In the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian soldiers shot 5 Ukrainian prisoners of war. The incident occurred near the village of Novodarivka, Polohy district, according to the <a href="https://t.me/pgo_gov_ua/27632" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Office of the Prosecutor General.</a>
Russian army soldiers shot five Ukrainian defenders out of six who were taken prisoner
Ukrainian law enforcement officers have identified a Russian army unit whose servicemen are being checked for involvement in this crime
Investigators also have a video recording that captured the moment of the shooting
The Zaporizhzhia Regional Prosecutor's Office opened a criminal investigation into the violation of the laws and customs of war combined with premeditated murder (Part 2 of Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine)
The Prosecutor General's Office emphasized that the killing of prisoners of war is a gross violation of the Geneva Conventions and is classified as a serious international crime
Photo: Zaporizhzhia Regional Prosecutor's Office
Recently, it became known that <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-forces-execute-five-ukrainian-soldiers-1732621934.html">Russian invaders shot 5 captured Ukrainian servicemen in the Pokrovsk direction</a>
Earlier it was reported that the Russian military shot five Ukrainian prisoners of war near Vuhledar
In addition, <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-troops-shoot-two-ukrainian-prisoners-1732122604.html">Russian troops shot 2 Ukrainian soldiers in the Pokrovsk sector</a>
They were taken prisoner and then executed
Also, in early November, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported that <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russians-execute-9-ukrainian-prisoners-of-1728806353.html">Russians had probably shot two Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Kursk region.</a>
Click <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375">here</a> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report
Click <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895">here</a> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline
ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 2pm ET on June 8
ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday
Ukrainian forces conducted a limited but still significant attack in western Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8
Russian forces apparently defended against this attack in a doctrinally sound manner and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8
held by elements of the 291st and 70th Motorized Rifle Regiments (42nd Motorized Rifle Division
Southern Military District) and the 22nd and 45th Separate Guards Special Purpose (GRU) Brigades
but reported that these Russian elements succeeded in counterattacking and eventually pushing Ukrainian forces back to their original positions.[5] Available geolocated combat footage suggests that limited Ukrainian forces crossed the N08 Polohy-Voskresenka highway
but Russian sourcing indicates that Russian forces likely pushed Ukrainians back in the Orikhiv direction towards the frontline and regained the lost positions.[6]
Ukrainian forces also reportedly lost Western-provided vehicles on June 8.[7] Losses are inevitable during any military undertaking
including of both Western and Soviet equipment
Western equipment is not impervious to damage any more than the equipment that the Ukrainians have been using and losing since February 2022
The loss of equipment — including Western equipment — early on in the counteroffensive is not an indicator of the future progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive
It is important not to exaggerate the impact of initial losses of Western or any other equipment
particularly in penetration battles against prepared defensive positions
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to the Ukrainian attack with an uncharacteristic degree of coherency and praised Southern Military District elements for repelling the attack and regaining lost positions
The Russian MoD published a video statement by the commander of the Russian grouping in the Zaporizhia direction
wherein Romanchuk reported that Ukrainian forces started attacking around 0200 local time June 8 and that Russian forces
particularly those of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division
succeeded in repelling the attack.[8] Romanchuk claimed that Ukrainian forces telegraphed the ground attack with extensive artillery preparation of the battlefield.[9] The Russian MoD also released a statement by 58th Combined Arms Army Commander Major General Ivan Popov
who credited elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army with effectively laying mines to impede Ukrainian advances.[10] The overall Russian response to the attack
both among various milbloggers and the Russian MoD
was notably coherent and relatively consistent with the available visual evidence
which may suggest that Russian forces were not surprised and reacted in a controlled and militarily sound manner
the Russian information space reacts with a high degree of chaos and incoherence when taken by surprise by battlefield developments that do not allow the propaganda apparatus to develop a clear line.[11] By contrast
the Russian responses to this attack suggest that Russian forces defended in the way that they had prepared to
thus giving Russian sources a rhetorical line to coalesce around
Russian sources provided explanations for claimed Russian successes during the June 8 attacks
praising Russian forces’ effective use of electronic warfare (EW) systems
Multiple Russian sources reported that Russian EW severely interfered with Ukrainian command and control signals
UAV controls.[12] Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces had insufficient air defense in the Orikhiv sector
that Russian forces operated with an “unprecedented” amount of rotary wing air support
and that Russian aviation was able to return to a high level of activity after not actively engaging in combat operations since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022.[13] Continuous Russian missile and drone attacks against Kyiv and critical Ukrainian infrastructure may have fixed Ukraine’s more advanced air defense systems away from the frontline
although ISW cannot assess which systems would be effective against the kinds of air support missions Russian aircraft were flying
ISW’s previous assessments that Russian air and missile attacks were not setting conditions to defend against the Ukrainian counter-offensive may thus have been inaccurate
Russian sources also praised at length their claimed defensive success using layered field fortifications and landmines
with Major General Popov stating that Russian minefields played a “very important role” in defeating the initial Ukrainian advance in the early hours of June 8.[14] CNN additionally reported that an anonymous US official said that Russian landmines degraded Ukrainian armored vehicles.[15]
Russian forces appear to have executed their formal tactical defensive doctrine in response to the Ukrainian attacks southwest of Orikhiv
Russian doctrine for a defending motorized rifle battalion calls for a first echelon of troops to repel or slow attacking forces with minefields
Early control of terrain changes day to day should thus not be misconstrued as the overall result of a wider attack
Ukrainian attacks in western Zaporizhia on June 8 do not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current counteroffensive
Ukraine previously demonstrated the ability to conduct a coordinated and effective offensive operation using multiple mechanized brigades as early as September 2022 during the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast
Ukrainian forces possessed this capability – in terms of both available forces and the capacity to coordinate complex attacks – before the provision of Western kit for offensive brigades and additional training from NATO partners
Ukraine’s counteroffensive will likely consist of many undertakings of varied size
