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Russia's Defense Ministry said Tuesday that its forces captured the eastern Ukrainian town of Selydove as part of a wider push to seize the nearby logistics hub of Pokrovsk
The capture of the frontline town of Selydove
located around 18 kilometers (10 miles) southeast of Pokrovsk
which has gradually taken large swaths of territory in the Donetsk region
the town of Selidovo in the Donetsk region is fully liberated," Russia's Defense Ministry said
The announcement came shortly after Moscow said it captured the two nearby villages of Bogoyavlenka and Katerynivka
which are all located south of Selydove and near the Ukrainian-held industrial town of Kurakhove
Selydove had a population of around 20,000 before Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago
The town was home to the only Donetsk region coal mine still under Kyiv's control
Russian forces have taken 478 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since the beginning of October
according to an AFP analysis of data from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War
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as Russia claims capture of SelydoveOctober 29
2024 8:43 PM5 min readA man walks past a crater and heavily damaged apartment building following a Russian aerial attack
by Ukraine faces a "pretty grim" situation in Donetsk Oblast in the east of the country as Russian forces make some of their swiftest advances since the summer of 2022
"The last week has been extremely difficult for the Ukrainians — the Russians were able to breach the Ukrainian defenses in various areas," Emil Kastehelmi
an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group
Russia's long and grinding campaign in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region has dramatically gained pace in recent days
with Kastehelmi saying Moscow's forces have advanced "faster than it has been any time after the summer of 2022."
"So we're looking at really large movements on the front lines
especially when put into the context of this whole full-scale invasion," he added
Russia’s Defense Ministry on Oct. 29 claimed the capture of Selydove
a town close to the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk
While Kyiv has yet to comment on the situation
experts and OSINT analysts have all but confirmed the town has fallen
The Deep State OSINT project map based on data from Oct
28 showed most of Selydove under Russian control
with around a third depicted as a disputed gray zone
An analysis of Deep State data by the independent Russian news outlet Agentsvo said Russia had taken 196.1 square kilometers (75.7 square miles) during the week of Oct
"The Russian army has not had such a rapid weekly advance since at least the beginning of this year," it said in a post on Telegram
Throughout 2024, Ukraine has faced a challenging situation in defending frontlines stretching from the country’s northeast to southern regions, particularly in the far eastern Donetsk Oblast
where Russia has consistently concentrated its offensive
Following Ukraine's withdrawal from Vuhledar in early October, Russian forces have been focusing their efforts against the Donetsk Oblast towns of Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove
where outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian soldiers are slowly losing ground under Russian pressure
And the fall of Selydove would be dire news for Pokrovsk
lying only around 18 kilometers (11 miles) northwest
towards which Russian forces have been inching for the past couple of months
"The city of Selydove is now most likely totally lost," Kastehelmi said
"There could be some Ukrainians in the western parts
"That’s the biggest city to fall after Avdiivka in the winter
one of the biggest dangers now facing Ukrainian troops is that the positions they are now being forced to fall back to are not as heavily fortified as the positions they're withdrawing from
A woman hugs a friend after being evacuated from the village of Selydove
Donetsk Oblast due to the rapid advance of Russian troops in Pokrovsk
(Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)A view of the destroyed residential area as Ukrainian emergency services and police offer evacuations to civilians living near the town of Selydove due to the rapid advance of Russian troops in the direction of Selydove
(Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)Asked if he believed the situation could snowball
he said there's "a real danger of that."
This would depend on Russian forces having the resources and reserves to exploit potential gaps in the Ukrainian defenses
but Kastehelmi said there haven't been any signs of that so far
"Even though the Russians have pushed 10 kilometers in a week
we still haven't seen something that by definition would be a breakthrough."
Russian President Vladimir Putin still has a long way to go before achieving his stated goal of taking all of the Donbas
Russia currently occupies all of the Luhansk Oblast
and most of Donetsk Oblast except the last big remaining cities under Ukrainian control
Russia would have to take an additional 10,000 square kilometers (3,860 square miles) of territory to capture all of the Donbas
It's also not been without a heavy cost for Russian forces. Casualties over October may reach around 40,000
the deputy commander of the Estonian Military Intelligence Center
But with winter approaching, the uncertainty surrounding next week's U.S. presidential election and future American weaponry supplies, and Ukraine's army dealing with its own manpower and morale issues
it's an especially precarious time for Kyiv
"This is a pretty grim situation for the Ukrainians," Kastehelmi said
Chris York is news operations editor at the Kyiv Independent
he spent nearly a decade working for HuffPost UK
According to Ukrinform, the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group of Forces reported the strike on Telegram
sharing a video that highlights the devastating impact of coordinated operations among different Ukrainian military units
footage of the burning and exploding Russian ammunition depot quickly spread across social media
The Khortytsia Group of Forces released unique reconnaissance visuals and detailed how these targets were destroyed
The Solntsepyok is a heavy thermobaric multiple-launch rocket system designed to fire incendiary or thermobaric warheads
Russian forces deploy it against Ukrainian infantry and lightly armored vehicles
Illustrative photo: Ukrainian Armed Forces
While citing and using any materials on the Internet
links to the website ukrinform.net not lower than the first paragraph are mandatory
citing the translated materials of foreign media outlets is possible only if there is a link to the website ukrinform.net and the website of a foreign media outlet
Materials marked as "Advertisement" or with a disclaimer reading "The material has been posted in accordance with Part 3 of Article 9 of the Law of Ukraine "On Advertising" No
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The Ukrainian Defense of Pokrovsk Has Compelled Russia to Change Its Approach in Eastern Ukraine
Russian forces launched offensive operations intended to seize Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast during Spring 2024 at the moment of greatest constraints on Ukraine's manpower and materiel following the suspension of US assistance in Fall 2023
Russian forces have not taken Pokrovsk after eight months of grinding but consistent advances in western Donetsk Oblast
based on the integration of successful Ukrainian drone innovators and operators with ground forces combined with constraints on Russia's strategic and operational-level manpower and materiel reserves have forced the Russian military command to abandon its original campaign design of a frontal assault on Pokrovsk
The Russian military command is currently attempting to envelop Pokrovsk from the southwest via Selydove and to even out the frontline west of Kurakhove and north of Vuhledar
Russian forces recently seized Selydove and are currently leveraging the seizure of Vuhledar to advance towards Kurakhove
but Russian advances have come at very high costs in troops and armored vehicles and months of time
Ukrainian drone operations continue to play a critical role in constraining Russian mechanized maneuver and preventing Russian forces from fully exploiting Ukraine's ongoing manpower constraints
Ukraine’s ability to stave off the seizure of Pokrovsk thus far and force the Russian military to divert its efforts to advances in arguably the least operationally significant sector of the frontline is a positive indicator of Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting this war despite the challenges Ukraine faces and the setbacks it has suffered
Russian forces are currently attempting to conduct two simultaneous and supporting offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver via Selydove and to level the frontline from Pokrovsk to Yasna Polyana in order to collapse the Ukrainian salient west of Donetsk City and set conditions for future
possibly more operationally significant gains in Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces have consistently been advancing in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions since March 2024
but have yet to make operationally significant advances in either direction
which are relevant at the tactical level of war in the near vicinity of fighting
which are significant at the operational level of war and affect large sectors of the entire frontline
successfully diverted Russian forces from a direct assault on Pokrovsk and convinced the Russian military command to expend manpower
equipment and time on less operationally significant gains in western Donetsk Oblast
and subsequent Russian advances north of Vuhledar are not yet operationally significant gains and have cost the Russians tremendous manpower and materiel losses
Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop the ongoing Russian offensive operations
although Ukraine’s ability to inflict notable manpower and materiel losses on the Russian military continues to depend on the provision of sufficient and regular Western military assistance
Significant Russian advances in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions would be but one step in Russia’s ongoing offensive campaign to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and would not portend the immediate collapse of the frontline in Donetsk or throughout Ukraine
Ukrainian drone operations continue to be the backbone of Ukraine's war effort
particularly in western Donetsk Oblast where successful Ukrainian drone operations contributed to forcing the Russian military command to reorient its primary operational effort for 2024
Ongoing Ukrainian manpower constraints and morale issues are currently creating vulnerabilities in Ukraine's defensive lines
and Russia has consistently underestimated the impact and influence of Ukraine’s asymmetric drone capabilities and innovations throughout the war
and evidence is mounting that Russia cannot sustain the current rate of armored vehicle and tank losses in the medium term.[5] Ukrainian drone operators
have successfully degraded Russian forces’ mechanized capabilities and have slowed Russian forces’ ability to make gains by forcing Russian infantry to advance primarily at foot pace.[6] The integration of Ukrainian drone operations with sufficiently resourced artillery and committed Ukrainian infantry units is and will remain essential in defending against Russian advances throughout the frontline
The seizure of Pokrovsk and leveling of the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast are two subordinate efforts of the Kremlin's wider campaign to seize the remainder of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts
Putin identified the complete seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as a priority goal of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and Russian officials have reiterated this goal over the past three years.[7] Western and Ukrainian sources assessed in 2023 and 2024 that Russia intended to seize the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk by the end of 2024.[8] Russian offensive operations in the Siversk
and Velyka Novosilka directions are currently all aimed at seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces intensified localized assaults in the Velyka Novosilka and Siversk directions in October and November 2024 respectively
but it remains unclear if the Russian military command is willing to allocate the manpower necessary to launch a more concerted offensive operation or make operationally significant advances in these lower priority directions.[9] Russian advances near Chasiv Yar have largely stalled in 2024
and Russian forces have yet to advance into the center of the settlement
although the settlement remains at high risk
ISW has previously assessed that the Russian offensive effort to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances in Donetsk Oblast as the seizure of Chasiv Yar would likely allow Russian forces to launch subsequent offensive operations against Ukraine’s fortress belt – a group of major cities that form a significant defensive belt in Donetsk Oblast.[10] The Russian military command has
opted to prioritize offensive operations in the Toretsk
which provide Russian forces with less direct paths to operationally significant Ukrainian objects
Russian forces have yet to make operationally significant advances in exchange for notable manpower and materiel losses in 2024
Russian forces seized a little over 2,000 square kilometers in Ukraine between October 1
mostly in fields and small settlements and towns
They must seize an additional 9,322 square kilometers including several large urban areas in order to take the remainder of Donetsk Oblast as of November 14
and the seizure of Pokrovsk will likely only result in several tens of additional square kilometers
Assessed Russian positions south of Pokrovsk near Vyshneve and Sontsivka are currently Russian forces’ closest positions to the Donetsk Oblast administrative boundary in the Toretsk
or Kurakhove directions and are roughly 22-23 kilometers from the boundary as of November 14
Russian advances in the Toretsk direction have been slow in 2024
as Russian forces have largely spent the last five months struggling through highly urbanized areas
and Russian forces’ rate of advance is unlikely to increase significantly in this sector until Russian forces advance through Toretsk and its more urbanized suburbs
Russian gains in the Kurakhove pocket will result in additional territorial advances
but these gains do not shift Russian positions significantly closer to the Donetsk Oblast administrative boundaries than Russian forces' current closest assessed point of advance
Russian forces could attempt to connect the Chasiv Yar
and Pokrovsk-Kurakhove efforts in the future by trying to advance north from Pokrovsk towards Toretsk and to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from positions in Toretsk
although it would likely take the Russian military months to make gains of this scale at its current rate of advance.[11] It remains unclear if Russian forces would be sufficiently combat capable to conduct such an operation without an operational pause to reconstitute after evening out the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast and seizing Pokrovsk
Russian forces launched offensive operations intended to seize Pokrovsk during Spring 2024 following the seizure of Avdiivka and at a moment when Ukraine's manpower and materiel constraints reached their peak
Russian forces intensified offensive operations in Pokrovsk Raion in October 2023 when they began the four-month-long battle for Avdiivka and maintained a consistent tempo of operations in the area until seizing Avdiivka on February 17
partially driven by delays in Western-provided military assistance
