Nigel Farage has declared a "big moment" in British politics as Reform makes gains from Labour and the Tories in local elections across the country
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Nigel Farage has declared two-party politics "is finished" after Reform UK gained a new MP and took control of councils across the country
The Reform leader addressed supporters in Durham following a day of successive victories in the local elections
which he said showed his party was now "the main opposition" to the government
Politics Live: Could Reform finally get a toehold of power?
The day began with Reform narrowly winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes
overturning the 14,700 majority secured by Labour at the general election less than 12 months ago
The insurgent party has also taken Lincolnshire
Staffordshire and Lancashire councils from the Tories and gained control of Durham
where Labour was previously the biggest party
Mr Farage mocked Sir Keir Starmer for declaring at Prime Minister's Questions recently that Reform "will have the Conservative Party for breakfast"
which was: we were going to have the Labour Party for lunch and we've done that today," the Clacton MP said
claiming to have "wiped them out" and that they no longer have any relevance
"Today marks the end of two-party politics - it is finished"
The by-election in Runcorn was called after the previous MP, Mike Amesbury, resigned following his conviction for punching a constituent.
Reform candidate Sarah Pochin won with 12,645 votes
compared to the 12,639 secured by Labour's Karen Shore
making it the closest by-election result since records began in 1945
It comes as a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer
who is facing calls from his own MPs to change course and reverse some of the recent spending cuts he has introduced
Speaking to reporters on Friday morning, the prime minister told Sky News he "gets it" and would "reflect" on the result
"We've got to deliver that change more quickly and go further than we've gone so far"
he defended taking "tough but right decisions" in his first 10 months
saying Labour "inherited a broken economy" from the Tories
"Maybe other prime ministers would have walked past that
pretended it wasn't there (...) I took the choice to make sure our economy was stable," Sir Keir said
voters on Thursday took part in contests to elect more than 1,600 councillors across 23 local authorities
along with four regional mayors and two local mayors
Mr Farage's party was storming ahead by early Friday afternoon
gaining Durham County Council from No Overall Control (NOC) while wiping out the Tories' majority to take control of Staffordshire County Council
Lincolnshire County Council and Lancashire
former Conservative minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected as the first mayor in Greater Lincolnshire
winning a majority of almost 40,000 over her ex-party
Analysis: Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice
losing their majority in places including Northumberland
there was one success story as they gained the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty from Labour
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch was defiant in a post on X
saying the renewal of her party has "only just begun" and she would "win back the trust of the public and the seats we've lost in the years to come"
Tory co-chairman Nigel Huddleston dismissed Reform's success
telling Sky News: "They are emerging into a populist popular party
but trying to transcend and promise everything to everybody
That is not a long-term sustainable position."
in a fluent victory speech that suggested she’ll be a competent House of Commons performer
declared that the voters of the Runcorn and Helsby constituency had had enough of Tory failures and Labour lies
in a typically ebullient Sky News interview
Mr Farage said: “Britain is broken.” He also predicted more wins for his party in local government elections later on Friday
there will be a huge inquest into how they came so close to holding the seat and lost by just six votes
Many Labour MPs and party members will condemn Sir Keir Starmer for not bothering to visit the constituency to campaign for their candidate Karen Shore
he’s a tireless campaigner with a stamina that astounds even members of his inner circle
His relentless tenacity has paid off handsomely
Other party leaders – with the notable exception of Sir Ed Davey – take note
Sir Keir sat on his hands and Kemi Badenoch was invisible too
And they’ve both paid the price: humiliation
Mr Farage announced he was heading off for a bacon sandwich
Sir Keir said Mr Farage would “eat the Tory party for breakfast”
But in Runcorn and Helsby - and many other parts of the UK - he’s just eaten Labour for breakfast as well
There was also some good news for Labour on Friday
as it held on to the North Tyneside mayoralty in the first vote of the night - albeit by just 444 votes
Labour also saw off Reform in the West of England and Doncaster to retain both mayoralties
with Labour's Ros Jones clinging on by 698 votes
Ms Jones criticised decisions to means-test the winter fuel allowance
hike employers' national insurance contributions and squeeze welfare
She told the BBC: "I think the results here tonight will demonstrate that they need to be listening to the man
Her comments have been echoed by several Labour MPs
with Brian Leishman saying that people voted for an end to austerity in the general election and Sir Keir's first 10 months in office "haven't been good enough or what the people want"
"If we don't improve people's living standards then the next government will be an extreme right-wing one," the Scottish MP warned on X
People voted for real change last July & an end to austerity
The first 10 months haven’t been good enough or what the people want & if we don’t improve people’s living standards then the next government will be an extreme right wing one
A tone deaf response from Labour spokespeople
We must listen to and heed the message voters have delivered and we must respond to it by changing the lives of working class people for the better with polices that transform the economic situation.If we do not improve the…
in the nearby Liverpool constituency of Riverside
also said Runcorn "is a warning we can't ignore" adding: "Voters want change - and if we don't offer it with bold
urged the party leadership to "truly reflect and change course"
saying the response of spokespeople to the results on Friday has been "tone deaf"
Labour chairwoman Ellie Reeves had said incumbent governments "never tend to do very well in parliamentary by-elections" and Runcorn was held in "very difficult circumstances"
She also said that people were "impatient for change" but change "doesn't happen overnight"
and data and economics editor Ed Conway will be live on Friday morning to report and explain the results
Result will heighten government’s fears it could lose scores of MPs to Nigel Farage’s party at next general election
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has dramatically won the Runcorn and Helsby byelection by just six votes in a blow to Keir Starmer’s premiership
The hard-right party narrowly overturned Labour’s 14,700-vote majority in the first full-scale electoral test of Starmer’s government and set a new record for the smallest majority at a parliamentary by-election since the end of the second world war
The result, which came on a night when Reform UK was expected to gain hundreds of council seats across England
followed a 17% swing from Labour to Farage’s party
After a recount that delayed the declaration by three hours
Reform’s Sarah Pochin won 38.6% of the vote – amounting to 12,645 votes
making it one of the smallest margins of victory in recent UK political history
The Conservatives slumped from 16% of the vote at last year’s general election to 7% in this contest
narrowly finishing ahead of the Green party in third place
The closely watched contest had been billed as the first real test of Farage’s ability to turn his party’s rising popularity into seats in parliament
a former Tory councillor and local magistrate
becomes the first non-Labour MP to represent the Cheshire town of Runcorn in 52 years
Arriving at the count centre to declare victory at 6am on Friday
Farage said: “Here and across the country you’re seeing big swings to us
from Labour in the north and Conservatives in the Midlands and the south
absolutely no question and it’s happening right across everywhere.”
Farage said the result sent a clear message that “we are now the opposition” and that if voters backed the Conservatives then they would “just get a Labour government”
0:40Nigel Farage says Reform is now main opposition party after local election gains – videoDespite the tiny margin of victory the result will heighten fears among Labour MPs that they could lose scores of seats to the hard-right populist party at the next general election
refused to speak to the media as she was ushered out of the count centre at the DCBL Stadium in Widnes
The Cheshire byelection was triggered by the resignation of Labour’s Mike Amesbury
the former MP who was convicted earlier this year of punching a constituent
Farage’s party sought to make immigration the key issue in this overwhelmingly white British corner of north-west England
houses of multiple occupancy and even Turkish barbers
Reform UK also attacked Labour’s cutting of the winter fuel payment – an issue repeatedly raised by voters – as well as its early release of prisoners and the rising cost of energy bills
delivering Reform UK its fifth MP and establishing the fledgling party has a serious challenger to Britain’s two main parties
In her victory speech Pochin said: “Enough is enough
I want to thank every one of you who were brave enough to put a cross against my name on the ballot paper.”
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She said the result would “inspire the rest of the country to believe that they too can stand up for what is right and stand up for our British values”
The result appears to back up recent opinion polls that suggested the anti-European Union populists were on course to topple Britain’s historic two-party system at the next general election
Despite Runcorn and Helsby being one of Labour’s safest seats, the party faced a challenge to win over voters from the beginning given it was sparked by Amesbury violently assaulting a constituent in a drunken late-night row.
In the first weeks of the campaign, Shore was criticised for launching a Facebook petition to close a hotel housing asylum seekers, in what some saw as a cynical attempt to stem the flow of votes to Reform UK.
Shore, a former deputy council leader, denied her campaign was “prejudiced” but admitted “that the tone of it could’ve been slightly different – and the fact it was exploited by the populists”.
Campaigners from both parties repeatedly said the result was “too close to call”, downplaying talk of a decisive victory for either side.
Turnout in the contest was a higher-than-expected 46.33%, which some on the count floor attributed to the “Farage factor” – a reference to the Reform UK leader’s ability to provoke strong opinion on either side.
There were bizarre scenes at the count centre when Reform UK officials announced that Farage was expected to arrive imminently about 30 minutes before the result was expected – a sign they were confident of victory.
