Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker Andrew Harnik / GettyMay 5, 2025, 12:01 PM ET ShareSave Listen-1.0x+0:009:32Produced by ElevenLabs and News Over Audio (Noa) using AI narration Republicans in Congress could soon make things much worse. GOP leaders are struggling to reconcile deep divisions as they try to pass Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill,” which encompasses the bulk of his domestic agenda The plan revolves around his 2017 tax cuts; Republicans want to permanently extend them before they expire at the end of the year but they can’t agree on how to cover the more than $5 trillion price tag—or whether to cover it at all is a bill that adds trillions to federal deficits which could cause an already shaky economy to collapse The GOP stands virtually no chance of stabilizing the nation’s finances the Republican economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin told me is “how much worse will it be when they’re done?” fiscal hawks have warned that America’s ever-increasing debt (now more than $36 trillion) will provoke a crisis: Markets will crater and interest rates will spike Even as both parties have run up the nation’s tab these doomsday predictions haven’t come true leading to an unspoken bipartisan understanding that growing the deficit would never really wreck the economy But Trump’s proposals could shatter that assumption Read: Congressional Republicans might set off the debt bomb Enacting Trump’s agenda would probably be a “corrosive event” rather than an immediate disaster but “there is a reasonable probability that we go over the cliff.” Trump’s aggressive tariffs already prompted a steep sell-off in the bond markets which analysts monitor for signs that global investors are losing confidence in the U.S In addition to making his first-term tax cuts permanent, Trump wants Congress to eliminate a suite of taxes—on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits—while adding hundreds of billions in new spending to secure the southern border and bolster the military. As the fiscal analyst Jessica Reidl observed last month in The Atlantic add more to federal deficits than the four costliest bills signed by Trump (during his first term) and former President Joe Biden combined A more fiscally responsible approach would offset Trump’s tax cuts with spending reductions and revenue increases elsewhere Both House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune have said Republicans want to cut as much as $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade But most analysts doubt they’ll be able to trim nearly that much Tax hikes are anathema to most Republicans and a push by conservatives for deep spending has met resistance from moderate and electorally vulnerable GOP lawmakers Even if Republicans manage to slash $1.5 trillion they would cover only a fraction of the price of extending the Trump tax cuts The party claims that lower taxes will generate more revenue through economic growth and the president says his tariffs can make up the rest of the cost who advised the late Senator John McCain and now heads the center-right think tank American Action Forum told me the tariffs won’t generate anywhere close to enough money “The administration is completely incoherent on this stuff,” Holtz-Eakin said the GOP will pay for no more than a small slice of the tax cuts The party didn’t offset the ones it enacted under President George W or the ones passed during Trump’s first term Republicans are unwilling even to acknowledge the cost of the cuts; through dubious accounting they adopted a budget that hides the fact that an extension would increase the deficit at all taxes will automatically go up for nearly all Americans next year which Holtz-Eakin described as the worst-case scenario If the economy isn’t already in a recession by that point and Democrats have already begun attacking Republicans over the plans In theory, one of the easiest moves available to Republicans is to repeal spending that none of them voted for in the first place. In 2022, Democrats enacted hundreds of billions of dollars in clean-energy tax credits under Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. No Republican supported the bill, but some are now fighting to protect the funding because much of it went to their districts “Those are probably the low-hanging fruit,” Holtz-Eakin said of scrapping the tax credits he added: “some people can’t even harvest low-hanging fruit.” Congress needs to increase the nation’s debt limit—likely by this summer—to avoid a first-ever default GOP leaders want to include the measure in Trump’s big but many House conservatives have never voted to lift the ceiling and are reluctant to start now could spook the markets and force Republicans to turn to Democrats for help—an unattractive option because Democrats would likely seek policy concessions in exchange for their votes Read: A win—and a warning—for Trump’s agenda Republicans offset some of the Trump tax cuts by capping the amount of state and local taxes that people could deduct from their federal bill Limiting this deduction—known as SALT—disproportionately affected high-tax blue states such as New York and California and Republicans who represent those areas are demanding relief Lawmakers including Representative Mike Lawler of New York have said they will oppose any tax bill that does not lift the SALT cap But raising the ceiling would add hundreds of billions to the cost of a bill that Republicans aren’t even close to being able to foot President Donald Trump's said that the economy would be “okay” in the long-term if there were to be a short-term recession CNN Chief White House Correspondent Kaitlan Collins gives an inside look on the grounds of the White House for the week of President Trump's first 100 days of his second term '+n.escapeExpression("function"==typeof(o=null!=(o=r(e,"eyebrowText")||(null!=l?r(l,"eyebrowText"):l))?o:n.hooks.helperMissing)?o.call(null!=l?l:n.nullContext||{},{name:"eyebrowText",hash:{},data:t,loc:{start:{line:28,column:63},end:{line:28,column:78}}}):o)+" \n '+(null!=(o=c(e,"if").call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2PreText"):l,{name:"if",hash:{},fn:n.program(32,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:63,column:20},end:{line:63,column:61}}}))?o:"")+"\n"+(null!=(o=(c(e,"ifAll")||l&&c(l,"ifAll")||n.hooks.helperMissing).call(r,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Text"):l,null!