between March and June 2024 and made consistent gains west of Avdiivka in the direction of Pokrovsk.[15] Ukrainian officials and frontline servicemembers consistently warned about an increasing disparity between Russian and Ukrainian artillery use during this time and suggested that Ukrainian forces were increasingly husbanding ammunition and relying on drone operators to defend against Russian infantry and mechanized assaults.[16]
Russia’s likely intended primary offensive effort for Summer 2024 was a direct assault on Pokrovsk following the railway line west of Avdiivka and the seizure of both Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk
The Avdiivka-Ocheretyne-Zhelanne-Novohrovika-Pokrovsk railway line proved to be an advantageous path for Russian advances during Spring and Summer 2024
as settlements along the railway line were critical lynchpins in Ukraine’s defensive lines in this direction
Russian forces advanced northwest from Avdiivka along the railway line and west from Avdiivka towards Ukraine’s main defensive line along the Berdychi-Orlivka-Vodyane line in March and April 2024
and elements of the Russian Central Grouping of Forces reportedly exploited a bungled Ukrainian rotation to make a narrow penetration near Ocheretyne in late April 2024.[17] The Russian exploitation force
mainly comprised of Central Military District [CMD] brigades and elements of the 51st CAA
continued to advance west of Ocheretyne in May and June 2024 and forced Ukrainian forces to retreat from the Berdychi-Orlivka-Tonenke to more defensible positions along the Prohres-Skuchne-Karlivka line on the east (left) bank of the Vovcha River.[18] Russian materiel advantages peaked during May and June 2024
inhibiting Russian offensive operations in the area – and more effective Ukrainian drone operations in this direction likely played a role in the Russian military command’s decision to limit mechanized activity in this direction moving forward.[21
frontal assaults.[23] Russian milbloggers claimed on August 29 that likely Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups advanced into the southeastern outskirts of Myrnohrad (immediately east of Pokrovsk) and began small arms combat with Ukrainian forces in the town
but ISW has yet to observe confirmation of Russian forces operating in Myrnohrad.[24] These reports
suggest that Russian forces may have temporarily advanced into Myrnohrad and that Ukrainian forces later pushed Russian forces from the town and have consistently defended against Russian advances into the town since late August 2024
Russian advances along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka-Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk line stalled as of September 2024 as the Russian military command increasingly devoted manpower and resources to offensive operations along the Selydove-Hirnyk line and in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions
Russian forces also renewed offensive operations aimed at seizing Toretsk and intensified offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City in June 2024
The Russian military command redeployed some elements of the Russian Central Grouping of Forces and 51st CAA
including the CMD’s 27th Motorized Rifle Division
from the Pokrovsk direction to renewed assaults in the Toretsk direction in mid-June 2024.[25] The decision roughly doubled the length of the Central Grouping of forces area of responsibility (AOR) and drew some units away from the CMD’s exploitation force in the Pokrovsk direction.[26] The Russian military command likely intended to eliminate the Ukrainian salient in the Toretsk direction to deny Ukrainian forces the ability to shell rear Russian areas of the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk directions
but Russian forces have yet to make gains significant enough to deny Ukrainian artillery operations in the area as of November 2024.[27] Russian assaults in the Toretsk direction have been characterized by infantry-heavy assaults in highly urbanized areas that have slowed Russian advances – as Russian forces have historically struggled with urban combat in Ukraine.[28]
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi noted in mid-June 2024 that Russian forces were also concentrating efforts and assault units in the Kurakhove direction
The Russian military command amended its Summer 2024 campaign design likely after assessing that Russian forces were unlikely to seize Pokrovsk in a frontal assault and decided instead to attempt to envelop Pokrovsk from the south via Selydove and to intensify offensive operations west of Donetsk City and near Vuhledar in order to eliminate the Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast along the Hirnyk-Kurakhove-Vuhledar line
the Russian military command decided to attempt a turning maneuver via Selydove in order to avoid fighting through more built-up Ukrainian defenses immediately east of Pokrovsk and reprioritized leveling the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast
The Russian military command likely identified the seizure of Selydove
and Kurakhove and leveling of the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast as desired prerequisites for launching an intensified offensive effort against Pokrovsk itself
Shortening and leveling the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast will free up Russian troops currently attacking all along the Ukrainian pocket north and south of Kurakhove to redeploy to the Pokrovsk effort and will secure Russian forces’ southern flank for a renewed assault on Pokrovsk
The Russian military command’s new campaign design sought to take advantage of the most effective tactics in each respective frontline sector
A Ukrainian drone operator told the Associated Press (AP) in August 2024 that Russian forces had been relatively successful in the Pokrovsk direction because they were conducting ground attacks in groups of two to four soldiers under the cover of trees
making them harder for Ukrainian drone operators to detect.[33] An official in a Ukrainian brigade operating near Selydove reported in mid-September 2024 that Russian forces began moving in small infantry groups and using windbreaks and buildings for cover instead of conducting head-on frontal assaults with larger groups.[34] A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor noted on November 16 that small
infantry-led assaults are not the most efficient tactic for expedient advances in the rural settlements and fields near Selydove
where Russian forces have very little coverage from Ukrainian drone operations.[35] The milblogger suggested that Ukrainian drone operations are constraining Russian forces' ability to bring reinforcements and supplies to forward positions
Russian forces’ ability to utilize windbreaks and forested areas as cover against Ukrainian drone operators and advance into vulnerable Ukrainian positions has been a critical aspect of their ability to advance in the Pokrovsk direction in recent months
particularly since Russian forces have not widely utilized armored vehicles in this area.[36] Russian forces may increase their use of armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk direction if muddy ground conditions begin to significantly constrain infantry movement
Russian mechanized activity in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions has been notably more successful than in the Pokrovsk direction or other sectors of the frontline
and more effective mechanized activity has facilitated marginally more rapid Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast
ISW observed a notable intensification in Russian mechanized activity in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions in October 2024
when Russian forces began conducting regular platoon- to battalion-sized mechanized assaults in these directions.[37] Russian mechanized assaults in this direction have been significantly more successful than in other frontline sectors
Russian mechanized assaults frequently fail to result in advances and typically only result in armored vehicles losses in most sectors of the frontline
but Russian mechanized activity in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions has repeatedly resulted in several kilometers of advances
Russian forces notably advanced several kilometers to the outskirts of Hostre (northeast of Kurakhove) in September 2024
and Russian mechanized activity has been the foundation of Russian advances north and northwest of Vuhledar in October and November 2024.[38] Russian mechanized activity in these directions is not indicative of a substantial improvement in Russian forces’ ability to conduct the kind of rapid mechanized maneuver that would be necessary to restore mechanized maneuver to the battlefield at scale
The most successful Russian assaults in this area still result in high armored vehicle losses in exchange for a few kilometers of gains
but the increased efficacy of Russian mechanized activity in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions is still notable
Recent mechanized assaults in September and November 2024 also resulted in tactically significant Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction
and the Russian miliary may be looking to replicate the conditions that have increased the efficacy of mechanized activity in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions in other areas of the frontline.[39]
Russian forces also continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction during late Summer and Fall 2024
but the pace of Russian advances has remained slow as Russian forces have largely relied on infantry to make advances in this direction.[40] Ukrainian forces have consistently and successfully counterattacked in the Toretsk direction more than in any other sector of western Donetsk Oblast
and successful Ukrainian counterattacks have helped limit the scope and rate of Russian advances in the area.[41] ISW assessed that Russian forces have seized 23.1 percent of Toretsk itself as of November 13 and Russian forces have advanced fewer than 10 kilometers in this direction from the June 2024 frontline as of November 14
Russian forces in Toretsk do not currently pose any significant threat to Ukrainian positions west of Toretsk and have likely taken notable manpower losses in exchange for these marginal gains as in other frontline sectors
The Russian military command’s new campaign design also may have sought to minimize the impact of increased Russian manpower constraints caused by the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024
Russian authorities were reportedly aware of the threat of a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast in the months leading up to August 2024
but the incursion has undoubtably tested Russia’s ability to generate and redeploy forces in response to an unexpected attack.[42] ISW has observed indications that the Russian military command redeployed forces from almost all sectors of the frontline
including elements of one unit from the Pokrovsk direction
to Kursk Oblast to address the incursion.[43] Russian forces have redeployed elements of several elite formations to Kursk Oblast
including: the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF])
155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet
and 11th and 83rd VDV brigades.[44] The Russian military command generally regards VDV and naval infantry elements as more “elite” forces (despite the fact that these forces have been degraded and misused during the war) and tends to deploy these forces to prioritized directions.[45] The Russian military command would have likely redeployed these forces to reinforce efforts in the Pokrovsk direction if Ukrainian forces had not launched the Kursk incursion in August 2024
Ukrainian officials noted in September 2024 that the incursion “slowed” Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast and complicated Russia’s plans for offensive operations
including in Russia’s “main direction” – likely referring to the Pokrovsk direction.[46] Russian forces notably launched their offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast in mid-May 2024 several months before the incursion
and the operation has also placed increased pressure on Russia’s manpower reserves by committing forces that could have otherwise fought in the Pokrovsk offensive.[47] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated in October 2024 that the Russian military command originally intended to commit most of Russia's manpower reserves to the Kharkiv and Pokrovsk-Toretsk directions during late Summer and Fall 2024
but that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and slowing Russian advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast complicated this plan.[48]
Recent Russian advances and Russian forces’ ability to exploit the recent seizure of Selydove and Vuhledar could force Ukrainian forces to withdraw to more defensible positions in western Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces have not turned north towards Pokrovsk following the seizure of Selydove but rather have continued to advance south as Russian forces operating southeast of Selydove intensified offensive operations along the Tsukuryne-Hirnyk-Kurakhivka line[49] Russian forces operating southeast of Selydove currently appear to be attempting to eliminate the Ukrainian salient north of the Kurakhivske Reservoir and to envelop Kurakhove from the reservoir’s northwestern edge
Russian positions in Sontsivka (south of Selydove) are currently four kilometers from the northwestern edge of the reservoir
and it remains unclear how long Ukrainian forces operating east of the Sontsivka-Stary Terny line will be able to hold positions in this small salient
Russian forces have also successfully exploited the seizure of Vuhledar to make tactically significant advances south of Kurakhove
and recent Russian advances in the area may force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the fields southeast and south of Kurakhove to more defensible positions further west[50]
A more level frontline in western Donetsk Oblast will provide Russian forces a more easily defensible flank should they turn north and attempt to envelop Toretsk from the west and attack Kostyantynivka and Ukraine's fortress belt from the south
but the leveling of the frontline does not immediately portend such advances
Russian forces could also attempt to advance further towards the Donetsk Oblast administrative boundaries along the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia City H-15 highway or conduct an assault on Velyka Novosilka from the east
Russian forces are unlikely to be sufficiently combat effective to undertake a major offensive effort without conducting at least a temporary pause for rest and reconstitution
and several settlements west of Kurakhove could afford strong defensive positions for Ukrainian forces
In the unlikely event that Russian forces could advance to the Donetsk Oblast administrative boundary west of Kurakhove
and Toretsk directions are still roughly 70 kilometers from the Donetsk Oblast administrative boundary at their closest point
Russian forces remain unable to conduct the kind of rapid mechanized maneuver necessary to make advances to that magnitude with the kind of speed or surprise that could collapse Ukraine’s defenses in Donetsk Oblast
The seizure of Pokrovsk remains an important operational and informational goal for the Kremlin
and Russian forces will likely pursue the seizure of Pokrovsk in Winter 2024-25
and Kurakhove and improving Russia's drone operations during Winter 2024-25
as Russian forces currently "cannot advance" due to Ukrainian drone operations
The Russian military command will likely task Russian forces with seizing Pokrovsk should Russian forces successfully level the frontline between Selydove and Yasna Polyana (northwest of Vuhledar) in the coming weeks and months
although Russian forces may have to conduct a short operational pause to redeploy
and reconstitute before beginning the assault on Pokrovsk
