Many voted for party as protest against government
while others have detached completely from politics
The boss, as aides call him, was on his way. It was 2.30am and Nigel Farage had arrived at a Cheshire leisure centre, ready to declare victory in the closely-fought Runcorn and Helsby byelection
But as camera crews gathered, Reform UK officials who were ready to welcome their leader frantically scrambled back to the ballot boxes
It would be another three hours before Farage sauntered into the DCBL Stadium
looking relaxed despite the knife-edge contest that had left his sleep-deprived aides looking increasingly frazzled
The 61-year-old laughed off claims he had spent daybreak touring Widnes after aborting his earlier grand entrance
absolutely no question,” declared the perma-tanned populist
as his party grasped hold of one of Labour’s safest seats by just six votes after a dramatic recount
It was the narrowest parliamentary byelection win this century
On the southern banks of the River Mersey in Cheshire
from the post-industrial town of Runcorn to the Conservative villages around Frodsham
Reform UK had united an uneasy coalition of voters against Labour
One party activist described its supporters as a combination of “those who set their alarm for work in the morning and are angry at those who don’t – and those who don’t”
had relied on those who despise Farage – and they span all political shades – but it was not enough to save their 14,700-vote majority
Many had voted for Reform UK as a protest against the government
Others expressed their displeasure more creatively
“I’ve never seen so many drawings of penises,” said one seasoned Labour campaigner after examining spoiled ballot papers
The discontent was palpable on Friday in Murdishaw
a 1970s housing estate in Runcorn where barely one in four voted in Thursday’s contest – the lowest turnout in the constituency
was horrified when told by the Guardian that Reform had won by just six votes
adding: “I forgot all about [the election]
Underlying Reform UK’s dismantling of the historic two-party system in Westminster is a much more troubling trend: the growing numbers of voters detaching completely from politics
a former Conservative councillor and local magistrate
becomes the first non-Labour MP elected by Runcorn in more than half a century
But 200 miles across northern England, Reform gained its most powerful role yet as Andrea Jenkyns, a former Tory MP, was crowned mayor of the newly created authority of Greater Lincolnshire with a thumping 40,000-vote lead over the Conservatives
View image in fullscreenAndrea Jenkyns took a 40,000-vote lead over her Conservative rival to become the mayor of Greater Lincolnshire
Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty ImagesVoters will now look to Greater Lincolnshire
Durham and Staffordshire to see what Reform UK can do in power
Jenkyns has pledged to ape Elon Musk’s cost-cutting “department of government efficiency” by launching a “Doge Lincolnshire”
Jenkyns wasted no time in burnishing her hard-right credentials in her victory speech
telling the count centre in Grimsby that vulnerable asylum seekers should be forced to sleep in tents rather than housed in hotels
they should be good enough for here in Britain,” she said
Speaking at a celebratory rally later on Friday at a working men’s club in County Durham
saying Reform-run areas would “resist” efforts by central government to house asylum seekers locally
The elections were “a truly historic landmark”
Conservative voters in the leafy village of Kingsley
which recorded the constituency’s highest turnout
“It’s gone from Labour and that’s a good thing,” said one cheerful retiree
said he believed the byelection was won as a result of divisive national concerns such as immigration rather than local issues
“I think there’s been a lot of noise created around this and a lot of noise by Reform,” he said
making statements about illegal immigrants – who are not the same as asylum seekers – and trying to bias the views of the public.”
Nigel Farage has declared a "big moment" in British politics as Reform makes gains from Labour and the Tories in local elections across the country
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Nigel Farage has declared two-party politics "is finished" after Reform UK gained a new MP and took control of councils across the country
The Reform leader addressed supporters in Durham following a day of successive victories in the local elections
which he said showed his party was now "the main opposition" to the government
Politics Live: Could Reform finally get a toehold of power?
The day began with Reform narrowly winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes
overturning the 14,700 majority secured by Labour at the general election less than 12 months ago
The insurgent party has also taken Lincolnshire
Staffordshire and Lancashire councils from the Tories and gained control of Durham
where Labour was previously the biggest party
Mr Farage mocked Sir Keir Starmer for declaring at Prime Minister's Questions recently that Reform "will have the Conservative Party for breakfast"
which was: we were going to have the Labour Party for lunch and we've done that today," the Clacton MP said
claiming to have "wiped them out" and that they no longer have any relevance
"Today marks the end of two-party politics - it is finished"
The by-election in Runcorn was called after the previous MP, Mike Amesbury, resigned following his conviction for punching a constituent.
Reform candidate Sarah Pochin won with 12,645 votes
compared to the 12,639 secured by Labour's Karen Shore
making it the closest by-election result since records began in 1945
It comes as a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer
who is facing calls from his own MPs to change course and reverse some of the recent spending cuts he has introduced
Speaking to reporters on Friday morning, the prime minister told Sky News he "gets it" and would "reflect" on the result
"We've got to deliver that change more quickly and go further than we've gone so far"
he defended taking "tough but right decisions" in his first 10 months
saying Labour "inherited a broken economy" from the Tories
"Maybe other prime ministers would have walked past that
pretended it wasn't there (...) I took the choice to make sure our economy was stable," Sir Keir said
voters on Thursday took part in contests to elect more than 1,600 councillors across 23 local authorities
along with four regional mayors and two local mayors
Mr Farage's party was storming ahead by early Friday afternoon
gaining Durham County Council from No Overall Control (NOC) while wiping out the Tories' majority to take control of Staffordshire County Council
Lincolnshire County Council and Lancashire
former Conservative minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected as the first mayor in Greater Lincolnshire
winning a majority of almost 40,000 over her ex-party
Analysis: Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice
While the Tories suffered heavy losses, losing their majority in places including Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Gloucestershire and Devon, there was one success story as they gained the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty from Labour.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch was defiant in a post on X, saying the renewal of her party has "only just begun" and she would "win back the trust of the public and the seats we've lost in the years to come".
Meanwhile, Tory co-chairman Nigel Huddleston dismissed Reform's success, telling Sky News: "They are emerging into a populist popular party, not an alternative to the Conservatives, but trying to transcend and promise everything to everybody. That is not a long-term sustainable position."
Ms Pochin, in a fluent victory speech that suggested she’ll be a competent House of Commons performer, declared that the voters of the Runcorn and Helsby constituency had had enough of Tory failures and Labour lies.
Then, in a typically ebullient Sky News interview, Mr Farage said: “Britain is broken.” He also predicted more wins for his party in local government elections later on Friday.
For Labour, there will be a huge inquest into how they came so close to holding the seat and lost by just six votes. Many Labour MPs and party members will condemn Sir Keir Starmer for not bothering to visit the constituency to campaign for their candidate Karen Shore.
Mr Farage visited four times, including a lengthy stint on polling day. Say what you like about Mr Farage, and his opponents certainly do, he’s a tireless campaigner with a stamina that astounds even members of his inner circle.
His relentless tenacity has paid off handsomely. Other party leaders – with the notable exception of Sir Ed Davey – take note. Sir Keir sat on his hands and Kemi Badenoch was invisible too.
And they’ve both paid the price: humiliation.
And so, after declaring the Tories are “toast”, Mr Farage announced he was heading off for a bacon sandwich.
Last week at Prime Minister’s Questions, Sir Keir said Mr Farage would “eat the Tory party for breakfast”.
But in Runcorn and Helsby - and many other parts of the UK - he’s just eaten Labour for breakfast as well.
There was also some good news for Labour on Friday, as it held on to the North Tyneside mayoralty in the first vote of the night - albeit by just 444 votes.
Labour also saw off Reform in the West of England and Doncaster to retain both mayoralties. However, in Doncaster it was also a slim majority, with Labour's Ros Jones clinging on by 698 votes.
Ms Jones criticised decisions to means-test the winter fuel allowance, hike employers' national insurance contributions and squeeze welfare.
She told the BBC: "I think the results here tonight will demonstrate that they need to be listening to the man, woman and businesses on the street, and actually deliver for the people, with the people."
Her comments have been echoed by several Labour MPs, with Brian Leishman saying that people voted for an end to austerity in the general election and Sir Keir's first 10 months in office "haven't been good enough or what the people want".
"If we don't improve people's living standards then the next government will be an extreme right-wing one," the Scottish MP warned on X.
Runcorn shows Labour must change course. People voted for real change last July & an end to austerity. The first 10 months haven’t been good enough or what the people want & if we don’t improve people’s living standards then the next government will be an extreme right wing one.
A tone deaf response from Labour spokespeople. We must listen to and heed the message voters have delivered and we must respond to it by changing the lives of working class people for the better with polices that transform the economic situation.If we do not improve the…
Kim Johnson, in the nearby Liverpool constituency of Riverside, also said Runcorn "is a warning we can't ignore" adding: "Voters want change - and if we don't offer it with bold, hopeful policies that rebuild trust, the far right will."
Ian Byrne, the MP for Liverpool's West Derby, urged the party leadership to "truly reflect and change course", saying the response of spokespeople to the results on Friday has been "tone deaf".
On Friday morning, Labour chairwoman Ellie Reeves had said incumbent governments "never tend to do very well in parliamentary by-elections" and Runcorn was held in "very difficult circumstances".
She also said that people were "impatient for change" but change "doesn't happen overnight".
Lead politics presenter Sophy Ridge, political editor Beth Rigby, and data and economics editor Ed Conway will be live on Friday morning to report and explain the results.
Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; additional reporting by William James
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Keir Starmer visits a defence contractor as local and mayoral election results come in
Friday 2 May (PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo)
Labour’s defeat in Runcorn was entirely avoidable – and is the direct result of the party leadership’s political choices
By pushing policies like cuts to disability benefits and scrapping the winter fuel allowance for millions
the leadership is driving away our own voters – and letting Reform squeeze through
The Labour leadership must urgently change course and deliver the real change people are crying out for
Chasing Reform voters is a strategic dead end
Labour won a landslide majority just nine months ago
some in the party may believe we can simply ride out the defeat in Runcorn (and the close races elsewhere) and wait for the tide to turn
That would be a dangerously complacent reading of events
Labour’s general election majority was won on the lowest-ever vote share for a winning party and on a near-record low turnout. Just one in five eligible voters backed Labour. As pollsters warned at the time, this majority should never have been seen as a skyscraper but a sandcastle – one that could wash away just as the Tories’ 2019 landslide did
To hold and then build from that fragile position
Labour has needed a strategy to expand its coalition – by showing it is on the side of the vast majority of people
sitting in the House of Commons listening to the leadership
at times it has felt like it is doing the exact opposite
Much attention will now turn to how to fight Reform UK
especially as they are in second place in dozens of Labour seats
Labour cannot afford to misread this moment
The collapse of Labour’s progressive coalition is what’s allowing Reform to win
Policies that rebuild that coalition are the only way to stop them
Polling shows Labour is bleeding at least as much support to its left as to its right. A YouGov poll earlier this year found Labour had lost seven per cent of its 2024 voters to the Liberal Democrats and six per cent to the Greens
That’s more than the five per cent lost to Reform UK and four per cent to the Conservatives
New research this week from Persuasion UK underlines that message. Only 11 per cent of Labour’s 2024 voters are “Reform-curious”
there are three or four Labour voters open to voting for the Greens or Lib Dems
three-quarters of Reform’s support comes from voters who haven’t backed Labour in a general election in 20 years. They are historically anti-Labour voters who have overwhelmingly voted for various parties on the right including the Conservatives and UKIP and to a lesser extent not voted at all
Reform’s gains since the general election are thanks to disillusioned ex-Tories and non-voters – and not in any significant way from Labour’s own voter base
Trying to win over these Reform voters with rightward lurches risks doing more harm than good by alienating core Labour supporters and making vote-splitting amongst progressive voters even more likely
The result will be more far-right MPs and more working-class communities left without a real champion
Much better would be to start embracing real Labour values like taxing the wealthiest and delivering massive investment in public services
These are the policies the polling says would best allow Labour to hold both Reform and Green defectors
After more than a decade of Conservative cruelty
the public wanted a break from austerity and real change
Labour has presented itself as the party of change — but voters clearly don’t like what is now being offered
Next May sees elections for the Scottish and Welsh governments and in hundreds of council seats in Labour heartlands across England
It could be the true moment of reckoning for the government
It is not too late for the Labour leadership to signal a new direction
It must bring people together around a bold
then Reform will hope that these elections are just a stepping stone to copying Trump and forming the next government on the back of a wave of popular anger
The consequences of that would be horrific for those the Labour Party exists to represent
Richard Burgon is the Labour MP for Leeds East
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There is little disguising what is surely going to be the prevailing story as council election results pour in from lunchtime onwards: Reform UK has had a very good night
Labour a poor one and the Conservatives a disastrous one
To win a by-election – even by just six votes – in Runcorn
especially following the civil war which threatened after Rupert Lowe’s ejection from the party
by-election victories can give challenger parties false hope: they will not necessarily save them from a meltdown in a subsequent general election.