including more localized attacks as observed in this sector on June 8
and the smaller efforts do not represent the maximum capacity of Ukrainian numbers or effectiveness
Ukraine reportedly formed 12 dedicated counteroffensive brigades
nine equipped with Western kit and three with existing equipment
and these units will almost certainly be joined by experienced Ukrainian units already online.[18] Ukraine appears to have committed only a portion of the large reserve of forces available for counteroffensive operations
and observers should avoid counting down reported Ukrainian brigades committed or reportedly damaged Western kit as the measure of the remaining effective combat power of Ukrainian forces
It is additionally noteworthy that the Russian Southern Military District Forces deployed in this particular area are likely to be a higher quality force grouping than Russia has elsewhere in theater
and their defensive performance is unlikely to be reflective of defensive capabilities of Russian groupings elsewhere on the front
are likely generally fresher and more experienced than elements in other areas of the front
The Russian defense of this sector should not be taken as indicative of overall Russian defensive capabilities as Ukraine continues counteroffensive operations
Russian forces defending in other sectors have indeed performed much more poorly
having recently regained the battlefield initiative across the theater
will be able to choose exactly where in to continue attacking based on observed defensive capabilities of various Russian groupings along the frontline among other factors
Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to exacerbate the humanitarian ramifications of the flooding resulting from the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam break
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 8 that Russian forces are hiding amongst civilians who are evacuating from flooded settlements on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River and that occupation authorities are housing evacuated residents in boarding houses and recreation centers where Russian troops and equipment are located.[21] Several Ukrainian and Western sources additionally reported that Russian troops shelled a flooded evacuation site in Kherson City
killing one civilian and injuring nine.[22] Russian occupation authorities claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled evacuation efforts on the east bank but did not provide visual evidence commensurate with these allegations.[23]
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly postponed his annual press conference from June 2023 until November or December 2023.[24] Russian news outlet Kommersant claimed on June 8
that Putin is postponing his annual “Direct Line” live journalistic forum until the Russian military situation is more stable
which the sources characterized as likely in November or December
Kommersant’s source reportedly stated that these dates are preliminary
and that Putin aims to hold the “Direct Line” before the March 2024 presidential elections.[25] ISW has previously assessed that Putin would likely hold the “Direct Line” in early June 2023 after Russian forces captured Bakhmut
and pushing back the forum indicates that the Kremlin may perceive the capture Bakhmut as an insufficient informational victory to compensate for the overall unstable Russian military situation in Ukraine.[26] Delaying the “Direct Line” forum further illustrates Putin’s decline from a seemingly involved and strong leader to one more often portrayed as minutely involved in small infrastructure projects
<a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOTJune%208%2C2023.png"></a>
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting
We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas
We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict
and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and around Kreminna on June 8
Ukrainian forces continue to strike rear areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast
Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed on June 8 that Ukrainian forces struck Luhansk City
and geolocated footage shows a large smoke plume rising from the city.[32]
<a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%208%2C2023.png"></a>
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces made limited gains around Bakhmut on June 8
Geolocated footage published on June 7 indicates that Ukrainian forces made limited advances near Berkhivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut).[33] Ukrainian and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces made advances 1.8km wide and 1.2km deep along the western bank of the Siverskyi Donetsk Canal west of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) and forced elements of the Russian 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade (5th Combined Arms Army
Eastern Military District) and convict servicemen of the “Storm-Z” unit out of their positions.[34] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut)
and Pivnichne (20km southwest of Bakhmut).[35] Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing in the Bakhmut direction.[36] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty also stated at least 81,000 Wagner servicemen have been killed or wounded in the fighting around Bakhmut since July 2022.[37]
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on June 8
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka
and Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka) and that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Marinka.[38] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced near Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka).[39] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov posted footage on June 8 showing Akhmat Special Forces (Spetsnaz) Commander Major General Apty Alaudinov claiming that Akhmat Spetsnaz units and elements of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army
Southern Military District) are repelling Ukrainian attacks in Marinka.[40] Geolocated footage published on June 8 shows artillery elements of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th Army Corps
Eastern Military District) operating near Marinka.[41]
<a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%2008%2C2023.png"></a>
<a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Bakhmut%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%208%2C2023.png"></a>
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts on June 8
Ukrainian forces continue to strike rear areas of occupied southern Zaporizhia Oblast
Russian and Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces struck Tokmak on June 7 and 8.[46] Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported explosions in Berdyansk on June 8
and geolocated footage shows a large smoke plume rising in the city.[47]
Flooding from the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam has reportedly forced Russian forces to withdraw further to rear areas in eastern Kherson Oblast and inflicted some manpower and equipment losses
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk reported that Russian forces withdrew between five and 15 kilometers from the front line on the Dnipro River due to flooding of their frontline positions.[48] Russian forces likely no longer occupy Oleshky as of June 8 due to extensive flooding there.[49] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered manpower and equipment losses from the flooding
especially within the 7th Airborne (VDV) Division (Southern Military District) and 22nd Army Corps (Black Sea Fleet
Southern Military District).[50] The southern branch of the Ukrainian governmental organization “Forests of Ukraine” reported that flooding completely cut off the Kinburn Spit from mainland Ukraine as of the evening of June 7.[51] Russian forces previously established fortified positions on the Kinburn Spit
and it is unclear whether or not any Russian forces remain on the spit following the flooding
The Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration reported that the average level of flooding in Kherson Oblast is 5.61 meters
