and Kateryna Stepanenko with William Runkel and Nate Trotter
Click <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375">here</a> to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report
Click <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/83a2f24901c941d581c0c523ecd2619b">here</a> to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast
Click <a href="https://understandingwar.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/3dviewer/index.html?appid=1602762dbcde419bb957dea358449580">here</a> to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine
Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool
Click <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/733fe90805894bfc8562d90b106aa895">here</a> to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline
ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly
Note: The data cut-off for this product was 11am ET on May 4
ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia maintains the initial objectives of its war in Ukraine
which are tantamount to Ukraine's surrender
despite ongoing negotiations with the United States
Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin published a documentary on Russian state TV channel Rossiya 1 about Putin on May 4
installing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine
forcing Ukraine to abandon its aspirations to join NATO and other security blocs
and forcing Ukraine to make massive territorial concessions to Russia
including parts of Ukraine that Russia does not currently occupy.[4] These demands amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation
Russia will likely continue efforts to achieve these goals through military and diplomatic means
as Russian officials continue attempts to leverage battlefield gains to strengthen their negotiating position
Putin highlighted domestic support for the war and promoted the ideal of sacrifice on the frontline and the home front
likely in an effort to prepare Russian society for a longer war in Ukraine and potential future confrontations with the West
Putin told Zarubin that Russian society reacted positively to the invasion of Ukraine and that each citizen realized that "he is the state" and Russia's survival depends on each individual.[5] Putin stated that Russia is a country of "moral and ethical values" and that the basis of the Russian conscience is "the family
and the future of Russia."[6] Putin is notably attempting to frame the Russian public's support for the war through shared values despite the Kremlin's reliance on financial incentives to recruit the majority of its military personnel and to maintain its war effort.[7] Putin accused the West once again of "deceiving" Russia following the 2015 Minsk agreements
likely in an effort to convince the Russian domestic audience that Russia cannot negotiate with the West and needs to continue the war.[8]
Putin's statements throughout the documentary indicate that Putin likely does not intend to slow offensive operations or transition to defensive operations in Ukraine and instead is attempting to ideologically prepare domestic Russian society for a long war
ISW has previously assessed that Russian officials are setting conditions to maintain a long war and to justify future aggression against Ukraine and NATO.[9] Russian officials have also consistently intensified efforts to militarize Russian society since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
further indicating that Russia is preparing for a protracted conflict
demonstrating the Kremlin's interest in creating a new generation of militarized
loyal citizens in the medium to long term[12]
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov provided new details on May 4 about the report that Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian fixed-wing aircraft with a surface-to-air missile (SAM) attached to a naval drone on May 2
Budanov reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian Su-30 fighter jets over the Black Sea with AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles fired from Magura-7 naval drones.[13]
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russo-Ukrainian%20War%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting
We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas
We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
Limited fighting continued in Kursk Oblast on May 3 and 4 as Russian forces continue efforts to push Ukrainian forces from the area.[14]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division
Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in Guyevo (south of Sudzha).[15]
Russian milbloggers claimed on May 3 and 4 that Ukrainian forces maintain a limited presence in northwestern Belgorod Oblast near Popovka and Demidovka (both northwest of Belgorod City).[16]
Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian defense industrial base (DIB) enterprise in Bryansk Oblast on May 4
Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported on May 4 that unspecified drones struck the Strela Plant in Suzemka
Bryansk Oblast.[17] Kovalenko reported that the Strela Plant produces electronic components and radar equipment for the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).[18] Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed on May 4 that Ukrainian drone strikes caused a fire at an industrial enterprise in Suzemka.[19] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that drones previously struck the Strela Plant in December 2023 and November 2024.[20]
Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City)
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on May 4 but did not make confirmed advances
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Sumy%20Direction%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Fighting continued north of Sumy City near Bilovody and Vodolahy and northeast of Sumy City near Loknya.[21]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz "Kashtan" Detachment
Russian 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Main Military Intelligence Directorate [GRU])
and Russian 1st Motorized Rifle Company of the 15th Tank Regiment (reportedly 69th Motorized Rifle Division
Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in the Sumy direction.[22]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction on May 4 but did not advance
  Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Tykhe on May 3 and 4.[23] 
<a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kharkiv%20Direction%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)<a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Oblast%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kupyansk%20Direction%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 1 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Zapadne (north of Kupyansk).[24]
Russian forces attacked southeast of Kupyansk near Pishchane and Novoosynove and south of Kupyansk near Hlushkivka on May 3 and 4.[25]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian "Anvar Spetsnaz" detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 "Anvar" volunteer detachment) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Bereznyky
and Novovasylivka (north of Kupyansk).[26]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on May 4 but did not make confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Zahryzove and west of Borova near Kopany and Tverdokhlibove on May 3 and 4.[27]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on May 4 but did not make confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi
and Yampolivka; east of Lyman near Torske; and southeast of Lyman in the Serebryanske forest area on May 3 and 4.[28] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked along the Nove-Zelena Dolyna line (northeast of Lyman).[29]
A Ukrainian National Guard servicemember stated on May 4 that Russian forces are conducting motorized assaults on motorcycles in the Lyman direction.[30] The servicemember reported that motorcycles typically carry two Russian soldiers — a driver and a gunner — and that Russian soldiers will continue attacking even if Ukrainian drones successfully strike one Russian soldier
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas
and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Oblast%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on May 4 but did not advance
Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka; east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske; and southeast of Ivano-Darivka on May 3 and 4.[31]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on May 4 but did not advance
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Chasiv Yar
and southeast of Chasiv Yar near Bila Hora on May 3 and 4.[32]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 4 that Ukrainian forces recently struck the command post of the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division (3rd Army Corps [AC]) in Bakhmut (west of Chasiv Yar in the Russian forces' rear).[33]
Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Toretsk%20Direction%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southern Novospaske (west of Toretsk).[34]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south of Stara Mykolaivka (southwest of Toretsk).[35]
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced south of Oleksandropil
and east of Tarasivka (all southwest of Toretsk).[36] A Russian source claimed that elements of the Russian 68th Tank Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division
Southern Military District [SMD]) advanced toward Romanivka (southwest of Toretsk).[37]
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Toretsk; west of Toretsk near Druzhba; north of Toretsk near Dachne
and Krymske; and southwest of Toretsk near Zelene Pole
and Yelyzavetivka and toward Oleksandropil
and Nova Poltavka on May 3 and 4.[38] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Novoolenivka (west of Toretsk).[39]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division
SMD) are reportedly operating in Novoolenivka.[40] Elements of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA
SMD) are reportedly operating in near Toretsk.[41] Drone operators of the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division
SMD) are reportedly operating between Toretsk and Pokrovsk.[42]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on May 4 but did not make confirmed advances
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pokrovsk%20Direction%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Malynivka (east of Pokrovsk).[43]
Russian forces conducted offensive operations east of Pokrovsk near Novotoretske
and Promin and toward Malynivka; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk near Shevchenko and Novoukrainka; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove
and Kotlyne on May 3 and 4.[44] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Kotlyne and Udachne.[45]
Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov stated that Russian forces are constantly rotating troops in the Pokrovsk direction and drawing down reserves.[46] Trehubov stated that Russian forces have been deploying heavy equipment less frequently since the start of 2025 but are compensating for this by using 10 to 100 motorcycles during assaults
A spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian forces recently pulled up reinforcements and are trying to take the E-50 Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway under fire control.[47] The spokesperson stated that Russian forces are first deploying freshly recruited and poorly trained personnel
 A captain in a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian forces launch attacks using motorcycles and small infantry groups under the cover of vehicles with electronic warfare (EW) systems.[48] The captain stated that Russian forces have started using motorcycles more frequently due to improving weather conditions and that the motorcyclists appear to have undergone training
The captain stated that motorcycle columns contain EW systems in the front
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces suspended active offensive operations near Lysivka and are transferring additional forces to the area
possibly to increase offensive operations in the future.[49]
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a Shahed drone strike against Ukrainian positions near Volodymyrivka (northeast of Pokrovsk in the Ukrainian near rear).[50]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on May 4 but did not make confirmed advances
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 27th Motorized Rifle Division (2nd CAA
Central Military District [CMD]) seized Novooleksandrivka (northeast of Novopavlivka).[51] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces entered Kotlyarivka (east of Novopavlivka) after using a ladder to cross a deep ditch
with one milblogger speculating that Russian forces may have seized the settlement.[52] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces advanced 900 meters toward Troitske (southeast of Novopavlivka).[53]
Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Novopavlivka near Novooleksandrivka; east of Novopavlivka near Kotlyarivka; and southeast of Novopavlivka near Troitske and Bohdanivka on May 3 and 4.[54]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division (41st CAA
CMD) are reportedly operating in the Novopavlivka direction.[55]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kurakhove direction on May 4 but did not advance
Russian forces conducted offensive operations west of Kurakhove near Bahatyr
Oleksiivka and Andriivka and southwest of Kurakhove near Odradne on May 3 and 4.[56] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Bahatyr and Odradne.[57]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 140th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade
36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (both of the 29th CAA
EMD) and 43rd Spetsnaz Company (reportedly also of the 29th CAA) are reportedly operating near Bahatyr.[58]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on May 4 but did not make confirmed advances
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Velyka%20Novosilka%20Direction%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced into northern Vesele (northwest of Velyka Novosilka) after successful counterattacks.[59] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced into Malynivka (southwest of Velyka Novosilka)
northwest of Novosilka (west of Velyka Novosilka)
and near Fedorivka (northwest of Velyka Novosilka) and Vesele.[60] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division
EMD) returned to the front after rest and force restoration
and advanced near Pryvilne (northwest of Velyka Novosilka) and Novosilka.[61]
Russian forces conducted offensive operations northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Fedorivka
and Burlatske; west of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka and toward Zelene Pole; and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Rivnopil and toward Novopil on May 3 and 4.[62] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Malynivka
Dniproenerhiya (northwest of Velyka Novosilka)
Vilne Pole (northwest of Velyka Novosilka)
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC
EMD) are reportedly operating near Malynivka.[64] Elements of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division
EMD) are reportedly operating near Novosilka.[65] Elements of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and EMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Zelene Pole.[66]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions
secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes
and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations east of Hulyaipole near Vysoke (formerly Chervone) on May 4 but did not advance.[67]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on May 4 but did not advance
   <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Direction%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Russian forces conducted ground attacks southeast of Orikhiv near Novopokrovka; south of Orikhiv near Novodanylivka; southwest of Orikhiv near Stepove and Pyatykhatky; and west of Orikhiv near Novoandriivka
Ukrainian Volunteer Army's Southern Group of Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk reported on May 4 that Russian forces have not advanced after reaching the Shcherbaky - Lobkove line in March 2025
and that Ukrainian forces have destroyed significant amounts of manpower
and motorcycles of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army ([CAA]
Southern Military District [SMD]) in this direction.[69]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment’s (42nd Motorized Rifle Division
SMD) “Nemets” group and elements of the Russian 247th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[70]
Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kherson direction on May 4 but did not advance
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson%20Direction%20May%2004%2C%202025.png"></a>
Russian forces continued ground attacks east of Kherson City near the Antonivka Road Bridge and on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta near Kizomyz (southwest of Kherson City) on May 3 and 4.[71]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian “Smuglyanka” detachment are reportedly striking Ukrainian targets near Burhunka and Beryslav (northeast of Kherson City).[75]
