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Your browser is out of date and potentially vulnerable to security risks.We recommend switching to one of the following browsers: Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker Thanks for visiting The use of software that blocks ads hinders our ability to serve you the content you came here to enjoy We ask that you consider turning off your ad blocker so we can deliver you the best experience possible while you are here MASSENA — Work is set to begin on a project that received funding approval from New York Pow… Aluminum producer Alcoa (AA, Financial) announced that its second-quarter orders remain robust the company faces risks from a recent power outage in Spain President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on aluminum imports to boost domestic production noted that while first-quarter orders were strong second-quarter demand continues to hold firm uncertainty among clients about the future has led to less optimism for the latter half of the year Alcoa anticipates a $90 million impact from U.S tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports in the second quarter Oplinger emphasized the importance of allowing Canadian aluminum into the U.S faces a 4 million-ton aluminum shortfall annually as such projects could take 5 to 7 years and cost an estimated $35 billion The recent unexplained power outages in Spain and Portugal pose additional risks to Alcoa's San Ciprian plant which had reduced production due to high electricity costs is in the process of restarting operations We view Alcoa stock as significantly undervalued Alcoa reported a 105% increase in first-quarter 2025 underlying NPAT to $568 million Adjusted EBITDA increased by 26% to $855 million Reduced operating costs more than countered softer alumina production Why it matters: We increased our 2025 earnings per share forecast by 90% to AUD 3.87 following the strong first quarter Alumina costs decreased primarily due to nonrecurrence of inventory writedowns in the fourth quarter There was also a net benefit from lower alumina prices flowing to aluminum The bottom line: Our $42.50 fair value estimate stands We assume a negative five-year EBITDA CAGR of 1.1% to $1.45 billion by 2029 The decline anticipates pullbacks in alumina and aluminum price to $337 per metric ton and $0.83 per pound nominally by 2029 Long view: We don’t expect tariffs on aluminum to remain indefinitely Canadian source aluminum remains the most competitive in the supply chain to the United States The cost to US industry is likely to be too high for tariffs to persist We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks The action you just performed triggered the security solution There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase You can email the site owner to let them know you were blocked Please include what you were doing when this page came up and the Cloudflare Ray ID found at the bottom of this page estimate that newly instituted or ramped-up tariffs on aluminum products will cost the company a net $100 million this year with higher prices for American-made aluminum being more than offset by about $400 million worth of Section 232 tariffs on metal Alcoa produces in Canada and ships to U.S CEO Bill Oplinger and CFO Molly Beerman outlined those factors and others April 16 after Alcoa reported first-quarter earnings of $548 million on sales of nearly $3.4 billion Those numbers included about $20 million of Canadian tariff costs incurred from March 12 through the end of last month Despite the extraordinary noise around tariffs and their potential impact on the world’s trade flows Alcoa’s leaders are sticking to their previous 2025 production and shipment targets for both alumina and aluminum (Beerman said the only adjustment her team is making to 2025 estimates is a $20 million trimming of Alcoa’s depreciation expense due to recent currency exchange rate swings.) Oplinger said customers showed “some supportive signs on the demand” during the first three months of the year but noted that higher North American volumes may have been supported by companies buying in advance of tariffs coming into effect Taking into account those market signals and the general state of play, Oplinger reiterated a point he made nearly two months ago when asked about Alcoa possibly bringing back online idled parts of its Warrick plant in southern Indiana “It’s hard to make a restart decision based on a tariff that can change,” Oplinger told analysts on a conference call “We just don’t know whether they will stick And we wouldn’t necessarily make a decision to restart capacity simply based on tariffs just because they can change.” Oplinger said “the most efficient aluminum supply chain” is shipping product from Canada About 70% of the 4.2 million metric tons of primary aluminum U.S companies imported last year came from north of the border while idled smelting capacity in the United States is only 600,000 metric tons “It takes many years to build a new smelter and at least five to six smelters would be required to address the U.S demand for primary aluminum,” Oplinger said “These new smelters would require additional energy production equivalent to almost seven new nuclear reactors or more than 10 Hoover Dams.” Shares of Alcoa (Ticker: AA) were down about 6% to $23.55 in afternoon trading April 17 a slide that has cut Alcoa’s market capitalization to about $6.1 billion With a degree in journalism from the University of Missouri he began his reporting career at the Business Courier in Cincinnati in 1997 initially covering retail and the courts before shifting to banking He later was managing editor and editor of the Nashville Business Journal before being named editor of the Nashville Post in early 2008 He led a team that helped grow the Post's online traffic more than fivefold before joining Endeavor in September 2021 said President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on metal imports has cost the company $20 million since the duties went into effect The Pittsburgh-based company incurred the costs on imports of aluminum from Canada The disclosure is one of the first indications that US companies are being adversely affected by the Trump administration’s trade war suppliers and logistics companies to avoid supply disruption.” The aluminum producer said throughout the beginning of the year it was actively communicating with administrations, governments and policy makers regarding the impact of tariffs on trade. Chief executive officer Bill Oplinger warned investors in February that Trump’s metal import duties would put about 100,000 US jobs at risk Read More: Bad news for American beer drinkers as aluminum tariffs kick in and website in this browser for the next time I comment Δdocument.