and that 32 percent of the flooding is concentrated in the west (right) bank
while 68 percent is concentrated in the east (left) bank.[52]
Decreasing water levels in the Kakhovka Reservoir do not currently threaten the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)’s cooling operations as of June 8.[53] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi stated on June 8 that the ZNPP is still drawing water from the Kakhovka Reservoir to cool its nuclear reactors even though the water level has dipped to levels below which experts previously estimated that the ZNPP’s water pumps could no longer operate
Grossi stated that the Kakhovka Reservoir water level has dropped from 16.8 meters to 12.7 meters and that the ZNPP can likely sustain cooling operations if the water level drops to 11 meters
Grossi stated that the water level is currently decreasing at a rate of four to seven centimeters per hour
Ukrainian nuclear energy operator Energoatom also stated that the water level in the ZNPP’s cooling pond is stable as of June 8.[54]
<a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%208%2C2023.png"></a>
<a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson-Mykolaiv%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%208%2C2023.png"></a>
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)
The Russian MoD continues to posture itself as a firm authority over the defense industrial base (DIB) through emphasizing its ability to transport new equipment to the front
The Russian MoD published footage on June 8 showing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visiting troops in the Western Military District and inspecting weapons and equipment bound for Ukraine.[55] Shoigu emphasized the importance of installing additional protection on armored vehicles before transport to Ukraine and of decreasing the time between Russian forces receiving new equipment and sending it to combat areas
The Kremlin is continuing crypto-mobilization efforts through introducing incentives and coercive measures aimed at promoting military service
and an unspecified organization is offering a one-time bonus of 500,000 rubles (about $6,100).[58] The Russian MoD also claimed that the new Suvorov Military School in Irkutsk in Irkutsk Oblast will accept its first students starting in the 2023 academic year.[59]
Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural
Russian occupation authorities are reportedly resorting to punitive measures against civilian populations in occupied Ukraine due to Russian occupation authorities’ decreasing influence over civilians
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that populations in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are disregarding the occupation administrations’ orders.[60] Malyar also reported that Russian forces are using punitive measures to counter these trends including cordoning off Kyrylivka in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to subject its residents to filtration measures
and detaining and interrogating residents.[61]
Significant activity in Belarus (ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine is extraordinarily unlikely)
ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus
but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus
ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source
and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports
References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update
[1] https://t.me/annamaliar/818; https://t.me/osirskiy/103; https://t.me/ab3army/2669; https://t.me/annamaliar/822
[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-5-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-6-2023; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023
[3] https://t.me/mod_russia/27212; https://t.me/mod_russia/27213; https://t.me/bazabazon/18404; https://t.me/astrapress/29078; https://t.me/epoddubny/16288; https://t.me/wargonzo/13058; https://t.me/vrogov/10118; https://t.me/vrogov/10116; https://t.me/vrogov/10117; https://t.me/dva_majors/17187; https://t.me/rybar/48197; https://t.me/milinfolive/101868; https://t.me/readovkanews/60368; https://t.me/readovkanews/60351; https://t.me/rybar/48195
[5] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46864; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46897; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46915; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48335; https://t.me/milinfolive/101883; https://t.me/grey_zone/19033; https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/26284; https://t.me/voenacher/46137; https://t.me/sashakots/40222; https://t.me/wargonzo/13072
[6] https://t.me/voin_dv/3074 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1666794123750256641?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1666794125578862599?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1666794128921722888?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1666794130893144065?s=20
[7] https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1666824571553497088?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/TankerDucky/status/1666834621877702658?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/TankerDucky/status/1666834685823967232?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/TankerDucky/status/1666834885355470848?s=20;
[8] https://t.me/mod_russia/27225; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/905468
[9] https://t.me/mod_russia/27225; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/905468
[10] https://t.me/mod_russia/27226; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/905474; https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/17967561; https://t.me/milinfolive/101905 ; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7889; https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1666862382021476352?s=20
[12] https://t.me/milchronicles/2022; https://t.me/epoddubny/16305; https://t.me/epoddubny/16301; https://t.me/sashakots/40220
[13] https://t.me/notes_veterans/10052; https://t.me/notes_veterans/10085; https://t.me/sashakots/40235; https://t.me/notes_veterans/10085; https://t.me/notes_veterans/10052; https://t.me/mod_russia/27211; https://t.me/sashakots/40235; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/11726; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/7901; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46857; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46859; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46865; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46914
[14] https://t.me/mod_russia/27226; https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/905474; https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/17967561; https://t.me/milinfolive/101905 ; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7889; https://t.me/rybar/48220; https://t.me/wargonzo/13073; https://t.me/rybar/48195; https://t.me/milchronicles/2022; https://t.me/miroshnik_r/11726; https://t.me/rybar/48195; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/7901; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/88334; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48335
[15] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/08/politics/ukraine-forces-resistance/index.html
[16] https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf; pg
[17] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/11884; https://t.me/wargonzo/13085; https://t.me/notes_veterans/10052; https://t.me/notes_veterans/10085; https://t.me/readovkanews/60368; https://t.me/readovkanews/60351; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46856; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46857; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46859; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46863; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46864; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46897; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46905; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/46915