But as camera crews and officials gathered, some holding the door open for their soon-to-arrive leader, there was no sign of him. Journalists were then told he was instead waiting in a car near the venue, perhaps as word reached him that it was too soon to declare a win.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey says they are now "the party of middle England" as the party secures control of three councils
Keir Starmer says Labour's by-election loss is "disappointing"
while Nigel Farage says today "marks the end of two-party politics"
Labour narrowly holds three mayoral races in North Tyneside, the West of England, and Doncaster - but loses control of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty to the Conservatives
These are really bad results for the Labour party, writes the BBC's chief political correspondent in seven key takeaways
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she's "determined to win back" trust
as her party loses more than 600 councillors
Watch: BBC's Henry Zeffman on what comes after Reform's by-election win
Nigel Farage celebrating with Reform UK activists in Stafford earlier today
It's been a dizzying day of electoral coverage as results poured in from 23 councils
six mayoral contests and one by-election across England
The elections marked a big test for the Labour government as the first vote to take place since the general election in July 2024
it was difficult night for both Labour and the Conservatives as Reform made sweeping wins
Reform leader Nigel Farage said his party had replaced the Tories as "the main opposition party in government" after Reform gained control of 10 councils, won two mayoral contest and gained their fifth MP in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by the narrowest of margins
It was also a difficult day for the Conservatives
who lost more than 670 councillors and won just one mayoral election in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough as Tory leader Kemi Badenoch pledged to "win back" the public's trust
the Liberal Democrats were left in a celebratory mood - with leader Ed Davey declaring the Lib Dems as "the new party of Middle England" - after taking control of three councils and dozens of seats
We'll be closing our live coverage now, but you can read our write up of the day's events here - or get the full election results on our dedicated page
There's also a selection of news and analysis below:
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform take control of West Northamptonshire from Conservativespublished at 21:26 British Summer Time 2 May21:26 BST 2 MayBreakingAnd we've now got the final results for this election
This takes the total number of councils they have control over to ten
The party has a total of 39 seats on the council
while the Conservatives have dropped by 31 seats to just 16
Labour has lost nine councillors with just nine seats
while the Liberal Democrats have increased their number of seats to four
The council has so far declared 70 of 76 seats
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingOne more election result to go...published at 21:04 British Summer Time 2 May21:04 BST 2 MayWe're still waiting for the results in West Northamptonshire to come through
the final one to declare of today's 23 local council election results
Reform UK took control in North Northamptonshire a short while ago
We'll bring you the results as soon as we get them
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform gains two mayors while Labour clings on to three - a recappublished at 20:24 British Summer Time 2 May20:24 BST 2 MayImage source
said her election marked a "new dawn in British politics"
While we wait for the result from the last council to declare - West Northamptonshire - here's a recap of the six mayoral contests:
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform take North Norhamptonshire from Conservativespublished at 20:20 British Summer Time 2 May20:20 BST 2 MayBreakingWe've just got the results for North Northamptonshire Council
This takes the total number of councils they have control over to nine
while the Tories have dropped by 29 seats and have 10 so far
Labour has lost 10 councillors and have just two seats
while the Greens are up by four to have five seats
The council has not yet finished reporting with 53 out of 66 seats declared so far
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingNo overall majority in Buckinghamshirepublished at 20:17 British Summer Time 2 May20:17 BST 2 MayBreakingNearly all of the 92 seats in Buckinghamshire Council have been declared and no party has secured an overall majority
have 42 councillors so far - a loss of 30 seats
The Liberal Democrats have gained 18 - with a total of 26 councillors so far
while Labour has a total of five councillors
Greens have also gained two councillors in the area
Reform has gained 3 new councillors in the area
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingSeven things we have learnt from this electionpublished at 20:04 British Summer Time 2 May20:04 BST 2 MayHenry ZeffmanChief political correspondent
The election results are still being counted
but this patchwork of different contests across England has been truly fascinating
throwing up all sorts of lessons - here are seven things we have learnt so far:
Want to know more? Read Henry's full analysis of the election so far
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingResult expected for Buckinghamshire Councilpublished at 19:55 British Summer Time 2 May19:55 BST 2 MayA result for the election at Buckinghamshire Council is imminent
We'll update you as soon as we have the result
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLatest results as Liberal Democrats take control of three councilspublished at 19:39 British Summer Time 2 May19:39 BST 2 MayLiberal Democrats win control of three councils
taking dozens of seats from Conservatives:
Reform UK beat Conservatives and Labour in several areas
many councils have no party in overall control:
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform UK gain Doncaster from Labourpublished at 19:02 British Summer Time 2 May19:02 BST 2 MayBreakingReform gains Doncaster Council from Labour
with 37 of the council's 55 seats declared
while Labour loses 21 seats and has five councillors so far
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingNo overall control in Cornwallpublished at 18:52 British Summer Time 2 May18:52 BST 2 MayBreakingAll results have now been declared in Cornwall Council and no party has a majority - this is the same as the previous election
Reform have gained 28 new seats in the area
with the Liberal Democrats following closely behind with 13 new seats and a total of 26 councillors
The Green Party has also gained two seats in the area
while Labour lost one to have four overall
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLiberal Democrats gain overall majority in Shropshirepublished at 18:32 British Summer Time 2 May18:32 BST 2 MayBreakingMost of the results are in for Shropshire Council and the Lib Dems have gained an overall majority with 39 councillors - this is an increase of 24 seats for the party
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingStarmer on course to be a one-term prime minister
Badenoch sayspublished at 18:30 British Summer Time 2 May18:30 BST 2 MayConservative leader Kemi Badenoch spoke earlier today in Peterborough alongside Paul Bristow
who won the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral election this afternoon
She told Conservative councillors who have lost their seats that she is "sincerely sorry" and that while the public are "fed up" with Labour
they are not yet ready to trust the Tories
"What I saw everywhere I campaigned was that people are fed up with the Labour government," she said
"They were angry about winter fuel payments
but they are still not yet ready to trust us."
Badenoch added today's election results show that Prime Minister Keir Starmer is "on course to be a one-term prime minister"
"We have a big job to do to rebuild trust with the public
adding that her job is to get the party back to being a credible alternative to Labour."
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLib Dems believe they have won majority in Shropshirepublished at 18:17 British Summer Time 2 May18:17 BST 2 MayElizabeth GlinkaPolitical editor
The Liberal Democrats believe they have done enough to take control of Shropshire Council and will win 42 seats on the authority
Thirty-eight is required for an overall majority
Counting is ongoing and official declarations are yet to take place
Reform has exceeded expectations and is currently the second largest party on 13 seats
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform well in the lead as Doncaster reaches halfway markpublished at 18:11 British Summer Time 2 May18:11 BST 2 MayLucy AshtonBBC Sheffield political reporter
We are about halfway through the Doncaster Council count and so far
compared to Labour’s four and the Conservative’s two
who is married to former local Labour MP Caroline Flint
was among those who lost his seat to Reform
Doncaster has a directly-elected Mayor though
so there will not be any discussions about no overall control or majority parties
will form a cabinet and has the authority to push through most council decisions
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWhat did Labour promise on energy bills?published at 18:04 British Summer Time 2 May18:04 BST 2 MayBy Rupert Carey
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingFarage suggests Reform will cut DEI jobs
working from homepublished at 17:57 British Summer Time 2 May17:57 BST 2 MayReform leader Nigel Farage says his party will be "radical
a breath of fresh air in county hall" after taking control of several local councils
He tells BBC Look North that while they "can't wave magic wands"
Reform will have a "very different approach to local government"
"There is too much wasteful expenditure
we want to try and change that," says Farage
I suggest you look for another job."
DEI is a set of principles designed to make people of various backgrounds – including socio-economic class
gender and physical ability – feel supported
They have been a cause of recent controversy in US politics
where President Donald Trump - who Farage is a vocal supporter of - has aggressively sought to end them and "restore merit-based opportunity"
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingA profound moment in modern British politicspublished at 17:48 British Summer Time 2 May17:48 BST 2 MayChris MasonPolitical editor
Demolishing the duopoly in British politics
The formation of the Social Democratic Party in 1981
when the Conservative share of the vote was 9% to Labour’s 14%
big majorities at Westminster for the Conservatives or Labour
In 2017 the big two in the Commons swept up 82.4% of the vote combined
Perspective should triumph over breathlessness
But it is also true that if yesterday was a test to establish if Reform could match their opinion poll ratings with actual votes they have actually surpassed that
This then is a profound moment in our contemporary politics whatever lies ahead
the Conservatives and others will be obliged to respond to it
Senior Reform figures believe the primary driving motivation behind their surge
that most powerful of human emotions: betrayal; betrayal
two things to observe: the perceived competence
to fuel further rise or fall and the reaction from their rivals it provokes
And a final thought - if English politics feels splintered and noisy
remember Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland too contribute further to the cacophony of political voices demanding our attention and endorsement
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLatest England council results at a glancepublished at 17:39 British Summer Time 2 May17:39 BST 2 MayWe've seen a flurry of new council results coming in over the last few hours
only Reform has taken control of a council from another party
Here's a full breakdown by party of the results so far:
There are currently seven councils with no overall control: Devon
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLib Dems take control of Cambridgeshire County Councilpublished at 17:29 British Summer Time 2 May17:29 BST 2 MayBreakingAll of the results are in and
the Liberal Democrats have taken control of Cambridgeshire
Labour now holds five seats after losing four
No party had overall control of the council prior to the election
Sky's Economics and data editor Ed Conway has described their victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election as 'extraordinary'
A Labour MP has accused Keir Starmer of being 'tone deaf' after the Prime Minister vowed to deliver change quickly after 'disappointing' local election results
Emma Lewell, Labour MP for South Shields since 2013, took to social media to call out Keir Starmer after local elections across England on Thursday
"If you promise people that you will be forced on serving the public and then do not listen to them
do not expect them to vote for you," she wrote
denial of compensation for the WASPI women
This comes as Labour had a "disappointing" local election result
as Reform UK surge to victory in the Runcorn by-election
"It is tone deaf to keep repeating we will move further and faster on our plan for change," Ms Lewell wrote
"What we need is a change of plan."