But it is a remark from a Labour campaigner in the Runcorn by-election
which provides the most illuminating comment on that contest and probably on the whole election night
Reform is now the party standing up for industrial jobs
seem to have flocked to Reform because they found both Labour and the Tories insufficiently left-wing
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Play Brightcove videoWatch analysis from the ITV News team on England's local election results
An insurgent Reform UK is celebrating a series of historic victories after winning its first by-election
and taking control of a string of councils in England's local elections
Nigel Farage declared during a victory lap that his party had "had the Labour Party for lunch" and its triumphs marked the "end of two-party politics"
he told ITV News he will "resist" people seeking asylum from being placed in the council areas that Reform now controls
insisting "we've had enough"
before going on to say "Conservative Party is done"
Reform's winning streak began after it secured victory early in Runcorn and Helsby by just six votes
overturning a large Labour majority in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer in his first by-election test as prime minister
A defeated Starmer told ITV News following the "disappointing" result: "I get it."
Reform MP Sarah Pochin's narrow victory saw Reform take a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than 12 months ago
making it the closest by-election result since the end of the Second World War
The party made huge gains against both the Conservatives and Labour
winning hundreds of seats across counties from south to north England
Sir Ed Davey's Lib Dems have also made gains at the Tories’ expense in Devon
He said this shows his party has replaced the Conservatives as “the party of middle England”
The Conservatives lost control of all the councils they were defending
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch told Conservative councillors who lost their seats she was “sincerely sorry” and that while the public are “fed up” with Labour
they are not yet ready to trust the Tories
Starmer says he'll go 'further and faster'
while Labour MPs urge for change of direction
Speaking to ITV News after the by-election
Starmer said: "Many prime ministers will respond to this by saying 'oppositions always do well in these sorts of by-elections' or 'it was very close' - and it was very close
"All of that is perfectly true but my response is to say
"We were elected into government at the general election last year to deliver change
We've started that work - waiting lists are coming down
interest rates are down - that's all good for working people
But the message I take out of these results is that we need to go further and faster with change
"People need to see and feel that change..
We're going to double down on that now."
'I get it,' the PM tells ITV News
insisting his government will 'go further and faster' to deliver change
Labour MPs including Diane Abbott and Emma Lewell publicly called on the government to change course following the results
arguing that voters had wanted an end to austerity but faced further cuts
"I think that a lot of mainstream Labour supporters are feeling very disillusioned and are feeling this isn't their Labour Party
it's about Labour values," Abbott told ITV News
"I want the leadership to start to speak up for some of our more marginalised and poorer communities
She fears the party is "moving towards the right" and that the direction it's taken is "alarming"
condemning a series of decisions the leadership has taken since winning the election
such as failing to lift the two-child benefit cap
scrapping the winter fuel allowance and cutting benefits for the disabled
she doesn't think it's too late to turn things around as long as the party "learns the lessons" from these results
Fellow Labour MP Emma Lewell said in a post on X: “Trust matters
If you promise people that you will be focused on serving the public and then do not listen to them
denial of compensation for the Waspi women
She added: “It is tone deaf to keep repeating we will move further and faster on our plan for change
Reform wins several county councils and two mayoral positions
Reform's wins kept on coming as the party took control of eight county councils on Friday afternoon
leading Farage to declare Reform is "now the main opposition party" and that a “big moment” was taking place in UK politics
Its candidates took more than a staggering 50 seats at Durham County Council
while Reform took another 45 seats on the former Tory-controlled Kent
Reform swiped another three county councils
It swiped Doncaster council from Labour - marking the start of an interesting split in the county between the parties with Reform controlling the council and a Labour mayor elected
'We will resist and fight as much as we can people who cross the English Channel being placed in these counties,' Nigel Farage tells ITV News Political Correspondent Harry Horton
Farage said any council staff working on diversity or climate change initiatives
or those who work from home should look for other jobs
"I would advise anybody who’s working for Durham County Council on climate change initiatives or Diversity
Equity and Inclusion or… thinks that you can go on working from home
I think you all better really be seeking alternative careers very
It came after Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected the party's first mayor for Greater Lincolnshire on Friday morning with a majority of almost 40,000 over the Conservatives
She said in her victory speech that asylum seekers should be housed in tents
When ITV News asked Farage whether that is Reform policy
he replied: "No I'm much harder line than that
Reform won its second mayoralty when ex-boxer and former Olympic gold medallist Luke Campbell was elected for Hull & East Yorkshire
There was some good news for Labour as the party won mayoral elections in North Tyneside
Helen Godwin beat Reform’s Arron Banks in the West of England by 5,945 votes
The party also held the North Tyneside mayoralty
although with a majority of just 444 ahead of Reform in second place
Labour held on to the mayoralty with a majority of 698 over Reform
the Tories - amid the bruising council losses - took a mayoralty from Labour
with victory for ex-MP Paul Bristow in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
The position had been Labour held since 2021
but their candidate Anna Smith came in third behind the Lib Dems
Voters 'hungry for change,' writes Political Correspondent Shehab Khan from North Lincolnshire
As we prepared to go live for ITVX in North Lincolnshire
a car sped past behind us and a man shouted “Reform!” while punching the air - an unprompted but clear display of the enthusiasm that many are feeling
A performative act for the camera no doubt but it reflects the buoyant mood among some Reform supporters
the party is making significant gains and many of the voters that we have spoken to yesterday and today in Grimsby tell us they are hungry for change
and feel that neither Labour nor the Conservatives are willing or able to deliver it
One couple we spoke to told us they were Tory voters but now believe the party is too weak on the issues that matter to them and they are feeling positive that Reform will be the voice they are looking for
The election of Dame Andrea Jenkyns as the first Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire now offers a revealing opportunity to see how Reform governs in practice
She'll oversee a £24 million budget and hold influence over key areas such as transport
One member of the shadow cabinet summed up their mood with a pointed remark: “Let’s see how they get on when there’s actual work to do.”
Runcorn and Helsby was a by-election full of drama after Reform won the seat by just four votes - but a Labour-requested recount then pushed the margin to six
The vote was triggered when former Labour MP Mike Amesbury quit after admitting to punching a constituent
Farage said he was "delighted" with the win
and branded the prime minister a "coward" when asked why he thought Starmer had not visited the constituency during the campaign
Pochin said the people of Runcorn and Helsby had spoken
“We have made history in Runcorn and Helsby..
Chairwoman of the Labour Party Ellie Reeves told ITV News it was a by-election "held in difficult circumstances" for the party and rejected that Reform's gains overnight marked the end of two-party politics
'It's very premature to say politics has changed,' says ITV News Elections Analyst
She suggested Reform would face greater scrutiny after its electoral gains
"People will be looking closely now at Reform's policies - not just the noise that they make but actually what it is that they stand for," she said
as she swiped at Farage's suggestions that the NHS should not be publicly funded
The Tories said the change Starmer delivered had been “roundly rejected” and Labour MPs will “rightfully question his leadership” after Reform’s by-election win
From Westminster to Washington DC - our political experts are across all the latest key talking points
in Kemi Badenoch’s first electoral test as leader
were also suffering at the hands of Reform and were squeezed by the Liberal Democrats
Most of the council seats that were up for grabs were last contested in May 2021
at a time when the then-Conservative government
led by former prime minister Boris Johnson
was enjoying a spike in popularity following the successful roll-out of the first Covid vaccines
who'd been largely quiet for much of the day
admitting it is a "very difficult" day of results for her party and apologised to councillors who'd lost their seats
Badenoch wrote: "These were always going to be a very difficult set of elections coming off the high of 2021
and our historic defeat last year - and so it’s proving
"The renewal of our party has only just begun and I’m determined to win back the trust of the public and the seats we’ve lost
Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News
Council and Mayoral Election results are starting to come in across Britain as Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party attempts to position itself as the country's major Conservative Party
The party is building on its shock UK General Election swing last year
Early results show it could challenge the status quo and position itself as the major challenger to Labour going forward
Reform UK has seen swings of more than 20 per cent in early council and mayoral results
It has also claimed a historical victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election - its candidate winning by just six votes
Paul Brand is Leading Britain's Conversation
Reform UK has won the knife-edge Runcorn by-election against Labour following a dramatic recount
The race between Reform's Sarah Pochin and Labour candidate Karen Shore was separated by just four votes
"Provisional announcement from Runcorn & Helsby is Reform wins by four votes," Zia Yusuf
who is present at the vote count at the Halton Stadium in Widnes
Read more: With Reform knocking on the door of local politics, the Tories look set for a bloodbath, writes LBC's Natasha Clark
But several hours later, the news came in that Reform had indeed won the race by just six votes, in what will go down as the closest race in by-election history.
Sarah Pochin becomes the constituency's new MP after securing 12,645 votes, six more than Labour's 12,639.
85 ballots were rejected as part of the recount.
Nigel Farage said it was a “big moment” for Reform UK as he arrived at the Runcorn and Helsby count.
He said: "For the movement, for the party, it's a very, very big moment indeed, absolutely, no question, and it's happening right across England."
Speaking to LBC, Farage said the country has "lost faith" in Labour and pointed to the increase in channel crossings as a key reason for their defeat.
Speaking directly to Sir Keir Starmer, Farage said: “I would just say to him, very simply, that people who put trust in you, that is eroded, albeit almost eradicated, in a very short space of time.
“Be nice to know who he really is, wouldn't it? What does he actually, I mean, what does he actually believe in? It seems that whatever Morgan McSweeney writes for him on a piece of paper he reads out, there's no conviction in this Labour Party.
“But crucially, crucially, the things that switched a lot of old Labour voters to us in this constituency, number one, working people, they have alarms that go off in the morning, they cross the bridge and work in Merseyside.
“Mostly the taxes they pay are going up and they wonder why they're doing it.
“Secondly, a feeling that somehow Labour is not a patriotic party.
“And thirdly, there are 750 young men who've crossed the English Channel living in this constituency at the expense of hard-working taxpayers, causing great alarm in many streets.
“Dover may be a long way away. Its influence on this by election was enormous.”
Sarah Pochin, who becomes Reform's fifth MP, said: "We have made history here tonight."
The contest to become the new MP for Runcorn and Helsby was the first by-election under Keir Starmer's leadership, and was seen as hugely important for both Reform and Labour.
Labour said by-elections are "always difficult for the party in Government" and the events surrounding the Runcorn And Helsby vote made it "even harder" after Reform UK's Sarah Pochin won the seat.
A party spokesperson said: "By-elections are always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder.
"Voters are still rightly furious with the state of the country after 14 years of failure and clearly expect the Government to move faster with the plan for change.
"While Labour has suffered an extremely narrow defeat, the shock is that the Conservative vote has collapsed. Moderate voters are clearly appalled by the talk of a Tory-Reform pact.
"There are encouraging signs that our plan for change is working - NHS waiting lists, inflation and interest rates down with wages up - but we will go further and faster to deliver change with relentless focus on putting money back into people's pockets."
The vote was triggered after former Labour MP Mike Amesbury quit the party after admitting punching a constituent in the street, which was caught on CCTV.
Amesbury pleaded guilty to assaulting constituent Paul Fellows, 45, after a row in the street in Frodsham, Cheshire, in January, for which he was given a suspended sentence.
Amesbury won his seat last year with a majority of 14,696 over Reform UK, and his resignation became the first by-election test for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party.
It comes as a number of by-elections are being held across England, and Reform UK is contesting nearly all of them.
More than 1,600 council seats are up for grabs across 23 local authorities, while four regional mayors and two local mayors will be elected.
At the last local elections in 2024, Reform only put forward candidates in 12% of all available council seats. This year, Farage said the party is deploying nearly a "full list of candidates across the entire country".
The leader of the right-wing populist party, Nigel Farage, said he wanted to “smash the two-party system”.