[18] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/11/ukraine-is-forming-a-dozen-new-brigades-and-giving-them-old-weaponry/?sh=2c9aec6215dc
[19] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2023
[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2023
[21] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02CKJGVTh4ezJH2BgAbnaqnrVzUEzzgyhNqqxSbZMdRRMHuB3R5b7mjgrZXc1QgAaKl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UeFyMZMki9dWoxzECkxdSQ7borSHdHDF55kPkFHenTpriWtVRbZwRSMVtCiDgmaXl
[22] https://t.me/phogovua/1992; https://twitter.com/YurchenkoSt/status/1666765498506264576; https://twitter.com/YurchenkoSt/status/1666768429125103616; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666769443878326272 ; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1666772231471374337?s=20; https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1666790068432916480; https://twitter.com/francisjfarrell/status/1666780216545484802
[23] https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/855; https://t.me/basurin_e/2672; https://t.me/readovkanews/60369
[24] https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/6029752?tg
[25] https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/6029752?tg
[26] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-14-2023
[27] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28-2023
[28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02CKJGVTh4ezJH2BgAbnaqnrVzUEzzgyhNqqxSbZMdRRMHuB3R5b7mjgrZXc1QgAaKl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UeFyMZMki9dWoxzECkxdSQ7borSHdHDF55kPkFHenTpriWtVRbZwRSMVtCiDgmaXl
[33] https://twitter.com/LoLManya/status/1666561757660282882?s=20; https://twitter.com/LoLManya/status/1666561955941740544?s=20;
[34] https://t.me/ab3army/2669; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/88307; https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1666835894781857794?s=20; https://t.me/wargonzo/13058
[35] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02CKJGVTh4ezJH2BgAbnaqnrVzUEzzgyhNqqxSbZMdRRMHuB3R5b7mjgrZXc1QgAaKl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UeFyMZMki9dWoxzECkxdSQ7borSHdHDF55kPkFHenTpriWtVRbZwRSMVtCiDgmaXl
[36] https://t.me/osirskiy/105; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1666813382840958977?s=20
[38] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UeFyMZMki9dWoxzECkxdSQ7borSHdHDF55kPkFHenTpriWtVRbZwRSMVtCiDgmaXl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02CKJGVTh4ezJH2BgAbnaqnrVzUEzzgyhNqqxSbZMdRRMHuB3R5b7mjgrZXc1QgAaKl
[41] https://t.me/voin_dv/3086 ; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1666816670969761797?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1666817921061097475?s=20
[45] https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1666819625055842304?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/klinger66/status/1666836425197641728?s=20; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1666815739242885120; https://t.me/kolesnyknews/170 ; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1666828941531701250?s=20; https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1666861058227568640?s=20; https://t.me/lost_warinua/37877
[46] https://t.me/vrogov/10128; https://t.me/vrogov/10113; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/2182
[47] https://t.me/rybar/48231; https://t.me/andriyshTime/10575; https://t.me/andriyshTime/10578 ; https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1666821105267642368?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/EerikMatero/status/1666825585102864384?s=20; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/2184; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48335
[48] https://gordonua dot com/ukr/news/war/okupanti-na-livomu-berezi-dnipra-vidijshli-na-5-15-km-pislja-pidrivu-kahovskoji-ges-ndash-gumenjuk-1667463.html
[49] https://twitter.com/BenDoBrown/status/1666602885952462848
[50] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UeFyMZMki9dWoxzECkxdSQ7borSHdHDF55kPkFHenTpriWtVRbZwRSMVtCiDgmaXl
[51] https://www.facebook.com/ForestsOfUkraine/posts/pfbid0iiw5SLAaVHw233sp3B3qpan2dyYNF1D8gUPmvEkd12ahJGt4LvKGjdXv7V341Yn5l
[52] https://t.me/khersonskaODA/6512; https://t.me/olexandrprokudin/614; https://t.me/hueviy_kherson/1233
[53] https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-163-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine
[55] https://t.me/mod_russia/27221; https://t.me/mod_russia/27222 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/16300
[56] https://regulation dot gov.ru/Regulation/Npa/PublicView?npaID=139009; https://t.me/sotaproject/60449; https://t.me/mobilizationnews/12588; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/17955657
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A man who fled from a small village near Polohy rests upon his arrival to a reception center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia
Ukraine — More than 60 people were feared dead Sunday after a Russian bomb flattened a school being used as a shelter
while Moscow's forces pressed their attack on defenders inside Mariupol's steel plant in an apparent race to capture the city ahead of Russia's Victory Day holiday
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "appalled" by the reported school bombing Saturday in the eastern village of Bilohorivka and called it another reminder that "it is civilians that pay the highest price" in war
Authorities said about 90 people were sheltering in the basement
Emergency crews found two bodies and rescued 30 people
but "most likely all 60 people who remain under the rubble are now dead," Serhiy Haidai
the industrial heartland in the east that Russia's forces are working to capture
As Moscow prepared to celebrate the 1945 surrender of Nazi Germany with a Victory Day military parade on Monday
a lineup of Western leaders and celebrities made surprise visits to Ukraine in a show of support
first lady Jill Biden met with her Ukrainian counterpart
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raised his country's flag at its embassy in Kyiv
performed in a Kyiv subway station that had been used as a bomb shelter
posted a picture of herself at the American Embassy
return to the Ukrainian capital after Moscow's forces abandoned their effort to storm Kyiv weeks ago and began focusing on the capture of the Donbas
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and others warned in recent days that Russian attacks would only worsen in the lead-up to Victory Day
and some cities declared curfews or cautioned people against gathering in public
Russian President Vladimir Putin may want to proclaim some kind of triumph in Ukraine when he addresses the troops on Red Square
upon arrival at a reception center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia
"They have nothing to celebrate tomorrow," Linda Thomas-Greenfield
"They have not succeeded in defeating the Ukrainians
They have not succeeded in dividing the world or dividing NATO
And they have only succeeded in isolating themselves internationally and becoming a pariah state around the globe."
Russian forces struggled to complete their takeover of Mariupol, which has been largely reduced to rubble. The sprawling seaside steel mill where an estimated 2,000 Ukrainian fighters were making what <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-geneva-international-law-0ec6efd6c3e253e751219724f9cb6be9">appeared to be their last stand</a> was the only part of the city not under Russian control
children and older civilians who were taking shelter with the fighters in the Azovstal plant were evacuated Saturday
Buses carrying over 170 evacuees from the steelworks and other parts of Mariupol arrived in the Ukrainian-held city of Zaporizhzhia on Sunday
The Ukrainian defenders in the steel mill have rejected deadlines set by the Russians for laying down their arms
deputy commander of the Ukrainian Azov Regiment
said the site was targeted overnight by warplanes
"We are under constant shelling," he said online
adding that Russian ground troops tried to storm the plant — a claim Russian officials denied in recent days — and lay mines
Palamar reported a "multitude of casualties."