Elections pic.twitter.com/Xq3zIr3Ia0
Speaking on a visit to Bedfordshire on Friday
the PM said he wanted to go "further and faster on the change that people want to see" after Reform surged to victory
Despite the "disappointing" results
he insisted that the government had made "tough but right" decisions such as hiking national insurance
cutting winter fuel allowance for pensioners and curbing benefits
"The reason that we took the tough but right decisions in the budget was because we inherited a broken economy," he said
He added: "Maybe other prime ministers would have walked past that
I took the choice to make sure our economy was stable."
Reform's Sarah Pochin beat Sir Keir's candidate Karen Shore by six votes in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election
taking the seat which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than a year ago
Reform won control of Staffordshire Council - their first ever council majority
Labour narrowly retained mayoralties in both Doncaster and North Tyneside
who was present at the by-election count at the Halton Stadium in Widnes
said: "Provisional announcement from Runcorn & Helsby is Reform wins by four votes."
Read more: With Reform knocking on the door of local politics, the Tories look set for a bloodbath, writes LBC's Natasha Clark
Read More: 'What does he actually stand for?': Nigel Farage rips into Starmer as he hails victory in knife-edge Runcorn by-election
the news came in that Reform had indeed won the race by just six votes
in what will go down as the closest race in by-election history
Sarah Pochin becomes the constituency's new MP after securing 12,645 votes
85 ballots were rejected as part of the recount
Nigel Farage said it was a “big moment” for Reform UK as he arrived at the Runcorn and Helsby count
and it's happening right across England."
Farage said the country has "lost faith" in Labour and pointed to the increase in channel crossings as a key reason for their defeat
It seems that whatever Morgan McSweeney writes for him on a piece of paper he reads out
there's no conviction in this Labour Party
the things that switched a lot of old Labour voters to us in this constituency
they have alarms that go off in the morning
they cross the bridge and work in Merseyside
“Mostly the taxes they pay are going up and they wonder why they're doing it
a feeling that somehow Labour is not a patriotic party
there are 750 young men who've crossed the English Channel living in this constituency at the expense of hard-working taxpayers
Its influence on this by election was enormous.”
said: "We have made history here tonight."
The contest to become the new MP for Runcorn and Helsby was the first by-election under Keir Starmer's leadership
and was seen as hugely important for both Reform and Labour
Labour said by-elections are "always difficult for the party in Government" and the events surrounding the Runcorn And Helsby vote made it "even harder" after Reform UK's Sarah Pochin won the seat
A party spokesperson said: "By-elections are always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder
"Voters are still rightly furious with the state of the country after 14 years of failure and clearly expect the Government to move faster with the plan for change
"While Labour has suffered an extremely narrow defeat
the shock is that the Conservative vote has collapsed
Moderate voters are clearly appalled by the talk of a Tory-Reform pact
"There are encouraging signs that our plan for change is working - NHS waiting lists
inflation and interest rates down with wages up - but we will go further and faster to deliver change with relentless focus on putting money back into people's pockets."
The vote was triggered after former Labour MP Mike Amesbury quit the party after admitting punching a constituent in the street
Amesbury pleaded guilty to assaulting constituent Paul Fellows
for which he was given a suspended sentence
Amesbury won his seat last year with a majority of 14,696 over Reform UK
and his resignation became the first by-election test for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party
It comes as a number of by-elections are being held across England
and Reform UK is contesting nearly all of them
More than 1,600 council seats are up for grabs across 23 local authorities
while four regional mayors and two local mayors will be elected
Reform only put forward candidates in 12% of all available council seats
Farage said the party is deploying nearly a "full list of candidates across the entire country"
The leader of the right-wing populist party
said he wanted to “smash the two-party system”
Reform does not currently run any councils
but critics and supporters alike will be eager to see how they will run local authorities if they do win councils and mayoral contests
The level of votes they receive at the local level will also be a major electoral test for the party
which has publicly spoken about their ambitions to win the next general election and run the country
Most of the council seats were last contested in May 2021
at a time when the then-Conservative government
led by former prime minister Boris Johnson
was enjoying a spike in popularity following the successful rollout of the first Covid-19 vaccines
This means the Tories are defending a large number of seats across much of the country: they currently control 19 of the 23 local authorities holding elections on Thursday
either as the majority party or a minority administration
What the Britain Predicts forecast says with a few days to go
A few hundred votes in County Cheshire threaten what should have been a Labour safe seat
a political era where the most popular party in the country is polling on just 25 per cent of the vote
Runcorn and Helsby is two thirds Runcorn (an industrial town with a cargo port) and one third Helsby
a collection of well-to-do small parish villages with experimental pub lunches (recommendations available on request)
These parts couldn’t be further from each other in need
Modelling suggested Runcorn proper was heading Reform’s way long before this contest was called
Votes in by-elections in St Helens and Tameside and in south Wales suggest the radical right would out perform expectations in the built-up areas of red-brick Britain
I live a twenty minute walk from Runcorn and Helsby’s edge
In the wealthy areas they vote Conservative in council contests
Labour is hoping Tory votes will shift leftward to keep Reform at bay
The hope behind this – shall we call it a Stop Farage campaign – is that Tories prefer Labour to Reform
Tory voters in Labour vs Reform fights tend to lean Reform
But when you control for affluence it isn’t so simple
Rich Conservative voters are more split on the question
I hear of former Conservative councillors in the locale conceding that they will vote Labour for the first time
It makes sense for Labour to give the strategy a go
But it speaks to the desperation of it all
Talk to both Labour and Reform figures on the ground about the horse race nature of this fight and they speak in unison
“I don’t understand what Labour is up to,” one Reform insider tells me
“They must have private polling which doesn’t look good.” Meanwhile
Labour activists report encountering fewer Reform voters on the doorstep than they expected
More apathetics than out-and-out Faragistas
Reform is banking on voters with an unreliable history of voting
in part because some traditional voters will stay home (Labour looks like “more of the same” than “a real change” as More in Common polling finds); and in part because traditional non-voters are psyched up by Farage
The problem for the conventional parties is these new non-voters lean Reform
On the voter sheets they are often written off as not voting
This polling is backed up in part by council by-elections
But in a high risk game of constituency contest
Which brings us to the Britain Predicts model
Two things to consider: turnout and vote share
votes tallied on Thursday 1 May will likely range from 23,000 to 29,000
This isn’t out there for a parliamentary by-election
The modelling suggests most of the variation will come from Runcorn-proper
Reform’s reliance on voters with an unreliable record of voting is where the uncertainty lies here
Previously, the model gave the seat to Labour by 33 per cent to 30 per cent
Now the tactical voting feature has been applied
and the numbers are as follows: Labour 36 per cent
The model’s central estimate anticipates 25,853 votes to be cast
too: Labour should expect to pull in between 32.6 and 39.5 per cent of the vote; whereas Reform is on course to win between 31.7 and 40.1 per cent of the vote
The greater range for Reform can primarily be attributed to
But the central estimate from Britain Predicts is this: a gasping lead for Labour in one of its safer seats in the country
The party has nothing to be happy about that
[See more: Does Labour have a “forgotten flank”?]
Reform UK has gained its fifth MP after narrowly edging to victory in the first by-election test of Labour's parliament
Sarah Pochin overturned a Labour majority of nearly 15,000 in the Cheshire constituency of Runcorn and Helsby
making her the first Reform MP in the North West of England
It was dramatic night after the declaration was delayed as the close nature of the contest led to a recount
with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage forced to wait before arriving at the count centre in Widnes for his moment of triumph
The declaration came at just before 6am on Friday 2 May
with Mr Farage calling it a "big moment" for politics
He said it was a sign that Sir Keir Starmer had “alienated so much of his traditional base
The seat was once regarded as one of Labour's safest areas
but hailing her victory Ms Pochin said "“Firstly
who has so inspired me to stand up for this country.”