and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)
Russian forces launched a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 3 to 4
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 165 strike and decoy drones from Bryansk
Zaporizhia Oblast.[76] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 69 Shahed and other drones over eastern
and central Ukraine and that 80 decoy drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones struck civilian infrastructure and commercial infrastructure in Kharkiv
Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source
and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports
References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update
[1] https://tass dot com/politics/1952663; https://ria dot ru/20250504/putin-2014872731.html; https://meduza dot io/feature/2025/05/04/v-2014-godu-nachat-svo-bylo-nerealistichno-strana-ne-byla-gotova-k-protivostoyaniyu-s-zapadom; https://smotrim dot ru/brand/71557
[2] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/66181; https://tass dot ru/politika/13955467; https://tass dot ru/politika/23847373; https://www.gazeta dot ru/politics/2025/05/04/20980988.shtml
[3] https://tass dot ru/politika/13955467; https://tass dot ru/politika/23847373; https://www.gazeta dot ru/politics/2025/05/04/20980988.shtml
[6] https://tass dot ru/politika/23848271; https://t.me/tass_agency/313273; https://t.me/tass_agency/313276
[7] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-unlikely-demobilize-event-ceasefire-because-he-afraid-his-veterans; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030325
[9] https://isw.pub/UkrWar050325; https://isw.pub/UkrWar05022025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar043025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar043025 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042925; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042825; https://isw.pub/UkrWar05022025
[11] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-unlikely-demobilize-event-ceasefire-because-he-afraid-his-veterans
[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030725; 
https://isw.pub/UkrWar030325; https://isw.pub/UkrWar020725; https://isw.pub/UkrWar012825; https://isw.pub/UkrWar123124; https://isw.pub/UkrWar122124; https://isw.pub/UkrWar122024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar030625
[13] https://t.me/DIUkraine/5795 ; https://t.me/sotaproject/97347 ; https://www.twz.com/news-features/two-russian-su-30-flankers-downed-by-aim-9s-fired-from-drone-boats-ukrainian-intel-boss ; https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/mi-gotovi-yaknajshvidshe-hoch-vidsogodni-perehoditi-do-pripi-97529 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2025
[14] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830
[16] https://t.me/rybar/70104 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478
[21] https://t.me/wargonzo/26305 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478
[23]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9364 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9364
[24] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9057; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1603515846976978&amp;rdid=70htZ3OtCWWTjSRk
[25] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9353
[27] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9353
[28] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9353 
[30] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/04/kumedni-plashhi-ta-nezgrabni-bajkery-lymanskyj-napryamok-poligon-nevdalyh-eksperymentiv-armiyi-rf/
[31] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9364
[32] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9364; https://t.me/wargonzo/26305
[34] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1919014963399503986; https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1919015174951866564; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9060; https://t.me/razvedkavperedZ/945
[35] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9059; https://t.me/D109ObrTroZsu/1727
[36] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91061; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35332; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35296; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478
[38] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9353; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9364; https://t.me/dva_majors/70479
[43] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35296; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478
[46] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/04/logika-vijny-proty-logiky-paradu-shho-stoyit-za-riznymy-napryamkamy-rosijskyh-atak-na-shodi/
[47] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1009219-vijska-rf-namagautsa-vzati-pid-vognevij-kontrol-trasu-pavlograd-pokrovsk-dani-59-brigadi/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4XONrDJWsc
[48] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/04/motoczykly-fpv-i-svizha-pihota-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku-tryvayut-ataky-ale-vorog-vtrachaye-bilshe-nizh-zdobuvaye/
[52] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91062; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35280; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91062; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35333
[53] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163479https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163479
[56] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9353; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9364; https://t.me/wargonzo/26305; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163479; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478
[58] https://t.me/voin_dv/14737; https://t.me/voin_dv/14734
[60] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35295; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63983; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163457 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63981; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163424; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35284
[62] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9353 ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9364; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163479
[63] https://t.me/dva_majors/70478; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63983; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478; https://t.me/voin_dv/14744; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63981
[64] https://t.me/voin_dv/14733; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163424
[67] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl 
[68] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tYJuHQyrpeqFJ4iAfUrujoSb8frCrxvTdzZMNi2rsQj4MrdsvKJAbiqGTwN597qvl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830; https://t.me/dva_majors/70478
[69] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/04/ponad-300-vorozhyh-chovniv-na-dni-proval-ostrivnoyi-taktyky-okupantiv-na-pivdni-ta-yiyi-czina/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8GCx3PzK1I
[70] https://t.me/wargonzo/26303; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35282; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35305
[71] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0auLbzG22dLmTVGFrKtnknxx9nXBnfL4kUPZ83n8ZNMRvxZn7JjgEuWyD4CpvbuuJl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23830; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/04/chy-zmozhut-rosiyany-zaraz-forsuvaty-dnipro-vidpovily-u-sylah-oborony-pivdnya/; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/04/ponad-300-vorozhyh-chovniv-na-dni-proval-ostrivnoyi-taktyky-okupantiv-na-pivdni-ta-yiyi-czina/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8GCx3PzK1I
[72] https://suspilne dot media/kherson/1009785-provodat-rozviduvalno-posukovi-zahodi-sob-pereviriti-ukrainsku-oboronu-recnik-sil-oboroni-pivdna-pro-dii-rf/; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/04/ponad-300-vorozhyh-chovniv-na-dni-proval-ostrivnoyi-taktyky-okupantiv-na-pivdni-ta-yiyi-czina/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8GCx3PzK1I; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/04/chy-zmozhut-rosiyany-zaraz-forsuvaty-dnipro-vidpovily-u-sylah-oborony-pivdnya/
[73] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/04/ponad-300-vorozhyh-chovniv-na-dni-proval-ostrivnoyi-taktyky-okupantiv-na-pivdni-ta-yiyi-czina/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8GCx3PzK1I
[74] https://suspilne dot media/kherson/1009785-provodat-rozviduvalno-posukovi-zahodi-sob-pereviriti-ukrainsku-oboronu-recnik-sil-oboroni-pivdna-pro-dii-rf/; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/04/minus-70-motoczykliv-za-dobu-zsu-kosyat-vidchajdushni-moto-shturmy-rf-na-shlyahu-do-dnipropetrovshhyny/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFvyCBahZ_k ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/04/chy-zmozhut-rosiyany-zaraz-forsuvaty-dnipro-vidpovily-u-sylah-oborony-pivdnya/
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow has the "strength and means" to bring its unprovoked war on Ukraine to a "logical conclusion."
more than three years after Putin launched his full-scale invasion
"We have <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-putin-ceasefire-868bda4fc666ec3b05a1e512eca91b3c" data-type="link" data-id="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-putin-ceasefire-868bda4fc666ec3b05a1e512eca91b3c" target="_blank">enough strength and means</a> to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the outcome Russia requires," Putin said
according to a preview of an interview with state television
In the interview, Putin said there would be “no need” to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict. Responding to a question about <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-leaders-vladimir-putin-foreign-affairs-dealmaker-white-house/" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-leaders-vladimir-putin-foreign-affairs-dealmaker-white-house/">Ukrainian strikes on Russia</a>
he said: "There has been no need to use those [nuclear] weapons ..
Late Saturday, Zelenskyy said that Kyiv is "ready to move toward a ceasefire as soon as possible — even starting today — <a href="https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi-gotovi-yaknajshvidshe-hoch-vidsogodni-perehoditi-do-pripi-97529" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi-gotovi-yaknajshvidshe-hoch-vidsogodni-perehoditi-do-pripi-97529" target="_blank">if Russia is ready to take reciprocal steps</a> — to establish complete silence
a lasting ceasefire of at least 30 days."  
However, "currently, the intensity of Russian strikes indicates nothing but Russia’s desire to continue fighting," Zelenskyy said in his <a href="https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi-gotovi-yaknajshvidshe-hoch-vidsogodni-perehoditi-do-pripi-97529" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi-gotovi-yaknajshvidshe-hoch-vidsogodni-perehoditi-do-pripi-97529" target="_blank">nightly address</a>
“If the Chinese vampire can’t suck the American blood, it’s going to suck the U.K. blood and the EU blood,&#8221; Peter Navarro tells the Telegraph.
“The question is serious enough, with far-reaching consequences for the country’s future, that it should be put directly to the people,&#8221; Bayrou tells Journal du Dimanche. 
U.K. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper called the arrests “serious events that demonstrate the ongoing requirement to adapt our response to national security threats.”  
“Couldn’t organise a piss-up in a brewery,” says one frustrated candidate.
All Moscow airports closed as swarm of Ukrainian drones targets Russian capital from multiple directions
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<a href="/topic/moscow">Moscow</a> has come under a massive Ukrainian drone attack for the second night in a row
prompting the cancellation of flights at all four airports serving the Russian capital
<a href="/topic/russia">Russia</a> said its air defence units shot down at least 19 drones that had approached Moscow “from different directions”
It was a dramatic escalation from the four drones that hit Moscow a day earlier
On the war's frontline, Ukrainian forces attacked a power substation in Russia's western <a href="/topic/kursk">Kursk</a> region after <a href="/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-mapped-belgorod-kursk-incursion-b2729958.html" title="Mapped: All Ukrainian incursions into Russia - including activity in Belgorod confirmed by Zelensky">launching an audacious second incursion</a> into the region
Last month, Russia's top general said that Ukrainian troops<a href="/news/kursk-russia-kyiv-moscow-donetsk-b2740094.html" title="What to know about the battle for Russia's Kursk region"> had been ejected from Kursk</a>, ending the biggest incursion into Russian territory since the <a href="/topic/second-world-war">Second World War</a>
Officials in Greece have rejected reports that it is being lined up by the Trump administration to send Ukraine a Patriot air defence system
A report by the New York Times cited four current and former US officials as saying that a Patriot missile system from Germany or Greece is likely to be sent to Ukraine
a Greek official denied that Patriot systems will be sent from there while discussions are still being held on a package of new aid ahead of the Nato summit in late June
"There is no question of supplying Ukraine with Patriot systems from Greece," a government official in Athens told Reuters
The Times report said one Patriot system was being refurbished and sent to Ukraine from Israel
The war-hit nation has asked its allies in Europe to provide it with more Patriot systems to down incoming Russian missiles
The attack by Ukrainian forces on the Western edge of Kursk is dramatic but not a surprise
The Independent’s World Affairs Editor Sam Kiley writes
Ukraine has maintained a foot hole in the salient it captured last August but lost most of earlier this year to prevent Russian incursions into its territory
It is also conducted commando raids and semi-covert operations further east around the Russian city of Belgorod amid claims from President Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia was building up its own forces on his northern border for a potential invasion
The latest Ukrainian attacks on Kursk draw focus and energy away from a potential Russian attack and serve political purpose in reminding the Russian population that there is a price to pay at home for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://theindependent.slack.com/archives/C030A4BHNFJ/p1746444313018599"></a>
But there are only Russian sources reporting the Ukrainian attack on Kursk and there has been no official confirmation from Kyiv on these reported operations
Russian military bloggers said Ukrainian forces firing missiles had smashed through the border
"The enemy blew up bridges with rockets at night and launched an attack with armoured groups in the morning," Russian war blogger "RVvoenkor" said on Telegram
"The mine clearance vehicles began to make passages in the minefields
There is a heavy battle going on at the border," they said
Popular Russian military blog Rybar said Ukrainian units were trying to advance near two settlements in Kursk region over the border -- Tyotkino and Glushkovo
wrote on Telegram that residents of several localities were being evacuated to safer areas
Ukraine first made a surprise incursion into Kursk in August 2024
hoping to shift the momentum in Russia's full-scale invasion and draw Russian forces away from other sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine
Last month Russian generals and president Vladimir Putin claimed that those forces had been fully expelled from Russian territory
But Kyiv has not acknowledged that its troops were forced out
President Volodymyr Zelensky says his military continued to operate in Kursk and in the adjacent Russian region of Belgorod
Dismissing <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/vladimir-putin">Vladimir Putin</a>’s offer of a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-72-hour-ceasefire-ukraine-russia-b2741490.html">brief ceasefire in May</a> as yet “another attempt at manipulation” is an understatement. The Russian president is – according to the former head of MI6 – intent on taking much more than just <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/ukraine">Ukraine</a>
Far from being worried by recent mini-threats from <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> to increase sanctions or stung by the <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/trump-putin-peace-talks-ukraine-war-b2728275.html">US president’s irritation</a> at Russia’s stalling over a ceasefire
Putin is cupping his ears in a pantomime of attention and carrying on doing as he pleases
Such behaviour chimes with the uncharacteristically <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/war-putin-trump-mi6-panel-conversation-b2721259.html">stark message from ex-spy chief </a>Sir Alex Younger who
after a lifetime in the shadows of espionage
has a simple message: “If you don’t stand up to him
he comes back for more – how many more times do we need to be told this?”