said there were a couple of hundred wounded soldiers at the plant but declined to reveal how many able-bodied fighters remained
He said fighters didn't have lifesaving equipment and had to dig by hand to free people from bunkers that had collapsed under the shelling
"Surrender for us is unacceptable because we cannot grant such a gift to the enemy," Samoilenko said
The Ukrainian government has reached out to international organizations to try to secure safe passage for the defenders
leaders from the Group of Seven industrial democracies pledged to ban or phase out imports of Russian oil
The United States also announced new sanctions against Russia
cutting off Western advertising from Russia's three biggest TV stations
accounting and consulting firms from providing services
and cutting off Russia's industrial sector from wood products
Trudeau met with Zelenskyy and made a surprise visit to Irpin
which was damaged in Russia's attempt to take Kyiv
The Ukrainian president also met with the German parliament speaker
in Kyiv to discuss further defense assistance
Jill Biden visited western Ukraine for a surprise Mother's Day meeting with Zelenskyy's wife
Zelenskyy released a video address marking the day of the Allied victory in Europe 77 years ago
drawing parallels between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the evils of Nazism
The black-and-white footage showed Zelenskyy standing in front of a ruined apartment block in Borodyanka
Zelenskyy said that generations of Ukrainians understood the significance of the words "Never again," a phrase often used as a vow not to allow a repeat of the horrors of the Holocaust
explosions echoed again across the major Black Sea port of Odesa
The Ukrainian military said Moscow was focusing its main efforts on destroying airfield infrastructure in eastern and southern Ukraine
In a sign of the dogged resistance that has sustained the fighting into its 11th week
Ukraine's military struck Russian positions on a Black Sea island that was captured in the war's first days
A satellite image by Planet Labs showed smoke rising from two sites on the island
But Moscow's forces showed no sign of backing down in the south
Satellite photos show Russia has put armored vehicles and missile systems at a small base in the Crimean Peninsula
The most intense combat in recent days has taken place in eastern Ukraine
A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northeast near Kharkiv
is making "significant progress," according to the Institute for the Study of War
the Ukrainian army withdrew from the embattled eastern city of Popasna
said its forces and Russian troops had captured most of Popasna after two months of fierce fighting
The Kharkiv regional administration said three people were killed in shelling of the town of Bogodukhiv
the governor said a 12-year-old boy was killed by a cluster munition that he found after a Russian attack
An international treaty bans the use of such explosives
but neither Russia nor Ukraine has signed the agreement
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ShareSaveComment<a class="isDg-4PG" href="https://www.forbes.com/business/" data-ga-track="breadcrumb-L2">Business</a><a class="isDg-4PG _2XNbdi6I" href="https://www.forbes.com/aerospace-defense/" data-ga-track="breadcrumb-L3">Aerospace &amp; Defense</a>Ukrainian Troops May Be Massing For Their Fourth Counteroffensive. Russian Artillery Is Already Trying To Stop Them.By<a class="_4tin10wS YbfXuVMn" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/" rel="noreferrer" target="_self">David Axe</a>
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#article-stream-0 .headline-embed .font-size{font-size: 54px;}A Ukrainian 2S7 howitzer opens fire in Kherson Oblast
Russian and Ukrainian forces recently swapped artillery around Hulyaipole and Polohy in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast
65 miles northeast of Russian-occupied Melitopol
Artillery-on-artillery “counterbattery” battles aren’t uncommon as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 10th month
9 artillery duel is what reportedly instigated it
the Ukrainian army is massing mechanized forces around Hulyaipole
Russian troops at present are thin on the ground in Zaporizhzhia
The sector along the Hulyaipole-Polohy axis since this spring has been the haunt of separate brigade-size Russian and Ukrainian units
On the Russian side: the 291st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment
which on paper has a couple thousand soldiers and scores of armored vehicles
On the Ukrainian side: the 106th Territorial Defense Brigade
a lightly-equipped formation with a few thousand volunteers from the local area
The intel prompted “massive artillery strikes on enemy positions and near rear areas in the Hulyaipole ..
Ukrainain artillery in return struck Polohy
It’s unclear what Ukrainian mechanized forces may have moved into Hulyaipole in possible anticipation of an offensive toward Melitopol
A drive on Melitopol could require more than just a couple heavy brigades
Ukraine’s previous counteroffensives—around Kyiv in March and then around Kharkiv and Kherson six months later—each involved at least half-a-dozen heavy brigades
To liberate Melitopol then turn right and free southern Kherson Oblast on the left bank of the Dnipro River
a Ukrainian force would have to advance 200 miles and defeat a dozen or more Russian brigades and regiments
But even if these forces can’t risk moving to react to a possible Ukrainian attack northeast of Melitopol
they still would be in the path of that attack as it hooked toward the mouth of the Dnipro and the land bridge with Crimea
the Ukrainian armed forces will need to concentrate a lot of heavy forces in order for the Zaporizhzhia left hook to succeed
There’s a good chance the Russians will see them coming together—and try to disrupt their assembly with artillery
the spoiling bombardments may already have begun
 We know a battle took place south-east of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia province over 7-8 June
which resulted in the loss of a Ukrainian armoured infantry company equipped with Western vehicles
 There is sufficient reporting and imagery to compose a version of what happened
 This article examines the battle at Orikhiv and draws tentative tactical lessons
The Ukrainian armed forces refer to fronts as &#8216;directions&#8217;.  In this case, the term is apt.  Ukrainian-held Orikhiv – pre-war – was an unremarkable settlement with around <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orikhiv">14,000 inhabitants</a>
it was settled by Mennonites and Lutherans
it was at the centre of the area held by the anarchist Nestor Makhno and fought over by the White and Red Russians
it was from Orikhiv the Red Army launched its southern offensive
finally causing the defeat and flight of the White Russians
 Roughly 45 kilometres to the south on the T0408 is Tokmak
 And another 60 kilometres beyond Tokmak on the T0401 is Melitopol
 A successful advance in this direction would threaten to divide Russian-occupied Southern Ukraine and sever the land bridge to Crimea
Command of the Ukrainian &#8216;operational-strategic group of forces Tavria&#8217; is currently vested in Brigadier-General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi
who previously commanded forces on the Kherson front
 He has held his current post since the autumn of last year
deliberate manner but not without the occasional smile
 His immediate opponent is Colonel-General Alexander Romanchuk
 Romanchuk was born in Luhansk and is a former commander of 29th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) and Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District
he appears to report to the airborne Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinksy
apparently in overall command of the group of forces &#8216;Vostok’ (&#8216;South’)
Brigadier-General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi (left) and Colonel-General Alexander Romanchuk (right) Sources: <a href="https://t.me/militarymediacenter/821">Ukrainian Military Media Centre</a> and <a href="Gen%20https:/en.topcor.ru/36012-razvedka-vs-rf-ne-pozvolila-ukraincam-uspeshno-atakovat-na-zaporozhskom-napravlenii.html">Russian MOD</a>
 The first and second echelon defences appear to have been held by elements from 291st and 70th Motor Rifle Regiments (42nd Motorized Rifle Division
