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Russian occupiers shelled several settlements in Donetsk region on May 5
One person was killed and six others were injured
This was announced by the head of the Donetsk Oblast Administration
the village of Novoekonomichne and the cities of Myrnograd and Novodonetsk came under Russian shelling today
Russians killed one person in Novoekonomichesky
Among the wounded in Novodonetske are a 2-year-old girl and a 10-year-old boy
today the regional authorities have established information regarding 5 people whom the Russians killed yesterday during their attacks
It is noted that 4 people aged 47 to 68 died in the Roza Pokrovska community
Another person who died yesterday was a 40-year-old resident of Myrnograd
especially parents with children: take care of yourself and your loved ones
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Russian forces attacked several settlements in Ukraine’s Donetsk region on May 5
killing one person and injuring six others
head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration
The attacks targeted the village of Novoeconomichne and the towns of Myrnohrad and Novodonetske
"Russian forces killed one person in Novoeconomichne
and another three in Novodonetske," Filashkin said
Among those injured in Novodonetske were a 2-year-old girl and a 10-year-old boy
local authorities have confirmed the deaths of five people killed in Russian attacks a day earlier
Four civilians aged 47 to 68 were killed in the village of Roza
Another person killed yesterday was a 40-year-old resident of Myrnohrad
especially parents with children: protect yourselves and your loved ones
Evacuate to safer regions of Ukraine," Filashkin appealed
Russian troops continue to heavily bombard the settlements of the Donetsk region using a range of weapons
Russia launched a massive drone attack on Sloviansk
hitting a construction facility with six Geran-2 drones
Earlier, on April 26, <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russians-launch-nine-strikes-on-kostiantynivka-1745750946.html">Russian forces struck the city of Kostiantynivka nine times</a> using KAB-250 aerial bombs and drones
Russian troops also targeted a convoy of vehicles evacuating civilians from a village near Kostiantynivka
Earlier, a <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-drops-551-lbs-bomb-on-ukrainian-house-1745574172.html">Russian aerial bomb hit a house</a> in the village of Yarova
(Photo: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images)Ukraine’s large-scale counteroffensive
spearheaded by new Western tanks and armored vehicles
No longer limited to shaping operations or localized counterattacks
evidence shows the beginning of major Ukrainian offensive pushes to break through fortified Russian lines along several axes
Though Ukraine’s offensive operations are still in their early days, the two main axes of attack look to both be on the <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/on-ukraines-southern-front-line-tension-in-the-air-before-decisive-counteroffensive/">southern front line</a> stretching from the Dnipro River across Zaporizhzhia Oblast to western Donetsk Oblast
The first reports came on June 5, when Russian sources <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reports-ukrainian-ground-attacks-in-donetsk-oblast-in-possible-launch-of-counteroffensive/">reported</a> Ukrainian attacks around the village of Novodonetske
in the sector between Velyka Novosilka and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast
Vuhledar was the site of a large failed Russian offensive in winter
On June 8, a new Ukrainian attempted advance was <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/western-media-ukraine-launched-its-long-awaited-counteroffensive/">reported</a> further west, near the town of Orikhiv. 
Photo and video material quickly emerged on social media of several damaged and destroyed Ukrainian vehicles in the area, including Leopard 2 tanks, indicating that the first major Ukrainian attack with new Western equipment likely ended in failure, though the size of the force committed to the attack was unclear.
While no Ukrainian gains were verified on the Orikhiv axis in the days following this attack, Ukrainian forces instead found more success pushing ahead south of Velyka Novosilka. 
Advancing steadily along both banks of the narrow Mokri Yaly River, Ukrainian units liberated a chain of villages, including Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Storozheve, and Makarivka. 
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On the evening of June 12, the liberation of these villages and three others in other sectors were confirmed by Deputy Defense Minsiter Hanna Maliar, who <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ukraine-liberates-7-settlements-regains-90-square-kilometers-over-past-week/">reported</a> a total advance of 6.5 kilomteres in the area
the Ukrainian military continues to report successful counterattacks around Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast
which was finally taken by Russian forces in late May after 10 months of brutal fighting
“What we are seeing is definitely the beginning of the counteroffensive,” said military expert and senior fellow at the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute Rob Lee to the Kyiv Independent
“I think it&#x27;s going about as well as expected; they&#x27;re taking losses but they&#x27;re making gains as well,” he said
“A combined arms breach is one of the most difficult things to do in warfare
and they (Ukraine) are doing that without air superiority
they&#x27;re doing it without certain advantages that a military would want to have.” 