She added: “The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken - enough is enough
“I want to thank every one of you who were brave enough to put a cross against my name on the ballot paper
every one of you who have put their faith in me as your next Member of Parliament for this constituency
and who have put their faith in Nigel Farage as the next Prime Minister of this great country.”
Sir Keir Starmer said Labour’s loss was “disappointing” and the Government needed to go “further and faster” in delivering change
He has been criticised for not visiting the constituency during campaigning - something the party says is normal for a by-election
Kim Johnson, who represents Liverpool Riverside for Labour described the Runcorn result as “a warning we can’t ignore”
“Voters want change – and if we don’t offer it with bold
the alternative won’t be more of the same - it’ll be an extreme right-wing government.”
The election was sparked by the resignation of the former MP Mike Amesbury after he was convicted of punching a constituent in October 2024
Ms Pochin won the constituency by just six votes
with Labour coming second with 12,639 votes
A total of 15 different candidates were on the ballot paper when polls opened on 1 May
in the House of Commons to represent the party
Rupert Lowe was also elected for Reform UK during the 2024 general election
but had the whip removed from him in March after police and internal investigations were started against him
Reform leader hopeful of win against Labour while Tories face losing hundreds of seats in the local elections in England
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Nigel Farage is talking up pulling off a major victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election
“Every time I go back I feel the gap with Labour is closing so I think we are in with a real chance,” said Reform UK’s leader who has visited the constituency three times
Winning the previously safe Labour seat would be a “significant” breakthrough for Reform UK
as its predecessor Eurosceptic party UKIP failed to make such progress
Sir Keir Starmer has conceded that the by-election on May 1 will be “tough” and in a sign that Labour fear losing it he has not visited the constituency
“I’m just going for gold,” Mr Farage told Times Radio
“We are going out to win and we have got a chance of doing it.”
Professor of Politics at Strathcylde University
highlighted two MRP polls of Runcorn and Helsby
“It certainly suggests it could be close,” he said
explaining whether Reform could pick up “protest votes” could be key
He added: “If Reform do manage to win the seat it will be significant because one of the things that UKIP never managed to do was to win a parliamentary by-election other than when a Tory MP stood down having defected to UKIP and then fought the subsequent by-election.”
The by-election follows the resignation of former MP Mike Amesbury, who won a clear majority for Labour in the 2024 general election, with 22,358 votes to Reform’s 7,662, but then received a 10-week suspended prison sentence after pleading guilty to punching a constituent last year.
At the same time, voters will go to the polls in 23 council areas across England and vote in six mayoral contests across devolved regions in elections that are forecast to see Reform make big gains at the expense of the Conservatives and possibly Labour
A YouGov poll on Tuesday put Reform on 26%
Sir John stressed what remained to be seen was whether Reform could convert large numbers of votes into actually winning council seats and mayoralties, and then delivering if it wins power.
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The Tories will be defending more than 900 seats
once boundary changes are taken into account
The last time these largely shire polls were held was four years ago when the Conservatives were enjoying a surge in popularity under Boris Johnson on the back of the Covid vaccine roll-out
Sir John added: “Losses are inevitable (for the Tories)...do they end up losing more than half their seats...that would be a really bad mark...or do they manage to stem it to lower than that but that is the kind of scale that we are anticipating given that the Conservatives were at 42% in the opinion polls four years ago
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has braced her party for heavy losses but stressed that it needs to “fight for every single vote”.
Sir Keir said: “Most governments after a general election face a tough set of local elections.”
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Play Brightcove videoWatch analysis from the ITV News team on England's local election results
An insurgent Reform UK is celebrating a series of historic victories after winning its first by-election
and taking control of a string of councils in England's local elections
Nigel Farage declared during a victory lap that his party had "had the Labour Party for lunch" and its triumphs marked the "end of two-party politics"
he told ITV News he will "resist" people seeking asylum from being placed in the council areas that Reform now controls
insisting "we've had enough"
before going on to say "Conservative Party is done"
Reform's winning streak began after it secured victory early in Runcorn and Helsby by just six votes
overturning a large Labour majority in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer in his first by-election test as prime minister
A defeated Starmer told ITV News following the "disappointing" result: "I get it."
Reform MP Sarah Pochin's narrow victory saw Reform take a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than 12 months ago
making it the closest by-election result since the end of the Second World War
The party made huge gains against both the Conservatives and Labour
winning hundreds of seats across counties from south to north England
Sir Ed Davey's Lib Dems have also made gains at the Tories’ expense in Devon
He said this shows his party has replaced the Conservatives as “the party of middle England”
The Conservatives lost control of all the councils they were defending
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch told Conservative councillors who lost their seats she was “sincerely sorry” and that while the public are “fed up” with Labour
Starmer says he'll go 'further and faster'
while Labour MPs urge for change of direction
Speaking to ITV News after the by-election
Starmer said: "Many prime ministers will respond to this by saying 'oppositions always do well in these sorts of by-elections' or 'it was very close' - and it was very close
"All of that is perfectly true but my response is to say
"We were elected into government at the general election last year to deliver change
We've started that work - waiting lists are coming down
interest rates are down - that's all good for working people
But the message I take out of these results is that we need to go further and faster with change
"People need to see and feel that change..
We're going to double down on that now."
'I get it,' the PM tells ITV News
insisting his government will 'go further and faster' to deliver change
Labour MPs including Diane Abbott and Emma Lewell publicly called on the government to change course following the results
arguing that voters had wanted an end to austerity but faced further cuts
"I think that a lot of mainstream Labour supporters are feeling very disillusioned and are feeling this isn't their Labour Party
it's about Labour values," Abbott told ITV News
"I want the leadership to start to speak up for some of our more marginalised and poorer communities
She fears the party is "moving towards the right" and that the direction it's taken is "alarming"
condemning a series of decisions the leadership has taken since winning the election
such as failing to lift the two-child benefit cap
scrapping the winter fuel allowance and cutting benefits for the disabled
she doesn't think it's too late to turn things around as long as the party "learns the lessons" from these results
Fellow Labour MP Emma Lewell said in a post on X: “Trust matters
If you promise people that you will be focused on serving the public and then do not listen to them
denial of compensation for the Waspi women
She added: “It is tone deaf to keep repeating we will move further and faster on our plan for change
Reform wins several county councils and two mayoral positions
Reform's wins kept on coming as the party took control of eight county councils on Friday afternoon
leading Farage to declare Reform is "now the main opposition party" and that a “big moment” was taking place in UK politics
Its candidates took more than a staggering 50 seats at Durham County Council
while Reform took another 45 seats on the former Tory-controlled Kent
Reform swiped another three county councils
It swiped Doncaster council from Labour - marking the start of an interesting split in the county between the parties with Reform controlling the council and a Labour mayor elected
'We will resist and fight as much as we can people who cross the English Channel being placed in these counties,' Nigel Farage tells ITV News Political Correspondent Harry Horton
Farage said any council staff working on diversity or climate change initiatives
or those who work from home should look for other jobs
"I would advise anybody who’s working for Durham County Council on climate change initiatives or Diversity
Equity and Inclusion or… thinks that you can go on working from home
I think you all better really be seeking alternative careers very
It came after Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected the party's first mayor for Greater Lincolnshire on Friday morning with a majority of almost 40,000 over the Conservatives
She said in her victory speech that asylum seekers should be housed in tents
When ITV News asked Farage whether that is Reform policy
he replied: "No I'm much harder line than that
Reform won its second mayoralty when ex-boxer and former Olympic gold medallist Luke Campbell was elected for Hull & East Yorkshire
There was some good news for Labour as the party won mayoral elections in North Tyneside
Helen Godwin beat Reform’s Arron Banks in the West of England by 5,945 votes
The party also held the North Tyneside mayoralty
although with a majority of just 444 ahead of Reform in second place
Labour held on to the mayoralty with a majority of 698 over Reform
the Tories - amid the bruising council losses - took a mayoralty from Labour
with victory for ex-MP Paul Bristow in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
The position had been Labour held since 2021
but their candidate Anna Smith came in third behind the Lib Dems
Voters 'hungry for change,' writes Political Correspondent Shehab Khan from North Lincolnshire
As we prepared to go live for ITVX in North Lincolnshire
a car sped past behind us and a man shouted “Reform!” while punching the air - an unprompted but clear display of the enthusiasm that many are feeling
A performative act for the camera no doubt but it reflects the buoyant mood among some Reform supporters
the party is making significant gains and many of the voters that we have spoken to yesterday and today in Grimsby tell us they are hungry for change
and feel that neither Labour nor the Conservatives are willing or able to deliver it
One couple we spoke to told us they were Tory voters but now believe the party is too weak on the issues that matter to them and they are feeling positive that Reform will be the voice they are looking for
The election of Dame Andrea Jenkyns as the first Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire now offers a revealing opportunity to see how Reform governs in practice
She'll oversee a £24 million budget and hold influence over key areas such as transport
One member of the shadow cabinet summed up their mood with a pointed remark: “Let’s see how they get on when there’s actual work to do.”