Putin’s latest play is a three-day ceasefire from 8 May to mark the Russian anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. His <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-easter-ceasefire-truce-ukraine-b2736332.html">last Easter ceasefire was ignored</a> by his own troops
Ukrainian forces attacked a power substation in Russia's western Kursk region
the regional governor said early this morning after Russian war bloggers reported a new Ukrainian land-based incursion into the area backed by armoured vehicles
Officials on both sides of the border reported deaths from military activity and ordered evacuations of several settlements
Kursk governor Alexander Khinshtein said Ukrainian forces had struck the substation in the town of Rylsk
Two transformers were damaged and power cut to the area
is continuing to launch strikes against our territory," Khinshtein wrote
confirming Ukrainian presence in the Russian region
Russia's top general said that Ukrainian troops had been ejected from Kursk
ending the biggest incursion into Russian territory since the Second World War
and that Russia was carving out a buffer zone in the Ukrainian region of Sumy
Ukraine made a surprise incursion into Kursk in August 2024
All four airports serving Moscow have been shut down and all flights have been halted
said Russia’s aviation watchdog Rosaviatsia this morning
Airports in a number of regional cities were also closed
Russia’s capital came under a massive drone attack
Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that at least 19 Ukrainian drones were destroyed on their approach to Moscow "from different directions"
Russia only reports the number of drones it destroys
Russian air defence units destroyed a swarm of Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow for the second night in a row
prompting the closure of the capital's airports
A day earlier Ukraine hit Moscow with four drones
with Russian president Vladimir Putin set to host a Victory Day parade in the city at the end of this week to mark the 80th anniversary of victory in the Second World War
At least three social media sites on Telegram with links to Russian security services – Baza
Mash and Shot – said one drone struck an apartment building near a major road in the south of the capital
The mayor said there was "no destruction or casualties" at any of the sites where fragments had fallen."
Specialists from the emergency services are working at the sites where the incidents occurred," he said
He referred to debris falling on one of the key highways leading into the city
but made no mention of a dwelling being hit
\"There is no question of supplying Ukraine with Patriot systems from Greece,\" a government official in Athens told Reuters
Volodymyr Zelensky stands in front of a Patriot anti-aircraft missile system during his visit to a military training area in Mecklenburg
The latest Ukrainian attacks on Kursk draw focus and energy away from a potential Russian attack and serve political purpose in reminding the Russian population that there is a price to pay at home for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://theindependent.slack.com/archives/C030A4BHNFJ/p1746444313018599\"></a>
\"The enemy blew up bridges with rockets at night and launched an attack with armoured groups in the morning,\" Russian war blogger \"RVvoenkor\" said on Telegram
\"The mine clearance vehicles began to make passages in the minefields
There is a heavy battle going on at the border,\" they said
Russian soldiers ride on a self-propelled gun in Russia's Kursk region
Dismissing <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/vladimir-putin\">Vladimir Putin</a>’s offer of a <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-72-hour-ceasefire-ukraine-russia-b2741490.html\">brief ceasefire in May</a> as yet “another attempt at manipulation” is an understatement. The Russian president is – according to the former head of MI6 – intent on taking much more than just <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/ukraine\">Ukraine</a>
Far from being worried by recent mini-threats from <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/donald-trump\">Donald Trump</a> to increase sanctions or stung by the <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/trump-putin-peace-talks-ukraine-war-b2728275.html\">US president’s irritation</a> at Russia’s stalling over a ceasefire
Such behaviour chimes with the uncharacteristically <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/war-putin-trump-mi6-panel-conversation-b2721259.html\">stark message from ex-spy chief </a>Sir Alex Younger who
Putin’s latest play is a three-day ceasefire from 8 May to mark the Russian anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. His <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-easter-ceasefire-truce-ukraine-b2736332.html\">last Easter ceasefire was ignored</a> by his own troops.
Ukrainian forces attacked a power substation in Russia's western Kursk region, the regional governor said early this morning after Russian war bloggers reported a new Ukrainian land-based incursion into the area backed by armoured vehicles.
Officials on both sides of the border reported deaths from military activity and ordered evacuations of several settlements.
Kursk governor Alexander Khinshtein said Ukrainian forces had struck the substation in the town of Rylsk, about 50km (30 miles) from the border, injuring two teenagers. Two transformers were damaged and power cut to the area.
\"Dear residents, the enemy, in its agony, is continuing to launch strikes against our territory,\" Khinshtein wrote, confirming Ukrainian presence in the Russian region.
Last month, Russia's top general said that Ukrainian troops had been ejected from Kursk, ending the biggest incursion into Russian territory since the Second World War, and that Russia was carving out a buffer zone in the Ukrainian region of Sumy.
Ukraine made a surprise incursion into Kursk in August 2024, hoping to shift the momentum in Russia's full-scale invasion and draw Russian forces away from other sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine.
A Ukrainian tank passes by a burning car near the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Sumy region
All four airports serving Moscow have been shut down and all flights have been halted, said Russia’s aviation watchdog Rosaviatsia this morning.
Airports in a number of regional cities were also closed, it said.
Just hours earlier, Russia’s capital came under a massive drone attack, officials reported.
Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that at least 19 Ukrainian drones were destroyed on their approach to Moscow \"from different directions\".
Russia only reports the number of drones it destroys, and not those that hit their targets.
Passengers wait for their taxis at Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport
Russian air defence units destroyed a swarm of Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow for the second night in a row, prompting the closure of the capital's airports, Russian officials said early this morning.
Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that at least 19 Ukrainian drones were destroyed on their approach to Moscow \"from different directions\". 
A day earlier Ukraine hit Moscow with four drones, with Russian president Vladimir Putin set to host a Victory Day parade in the city at the end of this week to mark the 80th anniversary of victory in the Second World War.
At least three social media sites on Telegram with links to Russian security services – Baza, Mash and Shot – said one drone struck an apartment building near a major road in the south of the capital, smashing windows. 
The mayor said there was \"no destruction or casualties\" at any of the sites where fragments had fallen.\"
Specialists from the emergency services are working at the sites where the incidents occurred,\" he said.
He referred to debris falling on one of the key highways leading into the city, but made no mention of a dwelling being hit.
A ‘No Drone Zone’ sign stucks to a pole in the Zaryadye park, as it prohibits the overflying of the area by unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), in central Moscow
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Reporting by Reuters; editing by Diane Craft
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In this new world order of military burden sharing between America and Europe it&#39;s not clear the British Royal Navy is up to the task
</a>Today, there are only three global naval powers: the United States, <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/china/">China</a>, and <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/russia/">Russia</a>
able occasionally to deploy further afield
If Donald Trump wants European states to look after their own collective security
Britain might be better off keeping its handful of ships in the Atlantic
although still able to inflict severe damage on Ukraine
few people talk about the real Russian naval capacity to challenge Western dominance
how this will increasingly come up against U.S
That is an incredible message to our adversaries
It is an incredible show of unity to our allies and our commitment to NATO.”
almost half of Britain’s fighting ships embarked from Portsmouth and Devonport to much fanfare
“the world’s most advanced air defense destroyer,” has been in the dry dock since 2017
I’ve just finished reading “The Royal and Russian Navies, Cooperation, Competition and Confrontation,”<a href="https://manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526184597/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">written by</a> Britain’s former Naval Attache to Moscow
retired Principal Lecturer at the Defence Centre for Languages &amp; Culture at the UK’s Defence Academy
The authors argue that while we have focused most of our attention on Russia’s army in Ukraine
And thinking about Russia as a relic of its Cold War self is a huge mistake
laboring under sanctions and the tight fiscal constraints of the war in Ukraine
Russia’s naval yards have built new vessels non-stop for the past decade
Russia has taken delivery of 27 submarines
Many more are under construction and will arrive by the end of this decade
The Royal Navy, on the other hand, has continued to shrink in the teeth of defense cuts, and each new efficiency drive makes it smaller. The two <a href="https://www.navaltoday.com/2025/04/07/uk-to-sell-two-albion-class-amphibious-ships-to-brazil/#:~:text=The%20Brazilian%20Navy%20has%20signed%20an%20agreement%20with,was%20signed%20at%20LAAD%20Defence%20%26%20Security%202025." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Albion-class landing vessels</a>
and negotiations about their sale to Brazil are at an advanced stage
The increase in defense spending to 2.5% of GDP will mostly be swallowed by the MoD’s bloated procurement programs that are typically delayed and always over budget
It will not produce a rapid conveyor belt of ship-building that has seen Russia overtake Britain at a rapid pace since the Ukraine crisis started
The book also underlines the importance of dialogue as a key component of deterrence and reminds the reader of the significant naval cooperation that took place between the two navies after the Cold War
When HMS Battleaxe sailed into Baltiysk in 1992
the first Royal Navy ship visit to modern-day Russia
it discovered the remnants of the Soviet Navy
The Russian Navy had become the main beneficiary of Russia’s state armament program
and a Russian admiral was saying the UK’s decision to give up the Nimrod Maritime Patrol Aircraft in 2010 made his “life easier.” 
practically all direct engagement between the Royal and Russian navies was cut at the instigation of the UK government
the UK and Russia have no serving military attachés in their respective embassies in London and Moscow for the first time since 1941
Our modern generation of seafarers are now only able to view Russians through binoculars
Britain has literally watched a modernizing Russian navy sail off into a distant horizon as we’ve criticized Russia from an ivory conning tower
From his ridiculous photo op on the deck of HMS The Prince of Wales, it’s not clear that Keir Starmer has understood that the world now contains just three <a href="https://www.wdmmw.org/ranking.php" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">global naval powers</a>: the United States of America
Russian naval ambitions have now grown in the High North (Arctic) and in the Pacific
While Britain’s modest Carrier Strike Group steams east, Russia has already been active in joint naval exercises with <a href="https://news.usni.org/2024/03/14/russia-china-and-iran-finish-drills-in-gulf-of-oman#:~:text=Russia%2C%20China%20and%20Iran%20completed%20the%20at-sea%20phase,with%20the%20drills%20scheduled%20to%20end%20on%20Friday." rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">China and Iran</a>
as well as ship visits to Myanmar and other locations
Britain has practically no scope to control Russia’s increasingly assertive naval posture in Asia
This decade-long lack of engagement — not just by Britain but by America pre-Trump — has left us sailing blind on how Russian doctrine and tactics have shifted in the forge of war in Ukraine
It&#39;s clear to me that in this new world order of military burden sharing between America and Europe
Britain would be better placed keeping its handful of ships in the Atlantic
while America increasingly comes into contact with the Russian Navy in the Pacific
In President Donald Trump’s first 100 days
his administration has arrested and detained
visa holders and other non-citizens in the U.S
for speaking out against Israel’s military actions in Gaza
That’s not how the administration frames it
but that is the connective tissue in each of the cases
“We’re either a free society governed by the Constitution
Paul was specifically addressing the <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/antisemitism-awareness-act-bill-cassidy-rcna203896" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Antisemitism Awareness Act</a> which would codify a Trump-era executive order declaring that antisemitism is a prohibited form of discrimination in schools and universities
and would use the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism in assessing cases of antisemitic discrimination through the Department of Education
<a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/society/ihra-definition-antisemitism/" target="_blank">Critics say</a> that it would allow the government to conflate criticism of Zionism and the Israeli government with antisemitism and serve as a dangerous tool to shut down free speech
Paul wondered aloud if campus police would be used in enforcing new speech rules
As The Jewish Chronicle <a href="https://www.thejc.com/news/usa/antisemitism-awareness-act-senate-hearing-b3wpu6yi" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reported</a> after the vote was postponed
Paul was part of “a testy hearing on Wednesday that covered objections to the bill ranging from whether a Christian would be barred from saying that Jews killed Jesus
to the acceptability of making contemporary political allusions to Nazi Germany and even the comedy of Jerry Seinfeld and Joan Rivers.”
Paul cited the landmark 1969 Brandenburg v. Ohio <a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/e-lessons/skokie-and-brandenburg" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">case</a>
in which Ku Klux Klan member Clarence Brandenburg was convicted under two Ohio laws of allegedly inciting violence against Jews and African-Americans with his speech
Brandenburg claimed that his punishment violated the First Amendment
“Brandenburg was a Nazi and an antisemite and he said horrible things,” Paul said
the Supreme Court ruled that you can say terrible things.”
The senator compared the American concept of free speech with Europe’s recent crackdowns on speech
“That’s unique about our country,” Paul said. “In <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/regions/europe/">Europe</a>
if you call a boy who thinks he’s a girl a boy
If you say something about the Holocaust in Europe
Do we want to replicate Europe’s speech laws in the U.S.
