region where Kyiv still controls swathes of territory but was adamant Ukraine would never "give anything up" thanks to the increase in the supply of modern weapons," he said The Ukrainian president said Russia was concentrating its firepower on the Donbas front but Ukraine would hit back with long-range weapons such as the US-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers "The fact that we protect the lives of our soldiers and people must be protected above all else," he said Zelenskyy insisted that Kyiv's forces were "making progress" elsewhere in the areas around Kharkiv in the north-east "The day will come when we will say the same thing about the Donbas" Since abandoning its assault on the capital Kyiv Russia has focused its military operation on the industrial Donbas heartland that comprises the Luhansk and Donetsk regions where Moscow-backed separatist proxies have been fighting Ukraine since 2014 Moscow said it will give Luhansk to the self-proclaimed Russian-backed Luhansk People's Republic whose independence it recognised on the eve of the war But Zelenskyy poured scorn on Moscow's achievements For the sake of insane propagandists to be able to show a Russian or Soviet flag on the ruins somewhere in their broadcasts There is simply no other answer," he said in his Sunday night address The Russian army continued to pound eastern Ukraine on Monday advancing its plan to conquer the entire Donbass region after taking Lysychansk a town of about 100,000 inhabitants before the war Russian strikes killed six people on Sunday The Ukrainian authorities are now calling on residents to leave the region while the front line is only a few kilometres away Ukrainian forces appear to be trying to defend a line between Siversk — about 20 kilometres west of Lysychansk — and Bakhmut "The enemy has intensified its shelling on our positions in the direction of Bakhmut," the Ukrainian army headquarters confirmed in its first update on Monday morning Monday sees the start of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano which President Zelenskyy said can "become an essential step for Ukraine's reconstruction" The conference will be jointly hosted by Switzerland and Ukraine from 4-5 July and is billed as an opportunity for Ukraine to work with international partners on a plan to recover and rebuilt the country Russia claimed Sunday to have overwhelmed the last major city in Ukraine's Luhansk province as it continues its assault on the battered nation's eastern Donbas region The Russian military and the militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic LPR "have established full control over Lysychansk and a number of nearby settlements," the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine's General Staff of the military reported that its forces had withdrawn from Lysychansk but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the fight for the city was not over Lysychansk's misery comes one week after the sister city of Sievierodonetsk came under complete Russian control following a brutal Completing the invasion of Luhansk would allow Russia to turn its attention to Donetsk the other province in the industrial Donbas region Russia already controls more than half of the Donetsk as well Germany’s top energy official urged property owners to have gas boilers and radiators adjusted to maximize  efficiency Federal Network Agency President Klaus Mueller says families should decide “whether every room needs to be set at its usual temperature” this winter ►Fires were burning across the Donetsk city of Sloviansk after Russian shelling killed at least six people and wounded several more USA TODAY ON TELEGRAM: Join our Russia-Ukraine war channel to receive updates straight to your phone. Russian-backed officials who say they will hold a referendum on Kherson province joining the Russian Federation by autumn are likely prioritizing a "pseudo-constitutional vote" to legitimize its control of the region the British Defense Ministry said in an assessment of the war released Sunday Kherson is in southern Ukraine just above Crimea which Russia invaded and illegally annexed in 2014 "Finding a constitutional solution for the occupation is likely a priority policy objective for Russia," the assessment said "It will highly likely be prepared to rig voting to achieve an acceptable result." Two Russian airplanes departed Bulgaria on Sunday with scores of Russian diplomatic staff and their families amid a mass expulsion that has sent tensions soaring between the historically close nations told journalists at the airport in Bulgaria’s capital Sofia before the flights left that he was among the 70 Russian diplomatic staff declared “persona non grata” last week and ordered to leave the country by the end of Sunday Bulgaria’s expulsion decision was announced by acting Prime Minister Kiril Petkov who took a strong stance against Russia after it invaded Ukraine on Feb who lost a no-confidence vote on June 22 has claimed Moscow used “hybrid war” tactics to bring down his government Petkov has said that Russia will retain 43 of its employees after the expulsion and noted that Bulgaria has just 12 diplomatic staff in Moscow Both Russian and Ukrainian forces claim to be in control of Lysychansk the last disputed major city in the Luhansk region Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov published a video which purportedly shows Chechen soldiers in the city one of their commanders declares the city is under full control and a clean-up operation is underway Kyiv rejected the claims and said that heavy fighting is still ongoing on the fringes of the city A spokesman for the Ukrainian National Guard denied Lysychansk has been encircled claiming it remains under the control of Ukraine Ukrainian fighters have spent weeks trying to defend the city and to keep it from falling to Russia as neighboring Sievierodonetsk did a week ago the occupiers opened fire from all available kinds of weapons,” Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai said Saturday on the Telegram messaging app A river separates Lysychansk from Sievierodonetsk said during an online interview late Saturday that Russian forces had managed for the first time to cross the river from the north He said they had not reached the center of the city but control over Lysychansk would be decided by Monday The country's armed forces are under pressure but still fighting back They shared footage of what they said was an explosion at a Russian army warehouse in the east of the country The exact location and date were not specified Moscow meanwhile said more Russian missiles have been fired in the north and south The Defence Ministry claims to have used high-precision weapons to destroy five command posts in the Donbas and Mykolayev regions It also said three ammunition depots were hit in the vicinity of Zaporizhzhia along with a Ukrainian weapons base in Kharkiv The incidents took place after an apartment block was hit in Odesa killing at least 21 people and injuring dozens - an act the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky has called 'deliberate' - a claim the Kremlin denies At least eight Ukrainian civilians were killed and 21 wounded in a Russian bombardment on Monday while collecting water in the eastern city of Lysychansk and five of them remained in Lysychansk after receiving medical treatment," Luhansk governor Sergiy Haidai stated on Telegram while another one born in 2008 was among the wounded Claims that the Uragan-type rockets used in the attack contained cluster munition could not be independently confirmed Russian troops have been engaged in renewed fighting on Monday to capture Lysychansk the last major city still held by Ukrainian troops in eastern Luhansk province It comes after Moscow-backed separatists said they were advancing on multiple fronts the scene of some of the bloodiest fighting since the beginning of the invasion in early February On Monday morning the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said Russian forces were using artillery to try to cut off Lysychansk from the south Russian assault aircraft struck near the city Local authorities have asked the residents to evacuate the city if possible said an elderly woman resident who was among dozens of evacuees who arrived in the Ukrainian-held town of Pokrovsk by bus from frontline areas please bury me behind the house," she added The strike on a line for water in Lysychansk was the latest in a string of missile attacks hitting civilian targets across Ukraine in what is seen as an escalation of the Kremlin's aggression in recent days Russian troops struck a shopping centre in Kremenchuk in the Poltava region with at least two missiles on Monday afternoon with over a thousand people inside according to the information available on Monday evening The attack was reminiscent of earlier strikes against civilian targets since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February such as the air bombardment of the Drama Theatre in the eastern port city of Mariupol in March killing an estimated 600 of the people sheltering there Odesa regional administration spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk said a missile strike in the Odesa region had destroyed residential buildings and caused a fire The northeastern city of Kharkiv was also hit by a rocket attack which killed four people and wounded 19 according to the regional governor killing at least one civilian and injuring several after missiles struck the capital's residential area In reaction to the bombardment over the weekend President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during the Sunday evening address that Ukraine needs a modern air defence system to deter Russian missiles US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken condemned the missile attack on the Kremenchuk shopping centre saying that "the world was horrified" by the strike on a civilian target were also condemned by US President Joe Biden as "barbarism" Washington is reportedly ready to announce it is providing an advanced surface-to-air missile system to Ukraine Moscow’s troops move on to city neighbouring Sievierodonetsk after capturing all but chemical plant there Sievierodonetsk and its neighbouring city continue to be battered by intense Russian shelling as Moscow edges closer to seizing the last pocket of resistance in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region said on Wednesday that Russian forces were moving towards Lysychansk “Lysychansk is constantly suffering from enemy fire … Massive shelling significantly destroyed infrastructure and housing,” Haidai said in a post on Telegram Sievierodonetsk is also shelled “every day” Ukrainian officials have said that the coming days will be decisive in Russia’s efforts to take Sievierodonetsk as fears in Kyiv grow that Russian advances could envelop the entire region Russia is now believed to control all of Sievierodonetsk with the exception of the Azot chemical plant where about 500 Ukrainian citizens and an unknown number of Ukrainian troops are hiding said on Tuesday evening that Russian forces could soon cut off Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from Ukrainian-held territory “The threat of a tactical Russian victory is there but they haven’t done it yet,” he said in an online video Russia has been aiming to capture Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk for months bombing much of the area’s civilian infrastructure in the process Control of the two cities would give Moscow command of the entire Luhansk region and allow its forces to focus on the neighbouring Donetsk region Luhansk and Donetsk provinces combined are known as the Donbas During his nightly video address on Tuesday Zelenskiy admitted that the military situation in Luhansk was very difficult as Russia stepped up an effort to drive Ukrainian troops from key areas The occupiers are pressing strongly,” he said Britain’s defence ministry said that Russia was “highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large number of reserve units to the Donbas” in a push to make further gains in the region Britain further said that pro-Russian separatists were experiencing “extraordinary attrition” in the Donbas said that at least 15 civilians were killed in the Kharkiv region as a result of Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure which was returning to normal life after Ukraine pushed back Russian forces experienced some of the worst Russian shelling to date in the last week as worries grow in Kyiv that Russia is mounting another attack on the city Ukrainian military on Wednesday provided more detail about Monday’s attack on Snake Island saying it had destroyed a Russian air defence system radar installation and vehicles on the strategically important Russian-controlled Black Sea island Russia’s defence ministry said it prevented the Ukrainian attack which Moscow claimed was meant to land Ukrainian soldiers on the island “The unsuccessful fire attack forced the enemy to abandon the landing on Snake Island,” the Russian military said in a statement Satellite images provided by US-based Maxar Technologies showed an overview of Snake Island on Tuesday with damage visible to the tower on the southern end of the island and burned vegetation in several places Meanwhile, Ukraine was accused on Wednesday of using two drones to hit a major Russian oil refinery in the Rostov region “As a result of terrorist actions from the western border of the Rostov region two unmanned aerial vehicles struck at the technological facilities of Novoshakhtinsk,” representatives of the plant said in a statement Social media footage on Wednesday morning showed a drone flying towards the refinery located just five miles from the border with Ukraine Pro-Russian separatists also accused “Ukrainian saboteurs” of staging a “failed assassination” on the Moscow-appointed head of a town outside Kherson said that the head of the town of Chernobaevka was lightly injured as a result of a car bomb attack The extent of partisan warfare in Kherson is difficult to measure, with little information trickling out of the occupied region but several attacks have recently been reported in Kherson on Russian soldiers as well as Ukrainian officials who switched sides to collaborate with the Russians Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Russian military to conduct an operational pause Putin met with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on July 4 to discuss recent Russian gains in Luhansk Oblast and presented Colonel General Alexander Lapin and Major General Esedulla Abachev with the “Hero of Russia” award for their leadership during the Lysychansk operation.[1] Putin and Shoigu presented the capture of Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast as a major victory for Russian forces in Ukraine Putin also stated that the Russian units that participated in the battle for Lysychansk should rest to increase their combat capabilities.[2] Putin‘s public comment was likely meant to signal his concern for the welfare of his troops in the face of periodic complaints in Russia about the treatment of Russian soldiers His comment was also likely accurate—Russian troops that fought through Severodonetsk and Lysychansk very likely do need a significant period in which to rest and refit before resuming large-scale offensive operations that the Russian military will accept the risks of a long enough operational pause to allow these likely exhausted forces to regain their strength Former Russian military commander Igor Girkin an ardent Russian nationalist who commanded militants during the 2014 war in Donbas posted a scathing critique of the Kremlin’s handling of the war on his Telegram channel and questioned the significance of the seizure of Lysychansk He suggested that Russian forces had paid too high a price for a limited gain In a series of Telegram posts published prior to Putin’s meeting with Shoigu on July 4 Girkin complained that Russian forces have failed to meet the announced goals of the “second stage of the special operation” (the operations in eastern Ukraine following Russia’s retreat from Kyiv) to his nearly 400,000 subscribers.