Runcorn and Helsby was a by-election full of drama after Reform won the seat by just four votes - but a Labour-requested recount then pushed the margin to six
The vote was triggered when former Labour MP Mike Amesbury quit after admitting to punching a constituent
Farage said he was "delighted" with the win
and branded the prime minister a "coward" when asked why he thought Starmer had not visited the constituency during the campaign
Pochin said the people of Runcorn and Helsby had spoken
“We have made history in Runcorn and Helsby..
Chairwoman of the Labour Party Ellie Reeves told ITV News it was a by-election "held in difficult circumstances" for the party and rejected that Reform's gains overnight marked the end of two-party politics
'It's very premature to say politics has changed,' says ITV News Elections Analyst
She suggested Reform would face greater scrutiny after its electoral gains
"People will be looking closely now at Reform's policies - not just the noise that they make but actually what it is that they stand for," she said
as she swiped at Farage's suggestions that the NHS should not be publicly funded
The Tories said the change Starmer delivered had been “roundly rejected” and Labour MPs will “rightfully question his leadership” after Reform’s by-election win
From Westminster to Washington DC - our political experts are across all the latest key talking points
in Kemi Badenoch’s first electoral test as leader
were also suffering at the hands of Reform and were squeezed by the Liberal Democrats
Most of the council seats that were up for grabs were last contested in May 2021
was enjoying a spike in popularity following the successful roll-out of the first Covid vaccines
who'd been largely quiet for much of the day
admitting it is a "very difficult" day of results for her party and apologised to councillors who'd lost their seats
Badenoch wrote: "These were always going to be a very difficult set of elections coming off the high of 2021
and our historic defeat last year - and so it’s proving
"The renewal of our party has only just begun and I’m determined to win back the trust of the public and the seats we’ve lost
Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News
First mayoral race results expected around 2am with important Runcorn and Helsby byelection result about an hour later
Polls have closed across England for local and mayoral elections
with the first results due to be announced within hours
It is the first full-scale electoral test for Keir Starmer since the general election
and could have notable repercussions for Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch
as well as to a lesser extent for the Liberal Democrats and Greens
The elections cover 24 councils across England, as well as six mayoralties and a byelection in the formerly Labour-held seat of Runcorn and Helsby in Cheshire
which is being closely contested by Reform UK
will be for two of the mayoral races: North Tyneside
which was previously held by Labour but is seen as being a close race between Labour
About an hour later will be perhaps the key result of the night, with voters in Runcorn and Helsby deciding who will succeed Mike Amesbury, the former Labour MP who resigned after being given a suspended prison sentence for punching a man
Bookmakers have Reform as the favourites to overturn Labour’s near-15,000 majority
Labour officials in the constituency on Thursday said the contest appeared too tight to predict
where Reform is hopeful of taking the newly created post
which is Labour-held and where the party believes it can win again
the bulk of the council votes will not be counted before Friday morning
with many results not finalised until well into the afternoon
Results are seen as particularly hard to predict given the atomised polling figures
Labour and the Conservatives each recording national support generally between 20% and 25%
and the Lib Dems and Greens not notably far behind
One thing that does seem certain is that the Conservatives will lose many hundreds of council seats
in part because they did so well in 2021 when the same seats were last contested
amid the brief fillip of Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce”
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A particularly bad night could put new pressure on Badenoch’s leadership of the party
but Conservative MPs say there is minimal chance of any formal challenge to her for now
not least because so many voters expressed distaste at the Tories’ internal divisions in the run-up to last year’s general election
Starmer can most likely gloss over a modest night in council results
and in a couple or several of the mayoral races
would set off new jitters in Downing Street
The Lib Dems and Greens will be hopeful of making gains
but also wary about potential ingress by Reform
Labour candidate insists seat is ‘definitely still in play’ in first electoral test of Keir Starmer’s government
Labour’s candidate in Thursday’s Runcorn and Helsby byelection has insisted the contest is “definitely still in play” as Reform UK became odds-on favourite to win
Two polls have suggested Nigel Farage’s party is on track to overturn Labour’s 14,700 majority in the first electoral test of Keir Starmer’s premiership
It would mark one of the biggest swings in voter opinion in recent UK political history and would be a significant blow to Starmer in one of Labour’s safest seats
told the Guardian the reception had been “really positive” and victory was still in sight
“It’s going to be close and we need to make sure we work it until the end,” she said
Labour’s campaign in Runcorn and Helsby attracted criticism after Shore launched a Facebook petition to close “the asylum hotel” – a tactic described by Zarah Sultana
the former Labour MP who now sits as an independent
who had “warmly welcomed” asylum seekers to the area while she was deputy council leader
denied it was a “cynical” attempt to stem the flow of votes to Reform UK
She said: “I accept that the tone of it could’ve been slightly different – and the fact it was exploited by the populists.”
I spent half my life fighting prejudice and discrimination and I just can’t abide some of the rhetoric that comes out of them,” she said
it was controversial at the beginning of the campaign
and reflecting on it [we] could have handled it slightly differently but I still stand by the fact that we do need to close them.”
said placing asylum seekers in a hotel was “no way to live” and that “we need to do better than that for people”
Senior Labour figures have sought to manage expectations ahead of polling day on Thursday, with the prime minister admitting it would be “tough” and Ellie Reeves, the party chair, accusing the Conservatives of “gifting” the seat to Farage by not campaigning
Bookmakers have made Farage’s party odds-on favourite to win the Cheshire byelection
which was triggered by the resignation of Mike Amesbury
the former deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester council
said: “We knew at the beginning of this campaign that it was going to be challenging and difficult because of the national picture and the fact it’s a byelection – there’s 15 candidates
“We came in knowing that it was going to be a slog but I’m the kind of person who doesn’t give up and I’m in it to win it.”
houses of multiple occupation and Turkish barbers
Shore said her rival’s campaign had “demonise[d] people” to “create fear and scapegoat people”
It’s for them to say whether they’re racist or not.”
Reform UK has won a closely-run by-election in Runcorn and Helsby by a historically slim margin for just six votes
A full recount of votes in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election was called as Zia Yusuf
told Sky News the vote could be as close as just four ballots
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former Conservative councillor Pochin took the Cheshire constituency by just six votes
wiping out Labour's majority of more than 14,000 from last year's general election
The by-election was called following the resignation of Mike Amesbury
who resigned after his conviction for assaulting a constituent
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Reform UK has won the first by-election of this parliament in Runcorn and Helsby
Reform candidate Sarah Pochin secured 12,645 votes
Labour candidate Karen Shore finished in second place with 12,639 votes — giving Reform a margin of victory of just six votes
It is comfortably the smallest majority achieved by a party at a by-election in post-war history
The result was finally declared after a full recount was ordered in the constituency
The by-election in Labour’s 49th safest seat was triggered by the resignation of former MP Mike Amesbury
who stood down following an assault charge in March
Amesbury spent three nights in HMP Altcourse
in February before successfully appealing his sentence
In her victory speech, she thanked Nigel Farage as Reform’s “great leader” and said the result would “inspire” the rest of the country to believe that they too can “stand up for British values”
She said: “I’ve had a team of very talented
dedicated and professional individuals behind me every step of the way and I would like to thank them all from the bottom of my heart
who has so inspired me to stand up for this country
To our party chairman Zia Yusuf who has given me invaluable support and counsel throughout this campaign
And to the exceptional team led by John Burns my campaign manager
“The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken
And I want to thank every one of you who were brave enough to put a cross against my name on the ballot paper
She added: “I know our victory here in Runcorn and Helsby will inspire the rest of the country to believe that they too can stand up for fairness
for what is right and for our British values
“We have made history tonight here in Runcorn and Helsby
Sarah Pochin
The prime minister, Keir Starmer
did not travel to the Runcorn and Helsby constituency during the campaign
Farage told broadcasters: “What it sends is a message not just from here but across the country that we are now the opposition to the Labour party
and actually in most parts of the country now
Runcorn and Helsby is a new constituency that was only created in time for the general election in July 2024
More than half of it (51.2 per cent) came from the former constituency of Weaver Vale
with 37.1 per cent from Halton and the remainder from three other former constituencies — Ellesmere Port and Neston
won a clear majority for Labour in the 2024 general election
The Conservatives finished third — more than 900 votes behind Reform
Labour said voters “clearly expect the government to move faster” to change the country
A Labour spokesperson said: “By-elections are always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder
Voters are still rightly furious with the state of the country after 14 years of failure and clearly expect the government to move faster with the Plan for Change
“While Labour has suffered an extremely narrow defeat
“There are encouraging signs that our Plan for Change is working – NHS waiting lists
inflation and interest rates down with wages up – but we will go further and faster to deliver change with relentless focus on putting money back into people’s pockets.”