“We’re codifying what Europe did to speech
The Congressional debate is taking place as non-citizen students have been snatched away ostensibly for what they said or wrote about Israel
the former co-president of Columbia University’s Palestinian Student Union
of using “threatening rhetoric and intimidation” against Jewish students during a protest on campus in 2024
A 34-year-old permanent resident of the U.S
who was born and raised in a Palestinian refugee camp in the West Bank before moving to the U.S
Mahdawi was detained by ICE agents while at his naturalization hearing in Vermont on April 14
He was never formally charged with a crime
We don&#39;t know if the other non-citizen students detained by immigration authorities in the last month have actually been involved in threats or intimidation
because the administration has been deliberately vague about its reasons for detaining them
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the administration has the right to deport non-citizens when their &quot;presence and activities in the United States would have serious adverse foreign policy consequences and would compromise a compelling U.S
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/29/khalil-mahdawi-deportation-foreign-policy-rubio/" target="_blank">He is invoking a little-used clause in the Immigration and Nationality Act</a>
which stipulates that the Secretary of State can determine what kind of activity rises to the level of having “potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences” for the country
Others are still in detention awaiting hearings
Columbia University graduate Mahmoud Khalil claims he was arrested on March 8 for a speech he gave during campus protests, though he too was never charged with anything. A judge <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/mahmoud-khalil-detention-challenge-moves-forward/story?id=121294285" target="_blank">has said</a> the administration’s attempt to deport him will be decided in court
He has been accused by Department of Homeland Security officials of spreading Hamas propaganda
something his family and supporters vehemently deny
the detainees’ support for the Palestinians’ plight and criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza appear to be the primary reasons behind their arrests
But if America did ignore the First Amendment and allowed rigid UK-style speech laws instead
Do the purveyors of the new antisemitism speech legislation on Capitol Hill know that this could boomerang on them when their ideological opponents someday get back into power
As journalist Glenn Greenwald <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIjlFNU036s" target="_blank">observed</a> about the antisemitism legislation
“this is not a hate speech code applying to foreign nationals
It&#39;s a hate speech code that applies to American citizens
where people can be punished for the expression of ideas on college campuses cheered for by the right wing faction that has long claimed there&#39;s nothing worse than hate speech codes and other forms of suppression of ideas on college campuses.”
Carving out one country in the world and making it forbidden to criticize its government is the complete antithesis of the Constitution’s protections and a betrayal of the American tradition
The First Amendment allows anyone on American soil to critique the U.S
but now condemning a foreign government could land you in jail or deported to another country
One would think that putting America first might include putting its First Amendment first
The U.S.-Ukraine minerals <a href="https://unherd.com/newsroom/minerals-deal-is-ukraines-best-chance-of-peace" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">agreement</a> is not a diplomatic breakthrough and will not end the war
but it is a significant success for Ukraine
both in the short term and — if it is ever in fact implemented — in the longer term
It reportedly does not get Ukraine the security “guarantees” that Kyiv has been asking for. It does not commit the U.S. to fight for Ukraine, or to back up a European “reassurance force” for Ukraine. And NATO membership remains off the table. Given its basic positions, there is no chance of the <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/trump-administration/">Trump administration</a> shifting on these points
But since the Ukraine peace process appeared to run out of steam
and Trump threatened to “walk away” from the talks
Kyiv and Moscow have been engaged in an elaborate diplomatic dance of semi-proposals and hints to try to ensure that if Trump does walk away
he will blame the other side for the talks’ failure
This agreement makes it far more likely that he will blame <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/russia/">Russia</a>, and therefore that he will continue military and intelligence aid to Ukraine. He may also, as threatened, try to impose additional sanctions on Russia — though given the resistance of most of the world to these sanctions, and tensions over tariffs between the U.S. and <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/regions/europe/">Europe</a>
it is not at all clear how effective new sanctions would be
military and intelligence aid will not win the war for Ukraine
nor allow it to drive the Russians from occupied territory
It will however help the Ukrainian army to slow down Russia’s advance on the ground and impose heavy casualties on the Russian army
This should not be taken by the Ukrainians or their European supporters as an excuse to maintain impossible conditions for peace that will make a settlement impossible; because the military and economic odds are still strongly against Ukraine
and a collapse of Ukraine’s exhausted troops is a real possibility
it will make it more likely that Russia will abandon or heavily qualify its impossible demands
for example for Ukrainian disarmament and withdrawal from additional territory
it is clearly far more favorable for Ukraine than Trump’s original — and grotesque — proposal that Ukraine should essentially hand its entire reserves of minerals to the U.S
the profits of mineral extraction will be equally shared
As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/30/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-russia" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">said</a>: “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free
… President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine
no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.” 
money go to develop mineral extraction in the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine
keep a lot of bad actors out of the country or certainly out of the area where we’re doing the digging.&quot;
absolute Western security guarantees for Ukraine after a peace settlement have never really been on offer
because the Biden administration and almost every other NATO government stated repeatedly that they would not fight to defend Ukraine
will however ensure a strong continued U.S
It greatly reduces the risk that in the event of future Russian aggression
would simply look away and not respond as it has in this war
with military supplies and extreme sanctions
But the deal won’t be implemented until the war comes to an end. Thereafter, it will <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/30/ukraine-trump-minerals-deal-agreement/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">depend</a> on the willingness of U.S
private companies to invest in this sector — and that will depend on their assessment of both the risks and the profits involved
For it is vital to note that this agreement does not commit the U.S
government to invest in Ukraine; and to judge by the present profitability of minerals extraction in the world
it is not certain that private investors will see major benefits from doing so
<a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/tag/china/">China</a> has developed its rare-earth sector on such a scale mainly through huge state-directed investment; and no-one has so far done a thorough analysis of the actual profitability and scale of most of these Ukrainian resources
only a tactical success for Ukraine and one over which there hang many questions; but nonetheless one that hopefully will lead Moscow to respond with some serious and acceptable peace proposals of its own
The Bunker <a href="https://www.pogo.org/newsletters/the-bunker/the-bunker-aviation-weak" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">appears originally</a> at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission
would love to see larger production rates.”
referring to the Air Force’s piddling 100-bomber buy
“Which is something that we and the government decided was important for the optionality to support the scenarios that they have been looking at to increase the current build rate.”
“Some defense analysts believe that the Air Force should plan to purchase at least 200 B-21s.” Gotta wonder how much of a bonus the PR whiz pocketed who added “at least 200.”
While the bomber may have some ability to elude enemy radar
It rarely works and only serves to delay the program
(And for all those years you thought the “F” in F-16s
meaning a supercharged F-35 would cost $150 million.)
Why should it take losing a contract to compel a contractor to build something nearly as good for half the price
No doubt there’s some Lockheed hyperbole there
But it’s no more hyperbolic than the hypersonic frenzy used to justify the F-47
Here’s an inside tip: Foreign foes are never as threatening as those with an (in)vested interest in fighting them claim
weapons are never as good when they roll off the assembly line as they are at conception
“Generative AI is not just a tactical threat; it is a strategic disruptor that challenges the foundations of belief
AI could generate a fake living bad guy to declare: “You missed.”
→ <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/04/22/g-s1-61658/trump-golden-dome-america-iron-military-defense?emci=e5b745c5-2d25-f011-8b3d-6045bded8cca&emdi=ea000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001&ceid=%7B%7BContactsEmailID%7D%7D" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="" target="_blank">Shield of dreams</a>
Declaring you’re going to build a “Golden Dome” missile shield and building it are two very different things
→ <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/lessons-in-communication-from-the-uss-iowa-battleship-disaster?emci=e5b745c5-2d25-f011-8b3d-6045bded8cca&emdi=ea000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001&ceid=%7B%7BContactsEmailID%7D%7D" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Walking the plank</a>
James Holmes of the Naval War College autopsies the 1989 blast aboard the USS Iowa that killed 47 sailors and details how and why the Navy compounded the tragedy with its disgraceful investigation
→ <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/books/review/ghosts-of-iron-mountain-phil-tinline.html?unlocked_article_code=1.DE8.nFk3.r9NnT5yIBoDb&smid=url-share&emci=e5b745c5-2d25-f011-8b3d-6045bded8cca&emdi=ea000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001&ceid=%7B%7BContactsEmailID%7D%7D" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">War game</a>
examines a 1967 magazine article that argued that war is “the essential economic stabilizer of modern societies.” It was a crafty hoax
Thanks for infecting The Bunker with your attention this week. Consider forwarding it to friends so they can <a href="https://secure.everyaction.com/hh7kOEIbnEmNQzj49E08Aw2?ms=bunkersignoff&emci=e5b745c5-2d25-f011-8b3d-6045bded8cca&emdi=ea000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001&ceid=%7B%7BContactsEmailID%7D%7D" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="" target="_blank">subscribe here</a>.
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Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Lucy Papachristou; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine had not arisen and that he hopes it will not
In comments aired Sunday in a film by Russian state television about his quarter of a century in power
Putin said Russia has the strength and the means to bring the conflict in Ukraine to a “logical conclusion.”
Responding to a question about Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory
Putin said: “There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons &#8230; and I hope they will not be required.”
“We have enough strength and means to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the outcome Russia requires,” he said
Putin signed a revamped version of Russia’s nuclear doctrine in November 2024
spelling out the circumstances that allow him to use Moscow’s atomic arsenal
giving him that option in response to even a conventional attack backed by a nuclear power
<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-formally-lowers-threshold-for-using-nuclear-weapons">READ MORE: Putin formally lowers threshold for using nuclear weapons</a>
Putin also said Russia did not launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine — what he called a “special military operation” — in 2014
“The country was not ready for such a frontal confrontation with the entire collective West,” he said
He claimed also that Russia &#8220;sincerely sought to solve the problem of Donbas by peaceful means.”
Putin said that reconciliation with Ukraine was “inevitable.&#8221;
remain are at odds over competing ceasefire proposals
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a ceasefire is possible “even from today” if Moscow is serious about ending the war
Speaking Sunday at a joint news conference with Czech President Petr Pavel
Zelenskyy noted that Russia has ignored a U.S
proposal for a full ceasefire for 54 days and thanked the Czech Republic for backing Ukraine’s call for a 30-day ceasefire
“Putin is very eager to show off his tanks at the (Victory Day) parade,” Zelenskyy said
“but he should think about ending his war.”
Zelenskyy again expressed deep skepticism over Russia’s proposal of a 72-hour ceasefire in Ukraine to mark Victory Day in World War II
saying Moscow continues to launch hundreds of assaults despite publicly signaling interest in a partial truce
<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russia-offers-short-term-ceasefire-as-ukraine-demands-immediate-lasting-peace">WATCH: Russia offers short-term ceasefire as Ukraine demands immediate, lasting peace</a>
despite promises — including to the United States — Russia carried out more than a hundred assaults,” Zelenskyy said
referring to Russian attacks during the 30-hour Easter ceasefire unilaterally declared by Putin
Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for a more substantial 30-day pause in hostilities
The Kremlin said the Victory Day truce was on humanitarian grounds and will run from the start of May 8 and last through the end of May 10 to mark Moscow’s defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 — Russia’s biggest secular holiday
Zelenskyy thanked Pavel for his country’s military support and said Ukraine hopes to receive 1.8 million artillery shells in 2025 as part of a Czech-led initiative to supply military aid to Kyiv
launched in 2024 and supported by NATO allies
supplied Ukraine with 1.5 million artillery rounds last year
Zelenskyy also said he had discussed with Pavel &#8220;the next steps in the development of our aviation coalition&#8221;,&#8221; namely the creation of an F-16 training school
He said that such a base could not be opened in Ukraine because of Russian attacks
Firefighters work at the site of a Russian drone strike
A Russian drone attack overnight on the Ukrainian capital
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said Sunday
an 83-year-old resident of Kyiv&#8217;s Obolon district
“I was just sleeping when the house shook,&#8221; said Valentyna Fesiuk
an 83-year-old resident of Kyiv’s Obolon district
An apartment on the 12th floor caught fire,&#8221; she told The Associated Press
&#8220;I was covered with broken glass,” he said
The 54-year-old was frustrated with stalled peace negotiations: &#8220;They can’t agree on anything
and we are the ones who suffer the consequences.”
<a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russian-attacks-on-kyiv-complicate-u-s-efforts-to-end-war-in-ukraine">WATCH: Russian attacks on Kyiv complicate U.S. efforts to end war in Ukraine</a>
Daryna Kravchuk, an 18-year-old student in the district, described how “five to six minutes after the air raid was activated, we heard a strong impact, everything started shaking. &#8230; There were three strikes almost in a row after the air raid was activated.&#8221;
“It’s very scary to witness, we have been suffering from this for so long. People are just suffering all the time. &#8230; It’s still very hard to see our country constantly being destroyed,” she told the AP.