=l?c(l,"cta2Link"):l,{name:"ifAll",hash:{},fn:n.program(34,t,0),inverse:n.noop,data:t,loc:{start:{line:64,column:20},end:{line:70,column:30}}}))?o:"")+" — Three months into President Donald Trump’s second term economic conditions to him rather than to his predecessor Joe Biden while a considerable portion thinks responsibility is still shared between the two Nearly half of Americans surveyed April 2-15 say Trump is the more responsible of the two presidents for the current state of the U.S 21% indicate that both are equally responsible These results are nearly identical to what Gallup recorded in March Adding the “both” response to each president’s figure results in 67% of Americans in April thinking Trump bears substantial responsibility for the economy and 48% thinking the same of Biden Gallup has tracked these attitudes by web in March and April using its probability-based panel half of respondents were given four options for who bears the most responsibility for the economy — Trump The other half were offered only the choice of Trump or Biden 66% of Americans say Trump is the more responsible of the two nearly identical to the total percentage saying he is solely or partially responsible in the four-part question The remaining third say Biden is responsible Whether saying Trump is responsible for today’s economy is a criticism or compliment depends on one’s view of the economy Americans who rate the economy as either excellent or good are split between assigning responsibility to Biden (37%) those saying economic conditions are poor mostly assign responsibility to Trump (66%) Just 14% of this group attributes them solely to Biden Democrats' assigning of responsibility for the economy to Trump, which 75% do, is clearly a criticism, as most Democrats describe the current state of the economy in negative terms Republicans have a more mixed assessment of present economic conditions but they are also more than twice as likely to attribute conditions exclusively to Biden than to Trump (55% vs 91% of Democrats say Trump is mostly or equally responsible for the state of the economy the figures are 40% for Trump and 74% for Biden Given Trump’s assertive efforts and plans to remake the economy through a combination of tariff hikes along with Wall Street's negative reaction in early April to his policies and implementation of them it’s not surprising that many Americans perceive that the current economy already reflects Trump’s presidency more than Biden’s who are deeply concerned about the economy have already reached a consensus that it’s now Trump’s economy Republicans aren't likely to perceive that economic conditions are the result of Trump's rather than Biden's management until they are more convinced that the economy is doing well Trump's recent comments tying negative first-quarter economic growth to Biden — and his suggestion that possible negative second-quarter growth would also be Biden's responsibility — are likely to ensure current Republican beliefs about economic ownership persist To stay up to date with the latest Gallup News insights and updates, follow us on X @Gallup Learn more about how the Gallup Panel works Results for this Gallup poll are based on self-administered web surveys conducted April 2-15 random sampling methods to recruit its Panel members Results to the four-response-option question about who is more responsible for the economy are based on interviews with 1,023 national adults and have a margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level Gallup weighted the obtained samples to correct for nonresponse Nonresponse adjustments were made by adjusting the sample to match national demographics of gender Demographic weighting targets were based on the most recent Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S Party affiliation weighting targets are based on an average of the three most recent Gallup telephone polls question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls Subscribe to the Front Page newsletter for weekly insights on the world's most pressing topics Most Americans expect their country's new tariffs to result in higher prices in the U.S with about half believing that job gains will result Gallup data reveal a growing housing affordability crisis in wealthy countries that affects not just economies and politics Americans are pessimistic about economic growth and the stock market with a majority now expecting their personal finances to worsen Fewer Americans than in 2023 and 2024 name inflation as the most important financial problem facing their family Uncertainty generated by tariff policy underlines US president seemingly unable to choose a path and stick to it Ten days reporting from the US – in Pittsburgh and just across the Potomac River in Arlington Virginia – gave me a fascinating snapshot of what feels like the slow-motion unravelling of the world’s largest economy So many conversations featured uncertainty and wariness; and weariness as businesses and consumers weigh up every decision against the backdrop of the chaos emanating from the White House Even the president conceded last week that the economy was in a “transition period”, claiming he had warned of this during his campaign. (When challenged, the White House could not come up with any examples of when he had done so.) Read moreThe problem for Trump and his supporters is that the transition period in question is starting to resemble that felt by the classic Looney Tunes character Wile E Coyote between charging off a cliff into midair and plunging to the ground So far, the hard data from the US economy is holding up well. Friday’s payrolls report was strong, and the negative first quarter gross domestic product reading was hard to take a clear reading from because of the rise in imports as companies stocked up ahead of tariffs There is little sign of anything as dramatic as mass job cuts or a sudden stop in consumer spending – although the recent crop of data mainly relates to the period before “liberation day” Look at the forward-looking surveys, though, and there are clear signs of anxiety. The long-running Michigan consumer sentiment index just had its steepest quarterly decline since the 1990 recession Spend any amount of time talking to US consumers and businesses and it is abundantly clear why: there are so many sources of policy ambiguity as to make the future not just uncertain but completely unknowable There is a cliche that “markets hate uncertainty” but in truth the same applies to everyone in the real economy too: the company wondering what size order to put in and how many people to hire and the family thinking about buying that fridge or booking that holiday can say with any confidence what the tariff rates on imports from specific countries will be in July Even if the tariff policy was crystal clear its impact on prices would be hard to gauge – depending on how much of the cost companies are willing to bear (or “eat” as the Americans have it) at the expense of reduced profits For the moment, as the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has admitted, the tariffs on China, at 145%, are now so high as to amount to an effective trade embargo many will be scrambling to find substitutes which may be more expensive or not exist at all Shortages of some products seem a distinct possibility including Robert F Kennedy Jr’s decimation of the National Institutes of Health are raising short-term questions about unemployment and much longer-term worries about the US’s world-leading science base Some of the most heartbreaking conversations I had were about aspects of Trump’s immigration policy: the man who said a Guatemalan friend’s