The Russian military command is unlikely to abandon the seizure of Pokrovsk as a major objective as control over Pokrovsk would provide Russian forces with a defensible position that could support Russia’s envisioned new defensive line in western Donetsk Oblast
The Kremlin is also unlikely to support abandoning the seizure of Pokrovsk given how many lives and how much materiel Russia has expended in pursuit of the town
and the Kremlin likely intends to exaggerate the importance of seizing Pokrovsk to domestic and international audience as part of Putin’s ongoing narrative about the inevitability of Russian victory in Ukraine
Russia’s offensive effort to seize Pokrovsk and level the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast is emblematic of Putin's theory of victory
The Russian military command appears to have willingly abandoned its original campaign design and intention to make the CMD a rapid exploitation and maneuver force and accepted of the realities of positional warfare and slower Russian advances in the Pokrovsk
and Vuhledar directions.[53] It is too soon to judge the impact of this decision on the war’s eventual resolution
The Russian military command’s decision to embrace and exploit the characteristics of positional warfare are based on the assumption that Russia’s war machine
can outlast Ukraine and its Western allies
ISW has recently observed indications to the contrary
Russian forces lost roughly 80,000 troops during September and October 2024
but likely only recruited an estimated 60-70,000 into military service– indicating that the Russian military’s recruitment rates have begun to fall behind Russia’s previous one-to-one loss replacement rate.[54] Ukrainian and Western assessments repeatedly place Russian domestic production rates of tanks
and artillery systems far below estimated rates of loss for these systems in Ukraine.[55] Apathy towards the war and resistance to greater social and economic hardship also appears to be growing within Russian society as the war drags on – suggesting that it is also in the Kremlin’s interest to resolve the war as soon as possible in order to avoid exacerbating domestic discontent.[56]
Putin’s theory of victory does not account for these issues nor for the impact of Ukraine’s increasing asymmetric capabilities
Ukrainian forces have repeatedly demonstrated their commitment and ability to develop and employ alternative and asymmetric capabilities
to partially counter Russia's artillery advantage in Ukraine and to defend against Russian mechanized and infantry assaults
often generating outsized effects considering the inexpensive systems Ukrainian forces are employing
Ukrainian drone operators have played a key role in constraining Russian mechanized maneuver in western Donetsk Oblast and Russian infantry assaults throughout the frontline in Ukraine.[57] Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes against Russian oil depots and warehouses storing military equipment continue to complicate Russian logistics
force Russia to reallocate air defense assets
and burden Russia’s war chest.[58] Russian defeat
rests on Ukraine’s ability to further leverage these asymmetric capabilities to support successful ground operations and directly challenge Russian forces’ control over the theater-wide initiative.[59]
Ukrainian forces have stalled Russia's main offensive efforts for the Summer-Autumn 2024 campaign and forced the Russian military command to expend significant resources and valuable time on advances that have not brought Russian forces geographically closer to their main operational objective
Ukraine’s ability to trade space for time undermines the Kremlin's theory of victory and narrative of an inevitable Russian victory in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces have successfully stalled Russian forces near Chasiv Yar
and Pokrovsk for many months and continue to complicate Russian offensive operations in the Siversk and Lyman directions
Russian forces are currently exploiting localized Ukrainian vulnerabilities to advance in the Kurakhove and Vuhledar directions
but Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack into the flanks of advancing Russian forces in these directions.[60] The leveling of the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast does not bring Russian forces substantially closer to their main operational objective of seizing Pokrovsk and only brings Russian forces several kilometers closer to their longer-term objective of seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian forces have inflicted significant losses on the Russian military but must completely stop Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast or risk Russian forces eventually advancing into more operationally significant areas of Donetsk in the medium- to long-term
Ukraine’s ability to defend against more operationally significant Russian advances is still largely dependent on the delivery of timely Western aid and Ukraine's ability to overcome its manpower constraints
Ukraine will have an opportunity to contest the initiative following the future culmination of Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast if Ukraine receives sufficient and proactive Western military assistance
Previous delays in Western security assistance undermined Ukraine’s Summer 2023 counteroffensive effort and Ukraine’s ability to defend itself in Spring
and Fall 2024.[61] Delays and hesitation in Western aid only further convince Putin that his theory of victory is valid and embolden Putin to further escalate his war of aggression towards Ukraine and preparations for his future envisioned war against NATO
The West must fulfill its current pledges to Ukraine and proactively arm Ukraine in preparation for future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025 and beyond or face the risk of encouraging Putin’s aggressive and expansionist desires and the possible future where those desires turn further westward
[1] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16-2024
[2] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16-2024
[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukrainian-strikes-have-changed-russian-naval-operations-black-sea ; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine%20and%20the%20Problem%20of%20Restoring%20Maneuver%20in%20Contemporary%20War_final.pdf ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21-2024-0
[4] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2024
[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-9-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar100624
[7] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russia-likely-pursue-phased-invasion-unoccupied-ukrainian ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar033023
[8] https://isw.pub/UkrWar121523 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar050324
[9] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-3-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar101324
[10] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-13-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25-2024
[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021824
[13] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar021724 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27-2024
[14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-27-2024
[15] https://isw.pub/UkrWar032124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042724
[16] https://isw.pub/UkrWar031324 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041524 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-6-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041024
[17] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-24-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar031324 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-29-2024
[20] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28-2024 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-20-2024
[21] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4-2024
[22] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-25-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21-2024-0
[23] https://isw.pub/UkrWar082224 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar082724
[25] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-22-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-27-2024
[26] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2024
[27] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-27-2024
[28] https://wp.towson.edu/iajournal/2023/01/13/russias-response-to-the-challenges-of-urban-warfare-in-the-russo-ukrainian-war/ ; https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/04/russia-ukraine-urban-warfare-kyiv-mariupol/
[29] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-12-2024 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-14-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-29-2024
[30] https://isw.pub/UkrWar073024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024
[31] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2024 ; https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2063
[32] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2024
[33] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22-2024
[34] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-16-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-9-2024
[35] https://t.me/philologist_zov/1722 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-16-2024
[36] https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/08/europe/ukraine-military-morale-desertion-intl-cmd/index.html
[37] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-9-2024
[38] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-12-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar111124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar091324
[39] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-27-2024 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-23-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-14-2024
[40] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-12-2024
[41] https://isw.pub/UkrWar092424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar071524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar072724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar102924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar102524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar101724 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar101424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar101024
[43] https://isw.pub/UkrWar083124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar082524
[44] https://isw.pub/UkrWar081024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar081124 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21-2024-0 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar082224 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar082524 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar082624 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar083124
[45] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28-2023
[47] https://isw.pub/UkrWar052124 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar051024
[48] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-3-2024
[49] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar101824 ;
[51] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-7-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-28-2024
[52] https://t.me/rybar/65439 ; https://t.me/rtvimain/104838 ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN99eOO1074
[53] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/assessing-significance-current-russian-and-ukrainian-operations-course-war
[54] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-9-2024
[55] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-14-2024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar110924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar100624 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar073024
[56] https://isw.pub/UkrWar111424 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar102924 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar083024
[57] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21-2024-0 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-10-2024
[58] https://isw.pub/UkrWar101024 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar092424 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-22-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-9-2024
[59] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine%20and%20the%20Problem%20of%20Restoring%20Maneuver%20in%20Contemporary%20War_final.pdf
[61] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-winter-spring-2024-offensive-operation-kharkiv-luhansk-axis ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/how-delays-western-aid-gave-russia-initiative-ukrainian-counteroffensive-kharkiv
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#article-stream-0 .quote-embed .font-size p{font-size: 36px;}The Kara Dag Brigade this summer
eight miles southeast of the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast
The Russians recorded the prisoners under interrogation
The killing of the drone operators inspired a merciless Ukrainian counterattack that has inflicted heavy casualties on the Russian unit responsible for the murders
There’s no reason to believe the Ukrainians are reacting to the murders in Selydove with anything but equal fury
If the Russians are going to surround Pokrovsk
That explains why the Kremlin has been willing to accept heavy losses in the units attacking Selydove
The Russian central grouping of forces “is likely to capture Selydove in the coming days
but the occupation of the city does not mean the capture of Pokrovsk,” the Center for Defense Strategies predicted on Thursday
“It will lead to the depletion of the assault group
But the Kremlin has been recruiting 30,000 fresh troops a month to make good its losses in Ukraine
And thousands of North Korean troops have begun deploying in Kursk
freeing up Russian forces in that oblast to redeploy to other sectors
potentially including the Selydove-Pokrovsk axis
The situation was so dire late this summer that commanders in Kyiv had no choice but to send most of the national guard’s seven offensive brigades
The national guard belongs to Ukraine’s interior ministry
not the military—and normally handles internal security tasks
That the interior ministry has had to send its forces into direct combat speaks to the extent of the defense ministry’s manpower problems
The Center for Defense Strategies is confident the Ukrainians can hold Pokrovsk
which sits astride vital supply lines for the eastern front
“The Ukrainian defense of Pokrovsk and its approaches (primarily the railway and M30 highway) has already halted Russian advances toward the city,” the group reported
“and further attrition of the center operational grouping in this area will slow their progress
damaging Russian offensive prospects in Donetsk Oblast in the coming weeks.”
Other Ukrainian observers are less optimistic. “Ukraine is currently losing the war,” warned Tatarigami
founder of the analysis group Frontelligence Insight
“and the trend is negative unless drastic measures are taken.”
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A view of an empty and damaged Selydove
2024 at 12:03 PM EDTBookmarkSaveRussia’s troops have reportedly captured the last town before Pokrovsk
which is a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk Region
Footage appeared showing Russian soldiers at the office of the local city council
which operates in cooperation with Ukraine’s Defense Ministry
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Russian forces are on the verge of gaining control of a key city in eastern Ukraine
the Ukrainian military reported on Wednesday
adding that Moscow had attacked the town nearly two dozen times that day
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed Russia's "significant tactical advances into and around Selydove in recent days."