Two people were killed by Russian guided bombs Sunday, one each in the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions, local officials said.
Russia fired a total of 165 exploding drones and decoys overnight, Ukraine’s air force said. Of those, 69 were intercepted and a further 80 lost, likely having been electronically jammed. Russia also launched two ballistic missiles.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses shot down 13 Ukrainian drones overnight.
By Hanna Arhirova, Elise Morton, Associated Press
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Zelenskyy's comments come hours after he rejected the Russian president's declaration of a three-day truce over May 8-10
denouncing it as a "theatrical show" that hardly allows time to hold talks to end the war
Zelenskyy also said earlier during those comments that Ukraine "cannot bear responsibility for what happens" to foreign leaders attending the World War II commemoration ceremony in Moscow on May 9
Ukrainian officials said Russia had launched a drone attack on Kyiv overnight
sparking fires at residential buildings in parts of the city
This live updates article is now&nbsp;closed
Below, you can read a roundup of developments from&nbsp;<a class="internal-link" href="/en/russias-war-in-ukraine/t-60931789">Russia's war in Ukraine</a>&nbsp;on Sunday, May 4.
2025 Clashes with Russian forces in eastern Ukraine
says Kyiv's General StaffRussia is maintaining its offensive in eastern Ukraine with intensity
Ukraine's General Staff said in a Facebook post
Fighting has increased,&nbsp;notably&nbsp;around the strategic city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region
where Ukrainian forces said they had to fend off&nbsp;70 attacks on Sunday
Pokrovsk&nbsp;serves as a key transport hub and Moscow&nbsp;forces are reportedly edging closer
The information could&nbsp;not be independently verified.&nbsp;
Moscow's offensive comes despite ongoing diplomatic efforts by the US&nbsp;to arrange&nbsp;a ceasefire agreement between <a class="internal-link" href="/en/russia-ukraine-war-europe-nato-putin-trump/a-72390705">Russia&nbsp;and Ukraine</a>.
</a>05/04/2025May 4, 2025Czech president says Putin can agree to ceasefire with 'a single decision'Czech President Petr Pavel backed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's comments that called for&nbsp;<a class="internal-link" href="/en/us-ukraine-agree-on-30-day-ceasefire-proposal/a-71895802">increased pressure on Moscow to have it agree to an interim 30-day ceasefire</a>.
"If someone has all the cards in their hand to end the&nbsp;war then it is President Putin, who can do it with a single&nbsp;decision," Pavel&nbsp;told reporters.
The Czech government has been a firm&nbsp;backer of Kyiv's efforts to defend itself against Russian forces, and has led an initiative&nbsp;to&nbsp;supply Ukraine&nbsp;with large-calibre ammunition.
Zelenskyy, who is accompanied on the trip by first lady&nbsp;Olena Zelenska, will meet Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala on Monday,&nbsp;with the Czech ammunition drive among the topics on the agenda.
The Ukrainian leader said on X&nbsp;on Saturday&nbsp;he was preparing for upcoming foreign policy meetings with a focus on&nbsp;helping push Russia toward a ceasefire.
</a>05/04/2025May 4, 2025Zelenksyy says ceasefire with Russia 'possible' any moment with increased pressure on MoscowUkrainian President <a class="internal-link" href="/en/volodymyr-zelenskyy/t-65603134">Volodymyr Zelenskyy</a> said at a joint news conference with Czech President Petr Pavel that a ceasefire with Moscow&nbsp;would be possible "at any moment."
"We believe that without increased pressure
Russia will&nbsp;not take real practical steps to end the war
Today marks the&nbsp;54th day that Russia has ignored even the American proposal to&nbsp;completely cease fire," Zelenskyy&nbsp;told reporters
"We believe that a ceasefire is possible at any moment,&nbsp;even starting today
and should last at least 30 days to give&nbsp;diplomacy a real chance."
Ukraine accepted a <a class="internal-link" href="/en/ukraine-putin-will-analyze-zelenskyy-ceasefire-proposal/live-72295513">30-day ceasefire proposed by the United States in March</a>
following peace talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia
declared a three-day ceasefire&nbsp;over May 8-10 to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union and its allies over Nazi Germany in World War II
Zelenskyy rejected the offer,&nbsp;denouncing it as a "theatrical show"&nbsp;since three days offered no time for talks to end the more than three-year-old war that <a class="internal-link" href="/en/russias-war-in-ukraine/t-60931789">began with Russia invading Ukraine in February 2022.</a>
was met at the airport by Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky
who described him on social media as "the leader of the free world."
Zelenskyy, who was last received in Prague in 2023, is expected to meet with President <a class="internal-link" href="/en/czech-republic-ex-general-pavel-wins-first-round-of-presidential-election/a-64395190">Petr Pavel</a>, a former NATO general, on Sunday before a meeting with Prime Minister <a class="internal-link" href="/en/czech-republic-petr-fiala-named-new-prime-minister/a-59960529">Petr Fiala</a> and other senior Czech politicians on Monday
Likely to feature on the agenda is a <a class="internal-link" href="/en/eu-leaders-endorse-ukraine-ammunition-deal/a-65088136">Czech-led European initiative</a> to jointly procure millions of artillery shells from stocks around the world and deliver them to Ukraine
400,000 rounds were already provided in 2025
The Czech Republic has also provided military support to Kyiv in the form of tanks, armored vehicles and helicopters, and welcomed more than half a million <a class="internal-link" href="/en/ukrainian-refugees-in-the-czech-republic-the-integration-miracle/a-65002494">Ukrainian refugees</a>.
</a>05/04/2025May 4, 2025Putin: 'No need' for nuclear weapons in UkraineRussian President <a class="internal-link" href="/en/vladimir-putin/t-17449200">Vladimir Putin</a> on Sunday played down the prospect of deploying <a class="internal-link" href="/en/fact-check-is-russian-president-vladimir-putin-threatening-to-use-nuclear-weapons-v2/a-70819299">nuclear weapons</a> in <a class="internal-link" href="/en/ukraine/t-17295382">Ukraine</a> and said he hoped the necessity would not arise.
"There has been no need to use those weapons," he said in fragmented comments broadcast as part of a preview of an interview&nbsp;on state television marking his 25 years in power. "And I hope they will not be required," he added.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin and his generals and staff have made occasional references to Russia's nuclear arsenal, often in response to increased Western aid to Ukraine, such as the provision of long-range missiles which Kyiv has used to strike targets deep within Russia itself.
</a>05/04/2025May 4, 2025Putin: Reconciliation with Ukraine is 'a matter of time'Three years into <a class="internal-link" href="/en/russias-war-in-ukraine/t-60931789">Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine</a>, President <a class="internal-link" href="/en/vladimir-putin/t-17449200">Vladimir Putin</a> believes the brutal war will not damage relations with his neighbor, predicting reconciliation with <a class="internal-link" href="/en/ukraine/t-17295382">Ukraine</a> one day.
"It seems to me that this is inevitable despite the tragedy we are currently experiencing," he said in excerpts from an upcoming&nbsp;interview by Russian state television marking the 25th anniversary of his first presidency.
Putin was referring to the biggest European conflict since World War II, launched by Moscow as a "special military operation" in February 2022. "It's a matter of time," he added.
Putin said he believed Russia is still capable of attaining its war goals.
"We have enough strength and means to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the outcome Russia requires," he claimed.
</a>05/04/2025May 4, 2025China's Xi Jinping to visit RussiaChinese President <a class="internal-link" href="/en/xi-jinping/t-17449321">Xi Jinping</a> will visit Russia from May 7-10 to attend the celebrations of the&nbsp;80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany
Xi will discuss with Russian President <a class="internal-link" href="/en/vladimir-putin/t-17449200">Vladimir Putin</a> the development of the two countries' strategic partnership, as well as signing a number of "bilateral documents," the Kremlin said&nbsp;In a statement on Telegram.
</a>05/04/2025May 4, 2025Russia carries out drone attack on Kyiv, Ukraine saysUkraine said Russia had launched a drone attack on Kyiv overnight, causing damage to several buildings in the city.
Falling debris from destroyed drones sparked fires at residential buildings in Kyiv's Obolonskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts, Timur Tkachenko, head of Kyiv's military administration, said on social media.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on the Telegram messaging app that medics were called in to provide assistance in the Sviatoshynskyi district, west of the city center.
The full scale of the damage from the attack was not immediately clear.
There was no immediate comment from Moscow about the attack.
</a>05/04/2025May 4, 2025Ukraine cannot guarantee security at Moscow's WWII parade, Zelenskyy says<a class="internal-link" href="/en/volodymyr-zelenskyy/t-65603134">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy</a> said his country cannot guarantee the safety of leaders and officials from other countries taking part in the World War II commemoration ceremony in Moscow on May 9
Leaders of around 20 countries, including <a class="internal-link" href="/en/xi-jinping/t-17449321">Chinese President Xi Jinping</a>
have accepted invitations to join the May 9 celebration
"We cannot bear responsibility for what happens on the territory of the Russian Federation," Zelenskyy told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency
"They are ensuring your safety," Zelenskyy said
adding that Russia "may take various steps on its part
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova
"He is threatening the physical safety of veterans who will come to parades and celebrations on the holy day," she said
Trump raises Putin doubts after meeting at Pope's funeralTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that <a href="https://videojs.com/html5-video-support/" target="_blank">supports HTML5 video</a>
2025Zelenskyy rejects Russia's 3-day truce offerUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed a three-day truce declared by Russian leader Vladimir Putin as a "theatrical performance."
to coincide with the annual Victory Parade on Moscow's Red Square to mark the end of World War II
"This is more of a theatrical performance on his part
it is impossible to develop a plan for the next steps to end the war," Zelenskyy said
was ready for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire
Zelenskyy added that Ukraine would not be "playing games to create a pleasant atmosphere to allow for Putin's exit from isolation on May 9."