[3] Girkin noted that the Ukrainian defense of Lysychansk was deliberately designed to inflict maximum damage on Russian troops and burn through Russian manpower and equipment He strongly suggested that accepting battle on the Ukrainians‘ terms was a significant misstep by the Russian leadership.[4] Girkin stated (before Putin’s remarks were made public) that Russian troops need time to rest and replenish in order to recover their offensive potential and noted that the lack of individual soldier replacements and unit rotations is severely degrading morale that taking time to reconstitute offensive capability would allow Ukrainian troops to seize the initiative and further threaten Russian gains.[5] Girkin additionally claimed that Russian forces have limited prospects of advancing elsewhere in Ukraine due to Ukrainian personnel and equipment superiority.[6] Girkin’s critique is a noteworthy example of the way Russian milbloggers and military enthusiasts have become disillusioned with the Kremlin’s handling and execution of operations in Ukraine particularly after the dramatic failed river crossing attempt at Bilohorivka in early May.[7] Girkin’s statements directly undermine the Kremlin’s efforts to frame Lysychansk as a significant victory or turning point and show that the disillusionment amongst ultra-nationalist elements in the Russian information space continues to run deep Girkin’s assessment of Russian military failures notably aligns with much of ISW’s (and other Western agencies’ and experts’) analysis suggesting that he and some other milbloggers continue to make and publish assessments of the situation and forecasts independent of the Kremlin line Girkin likely hopes to use his status as a prominent former participant in the war in Donbas in 2014 to persuade Putin to take certain measures to secure Russian success in a war that Girkin still thinks is justified and necessary—specifically mobilizing the Russian population for war on a much larger scale.[8] Girkin along with other members of the Russian nationalist milblogger space will likely continue to offer critiques of the Kremlin’s line on operations in Ukraine to advocate for general mobilization and more competent Russian military leadership Ukrainian forces are increasingly targeting Russian military infrastructure with indirect fire and US-provided HIMARS systems deep in occupied territory Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian ammunition depots in Dibrivne (close to the frontline) on July 4 and Snizhne We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut on July 4 to prepare for subsequent offensive operations toward Bakhmut and Siversk.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted a reconnaissance in force on the outskirts of Berestove and undertook offensive operations around the Vuhledar Power Plant and Mayorsk.[16] Russian forces will likely continue efforts to move west of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway to eventually drive on Bakhmut and Siversk although their ability to do so successfully following losses sustained during attempts to take Lysychansk is questionable.[17] NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) remotely sensed data showed fires near Spirne consistent with the Ukrainian General Staff’s reports [Source: NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults southwest of Donetsk City to improve their tactical position in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area on July 4.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted assaults in the direction of Pobeda and Mariinka Russian forces have reportedly occupied the dominant heights surrounding Novoselivka Druha (10km northeast of Avdiivka) and are using this position to exert fire control over Avdiivka.[19] Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Slovyansk near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border and made incremental gains on July 4.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces had “partial success” in Mazanivka and fought in Bohorodychne and Dolyna.[21] Russian forces also reportedly redeployed a battalion tactical group (BTG) from Izyum to Snizhkivka- just south of Izyum in the direction of Barvinkove which may suggest that Russian forces are preparing for renewed offensives southeast of Izyum towards Barvinkove NASA FIRMS data for July 4 showed large concentrations of heat anomalies in the wooded areas to the southeast of Izyum indicating probable locations for Russian indirect fire and Ukrainian counterbattery fires   Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border) Russian forces did not make any territorial gains on the Kharkiv City Axis on July 4 Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Prudyanka along the T2117 highway and Sosnivka less than 10 km from the Russian border.[22] Russian forces continued air and rocket strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and settlements north and east of Kharkiv City.[23] Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted spoiling attacks likely small reconnaissance in force operations east of Udy.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian ground forces with aviation support on the Kharkiv City Axis are focusing on restraining any Ukrainian offensive operations.[25] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces destroyed the temporary deployment points of the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized and 40th Artillery Brigades in Kharkiv City.[26] Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks) Russian forces focused on regaining lost positions in northeastern Kherson Oblast on July 4 The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks on Ivanivka and Myrne.[27] Russian forces reportedly deployed 17 railway wagons with ammunition from Crimea to northern Kherson Oblast likely to resupply Russian artillery units.[28] NASA’s FIRMS data showed abnormally high numbers of fires along the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast frontline on July 4 Russian and Ukrainian forces continued shelling across the line of contact along the entire Southern Axis on July 4.[29]   A Ukrainian partisan campaign may be targeting Russian rail lines near Melitopol in Zaporizhia Oblast The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Ukrainian partisans blew up a railway bridge near occupied Lyubimivka between Melitopol and Tokmak likely obstructing Russian resupply efforts from Crimea to the Zaporizhia Oblast front line.[30] Ukrainian partisans derailed a separate Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.[31] Ukrainian partisans had previously targeted Russian armored trains and locomotives in Melitopol in late April and mid-May.[32] This pattern of reported activity may indicate a coordinated partisan campaign targeting Russian rail lines Mobilization and Force-generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization) Russian leaders may be preparing to mobilize Ukrainian citizens in occupied areas this decree may set an internal Russian precedent for Russian authorities to begin forced mobilization campaigns throughout occupied parts of Ukraine to support force generation efforts in the coming months Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing) Russian authorities continued to set conditions for various annexation scenarios on July 4 Director of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov stated that Russia is preparing several annexation scenarios before September 11 the suggested date for the annexation of Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation.[34] Budanov claimed that Russia may be preparing to join Ukrainian territories to Russia create one large ”People’s Republic,” or annex individual territories to Russia large ”People’s Republic” is novel and has not yet been discussed by Ukrainian or Russian authorities A single ”People’s Republic” likely indicates that the Kremlin continues to hold territorial aspirations beyond the Donbas https://t.me/mod_russia/17385; https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/51078; https://tass dot ru/politika/15116687; https://ria dot ru/20220704/geroi-1800093356.html [2] https://tass dot ru/politika/15116687; https://ria dot ru/20220704/geroi-1800093356.html [3] https://t.me/strelkovii/2864; https://t.me/strelkovii/2863 [7] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14 [8] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/07/russia-ukraine-victory-day-mobilization/ [10] https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1543952771631747073 [11] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/4022; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/4019; [13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl [15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GfbuWUtdnkJiA21duGTUQ91naBvbBoQJs6siupM3cGAUhgsTbg45erxGPXFpHBF9l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl; https://t.me/rsotmdivision/142; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1543813758673469440; https://t.me/strelkovii/2863 [16] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GfbuWUtdnkJiA21duGTUQ91naBvbBoQJs6siupM3cGAUhgsTbg45erxGPXFpHBF9l [18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GfbuWUtdnkJiA21duGTUQ91naBvbBoQJs6siupM3cGAUhgsTbg45erxGPXFpHBF9l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl [20] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GfbuWUtdnkJiA21duGTUQ91naBvbBoQJs6siupM3cGAUhgsTbg45erxGPXFpHBF9l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl; https://t.me/milinfolive/86330 [21] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GfbuWUtdnkJiA21duGTUQ91naBvbBoQJs6siupM3cGAUhgsTbg45erxGPXFpHBF9l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl [22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GfbuWUtdnkJiA21duGTUQ91naBvbBoQJs6siupM3cGAUhgsTbg45erxGPXFpHBF9l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl; https://t.me/synegubov/3547 [23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl; https://t.me/synegubov/3547; https://t.me/rybar/34877 [25] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl [27] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl [28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0387nadvbW8LgDAtauW9ZS5NuTVpC21pr4pdNxw437brMXCZifA5BEFdm43mni9GJrl [29] https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/1681; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1250; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/682; https://t.me/rybar/34877; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/9973; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/9989; https://www.facebook.com/100064555155257/posts/pfbid0jNXePgf51nBb3rR2oyMGMCtvgYAkgfa33b8sKNcKMXzKpAjQxEmjdVY2MWLJkFLbl/?d=n; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GfbuWUtdnkJiA21duGTUQ91naBvbBoQJs6siupM3cGAUhgsTbg45erxGPXFpHBF9l [30] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/07/03/poblyzu-melitopolya-pidirvaly-zaliznychnyj-mist/ [31] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/07/03/partyzany-pid-melitopolem-vidpravyly-pid-ukis-rosijskyj-bronepoyizd/; https://t.me/riamelitopol/60204; https://www.facebook.com/100001701408811/videos/2172478259628933/RIA; https://t.me/riamelitopol/60204 [32] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20April%2028.pdf [33] https://www.facebook.com/ppu.gov.ua/posts/404441455063219 [34] https://www.rbc dot ua/ukr/news/kirill-budanov-voyna-zakonchitsya-sleduyushchem-1656837517.html Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychansk Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that Russian forces have captured Luhansk Oblast on July 3 after seizing Lysychansk and settlements on the Luhansk Oblast administrative border.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff also announced that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk to avoid personnel losses.[2] Russian forces have likely not fully cleared Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast as of July 3 The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Russian forces are still fighting within Lysychansk to defeat remaining encircled Ukrainian forces but the Ukrainian withdrawal means that Russian forces will almost certainly complete their clearing operations relatively quickly.[3] Russian forces will likely next advance on Siversk though they could launch more significant attacks on Bakhmut or Slovyansk instead or at the same time Ukrainian forces will likely continue their fighting withdrawal toward the E40 highway that runs from Slovyansk through Bakhmut toward Debaltseve It is unclear whether they will choose to defend around Siversk at this time Two very senior Russian commanders are reportedly responsible for the tactical activities around Lysychansk Ukrainian forces likely used US-provided HIMARS rocket artillery systems to strike a Russian ammunition depot at the Melitopol airfield on July 3 Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian forces launched two strikes on one of the four Russian depots in Melitopol.[5] Russian Telegram channel Rybar released footage of a large cloud of smoke over the city and Russian-appointed Melitopol Governor Yevhen Balytskyi falsely claimed that Ukrainian forces aimed to strike residential buildings but instead hit areas around the airfield.[6] The Kremlin likely seeks to expand Russian state control over private Russian companies that support elements of Russia’s military industrial base The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 3 that the Russian government’s inability to pay Russian firms supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine is degrading Russia’s ability to repair damaged vehicles The GUR reported that the directors of Russian military vehicle repair centers are not accepting new Russian equipment for repair because the Russian military has not paid these centers for previous work.[7] Recently proposed Russian legislation suggests that Kremlin leadership shares GUR’s assessment Russian legislators in the Russian State Duma submitted a bill on June 30 that would empower the Kremlin to introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” enabling the Russian government to force private Russian companies to provide supplies for Russian military operations.[8] The bill prohibits Russian businesses from refusing to fulfil Russian government procurement orders connected to Russian military operations Russian forces captured Luhansk Oblast’s administrative borders on July 3 following the Ukrainian withdrawal from Lysychansk and settlements in its vicinity Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces seized Lysychansk capturing the remaining salient around Lysychansk along the Luhansk Oblast boundary.[9] The Russian Defense Ministry added that Russian forces are still fighting encircled Ukrainian forces within Lysychansk as of July 3.[10] The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian forces deliberately withdrew from Lysychansk citing lack of equipment and concern over the loss of life.[11] Geolocated footage showed Russian forces casually walking around Bilohorivka on July 3 which further suggests that Ukrainian forces withdrew from settlements on the Luhansk Oblast border just west of Lysychansk.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff also confirmed that Russian forces captured Zolotarivka and are securing positions around Verkhnokamyanka Russian forces launched assaults northeast of Bakhmut in an effort to capture the remaining settlements along the Luhansk Oblast administrative borders The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults from Nyrokove on Berestove although ISW is unable to verify the footage.[16] Russian forces attacked settlements north of Slovyansk but did not secure new territorial gains on July 3 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Mazanivka and on Dolyna from Pasivka (northeast of the E40).[17] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces are using unspecified electronic warfare systems in the areas north of Slovyansk.[18] Pro-Russian military expert Boris Rozhin claimed that Russian forces are also engaged in positional battles in Velyka Komyshuvakha and Kurlka which would suggest that Russian forces are attempting to repel Ukrainian counterattacks in the area although ISW is unable to verify this assertion.