The Conservative Party said the result suggests Keir Starmer is “on course to be a one-term prime minister”
A spokesperson commented: “This result is a damning verdict on Keir Starmer’s leadership which has led to Labour losing a safe seat
“Just 10 months ago Labour won an enormous majority
including in this seat with 52% of the vote
but their policies have been a punch in the face for the people of Runcorn
Snatching Winter Fuel Payments from vulnerable pensioners
pushing farmers to the brink with their vindictive Family Farms Tax and hammering families with a £3500 jobs tax
families are being punished for their disastrous decisions in government
Now we know why Keir Starmer never bothered to visit the area
but the change he’s delivered has been roundly rejected
Keir Starmer’s MPs will rightfully question his leadership and whether he is now on course to be a one term prime minister.”
Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Bluesky here
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Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has secured victory by six votes over Labour in Runcorn and Helsby as Sir Keir Starmer failed his first by-election test as Prime Minister.
The narrow victory for new MP Sarah Pochin saw Reform taking a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than 12 months ago.
The result came as Reform made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local contests, with Mr Farage claiming a “big moment” was taking place in politics.
The by-election was triggered when former Labour MP Mike Amesbury quit after admitting punching a constituent.
Amesbury won 53% of the vote at the general election – and the defeat, along with Reform gains in other Labour heartlands, will cause unease in Downing Street.
Mr Farage said: “For the movement, for the party, it’s a very, very big moment indeed, absolutely, no question, and it’s happening right across England.”
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As you heard there, the first shock of the night was the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in Cheshire, which was a nailbiter for all involved.
Triggered by the conviction of its MP for punching a constituent, Reform’s Sarah Pochin overturned Labour’s huge majority, to win it by just six votes.
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Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has secured victory by six votes over Labour in Runcorn and Helsby as Sir Keir Starmer failed his first by-election test as Prime Minister
The narrow victory for new MP Sarah Pochin saw Reform taking a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than 12 months ago
The result came as Reform made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local contests, with Mr Farage claiming a “big moment” was taking place in politics.
Amesbury won 53% of the vote at the general election – and the defeat, along with Reform gains in other Labour heartlands, will cause unease in Downing Street.
Mr Farage said: “For the movement, for the party, it’s a very, very big moment indeed, absolutely, no question, and it’s happening right across England.”
He said it was a sign that Sir Keir had “alienated so much of his traditional base, it’s just extraordinary”.
The Runcorn declaration was delayed as the close nature of the contest led to a recount, with Mr Farage forced to wait before arriving at the count centre in Widnes for his moment of triumph.
In her speech after winning the seat, Ms Pochin said voters had made clear “enough is enough”.
“Enough Tory failure, enough Labour lies,” she said.
“I know our victory here in Runcorn and Helsby will inspire the rest of the country to believe that they too can stand up for fairness, for what is right and for our British values and their voices can be heard. We have made history in Runcorn and Helsby.”
Labour said by-elections are “always difficult for the party in Government” and the events surrounding the Runcorn and Helsby vote made it “even harder”.
But a party spokesman said: “There are encouraging signs that our plan for change is working – NHS waiting lists, inflation and interest rates down with wages up – but we will go further and faster to deliver change with relentless focus on putting money back into people’s pockets.”
However, Doncaster’s Labour mayor Ros Jones – who was re-elected with a majority of 698 after a battle with Reform – hit out at the Prime Minister’s administration.
She criticised decisions to means-test the winter fuel allowance, hike employers’ national insurance contributions and squeeze welfare.
She told the BBC: “I think the results here tonight will demonstrate that they need to be listening to the man, woman and businesses on the street, and actually deliver for the people, with the people.”
As well as the Runcorn by-election, voters on Thursday took part in contests to elect more than 1,600 councillors across 23 local authorities, along with four regional mayors and two local mayors.
Reform’s Dame Andrea Jenkyns, a former Conservative minister, won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoral race.
There was some good news for Labour as the party held the West of England mayoralty, with Helen Godwin beating Reform’s Arron Banks by 5,945 votes, with the Green Party’s Mary Page in third.
The party held the North Tyneside mayoralty, although with a majority of just 444 ahead of Reform in second place.
The Tories said the change Sir Keir had been “roundly rejected” and Labour MPs will “rightfully question his leadership” after Reform’s by-election win.
A Conservative Party spokesman said: “Now we know why Keir Starmer never bothered to visit the area.”
The Tories, in Kemi Badenoch’s first electoral test as leader, were also suffering at the hands of Reform and could also be squeezed by the Liberal Democrats.
Reform look set to take control of Staffordshire County Council after taking 24 of the 30 seats to be counted overnight, with Conservatives winning the other six.
It means when counting resumes later on Friday, Reform need to win just eight more seats to have a majority on the council.
Conservative frontbencher Helen Whately told BBC’s Newsnight: “We’re going to get a real battering in these elections.”
Shadow communities secretary Kevin Hollinrake acknowledged the party was on course to lose around 500 councillors.
He told the BBC: “We thought we’d lose half our seats.”
If it was worse, “that would be very disappointing”, he added.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said: “We are expecting to see big gains against the Conservatives in their former Middle England heartlands.”
The Green Party was also hoping for success in local contests, with co-leader Carla Denyer saying: “We are taking seats from both the Conservatives and Labour up and down the country as voters, understandably, move away from the tired old parties that have let us all down.”
CloseReform has won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes
one of the closest parliamentary elections ever
The party's leader Nigel Farage appeared at the count alongside the candidate Sarah Pochin
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRead descriptionEditor's recommendationsWatch: The moment Reform won Runcorn and Helsby by-election
00:00:49Watch: The moment Reform won Runcorn and Helsby by-election
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CloseReform UK's newest MP Sarah Pochin has promised to serve all of the people of Runcorn and Helsby following her by-election victory
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingRead descriptionEditor's recommendationsWatch: New Runcorn and Helsby MP's victory speech
00:02:06Watch: New Runcorn and Helsby MP's victory speech
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Jake Ashton Senior News Editor Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert
with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
the latest odds show Reform UK firmly in control of the betting market for the Runcorn and North Helsby By-Election
Reform’s price has moved from 4/11 earlier this month to 2/5, according to Star Sports
confirming their status as the clear frontrunner.
In our previous update Reform were given a 73% chance which has now drifted to over 71% again with slight market fluctuation
Labour sit at 7/4 with UK Betting Sites and will be needing a strong local turnout and tactical support to pull off a comeback win
Jake Ashton - Senior News Editor - OLBG.com
Labour remain second favourites in Runcorn and North Helsby which is a key marginal area formed in boundary changes.
The 7/4 price suggests the party is still competitive but faces a tough task to unseat Reform
whose campaign has resonated locally on issues such as immigration
and all independent candidates trail at long odds signalling a likely two-horse race unless turnout surprises the market
Markets for the Runcorn and North Helsby By-Election are available now at select betting sites, with the latest prices led by Star Sports.
If you’re backing a party or spotting late value, don’t forget to check for free bets ahead of polling day
For a wider look at UK political markets, explore our top political betting sites guide
© 2002-2024 OLBG, part of Invendium Ltd
After sweeping to power in councils across England in last week's local elections, Reform says it will ban non-British flags from flying over buildings now in its control.
That's it from us at the Politics Hub tonight.
We'll be back bright and early tomorrow morning, with the very latest from Westminster.
But for now, scroll back through to see how the day's events unfolded. From the furore over flags, to concerns about Israel's plans for Gaza and Trump's potential tariffs on the film industry, it's been a busy bank holiday Monday.
As we edge into the final hours of the bank holiday, we thought we'd take a little look at the week ahead and see what's in store for those in Westminster.
Tomorrow will be the first day back for MPs as they return from the Mayday recess.
It'll also be the first day for one MP, as Reform's first female MP, Sarah Pochin, will be sworn into the Commons, following the party's victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last week.
The former Conservative councillor is expected to take her seat at 2:30pm at the start of business in the Commons, Sky News understands.
Also expected to be sworn in are the two new Reform UK regional mayors, again, both elected last week.
Former Conservative minister Andrea Jenkyns and Olympic boxer Luke Campbell will both take up their roles in Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull and East Yorkshire respectively.
They're not the only two new mayors, but we've highlighted these two because they're part of the theme of the week: Reform.
Watch: The key moments from the 2025 local elections
Both Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch will be feeling Nigel Farage's party breathing down their necks after Reform gained 10 councils (from a starting position of none) and almost 700 new councillors on Friday.
By comparison, the Tories lost control of every single council they contested.
It's put the fire under some disgruntled Labour backbenchers, most notably former minister Louise Haigh, who have begun to publicly vocalise discontent with Starmer and the party's direction following the results.
The PM's day tomorrow starts with cabinet - no doubt a public display of unity before some tricky conversations are had in private. That's at 9:30am and is the first one since the local elections.
Wednesday will bring the first PMQs since the local elections.
But Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has had just as bruising an experience at the local elections, if not more so, than Starmer.
We'll have to see whether she takes the fight to the PM over Labour's by-election loss and the growing calls for him to ease (if not reverse) his cuts to winter fuel payments, which some Labour MPs view as being key to their poor performance last week.
Jeremy Corbyn-ally and vocal critic Dianne Abbott may also cause further headaches for the PM as she will be leading a debate on personal independence payments (Pip) and disabled people - another sore spot for Starmer, which is being suggested as a possible wrong turn for the party.