Reform does not currently run any councils, but critics and supporters alike will be eager to see how they will run local authorities if they do win councils and mayoral contests.
The level of votes they receive at the local level will also be a major electoral test for the party, which has publicly spoken about their ambitions to win the next general election and run the country.
Most of the council seats were last contested in May 2021, at a time when the then-Conservative government, led by former prime minister Boris Johnson, was enjoying a spike in popularity following the successful rollout of the first Covid-19 vaccines.
This means the Tories are defending a large number of seats across much of the country: they currently control 19 of the 23 local authorities holding elections on Thursday, either as the majority party or a minority administration.
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Result will heighten government’s fears it could lose scores of MPs to Nigel Farage’s party at next general election
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has dramatically won the Runcorn and Helsby byelection by just six votes in a blow to Keir Starmer’s premiership
The hard-right party narrowly overturned Labour’s 14,700-vote majority in the first full-scale electoral test of Starmer’s government and set a new record for the smallest majority at a parliamentary by-election since the end of the second world war
The result, which came on a night when Reform UK was expected to gain hundreds of council seats across England
followed a 17% swing from Labour to Farage’s party
After a recount that delayed the declaration by three hours
Reform’s Sarah Pochin won 38.6% of the vote – amounting to 12,645 votes
making it one of the smallest margins of victory in recent UK political history
The Conservatives slumped from 16% of the vote at last year’s general election to 7% in this contest
narrowly finishing ahead of the Green party in third place
The closely watched contest had been billed as the first real test of Farage’s ability to turn his party’s rising popularity into seats in parliament
a former Tory councillor and local magistrate
becomes the first non-Labour MP to represent the Cheshire town of Runcorn in 52 years
Arriving at the count centre to declare victory at 6am on Friday
Farage said: “Here and across the country you’re seeing big swings to us
from Labour in the north and Conservatives in the Midlands and the south
absolutely no question and it’s happening right across everywhere.”
Farage said the result sent a clear message that “we are now the opposition” and that if voters backed the Conservatives then they would “just get a Labour government”
0:40Nigel Farage says Reform is now main opposition party after local election gains – videoDespite the tiny margin of victory the result will heighten fears among Labour MPs that they could lose scores of seats to the hard-right populist party at the next general election
refused to speak to the media as she was ushered out of the count centre at the DCBL Stadium in Widnes
The Cheshire byelection was triggered by the resignation of Labour’s Mike Amesbury
the former MP who was convicted earlier this year of punching a constituent
Farage’s party sought to make immigration the key issue in this overwhelmingly white British corner of north-west England
houses of multiple occupancy and even Turkish barbers
Reform UK also attacked Labour’s cutting of the winter fuel payment – an issue repeatedly raised by voters – as well as its early release of prisoners and the rising cost of energy bills
delivering Reform UK its fifth MP and establishing the fledgling party has a serious challenger to Britain’s two main parties
In her victory speech Pochin said: “Enough is enough
I want to thank every one of you who were brave enough to put a cross against my name on the ballot paper.”
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She said the result would “inspire the rest of the country to believe that they too can stand up for what is right and stand up for our British values”
The result appears to back up recent opinion polls that suggested the anti-European Union populists were on course to topple Britain’s historic two-party system at the next general election
Despite Runcorn and Helsby being one of Labour’s safest seats, the party faced a challenge to win over voters from the beginning given it was sparked by Amesbury violently assaulting a constituent in a drunken late-night row
Shore was criticised for launching a Facebook petition to close a hotel housing asylum seekers
in what some saw as a cynical attempt to stem the flow of votes to Reform UK
denied her campaign was “prejudiced” but admitted “that the tone of it could’ve been slightly different – and the fact it was exploited by the populists”
Campaigners from both parties repeatedly said the result was “too close to call”
downplaying talk of a decisive victory for either side
Turnout in the contest was a higher-than-expected 46.33%
which some on the count floor attributed to the “Farage factor” – a reference to the Reform UK leader’s ability to provoke strong opinion on either side
There were bizarre scenes at the count centre when Reform UK officials announced that Farage was expected to arrive imminently about 30 minutes before the result was expected – a sign they were confident of victory
But as camera crews and officials gathered
some holding the door open for their soon-to-arrive leader
Journalists were then told he was instead waiting in a car near the venue
perhaps as word reached him that it was too soon to declare a win
In today’s newsletter: Early indications of Conservative collapse in benchmark local elections
Kemi Badenoch and Keir Starmer may wish they could go back to bed
the party lost a majority of almost 15,000 to the Reform candidate Sarah Pochin after a recount – agonisingly being defeated by the margin of just six votes
the narrowest byelection victory in more than 100 years
the former Conservative minister Andrea Jenkyns was announced as the new Reform mayor a few minutes ago
A caveat worth repeating: there is an awful lot of this story still to be told
because the results in councils are yet to be announced
though: the results so far will have left Nigel Farage in a very good mood indeed
To follow the latest news and analysis as it lands, head to the live blog. The latest results are here
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View image in fullscreenAnxious Labour scrutineers watching the recount at the Runcorn and Helsby byelection
Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The GuardianThe first sign of the direction of the night came in North Tyneside
where Labour held the mayoralty – but saw their majority massively reduced
Labour’s Karen Clark beat Reform’s John Falkenstein by just 444 votes
Clark’s predecessor Norma Redfearn won with 53% of the vote; Clark prevailed with a shade over 30%
“A win is a win,” science minister Peter Kyle told the BBC
Nigel Farage was reported to have spent quite a lot of the night sitting in a car somewhere near the DCBL Stadium in Widnes
where votes in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection were being counted
ready to sweep in to claim the glory if it went Reform’s way
The extraordinarily tight margin of the first count – four votes - was followed by a full recount
and close scrutiny of every ballot (“I’ve seen more drawings of penises than I’ve ever seen in my life,” one observer told Josh Halliday)
Farage made a premature claim of victory on social media
and said it was Labour that demanded the recount
He finally got out of a car with his candidate
former Conservative councillor Sarah Pochin
hilariously delivered with the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate hovering inches to her left
she said that the voters had delivered an anti-system message: “Enough is enough
given Runcorn was one of their 50 safest seats in the country at the general election
presumably hoping to avoid being too closely associated with a potential defeat: he may now be wondering if he might have swayed the four people he would have needed to fend off the Reform challenge
“Bloody hell,” Josh Halliday said in Widnes
and actually most of the time people have a good idea who won
This time no one knew which way it would go right until the wire.”
What is the broader significance of the result
there were suggestions that tactical anti-Reform voting might play a crucial role here
And the number of votes for the Green party and Lib Dems – 3,256 between them – suggests that that may have been the case
who may have similarly benefitted from Tory switchers
“I spoke to a couple of Tories who said they were going to back Labour because they couldn’t stomach Reform
and that probably made it closer than it would have been,” Josh said
“I’ve been here four times since the end of January
and it’s felt like Reform’s to lose – I wonder whether polls showing them winning made people ask if they really wanted a Reform MP
Luke Tryl, of More In Common, said that one key question ahead of the by-election was whether Reform’s momentum could be converted to actual votes against the traditional parties’ “get out the vote” operations: “Clearly they’ve done that in Runcorn,” he said
“Their performance in the byelection significantly exceeds the swing you might you expect based on current opinion polls.”
In Greater Lincolnshire, Reform’s candidate Andrea Jenkyns – who you may remember giving the finger to protesters outside Downing Street in her previous incarnation as a Tory minister
and who campaigned on a “DOGE Lincolnshire” ticket – won comfortably: she won more than 100,000 votes
“This is a painful blow to the Tories in an area that’s one of their heartlands,” said Ben Quinn
“It wasn’t without damage for Labour as well – she annihilated the Tories across Lincolnshire
but even the places were Labour might have done better she beat them comfortably.”
In the West of England
Labour’s Helen Godwin finished ahead of her closest rival
by 5,945 votes – a much better performance for Reform than the polling had indicated
Labour’s Ros Jones beat Reform’s Alexander Jones by a whisker – 23,805 votes to 23,107
“Everyone has been talking for quite a long time about Reform being a threat to the Tories
but this is a really good example of the threat they pose to Labour,” said Robyn Vinter
“The Conservatives actually did better than they could have expected
Ros Jones told me she was frustrated with the national party over the winter fuel allowance cut and the Pip cut
which she thought had gone down very badly here.”
Those looking for a sense of how the Conservatives are likely to do in the many councils they hold across the country that are up for grabs were paying close attention to Staffordshire, where the Tories held 55 of 62 seats until yesterday. Of 30 results called by 5.30am
24 had gone to Reform – every one of them previously held by a Conservative
Sam Freedman, author of the Comment is Freed Substack, reasonably called it an “absolute shocker” for the Tories
and added: “I thought it was one of their best chances to hold a council and Reform are going to win it outright easily
I can’t see them holding any of their 19 councils now.” Across all of the council seats declared in England a short while ago
Reform had 66 seats – from a standing start – while the Tories were on 37
Only one council was expected to complete their count overnight – Northumberland – and the results there should land soon
with Labour hopeful of becoming the largest party but with no one having overall control
it may be the start of a very long day for Kemi Badenoch
There’s a break until 1pm when Durham are next to announce
and you can expect that void to be filled by considerable broadcast pontification
While Reform has undoubtedly had a good night
we should wait to see the council results before making any claims about the complete picture
The mood of the electorate presented by most recent polls – with Labour
the Conservatives and Reform all between 20% and 25% – means that quite small variations can make big changes to the overall result
The BBC publishes John Curtice’s estimate of national vote share in the afternoon
and the final results drop around 7pm tonight: by then
we’ll have a sense of just how ugly things might get for Badenoch and Starmer – and whether Reform really can claim to be the most popular party in England
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Reform UK has gained its fifth MP after narrowly edging to victory in the first by-election test of Labour's parliament
Sarah Pochin overturned a Labour majority of nearly 15,000 in the Cheshire constituency of Runcorn and Helsby
making her the first Reform MP in the North West of England
It was dramatic night after the declaration was delayed as the close nature of the contest led to a recount
with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage forced to wait before arriving at the count centre in Widnes for his moment of triumph
The declaration came at just before 6am on Friday 2 May
with Mr Farage calling it a "big moment" for politics
He said it was a sign that Sir Keir Starmer had “alienated so much of his traditional base
The seat was once regarded as one of Labour's safest areas
but hailing her victory Ms Pochin said "“Firstly
who has so inspired me to stand up for this country.”
She added: “The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken - enough is enough
“I want to thank every one of you who were brave enough to put a cross against my name on the ballot paper
every one of you who have put their faith in me as your next Member of Parliament for this constituency
and who have put their faith in Nigel Farage as the next Prime Minister of this great country.”
Sir Keir Starmer said Labour’s loss was “disappointing” and the Government needed to go “further and faster” in delivering change
He has been criticised for not visiting the constituency during campaigning - something the party says is normal for a by-election
Kim Johnson, who represents Liverpool Riverside for Labour described the Runcorn result as “a warning we can’t ignore”
“Voters want change – and if we don’t offer it with bold
the alternative won’t be more of the same - it’ll be an extreme right-wing government.”