Southern Military District) and 22nd and 45th Separate Guards Special Purpose (GRU) Brigades
 58th Combined Arms Army is under the command of Major-General Ivan Popov
 The GRU forces were believed to provide specialist reconnaissance and detection capabilities such as ground radar
On 7 June, <a href="https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7849">Russian milbloggers</a> reported that Ukrainian forces attacked along the Mala Tokmachka-Polohy line to break through the Russian defensive line between Robotyne and Verbove (both about 15 kilometres south-east of Orikhiv)
 Russian sources acknowledged that Ukrainian forces broke through the first line of defence and assessed the Ukrainian objective was to advance to the line of the N08 Polohy-Voskresenka highway
another advance was preceded by preparatory fires
 The Ukrainian Army seeks to exploit its advantage in night vision devices
Russian defenders were alert to the Ukrainian actions and ready to respond
Source: <a href="https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-470-summary/">Militaryland.net</a> and Google Maps
It is not clear what happened between dawn and mid-morning
 Imagery shows an armoured infantry company
The armoured infantry company appeared to comprise 12 Bradley M2s
three Leopard 2A4s and a small number of support vehicles
including a T-55 engineer vehicle with mine plough and roller and an unknown vehicle that deployed a Pearson mine plough
The attempt to plough a safe lane through the Russian minefield failed.  The lead Leopard 2A4 struck a mine and lost a track (this tank was <a href="https://censor.net/ua/video_news/3423718/tank_leopard2a4_yakyyi_pidirvavsya_na_mini_ta_vtratyv_gusenytsyu_evakuyiovano_dlya_remontu_u_tyl_video">actually recovered</a>; the crew was unharmed)
Source: <a href="https://iz.ru/1526650/2023-06-10/vs-rf-unichtozhili-bronetekhniku-zapadnogo-proizvodstva-na-iuzhnodonetckom-napravlenii">Russian MOD</a>
The Leopard 2A4 was recovered.  Behind the stricken vehicles is a &#8216;collector&#8217;s piece&#8217;: a turret-less T-55 chassis engineering vehicle with Russian KMT-series mine plough/roller.  Source: <a href="https://topcor.ru/36041-rossijskaja-armija-prodolzhaet-zhech-tehniku-nato-uchastvujuschuju-v-popytke-kontrnastuplenija.html">Military Review</a>
Major-General Popov praised the 58 Combined Arms Army units that laid the minefields
 The minefield undeniably checked the Ukrainian advance
and the ensuing chaos led to the advance&#8217;s collapse
The Russians were aware a Ukrainian advance was underway
 It was possible to cue artillery fire effectively
 In Romanchuk&#8217;s account: &#8216;artillery units intended for counter-battery combat suppressed enemy artillery in firing positions
 And then they continued to hit the forces and means of the first echelon units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.&#8217;
Artillery fire starts landing on the Ukrainian armoured infantry company.  The video shows that one unidentified vehicle detonated.  Another two started smoking.  Source: <a href="https://topcor.ru/36041-rossijskaja-armija-prodolzhaet-zhech-tehniku-nato-uchastvujuschuju-v-popytke-kontrnastuplenija.html">Russian MOD</a>
Once the armoured infantry company stalled, &#8216;<a href="https://rg.ru/2023/06/08/komanduiushchij-aleksandr-romanchuk-rasskazal-podrobnosti-otrazheniia-nastupleniia-vsu.html">the crews of anti-tank missile systems</a> of special forces units
joined in the fire engagement of the enemy
At least one and probably more attack helicopter (Ka-52) sorties were cued.  Each sortie comprised two aircraft.  The aircraft launched Vikhr-guided missiles and <a href="https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/376083/?utm_source=warfiles.ru">reportedly enjoyed some success</a>
 The lack of air defence cover meant the attack helicopter crews could pick targets with impunity
Combat camera footage from a Ka-52   Source: <a href="https://iz.ru/1526610/2023-06-10/minoborony-rf-pokazalo-video-unichtozheniia-tekhniki-vsu-na-zaporozhskom-napravlenii">Izvestia</a>
<a href="https://rg.ru/2023/06/08/komanduiushchij-aleksandr-romanchuk-rasskazal-podrobnosti-otrazheniia-nastupleniia-vsu.html">According to Romanchuk</a>
&#8216;He [the Ukrainian armoured infantry company] was hit by bomber aircraft
as well as in the course of advancing to the line of transition to the attack.&#8217; If this is the case
there is no evidence the air raids were successful
 Russian Su-25SMs launch unguided rockets and drop &#8216;dumb bombs&#8217;
<a href="https://t.me/sashakots/40297">Russian milbloggers</a> reported superior Russian EW capabilities disrupted the Ukrainian attack, suppressing communications and GPS.  Ukrainian attempts to use EW against the Russian reconnaissance and control capabilities were reportedly <a href="https://t.me/epoddubny/16338">less successful</a>
it appears Lancet kamikaze drones were used to destroy soft-skin vehicles that had taken cover in a tree line
Source: <a href="https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20236101938-gDQN3.html">Izvestia</a>
 Ten per cent appear to have been lost in one action
 Soldiers need success to believe they can prevail and win
The breach of prepared defensive positions is a significant combat engineering operation
 The successful breach of minefields involves a combination of explosive hoses
 Both sides have now attempted minefield breaches just using ploughs (in the Russian case
the hapless 155th Marine Brigade at Vuhledar)
 The sappers need protection: the cover of night
 A breach is not a breach until the length of the safe lane is proven
 Only then does the exploitation force enter the breach
 Advancing behind mine ploughs in the hope that all mines have been cleared is risky
The abandoned Pearson mine plough; attempting a minefield breach just by ploughing was over-optimistic   Source: <a href="https://topcor.ru/36041-rossijskaja-armija-prodolzhaet-zhech-tehniku-nato-uchastvujuschuju-v-popytke-kontrnastuplenija.html">Military Review</a>
Other tactical lessons are old but seemingly unlearned
Tactical Lesson 2. A chief lesson of both World Wars is that you must &#8216;lean into the barrage&#8217;.  There is little value in &#8216;preparatory fires&#8217;.  The Ukrainian barrage was a waste of precious shells.  <a href="https://t.me/mod_russia/27225">According to Romanchuk</a>
Ukrainian forces telegraphed the ground attack with extensive artillery preparation of the battlefield
Dismounted Troops&#8217; vulnerability in the open
exacerbated today by the ubiquity of surveillance capabilities such as mini-drones
 Once the Ukrainian armoured infantry company became strung out
 On-call attack helicopters (Ka-52s) and close support aircraft (Su-25SMs) can inflict significant damage to stranded vehicles
Sergio Miller is a retired British Army Intelligence Corps officer
 He was a regular contributor and book reviewer forBritish Army Review
 He is the author of a two-part history of the Vietnam War (Osprey/Bloomsbury) and is currently drafting a history of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
More than 100 participants of Russia&rsquo;s war in Ukraine are running in the ruling,&nbsp;pro-Kremlin party&rsquo;s primary ahead of this fall&rsquo;s regional elections, the Kommersant business daily&nbsp;<a href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5999940">reported</a> Tuesday
Fifty-one of the 101 candidates in the United Russia party&rsquo;s primaries are combat veterans
28 of whom are currently on the battlefield
Another&nbsp;47 candidates are humanitarian volunteers who have worked in Russia-held areas of Ukraine
An unnamed party source quoted by Kommersant expressed confidence that the nominees would become full-fledged candidates for this fall&rsquo;s regional ballot
&ldquo;It would be strange if the party announced that 100 combatants were participating in the primaries and most of them lost,&rdquo; they said
Kommersant notes that some of the servicemen
volunteers and those mobilized during last fall&rsquo;s "partial" draft of reservists
Many of the candidates are reportedly running for office for the first time
Twenty-six current regional deputies have also taken part in what the Kremlin calls its &ldquo;special military operation&rdquo; in Ukraine
United Russia&rsquo;s seven-day primaries kicked off on Monday
Dozens of regions across Russia are holding elections in September