In this first week of the counteroffensive
social media has been flooded with a flurry of images and videos
which threaten to quickly and inaccurately shape perception of how the operation is going on both sides
photos of soldiers posing with Ukrainian flags in newly-liberated settlements
as well as the traditional drone footage of strikes on enemy armored vehicles
whilst the images spread by Russian sources of destroyed Leopards and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles feed a narrative of the failure of Western equipment to break through Russian lines
in a manner similar to Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast in September
the earliest available information on Ukrianian attacks has mostly come from Russian “milblogger” Telegram channels
some of which are connected to official Russian media outlets and others who are more “independent” commentators
but have built a reputation of reporting on front-line developments more honestly and accurately than the official Kremlin line
Photo and video material posted of the battles in question
both by Russian milbloggers and by the social media channels of Ukrainian brigades
are then usually examined and verified by members of the open-source intelligence (OSINT) community
has confirmed the liberation of settlements by Ukrainian forces not long after they have occured
has maintained a policy of overall silence
A <a href="https://t.me/DIUkraine/2405">video</a> posted on June 11 by Ukrainian military intelligence showed the agency’s chief Kyrylo Budanov staring silently into the camera for thirty seconds
before the text “To be continued… Plans love silence” came on screen
Meanwhile, in Moscow, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin came out unexpectedly early to comment on the Ukrainian counteroffensive, <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/09/putin-says-ukrainian-counteroffensive-failed-to-reach-goals-a81469">saying</a> on June 9 that Ukrainian forces had not achieved any of their aims in their attacks
According to political scientist Aleksandar Djokic
Putin’s surprise commentary is evidence that he has been assured by his military
led by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valerii Gerasimov
“This means that the army leadership takes full responsibility for what happens next,” Djokic wrote on Twitter
“They will be scapegoated if Ukraine reaches even a moderate success.” 
Of Kyiv’s two attacks along the southern line
it is in the eastern sector around Velyka Novosilka where Ukrainian forces have made significant gains as of June 13
Reports from both sides show Ukrainian units successfully pushing directly south of the front-line town
Though some Russian sources initially claimed successful counterattacks around Makarivka, the liberation of the village was <a href="https://fb.watch/l7ZGI3fzvJ/">confirmed</a> by Ukraine’s 35th Marine Brigade on the morning of June 13
Ukraine also reported to have liberated the village of Novodarivka
with reports that Kyiv had also taken neighboring Rivnopil
The next targets in Ukraine’s path look to be the twin settlements of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine
reported on the morning of June 13 that fighting was ongoing
Ukraine’s advances in this area have been significant
they have yet to reach the main line of prepared Russian defenses
which will likely prove a greater challenge
Analysis of satellite imagery of recently-built Russian <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/where-does-russia-expect-ukraines-counterattack-overview-of-defensive-lines/">fortifications</a> on the southern front line shows the main line of Russian defense starting around 12 kilometers further down the Mokri Yaly
the real test for Ukraine’s prospects of making a breakthrough will begin
“It appears the Russian forces are defending pretty competently so far
but it&#x27;s really hard to measure the attrition component,” he said
“I think what Russia wants to do is to attrit Ukrainian units as much as possible as they advance to the main defensive line so that they don&#x27;t have enough forces to breach it once they arrive.”
Several days after Ukrainian forces first advanced near Velyka Novosilka
a separate offensive was reported further west in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
pushing south from the front-line town of Orikhiv
aiming towards the occupied cities of Tokmak and Melitopol
has long been touted as the area in which a Ukrainian counteroffensive could make the most strategic gains
being the shortest and most straightforward path towards cutting off Russian forces’ land connection to occupied Crimea
Given these expectations, this area is also where Russian fortifications are <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/where-does-russia-expect-ukraines-counterattack-overview-of-defensive-lines/">assessed to be their strongest</a>
with several defensive lines consisting of minefields
while key settlements like Tokmak are surrounded on all sides by more trenches
It was from this attack, <a href="https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1668193661597761536">geolocated</a> to a field just eight kilometers south of Orikhiv
that grim pictures were posted by Russian sources showing several German-built Leopard 2 tanks
and Leopard 2R breaching vehicles lying destroyed in the field
According to Lee and other independent analysts
the appearance of equipment like the Leopards and Bradleys is proof that Ukraine has sent in at least some of its newly-prepared brigades
many of which boast Western equipment and NATO-trained personnel
“The 47th Brigade which was in the Orikhiv area
they have the Bradleys and the Leopards; they have good equipment
they have a lot of breaching equipment,” said Lee
but it was an attempt at a very difficult part of the front.”
it is still too early to say whether or not Ukraine will launch fresh attacks south of Orikhiv
“It made sense to try and advance in different directions of the front
and not all those were going to be successful,” added Lee
“It makes sense that when they do have success for the Ukrainians to exploit that and to back it with more resources.”