The election was sparked by the resignation of the former MP Mike Amesbury after he was convicted of punching a constituent in October 2024
Ms Pochin won the constituency by just six votes
with Labour coming second with 12,639 votes
A total of 15 different candidates were on the ballot paper when polls opened on 1 May
in the House of Commons to represent the party
Rupert Lowe was also elected for Reform UK during the 2024 general election
but had the whip removed from him in March after police and internal investigations were started against him
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Nigel Farage (Credit: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty)
And yet the by-election — and the national turn to turquoise — is a harbinger of a near-future defined by an angry
Few expect Nigel to deliver us from tepid decline
Nobody even quite expects him to fulfil the most basic of promises
or to staunch the rot of long-running outsourcing scams atop of English local government
The financial woes of the 350-odd authorities in the country
many of them teetering on the precipice of fiscal oblivion
won’t be solved by cutting back on DEI or net zero
the results across the country demonstrate that following the embarrassments of the mainstream parties in office
first-past-the-post system at European levels of political multipolarisation
the most successful in the history of Western democracies
And alongside the Faragists on the polling papers now jostle the standard continental panoply of Leftist ecologists
as well as independent candidates swept in via South Asian Baradari voting blocs
By Despotic Inroad
The polycentric politics mirrors a diffuse
collapsing sense of a shared national culture
Gone are the days when the BBC had a near-monopoly on political news
and when the horse meat scandal or the “pasty tax” could dominate headlines for weeks
we have a schizophrenic media landscape in which a Presidential assassination attempt
or an Islamist mass murder in a Christmas market
is forgotten as quickly as a passing TikTok reel
The postmodern breakdown of our collective consciousness reflects the mood of a despondent
fragmented electorate searching for any answers from any direction after almost two decades of wage stagnation and the visible deterioration of our public spaces and common life
This is a warm petri dish for all manner of mini-Caesars and political entrepreneurs
a fifth Reform MP won’t make much difference in immediate practical terms
It would have been six if Rupert Lowe hadn’t believed his own hype
sucked into the vortex of memetic half-truths that make up the Twitter rabbit holes of the Very Online Right
succumbing to his digitally illiterate boomerism after being flattered by Elon Musk
The more ballots that were counted last night
the more Farage’s decision to exorcise Lowe from his parliamentary grouping was roundly vindicated
She represents merely a strong-willed protest vote
Reform isn’t a set of productive public policy plans — it’s a final stab-in-the-dark
a “none of the above” two-fingers up to the lanyard class
It’s a rejection of the hectoring public-sector management professionals
the former lobbyist carpetbaggers and cabal of bland political consultants that now passes for a complete ballot of mainstream candidates
Reform will now have to prove themselves in local and regional centres of power
But Farage isn’t a competent administrator nor an effective great helmsman of state who will get things done
He is a signifier — the symbolic opposite of grey
stodgy Labour — and the vote is a rejection of the moribund Westminster system in its totality
And yet he now sits astride the Left and Right of British politics like the Colossus of Rhodes in Alan Partridge get-up
Gramscian Leftist such as Raymond Williams might call a national-popular “structure of feeling”
Trump is in the White House; progressive-liberal norms are breaking down
The world redivides into competing geopolitical power-blocs
And the demand from below isn’t for the kind of globalised openness and liberty provided by free markets
neo-statist revival that is building national resilience
while the rest of the political class seems hopelessly out of tune
He stalks Labour and the Conservatives for the easy prey of their disaffected bases
and it hasn’t taken too hard a shake of the branch to cause many-an-apple to fall into his basket
All of the omens for the next general election point to a re-run of 2019 in which Labour’s Red Wall fell to Boris Johnson
Some commentators hopefully defined that election as a permanent realignment
While the project was eventually sacrificed on the altar of Johnson’s myriad personal failings
2019 indicated that the working classes were tired of being told by radical liberals
cultural-educational elite (whom they have had the misfortune of encountering in their day-to-day lives) that everything is the fault of a distant
kleptocratic financial-industrial elite (whom they have rarely
But Johnson faced Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party
Today’s Labour behemoth is run by a different wing of urban managerial progressives who have abandoned any semblance of narrative
They’re intensely relaxed about the nature of the beast
And the Faragists have stolen their clothes while they were bathing
By Aris Roussinos
Bien pensant opinion might baulk at the apparent contradictions of a Left-ish approach to industrial policy and robust state interventionism
combined with a Right-wing approach to immigration and culture war traditionalism
entirely coherent; its planned restrictions on the labour supply
and its communitarian ethos are even complementary to postwar
This now is the centre ground of British politics
Dominic Cummings saw this when he told followers of a “crude heuristic” — that the average voter is “national socialist”
harbouring an unconscious political syncretism that mixes redistributive economics way to the Left of many Labour MPs
Labour and the Conservatives have both lost
buttoned-up local civil servants will soon be welcoming a new Reform cohort into Town Halls and regional corridors of power: an Olympic boxer; a former Tory Dame and Miss UK finalist; a cavalcade of political renegades
Whether a hodgepodge of inexperienced minor celebrities
former Thatcherite ultras and anti-migrant big statists can form a cohesive political whole remains to be seen
What matters is that this unlikely bunch have upended the duopoly
big tent populism is just what the doctor ordered
Despotic Inroad is a pseudonym for a freelance writer and journalist
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‘Dogfight’ between Labour and Reform UK is turning ugly after Nigel Farage’s party put immigration centre stage
It’s lunchtime on St George’s Day and the Royal pub in Runcorn is a festival of flags, fags and Farage. “I’m sorry,” says Mike Kneale, a painter, as he explains which party he will back in this week’s crucial byelection: “But it’s Nigel Farage.”
The Reform UK leader’s Cheshire cat grin leaps out from billboards and doormats all over this constituency, where his party is odds-on to win its fifth MP and deliver a blow to Keir Starmer
It would be the first time in half a century that Runcorn has elected a non-Labour MP
Labour won Runcorn and Helsby, on the industrial banks of the River Mersey, with a thumping 14,696-vote majority only 10 months ago. But a drunken assault by the sitting MP Mike Amesbury means its 16th safest seat is up for grabs and the “dogfight” between Starmer’s party and Reform is getting ugly
“Labour are fucked,” says Kneale, 52, drinking a £1.95 pint of Foster’s beneath a giant St George’s flag. “I’ve been Labour all my life but never
On Kneale’s long list of grievances are immigration
and cuts to the winter fuel allowance – a big issue in a constituency where one in five people are over 65
View image in fullscreenMike Kneale in the Royal pub: ‘I’ve been Labour all my life but never
ever again.’ Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian“We need to stop the fucking boats
The pensioners need winter fuel allowance back and if you look around the town we’ve got barbers
You go try buy a pair of shoes in Runcorn – you can’t!”
Farage’s party has made immigration centre stage in this overwhelmingly white British corner of Cheshire
A Reform leaflet claims “Labour’s candidate welcomes the boats”
alongside a picture of young men crowded on an inflatable dinghy
“Welcome to Runcorn & Helsby,” it adds
The latest Home Office figures suggest 345 asylum seekers were being housed in temporary accommodation in the two local authorities that span this constituency – representing 0.37% of the population
Most of those asylum seekers are in hotels such as Daresbury Park
a once-lavish wedding venue that some see as a symbol of local decline
“It was a really posh hotel at one time,” laments a 68-year-old man
as he leaves Reform’s makeshift campaign centre in a Runcorn shopping centre
View image in fullscreenThe former Daresbury Park hotel on the edge of Runcorn
which now houses asylum seekers in temporary accommodation
Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The GuardianA retired engineer
he usually voted Labour but was tempted by the hard-right party due to its tougher stance on immigration – “I’m not against legal asylum seekers [but] illegal ones are a different matter” – and because Starmer’s party “hit the pensioners”
disliking his closeness to Donald Trump and his plans for the NHS
Amid growing signs of a Reform win, the Labour candidate, Karen Shore, has promised to close Daresbury Park to asylum seekers – a tactic described by Zarah Sultana
the former Labour MP who now sits as an independent
Shore admitted regrets over her hotel pledge
“It was not coming from a place of prejudice at all – that’s far from the person I am,” she said
adding: “I accept that the tone of it could’ve been slightly different – and the fact it was exploited by the populists.”
The former teacher and local councillor said Reform’s immigration-focused campaign had “demonise[d] people” to “create fear and scapegoat people”
It’s for them to say whether they’re racist or not
“But the thing that annoys me most about it is it’s not the experience of local people on the estate
and where there are asylum seekers living there
The danger for Labour is that its perceived lurch to the right alienates its own voters while failing to attract those leaning towards Reform
“Immigrants are not the problem,” says Faiza Ali
selling perfume from a stall in Runcorn Shopping City
Ali says she has been left depressed by the constant stream of “stop the boats” rhetoric on local social media groups
“People that are uneducated about why the UK’s in debt are focusing on the wrong thing … It’s becoming a more racist vibe.”
Fifteen candidates are contesting the first byelection of Starmer’s premiership
Publicly, Pochin is careful to guard against complacency before Thursday’s poll. She would need a colossal swing to unseat Labour, which won 53% of the vote last year to Reform’s 18%. Her party comes into this contest almost tied with Labour in most national opinion polls but it has by far the most popular leader
“I’ve never seen a response like it,” says one campaigner stacking leaflets in Reform’s Runcorn HQ
who said the Conservatives were haemorrhaging so much support they could struggle to get 5% of the vote (compared with 16% last year)
“Thirty to 50 people a day are coming into the shop,” he adds
“People in really challenging areas are coming out of their houses and giving us the thumbs up.”
Those planning to vote Reform are said to roughly fall into two groups: “those who set their alarm for work in the morning and are angry at those who don’t – and those who don’t”
View image in fullscreenReform UK’s pop-up shop in Runcorn. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The GuardianThis coalition of workers and workless could be enough to clinch victory if enough Labour voters stay at home.
Not everyone, though, is falling under Farage’s spell. “I think Reform are absolute scumbags,” says Jay, 49, a mature student heading into Savers discount store. “It’s a shame they gain popularity on lies. People just hear things about people coming over illegally and think Reform is going to do something about it.”
Phillip Allen, 80, says he will vote Labour, adding that Starmer’s party is getting the blame for inheriting a mess: “I think voting for Reform is a protest vote.”
In Runcorn Shopping City, an exasperated Janet Spearritt, 75, sums up the mood among many: “I’ve got my postal ballot in here,” she says, gesturing to her handbag. “And I’m in two minds whether to post it or tear it in half.” This disillusionment was not uncommon among voters who spoke to the Guardian – but for Spearritt it cut deep.
“I’ve been a Labour supporter all my life but I hear what they have to say about this business with women and I’m just at a loss.
“I’ve voted all my life because of what women went through. If I don’t post it it’s a wasted vote, and if someone gets in I don’t want to then I might regret it. But who’s worth voting for?”