Zelenskyy: 'It is now truly an equal partnership'To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that <a href="https://videojs.com/html5-video-support/" target="_blank">supports HTML5 video</a>
</a>05/04/2025May 4, 2025Welcome to our coverage<a href="/en/srinivas-mazumdaru/person-35915288" class="author su3s3ra author-link l1amv4u6 btl76l3 e1eo633p wgx1hx2 b1ho1h07">Srinivas Mazumdaru</a> with AP, AFP, DPA, Reuters | Sean Sinico EditorWelcome to DW's coverage of developments from&nbsp;<a class="internal-link" href="/en/russias-war-in-ukraine/t-60931789">Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine</a>&nbsp;on Sunday
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed a three-day truce ordered by Russian leader Vladimir Putin that would coincide with Moscow's World War II commemorations
but said Kyiv is ready for a full ceasefire
which covers dissent in the Soviet Union and Russia today
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) on May 5 announced they had facilitated Russian journalist Ekaterina Barabash&#x27;s escape from Russia to France after she fled house arrest on April 21
 (Updated:  May 6, 2025 6:22 am)<a class="" href="/drones-target-moscow-second-night-in-a-row-russian-official-claims/">Ukraine&#x27;s drones target Moscow second night in a row, Russian official claims. </a>Debris from one of the drones reportedly fell on the Kashirskoye Highway
The reported attack comes just days before Russia&#x27;s Victory Day parade and three-day &quot;truce.&quot; 
A Russian drone attack on Odesa Oblast on May 5 killed one and caused damage to local infrastructure
&quot;We appreciate that Germany plays a pivotal role in supporting Ukraine throughout the years of war
Ukraine is also grateful for your personal commitment,&quot; President Volodymyr Zelensky said
MPs will be able to ask questions and learn more about the details of the agreement in meetings with Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko May 6-7
MP Serhii Sobolev told the news outlet Suspilne
The ratification vote is scheduled for May 8
Attacks against the border villages of Bilopillia and Vorozhba damaged civilian infrastructure and triggered emergency evacuations
the regional military administration reported
&quot;I look forward to working with President Erdogan on getting the ridiculous
war between Russia and Ukraine ended — now!&quot; U.S
Putin&#x27;s Victory Day truce &quot;doesn&#x27;t sound like much
if you know where we started from,&quot; Trump told reporters at the White House on May 5
Far-right Euroskeptic candidate George Simion
head of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR)
Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan placed second with 20.99% of the vote
and the candidate from the ruling coalition
&quot;It requires the continuation of contacts between Moscow and Washington
which have been launched and are now ongoing,&quot; Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said
set to operate within the Council of Europe
will focus on Russia&#x27;s political and military leaders
by <a rel="dofollow" class="MultiAuthorsSection_authorSectionName__bw3E0" href="/author/anna-fratsyvir/">Anna Fratsyvir</a>Posters in occupied Sevastopol promoting the re-election of Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb
2024 (Photo by Ulf Mauder/picture alliance via Getty Images)Russia has canceled this year&#x27;s Victory Day parade in the occupied Crimean port city of Sevastopol
Russian state-controlled media reported on May 5
Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said the <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/victory-day/">Victory Day</a> parade
to be held on May 9 to commemorate the Soviet victory in World War II
On May 9, <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/russia/">Russia</a> holds grandiose military parades in celebration of the end of World War II in Europe. <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/ukraine/">Ukraine</a> and most European nations mark May 8 as Victory in <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/europe/">Europe</a> Day
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 3 said <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/ukraine/">Ukraine</a> cannot guarantee the safety of foreign officials planning to attend Russia’s <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-not-responsible-for-safety-of-foreign-officials-traveling-to-moscow-for-may-9-parade-zelensky/">Victory Day</a> parade in <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/moscow/">Moscow</a> on May 9
warning Russia could orchestrate provocations
or other actions,&quot; and attempt to blame Ukraine
Russia is responsible for ensuring safety and security on its territory
The cancellation follows a reported Ukrainian sea drone <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-says-sea-drone-downs-russian-fighter-jet-in-world-first-strike/">strike</a> that destroyed a Russian Su-30 fighter jet near the port of Novorossiysk on May 2
an unprecedented operation described by Ukraine’s military intelligence as the first time a sea drone has downed a jet aircraft
The $50 million jet reportedly crashed into the sea
Sevastopol, a major naval base on the Black Sea, has been under Russian occupation since the illegal annexation of <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/crimea/">Crimea</a> in 2014
Anna Fratsyvir is a news editor at the Kyiv Independent
with a background in broadcast journalism and international affairs
she worked as a TV journalist at Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne
covering global politics and international developments
Anna holds a Bachelor&#x27;s degree in International Communications from Taras Shevchenko National University and is currently an MA candidate in International Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to unpack how the Trump administration&#8217;s ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality
and societal developments have shaped diplomacy
assessing how various pressures and intentions could redefine — or derail — pathways toward ending the war
Signing up for this newsletter means you agree to our <a href="https://warontherocks.com/terms-use-privacy-policies/">data policy</a>
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Isabel van Brugen is a Newsweek Reporter based in Kuala Lumpur
Her focus is reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war
Isabel joined Newsweek in 2021 and had previously worked with news outlets including the Daily Express
You can get in touch with Isabel by emailing <a href="mailto:i.vanbrugen@newsweek.com" target="_blank" data-mce-href="mailto:i.vanbrugen@newsweek.com">i.vanbrugen@newsweek.com</a>&nbsp;or by following her on X&nbsp;@isabelvanbrugen
either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter
or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources
Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content
Ukrainian forces are reported to have launched a new incursion into Russia's Kursk border region
where Kyiv officials had hoped to gain leverage in peace negotiations
Russian military Telegram channels reported that Ukrainian troops breached the Russian border near the village of Tetkino
Newsweek contacted Ukraine's Foreign Ministry for comment by email
The development comes just days after Russia claimed the recapture of the Kursk region
where Ukraine launched a surprise incursion last year
Kyiv successfully seizing a portion of the region would likely serve as a blow to Russian President <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/topic/vladimir-putin" data-sys="1" class="multivariate">Vladimir Putin</a> ahead of his May 9 Victory Day parade
where he has been touting his military's success throughout his full-scale invasion of his neighbor
Russian media outlets reported on Monday that a video has surfaced showing Ukrainian forces attempting an incursion toward the village of Tetkino in Kursk
The footage&mdash;released by the unofficial press service of Russia's Northern Group of Forces&mdash;purportedly shows Ukrainian military vehicles advancing toward the Russian border
before coming under fire from Russian troops
Euan MacDonald, a Kyiv-based journalist who posts regular updates on the war on X (formerly <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/topic/twitter" data-sys="1" class="multivariate">Twitter</a>)
said Ukraine could be vying to seize a sizable chunk of Russian territory ahead of Putin's annual Victory Day military parade on May 9
Victory Day is the annual commemoration of Nazi Germany's defeat during World War II
This year marks the 80th anniversary of the Victory Day celebrations
Putin typically uses the day to show off Russia's military power and invites foreign leaders to a parade in Red Square in Moscow
a Russian channel that posts updates on the war
more than 15 units of heavy equipment and quad bikes were used by Ukraine in the fresh push into Kursk
Ukraine's military has denied Russian claims that its military has pushed back all Ukrainian forces from Kursk
Ukrainian President <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/topic/volodymyr-zelensky" class="multivariate">Volodymyr Zelensky</a> and prominent government officials have previously insinuated that Kursk could be part of possible peace talks
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said during a national TV broadcast in August 2024 that the summer Kursk incursion would serve to boost Kyiv's position in potential future negotiations with Russia
attempts by Washington to broker peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are faltering
said on X: "Using Seym river to protect their left flank
and the Ukraine/Russia border on the right
they could nip off a 50km2 chunk of Russia with a defendable 6 km front in time for fascist Russia's Victory Day."
Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in a statement on <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/topic/facebook" data-sys="1" class="multivariate">Facebook</a> on Monday: "This [Kursk] operation
Thanks to our active operations in the Kursk region
we prevented the Russians from launching an offensive campaign in Sumy and Kharkiv regions
The buffer zone established by Ukraine's defense forces in the border areas remains relevant today."
Trump continues to mediate dialogue with Russia and Ukraine to bring an end to the conflict
could abandon peace talks if the two countries can't progress toward ending the conflict
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground
Newsweek is committed to journalism that's factual and fair
Hold us accountable and submit your rating of this article on the meter. <a class="fairnes-info" href="https://www.newsweek.com/fairness-meter" data-gtm-action="Fairness_Meter_original_Support_Page"></a>
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Reporting by Dmitry Antonov; Writing by Lucy Papachristou; editing by Guy Faulconbridge
Reporting by Kate Abnett in Brussels and Marwa Rashad in London; Editing by Nina Chestney
Kate Abnett covers EU climate and energy policy in Brussels, reporting on Europe’s green transition and how climate change is affecting people and ecosystems across the EU. Other areas of coverage include international climate diplomacy. Before joining Reuters, Kate covered emissions and energy markets for Argus Media in London. She is part of the teams whose reporting on Europe’s energy crisis won two Reuters journalist of the year awards in 2022.
</a><a class="author-bio__author-image__3uDqF" href="/authors/marwa-rashad/" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade"></a><a data-testid="Heading" tabindex="0" rel="author" href="/authors/marwa-rashad/" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" class="text__text__1FZLe text__dark-grey__3Ml43 text__medium__1kbOh text__heading_6__1qUJ5 heading__base__2T28j heading__heading_6__RtD9P author-bio__name__3-Uzf">Marwa Rashad</a>Thomson Reuters
Reporting by Steve Holland; Editing by Jacqueline Wong
Writing by Felix Light; editing by Guy Faulconbridge
Former CIA Director William Burns has said there was a real risk in late 2022 that Russia could use nuclear weapons against Ukraine
an assertion dismissed by Moscow.PUTIN IN POWERPutin
a former KGB lieutenant colonel who was handed the presidency on the last day of 1999 by an ailing Boris Yeltsin
is the longest serving Kremlin leader since Josef Stalin
who ruled for 29 years until his death in 1953.Russian dissidents - most now either in jail or abroad - see Putin as a dictator who has built a brittle system of personal rule reliant on sycophancy and corruption that is leading Russia towards decline and turmoil.Supporters cast Putin
who Russian pollsters say has approval ratings of above 85%
as a saviour who pushed back against an arrogant West and put an end to the chaos which accompanied the 1991 disintegration of the Soviet Union.In the carefully choreographed state television film
which gave viewers a rare look behind the notoriously closed life of the Russian president
Putin was shown offering chocolates and a fermented Russian milk drink to Pavel Zarubin
in his private Kremlin kitchen.Putin said that he first knelt in prayer during the 2002 Nord-Ost Moscow theater crisis
when Chechen militants took over 900 people hostage
More than 130 hostages were killed.&quot;I don&#x27;t feel like some kind of politician,&quot; Putin said of his 25 years in power as president and prime minister.&quot;I continue to breathe the very same air as millions of Russian citizens
God willing that it continues as long as possible
And that it doesn&#x27;t disappear.&quot;Reporting by Reuters; writing Guy Faulconbridge and Felix Light; editing by Mark Heinrich
Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Lucy Papachristou and Felix Light; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge
Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Ron Popeski and Mark Porter
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additional reporting by Alan Charlish; Editing by Toby Chopra
there is no “conflict” to negotiate — only war crimes to stop and an aggressor to defeat
Attendees during the funeral of 11-year-old Maksym Martynenko and his parents
killed by a Russian missile strike on April 13
by <a rel="dofollow" class="MultiAuthorsSection_authorSectionName__bw3E0 FullBleedPostDetails_author__15BPm" href="/author/andrew-chakhoyan/">Andrew Chakhoyan</a>News of Victoria Roshchyna’s brutal death at the hands of Russian captors shocked Ukraine and the world last week
Her body was returned mutilated — eyes gouged out
brain removed — bearing evidence of unspeakable brutality
This is what Russia does — and has done since its 2014 invasion of Ukraine
A day after the world discovered what had happened to <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/trumps-peace-effort-ignores-thousands-of-ukrainians-still-tortured-in-russian-captivity/">Roshchyna</a>, the White House celebrated a <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/whats-good-whats-bad-and-whats-next-for-the-us-ukraine-minerals-deal/">long-awaited minerals deal</a> signed with Kyiv
As diplomacy took center stage in Washington
This disconnect between gestures in D.C. and violence in Ukraine speaks to a deeper problem: the U.S. still treats Russia’s criminal war of choice like a policy dilemma to be <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-while-the-us-counts-votes-russia-counts-on-global-complacency/">managed</a>
not a strategic threat to be dealt with decisively before it spreads further
Since <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/donald-trump/">President Donald Trump</a> took office
the policy of carrots for the victim and sticks for the aggressor has morphed into a cold shoulder for Ukraine and olive branches for Russia
treating overtures from the White House not as goodwill to reciprocate but as weakness to exploit
In March, Ukrainian civilian casualties <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/trump-promised-peace-in-100-days-but-russias-violence-against-ukraine-has-only-escalated/">surged</a> by 50% compared to February and by 70% compared to March 2024
A missile strike on a playground in April killed 18 people
The UN now reports near-daily attacks on civilian areas
This isn’t peacemaking — it’s sadism in slow motion
For eleven years since Russia first invaded, successive U.S. Administrations have failed to grasp that there is <a href="https://www.kyivindependent.com/the-path-to-peace-in-europe/">no “conflict” in Ukraine</a> — no tension between two sides with competing claims
Just as there wasn’t a “conflict” in Poland in 1939 when the Nazis invaded from the west and the Soviets from the east
Poland didn’t need mediation between Warsaw and Berlin
Eighty years ago, the world learned — and then promptly forgot — a hard lesson: Unchecked aggression only grows stronger with time. America tried to stay out of the war. At the time, that seemed wise, even noble. But history proved otherwise: <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5144248-president-trump-give-peace-through-strength-a-chance-in-ukraine/">Wishing for peace</a> isn’t enough
and every one of them pulls America’s adversaries deeper into a war Russia claims to want to end
Washington is threatening to walk away from negotiations altogether
Ukraine wants peace more than we will ever know
It agreed to an unconditional ceasefire within 24 hours and accepted the minerals deal
Russia, meanwhile, has spent nearly two months dodging that same unconditional truce that the White House put on the table. Even an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/documents-show-differences-over-us-peace-drive-ukraine-2025-04-25/">agreement</a> that heavily favors Russia
The minerals deal was originally conceived as a mechanism to “collect” repayment for aid, and looked more like a shakedown than a strategic partnership. The final version, stripped of its worst elements, may have merit as a long-term investment. But its timing and prominence, set against fresh atrocities and America’s ceasefire efforts rejected by Russia, make it more of a distraction than a deterrent.