As Ukraine strikes in the south, counterattacks are also continuing at the site of the fiercest fighting of the war, around the city of <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/bakhmut/">Bakhmut</a>
Ukrainian forces have advanced a total of 3.5 kilometers on the right (southern) flank of Bakhmut and 1.5 kilometers on the left (northern) flank over the last week
These attacks have been ongoing for more than a month, starting before Russian forces led by the Wagner mercenary group had even <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/russia-takes-bakhmut-taking-stock-of-the-wars-bloodiest-battle-so-far/">completed</a> the capture of Bakhmut itself
At the peak of the conflict between Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry
Russian regular forces which had recently taken control of positions on the flanks of the city were reported to have fled in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks
Ukrainian gains continue to be led by the brigades already stationed in the area
advances have been spearheaded by the Third Assault Brigade
which was established in November last year from units of the the Azov Special Operations Forces
Active on social media, the brigade and its service members continue to post <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M74HD_hI45A">videos</a> of allegedly successful assaults towards the town of Klishchiivka to the southwest of Bakhmut
Pegov wrote on June 12 that Ukrainian forces had reached the village of Berkhivka just four kilometers north of Bakhmut
The site of very slow grinding Russian advances for over a year
the area around Bakhmut does not present the same opportunities for a strategic Ukrainian breakthrough as the southern front does
Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/land-forces-chief-says-ukraine-close-to-bakhmuts-tactical-encirclement/">said</a> back on May 21 that Ukrainian forces were approaching the “tactical encirclement of Bakhmut.” 
inching to the last streets of Bakhmut was Russia’s only major victory since summer last year
and losing it immediately would be seen as a major embarrassment for the military
to whom Prigozhin left the city when he pulled Wagner troops out in early June
Ukraine’s attacks along the southern front line have signaled the beginning of the counteroffensive
but the peak of its intensity could still be weeks away
In a June 11 <a href="https://cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-offensive-has-started-wait-for-the-heavy-brigades/">article</a> entitled “Think Ukraine’s Offensive Has Started
Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges emphasized the fact that most of Ukraine’s well-armed reserve force has not yet appeared on the battlefield
“The photos that we saw from the Orikhiv axis
maybe two companies of vehicles they lost,” said Lee
plus some other National Guard brigades and other units in reverse.”
“It&#x27;s a small fraction of the entire force
it&#x27;s important to keep in perspective that just because you have some tactical reverses does not mean the counteroffensive has failed,” he added
Kyiv is still holding the bulk of the force back
waiting to commit it to a certain axis of attack judged by early attacks to be the most favorable
“If Ukraine sees Russian reserves being moved from one part of the front to another
maybe they will decide to commit elsewhere,” said Lee
that might leave them vulnerable in another area
and might lead Ukraine to a different direction of advance.”
The choice to commit is one of incredibly high stakes
The more forces committed to a Ukrainian offensive push
the better chance of achieving the kind of breakthrough required
but the more painful and costly defeat will be if Russian fortified lines hold firm
It is unknown exactly when the decision to commit will be made
the signs on the battlefield will be clear
“At some point they&#x27;ll commit the rest of their reserves
There might be certain conditions that they are waiting for that aren&#x27;t clear to us,” he said
we&#x27;ve seen Ukraine conduct open warfare once sufficient attrition has happened to Russian forces
a lot of Ukrainian artillery strikes; maybe at some point
this weakens or degrades Russian units enough that the conditions for advancing in a particular direction will appear.”
when a large Ukrainian force likely consisting of at least half a dozen brigades is seen assaulting Russia’s main defensive line
can early conclusions be made about the success of the ongoing counteroffensive
“This offensive is going to be going on for weeks and months
and it is too early to say how it will pan out.”