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value" Gruyere gold mine joint venture partners Gold Fields and Gold Road Resources reach agreement on a friendly deal to consolidate ownership. The initiative will be delivered through the regional joint venture established by Fleet Space Technologies and Tahreez. The US central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady in this meeting. Romania has major reserves of rare earths, gold and copper, which have attracted interest from Canadian and American firms. a metals producer that many assume would benefit from President Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariff on imported aluminum The company's president and CEO said Tuesday that tariffs on Canadian aluminum would lead to the loss of 20,000 jobs in the sector as well as another 80,000 jobs being lost indirectly Mining & Critical Minerals Conference being held in South Florida Bill Oplinger said that the Trump administration following through with its plan to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum products would be a clear negative for the sector That stance sets him apart from leading steel executives such Nucor Corp.’s Leon Topalian and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.’s Lourenco Goncalves who have said the trade measures would level the global playing field “We’re clearly advocating based on the fact that this is bad for the aluminum industry in the U.S. it's bad for American workers,” Oplinger said “We’re advocating with the administration to Losing 20,000 direct jobs would shrink the U.S. aluminum industry by an eighth: A study released last year by The Aluminum Association said producers directly employ 164,000 workers—a number that had fallen only slightly since 2013 The estimated indirect job losses of 80,000 would amount to a roughly similar share of the nearly 700,000 jobs the study said are supported by the aluminum sector Oplinger said the Alcoa team’s estimate of job losses is based on a 25% rate for Canadian products of which Alcoa ships roughly 700,000 tonnes annually to the United States (While the planned tariffs would also apply to Mexican steel and aluminum Oplinger noted that Canadian imports are far larger.) But he added that Alcoa’s leaders also expect that a planned 10% tariff on energy and critical minerals would also apply to their products Oplinger said—as he did on Alcoa’s quarterly earnings conference call last month—that the repercussions also could skew global flows of aluminum and raise prices Tariffs would lead companies to ship Canadian product to Europe while Asian producers could be incentivized to ship finished aluminum good and components to the United States—creating the rather absurd prospect of ships carrying the same product passing each other somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean Asked by BMO analyst Katja Jancic if Alcoa would restart idled capacity in the United States should the tariffs last longer than most observers are predicting today His team would “run the sums” on bringing back some “very old very inefficient capacity” at its Warrick plant in Indiana but added that another factor is far more important than tariffs in deciding about future projects “We would not be making investment in the United States based on a tariff structure that could be in place for a shorter—a much shorter period of time,” he said “If we were to be able to find cheap then we would actually consider an investment in the U.S But it has to be energy for a very long period of time.” Shares of Alcoa (Ticker: AA) fell nearly 2% to $34.37 on Feb They are essentially flat over the past six months leaving the company’s market capitalization at nearly $9 billion ShareSaveCommentMoneyMarketsBeware Of Alcoa At $25ByTrefis Team Alcoa has recently encountered strong headwinds with its stock dropping sharply by 32% so far this year historical patterns suggest such volatility isn't unusual for the aluminum giant A look at past market downturns shows that this is not unfamiliar territory for Alcoa Alcoa's core business fundamentals reflect a more encouraging picture: Alcoa shares are currently priced at 0.7x trailing revenues—below the 3.2x average for the S&P 500 and under its own 3-year average P/S ratio of 3.8x a company with a $6 billion market cap producing $0.6 billion in cash flow equates to a 10% yield Alcoa’s long-term value proposition becomes particularly attractive Alcoa has endured many downturns in the past and has often emerged stronger the company remains promising due to its mix of industrial strength and focus on sustainability which has consistently outperformed its all-cap stock benchmark (a blend of S&P 500 speaking with a financial advisor experienced in volatile markets could also be worthwhile significant wealth can be built by those who remain calm and strategic during turbulent times Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth Posted by | Apr 23, 2025 | | 0 5StarPreps shared how the Alcoa Lady Tornadoes’ challenging non-district schedule is preparing them for a run for a softball state championship After losing to the defending state champions Gibbs Lady Eagles in March the Lady Tornadoes earned a sweet victory last Wednesday afternoon by beating visiting Gibbs 5-4 Alcoa has beaten Class 4A powers Halls (twice) and has a victory over Class 3A power Heritage The end of season state tournaments are listed below for all spring sports KnoxTNToday along with several partners sponsor a quarterly Hero Kid Award. 