[19] Slovyansk Mayor Vadym Lyakh and Russian sources reported that Russian forces are heavily shelling Slovyansk.[20] Russian forces are attempting to improve their tactical positions around Avdiivka and are continuing to shell and launch airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the area.[21] Rozhin claimed that Russian forces are fighting near the N20 Avdiivka-Konstantynivka highway and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are trying to improve tactical positions around Spartak.[22] Russian forces did not make any territorial gains northwest of Kharkiv City on July 3 Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack on Prudyanka along the T2117 highway and that Russian forces northwest of Kharkiv City otherwise focused on maintaining their current positions.[23] Russian forces continued shelling civilian and military infrastructure facilities in Kharkiv City and the surrounding settlements especially along the E105 and T2117 highways leading to Kharkiv City.[24] Russian forces are continuing to take defensive measures along the Southern Axis likely in an effort to repel Ukrainian counteroffensives Ukraine’s General Staff reported on July 3 that Russian forces conducted “systematic” tube and rocket artillery strikes to prevent Ukrainian units' advances.[25] NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) remotely sensed data showed abnormally high numbers of fires along the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast frontline on July 3 supporting the Ukrainian General Staff’s report.[26] These locations are plausible bases for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported on July 2 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian reconnaissance-in-force in the direction of Ivanivka in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[27] Odesa Oblast Military Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk also noted that Russian forces began accumulating military equipment in downtown Kherson City and Verhniy Rogachyk (eastern Kherson Oblast).[28]   Ukrainian combat aviation is reportedly still active in Kherson Oblast as of July 2 Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported that Ukrainian fixed and rotary wing aircraft conducted five strikes against Russian ammunition depots and force concentrations and claimed the destruction of two Russian ammunition depots in Chornobayivka and Snihurivka.[29] Russian forces continued conducting missile strikes against Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts on July 2 - 3.[30] Mobilization and force generation efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization) The Kremlin continued to set conditions for potential Russian annexation of proxy republics on July 3 Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin announced that United Russia Party Secretary of the General Council Andrey Turchak and party representatives established a legal aid center in Donetsk City.[31] Pushilin noted that the legal aid center will provide DNR residents assistance with education Pushilin and Turchak also handed out Russian passports to DNR residents.[32] The Kremlin is likely attempting to integrate proxy legal and governmental structures into the Russian framework Ukrainian partisans reportedly derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.[33] Kremlin-sponsored outlet RIA Novosti acknowledged that the train derailed around Yakymivka but claimed that the incident was an accident.[34] Ukrainian partisans previously targeted Russian armored trains and locomotives in Melitopol in late April and mid-May.[35]  [1] https://t.me/mod_russia/17364; https://t.me/mod_russia/17359 [2] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02KUS6NCfLiRTXJrfdm1sgwiTrpjrsX5VskaSavVFNcFYtHRehrMuEjTsY2H5XBuaXl [4] https://t.me/mod_russia/17359; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25 [5] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/229; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/228 [6] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/229; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/228; https://t.me/rybar/34808; https://t.me/rybar/34788; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/14874 [7] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/oboronni-pidpryiemstva-rosii-vidmovliaiutsia-remontuvaty-poshkodzhenu-boiovu-tekhniku-okupantiv.html [8] https://sozd.duma.gov dot ru/bill/155680-8#bh_histras ; https://t.me/bazabazon/12200 [9] https://t.me/mod_russia/17364; https://t.me/mod_russia/17359 [11] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02KUS6NCfLiRTXJrfdm1sgwiTrpjrsX5VskaSavVFNcFYtHRehrMuEjTsY2H5XBuaXl [12] https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1543585841192337408; https://t.me/zvezdanews/84600 [13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GgFrwE95gHa7mMJgRJihQbkWh8e5BVsxbAXEZY7PorJuc2xw7JUbm9kb7ohAJoQul; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02yfsNWHaKnJWYw6wcCCNr3vkGA42Y6Mp2WKaqCkRzWPjcVqPRJRWiBYmXj1vzJXGVl [14] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GgFrwE95gHa7mMJgRJihQbkWh8e5BVsxbAXEZY7PorJuc2xw7JUbm9kb7ohAJoQul [15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GgFrwE95gHa7mMJgRJihQbkWh8e5BVsxbAXEZY7PorJuc2xw7JUbm9kb7ohAJoQul [17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02yfsNWHaKnJWYw6wcCCNr3vkGA42Y6Mp2WKaqCkRzWPjcVqPRJRWiBYmXj1vzJXGVl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GgFrwE95gHa7mMJgRJihQbkWh8e5BVsxbAXEZY7PorJuc2xw7JUbm9kb7ohAJoQul https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GgFrwE95gHa7mMJgRJihQbkWh8e5BVsxbAXEZY7PorJuc2xw7JUbm9kb7ohAJoQul [18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02yfsNWHaKnJWYw6wcCCNr3vkGA42Y6Mp2WKaqCkRzWPjcVqPRJRWiBYmXj1vzJXGVl [20] https://t.me/spravdi/12339; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=797471214609414; https://www.facebook.com/Vadymlyakh/posts/pfbid0hDvLcSWDkD9fHREoSAKCTVPThpQBgEnTU6sPoE8iHp6DdnvEs7to79GngBCiHeHkl; https://www.facebook.com/Vadymlyakh/posts/pfbid0Sm5RrWkD6eQ7LY7kddBBoQbEQEEMR2mbhVkwjLUtxVCJrmnwqTiAs36N3LVKWAWbl; https://t.me/rybar/34819 [21] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02yfsNWHaKnJWYw6wcCCNr3vkGA42Y6Mp2WKaqCkRzWPjcVqPRJRWiBYmXj1vzJXGVl [22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02yfsNWHaKnJWYw6wcCCNr3vkGA42Y6Mp2WKaqCkRzWPjcVqPRJRWiBYmXj1vzJXGVl; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/38046 [23] https://t.me/synegubov/3540; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02yfsNWHaKnJWYw6wcCCNr3vkGA42Y6Mp2WKaqCkRzWPjcVqPRJRWiBYmXj1vzJXGVl [24] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02yfsNWHaKnJWYw6wcCCNr3vkGA42Y6Mp2WKaqCkRzWPjcVqPRJRWiBYmXj1vzJXGVl; https://t.me/synegubov/3540; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0GgFrwE95gHa7mMJgRJihQbkWh8e5BVsxbAXEZY7PorJuc2xw7JUbm9kb7ohAJoQul [25] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02yfsNWHaKnJWYw6wcCCNr3vkGA42Y6Mp2WKaqCkRzWPjcVqPRJRWiBYmXj1vzJXGVl [26] https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/active_fire/ [27] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=569236938010880 [29] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=569236938010880 [30] https://t.me/mod_russia/17360; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=569236938010880 [32] https://t.me/turchak_andrey/308; https://t.me/pushilindenis/2405 [33] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/07/03/partyzany-pid-melitopolem-vidpravyly-pid-ukis-rosijskyj-bronepoyizd/; https://t.me/riamelitopol/60204; https://www.facebook.com/100001701408811/videos/2172478259628933/RIA [35] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20April%2028.pdf Moscow-installed officials say Ukrainian shelling killed at least 28 people at a bakery in the Russian-occupied city of Lysychansk In this photo taken from video released by Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service on Saturday Russian Emergency Ministry employees work at the side of a collapsed bakery after an attack of Ukrainian troops that Russian officials in Luhansk said was conducted by Ukrainian forces According to the Russian Emergency Ministry five people were found dead under the rubble Eight people were injured and there might be dozens of civilians under the debris (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP) Ukrainian shelling killed at least 28 people at a bakery in the Russian-occupied city of Lysychansk At least one child was among the dead Saturday local leader Leonid Pasechnik wrote in a statement on Telegram A further 10 people were rescued from under the rubble by emergency services Ukrainian officials in Kyiv did not comment on the incident Both Moscow and Kyiv have increasingly relied on longer-range attacks this winter amid largely unchanged positions on the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line in the nearly 2-year-old war Ukrainian forces have come under intense Russian attack over the past 24 hours with continuous assaults along the front line Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement Sunday Fighting has been particularly fierce in the eastern city of Avdiivka where Moscow is attempting to encircle Kyiv’s troops while Ukrainian forces have also been on the defensive in Kupiansk One civilian was killed and two injured in a Russian artillery strike in the frontline town of Toretsk less than 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) from Bakhmut said Donetsk regional governor Vadym Filashkin The military administration for Ukraine’s northern Sumy region said Sunday that Russian forces had shelled the region in 16 separate attacks the previous day firing on the border communities of Yunakivka also said that Kyiv’s troops had pushed back Russian sabotage and reconnaissance units attempting to cross the border in the Sumy region With Ukraine’s soldiers concentrated in the eastern regions of Donetsk the reported incursion suggests that Moscow could be probing vulnerabilities on a new front to further stretch Ukrainian resources Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian frontal assaults in Severodonetsk through prudent and effective local counterattacks in Severodonetsk and their defense of the western Siverskyi Donets riverbank Ukrainian officials reported on June 3 that Ukrainian defenders pushed back against Russian advances in Severodonetsk and are actively hindering Russian advances on Lysychansk from the southwest.[1]  Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai disagreed with the UK Defense Ministry forecast on June 3 that Russian forces will seize the remaining 10% of the oblast in the next two weeks claiming that Ukrainian forces have enough reinforcements and equipment to conduct further counterattacks and defend their positions.[2] Haidai noted that Russian forces wrongfully believe in their own successes enabling Ukrainian defenders to inflict high losses against unsuspecting Chechen units The Ukrainian government and military are furthermore discussing the battle of Severodonetsk in increasingly confident terms and are likely successfully blunting the Russian military’s major commitment of reserves to the grinding battle for the city While Russian forces may still be able to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and Ukrainian forces are likely more degraded than Haidai’s statements imply Ukrainian defenses remain strong in this pivotal theater The Russian military has concentrated all of its available resources on this single battle to make only modest gains The Ukrainian military contrarily retains the flexibility and confidence to not only conduct localized counterattacks elsewhere in Ukraine (such as north of Kherson) but conduct effective counterattacks into the teeth of Russian assaults in Severodonetsk that reportedly retook 20% of the city in the last 24 hours The Ukrainian government’s confidence in directly stating its forces can hold Severodonetsk for more than two weeks and willingness to conduct local counterattacks rather than strictly remaining on the defensive is a marked shift from Ukrainian statements as recently as May 28 that Ukrainian forces might withdraw from Severodonetsk to avoid encirclement.[4] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated on June 3 that Russia will continue its “special military operation” in Ukraine until Russia achieves all of its objectives.[5] Peskov noted that Russia has already “liberated” many settlements since the start of the operation The Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist political goals for Ukraine even though it has been forced to revise downward its immediate military objectives ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time We have stopped coverage of Mariupol as a separate effort since the city’s fall We had added a new section on activities in Russian-occupied areas: Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts Russian forces carried out limited assault operations southeast of Izyum and near Barvinokove (southwest of Izyum) but did not make any territorial gains on June 4 Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to seize Virnopillya but ISW cannot independently verify this claim.[11] The Russian Defense Ministry blamed the fire on Ukrainian forces and claimed that Russian forces did not launch assaults on Sviatohirsk.[12] Russian Telegram channels claimed that Russian forces seized Sosnove just north of Sviatohirsk and Brusivka approximately 9km southwest of Lyman.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are still attempting to secure the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in Staryi Karavan approximately 1km northeast of Brusivka.[14] Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack in Severodonetsk on June 3 approximately 16km southeast of Severodonetsk likely in an effort to secure positions on the western Siverskyi Donets Riverbank.[20] Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum) Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in the Kharkiv City direction and continued to defend their previously occupied positions on June 4 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions northeast of Kharkiv City and launched a missile strike on a transportation infrastructure facility near Mokhnach approximately 36km southeast of the city.[26] Pro-Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Ukrainian engineering elements reached Khotomlya approximately 46km east of Kharkiv City and on the eastern bank of Pechenihy Reservoir but have not regained full control over the territory.[27] Ukrainian officials and media sources have not shown any evidence that Ukrainian defenders crossed the Pechenihy Reservoir but such an advance would threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in northern Kharkiv Oblast The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to deliver ammunition to frontline units and withdrew up to 100 unspecified items of damaged military equipment via GLOCs in northern Kharkiv Oblast on June 4.[28] Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks) Russian forces continued to undertake defensive measures and conducted missile and artillery strikes throughout southern Ukraine on June 4 The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that small-scale fighting continued on the line of contact but that Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations.[29] Russian forces continued to generate forces in Vasylkivka approximately 45km south of Zaporizhia City.[30] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces fired at Ukrainian positions in central Zaporizhia Oblast and launched an airstrike on a Kamianske just north of Vasylkivka.[31] Russian forces launched missile strikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts and continued to shell Mykolaiv City and Kherson Oblast.[32] Activity in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing) Russian President Vladimir Putin falsely denied that Russia is blocking Ukrainian seaports and inhibiting grain exports on June 3 despite Russian forces reportedly continuing to loot Ukrainian agribusiness.[33] Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar reported that Russian forces are exporting stolen grain from Kherson Oblast to Turkey and other unspecified countries.