Hi, this is Francis Farrell, the author of this early analysis of Ukraine&#x27;s much-awaited counteroffensive. At the Kyiv Independent and all over Ukraine, we had all been waiting for this counteroffensive to start, understanding why success is crucial for Ukraine&#x27;s future. Whatever the outcome though, we are not going anywhere. <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/membership/">Please consider supporting our reporting</a>
ShareSaveComment<a class="isDg-4PG" href="https://www.forbes.com/business/" data-ga-track="breadcrumb-L2">Business</a><a class="isDg-4PG _2XNbdi6I" href="https://www.forbes.com/aerospace-defense/" data-ga-track="breadcrumb-L3">Aerospace &amp; Defense</a>At The Bleeding Edge Of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive, The Ukrainian Marine Corps Switches Up Its TacticsBy<a class="_4tin10wS YbfXuVMn" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/" rel="noreferrer" target="_self">David Axe</a>
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#article-stream-0 .headline-embed .font-size{font-size: 54px;}37th Marine Brigade M-ATVs
And they’re doing it without the support of Ukraine’s heaviest brigades
The apparent absence of tank and mechanized brigades with Leopard 2 tanks strongly implies that the attacks are reconnaissance probes
The Ukrainians seem to be testing Russian defenses in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts
looking for weaknesses that nearby heavy brigades can exploit
is they can preserve their main force—and wait to deploy it at the place and time where it stands the greatest chance of marching deep into Russian-held southern Ukraine
near the border of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk
the Ukrainian navy’s 37th Marine Brigade is switching up its tactics in order to compensate for a lack of tanks
What Khodakovsky described are classic mechanized infantry tactics, <a href="https://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/FM7-7%2885%29.pdf" target="_blank" class="color-link" title="https://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/FM7-7%2885%29.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/FM7-7%2885%29.pdf" aria-label="as detailed">as detailed</a> in the U.S
“If the enemy is in well-prepared defensive positions or the terrain restricts vehicle movement onto the objective
the assault is dismounted,” the field manual advises
That’s because a mech force’s light armored personnel carriers are vulnerable to artillery
can spread out and bound from cover to cover—making them less vulnerable to heavy enemy fire than their APCs are
the APCs should fall back to safer positions and open fire with their machine guns
covering the infantry as the infantry bound forward
hurt or repulsed should rejoin the APCs and “remount,” FM 7-7 explains
“A key consideration is how and where the two elements will link up.”
The 37th Marine Brigade seems to have figured that out
Someone breaks through to the outskirt of houses
It’s these runners that the marine vehicles link up with
“The armor immediately jumps up to the fleeing [infantry]
loads them—and [transports them] again into battle.” Think of the APCs as taxis
steadily shuttling infantry to the edge of the battlefield
That the brigade apparently has succeeded in putting a dent in Russian lines without much tank support speaks to its professionalism, aggression and adaptability. Once heavy reinforcements arrive, the marines’ tactics might evolve to be more direct.
It could happen soon. The Ukrainian army’s 3rd Tank Brigade reportedly is nearby, apparently waiting for the marines and other light forces to determine the best time and place for the tank brigade to join the fight.
The blowing up of the dam near Kherson will delay an amoured assault in the area, writes Kim Sengupta. But Kyiv's forces are conducting operations across other areas of the frontline
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 AnalysisUkraine on manoeuvres in its counterpunch against Russia: ‘This is our big shot we can’t screw it up’The blowing up of the dam near Kherson will delay an amoured assault in the area, writes <a href="/author/kim-sengupta">Kim Sengupta</a>
But Kyiv's forces are conducting operations across other areas of the frontline
The blowing up of the Nova Kakhovka dam will delay an expected armoured thrust in the area by Ukrainian forces
but military action in the preliminary stages of Kyiv's counteroffensive continues across the frontline
The route along the dam near <a href="/topic/kherson">Kherson</a> was one the Ukrainians would have taken to move armour – like tanks – and heavy equipment
There were also plans for landings on islands downstream
where fierce clashes have been taking place for some time
The submerging of these pathways means that tactics are redrawn and troops and weapons repositioned
are continuing unaffected with cautious advances on both the southern and eastern frontline in small numbers
The operations are taking place largely without artillery and armoured support
and appear to be testing Russian defences to probe for weaknesses
Despite Moscow’s claims to have destroyed advanced Western tanks
there is no evidence of large numbers of German Leopards or British Challengers as yet being deployed
The newly-formed brigades armed with them are being held back outside Russian artillery range
shielded by triple-A (anti-aircraft artillery) from drones
The focus of the Ukrainian probes are in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions
where they have advanced as far as possible – only turning back
This is being portrayed in the Kremlin-backed media as the Ukrainian counteroffensive failing
commander of the paramilitary Vostok Battalion