The PM will no doubt be grateful of the shorter three-day parliamentary week, but there's little doubt it will also be an uncomfortable couple of days for Badenoch and the Conservatives too.
Expect to see jubilant scenes from Reform and from the Liberal Democrats over the coming days, the latter also seizing control of three councils on Friday and seeking to squeeze the Tories further by declaring themselves the "party of Middle England".
And of course, we'll bring you all the twists and turns, updates and reactions throughout the week right here on the Politics Hub.
Staff will be allowed to refuse to take part in assisted dying, under new changes being proposed.
NHS pharmacists will be among those given permission to opt out of being involved in delivering the procedure, if assisted dying becomes legal in the UK.
An amendment to the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill is being put forward by the potential law's originator, Kim Leadbeater, this week.
In it, the amendment will make clear that "no person" can be forced to take part in the lethal medical procedure.
Changes will also be made to employment law so that nobody who refuses to participate can be dismissed or face disciplinary action as a result.
Watch: Why has the Assisted Dying Bill divided opinions?
What does the draft legislation currently say on participation?
At the moment, the bill already exempts doctors and other health professionals from having to take part.
But the new amendment will expand this definition to say that "no person is under any duty to participate in the provision of assistance".
That means NHS workers like pharmacists and other staff will also be covered.
A strengthening of the Employment Rights Act will also mean those who don't take part will need to give no reason for opting out.
Leadbeater has said she understands "not all people working in and around the health and care sector would want to participate in the provision of assisted dying".
She added: "I promised during the lengthy committee hearings into the bill that I would look at how we could extend the ‘opt-out’ provisions, and that is what I will be proposing this week.
"As a result, nobody will be at risk of any detriment to their careers if, for any reason at all, they chose not to take part."
What's changed in the bill since it was introduced last year?
A reminder: the bill is a proposal to change the law in England and Wales so that terminally ill adults with less than six months to live would have the right to apply for an assisted death, subject to approval by two doctors and an expert panel.
It has gone through lots of changes since it was first introduced to the House of Commons in November, where MPs voted in favour - moving it on beyond the bill's first stage.
A promise of a High Court safeguard has been scrapped and replace with expert panels.
Meanwhile, the implementation period (when the service must be up and running by following the bill becoming law) has been doubled to a maximum of four years.
How much demand is there for an assisted dying service?
Analysis released on Friday suggested as many as 800 assisted deaths could take place in the first year of it being in place in England and Wales.
The 149-page government impact assessment into the bill said that the total number of assisted deaths is estimated to range from 164 and 787 in the first year, to between 1,042 and 4,559 in year 10.
The same document also set out potential costs of the service and reduced end-of-life care costs.
It estimated that the cost of setting up expert panels and a Voluntary Assisted Dying Commissioner would be an average of between £10.9 million to £13.6 million per year.
But it said it had “not been possible” to estimate the overall implementation costs at this stage of the process, which could include IT, recruitment and training and could begin to kick in within 12 months of the bill getting Royal Assent.
While noting that cutting end-of-life care costs “is not stated as an objective of the policy”, the assessment estimated that such costs could be reduced by as much as an estimated £10 million in the first year and almost £60 million after 10 years.
After a drubbing at the polls last Thursday, a jolly VE Day 80th anniversary street party in Downing Street provided a welcome respite for Sir Keir Starmer.
And minutes before he emerged from the front door of No. 10, the D-Day Darlings sang the famous World War One song “Pack up your troubles … and smile… What’s the use of worrying?”
What indeed? For around 45 minutes, the prime minister and his wife Victoria clearly appeared to be enjoying themselves as they mingled with veterans and 150 or so young cadets.
Celebrity guests included comedian Al Murray, who told Sky News that VE Day was indeed the armed forces’ greatest ever victory, and his wartime podcast partner, James Holland.
Sir Keir had arrived with a huge tray of cakes and then began pouring cups of tea from a giant Union Jack teapot as the guests tucked into sausage rolls, pork pies, sandwiches and scotch eggs.
The PM, of course, doesn’t eat meat and his wife is vegetarian, but the long trestle tables were also adorned with Victoria sponge cake, walnut cake and fairy cakes decorated with Union Jacks.
The Starmers began the party sitting with veterans Ruth Brook Klauber and Colin Deverell, both aged 101, before moving round and chatting to dozens of the guests and posing for photos.
The spritely D-Day Darlings began with one Vera Lynn classic “There’ll Be Bluebirds Over The White Cliffs of Dover” and ended, appropriately, with another, “We’ll Meet Again”.
For the PM, after the fun of a bank holiday street party, it’s back to the grim reality of a cabinet inquest into those dire election results.
But hey, as the song goes: “What’s the use of worrying?”
We've just heard that the PM has been on the phone to his French counterpart this evening, where the pair shared their "deep concern" about the situation in Gaza.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron also agreed more work needs to be done to tackle illegal migration earlier, before people get to the point of boarding a dinghy to cross the English Channel.
In a readout of the call, a spokesperson for Downing Street said the PM and the French president discussed the situation in Gaza in light of Israeli plans approved this morning to hold the Strip indefinitely.
Both leaders agreed that a "renewed peace process" was necessary.
Turning to the other major war holding both nations' attention, the pair agreed on the need to get Russia to commit to a 30-day ceasefire. The spokesperson added that Starmer said Ukraine had "proved it was willing to come to the table... and was the party of peace".
On tackling the record levels of illegal immigration crossing the English Channel, Downing Street said the pair agreed to "step up ambition between the countries across all areas".
In particular, both leaders agreed that more needs to be done to "disrupt irregular migration upstream".
They also reflected on this week's VE Day celebrations and looked forward to upcoming UK-France and UK-EU summits.
The phone call is an important once for the PM, who is facing challenges on tackling illegal immigration - one of the reasons that Reform UK is viewed to have performed so well at last week's local elections.
Last month saw the highest number of people recorded to have crossed the Channel by this point in the year since records began in 2018. Multiple people have also died trying in this year alone.
Meanwhile, the PM is continuing to try to project his role as a world leader, especially on Ukraine - though attempts to exert any influence on the Middle East seems unlikely while US President Donald Trump puts his full weight behind Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Reform has announced it will look to ban non-British flags from the council buildings now under its control.
We asked for your thoughts on the move and were hit by a cavalcade of comments, with strong views on both sides of the debate.
Some reckoned emphasising the Union Jack and the flags of the home nations and counties would boost national pride, while others reckoned the idea felt a little sinister.
We've assembled the highlights from today's debate at the links below - each one features a number of your comments:
Thank you once again to everyone who sent in a comment about today's main story here in the Politics Hub.
Reform's plan to ban non-British flags from the council buildings it now controls has certainly sparked quite the debate.
Here's one final selection of your comments:
"It's about time we took pride in our national flag and stopped using alternative flags to make political or cultural statements. Our flag represents the unity, history and values of the UK."Michael
"Is there nothing better to do than make up problems? There's real war and genocide in the world and this is what gets everyone wound up. Absolutely pointless."Robin
"I think it is awesome they are doing this because people are less patriotic these days."Bob
"Farage and Reform have any real hope of delivering on any truly meaningful policy. The flag flying is all they've got to exert any control over. It's a peurile gesture."Stephanie
"You would have hoped as a modern liberal democracy by the 21st century we would have moved on from this horrible petty philosophy that pushes the boundaries of nationalism."David
"I believe the flags policy is a great way of making young people such as myself love the country I live in. It also brings a sense of community and pride."Brendan
"What a disgraceful insult to the memory of those who fought in WW2 and those who continue to fight for democracy and freedom. We fly the Ukrainian flag in solidarity."Tim
"Showing our support for others who are under duress or in need of help shows the world who we are. We are British and we show our values by supporting the underdogs and opening our arms to those in need, regardless of creed, colour or nationality."Simon
"I agree, only British and local council flags should be flown from council buildings. We need to get back to being proud to be British. It doesn't mean that we don't support other causes, but there are other ways to show this support."John P
"Banning non-British flags will only encourage a narrowed world view in which we do not see outside of ourselves because we are encouraged not to look. It's mandated ignorance."Griffin
We've now closed the comments form above - but keep an eye out for the next opportunity to share your thoughts with us and your fellow readers.
Kemi Badenoch has said it was an "honour" to speak to veterans of the Second World War today.
The embattled leader of the Conservatives attended the parade in London, and also spoke to members of the military and veterans at a tea party held in Buckingham Palace.
The events are the start of four-days of commemoration, culminating in the 80th anniversary of VE Day - Victory in Europe - on Thursday.
Badenoch said: "I had the privilege of speaking with some of our veterans during today’s VE Day military procession.
"Several were over a 100 years old, yet they braved the cold and wind to commemorate this historic anniversary.
"It was a true honour to be alongside them."
The UK "does not support an expansion of Israel's military operations in Gaza", the Foreign Office has confirmed.
It follows the Tel Aviv government approving plans this morning to seize the Gaza Strip and hold it for an unspecified period.
Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel's plan to capture all the strip will be intensive, with troops to remain there for an unspecified length of time.
A spokesperson for the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) said "Palestinian territory must not be reduced".
They added: "We urge all parties to return urgently to talks, implement the ceasefire agreement in full and work towards a permanent peace."
It follows a meeting last month between Sir Keir Starmer and the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammad Mustafa.
Israel's plan has already been rejected by the UN, which said it would leave large parts of the population, including the most vulnerable, without supplies.
The IDF previously cut off all humanitarian aid to Gaza - including fuel, food, and water - before the collapse of a ceasefire in March.
For context: the conflict ignited after Hamas, a group the UK government has designated a terrorist organisation, led an attack on Israel in October 2023, killing more than 1,000 people and taking hundreds hostage.
Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed in Gaza. Israel says 59 captives remain in Gaza, although about 35 are believed to be dead.
Also responding to Israel's plan for the Gaza Strip, the SNP's Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said it was "horrific".
He said: "The world is witnessing war crime after war crime, and our failure to respond makes us all complicit."
Flynn reiterated calls for the UK government to recognise Palestine as a state - which it currently does not - and to cease arms sales to Israel.
"A ridiculous and pathetic waste of time when there are so many other issues in this country. For a party that supposedly values 'freedom' this represses freedom of expression towards proud British values such as support for Ukraine or LGBTQ+ rights."
"Why do people have a problem with this? The UK is multicultural and so it should be, but it should also be able to respect and show its patriotism in any way which we as the public see fit."Johnathan P
I didn't vote for Reform but I agree with the flag policy. Flying other flags, even if in support of perceived worthy policies, is divisive. Not everyone will support that cause. Better to celebrate and build our society around our national identity, as the USA does."James S
"What benefit is there by mandating this, other than to increase tensions among society? Why waste time on populist agendas, when there are far more important issues that need solving?"Stuart
"Populist rubbish from Reform. I was happy to see the Ukrainian flag over our local council building. Stop supporting Ukriane and you'll lose my vote."Alex
"Small-minded nonsense. Seeing other flags is at least educational, and at its best open to diversity, warm and enlightened. Reform are bent on making this country small and irrelevant."Anushka AR
"I agree unless a high dignitary is visiting us. Ukraine is exempt too. So happy to see them today in the VE parade."Glynis M
"It just shows they have no idea what they're doing. It's a complete disgrace during VE Day commemorations to announce you would ban Ukrainian flags. Russia will lap this up."Alistair D
"I voted for Reform. But this move doesn't sit right with me. Reform paint themselves as the party of free speech, but this move is anything but. It saddens me that we may see less Ukrainian flags."Ewan
Thanks to everyone who's sent in a comment on this today - it's been a really lively debate so far.
We'll make time for one more post with your thoughts before 9pm.
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RayonorthsounduknewsReform UK win Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votesA dramatic recount saw Sarah Pochin become the constituencies new MP
Nigel Farage's Reform UK has secured victory by six votes over Labour in Runcorn and Helsby as Sir Keir Starmer failed his first by-election test as Prime Minister
The narrow victory for new MP Sarah Pochin saw Reform taking a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than 12 months ago
The result came as Reform made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local contests
with Mr Farage claiming a "big moment" was taking place in politics
The by-election was triggered when former Labour MP Mike Amesbury quit after admitting punching a constituent
Amesbury won 53% of the vote at the general election - and the defeat
along with Reform gains in other Labour heartlands
The victory for Reform has set a new record for the smallest majority at a parliamentary by-election since the end of the Second World War
In her speech after she was elected as Runcorn and Helsby MP
Reform UK candidate Sarah Pochin thanked her team
who has so inspired me to stand up for this country."
She added: "The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken - enough is enough
"I want to thank every one of you who were brave enough to put a cross against my name on the ballot paper
and who have put their faith in Nigel Farage as the next Prime Minister of this great country."
The result is a blow to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer
who has now lost his first by-election test since entering Number 10
commenting on the Runcorn and Helsby by-election result
said: “By-elections are always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder
"Voters are still rightly furious with the state of the country after 14 years of failure and clearly expect the Government to move faster with the Plan for Change
The Tories said the change Sir Keir Starmer has delivered has been "roundly rejected" and Labour MPs will "rightfully question his leadership" after Reform UK won the by-election
A Conservative Party spokesman said: "This result is a damning verdict on Keir Starmer's leadership which has led to Labour losing a safe seat
"Just 10 months ago Labour won an enormous majority
"Snatching Winter Fuel Payments from vulnerable pensioners
pushing farmers to the brink with their vindictive Family Farms Tax and hammering families with a £3,500 jobs tax
"Now we know why Keir Starmer never bothered to visit the area
but the change he's delivered has been roundly rejected
Keir Starmer's MPs will rightfully question his leadership and whether he is now on course to be a one-term Prime Minister."
Hear all the latest news from the North East of Scotland on Northsound 1. Listen on FM, via our Rayo app, DAB, or smart speaker.
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The by-election victory came on top of gains in local contests across England for Nigel Farage’s party.Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has secured victory by six votes over Labour in Runcorn and Helsby as Sir Keir Starmer failed his first by-election test as Prime Minister.The narrow victory for new MP Sarah Pochin saw Reform taking a constituency…
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The by-election victory came on top of gains in local contests across England for Nigel Farage’s party
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has secured victory by six votes over Labour in Runcorn and Helsby as Sir Keir Starmer failed his first by-election test as Prime Minister
The narrow victory for new MP Sarah Pochin saw Reform taking a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than 12 months ago
with Mr Farage claiming a “big moment” was taking place in politics
Amesbury won 53% of the vote at the general election – and the defeat
He said it was a sign that Sir Keir had “alienated so much of his traditional base
The Runcorn declaration was delayed as the close nature of the contest led to a recount
with Mr Farage forced to wait before arriving at the count centre in Widnes for his moment of triumph
Ms Pochin said voters had made clear “enough is enough”
“I know our victory here in Runcorn and Helsby will inspire the rest of the country to believe that they too can stand up for fairness
for what is right and for our British values and their voices can be heard
We have made history in Runcorn and Helsby.”
Labour said by-elections are “always difficult for the party in Government” and the events surrounding the Runcorn and Helsby vote made it “even harder”
But a party spokesman said: “There are encouraging signs that our plan for change is working – NHS waiting lists
Doncaster’s Labour mayor Ros Jones – who was re-elected with a majority of 698 after a battle with Reform – hit out at the Prime Minister’s administration
She criticised decisions to means-test the winter fuel allowance
hike employers’ national insurance contributions and squeeze welfare
She told the BBC: “I think the results here tonight will demonstrate that they need to be listening to the man
There was some good news for Labour as the party held the West of England mayoralty
with Helen Godwin beating Reform’s Arron Banks by 5,945 votes
The party held the North Tyneside mayoralty
The Tories said the change Sir Keir had been “roundly rejected” and Labour MPs will “rightfully question his leadership” after Reform’s by-election win
were also suffering at the hands of Reform and could also be squeezed by the Liberal Democrats
Reform look set to take control of Staffordshire County Council after taking 24 of the 30 seats to be counted overnight
It means when counting resumes later on Friday
Reform need to win just eight more seats to have a majority on the council
Shadow communities secretary Kevin Hollinrake acknowledged the party was on course to lose around 500 councillors
The Green Party was also hoping for success in local contests
with co-leader Carla Denyer saying: “We are taking seats from both the Conservatives and Labour up and down the country as voters
move away from the tired old parties that have let us all down.”
Reform UK candidate Sarah Pochin's narrow victory took a seat away from Labour
Reform UK has won the by-election in the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby by just six votes
This is according to the results of yesterday's local elections in England
which also included the vote to replace the Labour MP Mike Amesbury
resigned after being convicted of punching a man on October 26
The narrow victory of the Reform UK candidate
took away a seat from the Labour Party that they had won by nearly 15 votes in the parliamentary elections last July
The result shows that “if you vote Conservative
insisting that his party is now the real opposition to the Prime Minister's government Keir Starmer
which involved 23 of England's 317 local authorities
and around 1.270 parish councils (civil parishes are the smallest territorial body in England)
voters were also asked to elect six regional mayors in: West of England
Labour retained its mayoral seat in North Tyneside and defeated Reform UK in West of England and Doncaster
Reform UK did win its first mayoral seat in Greater Lincolnshire
Two more mayoral seats are still up for grabs in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
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STARMER PAYS PRICE FOR BENEFIT CUTS ‘BETRAYAL’
REFORM UK’s Sarah Pochin won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just SIX votes following a knife-edge recount this morning
Former Conservative councillor Sarah Pochin overturned a 14,696 Labour majority to take the Cheshire seat for Reform UK
originally called the Brexit Party when it was founded in 2018
Reform UK now has five MPs and the party has made sweeping gains across England in the council elections
winning more seats than any other party in results declared so far
The Runcorn by-election was called following the conviction of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury
who was captured on film assaulting a constituent
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