six-year-old son had stopped going to school in case his mum was snatched by the authorities while he was there and the restaurant manager who said it was becoming harder to hire Latinos because even fully documented workers feared they could face deportation anyway Free daily newsletterGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning These are first and foremost human tragedies, but clearly they also have an economic dimension. The credit rating agency Fitch warned in a report last week: “Risks associated with mass deportations could include potential worker shortages production delays and increased wage inflation that hinders revenue growth weakens profitability and lowers return on investment.” because the US economy’s abrupt gearshift has been driven by deliberate policy actions it’s tempting to think: “It doesn’t have to be like this.” Much more of the real economy impact so far results from this widely shared uncertainty – or perhaps it is better to call it fear – than from the specifics of Trump’s policies Business owners told me that if they just knew what the final tariffs on products from the various countries in their supply chain would be It is not completely out of the question that a more settled policy position could arrive in the coming weeks Bessent appears to be trying to manoeuvre Trump towards striking a series of “deals” (in effect promises of concessions in exchange for tariff carve-outs) with key economies Yet the president appears to have such a love of political drama – and such an inability to choose a course and stick to it – that the unknowability of future policy seems to be the very essence of Trump 2.0 that checked Trump’s initial “liberation day” drive But if time drags on with no agreements in sight the next wave of distress signals are likely to come not from Wall Street but from main street – in soaring prices and empty shelves either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content Americans have given their view on whether President Donald Trump inherited a weakened economy from his predecessor or if the current difficulties are the result of his own policies According to a new poll by Gallup, nearly half Americans (46 percent) view Trump as more responsible for the current state of the economy, compared to 27 percent who chose Joe Biden One-in-five (21 percent) said that responsibility was equally shared between both the former and current president Results of the Gallup poll were based on surveys of 2,036 American adults The results closely mirror Gallup's March poll in which 43 percent said President Trump bore responsibility for the economy and 27 percent chose Biden attributing responsibility can be either an endorsement or a criticism of either figure depending on how one views the current state of the economy and the pollster found pronounced splits on this issue along party lines Overall, 91 percent of Democrats believe Trump is primarily or equally to blame for the current state of the economy, compared to 20 percent who say the same of Biden. Among Republicans 40 percent attribute responsibility to Trump Among Americans who consider the economy in good shape—either excellent or good—37 percent and 34 percent assign responsibility to Biden and Trump most of those who believe the economic conditions are bad say it is Trump's fault (66 percent) only 14 percent of this group blaming Biden Trump attempted to avoid blame for the Commerce Department's GDP reading—which revealed a 0.3 percent year-on-year contraction—as well as the continued volatility in the U.S "This is Biden's Stock Market not Trump's," the president posted to Truth Social on Wednesday The post continued: "Tariffs will soon start kicking in and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers but we have to get rid of the Biden "Overhang." This will take a while In an interview with NBC News' Meet the Press on Sunday when asked what level of responsibility he bears for the economy Trump said: "I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy." In March, responding to fears that the U.S. economy may soon dip into a recession White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated the president's sentiment that the U.S economy was in "a period of transition from the mess that was created under Joe Biden." following a better-than-expected jobs reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early April Leavitt held this as evidence that "the economy is starting to roar." economy will become solely his responsibility I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he did a terrible job on everything I take responsibility for everything," he added "But I've only just been here for a little more than three months." Thomas Sampson, Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at London School of Economics, previously told Newsweek: "The GDP estimates are clearly a cause for concern and show that President Donald Trump's trade policy is already hitting the U.S economy could be boosted by a trade deal being struck with China which the administration claims is imminent despite Beijing's noncommittal stance However, the majority of Americans are still fearful about the possibility of a recession. According to a recent CNN poll 69 percent of Americans believe this is likely to occur within the year including 32 percent who consider the possibility very likely Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground Newsweek is committed to journalism that's factual and fair Hold us accountable and submit your rating of this article on the meter. Newsletters in your inbox See all Let's face it, flying in economy sucks — especially on a long-haul flight But choosing the right seat can make things way more comfortable Paying a few extra bucks can be the difference between stretching out into the aisle versus squeezing into a middle seat wondering how to wake up a neighbor when you need the bathroom Shelling out more for an exit row or bulkhead seat is practically a necessity for some taller people However, it's rare that one seat can feel like a new level of luxury. I found that to be the case on the upper deck of an Airbus A380 Some airlines fill the top floor with business- and first-class seats, but others, like British Airways to choose a seat up there on a flight a few months ago — but prices vary This seat not only gives you more space but also an extra storage locker not to mention one less neighbor on your row Here's what my experience was like and why I recommend this handy travel tip Flying from London usually takes between seven and eight hours It's faster in the opposite direction thanks to the North Atlantic jet stream you're looking for any window seat on the upper deck This seat map also shows how the cabin is arranged in a 2-4-2 format, like premium economy which provides access to around 1,700 airport lounges worldwide but it was certainly easier to relax there than in the concourse four-engined jet typically has room for more than 500 passengers only half have economy seats on the upper deck You're more likely