the ISW also noted that Moscow’s focus on securing the city has come at the expense of Russia's ability to sustain a meaningful offensive drive on the city of Pokrovsk — the Kremlin's top priority in the area
Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have advanced in northeastern and eastern parts of Selydove towards the city's centre
These advances may soon force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the area completely to avoid being trapped
The ISW concluded that Russia may well take Selydove in the coming days
this didn't necessarily mean that Pokrovsk would fall under Russian control next
the capture of Selydove is likely to have exhausted Russian forces and reduced their combat ability
which affect their capacities if they are ordered to pivot towards Pokrovsk
the office of Ukraine’s Prosecutor General reported that Russian soldiers killed four captured Ukrainian servicemen near Selydove
Four members of Ukraine's National Guard were fighting near the town when they were taken prisoner during a Russian attack on 6 October
"Russian soldiers filmed their interrogations
but when the positions were recaptured by Ukrainian forces on 7 October
The Prosecutor General's office has opened an investigation into the incident
When Russia sent a helicopter to rescue the pilot
Ukraine was there with drones to try to take out the Mi-8
Russian Su-25 was downed from MANPADS. There also were attempts to attack Russian evacuation Mi-8 helicopter with FPV but unfortunately it managed to escape. t.me/ombr_28/1797[image or embed]
Ukraine reportedly hit this Russian HQ with a JDAM
Selydove is a town southeast of Pokrovsk on the highway to Donetsk
Footage of Ukrainian strike on Russian-occupied Ukrainian Selydove.A headquarters of the Russian 35 brigade was located there. "Z-bloggers" complained of huge losses among officers It’s reported that the drone was launched by a lady,callsign "Ultra".She’s a geography teacher but joined the Army[image or embed]
✈️💣 The result of the airstrike on the headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces in Selydove, Donetsk region[image or embed]
Russian assault group in a Chinese golf cart drives across flat
I won’t spoil it by telling you the ending
But WARNING: Video shows Russians getting killed
A Russian assault group of about a dozen infantrymen launches a suicide attack on Ukrainian positions riding an unarmored buggy through an empty field swarming with FPV drones.[image or embed]
According to Russian channels, Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive, pushing Russian troops out of Kotlyne. Attacks also ongoing on Pishchane with mechanized units & infantry, backed by a swarm of FPV drones and 155mm artillery.[image or embed]
A huge amount of destroyed Russian equipment of various types on the side of one of hundreds of "roads of death" in Donetsk region.The "graveyard of Russian scrap metal"was filmed by a Russian soldier. The total number of destroyed vehicles on this short stretch of road is 90 units[image or embed]
🦅💥 "Soon we will have mobile fire groups with lasers that will shoot down the Shahed UAVs," — Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces Sukharevskyi[image or embed]
Ukraine presses forward with its offensive
Russian sources report on AFU advances in the Kursk bridgehead toward Fanaseyevka. The AFU has gained a foothold in Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka, unlike in past attacks. Russian forces struggle to hold ground due to weak entrenchment and premature success reports.[image or embed]
the enemy has not established a stable foothold there-artillery and drones are striking their infantry
if control over these positions is not quickly restored
the AFU may attempt another attack to build on their success
the main objective here is to capture the village of Ulanok and then advance toward Plekhey in order to eliminate the serious threat that Russian forces pose to Sudzha from the southwest
The primary reason for the AFU's current tactical success appears to be the insufficient entrenchment of Russian units in these settlements
as well as premature reports about supposed future successes
it seems that the Russian Armed Forces never had firm control over Cherkasskaya Konopelkg and Fangseyevka to begin with
yet reports claiming otherwise were sent up the chain-since it was assumed that control would be established soon
official recognition of the loss of control is being delayed-there's still a chance to quickly push the enemy out
but it's a major one—if the enemy launches a counterattack in this supposedly well-planned operation
positions that were formally secured but lacked sufficient troops (or have none at all) are instantly lost
potentially catching nearby units unprepared
The situation is such that North Koreans are supposedly being sent back into the fray after having pulled back due to heavy losses
A lot of UA sources mention that #DPRK forces were reactivated in the #Kursk AO
This is in direct response to the unexpected success of the AFU's ongoing counteroffensive and a critical shortage of Russian reserves
#OSINT #Russia #UkraineWar[image or embed]
the commander of the 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade
the unit responsible for the area where Ukraine successfully attacked.
Russian blogger Romanov is not sorry to see him go
Russian military blogger Romanov is claiming that the commander of Russia's 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade has been fired for and I quote "For Bullshit."This comes after the Ukrainian counter attack this morning in Kursk.t.me/romanov_92/4...[image or embed]
which was taken with such a fight and losses
is now again under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
New attempts are underway to enter this settlement
Makhnovka was abandoned by the 11th separate guards airborne assault brigade under the command of Colonel Pavel Filyaev
they were sitting in basements without any support
without food and most importantly without water
This is about the willpower and courage of a Russian soldier
We talked to a fighter who managed to roll back from Makhnovka - the stories are not for tke faint of heart
But what he talked about with particular trepidation was thirst
some kind soul remembered that our people were in Makhnovka and tried to pass water by drone
but three hundred grams for ten people did not really save the situation
There is information that in Makhnovka the khokhols took a lot of prisoners from the 11th brigade
we must be prepared for a new wave in the Telegram channels with our prisoners
But when you look at Filyaev's face - the impression that this is the face of a degenerate does not leave
We asked you to write something good about him
we can say that this post is about discrediting the Army
but no one discredits it more than people like Filyaev
Nikolayevo-Daryino is definitely and 100% ours
But here again we will have to start all over again
You have to admit that Russia has a very effective way to enforce compliance — do what we say or you go on a suicide assault
1/ The Russian army is reportedly forcing mobilised soldiers to either sign permanent contracts or be sent to die in assaults. The reasons are unclear, but it may be intended to prevent them demobilising if a ceasefire deal is reached. ⬇️[image or embed]
The combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to February 8, 2025[image or embed]
A car full of Russians meets a Russian tank
"Our tank drove over the guys and got the fu*k out of there
In Russian-occupied Selydove a Russian tank crushed a car with Russian soldiers for no reason whatsoever and drove away
No wonder Russia is "running out" of North Koreans and not just them.[image or embed]
A chemistry student threw a Molotov cocktail at an FSB building. He claims scammers took his money, then—posing as Ukrainian agents—promised to return it if he "tested FSB’s vigilance."[image or embed]
Images of a camouflaged TM-62 AT mine that is covered in spray-on polyurethane foam and painted to blend in with the road
The mines are delivered behind enemy lines using heavy-lift UAVs like the Baba Yaga drones
#OSINT #Russia #UkraineWar[image or embed]
When your armor has been all blown to shit and all you have is a Chinese golf cart
Ukrainian barbed wire defence lines. The use of such barriers is growing due to the increasing number of Russian infantry assaults without armored support. www.nytimes.com/2025/01/13/w...[image or embed]
you aren’t being serious about peace talks.
😵💫 Russia has refused to mediate with Switzerland in peace talks in Ukraine
"There can be no question of this until they change their anti-Russian course," the Russian ambassador to Switzerland said.[image or embed]
The Baltic states pulled the plug on electricity from Russia and that has implications for Russian-occupied Kaliningrad
Lithuania released footage of the literal cutting of powerlines transporting electricity from Russia.Russia-occupied Kaliningrad exclave is now on its own. There's still a gas pipeline going from Russia to Kaliningrad through Lithuania. Hopefully that's next.[image or embed]
this guy broke his foot while kicking in the door and later will be sent on a meat wave assault with his crutches
A Russian soldier in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian Kurakhove storms into a Ukrainian family's apartment, kicking the door down, presumably, to loot it.[image or embed]
Captain Konstantin Nagaiko, involved in ballistic missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine, in particular the murder of 59 Ukrainian civilians in the village of #Groza in the #Kharkiv region
battery commander of the 112th Division of the Missile Brigade of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (military unit 03333)
#OSINT #Russia #UkraineWar[image or embed]
Zelenskyy is also offering US businesses priority in rebuilding Ukraine
He clearly knows what buttons to push with Trump
🤝 Zelenskyy outlines his vision for "deal" with Trump on mineral resources, Reuters reports[image or embed]
There you go with Russian youth during the It’s-Only-Putin’s-War
But hey, it’s actually Ukrainians who need to be lectured on how they must “reject war” and just turn another cheek to this.[image or embed]
He’s hoping to get back out in the field and start filming again
A Reuters cameraman, Ivan Liubysh-Kirdei, suffered multiple injuries and was in a coma for a long time as a result of a Russian strike on the Sapfir (Sapphire) hotel in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, on August 25.[image or embed]
And finally, we leave you with Russia’s most recent contribution to culture
It’s catchy, but it’s no "All Your Base Are Belong To Us."
The performers behind Sigma Boy are 11-year-old “Betsy” (Svetlana Chertishcheva) and 12-year-old Maria Yankovskaya. This isn’t Betsy’s first rodeo; she scored her first viral hit three years earlier with Simple Dimple Pop It Squish
another bubbly earworm with more than 8 million views on YouTube
also has an impressive entertainment resume
hosting a show on Russia’s STS Kids channel while also blogging and singing
Sigma Boy appeared on YouTube on October 4
It’s not even a proper music video; all you see are 2D cutouts of Betsy and Maria swaying under fake snowflakes
The song belongs to the Internet’s growing supply of “brainrot content,” a universe of trash memes, perhaps most infamously Alexey Gerasimov’s Skibidi Toilet series
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The reported attack comes just days before Russia's Victory Day parade and three-day "truce."
MPs will be able to ask questions and learn more about the details of the agreement in meetings with Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko May 6-7
MP Serhii Sobolev told the news outlet Suspilne
The ratification vote is scheduled for May 8
Attacks against the border villages of Bilopillia and Vorozhba damaged civilian infrastructure and triggered emergency evacuations
the regional military administration reported
"I look forward to working with President Erdogan on getting the ridiculous
war between Russia and Ukraine ended — now!" U.S
Putin's Victory Day truce "doesn't sound like much
if you know where we started from," Trump told reporters at the White House on May 5
Far-right Euroskeptic candidate George Simion
head of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR)
Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan placed second with 20.99% of the vote
and the candidate from the ruling coalition
"It requires the continuation of contacts between Moscow and Washington
which have been launched and are now ongoing," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said
set to operate within the Council of Europe
will focus on Russia's political and military leaders
up to 20 Russian soldiers were killed and their equipment destroyed
The move represents an apparent violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions passed in the wake of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests
"We are ready to deepen our contribution to the training of the Ukrainian military," Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said on May 5
by A view of the empty and damaged town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)Russian forces are attempting to storm the Selydove sector in Donetsk Oblast
Selydove, with a pre-war population of nearly 21,000 people, is located 18 kilometers south (11 miles) of Pokrovsk
which has been a focal point of Russia's offensive in recent months in the Donetsk sector of the front line
According to the National Guard
Russian troops periodically conduct mechanized assaults near Selydove
involving from three to five armored vehicles
Ukrainian troops repelled 17 Russian assault attempts in the Pokrovsk sector over the past day, the statement read
The estimated advance of Russian forces near the town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast as of Oct
(DeepState/OpenStreetMaps)The news came amid claims spread by Russian propaganda that Ukrainian and Russian troops are fighting street-to-street battles on the outskirts of Selydove
When asked by the Kyiv Independent about the situation in the area
Ukraine has faced a challenging situation in defending the front line
where Russia has consistently concentrated its offensive potential
Following Ukraine's withdrawal from Vuhledar in early October, Russian forces have been focusing their efforts against the Donetsk Oblast towns of Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, where outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian soldiers are slowly losing ground under Russian pressure.
Kateryna Denisova works as a News Editor at the Kyiv Independent. She previously worked as a news editor at the NV media outlet for four years, covering mainly Ukrainian and international politics. Kateryna holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Taras Shevchenko University of Kyiv. She also was a fellow at journalism schools in the Czech Republic and Germany.
Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Hugh Lawson
#article-stream-0 .quote-embed .font-size p{font-size: 36px;}The Kara Dag Brigade in training
As Russian forces marched from the ruins of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine toward the Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk back in August
the Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv grew desperate
It had committed to sending most of its best available forces to bolster the Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast
it was struggling to source heavy equipment for the 14 new brigades it was forming
Counterattacking Ukrainian guardsmen discovered the bodies the next day
Shrugging off the loss of more than a thousand troops every day
the Russian military is taking advantage of the Ukrainian military’s manpower crisis and advancing along several axes in the east
It’s only helping the Russians on this front that Ukraine continues to direct its reserves to Kursk to sustain the Ukrainian invasion of the oblast
It’s a standard Russian tactic to partially encircle a fortified settlement in order to compel the defenders to withdraw
a former Ukrainian stronghold 33 miles south of Pokrovsk where a weary Ukrainian brigade had held out for two years before a bigger Russian force finally flanked it
That there are Russians on the outskirts of Vyshneve means the Ukrainians in Selydove
including the surviving Kara Dag Brigade guardsmen
Pokrovsk is still the objective for the Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army—and for a good reason
It’s the southern anchor of a so-called “fortress belt” of free cities stretching south from Slovyansk
But Pokrovsk is a much harder target than Selydove
The Center for Defense Strategies remained optimistic the city will endure through the coming winter
“The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation,” the group predicted
the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders
but also will be unable to seize the ‘fortress belt,’” the Center for Defense Strategies insisted
1. Ukraine Control Map
2. Deep State
by A view of the empty and damaged town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on Oct
29 that its forces had captured the town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast
which lies close to the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk
Observers and the Ukrainian military have warned of an increasingly difficult situation in the town as Russian forces have been pushing forward over the past few weeks
While Kyiv did not confirm whether Russia captured the town
an expert told the Kyiv Independent that Selydove is effectively "lost."