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey says they are now "the party of middle England" as the party secures control of three councils
Keir Starmer says Labour's by-election loss is "disappointing"
while Nigel Farage says today "marks the end of two-party politics"
Labour narrowly holds three mayoral races in North Tyneside, the West of England, and Doncaster - but loses control of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty to the Conservatives
These are really bad results for the Labour party, writes the BBC's chief political correspondent in seven key takeaways
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she's "determined to win back" trust
as her party loses more than 600 councillors
Watch: BBC's Henry Zeffman on what comes after Reform's by-election win
Nigel Farage celebrating with Reform UK activists in Stafford earlier today
It's been a dizzying day of electoral coverage as results poured in from 23 councils
six mayoral contests and one by-election across England
The elections marked a big test for the Labour government as the first vote to take place since the general election in July 2024
it was difficult night for both Labour and the Conservatives as Reform made sweeping wins
Reform leader Nigel Farage said his party had replaced the Tories as "the main opposition party in government" after Reform gained control of 10 councils, won two mayoral contest and gained their fifth MP in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by the narrowest of margins
It was also a difficult day for the Conservatives
who lost more than 670 councillors and won just one mayoral election in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough as Tory leader Kemi Badenoch pledged to "win back" the public's trust
the Liberal Democrats were left in a celebratory mood - with leader Ed Davey declaring the Lib Dems as "the new party of Middle England" - after taking control of three councils and dozens of seats
We'll be closing our live coverage now, but you can read our write up of the day's events here - or get the full election results on our dedicated page
There's also a selection of news and analysis below:
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform take control of West Northamptonshire from Conservativespublished at 21:26 British Summer Time 2 May21:26 BST 2 MayBreakingAnd we've now got the final results for this election
This takes the total number of councils they have control over to ten
The party has a total of 39 seats on the council
while the Conservatives have dropped by 31 seats to just 16
Labour has lost nine councillors with just nine seats
while the Liberal Democrats have increased their number of seats to four
The council has so far declared 70 of 76 seats
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingOne more election result to go...published at 21:04 British Summer Time 2 May21:04 BST 2 MayWe're still waiting for the results in West Northamptonshire to come through
the final one to declare of today's 23 local council election results
Reform UK took control in North Northamptonshire a short while ago
We'll bring you the results as soon as we get them
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform gains two mayors while Labour clings on to three - a recappublished at 20:24 British Summer Time 2 May20:24 BST 2 MayImage source
said her election marked a "new dawn in British politics"
While we wait for the result from the last council to declare - West Northamptonshire - here's a recap of the six mayoral contests:
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform take North Norhamptonshire from Conservativespublished at 20:20 British Summer Time 2 May20:20 BST 2 MayBreakingWe've just got the results for North Northamptonshire Council
This takes the total number of councils they have control over to nine
while the Tories have dropped by 29 seats and have 10 so far
Labour has lost 10 councillors and have just two seats
while the Greens are up by four to have five seats
The council has not yet finished reporting with 53 out of 66 seats declared so far
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingNo overall majority in Buckinghamshirepublished at 20:17 British Summer Time 2 May20:17 BST 2 MayBreakingNearly all of the 92 seats in Buckinghamshire Council have been declared and no party has secured an overall majority
have 42 councillors so far - a loss of 30 seats
The Liberal Democrats have gained 18 - with a total of 26 councillors so far
while Labour has a total of five councillors
Greens have also gained two councillors in the area
Reform has gained 3 new councillors in the area
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingSeven things we have learnt from this electionpublished at 20:04 British Summer Time 2 May20:04 BST 2 MayHenry ZeffmanChief political correspondent
The election results are still being counted
but this patchwork of different contests across England has been truly fascinating
throwing up all sorts of lessons - here are seven things we have learnt so far:
Want to know more? Read Henry's full analysis of the election so far
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingResult expected for Buckinghamshire Councilpublished at 19:55 British Summer Time 2 May19:55 BST 2 MayA result for the election at Buckinghamshire Council is imminent
We'll update you as soon as we have the result
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLatest results as Liberal Democrats take control of three councilspublished at 19:39 British Summer Time 2 May19:39 BST 2 MayLiberal Democrats win control of three councils
taking dozens of seats from Conservatives:
Reform UK beat Conservatives and Labour in several areas
many councils have no party in overall control:
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform UK gain Doncaster from Labourpublished at 19:02 British Summer Time 2 May19:02 BST 2 MayBreakingReform gains Doncaster Council from Labour
with 37 of the council's 55 seats declared
while Labour loses 21 seats and has five councillors so far
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingNo overall control in Cornwallpublished at 18:52 British Summer Time 2 May18:52 BST 2 MayBreakingAll results have now been declared in Cornwall Council and no party has a majority - this is the same as the previous election
Reform have gained 28 new seats in the area
with the Liberal Democrats following closely behind with 13 new seats and a total of 26 councillors
The Green Party has also gained two seats in the area
while Labour lost one to have four overall
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLiberal Democrats gain overall majority in Shropshirepublished at 18:32 British Summer Time 2 May18:32 BST 2 MayBreakingMost of the results are in for Shropshire Council and the Lib Dems have gained an overall majority with 39 councillors - this is an increase of 24 seats for the party
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingStarmer on course to be a one-term prime minister
Badenoch sayspublished at 18:30 British Summer Time 2 May18:30 BST 2 MayConservative leader Kemi Badenoch spoke earlier today in Peterborough alongside Paul Bristow
who won the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral election this afternoon
She told Conservative councillors who have lost their seats that she is "sincerely sorry" and that while the public are "fed up" with Labour
"What I saw everywhere I campaigned was that people are fed up with the Labour government," she said
"They were angry about winter fuel payments
but they are still not yet ready to trust us."
Badenoch added today's election results show that Prime Minister Keir Starmer is "on course to be a one-term prime minister"
"We have a big job to do to rebuild trust with the public
adding that her job is to get the party back to being a credible alternative to Labour."
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLib Dems believe they have won majority in Shropshirepublished at 18:17 British Summer Time 2 May18:17 BST 2 MayElizabeth GlinkaPolitical editor
The Liberal Democrats believe they have done enough to take control of Shropshire Council and will win 42 seats on the authority
Thirty-eight is required for an overall majority
Counting is ongoing and official declarations are yet to take place
Reform has exceeded expectations and is currently the second largest party on 13 seats
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingReform well in the lead as Doncaster reaches halfway markpublished at 18:11 British Summer Time 2 May18:11 BST 2 MayLucy AshtonBBC Sheffield political reporter
We are about halfway through the Doncaster Council count and so far
compared to Labour’s four and the Conservative’s two
who is married to former local Labour MP Caroline Flint
was among those who lost his seat to Reform
Doncaster has a directly-elected Mayor though
so there will not be any discussions about no overall control or majority parties
will form a cabinet and has the authority to push through most council decisions
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingWhat did Labour promise on energy bills?published at 18:04 British Summer Time 2 May18:04 BST 2 MayBy Rupert Carey
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingFarage suggests Reform will cut DEI jobs
working from homepublished at 17:57 British Summer Time 2 May17:57 BST 2 MayReform leader Nigel Farage says his party will be "radical
a breath of fresh air in county hall" after taking control of several local councils
He tells BBC Look North that while they "can't wave magic wands"
Reform will have a "very different approach to local government"
"There is too much wasteful expenditure
we want to try and change that," says Farage
I suggest you look for another job."
DEI is a set of principles designed to make people of various backgrounds – including socio-economic class
gender and physical ability – feel supported
They have been a cause of recent controversy in US politics
where President Donald Trump - who Farage is a vocal supporter of - has aggressively sought to end them and "restore merit-based opportunity"
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingA profound moment in modern British politicspublished at 17:48 British Summer Time 2 May17:48 BST 2 MayChris MasonPolitical editor
Demolishing the duopoly in British politics
The formation of the Social Democratic Party in 1981
when the Conservative share of the vote was 9% to Labour’s 14%
big majorities at Westminster for the Conservatives or Labour
In 2017 the big two in the Commons swept up 82.4% of the vote combined
Perspective should triumph over breathlessness
But it is also true that if yesterday was a test to establish if Reform could match their opinion poll ratings with actual votes they have actually surpassed that
This then is a profound moment in our contemporary politics whatever lies ahead
the Conservatives and others will be obliged to respond to it
Senior Reform figures believe the primary driving motivation behind their surge
that most powerful of human emotions: betrayal; betrayal
two things to observe: the perceived competence
to fuel further rise or fall and the reaction from their rivals it provokes
And a final thought - if English politics feels splintered and noisy
remember Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland too contribute further to the cacophony of political voices demanding our attention and endorsement
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLatest England council results at a glancepublished at 17:39 British Summer Time 2 May17:39 BST 2 MayWe've seen a flurry of new council results coming in over the last few hours
only Reform has taken control of a council from another party
Here's a full breakdown by party of the results so far:
There are currently seven councils with no overall control: Devon
Shareclose panelShare pageCopy linkAbout sharingLib Dems take control of Cambridgeshire County Councilpublished at 17:29 British Summer Time 2 May17:29 BST 2 MayBreakingAll of the results are in and
the Liberal Democrats have taken control of Cambridgeshire
Labour now holds five seats after losing four
No party had overall control of the council prior to the election
Labour candidate insists seat is ‘definitely still in play’ in first electoral test of Keir Starmer’s government
Labour’s candidate in Thursday’s Runcorn and Helsby byelection has insisted the contest is “definitely still in play” as Reform UK became odds-on favourite to win
Two polls have suggested Nigel Farage’s party is on track to overturn Labour’s 14,700 majority in the first electoral test of Keir Starmer’s premiership
It would mark one of the biggest swings in voter opinion in recent UK political history and would be a significant blow to Starmer in one of Labour’s safest seats
told the Guardian the reception had been “really positive” and victory was still in sight
“It’s going to be close and we need to make sure we work it until the end,” she said
Labour’s campaign in Runcorn and Helsby attracted criticism after Shore launched a Facebook petition to close “the asylum hotel” – a tactic described by Zarah Sultana
who had “warmly welcomed” asylum seekers to the area while she was deputy council leader
denied it was a “cynical” attempt to stem the flow of votes to Reform UK
She said: “I accept that the tone of it could’ve been slightly different – and the fact it was exploited by the populists.”
I spent half my life fighting prejudice and discrimination and I just can’t abide some of the rhetoric that comes out of them,” she said
it was controversial at the beginning of the campaign
and reflecting on it [we] could have handled it slightly differently but I still stand by the fact that we do need to close them.”
said placing asylum seekers in a hotel was “no way to live” and that “we need to do better than that for people”
Senior Labour figures have sought to manage expectations ahead of polling day on Thursday, with the prime minister admitting it would be “tough” and Ellie Reeves, the party chair, accusing the Conservatives of “gifting” the seat to Farage by not campaigning
Bookmakers have made Farage’s party odds-on favourite to win the Cheshire byelection
which was triggered by the resignation of Mike Amesbury
the former deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester council
said: “We knew at the beginning of this campaign that it was going to be challenging and difficult because of the national picture and the fact it’s a byelection – there’s 15 candidates
“We came in knowing that it was going to be a slog but I’m the kind of person who doesn’t give up and I’m in it to win it.”
houses of multiple occupation and Turkish barbers
Shore said her rival’s campaign had “demonise[d] people” to “create fear and scapegoat people”
It’s for them to say whether they’re racist or not.”
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It’s been an eventful day – and there are still many more local election results to go
Nigel Farage’s Reform party clinched the win in what had been a Labour safe seat by just six votes – securing a fifth parliamentarian and their first female MP
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Red Arrows flypast commences as Britain honours 80th VE Day anniversary
Reform UK has claimed victory in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election by a record-breakingly tight margin after being forced to wait for a full recount in the Cheshire constituency
The party's Sarah Pochin saw off a challenge from Labour's Karen Shore by just six votes
marking the closest-fought by-election in modern political history
which was called after Mike Amesbury was handed a suspended sentence following a boozy bust-up in Frodsham
will come as a hammer blow to Sir Keir Starmer's depleted Labour Party
Pochin was confirmed as Runcorn & Helsby's next MP after securing 12,645 votes
snatching Starmer's 49th-safest seat in a knife-edge contest
Sarah Pochin saw off a challenge from Labour's Karen Shore by just six votes
Labour's Karen Shore trailed narrowly in second place with 12,639 votes
There were also 85 ballots rejected after the full recount
Pochin's victory also ensures Reform UK returns its Commons contingent to five after Nigel Farage briefly reduced his ranks to just four following Rupert Lowe's suspension in March
Despite Farage declaring victory in Runcorn & Helsby shortly before 4am
the result was only officially declared at 6am after a lengthy recount
LATEST ON REFORM'S LOCAL ELECTION TRIBULATIONS:
the Reform UK leader said: “What it sends is a message not just from here but across the country that we are now the opposition to the Labour Party
and actually in most parts of the country now
Pochin added: "We have made history tonight here in Runcorn and Helsby
Research conducted by Electoral Calculus suggests Reform UK would hoover up 427 seats if Runcorn's 17 per cent swing was emulated in a General Election
a Labour Party spokesman appeared to take a bizarre swipe at the Tories following the shock defeat
He said: “While Labour has suffered an extremely narrow defeat
the shock is that the Conservative vote has collapsed."
Labour also argued that the circumstances leading to the by-election made the "difficult" challenge "even harder"
Conservative candidate Sean Houlston just about managed to cling onto his deposit
with his 2,341 votes putting the Tories just 27 votes ahead of the Green Party
A Tory Party spokesman laid the blame at Starmer's feet
warning Labour MPs will "rightfully question his leadership" after the Prime Minister was "roundly rejected" in Runcorn & Helsby
former Conservative councillor Pochin took the Cheshire constituency by just six votes
wiping out Labour's majority of more than 14,000 from last year's general election
The by-election was called following the resignation of Mike Amesbury
who resigned after his conviction for assaulting a constituent
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LONDON — Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK surged into the lead in local elections across England and grabbed one of Labour’s safest parliamentary seats
in a contest that upended the country’s traditional two-party politics
Amid a slate of local votes that saw Reform eat into both Labour and Tory areas
Farage’s candidate Sarah Pochin beat Labour in the Runcorn and Helsby House of Commons by-election
The result put Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s governing center-left party on notice less than a year after it was elected.
It was the most dramatic result of the night, overturning a massive Labour majority in the district and heralding a story of wider successes for Farage’s insurgent political force.
Reform had won 577 council seats across England
having previously held none of the 1,600 being contested in Thursday’s elections.
The results saw Reform take control of a string of local government authorities in England and win two contests for regional mayor
The centrist Liberal Democrats also had a good night
“We are now the opposition party in the U.K
and the Tories are a waste of space,” Farage declared
As the veteran Reform leader celebrated, Starmer faced questions over whether Labour’s governing strategy was already doomed after just 10 months in office.