to find rows of two economy seats on regional planes like an Airbus A220 or a Bombardier CRJ It was much easier to only have to ask one person instead of two when I needed to get up I found this especially useful for a long-haul flight where it can be difficult to find a place for amenities like a blanket and headphones when you're not using them But the best part was that I could fit my small backpack in there instead of under the seat in front, leaving more space to stretch my legs The A380's cabin is over 21 feet wide — that's two feet more than a Boeing 777 there was plenty of space on the window side of my seat so the silver in-flight entertainment box wasn't an obstacle This wasn't as ideal as stretching both legs but you'd only get that by forking out thousands of dollars more for business class I was offered pretzels and two drinks at the start of the cabin service Count me as a fan of British Airways' own beer I actually preferred the in-flight dinner, a chicken tikka masala, to the curry I had in premium economy on my return flight but it was a noticeable benefit of the upper deck being further away from the engines Asiana Airlines, British Airways, Lufthansa, Qantas, and Qatar Airways have economy seats on the upper deck of their Airbus A380s British Airways flies it to six American destinations and Singapore Airlines also operate the superjumbo jet, but they don't have any economy seats upstairs Log in to comment on videos and join in on the fun Watch the live stream of Fox News and full episodes Reduce eye strain and focus on the content that matters The US president is blaming ‘Biden’s economy’ there is one key cause of the poor showing – and it’s not his predecessor That of course is when Trump returned to the White House, but Trump, true to form, denied that he was in any way responsible for the surprisingly bad economic news. Trump, who has spent his life blaming others and refusing to admit mistakes, was quick to blame Joe Biden for the downturn The nation’s gross domestic product declined at a 0.3% annual rate in the quarter Even the very careful New York Times said that Trump was full of it. The Times wrote that Trump “blamed his predecessor for handing him a bad economy despite data showing that growth was strong when he took office” When Biden left office, many economists had glowing words about the economy. “President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets,” said Mark Zandi “The US economy is the envy of the rest of the world as it is the only significant economy that is growing more quickly post-pandemic than pre-pandemic.” he brazenly insisted that Moran accept Trump’s falsehood about Ábrego García telling him: “Why don’t you just say: ‘Yes he does’” have MS-13 tattooed on his knuckles It’s as delusional for Trump to claim that “we inherited from the last administration an economic catastrophe” as he did in a speech to a joint session of Congress in March as it is for him to insist that Ábrego García’s knuckles say “MS-13” When Biden’s term ended, the jobless rate was a low 4.0%. Not only that, during Biden’s four years, the average unemployment rate was lower than for any president since the 1960s Trump won over many voters by attacking high inflation under Biden – and it was a serious problem – but by the time Biden left office far below its 9% peak in 2022 and nearly down to the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal As part of his economic disinformation efforts Trump has repeatedly said that job growth was a disaster under Biden The fact is that during Biden’s four years more than during any four-year term of any previous president making his first-term presidency the first presidency since Herbert Hoover’s to suffer an overall loss in jobs The pandemic was largely responsible for that.) As part of his never-ending effort to dodge responsibility, Trump blamed Biden for the stock market’s recent troubles. During Trump’s first 100 days, the S&P 500 fell 7%, making it the market’s worst beginning to a presidential term since Gerald Ford took office in 1974 after Richard Nixon resigned due to the Watergate scandal Devious as ever, Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday: “This is Biden’s Stock Market I didn’t take over until January 20th.” What Trump failed to say was that the stock market didn’t begin to plunge until 2 April That was more than two months after Biden left office – so it’s absurd for Trump to blame him for that decline And don’t expect Trump to ever acknowledge that Wall Street soared during Biden’s four years The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 39% and the S&P 500 soared by 55.7% who was chair of the council of economic advisers under Biden said on MSNBC on Thursday that it was ludicrous for Trump to blame Biden for the first-quarter downturn “I have never seen a more direct connection to what we’re seeing in the economy and stock market to the action of one person which is to President Trump and his trade war,” Bernstein said Many economists warn that the US economy may sink further in the second quarter due to Trump’s tariffs as some supply chains break down prices rise on many goods and many consumers and business pull back on spending due to all the uncertainty and anxiety John Kasich, a Republican and former governor of Ohio, sneered at Trump’s efforts to weasel out of responsibility. “You can’t blame Biden,” he said “It’s like saying the dog ate my homework.” Steven Greenhouse is a journalist and author focusing on labor and the workplace Progressive economist Gerald Epstein says global capitalists may no longer see the US as a “safe haven” under Trump Polychroniou: Trump’s erratic reciprocal tariffs represent an unprecedented shift in U.S trade policy and are having dramatic impacts on both the U.S dollar has also experienced a sharp decline due to the Trump administration’s tariffs chaos And isn’t this bad news for the average U.S consumer and a slam for the working-class voters that support Trump Gerald Epstein: Trump’s tariffs are creating havoc in the world economy and for U.S Part of the problem lies in the nature of the tariffs themselves and part of it results from the huge uncertainty generated by the on-again-off-again from John Maynard Keynes to Milton Friedman have argued that for capitalism (and capitalists) to prosper The main reason is that long-term investment drives the economy Mainstream economists extol the economic importance of consumers but we have known from at least the time of Marx that it is investment (what Marx called “accumulation of capital”) that underpins the system But since most useful investment is relatively long lasting and requires significant upfront expenses capitalists are reluctant to make such commitments when uncertainty is through the roof The result is not only a likely reduction in investment in plants a reduction in demand and employment spread throughout the economy Then there is the structure of the tariffs themselves Here there are at least two issues of relevance to the impact on the economy indeed prohibitive