"There can be some Ukrainians in the western parts
but the city is basically lost," said Emil Kastehelmi
a military expert and open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group
"That's the biggest city to fall after Avdiivka in the winter
The Ukrainian military said on Oct
29 that it had repelled 11 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector
The town's fall would spell dire news for Pokrovsk
which lies only around 18 kilometers (11 miles) northwest
Russian forces have been inching toward Pokrovsk for the past couple of months
with their push in Donetsk Oblast recently gaining a long-unseen pace
Selydove was home to around 21,000 people before the full-scale invasion in 2022
accompanied by artillery barrages and heavy aerial bombardment
has driven thousands of civilians from their homes
by Aftermath of a Russian airstrike that wounded six civilians in Selydove
(Pablo Miranzo/Anadolu via Getty Images)Russian troops are approaching the town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast amid Russia's ongoing advance in the region
Ukrainian media outlet Hromadske reported on Aug
citing its correspondent Diana Butsko on the ground
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Selydove has been regularly attacked by Russia, often resulting in casualties. The front line has inched closer to the town since Russia took Avdiivka in February and continues its advance towards the nearby city of Pokrovsk
The Russian army is actively shelling Selydove
and many civilian infrastructure facilities have been destroyed
with a pre-war population of nearly 21,000 people
is located 18 kilometers south (11 miles) of Pokrovsk
which has been a focal point of Russia's offensive for recent months in the Donetsk sector of the frontline
President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier that Pokrovsk had become Russia's main target after its Kharkiv Oblast offensive failed
The military administration of Pokrovsk called on residents on Aug. 15 to evacuate immediately
as the Russian army was about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the town's outskirts
As of Aug. 28, 38,000 people and 1,900 children remain in Pokrovsk
Kateryna Hodunova is a News Editor at the Kyiv Independent
She previously worked as a sports journalist in several Ukrainian outlets and was the deputy chief editor at Suspilne Sport
Kateryna covered the 2022 Olympics in Beijing and was included in the Special Mentions list at the AIPS Sport Media Awards
She holds a bachelor's degree in political journalism from Taras Shevchenko University and a master's degree in political science from the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
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Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London
He also covers other areas of geopolitics including China
Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from the International Business Times and well as English
You can get in touch with Brendan by emailing b.cole@newsweek.com or follow on him on his X account @brendanmarkcole
John Feng is Newsweek's contributing editor for Asia based in Taichung
He has covered foreign policy and defense matters
especially in relation to U.S.-China ties and cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan
John joined Newsweek in 2020 after reporting in Central Europe and the United Kingdom
He is a graduate of National Chengchi University in Taipei and SOAS
You can get in touch with John by emailing j.feng@newsweek.com
either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter
or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources
Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content
Russian forces are making gains southeast of the logistics hub of Pokrovsk
and maps show the latest state of play on the Donetsk front
Geolocated footage showed that Russian troops had raised a Russian flag over a city municipal building in Selydove, which is around 11 miles from Pokrovsk where Moscow troops continue to make advances.
Pokrovsk has been a focus for the Kremlin's goals to totally capture the Donbas region which consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
There have been reports of steady Moscow gains in that part of the front
particularly since Ukraine's August incursion into Russia's Kursk region
Russian military bloggers said that Moscow's forces had seized and are clearing the entirety of Selydove, although Washington-based research group the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said it has not yet seen confirmation of Russian forces operating in the west of the town
"The cleansing of the city is nearing completion!" posted Telegram channel Voenkori as it said that Russian troops "stormed" the city and that Ukrainian troops "fled across the river and to Grigorovka."
you just need to share the joy of liberation with the guys who are working there," posted Paratrooper's Diary
The ISW's latest map on Sunday highlighted some of these reported Russian gains
These included in and around Selydove as well as Russian claims that Moscow had captured Oleksandropil and Hirnyk on Saturday
Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment
The Ukrainian General Staff said Russian forces attacked east and southeast of Pokrovsk over the weekend
although it insisted that Kyiv's troops "are holding down the pressure and have so far repelled ten attacks of the opponent."
Updated map showing Russian advances. Russia has captured most of Selydove and advanced west of the town, occupied Hirnyk, captured most of Bohoyavlivka, and occupied the area between Novoukrainka and Shakhtars'ke. Russian advances have accelerated over the past week on the… https://t.co/iDY41zB1rB pic.twitter.com/0wzq9qWoCm
"The situation on the front line remains tense," the Ukrainian military said on Facebook on Sunday
despite the significant losses inflicted to him by our defenders
continues to try to break through Ukrainian defenses."
the Ukrainian open-source intelligence X account DeepState posted a map which showed that Russia has captured most of Selydove and advanced west of the town
and occupied the area between Novoukrainka and Shakhtarsk
"Russian advances have accelerated over the past week on the Selydove, Kurakhivka, and Vuhledar fronts," wrote military analyst Rob Lee on X, formerly Twitter
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground
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Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by William Mallard
A Russian military headquarters in the Donetsk region was targeted by Ukrainian forces in a strike which killed a large number of commanders
Undated and unverified drone footage showed the purported strike on a building in the Russian-occupied city of Selydove which hosted the 35th separate guards motorized rifle brigade
from the 41st Combined Arms Army of Russia's Central Military District
Video and images were widely shared on social media of the strike
which was reportedly carried out with a guided aerial bomb
there are unconfirmed reports that a U.S.-supplied HIMARS was behind the strike
Russian forces have momentum in the Donetsk region as they push on with the aim of capturing the strategic hub of Pokrovsk
A strike destroying a military headquarters and killing high-ranking personnel would deliver a blow to Moscow's military effort
Ukrainian military correspondent Andriy Tsaplienko reported a successful strike by Ukraine's Armed Forces on targets in occupied Selydove next to a still image of the smoky aftermath of a blast in the middle of a residential buildings
The post also had a screen grab of a chat among pro-Moscow sources on Telegram about the elimination of all the command of the 35th separate motor rifle brigade
Video footage widely shared on social media purportedly shows the moments of the daytime strike which caused a crater
Footage of Ukrainian strike on Russian-occupied Ukrainian Selydove. A headquarters of the Russian 35 brigade was located there. Russian "Z-bloggers" complained of huge losses among officers. It is reported that the drone that captured the strike was launched by a lady, callsign… pic.twitter.com/012H905oc9
Former Ukrainian internal affairs advisor Anton Gerashchenko posted the footage and the complaints of Russian bloggers about "huge losses" among officers
He added the detail that the drone capturing the strike was launched by a female geography teacher with the call sign Ultra
posted the same video suggesting that it had been carried out with one HIMARS strike
The New Voice of Ukraine also reported that it was a HIMARS strike
Drone footage of the recent Ukrainian strike with guided aerial bomb targeting what were said to be the headquarters of the Russian 35th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (в/ч 41659) from the 41st Combined Arms Army (Central Military District) in the town of Selydove, Donetsk Oblast… pic.twitter.com/JKNq6b3oRH
Russia's Defense Ministry said in October 2024 that its forces had captured Selydove and Moscow's forces are continuing their offensive operations in the direction of Pokrovsk
the city 11 miles further north whose seizure would help Moscow control the whole Donetsk region
Former Ukrainian internal affairs advisor Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Footage of Ukrainian strike on Russian-occupied Ukrainian Selydove
A headquarters of the Russian 35 brigade was located there
Russian 'Z-bloggers' complained of huge losses among officers."
Russian military blogger's Telegram post: "Our brigade is in mourning
The entire headquarters," the text of the correspondence says
Pro-democracy outlet Charter 97: "The command of the 35th separate guards motorized rifle brigade has been eliminated."
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Friday that Russian operations have not advanced in the Pokrovsk direction although fighting remains intense but Moscow's attacks and casualty numbers in the fight were decreasing
It suggests that Ukraine will continue to fight hard to prevent Pokrovsk's capture
Newsweek is committed to journalism that is factual and fair
We value your input and encourage you to rate this article
Russian forces have captured and occupied three more settlements in the Donetsk region
which has been under intense Russian pressure over the last few weeks
Ukraine’s open-source intelligence interactive project DeepState reported
Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces said on Thursday that the Russians had attempted to break through defences on the Pokrovsk front
Selydove was an important staging area for Ukrainian troops due to its location south of the city of Pokrovsk
The question is whether the Ukrainian military managed to withdraw from Selydove on time to avoid being trapped and if this now opens the southern route towards Pokrovsk
The UK Defence Ministry said earlier that the pace of Russian forces’ advances towards Porkovsk had significantly slowed down since Moscow troops intensified their assault on Selydove at the beginning of October
the ministry said Moscow likely aims to use the E50 highway — which connects Selydove and Pokrovsk — as a secondary route of advance to Porkovsk
The US-based Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW) noted that Moscow’s focus on securing Selydove has come at the expense of Russia's ability to sustain a meaningful offensive drive on the city of Pokrovsk — the Kremlin's top priority in the area
The capture of this settlement is likely to have exhausted Russian forces and probably reduced their combat ability
Military observers note that Russian forces have significantly intensified their advances since September
pushing at their fastest rate in a long time
The Russian command has likely ordered Russian forces to significantly increase their tempo of mechanised attacks before the full onset of muddy ground conditions
Russian troops have made "significant" gains around Selydove in recent days, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) whose map shows the latest state of play in the frontline Donetsk region town
Geolocated footage from Tuesday and Wednesday showed Russian advances in the northeast of the town with elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade in the area
The ISW map showed some of these reported gains by Moscow in the area from both Ukrainian and Russian sources
including the capture this week of the towns of Izmailivka
The Russian military blogger Two Majors posted video on Telegram of troops the channel said were from the 433rd Red Banner Motorized Rifle Regiment on top of a building
our troops broke the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city center," adding
However, the ISW said that Moscow's focus on Selydove has come at the expense of their offensive drive towards Pokrovsk, the strategic hub whose capture is Russia's operational objective on this sector of the front
Russian advances into Selydove and to the south and north of the town may soon cause Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the area to avoid being trapped
the ISW said but even its capture in the coming days does not necessarily mean they will seize Pokrovsk
It added that the seizure of Selydove will have "exhausted" Russian forces
weakening them if they are ordered to pivot towards Pokrovsk
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets wrote on Telegram that while a large number of Russian troops are committed to the entire Pokrovsk front
these forces are bogged down in attacks on Selydove
A prominent Russian milblogger agreed with this analysis
adding that Moscow's push to seize Pokrovsk is "stalling."
the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Thursday that Kyiv's forces had repelled 38 Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk front and that 148 combat clashes had taken place over the past day
In a Facebook post
the Ukrainian military said that "the situation on the battlefield remains difficult
using their advantage in manpower and equipment
"Ukrainian defenders are steadfastly holding off the occupiers' pressure and inflicting significant losses on the enemy," added the post
Russian forces have seized control of another eastern Ukrainian settlement
in what would be the latest in a string of gains in the Donetsk region if confirmed
The Kremlin said on Sunday that its Center group of forces had captured the Donetsk village of Mykhailivka
Several settlements in Ukraine bear the same name
and Russia's Defense Ministry statement is likely referring to the village immediately east of Selydove
southeast of the strategic Ukrainian-held hub of Pokrovsk where Moscow has been concentrating its efforts
The Ukrainian military redirected Newsweek to its publicly-available official statements when approached for comment on Sunday
the Ukrainian General Staff did not mention Mykhailivka by name
but said Russian forces were "concentrating its main efforts near Selydove
where 12 battles have taken place so far."