[34] Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported that Ukrainian authorities are working with an unspecified international coalition to negotiate a prisoner exchange of the Mariupol defenders.[35] The SBU noted that the unspecified international coalition guaranteed the return of the Mariupol defenders possibly implying that Russian and Ukrainian forces reached a conditional agreement upon the Ukrainian surrender of the Azovstal Steel Plant in Mariupol The SBU added that the Red Cross bears the responsibility for all surrendered Mariupol defenders The SBU noted that the Kremlin seeks to put Mariupol defenders on a demonstrative trial but did not specify how Russian sentencing could impact the prisoner exchange Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces evenly exchanged bodies of deceased servicemen on June 4.[36] Russian occupation authorities are unable to entirely suppress Ukrainian partisan activity despite ongoing efforts to restrict movement and telecommunications in occupied territories [1] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3161; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3159; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3149; https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1533018778644119553; https://t.me/swodki/109699 [2] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1532600250841669632; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3149 [4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28 [6] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3 [7] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3 [10] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332591192387299 [11] https://twitter.com/UKRinOSCE/status/1533046245287247873 [13] https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/50403; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/52103; https://t.me/swodki/109751; https://t.me/TRO_DPR/3144 [14] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983 [16] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37045; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/6616; https://t.me/strelkovii/2647 [18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983 [21] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3161; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3149; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983 [22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332591192387299 [23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983 [24] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1532979813048360961 [25] https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/14105; https://t.me/vysokygovorit/8248 [26] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983; https://t.me/synegubov/3383 [27] https://t.me/rybar/33544; https://t.me/rybar/33349; https://t.me/rybar/33458 ; https://argumenti ru/army/2022/06/774799 [28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983 [31] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332591192387299 [32] https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/13315; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/13314; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/13340; https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/50412; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983 [33] https://smotrim dot ru/video/2420860?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=main&utm_campaign=main-promo [34] https://suspilne dot media/246460-posol-ukraini-zaklikav-tureccinu-poasniti-comu-v-krainu-vivoza [38] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/332187685760983 [39] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/06/04/4303/  (function (w) { var el = (window.__shadowRoot || document).getElementById('BTQmFnMLPC-background-viewport'); w.Shorthand && w.Shorthand.initInstantImage w.Shorthand.initInstantImage(el) : w.SHPreloadInstantImages w.SHPreloadInstantImages.push(el) : w.SHPreloadInstantImages = [el]; w.Shorthand.initFocalPointPictures(); })(window)By Alex Crawford special correspondentThe people of Lysychansk are facing a barrage of Russian strikes the like of which they've not seen before.  The shells are raining down on them with explosions every few minutes and they're horribly random and shockingly indiscriminate This is a bloody and destructive war and the Russian sledgehammer is smashing down on this strategic city in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine The only warning for people might be a thud as the deadly weapon is unleashed followed by a terrifying whistle as the projectile screams through the air It is unrelenting and unforgiving and ever since the fall of the industrial city of Severodonetsk (on 24 June) its neighbour Lysychansk has been the focus of a savage onslaught from the Russian war machine It now seems to be heading towards the inevitable: a Russian blockade followed by capture.  Time is running out for the last remaining city under Ukrainian control in the Luhansk region of the Donbas What's remarkable is that it hasn't already succumbed to what appears to be an unavoidable crushing by the Russian attackers in the face of an unrelenting bombardment of artillery and airstrikes It must surely be only a matter of days now before Russian troops manage to loop it cut it off and seize control and ownership We saw the scramble to get the most vulnerable out of the city in a brief lull in the fighting We witnessed the almost constant bombardment from the skies as residents cowered in basements or under doorways exhausted yet defiant – and others preparing to go into battle in their place.  The city is unrecognisableSoldiers and civilians are being injured and killed – on both sides - and Lysychansk has been changed forever in the past few days such is the ferocity of the onslaught against it It's almost unrecognisable from the city we visited just a few weeks ago Several humanitarian aid hubs have been destroyed after being repeatedly targeted distributing water and food to the remaining residents the explosions start again leaving burned out hulks in their path Administrative buildings have been bombed and burned All bridges into the city have been destroyed One exhausted police officer told us about 60% of the city is now destroyed When the Russians do finally take over the city on the other side of the Siverskyi Donets river is already under Russian control after what the Ukrainian authorities described as a "tactical retreat" Ukrainian special forces are believed to be still operating inside the fallen city directing artillery strikes against Russian soldiers who have taken up occupation in many of the abandoned homes there says much of it has been reduced to rubble.   we saw Ukrainian troops inside Lysychansk tooling up and readying themselves for fresh battles against their enemies We saw them parading a captured Russian armed personnel carrier the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag flying high above it And civilians led us to a dead Russian soldier whose body had been left on the side of the street by Ukrainian troops who dumped it out of the captured personnel carrier for residents to see collected the dead soldier's belongings in a plastic bag and lay the scattered Russian uniforms They told us the few details they could gather about him would be logged in an attempt to try to identify him "They are still human beings," the police officer said. "From our side we'll do everything we can to get the body back to his relatives." The loss of Severodonetsk and the glaring possibility of Lysychansk following is the biggest setback for the Ukrainians since the Russians captured the city of Mariupol and may explain why the Ukrainians are working hard to portray it as military tactics and their "decision" 'We will not surrender'Troops we spoke to on the way out of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk vowed this battlefield upset was only "temporary" But there's no doubt the ordered military exodus from Severodonetsk has left Lysychansk vulnerable and exposed Whilst geographically better positioned to withstand an invasion from across the river in the east their Russian enemies have also been advancing from the south in a bid to blockade the city none of the soldiers we spoke to viewed the departure from Severodonetsk as a "failure" despite the statements from the authorities Gregori told us "We will not surrender" while Mykolia from the 10th Brigade added: "We are sad but we will fight to get it back Nineteen-year-old Eugene from the National Guard has spent the past four months in Severodonetsk before moving on to Lysychansk He is old enough to fight - and nearly die - but young enough to question his seniors' decisions "Of course it's a pity because we're just giving it to them.. A number of the soldiers were bristling with unconcealed anger at what they perceive to be the slowness from their Western allies in providing them with modern weaponry In response to my question about what he wanted to say to European leaders meeting at the G7 and NATO summits this week from the Territorial Defence didn’t mince his words: "Tell them to stop being such f*****g p*****s." Life amidst the chaosThere are a remarkable number of residents still inside Lysychansk despite the diminishing odds of holding out against a Russian blockade and the growing possibility the Ukrainian troops may opt for another staged retreat from here The authorities estimate there could be as many as 15,000 people still in the city from an original population of about 100,000 It's difficult to gauge exact numbers as the city has not been functioning normally for four months And the hardy holdouts spend long hours sheltering underground in basements But we saw many trying to eke out a life amidst the chaos in this war zone We saw children playing in shelters and parents lining up to get water and food they've watched as the Russians battered and bombed neighbouring Severodonetsk perhaps never quite believing it would fall But standing firm against a Russian army with such an insatiable appetite for death and destruction means accepting there will be countless killed and injured.   And Lysychansk is being attacked on two main fronts now with ever diminishing chances of being able to withstand this brutal Russian invasion The oil refinery on the city’s western edge is ablaze with multiple fires and continual We drive into the dense clouds of smoke and black billowing fumes from the burning oil and it feels what I can only imagine how driving into the heart of Armageddon might be - past tattered and mangled army vehicles and along a road carpeted by shrapnel and chunks of debris Inside a bunker hidden in the oil refinery we find soldiers from the 46th Battalion of the 24th Brigade shifting from this position to another from where they will carry on fighting.  They've come under savage attack and are bitterly disappointed about losing Severodonetsk defending Lysychansk all the more important and they don't want to give up an inch of territory But they follow their orders and tell us anyway that they agree although everything about them screams reluctance at giving ground But every bit of their territory being swallowed up by the Russians hurts… and their enemies are making slow but steady progress The battalion commander tells us: "We are going out but some other units will stay." He insists the soldiers aren't leaving Lysychansk "We just want to regroup in a better position," he says The lights inside the bunker are stripped down and we leave the shelter as the final one is turned off and the men carry their kit outside to waiting vehicles and speed off.   'We're tired of this war'Inside the city centre life – if you can call it that – is unbelievably miserable The residents have little money – and few goods to purchase anyway Survival here means running the gauntlet of constant strikes to find water and hoping the aid centre has food parcels to hand out We see residents pushing their bicycles up a hill laden with bottles of water they've filled from a lake "We’re tired of this war," says the only man at the lakeside willing to talk to us This group blame us as Westerners for what they're going through and don't buy into the narrative this is Russia's fault Anton tells us: "We have to walk a long way just to get water He tells us he believes it's the Ukrainians and President Zelenskyy who started this war It's a view which he is resolutely stubborn about.  As we follow a volunteer postman delivering aid boxes and food parcels to those in the suburbs Fedir shows us the underground bunker hidden in his garden But he too believes it would be better if the Russians took control here There is a not insignificant pro-Russian separatist sentiment in this area and one which the Kremlin is all too keen to exploit and foster.  We bed down for the night in a multi-roomed basement in the city centre on the strict agreement we do not film any of our fellow sleepers There are dozens of people here and among them are families But even underground we can hear the muffled but constant rumble of war as the two enemies continue to battle it out above us through the night The morning chorus is the repetitive crunch thud of shelling and the raging thunder of grad rockets being fired in retort We watch as a woman calmly walks to a rubbish tip to deposit her garbage as another shell whistles over her head to thud a dozen seconds later It's an astonishing numbness to these terrifying and potentially deadly sounds which comes after months of endurance.  There are constant fires inside the city centre as residential blocks are shelled on a daily basis staring at the large apartment block where he still lives He tells us the explosion which tore through his building happened at six o’clock the night before but it was only around midnight when he blew out his candle to try to sleep that he realised the floor above and his ceiling was on fire He lost his wife to a short illness soon after the invasion began and he's now facing this horror alone.  Yet despite the two floors above him being burned out and still smouldering after the Russian strike he can't bring himself to accept his home is beyond being habitable.  "Are you still living here?" we ask incredulously yes of course," he replies as if this is the most natural and obvious reaction to his apartment block being ravaged by smoke and flames I have no place..." His voice tapers off as he looks at the still smouldering block His determined sprinkling of water to bring down the heat doesn't seem nearly enough to stop the fire's march towards his own flat He just can't bear the pain of leaving what's his It's much like the rest of Lysychansk: people and troops alike Ukrainian officials ordered a controlled withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk on June 24 Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai announced that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from “broken positions” in Severodonetsk to prevent further personnel losses and maintain a stronger defense elsewhere.[1] Severodonetsk Regional Military Administration Head Roman Vlasenko stated that several Ukrainian units remain in Severodonetsk as of June 24 but Ukrainian forces will complete the full withdrawal in “a few days.”[2] An unnamed Pentagon official noted that Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will allow Ukrainian troops to secure better defensive positions and further wear down Russian manpower and equipment.[3] The Pentagon official noted that Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already show signs of “wear and tear” and “debilitating morale,” which will only further slow Russian offensive operations in Donbas Russian forces have been attempting to seize Severodonetsk since at least March 13 exhausting their forces and equipment over three months.