wrote on Telegram: “Instead of an armoured herd in numbers exceeding the number of the defenders [Russian forces] of Novodonetske
the enemy dashes on light armour as close as possible to the village
dismounts the infantry intended for the assault and then the light armour returns for a new batch”
the armoured personnel carriers retreat and provide fire support
making themselves harder for artillery to hit
inflict enemy casualties when possible and then fall back
Conducting such sorties in small numbers means a number of missions can be mounted in a comparatively short time
tiring out Russian forces ahead of major operations get underway
<a href="/topic/ukraine">Ukraine</a>’s 37th Marine Brigade seem to have been particularly active
and have been carrying out sorties on American M-ATV armoured trucks and French Amx-10RC reconnaissance vehicles
On Sunday the Kremlin announced that a “large-scale offensive” by the Ukrainians in the Donetsk oblast had been repulsed
Video was produced purporting to show vehicles in a field under heavy fire
More than 300 troops had been killed and 16 tanks destroyed
later updated enemy losses to “3,715 troops
and they have also been rubbished by Yevgeny Prigozhin
who has become a trenchant critic of the Russian high command saying they were “wild and absurd fantasies
Moscow pointed to the Ukrainian 23rd and 31st mechanised brigades as those who took part in what it termed “the battle of Donetsk”
But neither of these are among the brigades that have been armed with the latest Nato weapons to carry out the main assault
After stating for months that it will not make any public statements on the offensive
secretary of national security and defence council
said on Wednesday: “When all this will begin
One senior Ukrainian security official said: “We have had journalists
even Nato officials asking ‘are you going to start it on the anniversary of D-Day [6 June]
reality has to take precedence over symbolism
More about<a href="/topic/ukraine" class="sc-n08b2m-2 bsdbXr">Ukraine</a><a href="/topic/russia" class="sc-n08b2m-2 bsdbXr">Russia</a><a href="/topic/kherson" class="sc-n08b2m-2 bsdbXr">Kherson</a>Join our commenting forumJoin thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
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high casualty counts during the opening day of the offensive coupled with direct assault on&nbsp;Russian fortified positions would result in&nbsp;high losses
a&nbsp;number of footages has become available showcasing at&nbsp;least some of the losses suffered by&nbsp;Ukrainian forces during the assaults
It is also worth remembering that the offensive will result in&nbsp;increased Ukrainian casualty counts
The following paragraphs aim to&nbsp;describe the situation in&nbsp;the most important areas of the frontline
The attack was stopped by&nbsp;a&nbsp;Russian minefield and artillery fire which destroyed several Ukrainian armoured vehicles
Ukrainian forces have also mounted a&nbsp;significant attack in&nbsp;the direction of Robotyne (western Zaporizhia oblast)
As&nbsp;mentioned earlier in&nbsp;this area a&nbsp;Ukrainian armoured column was heavily targeted by&nbsp;Russian artillery
with at&nbsp;least 1 Leopard 2 tank destroyed
according to&nbsp;some reports Ukrainian forces have managed to&nbsp;break through the initial Russian defences and reached the settlement of Robotyne &#8211; fierce fighting is supposedly taking place
Russian forces managed to&nbsp;retake the settlement of Novodonetske in&nbsp;Zaporizhia Oblast
and the commitment of vast amounts of manpower and equipment
including valuable western gear like the Leopard 2 tanks
as&nbsp;well as&nbsp;unprecedented artillery bombardment along the entire frontline
suggest that the Southern Front might turn out to&nbsp;be&nbsp;a&nbsp;new focal point of the war
and possibly the main avenue of the Ukrainian counteroffensive
Currently it seems that it is the Ukrainians that hold the initiative in&nbsp;the Bakhmut area
however if the Russian resistance is maintained the offensive in&nbsp;this area may stall
While Bakhmut may not be&nbsp;the main direction of the Ukrainian offensive
high losses and lack of significant progress in&nbsp;this area may hamper Ukrainian operations elsewhere &#8211; allowing Russians to&nbsp;transition local troops onto other key battlefields or&nbsp;forcing Ukrainians to&nbsp;redirect additional manpower and resources to&nbsp;maintain this frontline
If successful the operation around Bakhmut could heavily cripple Russian military capabilities and facilitate Ukrainian operation in&nbsp;other sectors
Russian forces have blown up the great dam on&nbsp;the Dnieper in&nbsp;Nova Kakhovka
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence accused Russia of using explosives to&nbsp;demolish the dam
resulting in&nbsp;a&nbsp;major ecological and humanitarian disaster
The destruction of the hydroelectric plant led to&nbsp;an unleashing of a&nbsp;wave that flooded vast areas of the Kherson Oblast
The flood affected areas both on&nbsp;the western (Ukrainian held) and eastern (Russian held) banks of the river
and even Kherson city itself have been flooded
The destruction of the dam will also result in&nbsp;major issues with potable water supplies for the Crimean Peninsula as&nbsp;the Nova Kakhovka reservoir provided the majority of the water
reports from Crimea state that there are problems with the access to&nbsp;drinkable water
stating that available water is contaminated and not suitable for use
The flood wave also destroyed the positions of armed forces of both sides
with RUssia losing its first line of defence on&nbsp;the eastern bank of the Dnieper river
There remains only one question: why would Russia blow up the dam