level of tariffs on China in combination with high tariffs on Canada and Mexico these countries account for more than one-third of U.S so the tariffs are obviously extremely disruptive to their economies and ours tariffs did not distinguish between imports of final goods and imports of parts and other intermediate products If Trump wants to reshore manufacturing production and jobs he is making that goal more difficult by slapping tariffs on products that these firms will have to use to produce their newly onshored final goods like cars these policies are tanking expected corporate profits in the U.S. workers and slashing plans for corporate investment This is one main reason why the value of the dollar is going down and shows a direct connection between Trump’s tariffs and the dollar But there is a further reason why the dollar is falling And this relates to a possible disruption of the trust by global capitalists in the United States as a “safe haven” in times of trouble and turmoil Trump has gone to war with the U.S. Federal Reserve and would have liked to be able to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates what’s the connection between Trump’s trade deals and the Fed why is the Fed holding interest rates steady The Trump administration either wants to completely control international organizations for its own purposes or wants to destroy them Trump’s bumbling tariff war creates big problems for the Fed: The war creates pressures for both inflation and recession prices of goods will go up: That will drive up inflation at least temporarily This immobilizes the Fed because it has no good policy option: Increasing interest rates could fight inflation but will make recession worse; lowering interest rates would cushion the recession but could increase inflation by keeping demand high the Fed is just holding steady until events become clearer Part of the reason they are selling bonds is because they are worried about higher inflation which makes these bonds less valuable in real terms But another reason — and the one that really got investors and economists’ attention — is the concern that they are selling off bonds because of a loss of confidence in the U.S dollar as a “safe haven” in a turbulent world dollar lose global reserve currency status on account of Trump’s tariff war how could this impact the international monetary system as well as the direction of the U.S dollar is unlikely to completely lose its global reserve currency status now Much of the rest of the world already has a lot of business of various kinds connected to the dollar: their foreign exchange reserve holding; the financial trades they make with derivatives and other financial instruments; their offshore financial activity — for example financial institutions but nonetheless is denominated in dollars; and so on And the second reason is the lack of a clear better alternative that could completely take over for the dollar The two rivals are the European Union (EU) and China But Europe is not only decentralized and lacks a unified economic and military strategy but it is also being undermined by the same forces that Trump is unleashing — economic uncertainty and an emboldened Russia it is still perceived as “lawless” and as a potential enemy of the global capital class dollar is unlikely to completely lose its status in the coming period does not mean that the dollar’s role won’t significantly decline in some areas especially in the case of the official role of reserve holdings and in trade within a growing Chinese economic bloc in Asia and inside the EU An interesting question is whether this likely decline will negatively impact the United States and affect the operations of the global financial system Economists debate the issue of whether the dollar’s global role provides the U.S with an “exorbitant privilege,” to use the derogatory term used by the French and others The idea is that the dollar’s role allows U.S to borrow more extensively and more cheaply from the rest of the world than they would be able to otherwise can run “deficits without tears.” This is also tied to the idea that the U.S and its dollar are seen as “safe havens” when global turmoil erupts government interest rates went up in the wake of the recent market tariff kerfuffle many commentators suggested that the dollar’s safe haven “exorbitant privilege” was at risk: that Trump was wrecking a valuable U.S I believe that this privilege is real and important even though it has often been difficult to assess because it has been so secure Now we are witnessing a “natural experiment” in the disruptions caused by Trump and his trade adviser Will the rest of the world be able to benefit from this loss of “privilege?” If chaos ensues as a result in the short-to-medium run then they might be able to benefit and capture some of this privilege The best thing would be for the international community to issue more international “currencies,” such as the special drawing rights issued by the IMF and transition to a more global currency that could spread these privileges around But this is unlikely to happen as long as the U.S is around to block these institutions from stepping out on their own out of the Paris Agreement and withdrew it from the World Health Organization But there are also concerns that he will kill the Bretton Woods System by withdrawing the U.S from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank This question leads us to the role of the United States in international organizations It seems pretty clear that the Trump administration either wants to completely control international organizations for its own purposes or wants to destroy them This seems like the approach it will take with respect to the IMF and the World Bank Since these are such big and powerful institutions the Trump administration will first try to control them and manipulate them so as to pursue its own agenda of slashing investments in preventing and adapting to climate change slashing programs to help support women economically The only thing possibly forcing Trump to keep the U.S in these organizations is the fear that China might take them over countries in the rest of the world will have to make one of the following choices: (a) give in to Trump’s destructive demands; (b) align with China and wrest control of these institutions that way or (c) develop a truly third way to control these institutions themselves I am not knowledgeable enough about this situation to be able to predict an outcome resisting Trump and Trumpism should be the first order of business we are witnessing a terrifying array of anti-democratic tactics to silence political opposition increase surveillance and expand authoritarian reach Truthout is appealing for your support as Trump and his sycophants crack down on political speech Nonprofits like Truthout could be caught in Trump’s crosshairs as he attacks dissenting groups with bad faith lawsuits and targeted harassment of journalists these attacks come at a time when independent journalism is most needed The right-wing corporate