[4] Ukrainian forces will likely maintain their defenses around Lysychansk and continue to exhaust Russian troops after the fall of Severodonetsk Ukrainian forces will occupy higher ground in Lysychansk which may allow them to repel Russian attacks for some time if the Russians are unable to encircle or isolate them Russian forces in Severodonetsk will also need to complete river crossings from the east which will require additional time and effort Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that Russian forces will completely encircle Lysychansk in the next two or three days after fully interdicting Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs).[5] Russian forces have successfully secured access to Ukrainian GLOCs along the Hirske-Lysychansk highway by breaking through Hirske on June 24 but Russian forces will need to cut Ukrainian logistics routes from Bakhmut and Siversk to fully isolate Lysychansk Russian forces are likely to face challenges completing a larger encirclement around Lysychansk due to a failed river crossing in Bilohorivka Ukrainian forces will likely conduct a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk if Russian forces threaten Ukrainian strongholds in the area Ukrainian intelligence warned that Russian forces will carry out false-flag attacks in Belarus to draw Belarusian forces into the Russian invasion of Ukraine The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian sabotage groups and mercenaries arrived in Mozyr to detonate apartment buildings and civilian infrastructure around the city.[6] The GUR noted that Russian saboteurs will follow a pattern similar to apartment bombings in Chechnya in the early 2000s Ukrainian officials have previously reported on possible false-flag attacks in Belarus throughout the past four months Unidentified assailants resumed attacks against Russian military recruitment centers on June 24 indicating intensifying discontent with covert mobilization Russian outlet Baza reported two incidents where unknown attackers threw Molotov Cocktails at military recruitment offices in Belgorod City and Perm on June 24.[7] Baza also reported that Belgorod Oblast Police started a search for four contract servicemen—one sergeant and three ordinary soldiers–who have deserted their military unit stationed in Belgorod Oblast.[8] Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts Russian forces continued to advance toward Lysychansk from the south and launched assaults on Severodonetsk Russian forces likely encircled some Ukrainian forces in Zolote and continued to attack Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T1303 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway Hirske District Head Oleksiy Babchenko reported that Russian forces occupied all settlements in Hirske district following a breakthrough from the east.[15] Hirske is situated just northeast of Ukrainian fortifications in Zolote and Russian control of the settlement indicates that Russian forces have successfully bypassed and encircled Ukrainian positions Babchenko said that Ukrainian officials ordered a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Zolote three to four days ago The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces encircled 1,800 Ukrainian servicemen in Zolote-Hirske but ISW is unable to verify the number of Ukrainian servicemen remaining in the settlement.[16] Ukrainian forces also lost access to the T1303 Hirske-Lysychansk highway and adjacent roads with the last humanitarian shipment arriving in Hirske on June 17.[17]  Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces are fighting in Mykolaivka and Berestove to interdict the adjacent T1303.[18] Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk and west of Izyum on June 24 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repulsed Russian assaults on Borhorodychne and Dolyna on the E40 highway to Slovyansk.[19] Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk noted that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Kurulka and Virnopillya in an effort to set conditions for a renewed offensive operation on Barvinkove approximately 35 km southwest of Izyum.[20] Motuzyanyk added that Russian forces are accumulating additional reserves and deployed a battery of Uragan MLRS to Novoselivka Russian forces will likely prioritize completing the operational encirclement of Lysychansk from Lyman in the future rather than conducting a ground assault on Slovyansk Russian forces continue to shell Siversk (approximately 28 km northwest of Lysychansk) likely in an effort to interdict the remaining Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.[22] Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok noted that Russian forces will attempt to seize Lysychansk before mid-July ahead of the rainy season which would complicate Russian advances due to muddy roads.[23] Kotyenok added that Russian forces do not have enough manpower to encircle heavily fortified Slovyansk and Kramatorsk Russian forces will need recovery time to initiate advances on Slovyansk following the grinding campaign to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk a settlement on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast likely in a continuing effort to maintain Russian logistics routes to Izyum and Luhansk Oblast.[27] Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in Kherson Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders on June 24 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that half of the Russian forces retreated to Olhine just south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border although the full intentions of his visit remain unclear.[31] Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing) Ukrainian partisans continued to target Russian collaborators in Kherson City and are complicating Russian efforts to establish local occupation administrations Ukrainian civilians continue to flee Russian occupied settlements in southern Ukraine Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov estimated that over 35,000 Melitopol residents left the city last month.[34] ISW previously reported that Enerhodar residents are also leaving the city to avoid collaborating with Russian officials.[35] [1] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3723; https://suspilne dot media/253500-zsu-dovedetsa-vijti-z-severodonecka-na-bils-ukripleni-pozicii-gajdaj/; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3727 [2] https://t.me/milinfolive/85706; https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-22/h_331623602548c154add7ac769527eece [3] https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1540320014200340480 [4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13 [5] https://t.me/miroshnik_r/7737; https://www.kp dot ru/daily/27409/4607409/ [6] https://gur.gov dot ua/content/kreml-planuie-pidryv-zhytlovykh-budynkiv-u-mozyri-shchob-vtiahnuty-bilorus-u-viinu-proty-ukrainy.html;https://t.me/DIUkraine/734; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/14355 [7] https://t.me/bazabazon/12115; https://t.me/bazabazon/12117 [9] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466; https://t.me/rybar/34323; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37791; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3716?single; [11] https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vidstup-zsu-z-lysychanska-syevyerodonetsk/31913046.html; https://t.me/stranaua/48623 [12] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3730 [14] https://vk.com/mil?z=video-133441491_456261422%2Fd994b3b3b5e2f47504%2Fpl_wall_-133441491; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1540366630206808064 [15] https://t.me/espresotb/33236; https://t.me/spravdi/11494 [16] https://t.me/mod_russia/17103; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37791 [18] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html; https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vidstup-zsu-z-lysychanska-syevyerodonetsk/31913046.html; https://t.me/stranaua/48623 [19] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466; https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html [20] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html [21] Ukrainian sources likely incorrectly reported that Motuzyanyk referred to Novoselivka in Kharkiv Oblast Motuzyanyk likely referred to Novoselivka in northeastern Donetsk Oblast https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html [22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466 [23] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37813; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37797 [24] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37791; https://t.me/rybar/34336 [25] https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryazovya-mykolayiv-obstrili-senkevych/31911643.html?fbclid=IwAR2trXw_eKhzEEPeMQbbP8auGDCTNaP9YcIzFyNbm5hiS0gVsoKPcOnIGhE; https://t.me/stranaua/48615; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030; https://t.me/der_rada/1679; [26] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466 [27] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514348-rosiani-namagautsa-otociti-ukrainski-vijska-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21 [28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466 [29] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=462265935735111; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=544942880473798 [30] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514348-rosiani-namagautsa-otociti-ukrainski-vijska-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html [31] https://www dot gazeta.ru/army/news/2022/06/24/17996228.shtml; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37797 [32] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/06/24/v-hersoni-pidirvaly-shhe-odnogo-kolaboranta/; https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/24/car-bomb-kills-russia-installed-official-in-occupied-ukraine-a78094 [33] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=462265935735111 [34] https://www dot unian dot net/war/v-melitopole-rossiyane-gotovyatsya-k-referendumu-sozdali-shtab-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11877771 dot html; http://ukrstat dot gov dot ua/druk/publicat/kat_u/2021/zb/05/zb_chuselnist%202021 dot pdf [35] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21 Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a fighting withdrawal that may include pulling back from Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast in the near future and which probably aims to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces began a large-scale withdrawal from Lysychansk towards Siversk and Slovyansk on June 28.[1] Although ISW cannot confirm independently Miroshnik’s claims of an ongoing withdrawal Ukrainian forces may continue the fighting withdrawal that began in Severodonetsk to Ukrainian strongholds around Siversk The staunch but limited Ukrainian defense of Severodonetsk imposed high costs on the Russians despite new Russian tactics intended to limit Russian casualties Kyiv could continue this approach until the Russian attack culminates or Ukrainian forces reach more defensible positions along a straighter line dotted with fortified cities and towns The pace and outcome of the next phase of the current campaign may depend in part on Russia’s ability to recoup combat power from the forces that participated in the Battle of Severodonetsk The remaining Russian forces in Severodonetsk will need to cross the Siverskyi Donets River into Lysychansk from Severodonetsk or its surrounding settlements to participate further in the Russian offensive This movement could require some time since the Russians destroyed the three main bridges across the river near the city Miroshnik claimed that Russian forces have already crossed the Siverskyi Donets River from Kreminna and are building bridgeheads for further attacks on Lysychansk from the north.[2] ISW cannot independently verify Miroshnik’s claims and Russian forces threaten to complete the cauldron by pushing from the north and southwest of Lysychansk then Ukrainian forces will likely abandon Lysychansk as well and conduct a fighting withdrawal to more defensible positions Russian forces that have engaged in continuous offensive operations in Severodonetsk will also require some time to restore combat capabilities before participating in an assault on northern or northeastern Lysychansk An unnamed Pentagon official stated that Russian forces continue to endure significant losses in fights for small territorial gains and Russian groups that fought in Severodonetsk likely lost personnel and equipment.[3] The locations and strength of the Russian troops that seized Severodonetsk remain unclear at this time A notable acceleration of Russian attacks from the south of Lysychansk or from across the Siverskyi Donetsk River would likely indicate that the Russians have completed a redeployment of forces from Severodonetsk Ukraine’s Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported that the Kremlin replaced Western Military District (WMD) Commander Alexander Zhuravlev with the former commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Andrey Sychevoy.[4] CIT added that WMD Chief of Staff Aleksey Zavizion was relieved ISW cannot independently verify these reports and will continue to monitor the situation for further corroboration Russian forces continue to look for additional reserves to replenish personnel losses in Ukraine but these reserves are unlikely to initiate rotations or provide combat-ready manpower Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov announced that he will form four new battalions “with an impressive number of personnel” on June 26.[5] Kadyrov also announced that Chechen forces formed a West-Akhmat battalion “in the shortest possible” time and claimed that the unit would deploy to a well-equipped base in Chechnya Chechen forces will likely deploy the newly-created battalion to the frontline without sufficient training Social media users also released footage of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) rounding up “volunteers” in Donetsk City as part of the recruitment campaign on June 28.[6] Wives of servicemen of the Russian 5th Guards Separate Tank Brigade issued a video plea for the immediate rotation of their husbands back home noting that their husbands had left their permanent bases of deployment in January 2022 for “exercises in Belarus.”[7] The video indicates that the Russian military command has expressed its intentions for unit rotations Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations southwest of Lysychansk to sever the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in several areas Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces attempted to gain a foothold in the southern part of the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and pushed west of Vochoyarivka but did not reach the T1302 as of June 28.[8] Haidai also added that Russian forces fought south and southwest of Lysychansk Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that LNR and Russian forces have advanced a third of the way into Lysychansk from the south and are fighting at the Shaktar football stadium while other troops cross the Siverskyi Donetsk River around Kreminna ISW is unable to independently verify these claims.[9] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces also conducted an unsuccessful attack west of Mykolaivka and Yakovlivka both along the T1302.[10] Russian Su-25 aircraft struck Ukrainian positions in Bila Hora Russian forces continued to make limited territorial gains south of Bakhmut on June 28 Russian forces continued to attack settlements along the E-40 highway that runs from Slovyansk to Bakhmut approximately 13km southeast of Bakhmut.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff also added that Russian forces are attacking in the direction of the Uglehirska Power Plant northwest of Svitlodarsk.[13] Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled Russian attacks in Pavlivka just east of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.[14] Russian forces are likely continuing to launch spoiling attacks west of Izyum to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives in the area The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted an unsuccessful assault on Zalyman having failed to advance in the area yesterday.