The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam by&nbsp;the Russian forces has been widely speculated about since the onset of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in&nbsp;the fall of 2022
The previous discussions often concluded that Russian losses in&nbsp;the aftermath of the dam destruction would be&nbsp;higher than the potential gains
now after the destruction of the dam it is worth to&nbsp;consider what might have pushed the Russian forces to&nbsp;such an extreme move and what they hope to&nbsp;gain from it
The first major gain is the complete postponement of Ukrainian offensive operations in&nbsp;the area. The flood wave is set to&nbsp;last for around 10 to&nbsp;12 days, with the areas affected needing as&nbsp;much as&nbsp;5 weeks to&nbsp;dry up and return to&nbsp;pre flooding conditions.<a href="#_edn8" name="_ednref8">[viii]</a> This means that any Ukrainian operations in&nbsp;the area
for example as&nbsp;part of the Ukrainian counter offensive
won&#8217;t be&nbsp;possible for the next 6 &#8211; 7 weeks
On&nbsp;the other hand the flooding also destroyed Russian defensive positions comprising their first line of defence on&nbsp;the eastern bank
meaning that if Ukrainians choose to&nbsp;attack there
There are reports that state that Russian forces have withdrawn their forces and equipment to&nbsp;the second line of defence
It is possible that Russian forces decided that limited initial gains of a&nbsp;possible Ukrainian assault across the river are acceptable and that the second line would be&nbsp;sufficient in&nbsp;dealing with the attack
The other option is that the Russians will aim to&nbsp;reoccupy the currently inaccessible areas as&nbsp;the flood dissipates
the postponement of Ukrainian operations along the Kherson line would allow Russian forces to&nbsp;transition troops to&nbsp;more contested areas of the battlefield
As&nbsp;the Ukrainians will be&nbsp;unable to&nbsp;conduct offensive operations in&nbsp;the area for the next several weeks
this allows Russians to&nbsp;safely relocate troops to&nbsp;other key fronts
while leaving behind only placeholder forces
This in&nbsp;turn might potentially allow the Russians to&nbsp;retake initiative in&nbsp;other sections of the front or&nbsp;thwart the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive
from the bountiful Ukrainian farmlands that provide key food products
This might force Ukraine to&nbsp;commit further resources and manpower to&nbsp;resolve this issue
as&nbsp;well as&nbsp;other nations reliant on&nbsp;Ukraine for food might be&nbsp;faced with a&nbsp;bleak prospect of famine
and potentially compromise the counter offensive
As&nbsp;the Ukrainian counter offensive begins in&nbsp;earnest
and thousands of troops go&nbsp;onto the attack armed with western gear and Russian forces mobilise en&nbsp;masse to&nbsp;respond to&nbsp;the attack one can safely state that a&nbsp;key point in&nbsp;the war for Ukraine has come and it very well be&nbsp;the war’s make or&nbsp;break
<a href="#_ednref1" name="_edn1">[i]</a> GeoConfirmed, Twitter, June 8, 2023, <a href="https://twitter.com/geoconfirmed/status/1666743576678522885?s=46&amp;t=I-r9GETvDy8gm6bbbhswvA">https://twitter.com/geoconfirmed/status/1666743576678522885?s=46&amp;t=I-r9GETvDy8gm6bbbhswvA</a>
<a href="#_ednref2" name="_edn2">[ii]</a> Ukraine Weapons Tracker
<a href="https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1666830782533435394?s=46&amp;t=I-r9GETvDy8gm6bbbhswvA">https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1666830782533435394?s=46&amp;t=I-r9GETvDy8gm6bbbhswvA</a>
<a href="#_ednref3" name="_edn3">[iii]</a> Samantha Schmidt et&nbsp;al., “Ukraine launches counteroffensive against Russia”, The Washington Post, June 9, 2023, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/</a>
<a href="#_ednref4" name="_edn4">[iv]</a> “Kiev’s offensive fails; what’s behind Kakhovka dam strike —&nbsp;details from Shoigu”, TASS Russian News Agency, June 6, 2023, <a href="https://tass.com/defense/1628609">https://tass.com/defense/1628609</a>
Bartłomiej Wypartowicz, Twitter, June 8, 2023, <a href="https://twitter.com/wypartowiczba/status/1666794423152259072?s=46&amp;t=I-r9GETvDy8gm6bbbhswvA">https://twitter.com/wypartowiczba/status/1666794423152259072?s=46&amp;t=I-r9GETvDy8gm6bbbhswvA</a>
<a href="#_ednref5" name="_edn5">[v]</a> Artur Micek, Twitter, June 7, 2023, <a href="https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1666219863101124611">https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1666219863101124611</a>
<a href="#_ednref6" name="_edn6">[vi]</a> Karolina Hird et&nbsp;al., “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023”, Press ISW, June 6, 2023, <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-6-2023">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-6-2023</a>
<a href="#_ednref7" name="_edn7">[vii]</a> Jim Sciutto, “Ukrainian forces suffer ‘stiff resistance’ and losses in&nbsp;assault on&nbsp;Russian lines”, CNN, June 8, 2023, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/08/politics/ukraine-forces-resistance/index.html">https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/08/politics/ukraine-forces-resistance/index.html</a>
<a href="#_ednref8" name="_edn8">[viii]</a> Artur Micek, Twitter, June 7, 2023, <a href="https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1666219863101124611">https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1666219863101124611</a>
<a href="#_ednref9" name="_edn9">[ix]</a> Tatarigami_UA, Twitter, June 6, 2023, <a href="https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1666174186685956099?cxt=HHwWhoC8tYqmuJ8uAAAA">https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1666174186685956099?cxt=HHwWhoC8tYqmuJ8uAAAA</a>