We are not ending a war — we are indulging a war criminal. And the longer we pretend this is a conflict to be negotiated, rather than a criminal aggression to be terminated, the more respect — and security — we will lose.
Andrew Chakhoyan is an academic director at the University of Amsterdam, teaching a course on multilateralism. Chakhoyan has served in the U.S. government, managing international development programs at the Millennium Challenge Corporation, and overseeing regional government affairs covering Ukraine and Russia at the World Economic Forum.
Gram Slattery and Steve Holland; Additional reporting by Tim Gardner; Editing by Don Durfee and Alistair Bell
Gram Slattery is a White House correspondent in Washington, focusing on national security, intelligence and foreign affairs. He was previously a national political correspondent, covering the 2024 presidential campaign. From 2015 to 2022, he held postings in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Santiago, Chile, and he has reported extensively throughout Latin America.
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Vučić was briefly admitted to the hospital on Saturday
while Fico acknowledged ongoing issues stemming from the assassination attempt he survived last year
either observed and verified directly by the reporter
Ukrainian attack over border largely destroys Russian electrical equipment plant; mayor reports drones headed for Moscow
says ZelenskyyUkrainian attack over border largely destroys Russian electrical equipment plant; mayor reports drones headed for Moscow
Zelenskyy added there would be a meeting on Monday with “Czech defence companies”
Discussions were under way for a Ukrainian-Czech pilot training school for F16 fighter jets
which could not be established in Ukraine “due to current security concerns”
president of the Czech Republic and a former Nato general
who said that “Putin can end the war with a single decision but he has not shown any willingness so far”
and the speakers of both parliament chambers said they would meet Zelenskyy in Prague on Monday
Ukrainian forces struck an electrical equipment factory in Russia’s Bryansk region close to the border with Ukraine
Ukraine said the factory specialised in the production of electronics for Russia’s defence industry
is no longer operational following the strike,” said Andriy Kovalenko
head of the government’s Centre for Countering Disinformation
a Telegram channel with links to Russia’s security services
said the factory produced electrical equipment and was hit by a Grad rocket system
Russian air defences destroyed four Ukrainian drones flying towards Moscow
A total of 26 Ukrainian drones targeted Russian territory overnight
including those aimed at Moscow as well as 17 over the Bryansk region and five over the Kaluga region
The aviation authority Rosaviatsia said it halted flights at Domodedovo airport
Zelenskyy said on Sunday that he did not believe Putin would adhere to a self-declared three-day truce to coincide with Russia’s “victory day” celebrations on 9 May
nor are these the first promises made by Russia to cease fire
we do not believe them.” Citing a military report
he said Russia had carried out more than 200 attacks on Saturday
that a ceasefire with Russia was possible at any moment and called on Kyiv’s allies to apply greater pressure on Moscow otherwise Putin would take no real steps to end the war
Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country has the “strength and means” to finish the war in Ukraine
as Moscow and Kyiv pushed for competing ceasefire proposals
Putin has proposed a three-day truce starting Thursday to mark World War II’s Victory Day, but <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/moscow-means-ukraine-war-logical-conclusion-vladimir-putin-nuclear-weapons-ceasefire-russia/" class="styles_linkEmbed__SNmaX" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Ukraine is deeply skeptical</a> of the proposal and has called to extend the cessation in fighting
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Ukraine fights uphill battle to bring them homeMay 5
2025 4:55 PM7 min readFor illustrative purposes: Dmytro Mosur
who lost his wife during an attack on Siverskotonets
holds his two-year-old twin daughters as they wait to be evacuated from Lysychansk
abducting a child is a serious crime punishable by years behind bars
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has identified over <a href="https://childrenofwar.gov.ua/en/">19,500 children</a> who have been forcibly <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/uprooted/">deported to Russia, Belarus, or occupied territories</a>
only 1,300 of them have been safely brought back
the children are placed in Russian families or camps
and are subjected to intense propaganda designed to erase their Ukrainian identity
Those who have returned report being punished for speaking Ukrainian and told that their homeland no longer wants them
That constitutes a “calculated strategy” aimed at “completely severing their connection to Ukraine,” says Daria Zarivna
an initiative launched by President Volodymyr Zelensky to coordinate the return of abducted children
Zarivna is also an advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff
For Ukraine, returning all these children is a <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/return-of-ukrainian-children-number-one-aim-in-recent-ceasefire-talks-zelensky-says/">key condition</a> for any future peace agreement with <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/russia/">Russia</a>
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has also taken up the matter. In March 2023, it issued <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-icc-issues-arrest-warrant-for-putin-russian-official-tied-to-ukrainian-children-deportations/">arrest warrants</a> for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Children&#x27;s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova over their involvement in abductions
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Commissioner for Children&#x27;s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova at the Kremlin in Moscow
(Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / AFP via Getty Images)But with no access to the children and little ability to determine their current locations
It now largely depends on its international allies to facilitate their return
Russia’s military offensive continues — as does its kidnapping of children
President Donald Trump returned to office in January
support for Ukraine has repeatedly come under question
Trump himself has even suggested Ukraine started the war with Russia
remains committed to bringing Ukrainian children home
On March 11, Ukraine raised the issue in Saudi Arabia during talks with the U.S. The meeting also included <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-talks-in-saudi-arabia-discussed-potential-territorial-concessions-rubio-confirms/">discussions</a> of potential &quot;territorial concessions&quot; as part of a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow
Despite the White House’s push to rapidly end the war
Zarivna says the humanitarian component was treated as a “crucial element&quot; in the talks
&quot;We all agreed that it should never be excluded [from the agenda],&quot; she told the Kyiv Independent
Trump and Zelensky also discussed the abductions during their March 19 phone call. Trump <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/03/statement-from-secretary-rubio-and-nsc-waltz-on-call-with-zelenskyy/">promised</a> &quot;to work closely with both parties to help make sure those children were returned home,&quot; the White House said
Mike Walz, then the U.S. national security advisor, said in March that returning the children was among several &quot;<a href="https://kyivindependent.com/confidence-building-measure-mike-waltz-on-abducted-ukrainian-children/">confidence-building measures</a>&quot; that were under discussion
Zarivna emphasizes that the goal is to make the issue &quot;depoliticized,&quot; meaning the children should not be exchanged with Ukraine in return for &quot;nuclear power plants or territory.&quot;
A Ukrainian woman meets her son after he and over a dozen other Ukrainian children were brought back from Russian-held territory to Kyiv
(Sergei Chuzavkov / AFP via Getty Images)&quot;Doing so would only incentivize Russia to abduct even more children,&quot; she explains
&quot;The children must be returned unconditionally
in accordance with international humanitarian law.&quot;
Former Children’s Rights Commissioner Mykola Kuleba echoes her point
a charity that rescues children deported to Russia
&quot;Children should not be treated as bargaining chips,&quot; Kuleba says
legal advisor at the Regional Center for Human Rights
says this issue “radically changes” how Ukrainians should view peace talks with Russia
“How can we believe any promise from Russia
if it won&#x27;t return the children it abducted?” she asked
“If Russia can&#x27;t follow through on obligations it already agreed to long ago
including those under the law of Geneva and the Hague
why should we trust it with new commitments?&quot; 
a Ukrainian official familiar with the matter told the Kyiv Independent that Trump aimed to achieve a “victory” in Ukraine to mark his first 100 days in office
It could potentially involve a ceasefire and the return of some civilians and children from Russia
Kuleba believes that Trump could play a key role in returning the children
That might also help the government uncover crucial details about them and establish a mechanism for their rescue
we would establish the full scale of the catastrophe
and then we could help them,&quot; he suggests
Children from a local school&#x27;s patriotic club examine Kalashnikov rifles and a Makarov pistol near a road sign reading &quot;Volnovakha,&quot; stolen from Ukraine
The event promoted support for the Russian army fighting in Ukraine
(Contributor / Getty Images)The Ukrainian official familiar with the matter says that U.S
negotiations with Russia about returning the children were still ongoing
What happens next largely hinges on the pressure the U.S
Russia has shown no signs of de-escalating its military offensive
And it continues to illegally deport Ukrainian children
While Ukraine has identified 19,546 abducted children, the actual number may be much higher. Russia claims to have <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/russian-official-reports-deportation-of-700-000-ukrainian-children/">brought over 700,000 children</a> to its territory since Feb
Measuring that number has only grown more difficult
After the ICC issued arrest warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova
Russia halted all public reporting on the number of deported Ukrainian children
Identifying and tracking abducted Ukrainian children is also challenging because Moscow deliberately changes their names
and disperses them throughout its vast territory
The researchers also found that Russian child placement databases have falsely registered these children as born in Russia
One of the most striking cases occurred in 2023 when Russian lawmaker Sergei Mironov and his wife<a href="https://t.me/dmytro_lubinetzs/4373"> adopted</a> a 10-month-old Ukrainian girl
who had been forcibly taken from an orphanage in the then-occupied Kherson
According to Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets
Marharyta Prokopenko &quot;became Marina Mironova.&quot; Rashevska says that
the only way to prove the girl&#x27;s identity is through a DNA test
which is impossible while she remains in Russia
Abducted children are also regularly subjected to military-style reeducation programs aimed at not only erasing their Ukrainian identity but also preparing them for future service in the Russian military
Rashevska says that these militarization efforts extend to both abducted children and the 1.6 million kids living in areas Russia has occupied
Russian President Vladimir Putin poses with children of Russian officers involved in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and with participants of youth and student organizations at Red Square in Moscow
(Contributor / Getty Images)&quot;This means they are being militarized
with Russian citizenship being forced upon them,” she says
This group of children must also be (discussed during) negotiations
with guarantees that they will be treated as Ukrainians
Russia&#x27;s militarization of children is evident in the expanding reach of Yunarmiya (“Young Army”)
a state-funded organization that teaches children military skills and fosters loyalty to the Kremlin
which systematically prepares kids for service in the Russian military
there was one center in each occupied region except for Zaporizhia Oblast
Rashevska expects the number of centers to grow
Russia can rapidly achieve its goal of strengthening its mobilization reserve and military potential,&quot; she says
Kuleba warns that if these children aren&#x27;t brought back soon
they risk becoming part of Russia&#x27;s war machine in future conflicts against Ukraine and the West
&quot;Through militarizing and brainwashing children
Russia could easily achieve an army of three million within five years,&quot; he says
Daria Shulzhenko is a reporter at the Kyiv Independent. She has been a lifestyle reporter at the Kyiv Post until November 2021. She graduated from Kyiv International University with a bachelor’s in linguistics, specializing in translation from English and German languages. She has previously worked as a freelance writer and researcher.