The results also provoked deep soul-searching for the main Conservative opposition, which showed no sign of recovering under new leader Kemi Badenoch after the party was brutally ousted from power last year.
It was the victory in Runcorn that set the tone. Winning by just six votes after a recount of ballots, Reform’s Pochin overturned a 14,696 Labour majority secured at the general election last July and granted a fresh boost to Farage’s right-wing populists.
After the early-morning recount at the DCBL stadium, Farage was jubilant, hailing a “huge night for Reform.” Reform won by 12,645 votes to Labour’s 12,639.
Labour swept to national power in a landslide in July but is now trailing Reform in some polls. Starmer told reporters on Friday that he “gets” the message from voters in Runcorn.
“We were elected in last year to bring about change,” he said, adding: “I am determined that we will go further and faster on the change that people want to see.”
Labour Party chairman Ellie Reeves was meanwhile in a fighting mood. “There’s been a lot of noise from Reform, a lot of hype from Reform, but actually people will now, I think, take a closer look at some of their policies,” she told Sky News.
The results of the by-election — held after the previous Labour MP was convicted of assaulting a constituent — came amid a crop of local elections in England which have begun to reveal the scale of the Eurosceptic, anti-immigration Reform party’s challenge to both Labour and the Tories.
There were some limited scraps of relief for nervous Labour strategists panicked by the rise of Reform UK in the polls. Labour won key mayoral races in North Tyneside, the West of England and Doncaster — though Reform came second in all three.
The closely-watched Greater Lincolnshire mayoral election saw Reform’s Andrea Jenkyns — a former Tory MP — comfortably see off her Conservative and Labour opponents.
Jenkyns won the newly-created position with 104,133 votes, with the Conservatives trailing on 64,585 votes and Labour a distant third. In a highly-charged victory speech, she took aim at the “negativity and soul-destroying” campaigning tactics of her opponents — and blasted asylum policies in what she called Labour’s “soft touch Britain.”
“I say ‘No’ to putting people in hotels,” Jenkyns said. “Tents are good enough for France, they should be good enough for here in Britain.”
There were ominous signs for both main parties by Friday afternoon. Reform seized full control of Durham county council as Labour shed councillors on the local authority. And Staffordshire saw Reform leapfrog the Conservatives to take control.
The Conservatives, in national government just last year before suffering a kicking in the general election, were most vulnerable in this set of local elections. They have already lost hundreds of councillors across the country, with counting continuing Friday evening.
In Kent, the Tories have shed the majority of their county council seats to Reform in what the ousted Conservative leader of the authority called an “apocalyptic” night.
The seats in play this week were last fought in 2021, at the height of the then-Tory government’s bounce in popularity over a successful Covid vaccine program.
A Labour spokesperson said of the Runcorn result Friday morning: “By-elections are always difficult for the party in government and the events which led to this one being called made it even harder.
“Voters are still rightly furious with the state of the country after 14 years of failure and clearly expect the government to move faster.”
The Conservatives shot back in their own statement: “This result is a damning verdict on Keir Starmer’s leadership which has led to Labour losing a safe seat.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled her latest fiscal plan — and dug the ax in deeper on social security.
British police investigate electrical substation fire that brought Europe’s busiest airport to a standstill.
Criminal inquiry into former Scottish first minister has now concluded, Police Scotland said.
The U.K. prime minister hopes for a “positive outcome” of U.S.-Ukraine talks — and is readying a Saturday meeting of allies willing to police a cease-fire deal.
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Exclusive: Curtice warns that Starmer’s failings have opened the door for Reform
while fellow pollster Luke Tryl suggests the Tories only have 12 months to turn things around
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He also suggested that Labour MPs are now right to fear Reform and Nigel Farage more than Kemi Badenoch and the Tories
with the beleaguered Conservative Party leader already facing plots to have her removed
executive director of polling organisation More in Common
has warned that the Tories have just 12 months to turn things around before being consigned to irrelevance
His warning came after The Independent revealed that Tory MPs are already plotting to remove leader Kemi Badenoch
The revelation led to newly elected Tory mayor for Peterborough and Cambridgeshire
the only success story for the party this week
Meanwhile, Labour’s woes are set to get worse amid revelations that Mr Farage intends to use Reform’s control of 10 councils to launch a series of taxpayer funded legal challenges on net zero policies and housing migrants to tie Sir Keir Starmer’s government in knots.
Writing for The Independent, Sir John pointed out that Labour had “little to lose” at the local elections last week because they did very badly when the same seats were last contested in 2021.
Nevertheless, he pointed out that Labour still managed to lose two thirds of the seats it was defending.
Sir John noted: “Labour’s own vote was in free fall. Despite having done so poorly in the local elections four years ago, the party’s vote fell on average since then by as much as nine points.
“Crucially, it collapsed most of all in the party’s heartlands, limited though they were in number on Thursday. In seats Labour was defending its vote fell on average by as much as 19 points.”
He added that unlike the Tories, the strength of Reform’s advance made “little difference on how far the Labour vote dropped”.
In seats Reform did poorly in, Labour maintained its support, while in seats Mr Farage’s party was strong in Labour’s vote dropped an average of 11.5 per cent.
He noted that “it is also potentially a sign that disappointment with Labour’s record in office is particularly marked among some of its core supporters” with rows over two child benefit, removing winter fuel payment from pensioners, slashing disability benefits and not taking a firm stance against Israel over Gaza.
Sir John added: “The pattern was devastating. Labour’s collapse left the door open to Reform to take many a seat from the party, albeit sometimes by quite a narrow margin.
“Labour’s problem on Thursday was not simply the appeal of Reform. It was also itself. The party has seemingly lost the confidence of many of its heartland voters.”
Meanwhile, things look even worse for the Tories with Mr Tryl claiming they “are at the moment of maximum danger”.
He said: “What you're seeing now is former Tory bastions like Kent where they have lost almost all their seats, going from having almost total control to being a third or fourth party.
“You've also got the fact that institutionally councillors make up a big part of your base. Losing so many seats in the heartlands ... you can't get that manpower back. It furthers the risk that they sort of just slowly or, in the case of Thursday night, quite dramatically slide into irrelevance.”
He also noted that Reform are now in second place in most Labour and Lib Dem seats giving them an edge as change candidates in the future.
He said that the only advantage the Tories have is that they have many more MPs but with question marks over Ms Badenoch, he said: “When I go around the country many people don’t know who she is.”
Giving the party just 12 months to turn things around, he said: “I think they have until next year's local elections, Holyrood elections and Senedd elections to show that they're still relevant.”
But the politician who represented the only major success story of the night for the Tories, new Peterborough and Cambridgeshire mayor, Paul Bristow has urged his party to “step up” and “stop the constant infighting” with changes of leader.
He admitted that as a former Peterborough MP a “personal vote” for him “more than the party brand” helped get him over the line.
“Just stop doing this,” he said to plotters. “Just look like we're up for it. Acknowledge that this was the worst defeat the Conservative Party has ever faced, hold your hands up. Understand that we messed up for the final two years of the last government, but get out there and win.”
He argued that politicians now “need to make brands of themselves” not just rely on their parties to succeed.
“People like [shadow cabinet members] Andrew Griffiths, Chris Philp and Robert Jenrick, they're making brands for themselves, and they look like they're up for it. Kemi has now started to do that as well.”
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
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says top pollster John Curtice","description":"Exclusive: Curtice warns that Starmer’s failings have opened the door for Reform
Backbenchers accuse PM and his team of complacency
questioning policies and why he did not visit Runcorn
Keir Starmer is under fire from Labour MPs after losing his first byelection in government to Nigel Farage’s party by just six votes
Backbenchers have accused the prime minister and his team of complacency about the Runcorn and Helsby contest and questioned why he did not visit the constituency during the campaign
One senior Labour MP said: “I was quite shocked at how complacent the campaign was
especially in Runcorn but nationally as well
“Everyone seemed convinced we were going to win by a reasonably comfortable margin
The NHS message does not work against Farage
or the fact that Keir’s unpopularity was brought up on almost every door.”
The result has prompted fresh criticism of the government’s decision to implement cuts to winter fuel allowance and disability benefits
said the party needed to “admit that some mistakes were made
Speaking on Times Radio she said the result in Runcorn would “throw up some big questions about the strategy and the operation”
A second Labour MP said: “The boys in No 10 should spend less time briefing about who’s driving the train
and more time actually getting on with building the tracks.”
The same MP added: “People haven’t felt the change we promised and they are fed up after 14 years of a hard time under the Tories
They will start looking for answers elsewhere
“I worry we are taking the people we built the party to represent – the working class – for granted
We were elected to fix public services and raise living standards and we’ve really got to start doing that.”
A third Labour MP said: “It’s all very well for No 10 to say we’ve got to keep delivering
The problem is that it’s the stuff we’ve delivered that people hate.”
Farage hailed a “big moment” in British politics after Reform UK won the byelection. Its paper-thin victory, the smallest majority at a parliamentary byelection since the end of the second world war, was confirmed overnight after a recount
Reform also won hundreds of council seats in England, winning Staffordshire and Lincolnshire councils from the Conservatives and taking control of Durham county council
Labour retained the North Tyneside mayoralty by just 444 votes over Reform’s John Falkenstein
0:40Nigel Farage says Reform is now main opposition party after local election gains – videoNeither Starmer nor Kemi Badenoch
visited the Runcorn and Helsby constituency during the campaign
The prime minister admitted the byelection result was “disappointing” and told reporters on Friday: “My response is we get it
We were elected in last year to bring about change.” He vowed to go “further and faster” in delivering it
He defended the decision to cut winter fuel allowance
telling Sky News that the choices made in the budget “were tough decisions
A government source said that while “everyone knew it was super-close”
Labour figures believed they would win Runcorn and Helsby because “the last 10 days or so the [canvassing] returns were quite good”
“You have to keep telling yourself that Reform doesn’t necessarily show up in the data,” the source said
“You end up with a big chunk of non-voters [who] aren’t contactable and don’t show up in polling.”
Another government source conceded it had been a “very strong result” for Reform but argued that the circumstances of the byelection made it very difficult for Labour. It was triggered after the incumbent Labour MP, Mike Amesbury, violently assaulted a constituent in a drunken late-night row
and people are going to be pissed off about having to go out and vote,” the source said
Labour’s losses have thrown the spotlight on Starmer’s popularity ratings, which plummeted after the general election in July
One Green party campaigner who knocked on doors in Runcorn and for council elections in Lancashire said they picked up unprecedented levels of dislike for Labour – for Starmer in particular
“In Runcorn, the Labour message was, ‘Vote Labour or get Nigel Farage,’ and quite a lot of people seemed to go
I’ll take Farage.’ I’ve been doing this for a decade and I’ve never seen this level of dislike for Labour
particularly from people who were willing to give them a chance last year and feel they were given false hope,” the activist said
‘Are you Labour?’ When I told him I was a Green he calmed down.”
MPs on the Labour left publicly criticised Starmer and said his government’s agenda was to blame for the defeat
the veteran Labour leftwinger and longest-serving female MP in the Commons
said on X: “Labour leadership saying the party will go further and faster in the same direction
it is our current direction that is the problem.”
posted on X that “the first 10 months haven’t been good enough or what the people want”
Loyalist Labour MPs said their party should not be obsessing about the politics of the next election when it had a huge majority and four years left in this parliament
and should instead be focusing on good policy
We have a gigantic majority and acres of time before the next election,” one said
Reform UK has pulled off a historic upset in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection
snatching the seat from Labour by just six votes—a dramatic outcome that signals a growing threat to the two-party system and poses new questions for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership
The razor-thin victory came after a tense recount in the early hours of Friday morning
ultimately confirming Reform candidate Sarah Pochin as the winner with 12,645 votes to Labour’s 12,639
The result represents a remarkable 17% swing away from Labour and marks the first time in more than five decades that the Cheshire constituency will not be represented by a Labour MP
The contest set a postwar record for the slimmest margin of victory in a parliamentary byelection
With the result confirmed just after 6 a.m
jubilant Reform supporters hailed it as a breakthrough moment
while Labour aides left the count in silence
“This is more than just a win—it’s a statement,” said Nigel Farage
“We’ve seen massive shifts from Labour in the north
the political implications are significant
For Reform UK—a party often dismissed as a fringe populist movement—the win delivers their fifth seat in Parliament and solidifies their presence ahead of the next general election
the collapse of the Conservative vote was equally startling
The Tories plummeted to just 7%—a dramatic fall from the 16% they secured in the 2024 general election
The byelection was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury
who was convicted earlier this year for assaulting a constituent
saddled with the fallout of Amesbury’s conduct and a resurgent Reform party determined to exploit the discontent
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who campaigned personally in Runcorn and across key local races
framed the contest as a referendum on the establishment parties and on issues like immigration
Reform candidates hammered Labour for its decision to cut the winter fuel allowance and for its handling of prisoner release policies
In a constituency that is overwhelmingly white and working-class
Voters expressed concerns over asylum seekers
so-called “houses of multiple occupancy,” and even the rising number of Turkish barbers—signs of demographic change that Reform portrayed as threatening to British culture
a former Conservative councillor and magistrate
thanked supporters and took aim at both major parties
“Enough is enough—enough of Conservative failure
the people of Runcorn have stood up for their values
and I hope this inspires the rest of the country to do the same.”