[15] Russian forces likely continued to attack Zalyman with insufficient combat power to make real gains in their effort to disrupt Ukrainian counter-offensives and thereby defend Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum through Borova (approximately 41km east) Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian equipment in Vesele just east of Zalyman.[16] Russian forces are likely also continuing to conduct aerial reconnaissance and operate near Velyka Komyshuvakha (approximately 21km west of Izyum) to disrupt Ukrainian advances from the west.[17] Russian forces conducted assaults north of Slovyansk but were unable to advance along the E-40 highway on June 28 Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian offensive operations on Mazanivka just west of the E40.[18] Russian forces also continued to shell settlements around Lyman and Slovyansk itself.[19] Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast and continued to undertake measures to prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the international border or striking Russian positions southeast of Kharkiv City Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack on Dementiivka along the Kharkiv City-Belgorod highway.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian Ka-52 helicopters struck in the area of Yavirske likely to hinder Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.[21] Russian forces continued to shell Kharkiv City and settlements in its vicinity and conduct aerial reconnaissance.[22] Ukrainian forces continued to launch counteroffensive operations north of Kherson City on June 28 Ukrainian military journalist Andriy Tsaplienko reported that Ukrainian forces liberated Zelenyi Hai and Barvinok approximately 25km north of Kherson City on the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast border.[23] An unnamed Pentagon official had previously reported that Ukrainian forces liberated small villages north and northwest of Kherson City over the weekend but neither Ukrainian nor US officials had named these settlements as of June 28.[24] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain previously lost positions in Potyomkyne and Lupareve in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[25] Russian forces continued to shell and launch air strikes along the Mykolaiv-Kherson and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders to disrupt Ukrainian counteroffensives.[26] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Gumenyuk noted that Ukrainian forces also struck three Russian Pantsir systems in a continuing effort to destroy Russian defenses on the Snake Island off the Romanian coast.[27] [1] https://t.me/miroshnik_r/7782; https://t.me/strelkovii/2808; https://t.me/rybar/34573 [3] https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3075839/dod-official-says-ukrainians-heroically-defending-lysychansk/ [4] https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1541503442048393217 [6] https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1541729059406757888?s=20&t=zs9bixns1sECn07hRrj17Q [8] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3829?single; https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3517127-vijska-rf-namagautsa-otociti-zsu-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html [9] https://t.me/miroshnik_r/7781; https://t.me/rybar/34573 [10] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349903877322697; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349903877322697 [11] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3517127-vijska-rf-namagautsa-otociti-zsu-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html [12] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3517127-vijska-rf-namagautsa-otociti-zsu-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html [13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349903877322697 [14] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349903877322697 [15]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09KF3ZPHgiZqFf9FG94zErTtmSd4FqNskYcJHwWx22YgxoYNkDDFSExNXvcAjidZPl; [16] https://twitter.com/Noobieshunta_/status/1541716205316218880 [17] https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1541348686067896322; https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3517115-zsu-na-harkivsini-vidkinuli-voroga-na-dvoh-napramkah.html; https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3517127-vijska-rf-namagautsa-otociti-zsu-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html [18] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3517115-zsu-na-harkivsini-vidkinuli-voroga-na-dvoh-napramkah.html [19] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09KF3ZPHgiZqFf9FG94zErTtmSd4FqNskYcJHwWx22YgxoYNkDDFSExNXvcAjidZPl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349903877322697 [20] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3517115-zsu-na-harkivsini-vidkinuli-voroga-na-dvoh-napramkah.html [21] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09KF3ZPHgiZqFf9FG94zErTtmSd4FqNskYcJHwWx22YgxoYNkDDFSExNXvcAjidZPl [22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09KF3ZPHgiZqFf9FG94zErTtmSd4FqNskYcJHwWx22YgxoYNkDDFSExNXvcAjidZPl; https://t.me/synegubov/3504; https://t.me/synegubov/3505; https://t.me/synegubov/3510; https://twitter.com/StudMedia/status/1541444598517702657; https://www.facebook.com/Zadorenko/posts/pfbid02caPJu9oUP12c7z7ba8GuZNgSVqU7TNpmWKV7r9fVrA3RtzR1h4U9hMaZGgYeNeghl [24] https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3075839/dod-official-says-ukrainians-heroically-defending-lysychansk/ [25] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1107639849819527 [26] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09KF3ZPHgiZqFf9FG94zErTtmSd4FqNskYcJHwWx22YgxoYNkDDFSExNXvcAjidZPl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349903877322697; https://t.me/rybar/34542; https://t.me/rybar/34537 [27] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37924; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhs2JS_f9bI; https://tsn dot ua/ru/ato/ocherednoy-udar-vsu-po-ostrovu-zmeinyy-v-ok-yug-rasskazali-detali-o-rezultatah-voennoy-operacii-2097703.html [29] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/06/27/okupanty-ne-mozhut-znajty-kolaborantiv-sered-medykiv-na-hersonshhyni/ [30] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1459994497781797/ Its defence minister has told Russian President Vladimir Putin that all of Ukraine's Luhansk region has been 'liberated' Ukrainian defence ministry spokesman Yuriy Sak has told the BBC that Lysychansk is not under the "full control" of Russian forces He added the situation in the city has been "very intense for quite a while now" with Russian ground forces "attacking the city non-stop" says the city - lying further west - has been shelled by the Russians; at least six have been killed At least three people have been killed in several explosions in the Russian city of Belgorod Vyacheslav Gladkov says dozens of residential buildings were damaged in the blasts This hasn't been independently confirmed We're pausing our live coverage of the war in Ukraine shortly But before we go here's a recap of today's main developments: Today's live page was brought to you by: Aoife Walsh Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingCan we tell how many people have died in the Ukraine war?published at 16:23 British Summer Time 3 July 202216:23 BST 3 July 2022Experts say the total number of recorded deaths so far in the Ukraine war is likely to be a severe underestimation Ukraine and Russia claim the number reaches into the tens of thousands - but their estimations do not match up and cannot be independently verified To try to understand the human cost of the war it is necessary to look at a number of sources national governments and independent monitors Some of our BBC colleagues have been exploring the data Read more here. Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingUS Confirms NASAMS to Ukrainepublished at 15:58 British Summer Time 3 July 202215:58 BST 3 July 2022Chris PartridgeBBC News something that’s been requested for many months The United States will supply the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) as part of the new $820m package of military aid Two NASAMS units will be delivered in this latest deal which also comprises more ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) These multiple launch rocket systems have been supplied with guided precision munitions and according to Ukraine are already having an impact on the battlefield another 150,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition will be sent for the M777 Howitzer heavy guns President Zelensky wants western advanced missiles defence systems to complement and eventually replace its ageing Kyiv has warmly welcomed this latest move. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, external tweeted his thanks to US President Joe Biden and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin describing it as "another significant step in support of Ukraine" Ukraine needs more firepower to defend against Russia’s use of aircraft and missiles Nearly 3,000 missiles alone have been targeted at Ukraine since February 24 and their use has been on the rise in recent weeks Read our investigation tracking the grain shipment from Ukraine to Turkey Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingCould Lysychansk's fall lead to Russians advancing further?published at 15:03 British Summer Time 3 July 202215:03 BST 3 July 2022Sarah RainsfordBBC Eastern Europe Correspondent Claims from Russia that it has taken Lysychansk are still heavily disputed by the Ukrainian side But the reports of Russia capturing Lysychansk began yesterday evening when we started seeing pictures on social media of a group of Chechen fighters who claimed that they were in central Lysychansk and who were celebrating the city’s capture This is an important city because it is the last significant one that has remained under Ukrainian control in the Luhansk region of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine Russian troops will move on further into the Donetsk region and perhaps beyond Moscow now says that the defence minister himself has informed President Putin that “as a result of successful military operations” not only Lysychansk but the whole of the Luhansk region of Donbas is now under Russia’s “full control.” if he wasn’t confident that was the situation on the ground But Ukraine says while there has been intense fighting the city is not yet surrounded Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingSlovyansk a key Russian objectivepublished at 14:40 British Summer Time 3 July 202214:40 BST 3 July 2022Seizing the city of Slovyansk is a key part of the Russian plan to control the entire Donbas region As the BBC's Paul Kirby explains Slovyansk is on the strategic M03 motorway and the city of 125,000 people was captured by Russian-backed forces in 2014 It is the next city in the Russian push westwards in Donbas after the bitter fighting for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk Most Donbas residents have historically close ties to Russia and are Russian-speaking President Vladimir Putin recognised all of Luhansk and Donetsk - together known as Donbas - as independent of Ukraine not just the limited statelets created by Moscow-backed proxies in 2014 That recognition was condemned internationally Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharing'Only empty walls are left'published at 14:21 British Summer Time 3 July 202214:21 BST 3 July 2022Sophie WilliamsReporting from Kyiv We've just spoken with Yuriy Podlesnyi "I only have bad words to describe it," he said claiming that cluster bombs are being fired at the city One building in a residential building was badly damaged The wave of the bomb made it look like no one was living in the apartment "Only empty walls are left," he said At least six people are dead and about 20 are injured Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingHow long can Russians keep going?published at 14:05 British Summer Time 3 July 202214:05 BST 3 July 2022As we've been reporting the Russian defence ministry earlier said its troops have taken full control of Lysychansk Russia specialist Prof Mark Galeotti says Lysychansk's fall to the Russians would enable Putin to say his forces have seized Luhansk - one of the two regions that make up the Donbas Galeotti says if Russia took control of the Donbas and the land corridor to Crimea it will be something Putin “will be able to spin as a victory and probably that is the point at which he would feel comfortable with how the war has gone” He says the Russian's attack on Lysychansk is part of a "slow grinding offensive" and it’s uncertain how much more fighting its force can endure “The key uncertainty is how much metaphorical fuel in the tank have the Russians got how much further will they be able to push their offensive,” he says adding troops “probably will soon be exhausted” Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingAt least six killed in Slovyanskpublished at 13:37 British Summer Time 3 July 202213:37 BST 3 July 2022Sophie WilliamsReporting from Kyiv there has been intense shelling in Slovyansk Donetsk spokesperson Ova Ignatchenko has told Ukrainian media that at least six people have been killed and 15 wounded as a result of the shelling Kramatorsk - just south of Sloviansk - has also come under attack Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are two of the biggest city in the Donetsk region still in Ukrainian hands Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingSlovyansk under intense shelling - mayorpublished at 13:18 British Summer Time 3 July 202213:18 BST 3 July 2022BreakingSophie WilliamsReporting from Kyiv We're also now getting reports that the town of Slovyansk is now being shelled by Russian troops said there are up to 15 fires in the city and claims that a large number of people are injured or dead huge plumes of smoke can be seen behind Lyakh as he speaks to the camera Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRussia accuses Ukraine of missile strike on Belgorodpublished at 12:59 British Summer Time 3 July 202212:59 BST 3 July 2022Image source Rescuers in debris from the Belgorod explosions More now on the explosions that rocked Belgorod a Russian city 40km (25 miles) from the border of northern Ukraine There are contradictory claims from Russia and Ukraine A Russian defence ministry spokesman said air defences had destroyed three Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles with cluster warheads but fragments of one had fallen on an apartment block He also said Russia had shot down two armed Ukrainian drones approaching Kursk The Ukrainian defence ministry denied the Russian claim Spokesman Yuriy Sak told the BBC that "our security service has many times intercepted phone calls between the Russian servicemen which prove that sometimes said rocket debris embedded in a damaged Belgorod apartment block came from a Russian Pantsir anti-aircraft system Several Ukrainians have tweeted a photo allegedly showing that debris In early April, Russia said two Ukrainian helicopters had attacked a civilian oil storage depot on the outskirts of Belgorod, causing a fuel blaze. Video appeared to show missiles hitting the facility The Ukrainian military denied that it was involved Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingAnother setback in the east?published at 12:36 British Summer Time 3 July 202212:36 BST 3 July 2022Jonathan BealeBBC defence correspondent Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence insists that Lysychansk – the last major city it controlled in Luhansk Oblast - is “not under the full control” of Russian forces But there are plenty of videos on social media confirming that they have now entered the city Some also appear to show a handful of locals who stayed behind greeting the Russian forces as “liberators” There’s always been a strong element of pro-Russian sentiment there Lysychansk overlooks Severodonetsk – which has already been taken by the Russians But the noose around the city has been tightening with Russian forces now controlling most access in and out Ukraine’s commanders will have had to make the difficult decision to fight on with the potential of large casualties and their