with members of 16 regional parliaments and 18 governors directly elected by the public
United Russia says the &ldquo;special military operation&rdquo; combatants and volunteers are standing for office in 30 Russian regions
including in the Ukrainian territories Russia claims to have annexed
are expected to serve as a &ldquo;testing ground&rdquo; for the 2024 presidential ballot where Vladimir Putin is expected to seek his fifth overall term
Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization
criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution
This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia
The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate
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independent journalism in the face of repression
has come with news of the killing of the mayor of Hostomel
In the south-eastern oblast of Zaporizhzhia
six towns have been taken by Russian forces
as Moscow has promised a humanitarian corridor to Russia to civilians in strategic cities defending themselves against the invaders
Ukrainian public media Ukrinform and British public broadcaster BBC report
<a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3422470-russian-invaders-kill-hostomel-mayor.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ukrinform announced</a> the killing of the head of the Hostomel community
was killed while handing out bread to the hungry and medicine to the sick
comforting the burnt and consoling the desperate
along with his comrades-in-arms Ruslan Karpenko and Ivan Zoria,» the statement unveiled
Read also: <a title="Polish Ambassador to Ukraine continues to work in Kyiv as last one" href="https://bnn-news.com/polish-ambassador-to-ukraine-continues-to-work-in-kyiv-as-last-one-232996" target="_blank" rel="bookmark noopener">Polish Ambassador to Ukraine continues to work in Kyiv as last one</a>
In Zaporizhzhia oblast, the towns of Polohy, Vasylivka, Tokmak, Enerhodar, Berdyansk and Melitopol are temporarily occupied, <a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3422452-six-cities-in-zaporizhzhia-region-temporarily-occupied-administration.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to the military administration of the south-eastern region</a>
It added that near the settlements of Huliaipole
Orikhiv and in the direction of Vasylivka-Balabino
the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting a defensive operation and called on local population to join territorial defence forces
Ivan Fedorov, the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, said this in a post on <a href="https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_zp/16321" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Telegram</a>
&ldquo;Two people were killed and one more was wounded as a result of enemy attacks in the Polohy district,&rdquo; he wrote
The enemy carried out five air strikes on Huliaipole
As many as 279 UAVs of various modifications attacked Lysohirka
and shelled Kamianske and Novodarivka with 10 MLRS attacks
an enemy attack drone struck a police car in the Polohy district in the Zaporizhzhia region
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More information about Cassini can be found here:
<a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/cassini">https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/cassini</a>
<a href="mailto:gretchen.p.mccartney@jpl.nasa.gov" target="_blank">gretchen.p.mccartney@jpl.nasa.gov</a>
<a href="mailto:joanna.r.wendel@nasa.gov" target="_blank">joanna.r.wendel@nasa.gov</a>
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As Ukraine’s counteroffensive main thrust begins
it appears Ukraine is making two real primary thrusts: one directly towards Tokmak around Robotyne
and one further east south of Velyka Novosilka
The goal of the offensive from Robotyne is apparent and well defined: to advance around 25km to Tokmak and liberate this railway hub
I discussed <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/18/2164565/-Quick-Explainer-Why-Tokmak-is-as-important-as-Izium-Lyman-or-Kupiansk" target="_blank">Tokmak’s importance in a past Explainer in detail.</a>
Ukraine can isolate southern Ukraine from Russian forces on the Eastern Front and advance on Melitopol
then Crimea while protecting its flank economically
What is considerably less well-defined is what would happen if Ukraine were able to penetrate Russia’s main and only line of defense in the Velyka Novosilka area.&nbsp; Capturing Staromaiorske puts Ukraine just 8km (5 miles) from the only fortified defense line
and three villages (Urozhaine,&nbsp;Zavitne Bazhannya
Staromlynivka) from securing the main highway leading up to the defenses
There are essentially two strategic prizes beyond the defensive lines in the shorter term—Zachativka to the southeast
which would be an offensive move aimed at maximal disruption for Russian defenses and logistics
which would help shore up Ukrainian logistics for an advance much further south
A quick look at a railway map shows the logistical importance of both these cities
Zachativka controls the only east-west link between Southern Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine
much like one element of Tokmak’s importance
Capturing Polohy from the flank or behind would allow Ukraine to bypass the multilayered defenses placed on this major rail hub
allowing Ukraine easier routes of rail transportation towards the south—a likely must for Ukraine to advance on Berdyansk or Mariupol
Ukraine’s simultaneous advances to the west and the east of Polohy are probably aimed at bracketing this area and isolating
aimed at making capturing this crucial area easier
I’d like to go deeper into the importance of Zachativka and Tokmak
in particular why severing the East/West Russian rail connection is a big deal in itself
This is a rough representation of the rail system in Southern Ukraine that connects Crimea (in the southwest) to the Eastern Front
This suggests that Russia was clustering a large proportion of its operational reserves in this immediate vicinity
A quick look at the map shows why Berdyanks and Mariupol are great locations for a central Russian reserve force
A quick few hours' train ride can put them on their way to Robotyne or to the Eastern Front
You can get from Mariupol to close to Kherson by train in about half a day
it’s a centralized location that can easily allow Russia to move reserve forces to any area on the battlefield
Russia could certainly hold a strategic reserve in Krasnodar or Rostov-on-Don that could get a force within a day or two to either the Southern or Eastern theater
But instead of maintaining an operation reserve that can get to the fighting in either theater in 5-6 hours
This is too slow to serve as any kind of operation reserve
that needs to be ready to be deployed within a matter of hours
Russia would no longer be able to use Berdyansk and Melitopol as a centralized holding areas for their operational reserve forces
They will likely be forced to split this force apart
keeping one portion in Eastern Ukraine as a reserve force
and another in Southern Ukraine—significantly weakening available reserve forces in both theaters due to a lack of centralization
Ukraine could launch a concentrated assault in the other direction
Severing the east/west rail connection effectively isolates both wings of the Russian Army
preventing them from supporting each other.&nbsp; This would have a major strategic effect on Russian force flexibility and responsiveness
further accentuating Ukraine’s advantages of interior lines
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Russians are attempting to avoid participation in assault operations towards the city of Huliaipole in the Polohy district of the Zaporizhzhia region, fearing significant losses. Instances of sabotage of the offensive, including the damaging of military equipment, have been reported, according to<a href="https://t.me/atesh_ua/6533" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> the ATESH partisan movement.</a>
According to underground movement representatives
their agents from the 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces (35th Russian Army) reported such incidents
It is noted that soldiers from this brigade "deliberately damaged military equipment to avoid the assault on Huliaipole." In addition
the Russians are pouring water instead of fuel and "deliberately disabling motorcycles in various ways."