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Drone warfare picks up with four&nbsp;Il-76 Transport aircraft damaged&nbsp;in an attack&nbsp;on Pskov Air Base
700 kilometers&nbsp;away from the Ukraine border.&nbsp;Russian media write that a total of 15 drones attacked the airport
Odds are this attack originated from within Russia
A cheerful night in many ru cities. Tula, Bryansk, Pskov. Chickens come home to roost.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StandWithUkraine%EF%B8%8F?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StandWithUkraine️</a> <a href="https://t.co/lqMMclZtaa">pic.twitter.com/lqMMclZtaa</a>
In the past few hours, reports have emerged of strikes conducted in multiple regions across Russia and occupied Crimea. Today’s attacks are a demonstration of the evolving sophistication and capability of Ukraine’s conduct of strike operations.<a href="https://t.co/btY4xHDF3z">https://t.co/btY4xHDF3z</a> <a href="https://t.co/37pOEvfz8v">pic.twitter.com/37pOEvfz8v</a>
In the past few hours,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66654125">reports have emerged</a>&nbsp;of strikes conducted in multiple regions across Russia and occupied Crimea
Today’s attacks are a demonstration of the evolving sophistication and capability of Ukraine’s conduct of strike operations
The Ukrainians are not only conducting strikes on an expanding list of targets but doing it at longer range
Long range strike has been a key evolution for the Ukrainians since the beginning of the Russian invasion. While this has principally been founded on ground-based rocket launchers, armed drones, cruise missiles from the UK and France (and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-in-talks-to-send-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine-reports/a-66500574">hopefully soon from Germany</a>)
and uncrewed maritime strike vessels have also expanded the reach of the Ukrainian Armed Forces since February 2022
These long-range strikes are not just military operations
Perhaps the most important impact of these long-range rocket launchers is that they permitted the Ukrainians – after a bloody campaign in the Donbas in mid 2022 - to return to fighting the Russians at a distance
&nbsp;This was a critical Ukrainian adaptation in the east
because the Russians had changed tactics to concentrate their forces in single large
The Russians used their advantage in firepower in the Donbas and forced the Ukrainians into an attritional battle for the Donbas
The introduction of HIMARS changed the battlefield calculus in the fight for Ukraine
<a href="https://mickryan.substack.com/p/a-strategic-strike-campaign" target="_blank">mickryan.substack.com/...</a>
Day 552. Russia has concentrated over 100,000 troops in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction of the front in Kharkiv Oblast and Luhansk Oblast. Zelenskyy says he wants elections in 2024: billions and observers in trenches needed.<a href="https://t.co/5REd6OdgLy">https://t.co/5REd6OdgLy</a>
Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 29
an important Russian ground line of communication (GLOC).[5] 
<a href="https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29-2023" target="_blank">understandingwar.org/...</a>
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is currently focused on promoting five main information operations against Ukraine
The GUR reported on August 29 that the Russian Presidential Administration held a meeting on August 25 to approve the specific narratives that Russian media should promote in the information space.[33] The Russian narratives include
Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko and Russian media representatives reportedly attended the meeting
ISW has observed all five false narratives in the Russian information space.[35]
Salary perks lure Russians to join the invasion &#x1f1fa;&#x1f1e6;with privates promised 195,000 rubles (about $2040) monthly, while junior ranks serving in&#x1f1fa;&#x1f1e6;get over 200,000 rubles (about $2100) per month, equating to 2.7 times the average salary in&#x1f1f7;&#x1f1fa;.<a href="https://t.co/JpKD5oEHeX">https://t.co/JpKD5oEHeX</a>
⚡️ WAR IN <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/UKRAINE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#UKRAINE</a> - AUG 29■ Engagements close to average, &#x1f1f7;&#x1f1fa; strikes well below ■ Most landbased equipment &amp; vehicle losses this year■ Double-digit vehicle, artillery, APV, tanks &amp; special equipment losses■ Troop losses also &gt;7-day average&#x1f4c8; <a href="https://t.co/S4WsegweF7">https://t.co/S4WsegweF7</a> <a href="https://t.co/2ye0OmOUvm">pic.twitter.com/2ye0OmOUvm</a>
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and reportedly advanced on August 29
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the Kupyansk and Lyman (west of Kreminna) directions
particularly near Novoyehorivka (15km southwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna).[36] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk)
Stepova Novoselivka (18km southeast of Kupyansk)
and Kotlyarivka (22km southeast of Kupyansk).[37] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces captured a position near Synkivka.[38]&nbsp;
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Bakhmut on August 29 and advanced
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued positional battles on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border
with neither side making new territorial gains in the area on August 29
Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that positional battles are ongoing south of Velyka Novosilka,..
Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attempts to gain a foothold on the Staromayorske-Urozhaine line - 8km southeast and 8km south of Velyka Novosilka
respectively.[56] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported that Russian forces intensified airstrikes on Staromayorske in an effort to reduce Ukrainian offensive potential.[57] The Russian “Vostok” Battalion - which had previously lost its positions in Urozhaine due to lack of reinforcements - claimed that Ukrainian forces intensively shelled the unit’s positions around Novodonetske (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka)
resulting in casualties.[58] Geolocated footage showed elements of the Russian 30th Artillery Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army
Eastern Military District) shelling Ukrainian forces north of Novodonetske.[59]
THE BEACH PARTY IS OVER: <a href="https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Gerashchenko_en</a> reports that Russian authorities plan the mobilization of 30,000 Crimean residents. An additional 10,000 locals will be drafted into the Russian military. Expect traffic delays on the outbound lanes of the Kerch Bridge. <a href="https://t.co/zJaCm2ONCB">pic.twitter.com/zJaCm2ONCB</a>
"We are moving along the southern flank there
We have already reached many dominant heights
because they cannot leave Bakhmut and cannot move fully within the city," 
Impressive thread was done by the <a href="https://twitter.com/Black_BirdGroup?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Black_BirdGroup</a> about defenses in the south. In relation to this subject, I'd like to add additional insights and context. My intention is not to critique their presented report, but to emphasize crucial details that need to be added. &#x1f9f5;Thread <a href="https://t.co/ZkYrRjO9Ab">pic.twitter.com/ZkYrRjO9Ab</a>
I see analysts focusing on visible defenses
This could foster the perception that the first defensive line is where fortifications are visible through satellite imagery
based on the presence of features like dragon's teeth
this tendency can be attributed to the Streetlight effect - an observational bias wherein people exclusively search where it's easiest to look
this translates to focusing on only visible defense structures
5/ In this short timelapse video spanning from May to August, I've highlighted fortified zones that mappers often chart. However, by looking at damages it's evident that the true theater of combat was across all tree lines visible in the area. <a href="https://t.co/25EsI49HAo">pic.twitter.com/25EsI49HAo</a>
10/ P.S.: I believe the main battle is ongoing
leading to the deployment of russian strategic reserves
This implies we should avoid statements like "Ukraine hasn't reached the first defense line," even though they might eventually retreat to the "Surovikin line."
Russians lost a rare 9S36M radar unit of a Buk-M3 air defense system by a HIMARS strike. The unit price is around $40 million and not many of these vehicles, which have been introduced in 2015, have been manufactured.Source: <a href="https://t.co/7olDbutchz">https://t.co/7olDbutchz</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Ukraine</a> <a href="https://t.co/19fMSz67NR">pic.twitter.com/19fMSz67NR</a>
Western components are shipped to Russia for the production of weapons through a long chain of intermediariesSanctions just increase the price of components, like the German-made engines Lancets bought at a threefold higher price, Ukraine's report says <a href="https://t.co/frxelYxWSy">https://t.co/frxelYxWSy</a> <a href="https://t.co/1uhdElseDE">pic.twitter.com/1uhdElseDE</a>
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the DeepState online service informed about the Russian occupation of the village of Illinka on the Kurakhove direction
The report also mentioned Russian advances near the villages of Dalnie
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated on November 14 that the reports about the occupation of Illinka and the supposed presence of Russian troops in Kupiansk are false
"Kupiansk is fully under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces
The village of Illinka in Donetsk region is also under Ukrainian control
but our forces firmly hold their positions," the statement said
On November 13, <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-troops-used-ukraine-s-forces-uniforms-1731519519.html" target="_blank">the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces had attempted to advance in the Kupiansk direction.</a> Some of the Russian soldiers were wearing Ukrainian military uniforms
Ukrainian defenders repelled the enemy's attacks
DeepState released footage of the Russian assault on Kupiansk
Analysts noted that Ukrainian forces destroyed Russian military equipment
but approximately 15 enemy soldiers escaped and hid in the local buildings
According to the Head of the Kupiansk Military Civil Administration, the situation in the city was under control as of the morning of November 14. He emphasized that <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-paratroopers-knocked-out-of-kupiansk-1731574169.html" target="_blank">Russian troops had failed to gain a foothold in Kupiansk,</a> and those who remained in the city were eliminated.