The result will be particularly troubling for Starmer
Though byelections often serve as outlets for protest votes
this result underscores the vulnerability of even Labour strongholds to a right-wing insurgency
who left the venue without addressing the media
had faced criticism during the campaign for launching a petition to close a hotel housing asylum seekers
Some observers saw the move as a misguided attempt to outflank Reform on immigration
A Labour spokesperson acknowledged the challenges: “Byelections are always tough for the party in government
The circumstances that led to this contest were deeply damaging
and voters are still rightly furious about the state of the country after 14 years of failure
But what’s also clear is that the Conservative vote has collapsed.”
Turnout reached 46.3%—a notably high figure for a byelection
which many attributed to the “Farage factor.” As the night wore on
both Labour and Reform campaigners described the result as “too close to call,” though Reform officials appeared increasingly confident
speculation grew as media crews gathered by the entrance in anticipation of Farage’s arrival—only to learn he was still waiting in a nearby car
apparently awaiting confirmation of the final numbers
Farage emerged to claim the moment as a turning point in British politics
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How will Labour fare in its first big electoral test since taking power
Runcorn, a town in Cheshire, has not been the most politically interesting place in recent memory. In fact Runcorn and Helsby has been a safe Labour seat for decades. Then the MP Mike Amesbury resigned after punching a constituent, triggering a byelection. Now Reform UK are nipping at Labour’s heels in the battle for the ward
Helen Pidd has been out in the town to find out what voters think about the government and Nigel Farage
She spoke to voters who are angry at Reform’s tactics of focusing on migration
She visits Labour’s almost empty electoral nerve centre and notices the optimism in Reform’s office
Even a passing Liberal candidate is struck by the efficiency of the Reform machine and the apparent enthusiasm for it
And she also heads to a hotel that has been housing asylum seekers to see how it has become a flashpoint in local politics
The Guardian’s political correspondent, Kiran Stacey, tells Helen how the byelection may show how much of a risk Reform could be to Labour
and how the mayoral and local elections could play for the Conservatives
What will they tell us about the state of politics in the UK today
Labour descended into panic today after Nigel Farage triggered a political earthquake by seizing Runcorn & Helsby in a dramatic by-election
A jubilant Mr Farage hailed a 'big moment' as the Cheshire seat was secured by just six votes following hours of delay for nailbiting recounts
local elections are seeing the insurgents rack up huge gains across England
As results from yesterday's contests started to flow in
Reform's Dame Andrea Jenkyns romped home as the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor with an enormous 40,000 majority over the Tories
The party is also on track to control the county council
as its national poll surge is translated into real votes and real power
Reform only narrowly missed out on having a mayor in North Tyneside
cutting a Labour majority of almost 14,000 down to just 444
where Labour's Ros Jones closed out Mr Farage's party by just 698 votes
with the right-wing parties together taking 57 per cent of the vote
Ms Jones launched an extraordinary tirade at Sir Keir after the announcement
berating him for not 'listening' to unrest over cuts to winter fuel allowance and the national insurance hike
MPs quickly joined the demands for a change in direction from the premier
saying his leadership has not been 'good enough'
Sir Keir is expected to respond by unveiling a new crackdown on immigration soon
and has faced pressure from some quarters to overhaul the government's stance on Net Zero
There have been more rumblings from Conservatives about the possibility of a merger on the Right
Reform were also a shock second in the West of England
where Labour held the mayoralty in what was meant to be a two-horse race between them and the Greens
In the coming hours Mr Farage's outfit is favourite to win the Hull & East Yorks mayoralty and is expected to take hundreds of council seats surrendered by the Tories
The areas up for grabs are traditionally true-blue and were last decided at Boris Johnson's peak in 2021
Mike Amesbury won Runcorn with a huge majority of 14,696 in July
but he resigned earlier this year after being convicted of assaulting a constituent on a night out
Ms Pochin received 12,645 votes with her Labour rival just behind on 12,639
The previous post-war record for the smallest majority at a by-election was 57 in Berwick-Upon-Tweed in 1973
victorious candidate Sarah Pochin said the public was sending a message that 'enough is enough'
In one of the first major shocks of the night
Labour's Karen Clark won the race to be mayor of North Tyneside - held by the party since the post's inception in 2002
But the margin of victory was just 444 votes
ahead of Reform's John Falkenstein in second place and the Tories pushed down to third
The last time the mayoralty was up for grabs in 2021 the Labour majority was almost 14,000 - although a different voting system was used then
Mr Farage's long-term ally Arron Banks put in a strong showing in the West of England mayoralty
She said that 'inch-by-inch Reform will reset Britain to its glorious past'
'I know one day he will make a great prime minister,' she added
Mr Farage said he was 'delighted' with the outcome so far
One or two near misses in the mayoral contests but a huge night for Reform,' he told reporters at the count in Runcorn
He said it had been an 'emotional rollercoaster' for Ms Pochin
'It's the closest by-election since the war and I think one of the most dramatic
Mr Farage said they were 'on the verge' of taking control of the council in Staffordshire
and he would be looking towards County Durham where he 'fancied our chances'
He also branded Sir Keir a 'coward' for failing to visit Runcorn during the campaign
'I knocked on doors for eight hours today and I would have been here in this hall with our candidate regardless
Mr Farage said: 'We want you to stay on as leader
I'll put some money if you'd like to keep you there
Mr Farage suggested they will crack down on staff working from home and emulate Elon Musk's cost-cutting drive
He said 'every county council needs a DOGE'
Northumberland was the first county council to declare all its results
With the Conservatives and Reform now holding 49 of the 69 seats on the council
it raises the question of whether the parties will have to deal to run it
The council was previously led by a minority Conservative administration
with the party down seven and Labour down nine
while Reform previously had no seats on the council
Senior Labour sources have suggested Reform could win Durham Council
Returning Doncaster mayor Ms Jones condemned Sir Keir for failing to 'listen' to the public
She told the BBC: 'I wrote as soon as the winter fuel allowance was actually mooted
and therefore I stepped in immediately and used our household support fund to ensure no-one in Doncaster went cold during the winter.'
The increase in national insurance was 'hitting some of our smaller businesses' and the squeeze on the personal independence payment was leaving many people 'worried'
She added: 'I think the results here tonight will demonstrate that they need to be listening to the man
Labour MP Brian Leishman said the by-election result in Runcorn 'shows Labour must change course'
the MP for Alloa and Grangemouth said: 'People voted for real change last July & an end to austerity
'The first 10 months haven't been good enough or what the people want & if we don't improve people's living standards then the next government will be an extreme right wing one.'
Leeds MP Richard Burgon called for the government to 'tax the wealthiest' instead of cutting benefits
'By pushing policies like cuts to disability benefits and scrapping the winter fuel allowance
the leadership is driving away our own voters — and letting Reform squeeze through,' he posted on social media
'The Labour leadership must urgently change course and govern with real Labour values to deliver the change people are crying out for
It should start by ditching the plans to cut disability benefits and increase taxes on the wealthiest instead.'
Reform UK won three of the first five wards declared at Northumberland County Council
with Labour and the Conservatives picking up one each
It also picked up seats in Norwich and Hartlepool
Touring broadcast studios this morning, Tory co-chair Nigel Huddleston tried to put a brave face on the battering
He dismissed suggestions that Kemi Badenoch could have to quit
And challenged on whether there now needed to be a merger on the Right
Mr Huddleston said: 'Reform are not a Conservative party.'
Rifts are emerging on among senior Conservatives over whether to seek an accommodation with Mr Farage - something Ms Badenoch has flatly ruled out
One Tory frontbencher told MailOnline today: 'Reform are not interested in a merger
Labour chair Ellie Reeves said 'change takes time' and acknowledged 'people are impatient'
She told Times Radio: 'Change takes time and we know that people are impatient
'We had 14 years of chaos under the Conservatives
Public services and the public finances were left in a state
we're beginning to see the results of this
but we know we need to go further and faster.'
Ms Pochin said said illegal immigration was a 'massive issue' for Runcorn
She said: 'People are living next to private landlord accommodation full of illegal immigrants that are causing people's lives hell
'That is an issue that we will absolutely be looking at as the priority.'
She claimed constituents were 'frightened to go out of their houses'
She added: 'It's a whole area that we will be looking at in detail.'
A Conservative Party spokesman said of Runcorn: 'This result is a damning verdict on Keir Starmer's leadership which has led to Labour losing a safe seat
'Just 10 months ago Labour won an enormous majority
including in this seat with 52 per cent of the vote
but their policies have been a punch in the face for the people of Runcorn.'
Voters headed to the polls across England in 23 council elections
Up for grabs were more than 1,600 council seats
It is the first big test for Britain's political parties since last July's general election, at which Labour secured a landslide win.
Results did not start dropping until after 2am, with mayors and the by-election first.
Council votes will come in later as most do not start counting until the morning.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice said Reform UK 'are in business' after the strong performances.
He told BBC Breakfast: 'The big question we were looking to these elections to answer was, the message of the opinion polls is that Reform are now posing a big threat to both Conservative and Labour, neck and neck with them according to the polls.
'Is that really true? And I think we now already know that the answer to that question is yes.
'Ukip never managed to win a parliamentary by-election afresh in the way that Reform have managed to do in Runcorn.'
Sir John said Reform had put in 'some quite remarkable performances' as the more evenly spread vote was not a disadvantage to them at local level.
He added: 'Reform are in business. They are a major challenge.'
Luke Tryl of polling firm More in Common said: 'While it's still early we have enough of a spread of results to know the Reform momentum since the election is real and they can turn poll ratings into real votes.'
The parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby was triggered by Mike Amesbury's resignation from the House of Commons.
It came after he was jailed for 10 weeks for punching a constituent while drunk in Frodsham, Cheshire, last October.
Amesbury spent three nights in HMP Altcourse, Merseyside, in February before successfully appealing his sentence.
He won Runcorn and Helsby for Labour at July's general election with a 14,696-vote majority.
Reform came second to Labour in the Cheshire constituency last summer, while the Tories came third - more than 900 votes behind Reform.
Labour has the most seats on Durham Council (52 out of 126), but has been shut out of power for the past four years by a multi-party coalition that includes the Tories, the Lib Dems, Greens and various independents.
Before losing control in 2021, Labour had enjoyed a majority in Durham continuously since 1925.
At this election the council is being reduced in size from 126 to 98 seats, which makes the outcome hard to predict. Labour will hope to regain full control, but is facing a new challenge from Reform.
One senior Labour source told MailOnline: 'Durham could be a bigger story than Runcorn.
'The results were awful last time, I think they will be worse this time.
'Reform has an outside chance of running the council. Considering we ran the show for 102 years up to 2021 it'll be devastating.'
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey was optimistic about his party's prospects as polls closed.
'We are expecting to see big gains against the Conservatives in their former Middle England heartlands,' he said.
'Last year the Liberal Democrats won a record number of MPs and became the largest third party in 100 years. Now we are on course for our seventh year of local election gains, making this our best ever winning streak.
'Voters have delivered their verdict on a Conservative Party that broke the country and a Labour government that is too timid to fix it.'
Counting begins in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election and in four of the six mayoral contests: Doncaster, Greater Lincolnshire, North Tyneside and West of England.
Four of the 23 local authorities holding elections will start counting: Hertfordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland and Staffordshire.
Only one, Northumberland, is due to report all its results overnight; the other three will announce some results overnight, with the rest of the seats being declared later on Friday.