remaining forces being surrounded Or to withdraw troops to fight another day Some units had already pulled back to the next lines of defence over the past week Ukrainian officials have been unusually quiet about what’s been happening in the city be explained by “operational security” reasons They would not want to broadcast any tactical retreat – if that is what’s been happening But losing Lysychansk would also be seen as another setback in the East it’s by no means the end of the fighting in the Donbas Ukraine still controls large urban areas in neighbouring Donetsk Oblast Their forces have been preparing new defensive lines between Bakhmut and Slovyansk - though they too are now coming under heavy Russian shelling Both sides have been taking heavy casualties The question now is whether Ukraine can halt the advance and whether Russia can maintain the momentum He says there are “other large cities in the Donbas area in particular in the Donetsk region” that are under control of Ukrainian armed forces “These are cities that for the last couple of days [have been] targets of severe missile attacks “but the battle for the Donbas is not over yet” Sak adds that Ukraine is hopeful and is receiving support from its western allies He says Ukraine will eventually accumulate a sufficient number of heavy artillery and other types of weaponry "that will allow us to liberate our lands" Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLysychansk not under the 'full control' of Russian forces - Ukrainepublished at 11:17 British Summer Time 3 July 202211:17 BST 3 July 2022Ukrainian defence ministry spokesman Yuriy Sak has told the BBC that the city of Lysychansk is not under the "full control" of Russian forces despite Moscow's claims that the city has fallen But he added that the situation in the city had been "very intense for quite a while now" with Russian ground forces "attacking the city non-stop" so sometimes we may retreat from certain areas so that we can retake them in the future," he added Russia's defence minister says he told Russian President Vladimir Putin that the entire region of Luhansk has been "liberated" Ukraine's military has not yet responded - and the BBC has not been able to independently verify these claims Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRussian troops surround Lysychansk - reportspublished at 10:10 British Summer Time 3 July 202210:10 BST 3 July 2022BreakingRussian troops have surrounded the eastern Ukrainian city of Lysychansk Ukraine's last major stronghold in the Luhansk region the TASS news agency cites the Russian defence ministry as saying This has not been confirmed by Ukraine's military Russia has been focussed on driving Ukrainian forces out of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in the Donbas That's where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Kyiv since Russia's first military intervention in Ukraine in 2014 Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingThe teachers educating from the trenchespublished at 09:56 British Summer Time 3 July 202209:56 BST 3 July 2022Sophie WilliamsReporting from Kyiv A number of teachers are managing to continue their classes online from the trenches You can read more here Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingUkrainian forces pound Russian base in Melitopol - exiled mayorpublished at 09:29 British Summer Time 3 July 202209:29 BST 3 July 2022The mayor of Melitopol says Ukrainian armed forces have launched 30 strikes and destroyed one of four Russian military bases located in the city the Russian-installed authorities there said only some houses in the vicinity of the airport had been damaged Mayor Ivanov denied the Russia account as “provocation” was one of the first to fall to the Russians Vyacheslav Gladkov says at least 11 apartment blocks and 39 houses were damaged Writing on Telegram he says: "We are currently trying to establish the circumstances of the incident The anti-aircraft defences were in operation" The governor's statement could not be independently confirmed and there was no immediate reaction from Ukraine Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine A Russian missile strike hit a shopping mall in a residential area of Kremenchuk likely killing many civilians.[1] Ukrainian sources stated that over 1,000 civilians were inside the mall at the time of the strike and officials are still clarifying the number of casualties.[2] The Kremenchuk strike follows a wider intensification of Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets in recent days Advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs Vadym Denisenko stated on June 26 that Russian forces have begun a campaign of massive and largely indiscriminate missile strikes against Ukrainian cities which echoes statements made by an unnamed US defense official on June 27 that Russian forces are increasingly relying on artillery and missile strikes to advance operations in Ukraine.[3] As Russian forces continue to burn through their supply of high-precision weaponry such attacks that cause substantial collateral civilian damage will likely escalate.[4] Russian military authorities continue to seek ways to replenish their increasingly exhausted force capabilities without announcing general mobilization An unnamed senior US defense official stated on June 27 that Russian forces are likely running low on senior military leaders and are relying more heavily on retired officers and reserves to replace officer casualties.[5] The UK Ministry of Defense similarly reported that Russian forces will likely rely heavily on reserve echelons namely the Combat Army Reserve (BARS) and Human Mobilization Resource in order to galvanize volunteer support and fill out the third battalion tactical group (BTG) within regular (and depleted) brigades.[6] As ISW has previously assessed such reserves are unlikely to provide Russian forces with meaningful regeneration of force capabilities Click here to enlarge the map Click here to enlarge the map Russian forces made marginal advances southwest of Lysychansk on June 27 but have not yet entirely severed Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the city situated just south of the Lysychansk Gelatin Plant Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai called on Lysychansk residents to evacuate from the city indicating Ukrainian forces retain control of at least some GLOCs to the city.[9] Russian Telegram channels continue to claim that Russian forces have established “fire control” (likely meaning successfully interdicting Ukrainian movement) along Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk on the Siversk-Bilohorivka road Ukrainian forces continued to resist Russian advances towards the T1302 to the east of Bakhmut on June 27 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force attempts around Yakovlivka all along the T1302 highway within 30 km northeast of Bakhmut.[11] Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions in Bilohorivka also likely in an effort to sever the GLOC by forcing Ukrainian forces out of settlements along the T1302.[12] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported ongoing fighting in Klynove where Russian forces are attempting to gain a foothold on the E40 highway to Slovyansk.[13] Ukrainian forces reportedly repulsed Russian assaults on Klynove but confirmed that Russian forces continued advancing in settlements just west of the E40.[14] Ukrainian forces also likely used recently US-provided HIMARS rocket artillery systems to strike a Russian ammunition depot approximately 60 km east in Russian-controlled territory in Luhansk Oblast.[15]  Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk on June 27 Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov reported that Ukrainian forces resisted Russian attacks in Mazanivka and Dolyna along the E40.[16] Russian offensive operations have been largely stalled around the Izyum axis since Russian shifted their focus to secure the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area The UK Defense Ministry noted that heavy shelling around Izyum may indicate Russian attempts to “regain momentum” along this axis but Russian forces will likely need to deprioritize advances in Luhansk Oblast to resume offensive operations north of Slovyansk.[17] Russian forces did not attempt to launch a ground assault on settlements in the Slovyansk or Siversk areas from Lyman.[18]  Click here to enlarge the map Russian forces conducted localized but unsuccessful assaults on settlements northwest and southeast of Kharkiv City Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks against Pytomnyk and Dementiivka both situated along the E105 Kharkiv-Belgorod City highway.[19] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repulsed Russian attacks in Dovhalivka and Zalyman approximately 90km southeast of Kharkiv City in the direction of Izyum.[20] Russian forces also reportedly continued remote mining and radio-technical reconnaissance in settlements around Kharkiv City likely in an effort to disrupt any attempted Ukrainian counterattacks.[21] Former Russian Federal Security Service officer and milblogger Igor Girkin (Strelkov) claimed that Russian forces presently lack the strength or motivation to launch offensive operations in northern and central Kharkiv Oblast but are likely to continue defending occupied positions as a “springboard” for potential future attacks against Kharkiv City.[22]  Click here to enlarge the map Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the Southern Axis on June 27.[23] Ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Kherson-Mykolaiv border are likely successfully pressuring Russian defenses An unnamed US defense official stated that Ukrainian troops liberated “several” unidentified settlements in Kherson Oblast over the weekend and the Head of Ukraine’s Southern Defense Force Joint Coordinating Press Center stated that Russian forces are continuing to prepare and strengthen second and third defensive lines in Kherson Oblast due to persistent Ukrainian counteroffensives in the area.[24] Russian forces once again unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions in Potomkyne in northern Kherson Oblast.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces may carry out assault operations in unspecified areas to reach the Kherson Oblast border.[26] This statement indicates that Russian troops may hope to eventually counteract Ukrainian advances on the Southern Axis and regain more advantageous positions although their prospects for successfully doing so are ultimately unclear considering their generally-degraded force capabilities Russian forces conducted air strikes against Ukrainian positions in Kherson Oblast artillery strikes against various locations in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts and a missile attack against residential infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.[27] Ukrainian forces continued strikes on the Russian grouping in Snake Island likely in order to complicate Russian attempts to consolidate their presence in and control of the northwestern Black Sea.[28] Russian authorities continued to take measures to strengthen the economic integration of occupied areas into Russian systems on June 27 stimulating long term integration into the Russian economy [1] RU forces launched a missile strike on a shopping center IVO Kremenchuk on JUN 27 https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/2255; https://t.me/stranaua/49204; https://t.me/stranaua/49202; https://t.me/stranaua/49195 https://t.me/stranaua/49201; https://t.me/stranaua/49193 https://t.me/stranaua/49194; https://t.me/stranaua/49189; https://t.me/stranaua/49182; https://t.me/spravdi/11759; https://t.me/DMYTROLUNIN/2699; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3825; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3824 [2] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-missiles-hit-kremenchuk-shopping-center-1000-civilians-ukraine-rcna35482; https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/2255; https://t.me/DMYTROLUNIN/2699 [3] https://t.me/stranaua/49100; https://ru.espreso dot tv/rossiyane-izmenili-strategiyu-obstrelov-i-massovo-obstrelivayut-ukrainskie-goroda-sovetnik-ministra-mvd-denisenko; https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1541434677860384771 [4] https://t.me/stranaua/49100; https://ru.espreso dot tv/rossiyane-izmenili-strategiyu-obstrelov-i-massovo-obstrelivayut-ukrainskie-goroda-sovetnik-ministra-mvd-denisenko   [5] https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1541433519565639683 [6] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1541295716823441408/photo/1 [7] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3787?single [8] https://t.me/rybar/34452; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1541442993718280194; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100; https://t.me/mod_russia/17201 [10] https://t.me/rybar/34452; https://t.me/strelkovii/2804 [11]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl;  https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl [12]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl [13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl; https://t.me/readovkanews/37566 [14] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100 [16] https://t.me/synegubov/3502; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl [17] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1541295716823441408/photo/1 [18]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100 [20] https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1541453286577999872?cxt=HHwWgMC4hZzmq-QqAAAA; https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1541452411885199362?cxt=HHwWhICxiaezq-QqAAAA; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09QA4MGcSeuiyUxt2YUgihsx7mqj1PhiDWBq31NoG4n94G2Q2FMzFfi4gG5CGEtksl [21]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl; https://t.me/rybar/34446; https://t.me/synegubov/3502; https://t.me/spravdi/11705 [23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0QSxsizTGBYptAmPn8pF3emh7MVWL8XZv95jFopTmEtUsVb3jV5qYfXdtL7EG3tNVl; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2830474810429777; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=568886191484490 [24] https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1541430127237668867; https://www dot pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/06/27/7354968/; https://www dot unian.net/war/ukrainskie-voennye-prodolzhayut-medlenno-ottesnyat-vraga-na-yuge-gumenyuk-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11881407.html; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/27/bryfing-nachalnyka-obyednanogo-koordynaczijnogo-presczentru-syl-oborony-pivdnya-ukrayiny/ [25] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=568886191484490 [26] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/349573180689100 [27] https://t.me/spravdi/11705; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2830474810429777; https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1541195872956026880; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=568886191484490 [28] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2830474810429777; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/27/zmiyinyj-ukrayinski-vijskovi-zavdaly-po-ostrovu-ponad-10-vluchnyh-urazhen/; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=619914819117980; https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1541389394573201409 [29] https://t.me/stranaua/49090 ; https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0oNbbNUMM5gaAoar4YJkrmth6L2PPrXsczvHeJmBSXfoiuoktmdqCxxvBunoSXWAwl&id=100028374940771 [30] https://t.me/stranaua/49090 ; https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0oNbbNUMM5gaAoar4YJkrmth6L2PPrXsczvHeJmBSXfoiuoktmdqCxxvBunoSXWAwl&id=100028374940771 [31] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2830474810429777 Russia said Sunday the death toll from a Ukrainian strike on a bakery in the occupied eastern city of Lysychansk climbed to 28 people The strike hit almost two years into Russia's grinding offensive in Ukraine where the front has barely moved in months but attacks have intensified this winter