"The brigade leadership has already started an investigation
but the number of dissatisfied personnel is only growing
Russian soldiers are well aware that they are marching to slaughter and are doing everything to save their lives," the ATESH publication states
Ukrainian partisans urged Russian invaders to break their equipment and refuse to follow orders
frequently comes under enemy shelling using various types of weapons
Huliaipole and the front line on the DeepState project map
about 6 km from the city to the front line (photo: screenshot deepstatemap.live)
In the evening report of March 16, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-ukraine-war-frontline-update-as-of-1742160584.html">Russians carried out attacks in the areas of Pryvillya, Vilyke Pole, and in the direction of Novopillia on the Huliaipole axis.</a> The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all 6 attacks of the occupiers
Military leadership also shared that Russians fired unguided aviation rockets at Novopillia
In January, the head of the Zaporizhzhia regional military administration, Ivan Fedorov, mentioned in an interview that <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/putin-prepares-offensive-on-zaporizhzhia-1736430940.html">Vladimir Putin had planned an offensive on Zaporizhzhia but had to abandon those plans.</a>
Fedorov also noted that a multi-layered defense system is being built in the region
covering not only the defense lines directly on the front line but also a circular defense around Orikhiv
information began to spread about Russia's preparations for a large-scale offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region
there were reports of a potential threat to the city of Zaporizhzhia
Meanwhile, in November last year, the Ukrainian Defense Forces reported that <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-has-massed-forces-in-zaporizhzhia-1732735013.html">Russians had intensified activities in the Zaporizhzhia region.</a> However
they lack the strength for a major offensive
Additionally, <a href="https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/analytics/russia-prepares-offensive-on-kherson-and-1733125538.html">Russians' operation in the Zaporizhzhia region was expected to begin around December 5.</a>
Russian invaders shot two adults and children in Zaporizhzhia
Russian invaders executed parents and their two minor children in Ocheret-Zoria village
The civilians were killed on November 17th in Ocheret-Zoria village
Russian invaders executed Darmobid family: the father – Oleksnadr
OSINT investigators have identified the war criminals
They are the military servicemen of 57th Regiment of 5th Motor Rifle Division of 58th Army of the Russian Federation
The local residents and invasion army soldiers had an argument
during which the invaders shot Oleksandr and his two minor children
the soldiers robbed the house taking away the cash and valuable belongings
This was confirmed by the victims’ relatives
•  Kasyan Ivan Yuryevich born in 1991 in Gorodna
•  Tolstikov Andrey Yuryevich born in 1986 in Zhukovo
<a href="https://tsn.ua/en/ato/they-wanted-to-seize-kyiv-and-kill-thousands-of-people-presidential-office-disclosed-russia-s-terrible-plans-on-occupation-of-ukraine-2214895.html" rel="follow">They Wanted to Seize Kyiv and Kill Thousands of People: Presidential Office Disclosed Russia’s Terrible Plans on Occupation of Ukraine</a>
<a href="https://tsn.ua/en/ato/putin-cannot-be-a-subject-of-dialogue-with-the-world-podoliak-2214856.html" rel="follow">Putin Cannot Be a Subject of Dialogue with the World – Podoliak</a>
<a href="https://tsn.ua/en/ato/there-were-animal-eyes-in-the-packages-ukrainian-diplomatic-missions-in-six-countries-have-received-bloody-parcels-2214847.html" rel="follow">"There Were Animal Eyes in the Packages”: Ukrainian Diplomatic Missions in Six Countries Have Received Bloody Parcels</a>
<a href="https://tsn.ua/en/ato/civilized-world-needs-security-guarantees-from-barbaric-intentions-of-post-putin-russia-podoliak-about-macron-s-statement-2216149.html" rel="follow">Civilized World Needs "Security Guarantees" from Barbaric Intentions of post-Putin Russia— Podoliak about Macron’s Statement </a>
<a href="https://tsn.ua/en/ato/it-s-a-weak-position-zelenskyi-about-russian-oil-price-cap-at-60-usd-per-barrel-2216158.html" rel="follow">It’s a Weak Position: Zelenskyi about Russian Oil Price Cap at 60 USD per Barrel</a>
<a href="https://tsn.ua/en/ato/western-partners-have-never-shared-intelligence-about-russian-invasion-with-ukraine-zelenskyi-2216626.html" rel="follow">Western Partners Have Never Shared Intelligence about Russian Invasion with Ukraine – Zelenskyi  </a>
The Ukrainian government says it killed 600 members of Russian forces in one day
It also announced that Conservative party headquarters located in Ukraine was destroyed on Friday
The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said it is estimating that 600 of Russian personnel were killed on Friday
This brings the total loss since February 2022 to 268,140
said the headquarters of the United Russia Political Party in Polohy
Ukraine was also destroyed in an attack on Friday
Fedorov said on the Telegram messaging app that local residents described Russians as “burned out” of the headquarters amid the “hellish pseudo-elections”
he said: “Some went to the hospital and some went straight to the morgue.”
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