Results are due around this time for two of the mayoral contests.
North Tyneside is one of Labour's north-east heartlands and the party's candidate Karen Clark is favourite to win, though a low turnout may mean the result is closer than expected.
The West of England mayor could be a tight race between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens; Labour's chances may be affected by the outgoing mayor, Dan Norris, being suspended from the party after he was arrested on suspicion of sexual offences.
Counting should be over in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of the previous MP, Mike Amesbury, after he was given a suspended prison sentence for punching a man in a street in Frodsham, Cheshire.
The result this time is expected to be much closer, with Reform hoping to pull off a shock win.
Greater Lincolnshire is one of two new mayoral positions being contested for the first time and is likely to be a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Reform.
The Tories have picked the leader of North Lincolnshire council Rob Waltham, while the Reform candidate is former Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns.
The result of the Doncaster mayoral election is due, with Labour's Ros Jones hoping for a fourth term in office.
A full set of council results should be in for Northumberland, which is currently run by a Conservative minority administration.
Labour is the main opposition and will hope to improve its standing, though Reform and independent candidates could also make gains, ensuring the council remains in no overall control.
Ballot papers will start to be counted around this time for the remaining two mayoral contests in Cambridgeshire & Peterborough and Hull & East Yorkshire.
Counting will also get under way in those local authorities that did not begin overnight.
The full result is due for Durham council, where Labour is currently the largest party but does not have a majority and has been shut out of power for the past four years by a multi-party coalition that includes the Tories, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and various independents.
Labour will hope to regain full control, but is facing an added challenge this time from Reform.
The Tories could see their tiny majority vanish in Lancashire, where Labour, Reform and independent candidates are all hoping to make advances.
The result is due for the new Hull & East Yorkshire mayor.
The Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems all enjoy support in different parts of this region, while Reform has picked former boxer and Olympic medallist Luke Campbell as its candidate.
The pace begins to pick up with three councils due to finish declaring.
Doncaster is the only local authority Labour is defending at these elections, but the party faces a big threat from Reform, which is treating the council as a top target.
The Tories are likely to see their numbers cut in both Buckinghamshire and Leicestershire, but could well remain the largest party on both councils.
The result is also due for the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough mayor, which was won by Labour's Nik Johnson in 2021 but he is not standing this time, and where both the Tories and Lib Dems fancy their chances.
The losses could start to mount for the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems are hoping to replace the Tories as the largest party in Gloucestershire and Hertfordshire and could make major gains on both councils.
In Shropshire the Conservatives may lose power thanks to a challenge from the Lib Dems, Labour and smaller parties, though they could hang on in Staffordshire where they have a large majority.
Labour did well in the county of Derbyshire at the general election and is hoping to pick up seats on the council this year.
With the Lib Dems and Reform also eyeing gains, the Tories may lose overall control.
A string of results could bring more gloom for the Conservatives.
Reform is threatening to eat into the Tories' large presence in Lincolnshire and North Northamptonshire, while the Conservatives' tiny majority in Nottinghamshire is likely to evaporate in the face of challenges from Reform, Labour and local independents.
The Lib Dems hope to chip away at the Tory numbers in Warwickshire and do well enough in Oxfordshire to take majority control.
In Worcestershire, the story could be one of multiple parties gaining at the Conservatives' expense, particularly the Greens and Reform.
More Tory losses may come in Cornwall, where the party has minority control of the council but faces twin threats from the Liberal Democrats and independents.
The Lib Dems are also hoping to wipe out the Conservatives' majority in Devon and make gains at the Tories' expense in Wiltshire.
In Cambridgeshire, the Lib Dems are currently the largest party but do not have a majority and will be keen to improve their position.
The final results are due from Kent and West Northamptonshire: two councils where the Tories currently have a majority but where they face challenges from more than one party.
Reform and Labour are hoping to advance in both areas, while Kent could see gains for the Lib Dems, Greens and independent candidates.
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Reform-quake rocks Labour as Farage's party wins Runcorn by-electionCommenting on this article has endedNewest{{#isModerationStatus}}{{moderationStatus}}
They are a major challenge,’ says polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice
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Sir Keir Starmer has admitted his disappointment after Nigel Farage hailed Reform’s bombshell by-election victory over Labour in Runcorn and Helsby
The Reform UK leader was celebrating “a big moment” on Friday morning as his party gained a new MP and made significant gains at councils across England in the local elections
The result in Runcorn and Helsby was declared at 6am and followed a recount after only a handful of votes separated the two parties
It saw a 17% swing from Labour to Reform’s new MP Sarah Pochin and means Mr Farage’s party has inflicted defeat on the governing party in the first by-election test for the Prime Minister since he was elected in a landslide last July
was the smallest ever margin in a parliamentary by-election in the country's history
Speaking to reporters during a visit to Bedfordshire on Friday
Sir Keir said the result was "disappointing" and insisted he was determined to go "further and faster" in delivering change
the Prime Minister added that his party "get it"
"We were elected last year to bring about change."
Sir Keir added that his party has "started that work"
such as bringing in measures to cut NHS waiting lists
adding: "I am determined that we will go further and faster on the change that people want to see."
The parliamentary result came as Reform also made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local votes
with Farage claiming a "big moment" was taking place in UK politics
He added: "We've dug very deep into the Labour vote and
we've dug deep into the Conservative vote.”
we are now the main opposition party to this Government," he claimed
Reform’s Sarah Pochin said voters had made clear "enough is enough"
"Our victory...will inspire the rest of the country to believe that they too can stand up for fairness
for what is right and for our British values," she added
Labour said by-elections are "always difficult for the party in Government" and the events surrounding the Runcorn and Helsby vote made it "even harder"
It was a hugely dramatic result in a seat which Labour held with a majority of 14,696 in the 2024 general election
The by-election was triggered when former Labour MP Mike Amesbury quit after admitting punching a constituent
Voters on Thursday also took part in contests to elect more than 1,600 councillors across 23 local authorities, along with four regional mayors and two local mayors.
won the first ever Greater Lincolnshire mayoral race
But Labour held the West of England mayoralty
with Helen Godwin beating Reform's Arron Banks by 5,945 votes
although with a majority of just 444 ahead of Reform
Doncaster's Labour mayor Ros Jones was re-elected with a majority of 698 after a battle with Reform
But she hit out at the Prime Minister's administration
criticising decisions to means-test the winter fuel allowance
hike employers' national insurance contributions and squeeze welfare
Local elections 2025 full results: Reform gain new MP and raft of council seats as Tories and Labour falter
in Kemi Badenoch's first electoral test as leader
were also suffering at the hands of Reform and could also be squeezed by the Liberal Democrats
Reform look set to take control of Staffordshire County Council after taking 24 of the 30 seats to be counted overnight
It means when counting resumes later on Friday
Reform need to win just eight more seats to have a majority on the council
Reform also remained on track to take control of Lincolnshire County Council
after winning 19 of the first 25 seats to be declared
Liberal Democrats two and Conservatives one
The party needed another 17 seats from the 45 still to be declared to gain a majority on a council which was previously run by the Conservatives with 54 seats
They are a major challenge,” said polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice
Shadow communities secretary Kevin Hollinrake acknowledged the party was on course to lose around 500 councillors
He told the BBC: "We thought we'd lose half our seats."
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said: "We are expecting to see big gains against the Conservatives in their former Middle England heartlands."
The Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer stressed: "We are taking seats from both the Conservatives and Labour up and down the country as voters
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Nigel Farage’s triumph will intensify divisions within the government over policy and strategy
Nigel Farage has boasted of parking his tanks on Labour’s lawn
But until today none of his various outfits had succeeded in winning a seat from the party
Reform won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by six votes – the closest result for more than a century – overturning a 14,696 majority
against an experienced Labour electoral machine
one that signals its strengthening ground operation
Labour has responded by noting that “by-elections are always difficult for the party in government” and that “the events which led to this one being called made it even harder”
Former MP Mike Amesbury’s assault on a voter has proved the most politically pivotal punch since a similarly well-refreshed Eric Joyce let rip in a House of Commons bar in 2012 (that paved the way for the Falkirk by-election
a change in the Labour leadership voting rules and the election of Jeremy Corbyn)
But even these extenuating circumstances cannot disguise the scale of Labour’s reversal
Runcorn and Helsby was the 49th safest of the 411 seats that Keir Starmer’s party won just 10 months ago
Though the last parliament saw numerous Conservative fortresses toppled
this is not a pattern that a fresh Labour administration was supposed to replicate
Reform’s victory will deepen the anxiety among Starmer’s MPs – and intensify divisions over how to respond
It’s not only the 88 Labour MPs with Reform in second place who will be looking nervously over their shoulder – more than 250 would lose their seats were the 17.4 per cent swing to Farage’s party in Runcorn replicated
expect an increasing number of MPs to demand a “reset” – greater action to reduce immigration (one of the defining issues in Runcorn) and an avoidance of further austerity measures
As Labour sources from across the party testify
the means-testing of winter fuel payments has proved toxic among voters
Those cabinet ministers who privately warned against the policy from the start – and who are pushing for a change to Rachel Reeves’s fiscal approach – will be emboldened
Expect the result to also deepen the debate over Labour’s electoral strategy
While some emphasise the need to neutralise an advancing right
the combined Green and Liberal Democrat vote (3,256) far exceeded Reform’s majority
Though Farage’s party was long the favourite to win the seat
this was not enough to prevent a progressive divide
The next general election need not be held until August 2029
Reform’s electoral success will bring greater prominence but also added scrutiny
Yet the sinking feeling among Labour MPs – that they could one day be swept away as mercilessly as the Conservatives – has deepened
A full recount of votes in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election was called as Zia Yusuf
told Sky News the vote could be as close as just four ballots
Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information
Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information
Votes are counted in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in Runcorn
Photographer: Anthony Devlin/Getty Images
2025 at 11:08 PM EDTBookmarkSaveNigel Farage's Reform UK could be on the brink of inflicting defeat on Labour in the first by-election test for Sir Keir Starmer
A full recount is taking place in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election contest
with just four votes between Reform in first place and Labour
Reform leader hopeful of win against Labour while Tories face losing hundreds of seats in the local elections in England
Nigel Farage is talking up pulling off a major victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election
“Every time I go back I feel the gap with Labour is closing so I think we are in with a real chance,” said Reform UK’s leader who has visited the constituency three times
Winning the previously safe Labour seat would be a “significant” breakthrough for Reform UK
as its predecessor Eurosceptic party UKIP failed to make such progress
Sir Keir Starmer has conceded that the by-election on May 1 will be “tough” and in a sign that Labour fear losing it he has not visited the constituency
“I’m just going for gold,” Mr Farage told Times Radio
“We are going out to win and we have got a chance of doing it.”
Professor of Politics at Strathcylde University
highlighted two MRP polls of Runcorn and Helsby
“It certainly suggests it could be close,” he said
explaining whether Reform could pick up “protest votes” could be key
He added: “If Reform do manage to win the seat it will be significant because one of the things that UKIP never managed to do was to win a parliamentary by-election other than when a Tory MP stood down having defected to UKIP and then fought the subsequent by-election.”
The by-election follows the resignation of former MP Mike Amesbury, who won a clear majority for Labour in the 2024 general election, with 22,358 votes to Reform’s 7,662, but then received a 10-week suspended prison sentence after pleading guilty to punching a constituent last year.
At the same time, voters will go to the polls in 23 council areas across England and vote in six mayoral contests across devolved regions in elections that are forecast to see Reform make big gains at the expense of the Conservatives and possibly Labour
A YouGov poll on Tuesday put Reform on 26%
Sir John stressed what remained to be seen was whether Reform could convert large numbers of votes into actually winning council seats and mayoralties, and then delivering if it wins power.
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The Tories will be defending more than 900 seats
once boundary changes are taken into account
The last time these largely shire polls were held was four years ago when the Conservatives were enjoying a surge in popularity under Boris Johnson on the back of the Covid vaccine roll-out
Sir John added: “Losses are inevitable (for the Tories)...do they end up losing more than half their seats...that would be a really bad mark...or do they manage to stem it to lower than that but that is the kind of scale that we are anticipating given that the Conservatives were at 42% in the opinion polls four years ago
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has braced her party for heavy losses but stressed that it needs to “fight for every single vote”
Sir Keir said: “Most governments after a general election face a tough set of local elections.”