showed the vast majority of Mykhailivka to be under Russian control as of Sunday
More than two and a half years into the full-scale war
Moscow has kept up the pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the east
Kyiv has consistently reported the heaviest fighting to be along the chunks of the front line running through Donetsk
makes up the industrial heartland referred to as the Donbas
But fighting has blazed on in the northeastern Kharkiv region of Ukraine since Moscow launched its cross-border offensive in May, and Russia has spent months attempting to fend off Kyiv's operations in its border Kursk region since its western neighbor launched a surprise incursion into the territory in early August
Ukraine's armed forces have also sounded the alarm over "new assault operations" in the southern Zaporizhzhia region
Russia has battled to move west of the decimated city of Bakhmut since capturing it in May 2023
and west of Avdiivka since the former Ukrainian stronghold fell in February this year
Since the late winter earlier this year, Moscow has claimed a string of settlements west of Avdiivka towards Pokrovsk. The latter has been referred to as a "fortress" settlement
key to Ukrainian defenses preventing Russia's advance west of the Donetsk region
Ukraine's military said early on Sunday that its forces had stopped 36 Russian attacks around Pokrovsk over the previous 24 hours
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances along the Pokrovsk part of the front line on Saturday
according to the latest analysis from the U.S.-based think tank
Separately on Sunday, Russian state news agency Tass reported that Ukrainian forces have started a "partial withdrawal" from the key city of Toretsk
east of Pokrovsk and to the southwest of Bakhmut
The Ukrainian military did not immediately respond to a request for comment
ET: This article has been updated with a response from the Ukrainian military
Russian forces are likely to try to "exploit the cracks" in Kyiv's operations in the Donetsk region as the war heads into a third winter
a military analyst whose map shows what might be in store on the front in the coming months told Newsweek
Days after Vladimir Putin's troops were pictured raising their flags over a municipal building in Selydove
the defense ministry in Moscow said Tuesday its troops had captured the important staging area for Ukraine's defenses
Selydove is the largest town seized by Russia since the fall of Avdiivka and it is around 11 miles southeast of the logistics hub of Pokrovsk—a focus for Russian forces to meet one of Moscow's war aims of controlling the whole of the Donetsk oblast and the wider Donbas region
an open-source intelligence expert with the Finland-based Black Bird Group
said that Russia is conducting an offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk on a 30-40 mile wide front—from Selydove to the villages east of Velyka Novosilka
and they have been able to rapidly advance in various villages and fields," Kastehelmi told Newsweek
"It's a concerning development for Ukraine
as such quick movements have usually not been observed."
"The current advances in Selydove can be seen as a preparation to create better positions for an assault towards Pokrovsk," he said
Russian forces are likely trying to force the Ukrainians to retreat from Kurakhivka
If Russian troops can reach the reservoir in the area it would provide them with good starting points for further operations
they're likely trying to push Ukraine out of southern Donetsk
there are likely ambitions to encircle Kurakhove
which is a heavily fortified city," he said
October has been a tough month for Ukraine
with Russian troops making gains south of Kupyansk
Russia advanced southeast of Kupyansk and west of Svatove
Russian forces have also crossed the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal
potentially ahead of an assault on the city
Moscow's troops have also breached Ukrainian defenses near Toretsk
Kastehelmi noted how Russian troops had advanced over six miles in a few days and now control at least most of Shakhtarske and Novoukrainka
and likely have complete control of Bohoyavlenka
This pace of advance and the aerial capabilities could have serious consequences for Ukraine
which will not be able to bring construction equipment very close to the front
He said the southern push would continue to make progress through the unfortified fields
forcing Ukrainian troops out of the heavily fortified Kurakhove area
Ukraine may be able to transfer reserves and grind down mechanized assaults
but it could lose Kurakhove before the end of the year
In its latest update, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Tuesday that Russian advances of around 14 square kilometers (5 square miles) per day remained slow and "consistent with positional warfare rather than with rapid mechanized maneuver."
think tank said while the capture of Vuhledar and the area around Selydove were "tactically significant," they do not signal an increase in the pace of Russian advances across the frontline
"much of which remains relatively stagnant."
The ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces are probably stepping up their mechanized attacks before muddy ground conditions in the fall months set in
"The fall of Selydove shows that the balance of power has shifted in favor of Russia," Vuk Vuksanovic
an associate at the London School of Economics' think tank LSE IDEAS
"The fact that Selydove has not been leveled like Bakhmut is both because Russians want to use this city for further operations and
that there were not enough Ukranian troops."
"The logical next target is the strategic city of Pokrovsk," he said
"The Russians have the intention of completing their control over the Donetsk region since the bulk of Moscow's recent territorial gains are in Donetsk."
However, these gains are coming at high price in personnel and equipment. Ukraine said on October 28 Russia had sustained more than 10,000 casualties in one week
Ukraine continues to push for permission to use Western-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, and Kyiv is also hoping that a change to the country's mobilization laws in April will help replenish troop numbers quickly
"Despite the help and the recent mobilization actions
Ukraine is still struggling to stabilize the front and build new capabilities," Kastehelmi said
"The Russians likely want to exploit the cracks in the Ukrainian lines
"We'll just have to wait and see how effectively Ukrainians are able to establish and hold the new defensive positions."
near Pokrovsk; spotlight on Moscow’s expanded use of torture since invasion
Ukraine will begin calling up another 160,000 people to serve in its military
the secretary of Ukraine’s national security council
A security source separately told Agence France-Presse the recruitment would take place over three months
several apartments set on fire and a kindergarten damaged as Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 62 drones over Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning
Air defence units destroyed 33 of them over Kyiv and other regions
Ukraine and Russia have discussed stopping strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, the Financial Times reported
Discussions were said to be in preliminary stages
Russian strikes have severely affected Ukraine’s electrical grid; Ukraine has done substantial damage to oil and fuel refineries and depots in Russia
Russia claimed on Tuesday to have taken full control of the mining hub of Selydove, about 18km (10 miles) south-east of Pokrovsk in the eastern Donetsk region. There was no confirmation from the Ukrainian side, but the Kyiv Independent cited analysts and experts in reporting that the capture of Selydove was “all but confirmed”
Russia also claimed to control the nearby villages of Bogoyavlenka
Joe Biden has said Ukraine should strike back if North Korean troops cross into Ukraine
“I am concerned about it,” said the US president when asked about the troops’ presence in Russia’s Kursk region
when asked if the Ukrainians should strike back
said a “small number” of North Koreans had been deployed in Kursk
with “a couple thousand more that are either almost there or due to arrive imminently”
on Tuesday about the troop deployment and they agreed on deeper cooperation
“The conclusion is clear: this war is becoming internationalised
extending beyond two countries,” Zelenskyy told the South Korean leader
Yoon said the involvement of North Korean troops in the Ukraine conflict was “unprecedented and dangerous” and warned about the potential transfer of military technology and combat experience from Moscow to Pyongyang
Ukraine will host a delegation from South Korea soon to discuss the escalation
South Korea is considering sending arms to Ukraine
met on Tuesday with Zelenskyy’s top adviser
Officials said Sullivan briefed Yermak on Joe Biden’s plans to send additional artillery systems
and other materiel including Patriot and Amraam missiles to Ukraine before Biden leaves office in January
that North Korea sending arms and personnel to Russia was an escalation and provocation in a message on behalf of Nato and the EU during talks in Beijing on Tuesday
“We had a good discussion about this,” Stubb told reporters
Vladimir Putin on Tuesday launched an exercise of Russia’s nuclear forces featuring missile launches in a simulation of a retaliatory strike. According to the defence ministry, the military test-fired a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, submarines test-fired ICBMs, and Tu-95 strategic bombers carried out practice launches of long-range cruise missiles.
The US aerospace company Aerojet Rocketdyne has doubled its monthly production of motors for GMLRS rockets that are heavily used in Ukraine, a company executive said on Tuesday, as demand surges to supply the Ukrainians, replenish US stockpiles and meet demand from other customers. Aerojet produces about half of all the rocket motors propelling US military missiles, rockets and other projectiles. The guided multiple launch rocket system, also known as GMLRS, can fire about 72km (45 miles).
Today’s Paper#masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }Russia-Ukraine War
By Josh Holder and Andrew E. Kramer
Russia is closing in on a key city in Ukraine’s East in one of the fastest advances for its military since the early days of the war
it would gain a big strategic advantage in seizing the rest of the Donbas region
Russian forces are closing in on a key rail and road hub
Russian advances are threatening to encircle Ukrainian troops here
Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Pokrovsk is at the center of many of the rail and road lines for the whole of the Donbas
A successful Russian assault would cut the main supply lines for troops in the remaining Ukrainian strongholds across the region
and would position Moscow’s forces to menace Ukrainian positions to the south of the city
its troops were falling back more than a mile a day
Two dense lines of Ukrainian fortifications remain between the frontline and the city
with anti-tank ditches to slow advancing Russian vehicles and dozens of circular trenches to protect infantry and mortar units
Sources: Satellite image from Planet Labs; territorial control from the Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Ukraine has sent extra troops to defend the lines around Pokrovsk
Russia has pivoted from a frontal attack toward the city to assaults to the south
to broaden the front and threaten an encirclement of Ukrainian troops between Pokrovsk and the town of Kurakhove
The semi-circle Russia has formed in the area is a tactic known as creating a “cauldron.”
The advance toward Pokrovsk was the most successful part of Russia’s offensive in the Donbas this summer
it attacked along most of the eastern frontline but after months of fierce fighting made only modest gains
A yearlong assault toward the hilltop town of Chasiv Yar
Ukraine’s incursion in Kursk has captured about 500 square miles of Russian land
Russia has advanced steadily forward across most of the eastern frontline since June 1
Source: The Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
While the frontline moved quickly over the summer around Pokrovsk
the overall Russian offensive in the Donbas has been costly and incremental
Ukraine launched its surprise invasion of the Kursk region in August
But its hold on its gains in Russia have yet to be tested in a serious counterattack
And its goal of forcing Moscow to divert troops from the Donbas to counter the Ukrainian advance in Russia has not materialized
Russian troops continue to push forward in the East
may wrap up with fall rains that limit movement on both sides as all but paved roads become muddy tracks all but impassable for heavy vehicles
the last storks of Donbas fly off to other horizons for the winter
glide over fields of dried sunflowers and disappear behind massive slag heaps that
a soldier of Ukraine’s 68th Jaeger Brigade
destroyed a few weeks earlier by Russian forces
This is where the fiercest fighting has taken place.
dozens of cars and trucks evacuate the last civilians from the city
Sitting next to Philippe in the front seat
"That’s Selydove!" he yells to be heard over the engine noise
A shell has just crashed into a field a few meters away
Philippe swiftly exits the driver's seat and switches on a small black box with antennas at the back of the car
have achieved their greatest advance since the start of the war in February 2022
pushing their troops to within a few kilometers of Pokrovsk
one of the Ukrainian army’s logistical hubs in the region
the men of the 68th Brigade were brought back a few weeks ago to stem the Russian advance
the Ukrainian forces seem to have stabilized the front
Around an old Soviet cannon seized from the Russians during the Kharkiv counteroffensive in 2022
"We mostly do counter-battery fire," he says
He says it’s difficult to predict how long the Ukrainian army will be able to halt the Russian advance.
"All I can tell you is that the situation has been stabilized for the past few weeks
and we still have a chance to save Pokrovsk," Taras says
The calm conversation is interrupted by a phone call
he briskly moves toward the artillery piece
"We hide from the Russian counter-battery fire," explains Oleksandr
If the Russians don’t respond within that time
"It takes 50 seconds for a shell fired from the Russian side to reach its target." In the second minute
"The Russians won’t respond this time," says Oleksandr with a wink
were also transferred a few weeks ago to block the Russian advance
he believes that Kyiv will be able to hold the front for a few more months
"I think we have a chance to hold out for some time," he explains
"It all depends on the Russian advance and our ability to stop them
If we hold Selydove until the rainy season
usually between mid-October and early November
making the movement of essential vehicles nearly impossible for ongoing operations
One must then wait for the cracked mud to freeze at the start of winter to launch new offensives
He explains that their units are better prepared for winter this year and have much more ammunition than they did a few months ago
After facing acute ammunition shortages for most of 2023
Ukrainian forces have in recent months secured enough supplies to defend themselves
This improvement is largely thanks to the initiative of Czech President Petr Pavel
who managed to mobilize nearly a million shells from allies worldwide
but [it’s] nothing like last year when we were in dire need."