takeover of media has left reliable outlets few and far between with even fewer providing their work at no cost to the reader Who will be there to hold the fascists to account We ask for your support as we doggedly pursue justice through our reporting Truthout is funded overwhelmingly by readers like you Please make a tax-deductible one-time or monthly donation today As Trump and his sycophants work to silence political dissent, independent media is a key part of the resistance. Support our work by making a one-time or monthly donation to Truthout today. Illustration by The Atlantic. Source: Getty.May 5, 2025, 7 AM ET ShareSave Listen-1.0x+0:006:28Produced by ElevenLabs and News Over Audio (Noa) using AI narration taking care of our old dogs and infant son The economy was great; the health system stable; the novel coronavirus an ocean away I’d take him to a 24-hour grocery store or pharmacy and stock up on paper towels I started listening to the evening news while making dinner and subscribing to doctors’ social-media feeds even if I did not know what I was preparing for A tariff-induced recession is here and not here visible and invisible—about to happen or already happening even if we are not sure what we are preparing for Annie Lowrey: Here are the places where the recession has already begun But companies rushed to buy big-ticket items before “Liberation Day,” on April 2 filling up warehouses and locking in input prices The jump in investment and inventories pushed up GDP by nearly four percentage points; the surge in imports pulled it down by five percentage points Partisans of President Donald Trump cheered the report. “When you strip out inventories and the negative effects of the surge in imports because of the tariffs, you have 3 percent growth,” the trade adviser Peter Navarro said on CNBC “That’s the best negative print I have ever seen in my life.” Maybe Navarro believes that but there was nothing great happening in the first quarter The yet-to-be-announced tariffs distorted business practices affecting hundreds of billions of dollars of output They did not improve the underlying economy Read: What would be worse than a recession? A supply shock is beginning to ripple across the nation consumers worried about looming shortages and rising inflation are likely to make panic orders and hoard household goods Businesses worried about empty shelves are likely to restrict purchases Even Americans who pay little attention to the news will notice their neighbors stocking up Companies are likely to capitalize on the chaos hiking prices even if they are unaffected by tariffs though I am not sure what goods will end up affected As inflation climbs, the economy is going to slow down. The Trump administration and Republican Congress are seeking to slash government spending businesses will decline to hire new workers; existing employees will cling to their jobs That alone will be enough to push up the unemployment rate Perhaps by the time the economy is in a formal recession the Trump administration will have signed a few trade deals supply chains take years to repair once disrupted Inflation tends to take a long time to return to normal once elevated Whatever is happening will be less deadly than a pandemic it is a polycrisis: globe-encompassing and hard to understand I might pick up some dog food and ibuprofen this weekend Growth in the first three months was challenged by Trump’s overhaul plans and execution of his tariffs created widespread confusion and uncertainty Donald Trump promised to usher in a new “golden age” for the US economy – one with lower prices Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank for the first time in three years during the first quarter abruptly turning negative after a spell of robust growth as trade distortions and weaker consumer spending dampened activity It took the US president all of 43 minutes to distance himself from the dismal reading but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang’,” Trump wrote on Truth Social any bad numbers are the fault of Joe Biden – but this attribution does not extend to the good ones March’s strong jobs report demonstrated how “the private sector is roaring back under President Donald J according to a statement issued by the White House “IT’S ALREADY WORKING,” the president declared the day it was published But April’s less buoyant jobs report, released on Friday Is the “golden age” of America well under way And the first quarter figures raised troubling questions about the second. Activity weakened largely as firms braced for the lion’s share of Trump’s tariffs, which he only unveiled in early April. How those firms, and their customers, ultimately respond to those tariffs – and the confusion around them – is widely expected to have a greater impact on growth Trump’s erratic rollout of 10% tariffs on goods from much of the world “have altered the picture dramatically” since the end of the first quarter senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics “Any support to spending from pre-tariff purchases will unwind soon now that substantial new tariffs have been imposed “Consumers’ spending will also be weighed down by a hit to confidence and real incomes from higher prices while intense uncertainty will put the freeze on business investment and exports – especially to China – will suffer.” It is too soon to say whether tariffs, which the administration insists will revitalize the US economy set the stage for a recession: two consecutive quarters of contraction the landscape shifts rapidly from one day to the next to a point: most of his tariffs are not to blame for the stunning reversal of growth in the first quarter The US only hiked duties on China and imposed its blanket 10% levy on many other countries last month The foundations of a potential Trumpcession were not laid in the early months of the year by the tariffs themselves but by his administration’s execution of them has coined an interesting term for this playbook of threats “President Trump creates what I would call ‘strategic uncertainty’ in the negotiations,” he told a press briefing on Tuesday But certainty is not necessarily a good thing in negotiating.” However useful Trump and his officials find “strategic uncertainty” during trade negotiations, it has different consequences for those paying bills they were repeatedly assured would swiftly fall trying to grow a business in a market with leaders locked in a war of words with the White House or planting a crop without knowing what the economic realities will be by the harvest Trump returned to office after winning the backing of rural and lower-income voters in significant numbers last November He needs to preserve his base if Republicans are to maintain power in Washington during his second term Polling suggests these groups are concerned. A PBS News/NPR/Marist survey, published this week found 48% of rural voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy The same was true for 57% of voters with a household income of less than $50,000 the US president has sought