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Share via...Gift this articleSubscribe to gift this article Gift 5 articles to anyone you choose each month when you subscribe Alcoa chief executive Bill Oplinger says there is no plan to shut Victoria’s Portland aluminium smelter within the next decade but warns batteries are unlikely to be the “firming” solution that solves the smelter’s increasing reliance on variable energy sources such as wind and solar Oplinger said Australia needed to decide how it would backstop intermittent renewables adding that Alcoa would be a big user of gas for a long time to come and that nuclear power could also support wind and solar SaveLog in or Subscribe to save articleShareCopy link Gift 5 articles to anyone you choose each month when you subscribe. Follow the topics, people and companies that matter to you. Alcoa (NYSE:AA) has faced significant headwinds recently with the stock experiencing a dramatic 32% decline this year historical context suggests this volatility isn’t unprecedented for the metals giant Looking back at previous market downturns reveals this isn’t uncharted territory for Alocoa Despite the market’s current pessimism Alcoa’s underlying business fundamentals tell a more optimistic story: Alcoa stock currently trades at 0.7x trailing revenues aligning with 3.2x for the broader S&P500 index and below its last-three year average P/S ratio of 3.8x investors should consider that a company with a $6 billion market cap generating $0.6 billion in cash flow represents a 10% yield – significantly higher than most bank offerings the long-term value proposition becomes even more compelling The metal company has weathered severe storms before and emerged stronger While the immediate outlook remains challenging Alcoa is promising because it blends legacy industrial strength with a future-forward focus on sustainability which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors or consulting a financial advisor with experience in bear markets could be beneficial significant wealth can be generated in the market by those who maintain a calm and strategic approach during periods of volatility View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250317165644/en/ Already have an account? Login EURUSDAlcoa reported on Thursday that its second-quarter order book remains strong and has not yet been affected by US tariffs.  The aluminium producer also noted that the recent power outage in Spain presents potential risks to its operations in that country. In an effort to bolster domestic aluminum production, US President Donald Trump, since assuming office, has implemented a uniform 25% tariff on all aluminum imports, stating there would be “without exceptions or exemptions.” “Our first quarter order book was strong. Our second quarter order book remains strong. So we have yet to see a fall off in orders associated with the tariffs,” CEO William Oplinger was quoted as saying in a Reuters report. When we’re talking to our customers, they’re uncertain about the future. So we just don’t have good insight much past the first half now. During its first-quarter earnings call last month, Alcoa stated that it anticipates US tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports will cost the company approximately $90 million in the second quarter. Alcoa’s Oplinger stated the company supports Trump’s goal of a competitive US manufacturing sector, adding that ensuring Canadian aluminum can enter the United States is the optimal way to realise this vision. The US faces a substantial annual deficit of approximately four million tonnes of aluminum, he added.  This shortfall is compounded by the absence of economically viable domestic deposits of bauxite, the primary raw material necessary for aluminum production.  Consequently, the US is heavily reliant on imports to meet its aluminum demand, creating potential vulnerabilities in its supply chain.  This dependence on foreign sources for a critical industrial metal has implications for various sectors, including manufacturing, construction, and transportation, and raises concerns about national security and economic competitiveness.  Securing a stable and reliable supply of aluminum is therefore a significant strategic challenge for the country. Alcoa currently has no plans to construct any smelters in the United States, a process that generally requires 5 to 7 years. It would take seven new US aluminium smelters to produce the 4 million tonnes, costing an estimated $35 billion, Oplinger said.  Alcoa, the largest aluminium producer in the U.S., has a market value of $6.5 billion, he pointed out. “So this concept of creating manufacturing in the near term is simply not going to happen in primary aluminum.” Power outage in Spain and operational risks The recent, still-unexplained power outage affecting Spain and Portugal has increased the potential risks for Alcoa’s San Ciprián aluminium complex in Spain, according to Oplinger. He stated that they currently lack an explanation for the energy situation in Spain and anticipate needing several days to assess the potential risks of additional power outages. If the grid doesn’t understand what happened, it is very difficult to have an electro-intensive business in a place that can’t guarantee that the electricity will stay on. Alcoa is currently reviewing the damage at its plant. According to Oplinger, the facility’s smelter was in the process of restarting and was 8-10% complete. Due to elevated power costs in 2021, plant production was reduced. Restart efforts are underway, with a complete production increase anticipated by October. Copyright © 2025 FactSet Research Systems Inc.© 2025 TradingView