If Russian forces have slowed their advance on Pokrovsk
Mikhaïl explains it’s mainly to level the front and expand their salient around the city
"They were too deep and were jeopardizing their supply line," he says
Oleksandr of the 68th Brigade is well aware
"Every village results in street fighting and significant losses for the Russians
It’s more effective for them that way," he says
Oleksandr wants to believe they can hold out
Despite the difficulties faced by the Ukrainian army
he thinks they will be able to keep Pokrovsk
the return journey betrays the Russian advance
Every five to 10 kilometers along the road from Pokrovsk to Kramatorsk
A Russian thermobaric munitions depot in Donetsk Oblast was destroyed in a Ukrainian overnight attack on February 28, resulting in an explosion, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
which has since been circulated on social media
Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for comment via email outside of business hours
On the night of February 28, Ukraine's Defense Forces destroyed a thermobaric munitions storage near Selydove, Donetsk region.Great job!📹: @GeneralStaffUA pic.twitter.com/5Ohhf0LMDY
Ukraine has frequently targeted weapons or munitions depots in an effort to cut off Russia's supply and hinder the country's ability to continue fighting in the war
As well as striking Russian munitions storage facilities, Ukraine has also attacked Moscow's oil depots and refineries on numerous occasions
targeting the energy sector to cut off Russia's ability to continue funding the war
Russia's stock of ammunition has recently decreased, and Moscow is facing a military equipment shortage
so Ukraine's most-recent strike could significantly damage their ability to continue fighting
The Ukrainian armed forces reported that they "destroyed a thermobaric ammunition storage facility of the Russian invaders in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region
in the Selidove district." They added that "three more important facilities of the Russian invaders were damaged
which is involved in supplying the Russian occupation army."
debris and munitions were reportedly scattered near the destroyed facility
according to the military news outlet Militarnyi
The Ukrainian forces reported that the results of the attack and the damage inflicted are still being determined
from the scale and power behind the explosion
the munitions depot likely housed thermobaric rockets for the TOS-1A Solntsepek heavy flamethrower systems
The TOS-1A Solntsepek is a thermobaric rocket launcher
an updated version of the original flamethrower system
It has been described as one of the most-dangerous weapons in existence
Thermobaric weapons
The Belarusian news outlet NEXTA Live also reported that the depot contained thermobaric shells
which are "munitions that disperse a fuel aerosol and detonate the resulting gas cloud
There are no international laws explicitly prohibiting their use
it may be condemned for war crimes under The Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1907."
The thermobaric munitions depot is located less than 10 kilometers [6.2 miles] from the front line
an English-language news website operated by contributors from Ukraine
The Ukrainian armed forces did not specify what weapons they used to strike it
Ukrainian troops struck the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai last week
wrote: "Russia celebrates something with a big fireworks display
the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed a thermobaric ammunition depot of the russian invaders in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region in the Selidove district.—General Staff In addition
three more important facilities of the russian occupiers were hit
which is involved in supplying the russian occupation army."
wrote on X: "Good news from occupied #Ukraine
#Ukraine hit a store of #Russia's thermobaric weapons near the #Donetsk village of #Selydove
It is unclear how Russia will revamp its stock of thermobaric weapons lost in the explosion to continue fighting in the escalating conflict with Ukraine
Newsweek is committed to journalism that's factual and fair
Hold us accountable and submit your rating of this article on the meter.
by Aftermath of a Russian attack on Selydove in Donetsk Oblast on Aug
(Vadym Filashkin / Telegram)A Russian glide bomb attack on the town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast killed two civilians and injured 11 others
The front line has inched closer to Selydove since Russia took Avdiivka in February and continues its advance towards the nearby city of Pokrovsk
Selydove is currently located less than 10 kilometers from the front line
Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office said that Russian troops used a FAB-500
an air-dropped bomb weighing 500 kilograms
The attack damaged 20 high-rise buildings, six administrative buildings, and three businesses. A child born in 2019 was among the wounded, Filashkin said
A pre-trial investigation has been opened into a violation of the laws and customs of war
An earlier guided aerial bomb attack on Selydove killed two people and injured three others on June 21. Heavy fighting continues in Donetsk Oblast as Russia seeks to occupy the entire region
Russia on Sunday said it has captured another east Ukrainian village as it closes on the important city of Pokrovsk
where its forces have been advancing for weeks
Russian troops have moved westwards in the Donetsk region for months
with Kyiv saying this weekend that the situation was "very difficult."
Moscow's Defense Ministry said its forces have now taken Mykhailivka
a village at the gates of the town of Selydove
Selydove has been badly damaged by months of shelling and seen most of its population flee
Russia has been trying to capture Pokrovsk
a mining town that was home to some 60,000 people before Moscow launched its offensive. It has been claiming east Ukrainian villages for months
Artillerymen of the 15th National Guard Brigade operate a Msta-B towed howitzer near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
by Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military
soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only
POKROVSK DISTRICT, Donetsk Oblast – Marked by wide plumes of gray smoke on the horizon, the open fields stretching out southeast of the city of Pokrovsk don’t resemble a front line that has stabilized
Following a dirt road between a treeline and a field of drying, unharvested sunflowers, the military car gains speed as it enters the range of enemy suicide drones
as the smoother ride causes less damage to the unit’s precious fleet of cars
In the absence of the small 3D-printed detectors that many soldiers carry
the artillerymen receive warnings of drones in the air on WhatsApp
but the longer one spends in the open and the closer one gets to the zero line
the risk from all kinds of threats from the sky — as does the volume of the battles nearby — only increases
Smoke rises over a field near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)Throughout this third summer of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine
this area has consistently been where fighting is at its most intense
Struggling to consolidate resistance along unified lines of defense in the face of waves of infantry assaults covered by dense use of Russian artillery, glide bombs
Ukrainian forces have been losing territory at a rate not seen since 2022
Since the first break through of Ukrainian defense lines in April near the village of Ocheretyne, Russian forces have advanced over 20 kilometers towards Pokrovsk
with the key logistics hub once considered to be deep in the rear
now gradually coming in range of Russian artillery and suicide drones
A map of the Russian offensive on the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast as of Sept
(Nizar al-Rifai/The Kyiv Independent)Kyiv needed to act quickly and did
transferring brigades both from strategic reserves and less-active sectors into the fight
Deployed to Zaporizhzhia Oblast since its formation in early 2023
the brigade was rushed here at the beginning of September to stem the tide of the Russian offensive
At first, the deployment of fresh forces seemed to have a near-immediate effect: On Sept. 5, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed that the Russian offensive had been halted
Russian forces have resumed their advances towards Pokrovsk
while also threatening to encircle a large grouping of Ukrainian forces south of the main salient
Speaking to the Kyiv Independent over a week spent in the area
soldiers testified that the offensive on Pokrovsk had indeed slowed somewhat
giving defending forces priceless breathing room to improve positions and better organize their work
with systemic issues in the Ukrainian defense not going anywhere
and an overall manpower shortage that has only gotten more acute
the threat of a renewed Russian push to reach the outskirts of the city remains high
The howitzer is hidden away carefully from prying eyes in the sky by two layers of concealment: an array of camouflage netting as well as the slowly browning early autumn foliage
This artillery piece, a Msta-B 152mm towed howitzer that was captured from Russian forces during the Kharkiv counteroffensive in September 2022
is now playing a vital role in stopping its original owners
The name “Violetta,” scrawled in marker on the breech by Russian soldiers, is a stark contrast to the deadly power of the weapon: the 152mm shell was the munition of choice for heavy artillery bombardments on both sides until Ukraine began to transition to mostly NATO-standard ammunition
The availability of shells for guns like these is a problem that has plagued Ukraine’s artillery for the better part of the war
as old stocks of Soviet-era munitions run dry around the world
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)Artillerymen of the 15th National Guard Brigade at positions near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)But here
in a testament to how important holding Pokrovsk is for Kyiv
the crew from Kara-Dag is supplied with a constant flow of shells
sourced from a number of different countries
including Ukraine’s fledgling homegrown production facilities
Since their deployment to Selydove a week earlier
rarely does much time go by without a fire mission
a city with a pre-war population of about 21,000
forms a formidable physical roadblock to the attacking force
Russian forces continue to attempt assaults on the city
gathering in the neighboring village of Mykhailivka but have not found success recently
“Our work is to rain fire on enemy groupings before they get moving,” he said
the enemy hasn't moved forward here for two weeks
Artillerymen of the 15th National Guard Brigade at positions near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)Andrii
an artillery commander in the 15th National Guard Brigade at positions near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)At the moment
this crew has been assigned to provide counterbattery fire
targeting the very enemy artillery pieces and drone positions that make life for the Ukrainian infantry around Pokrovsk so perilous
Such an assignment exponentially increases the danger the team is under
as they themselves must push a lot further forward towards the line of contact to bring their targets in range
“When the enemy took Memryk (a village just east of Selydove)
our guys were working from only two kilometers away from them,” said Andrii
the crew had already damaged or destroyed two Russian howitzers that morning
a feat confirmed from the air by Ukrainian reconnaissance drones
At a moonlit firing range in an old quarry further in the rear
the silence is broken by the fearsome bursts of large-caliber automatic fire
Here, infantrymen from a fire support company of Ukraine’s 68th Jaeger Brigade are testing a new flash suppressor for their U.S.-made M2 Browning heavy machine gun
Operating heavy machine guns like the Browning from a kilometer or two behind the zero line
be in less danger than those who they are covering
Russian forces have advanced so quickly that they often found themselves under direct assault
a 32-year-old machine gunner who declined to give his callsign; “very often
you simply have a situation where the front line is moving very quickly
“It does seem like things have died down a little over the last two weeks,” he added
it felt like basically every mission ended up with us having to change positions
we came into direct contact with the enemy
even though we should be working from further back.”
An infantryman of the 68th Jaeger Brigade fires a heavy machine gun at a training range in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)Deployed to the Pokrovsk sector around the time the Russian offensive accelerated in late spring
the brigade has borne the heavy burden of being at the tip of Moscow’s attacking spear
“Their tactics never change: they attack with quantity
and we fight them off with quality,” said Dmytro “Volynets,” another machine gunner in the company
we would have fought all of them off a long time ago
The infantrymen’s stories testify to the starkly attritional nature of the fight: although Russia’s relentless infantry assaults come at a high cost
with enough time and enough fire covering the defending positions
but eventually our ammunition runs out,” said Dmytro
“And while they are getting resupplied constantly
An infantryman of the 68th Jaeger Brigade poses for a portrait in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)Often
as one incident recalled by Oleksandr demonstrated
localized withdrawals of the infantry in front of them
are not reported to them before it is too late
but when our dugout started burning we had to move and dig in somewhere else,” he said
we were joined by two wounded guys from our unit
We prepared and soon we were in a close firefight; they came up to about 10 meters from us.”
Oleksandr’s squad was able to escape by laying down suppressive fire and withdrawing under the cover of darkness
With many different units — all in various states of combat effectiveness — deployed to the Pokrovsk front
effective communication between brigades is a crucial factor that is often lacking
soldiers from both brigades told the Kyiv Independent
who asked not to be identified because of the nature of his comments
one of the neighboring brigades would consistently fail to report lost positions
leaving his own units vulnerable from the flank without knowing about it
and communication between them becomes a big problem,” said Oleksandr
“You could have 3-4 units fighting in the same sector
but don't have proper communications between them; they have their radio stations encrypted for their own people
and we always look to find out who it is that is posted next to us.”
Infantrymen of the 68th Jaeger Brigade load a heavy machine gun at a training range in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)With time
fighting in a defensive operation that has been far from under control comes at a heavy cost
Asked about the manpower situation in their infantry battalions
officers from both brigades described it as critical
and taken prisoner,” said Olena Tarishchuk
a 39-year-old lieutenant responsible for monitoring the morale and mental state of the fire support company’s personnel
We don't have enough manpower to carry out our orders.”
on top of the reluctance of Ukraine’s higher command to rotate exhausted units off the front line
An infantryman of the 68th Jaeger Brigade in Donetsk Oblast on Sept
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)“In recent times
according to all our consultations and surveys
morale levels are in the worst category at the moment,” said Tarishchuk
“The guys are simply holding on with their last strength
nobody refuses to go or tries to sit out missions.”