to play down the risks In one of the more peculiar moments in another bizarre week he appeared to play down the threat of empty store shelves maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls y’know,” Trump said during a cabinet meeting on Wednesday “And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.” China has “ships that are loaded up with stuff It is typically up to the American consumer, not their president, to decide what they do and don’t need to buy. For a man whose fortune and image are built around conspicuous consumption, the comments seemed very off-brand. “Skimp on the Barbie” read the front page of the often Trump-friendly New York Post But already the Biden “overhang” argument is wearing thin to deliver a verdict on his handling of the economy As President Trump marks his 100th day in office this week there's not much to celebrate about the U.S And consumer confidence has tumbled to its lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic That hardly looks like the new "golden age" the president promised on Inauguration Day just over three months ago Figures released by the Commerce Department Wednesday show that the United States' gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year after growing at a solid pace of 2.4% in the final months of 2024 The quarterly GDP report covers the final weeks of the Biden administration and the early months of Trump's term, including the first rumblings of the president's new trade war. Growth was dragged down in part by a surge of imports, as businesses and consumers raced to stock up before Trump's sweeping tariffs took effect in early April after robust growth at the end of last year Personal spending grew at an annual rate of just 1.8% in January February and March — less than half the pace of the previous quarter "Consumers continued driving the train but with much less gusto than they have been up until now," said Mark Zandi An index of consumer confidence compiled by the nonprofit Conference Board and tariffs have now eclipsed inflation as a top concern Many of those surveyed say they're worried that Trump's import taxes will raise prices and possibly drag the economy into a recession The forward-looking elements of the confidence index are already well below the level that typically signals a looming recession recession is about a loss of faith," Zandi said "Consumers lose faith that they're going to be able to hold onto their job and they cut back on spending and we go into recession." While the job market has so far held up well, with an unemployment rate of just 4.2% in March the Conference Board's survey found expectations about the job market are the worst since 2009 when the economy was hemorrhaging hundreds of thousands of jobs every month The falling stock market has also taken a toll on confidence the S&P 500 index was down 7.3% since Inauguration Day It's the market's worst performance at the start of a new presidency since the 1970s Trump has imposed 10% taxes on nearly everything the United States imports along with tariffs of 145% on many goods from China The president has also called for additional tariffs — only to suspend them — leaving many businesses and consumers uncertain about what import taxes will look like in the future Curt Carpenter is one of those in wait-and-see mode hoping the tariffs turn out to be "a lot of bluster and a lot of brinkmanship." Carpenter runs a furniture and lighting store in Boston and imports most of his lighting fixtures from China He said the tariffs have been worse for his business than the 2008 housing crisis it's just a tax on the end consumers," Carpenter said We're just losing the opportunity for a sale." Some businesses are cheering for the tariffs makes plastic injection molding equipment for the auto industry He'd been losing business to competitors in China but said since Trump's triple-digit tariffs took effect he has had four phone calls from potential customers exploring the possibility of bringing their orders home "Somebody reached out to us from Ford Motor Company," Barr said They're not saying they're going to do anything but they want to know what their options are those phone calls wouldn't even have taken place." Barr thinks tariffs could be more narrowly targeted to boost domestic producers without placing an undue drag on the broader economy Become an NPR sponsor Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information Photo illustration by 731; Photographer: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images Trump’s second term begins with a decline in US GDP XLinkedInEmailLinkGiftFacebookXLinkedInEmailLinkGiftBy and April 30 2025 at 11:00 AM EDTBookmarkSaveDonald Trump was elected on a pledge to fix all kinds of problems confronting the US economy from stubborn inflation to a long-term decline in manufacturing jobs He’s already declared that he’s off to the greatest start of a presidential term ever The US economy shrank for the first time in three years in the first quarter — mostly a result of surging imports as corporate America tried to front-run Trump's tariffs The rest of what economists call the “hard data” have been relatively solid since the president was inaugurated on Jan with the job market holding steady and inflation showing signs of stabilizing Diccon Hyatt is an experienced financial and economics reporter who has covered the pandemic-era economy in hundreds of stories over the past two years He's written hundreds of stories breaking down complex financial topics in plainspoken language emphasizing the impact that economic currents would have on individuals' finances and the market Community News Service and the Middletown Transcript Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate)." Louisville is known nationally as basketball country But those who live in the city are well aware of its love affair with volleyball The sport's NCAA championship returned to Louisville in December — 12 years after it first hosted the event — and left a grand financial mark making for a total impact of $15.3 million It's tied with the 2023 NCAA men's basketball regional for the highest economic impact of any NCAA championship event the city has hosted These numbers were determined by the Economic Impact Calculator from Destinations International which Louisville Tourism has used since 2017 is "the global association for destination professionals," and its calculator is an industry standard used by more than 375 destination entities in North America The calculator takes two types of data into account when evaluating the economic impact of a given event: Event-specific data includes information like type of event (in this case attendance (including athletes participating in the tournament or meet) Louisville Tourism gets this information from the event producer City-specific data remains unchanged by Louisville Tourism. This information takes into account eight different sources of industry information like local taxes (such as sales tax, which is 6% in Kentucky) The 2012 national semifinals between Oregon-Penn