Moscow's occupation forces Saturday said Kyiv struck a building that housed a bakery popular with locals on weekends Ukraine has not yet commented on the strike Lysychansk is a city in the occupied Luhansk region that fell to Russian forces after one of the most brutal battles during Moscow's long offensive in summer 2022 it had a population of around 110,000 people "Search operations continue on the site of the collapsed bakery.. have died," the Russian emergency situations ministry posted on Telegram Occupational authorities in Luhansk said there were 18 men Russia released images of an almost completely destroyed building with rescuers combing the rubble in the dark where they found a corpse and a wounded woman who was evacuated on a stretcher The one-story building had a large sign on it that read "Restaurant Adriatic." Russia alleged Saturday that Ukraine had used Western weapons in the strike and said it expected swift and "unconditional condemnation" from the international community the Ukrainian army's daily report said aviation "struck 12 areas where enemy personnel were concentrated." It also said its forces "struck one area of enemy concentration." Rescuers have so far saved 10 people from the wreckage according to the Russian emergencies ministry The Russian-installed health minister of the occupational Luhansk government said they were brought to medical facilities in the main city of Luhansk She said four of them are in "the most critical state" while two others are in a "severe state." The city of Luhansk has been under pro-Russian separatist control since 2014 declared a day of mourning in the Russian-held region and vowed retaliation against Ukraine said Sunday that its forces repelled 27 Russian attacks near Avdiivka — which Russia has tried to capture for months — and the nearby village of Novokalynove Russia has tried to seize the industrial city — which has been a symbol of Ukrainian resistance after it briefly fell to Moscow-backed separatists in 2014 — since October Russian forces control territory to the north Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier this week that Moscow's forces "reached the outskirts of Avdiivka." Ukraine has said its forces are holding out with footage from Avdiivka showing a city of ruins Ukrainian forces likely conducted a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk resulting in the Russian seizure of the city on July 2 Geolocated footage showed Russian forces casually walking around northern and southeastern neighborhoods in Lysychansk in a way that suggests that there are few or no remaining Ukrainian forces in the city as of July 2.[1] Ukrainian military officials did not publicly announce a troop withdrawal but neither did they report on defensive battles around Lysychansk Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Vadym Denysenko vaguely noted that Russian forces have a “high probability” of capturing Lysychansk but that they will have a difficult time advancing in Donetsk Oblast past Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.[2] Ukrainian National Guard Spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk rejected reports of Russian forces seizing and encircling Lysychansk but these denials are likely outdated or erroneous.[3] The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia had previously claimed that Ukrainian forces began withdrawing from Lysychansk on June 28.[4] ISW will continue to monitor the situation Russian forces will likely establish control over the remaining territory of Luhansk Oblast in the coming days and will likely then prioritize drives on Ukrainian positions in Siversk before turning to Slovyansk and Bakhmut A Ukrainian withdrawal to Siversk would allow Ukrainian forces reduce the risk of immediate encirclement but Ukrainian forces may continue a fighting withdrawal to a line near the E40 highway from Slovyansk to Bakhmut The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov inspected Russian troop groupings in Ukraine on July 2.[5] The Russian MoD posted a slideshow of images that reportedly prove that Gerasimov still holds his position as Chief of General Staff and that he had recently been in Ukraine but notably did not include any video footage of Gerasimov’s purported inspection of Russian troops This post was likely a response to recent speculation that Gerasimov had been removed from his post as part of the Kremlin’s purge of high-level Russian military leadership due to Russian failures in Ukraine The Kremlin likely also seeks to retain or rebuild trust in Russian military leadership against the backdrop of major organizational restructuring Click here to enlarge the map Click here to enlarge the map Click here to enlarge the map Russian forces entered Lysychansk and advanced within the city on July 2 likely after Ukrainian forces conducted a controlled withdrawal from the city Kremlin-sponsored outlet RIA Novosti claimed that Russian forces seized Lysychansk but it is unclear if Russian forces fully cleared and secured the city.[8] Geolocated footage showed Russian forces hanging a red banner in Lysychansk‘s city center and walking around the city’s northern neighborhood.[9] Chechen units also advanced to the southeastern part of Lysychansk with geolocated footage showing them outside the Lysychansk City Council building.[10] The footage in both areas shows Russian forces freely walking around the city and taking group photos suggesting that Ukrainian defenders had already withdrawn Ukrainian officials did not announce a withdrawal from Lysychansk but the Ukrainian General Staff notably did not discuss any Ukrainian defensive activity around Lysychansk.[11] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed earlier in the day that Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian forces in Lysychansk and noted that Chechen units were preparing for street fights and full-scale attack to seize the city but then announced that Russian forces had captured the city in full.[12] The inconsistencies in Kadyrov’s claims may suggest that Russian forces expected to face remaining Ukrainian resistance in the city but found that the Ukrainians had instead withdrawn Russian forces continued to launch assaults southwest of Lysychansk likely in an effort to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative borders and push towards Ukrainian positions in Siversk The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Russian forces established positions in Verkhnokamyanka situated approximately 15km southwest of Lysychansk and just 13km east of Siversk.[13] The successful assault also implies that Russian forces blocked the northeastern part of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway (which ISW has assessed Ukraine has been unable to use as a major GLOC for some time) The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian reconnaissance-in-force around Berestove approximately 18km southeast of Siversk and 26km northeast of Bakhmut.[14] Recurrent Russian offensive and reconnaissance operations around Berestove and west of Lysychansk suggest that Russian forces may prioritize a drive on Siversk over an immediate attack on Bakhmut The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) also posted footage outside of the Pryvillya welcome sign and a satellite image of a Russian pontoon bridge confirms that Russian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets River just southeast of Kreminna.[15] The LNR Militia also repeated previous Russian claims that Russian forces seized Shepilove on July 1.[16] Russian forces will likely also push on Siversk from the Pryvillya area now that they have advanced to Lysychansk itself Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk on July 2 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces resisted a Russian assault on Bohorodychne approximately 20km northwest of Slovyansk.[17] Slovyansk Mayor Vadym Lyakh reported that Russian forces shelled Slovyansk on the night of July 1 and Russian Telegram channel Voproste published footage of Russian forces reportedly using incendiary munitions against Ukrainian positions in the Slovyansk direction.[18] Geolocated combat footage additionally showed Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones and artillery in Sulyhivka (approximately 20 km east of Bohorodychne) on July 1 likely as part of continued Ukrainian counterattacks southwest of Izyum.[19] Russian forces resumed unsuccessful and limited attacks southwest of Donetsk City and continued artillery fire and airstrikes around Avdiivka.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance to Novomykhailivka.[21] Click here to enlarge the map Ukrainian forces plan to continue to threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) running from Belgorod to southern Kharkiv Oblast with Western-supplied long-range rocket artillery The Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Kraken Special Unit stated that Ukrainian forces will use US-provided HIMARS rocket artillery systems to disrupt Russian GLOCs running through Vovchansk Kupyansk is a significant logistical hub for Russian forces operating on the Kharkiv axis and is located approximately 50km from the frontline Vovchansk lies approximately 15-20 km from the frontline but Russian operations in northern Kharkiv have prevented Ukrainian forces from targeting Vovchansk with indirect fire thus far Russian GLOCs to Izyum are the most exposed approximately 15km east of the nearest frontline and NASA FIRMS heat anomaly detection has observed heat anomalies consistent with indirect fire attacks in wooded areas west of Izyum in recent weeks Most Russian major ammunition depots and support stations along the Kharkiv axis would be within the range of HIMARS systems that would cover the Kharkiv axis Russian forces continued localized and unsuccessful assaults northwest of Kharkiv City on June 1 The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Dementiivka approximately 25km northwest of Kharkiv City.[22] Russian forces are reportedly using electronic warfare systems in settlements on the international border likely aimed at disrupting systems at Ukrainian command and control centers.[23] Click here to enlarge the map Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the Southern Axis on July 2.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian counteroffensive activity forced Russian troops to withdraw from previously-held positions in Ivanivka (northwestern Kherson Oblast).[25] Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are preparing occupied settlements for ”circular” defense which indicates that Russian troops are likely engineering 360-degree fortifications in occupied territory.[26] Ukrainian partisan and counteroffensive activities continue to pressure Russian forces to prioritize defensive operations likely at the expense of Russian forces pursuing territorial gains in southern Ukraine.[27] Russian forces conducted air and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions and infrastructure in Kherson Mobilization and force generation efforts (Russian objective: expand combat power without conducting general mobilization) Russian military leadership continues to rely on ad hoc composite units to support offensive operations in Ukraine Russian media reported on July 2 that a volunteer battalion of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Northern Fleet is preparing to deploy to Ukraine.[29] This battalion consists of reservists which likely means that the volunteers are inadequately trained and do not have the requisite infantry experience to be effective in high-intensity combat Some of the servicemembers of the battalion notably fought in the early stages of the war and are being redeployed.[30] The composite nature of this battalion indicates that Russian military leadership continues to struggle with proper and consistent constitution of combat-ready units Proxy leadership may be setting conditions for the direct annexation of proxy republics into the Russian Federation Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin announced on July 2 that he replaced four DNR public administration officials with “experienced” Russian ministers in order to institute the “Russian paradigm of public administration.”[31] Pushilin had previously announced the reorganization of the DNR government in June The measures taken to streamline the governmental practices and frameworks of the DNR with the Russian system suggest that proxy officials are likely preparing to integrate the DNR directly into the Russian Federation.[32] [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icEQhgMdT8U&t=514s&ab_channel=%D0%A0%D0%91%D0%9A-%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D0%B0 [3] https://www dot pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/07/2/7355994/ [5] https://www dot bfm dot ru/news/503595 [6] https://t.me/mod_russia/17339; https://t.me/mod_russia/17331 [7] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21 [9] https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1543176243398557696; https://twitter.com/AyazK100/status/1543187076853555200; https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1543213343233785856; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/7830; https://t.me/millnr/9033; https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1543248682329509890 [10] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1543297826133889027 ; https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1543286403357847553; https://twitter.com/AyazK100/status/1543148783344660488; https://twitter.com/AyazK100/status/1543148783344660488 [11]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl; [13]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl [14]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl [15] https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1543257383199186944; https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1542961774676398091; https://t.me/millnr/9032 [17]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02FgozgAcN5uCV97HV2WntNenUTg5S7aF8ZtBvH7gUej8jkaH3FSib3igsRgKPxbmvl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl; https://t.me/synegubov/3539 [18] https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/14813; https://t.me/vorposte/23696 [19] https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1542964386205138945; https://twitter.com/JoshuaKoontz__/status/1542984666055073792 [20]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02FgozgAcN5uCV97HV2WntNenUTg5S7aF8ZtBvH7gUej8jkaH3FSib3igsRgKPxbmvl [21]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl [22]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl [23]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02FgozgAcN5uCV97HV2WntNenUTg5S7aF8ZtBvH7gUej8jkaH3FSib3igsRgKPxbmvl [24]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=580084696863289; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1072673846665815; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02FgozgAcN5uCV97HV2WntNenUTg5S7aF8ZtBvH7gUej8jkaH3FSib3igsRgKPxbmvl [25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uYvAvrDSWUV1kmjtB7mMj4XvQB6JZMqn13M8fj7ctsNg8DYTBprV8DWmH7997rYnl [29] https://m.vk dot com/wall-123538639_2747743 [30] https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1543195360977461248 Looking to access paid articles across multiple policy topics Interested in policy insights for EU professional organisations Ukrainian forces are facing “massive” and relentless artillery attacks in a battleground eastern city of Lysychansk as Russian troops gained ground throughout the Donbas region The twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk where the Russian army has concentrated attacks in recent days Not good at all — Russians have made some dangerous territorial gains south of Lysychansk, getting further to closing the Zolote pocket and also threatening the Severodonetsk grouping’s rear.The fight continues. pic.twitter.com/hU9JgvIUvH Lithuania has partly closed rail transit of Russian goods to and from its exclave of Kaliningrad saying it was enacting EU sanctions but the move has angered Moscow igniting fears over the so-called Suwałki Gap has contributed an explainer about the issue