Though the incursion into Kursk Oblast was praised for giving a sharp boost to morale among both soldiers and civilians across Ukraine
the feeling near Pokrovsk was bittersweet at best
“There was no euphoria among us,” she said
some of our guys were saying they really wanted to go and fight there (in Kursk Oblast)
but most of them were saying 'Why didn't they send those reserves here
those same brigades; we could save the situation here quickly."
Back at the artillery positions of the Kara-Dag Brigade
Andrii’s howitzer crew receives a fire mission
the men spring into action in a split second
all with a clear vision of their role in the team
another the charge; two men remove the camouflage netting from the Msta-B’s huge barrel
they don’t know yet what the target is: all they have are coordinates
which are quickly converted by the commander into settings for the gun
each shot briefly igniting the sky in yellow and sending a wave of dirt in all directions
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)As soon as the order to mask up is given
the team finishes their work as quickly as they started it: down goes the barrel
as everyone shuffles into the trench in expectation of return fire
It’s not long before the commander comes with good news: the five shells were enough
to knock out yet another Russian D-30 howitzer working out of a nearby village
(Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)According to Andrii
Kara-Dag’s defense of Selydove is firmly under control
in a story that seems to just keep on repeating itself over this summer
Andrii is concerned about the threats from the flanks
the commander told the Kyiv Independent that Russian forces had begun making new gains south of Selydove
the changes in the line appeared on open-source mapping projects
part of an overall resumption in the Russian moves on Pokrovsk
and we can hold the line with no problem,” said Andrii
Ukrainian forces have recaptured positions previously seized by Russia near Pokrovsk, as Moscow continues its push to capture the city in the Donetsk oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said
Russia has been pushing an offensive towards the city
which is a critical road and rail hub used to supply Kyiv-held outposts in the region in the east of Ukraine
The Russian defense ministry and pro-Moscow military bloggers have claimed Moscow's forces made gains near the city
such as the capture of Mykhailivka and Tsukuryne
which are villages located to the southeast
Moscow has also continued its offensive east of Pokrovsk with one source reporting on Sunday that Russian forces are starting to use armored vehicles in assaults and had struck the Korotchenka Mine on the eastern outskirts of Selydove with a Kh-38ML air-to-surface missile
Some of Moscow's maneuvers were outlined in the latest map of the area by the ISW
which illustrated Russian advances east of Selydove and the capture of Zhelanne Pershe and Ostrivske
The Washington-based think tank also said that geolocated footage showed Ukrainian gains southeast of Pokrovsk
Kyiv "regained lost positions near Selydove
and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk
Donetsk City and Velyka Novosilka," Sunday's update said
The ISW described how Russian forces had resumed attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area where they have made gains
although this doesn't seem to be part of a larger offensive to support the wider Russian operation
Russian and Ukrainian sources said that over the weekend elements of Russia's 336th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment had launched assaults near Levadne that broke through Ukrainian defenses
Russian milbloggers have said Moscow seized Levadne and advanced up to the southern outskirts of Novodarivka
although the ISW said there is no visual evidence of these claims
Newsweek contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment
Ukraine's military intelligence directorate (GUR) reported that overnight on Sunday a Russian Tu-134 military transport aircraft that was used to transport Moscow's defense ministry officials was set on fire at a military airfield in Orenburg Oblast around 780 miles from the front line in Ukraine
The GUR shared footage of the fire without claiming responsibility or offering details about how the fire started
although it added that "every crime against the Ukrainian people will be duly punished."
Ukraine has carried out a number of strikes against airbases in Russia. Last week, the Khanskaya military airfield, which hosted dozens of warplanes and helicopters in the Adygea Republic in the North Caucasus was targeted by Kyiv
a Ukrainian military source told the Kyiv Independent
ET: This article was updated with additional information
Russia has advanced toward one of its key targets in eastern Ukraine in recent days
as Moscow says its troops have captured another village in the embattled Donetsk region
The U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
which tracks daily changes to the front line
said on Saturday that Russian forces had advanced to the east and southeast of Pokrovsk
a city in the west of Ukraine's embattled Donetsk region
The Ukrainian-held Donetsk logistics hub of Pokrovsk has been referred to as a "fortress" settlement
key to Ukrainian defenses in the east and connected to other critical defensive cities
Russia has been slowly but surely heading for the settlement since the former Ukrainian stronghold, Avdiivka, fell to Moscow in February. The ISW previously told Newsweek that Russia had advanced roughly two square kilometers (0.7 square miles) each day to the west of the Avdiivka toward Pokrovsk between February and the start of August
This pace would likely slow down as Moscow's troops head further toward Pokrovsk
coming up once again against more residential and built-up areas
Popular Ukrainian war-tracking blog DeepState said late on Friday that Russia had advanced in Selydove
a town southeast of Pokrovsk where heavy fighting has been reported
Ukraine's military said in a statement at 4 p.m
ET) on Sunday that Russia had "already made 15 attempts" to dislodge Ukrainian troops from positions around Selydove
and other settlements along the front line
The pro-Kremlin Shot Telegram channel said on Saturday that Russia had made an "epic breakthrough" into Selydove
claiming that Moscow's forces now control 80 percent of the settlement
"The main battles are for the city center," the channel wrote
claiming that Ukrainian forces had pulled back to the northwest of Selydove
The Two Majors Telegram channel said on Sunday that a Russian push "led to the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense" in Selydove
the village of Hirnyk—southeast of the former—and another settlement to the southwest
Russian state news agency Tass reported on Sunday that Kyiv had pulled back from many positions in Hirnyk
Selydove "has been taken," the account claimed
Newsweek could not independently verify battlefield reports
and has reached out to the Ukrainian military and Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email
Russia's Defense Ministry said on Sunday that its troops had captured Izmailivka
a village southeast of Pokrovsk and immediately west of Hirnyk
Moscow said its forces had seized Oleksandropil
a village northeast of Pokrovsk and west of ongoing fighting for the Donetsk city of Toretsk
a village in Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region that Kyiv had retaken during its 2023 counteroffensive
It sits just across the southern Donetsk border
a spokesperson for Ukrainian forces in the south
said on Sunday that Ukraine was still in control of high ground near Levadne and were trying to recover their positions
by Ukrainian soldiers evacuating a civilian likely injured by Russian soldiers on Oct
(Prosecutor General's Office/Facebook)Russian soldiers in the Donetsk Oblast town of Selydove have likely opened fire against civilians on separate occasions
killing at least two women and injuring one person
the regional prosecutor's office said on Oct
Selydove is the site of heavy battles as Russian forces are pushing deeper into the settlement, which lies 18 kilometers (11 miles) southeast of Ukraine's key logistics hub of Pokrovsk
Ukrainian prosecutors have launched a war crime investigation into footage and reports shared on social media that accuse Russian soldiers of shooting at and murdering the town's residents
One video purports to show Russian soldiers opening fire against a civilian car in a populated area on Oct
One resident was injured and was provided assistance by Ukrainian soldiers who arrived at the scene afterward
Ukrainian soldiers evacuating a civilian likely injured by Russian soldiers on Oct
(Prosecutor General's Office/Facebook)In a separate incident
two women have been reportedly murdered by Russian troops
The bodies have been found in a residential sector that was not heavily affected by hostilities and likely already under Russian control
An investigation to establish circumstances and perpetrators is underway
Kyiv has accused Russia of committing over 137,000 war crimes in Ukraine as part of its aggression
There have been numerous reports of murder and torture of civilians and Ukrainian prisoners of war as Moscow continues its all-out war and holds roughly one-fifth of Ukraine's territory
Earlier this week, the Prosecutor General's Office said that Russian soldiers killed four captured Ukrainian servicemen near Selydove
Martin Fornusek is a news editor at the Kyiv Independent
He has previously worked as a news content editor at the media company Newsmatics and is a contributor to Euromaidan Press
He was also volunteering as an editor and translator at the Czech-language version of Ukraïner
Martin studied at Masaryk University in Brno
holding a bachelor's degree in security studies and history and a master's degree in conflict and democracy studies
by A destroyed vehicle in Tsukuryne near the town of Selydove
2024 (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)Russian soldiers killed four captured Ukrainian servicemen near the town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast
the Prosecutor General's Office reported on Oct
In a post on Telegram
it said the four members of Ukraine's National Guard were fighting near the town when they were taken prisoner during a Russian attack on Oct
Russian soldiers filmed their interrogations
but when the positions were recaptured by Ukrainian forces on Oct
The Prosecutor General's Office has opened a pre-trial investigation into the incident
There have been multiple reports of the executions of Ukrainian POWs by Russian soldiers during the full-scale invasion, but they have increased dramatically over the last year.
Videos and photos have documented potential war crimes, including drone footage showing the shooting of the POWs as they surrendered to Russian troops
Other videos and photos point to torture and violent death in Russian captivity
As of Oct. 18, Russian forces have executed at least 102 Ukrainian prisoners of war since 2022
Andrii Kostin, the former Prosecutor General, said that the executions of Ukrainian POWs were not isolated incidents, but a purposeful policy" of Russia, citing the audio recordings obtained by Kyiv.Selydove, a town located 18 kilometers (11 miles) south of Pokrovsk
has become a focal point of Russia's offensive in recent weeks
Kateryna Denisova works as a News Editor at the Kyiv Independent
She previously worked as a news editor at the NV media outlet for four years
covering mainly Ukrainian and international politics
Kateryna holds a bachelor’s degree in journalism from Taras Shevchenko University of Kyiv
She also was a fellow at journalism schools in the Czech Republic and Germany
Residential buildings and service stations were among targets
say local officials; Russian grip tightens around Pokrovsk with battles in nearby Selydove
Russian strikes on Kharkiv wounded nine people and cut power to part of the city
local officials and police said late on Sunday
Among the targets were residential buildings
the main city of the north-east Ukrainian region of the same name
It lies less than 30km (19 miles) from the Russian border
Ukraine’s air defence units were engaged soon after midnight on Monday in repelling a Russian air attack targeting Kyiv
Ukraine struck a manufacturer of military explosives deep inside Russian territory as well as storage infrastructure at the Lipetsk-2 military airfield in the region of the same name
The Ukrainian armed forces said there were explosions after a strike on the Sverdlov plant in the city of Dzerzhinsk
where chemicals for artillery ammunition and bombs are produced and bombs stored
The plan is about 400km (250 miles) east of Moscow
Russian war bloggers also reported the attacks
Russia said its air defence units downed 110 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory
said debris fell in the Ramensky district of Moscow region without damage or casualties – though Russian officials often do not disclose the full extent of damage
Russian forces have fought street-to-street battles with Ukrainian troops in the outskirts of the eastern Ukrainian town of Selydove
Selydove is south-east of the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk
which Russian forces are pushing hard to capture
said Ukrainian forces had repelled 41 Russian attacks around several towns and villages
said Russia had launched about 800 guided aerial bombs and more than 500 attack drones over Ukraine in the past week alone
It is deliberate terror from the enemy against our people,” he said
renewing calls for continued air support from the country’s allies
the world can stand against this targeted terror.”
Zelenskyy said on Sunday he was seeking a strong reaction from countries that have acknowledged North Korea is becoming more involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine
Zelenskyy said there was ample satellite and video evidence that North Korea was sending not only equipment to Russia
but also soldiers to be prepared for deployment
strong reaction from our partners on this.”
Zelenskiy last week accused North Korea of deploying officers to Russia and preparing to send thousands of troops into the war. Involvement of North Korean regular troops would be a serious escalation of the war, France and Ukraine’s foreign ministers said at a joint press conference in Kyiv on Saturday
South Korea’s spy agency said on Friday that North Korea had sent 1,500 special forces troops to Russia’s far east for training
said on Saturday that he could not confirm reports North Korea had sent troops to Russia ahead of a possible deployment
but said such a move would be concerning if true
said on Thursday there was no evidence yet of Pyongyang’s presence.