State and Texas-Michigan entertained 13,385 in-person fans making those the 13th most attended volleyball match at the time The regional final between SDSU and Creighton drew 20,051 fans Center's 22,090-seat capacity that makes it optimal for hosting high-profile events Reach college sports enterprise reporter Payton Titus at ptitus@gannett.com Anthony Albanese speaks at the Labor Party election night event in Sydney on May 3 Now the question is whether he’ll use that mandate to push through tough measures to overhaul the nation’s economy previous administrations have shied away from tackling politically difficult issues such as removing tax incentives for investment property and cutting red tape to improve housing supply After winning a majority in parliament with the strongest mandate since World War II Albanese’s center-left government now has the best chance in years to take the hard steps economists have called for to ignite growth economy now shifting into reverse after Donald Trump's abrupt policy shifts president is blaming his predecessor in the White House former Chair of the U.S Council of Economic Advisers economy now shifting into reverse after Donald Trump's abrupt policy shifts International arrivals to the Middle East have surpassed pre-pandemic levels CNN's Becky Anderson is launching a new series "Intelligent Future," exploring how technology is revolutionizing our world today and reshaping the way we will live tomorrow founder of Early Medical and author of "Outlive" on what health and longevity mean in this day and age Analysts predict strong growth will propel Vietnam past regional neighbour within the next decade  Vietnam is on track to become Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, surpassing Thailand, according to a new report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The economic think tank forecasts that Vietnam will rank behind only Indonesia in the region and climb to become the 20th largest economy globally by 2036. The CEBR's World Economic League Table highlights Vietnam's current five-year plan (2021-2025), which anticipates an average annual growth rate of 6.5% over the next decade. This growth is expected to be fuelled by its robust manufacturing sector, further integrated into international supply chains through trade deals and diversified exports. However, the report notes that Vietnam faces considerable hurdles in reaching this goal, including a slowdown in global trade and a growing elderly population. Addressing these challenges will require significant improvements in policy efficiency, particularly in sectors vulnerable to automation, technological advancements, and the impacts of climate change. Separate data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that Vietnam has already risen to become the third-largest economy in Southeast Asia this year, with a GDP of $571 billion. Looking ahead, the IMF projects that by 2027, Thailand's GDP will reach $692 billion, while Vietnam's will be $690 billion. CEBR anticipates that Vietnam's economy will officially overtake Thailand's after 2028, positioning Thailand as the region's third-largest economy. 13 still missing as search continues at collapsed building in Bangkok Thai GI products to be included in plant-based culinary arts programme DSI denies intimidating senatorial candidates in Amnat Charoen over voting collusion Thailand ready to negotiate peace in the South, says Defence Minister Mapping the New World Order: Any Venture into a Changed Economic Landscape Needs a Guiding Light Her work has been cited in The Washington Post She has also frequently appeared on national television and radio You can get in touch with Sonam at s.sheth@newsweek.com Gabe Whisnant is a Breaking News Editor at Newsweek based in North Carolina he directed daily publications in North and South Carolina Gabe led award-winning coverage of Charleston church shooter Dylan Roof's capture in 2015 along with coverage of the Alex Murdaugh double murder trial He is a graduate of the University of North Carolina-Wilmington You can get in touch with Gabe by emailing g.whisnant@newsweek.com President Donald Trump downplayed fears of an economic recession in a newly taped interview will have "the greatest economy in the history of our country" in the long run Trump's comments come as new data showed that the U.S economy shrank during the first quarter of 2025 A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of the economy shrinking global markets have experienced a period of sharp volatility since Trump rolled out a plan last month to impose sweeping tariffs on nearly 200 countries around the world Wall Street has seen significant swings in both directions as the president and his advisers walked back their initial proposal introduced and then revoked tariff exemptions for certain industries and are in the midst of negotiating revised trade agreements with allies and adversaries alike By far the biggest question mark throughout the last month has been China which faces a whopping 145 percent tariff from the United States and retaliated with its own retaliatory trade measures that economists say will significantly hike prices across the board for U.S Wall Street recovered from the initial shock this week regaining the ground it lost after Trump escalated trade tensions with his tariff plan in early April In a preview clip of Sunday's upcoming Meet the Press interview that was released on Friday, Trump tells host Kristen Welker When he was asked if he was worried about the possibility of an economic recession though he acknowledged that "anything can happen." "I think we're going to have the greatest economy in the history of our country," Trump told Welker The preview of Trump's interview came two days after he acknowledged during a Cabinet meeting that the cost of common consumer products could go up, resulting in emptier shelves in stores and a possible toy shortage this Christmas the shelves are going to be open,'" Trump told reporters Wednesday And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally." which allowed products up to $800 to avoid tariffs as long as they were shipped directly to U.S As a result, the popular Chinese retailer Temu on Friday stopped shipping products directly to the U.S. to avoid having to pay high tariffs the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles told CNBC this week that he anticipates next week's cargo volume to drop by more than a third compared to last year: "According to our own port optimizer we'll be down just a little bit over 35 percent next week compared to last year And it's a precipitous drop in volume with a number of major American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs." asked whether he was concerned about empty shelves told "Fox & Friends": "Not at present." and then we will see how quickly the Chinese want to de-escalate." Seroka told CNBC he anticipates that around a quarter of normally scheduled ship arrivals will be canceled this month ET: This story has been updated with additional information and context