World affairs editor <a href="/author/sam-kiley">Sam Kiley</a> has been covering Ukraine since the Russian invasion of 2014
Here he looks at the current state of the conflict
the likelihood of a lasting ceasefire and what Russian leader Vladimir Putin is planning next
Dismissing <a href="/topic/vladimir-putin">Vladimir Putin</a>’s offer of a <a href="/news/world/europe/putin-72-hour-ceasefire-ukraine-russia-b2741490.html">brief ceasefire in May</a> as yet “another attempt at manipulation” is an understatement. The Russian president is – according to the former head of MI6 – intent on taking much more than just <a href="/topic/ukraine">Ukraine</a>
Far from being worried by recent mini-threats from <a href="/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> to increase sanctions or stung by the <a href="/news/world/europe/trump-putin-peace-talks-ukraine-war-b2728275.html">US president’s irritation</a> at Russia’s stalling over a ceasefire
Such behaviour chimes with the uncharacteristically <a href="/news/world/europe/war-putin-trump-mi6-panel-conversation-b2721259.html">stark message from ex-spy chief </a>Sir Alex Younger who
Putin’s latest play is a three-day ceasefire from 8 May to mark the Russian anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. His <a href="/news/world/europe/putin-easter-ceasefire-truce-ukraine-b2736332.html">last Easter ceasefire was ignored</a> by his own troops
<a href="/topic/ukraine">Ukraine</a>’s President <a href="/topic/volodymyr-zelensky">Volodymyr Zelensky</a> has
called his bluff by asking for an unconditional cessation of hostilities while wider talks get underway
But that idea has been hobbled by American negotiators who have already adopted most of Russia’s aims as first principles ahead of any talks. Lately these have, again, included repeated statements by Trump that <a href="/topic/crimea">Crimea</a>, captured by Russia in 2014, was<a href="/news/world/europe/crimea-ukraine-war-trump-putin-zelensky-peace-b2742007.html"> a lost cause for Kyiv</a>
Zelensky will be buoyed by the<a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-minerals-trump-zelensky-russia-b2742893.html"> signing of a minerals deal </a>with Trump after a flurry of diplomacy between Kyiv and Washington
ensuring that the US has some financial skin in the game when it comes to the future of his country
Any US military aid, from whenever the deal is ratified by the Ukrainian parliament, will be assigned a dollar value and given a credit in a joint US-<a href="/topic/ukraine">Ukraine</a> investment fund in a minerals-for-weapons swap
It will only be valid on future resource exploitation
so the US has a financial incentive to continue to back Ukraine
to secure an agreement to hold on to the parts of Ukraine it has already captured
The US and Russia have agreed in advance that Zelensky will have to accept that from the very start of any discussion
the Danish foreign intelligence service agrees: “The war in Ukraine will define European security
Russia will further intensify its use of hybrid means
including sabotage and malign influence campaigns
Russia is likely to become more willing to challenge Nato countries with its military means
the military threat from Russia will increase over the coming years.”
soldiers are exhausted and battered but also deeply frustrated by the assumption that they are losing a war of attrition and that a Russian victory is inevitable
The Independent takes a closer look at the state of the conflict
the motivations on either side and its wider impact on the world
Three years since the full-scale invasion by Moscow’s forces
appear muddled about whether Ukraine is losing
The evolution of Ukraine’s military since 2022 can be characterised by an initial period of daring incompetence followed by dashing success but
as Ukraine settled into dependency on Nato
this moved to failed incursions and subsequent longer-term despondency
to conclude that Ukraine will have to accept the loss of some of its land in return for peace
even as European nations rush to fill the gaps left by a newly unreliable former ally in Washington
The point they are missing is that Ukraine is now leading the world and winning the latest cutting-edge phase – the drone war
Misled by his own intelligence services who were convinced that invading Russian forces would be greeted with flowers, Putin ordered his army into a<a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-kiev-war-russia-putin-b2022057.html"> full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022</a>
Having been at war there since 2014 after seizing <a href="/topic/crimea">Crimea</a> and joining proxy forces in the eastern Donbas provinces
Ukrainians remember <a href="/topic/crimea">Crimea</a>
They have harnessed the knowledge that Moscow’s “fraternal” love for the mythical homeland of the Rus people translated into genocide in the 1930s
with the deaths of more than three million and up to seven million Ukrainians during the Holodomor
the deliberate mass starvation of Ukrainians by the Soviet Union
Kyiv’s military structures may have been woefully unprepared to defend the nation at the start of 2022
as Putin’s military formations marched into Ukraine
small groups of volunteers leapt into pickup trucks and rushed to meet the invading columns
Old ladies rained Molotov cocktails onto armoured columns in Sumy
lost Russian paratroopers were wounded by partisans and beaten to death by babushkas with broom handles
Russia’s two-pronged attacks on Kyiv, from the north and east, <a href="/news/world/americas/us-politics/russia-ukraine-conflict-kyiv-us-b2025988.html">stalled and turned tail</a>
In the south, <a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-capture-russia-military-b2035931.html">Kherson fell fast to invaders</a> coming from Crimea
But they could not advance much further – held back by Ukrainian villagers and soldiers who combined to drive the Russians into the trenches
Ukraine was rapidly supplied with air defences
Ukraine was given access to Nato’s best intelligence and set about destroying Russia’s command and control systems – including as many generals as they could find
Ukraine was not given the long-range weapons
cruise missiles and ATACMS that could have delivered victory quickly and broken the back of the Russian army at its most vulnerable
<a href="/topic/emmanuel-macron">Emmanuel Macron</a> summed up the strategic straitjacket that Ukraine was forced to wear
“We must not humiliate Russia so that the day the fighting stops
we can build a way out through diplomatic channels,” the French president said in June 2022 – as evidence of Russian war crimes was being collected in Bucha and Irpin on the outskirts of Kyiv
Many leaders and generals feared that if Russia was defeated
chaos inside the Russian Federation would follow and Putin’s grip on power would be lost
They feared what the military calls “catastrophic success”
Whitehall mandarins opined on the dangers of the federation falling apart
They were afraid of an outright Ukrainian victory because the Russian Federation is an empire held together by fear
the occupying Russian infantry units in Kherson province were largely Buryats
a Siberian people living under Moscow’s rule
Locals told of how few of them could even speak Russian
Moscow rules over at least 190 nationalities
might welcome independence and have provided large amounts of the men fed into the drawn-out Ukrainian war that the Kremlin started
So, Kyiv fought on with one hand behind its back. In the late summer of 2022, it launched a devastating counterattack to free Izium in the north and later <a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kherson-liberation-withdrawal-b2223131.html">reclaimed the city of Kherson in the south</a>
This was the last act of the dashing period of Ukraine’s defence
Just as Ukraine had blocked the Russian advance
and adapt tactics mostly relying on Soviet-era mass attacks in which waves of Russian troops throw themselves against Ukrainian forces in what are known as “meat grinder assaults”
They concentrated on towns like Bakhmut in the east
One foreign volunteer said during the height of the battle for Bakhmut
where thousands of both sides were killed and which now remains under Russian control
that he was “shooting 20-40 Russians a day and they just keep coming”
The Independent knows from eyewitness reporting that Russian casualties have been huge on the eastern front
Russia has a population of about 144 million
Russia has three times the manpower and can outlast Ukraine
It also enjoyed a vastly superior firepower
Ukrainian frontline troops often spoke of a 20:1 advantage to Russia in the volume of artillery fired
Estimates of troop and equipment losses on both sides are wildly inaccurate and do not reflect who is winning or losing
Numbers of Russian casualties vary hugely from 95,000 killed
according to the UK government in May last year and double that in some Ukrainian media
In Ukraine, Zelensky claimed in December last year that <a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-casualties-update-zelensky-putin-b2661092.html">43,000 soldiers had died</a> and the UN reported 12,00 civilians killed
One wild Russian estimate said a million Ukrainians had died
showing the truth of the figures is almost impossible to assess
In war what matters is who controls what territory
Russia has made tiny tactical advances in Ukraine over the past year while Ukraine has changed the very nature of the war itself
Ukraine has received enough equipment from allies like the US
France and Poland to bleed Russia but not to win
The British media focused on <a href="/news/world/europe/british-challenger-tanks-ukraine-russia-b2309338.html">14 Challenger 2 tanks sent to Ukraine</a> in the spring of 2023 as if they were strategic weapons
They’re good tanks but 14 isn’t quite a full squadron
Ukraine was under heavy internal and external pressure to complete another dashing blow against Putin’s forces that summer
Nato generals advised that it send the Russians reeling and
observed that Ukraine did not have the air force
or the three-to-one troop ratio superiority Nato troops would need for such an attack
A series of assaults in the east and south not far from Zaporizhzhia in a drive towards Crimea
Ukraine’s supporters began to talk of the need to accept the inevitable – a partition of the country leaving Russia with the 20 per cent it had already taken
said that Ukraine should get the aid it needed but that it would be “Ukraine that decides what kind of compromises they’re willing to do … to achieve an acceptable result around the negotiating table”
his political opponents and the Ukrainian parliament have been adamant that the only acceptable outcome to the war is Russian withdrawal
The following year, in August 2024, Ukraine launched the costly but <a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kursk-putin-zelensky-b2597962.html">successful assault into Kursk</a>
The dramatic move was done without informing allies and made use of the very limited agreement to
allow Ukraine to fire its US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory itself
The blow was humiliating for Putin who by now was spending 40 per cent of the Russian federal budget on the war
His control of the media and the narrative over the war in Ukraine has maintained popular support for the Kremlin’s long-standing tenant
But there can be no doubt that even efforts on the battlefields to burn and bury Russian dead
Ukraine’s GDP took a 30 per cent hit after the full-scale Russian invasion of 2022
has since recovered to around 3 per cent but is struggling to get its debt obligations under control and may default this month on $600m in national debt payments
To boost his troops, in April, Putin announced a renewed <a href="/bulletin/news/ukraine-war-draft-putin-russia-b2725123.html">conscription drive for 160,000 men</a>
The Kremlin’s forces have been made up of conscripts
contract soldiers – who sign up for salaries of up to $2,000 a month which is often far better than available in civilian life – prisoners and lately North Korean troops
Several hundred <a href="/news/world/europe/chinese-soldiers-ukraine-captured-putin-zelensky-b2731414.html">Chinese mercenaries</a> have also been in action alongside small numbers of African recruits
Ukraine won’t reveal how many people it has conscripted and has kept the 18-25-year-old cohort out of the realm of compulsory military service
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is 43
But tensions have been increasing over conscription because draft dodgers have been snatched off the street
which has offered organised criminals a lucrative line in extortion
Russia is short on artillery shells and guns
supplying ammunition that Ukrainians deride as “worse than useless” as firing them reveals artillery locations while the erratic flight of the missiles means they do no damage
Some 12,000 <a href="/news/world/europe/russia-putin-north-korea-kursk-ukraine-war-b2715681.html">North Korean troops were sent to reinforce</a> Kursk and then thrown into the offensive earlier this year
A small number have been taken prisoner and video evidence shows large numbers dying in mass attacks
Ukrainian soldiers spoke of being overwhelmed by the surge in numbers sent by Russia into Kursk and by the use of drones guided by fibre optic cables
rather than radio signals which can be disrupted
One key area where Ukraine now dominates is the <a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-drones-warfare-rapper-yarmak-b2693315.html">new world of drone warfare</a>
It has conquered the Black Sea and driven Moscow’s navy back into its ports
Kyiv used home-grown Neptune missiles to sink the Moskva, Russia’s vast cruiser in April 2022. But since then, it has pioneered the use of underwater, surface and aerial drones that have meant that Kyiv, which has no navy to speak of, <a href="/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-black-sea-agreement-zelensky-putin-ceasefire-b2721639.html">rules the Black Sea</a>
Ukraine makes more than 90 per cent of the four million drones it claims to obtain each year
Long-range drones have repeatedly hit Moscow
They evade air defences to target Russia’s energy infrastructure and supply lines
Drone commander Major “Kalas” told The Independent that frontline operations were now dramatically different from when Russia was able to throw huge volumes of armour and men at Ukrainian trenches
“The <a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-drones-shahed-kyiv-b2689201.html">drones have changed everything</a>
They now send small groups of infantry forward
they mostly get killed and a few get into a hole
has been decreasing throughout the conflict,” the US general and Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe
told the Senate defence committee in early April
We see a military that started pretty much from an almost cold start
but not at the scale we began to after the war
which Russia claims to have largely captured
drone video shows small groups of soldiers on both sides fighting in a landscape of rubble
isolated and desperately scanning the skies for the telltale buzz of a killer drone
Similar images may one day emerge in Lithuania, Moldova, even Poland, if Putin prevails in Ukraine. The US is <a href="/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-trump-peace-talks-war-b2744049.html">no longer prepared to shoulder the burden</a> of Europe’s defence and is backing away from Kyiv
The US has allocated about €114bn (£97bn) to Ukraine since 2022
behaved as if he has changed sides and favours Russia
He even excluded Moscow from his latest round of worldwide tariffs
He’s demanded a ceasefire on attacks against energy and in the Black Sea
He’s said that the Kremlin could hang onto the land Russia has captured in Ukraine and that Kyiv can forget about joining Nato
and about any US aid unless it does Trump’s bidding
But analysis by the Kiel Institute concludes that the cost of replacing all US military support for Ukraine “would be possible with relatively little additional effort”
European governments contribute about €44bn annually to Ukraine’s defence
or roughly 0.1 per cent of their combined GDP
a relatively modest fiscal commitment,” the study found
Which is why backing Ukraine is Europe’s top priority now
head of the Royal United Services Institute and a former US staffer in Nato
“It might be enough to achieve his objectives just to take pieces of Ukraine, take the ports, take the highways, take critical infrastructure – that is really important to Ukraine’s survival as an independent state,” <a href="/news/world/europe/war-putin-trump-mi6-panel-conversation-b2721259.html">she told Independent TV</a>.
“That might be enough to achieve his objectives of preventing them from ever becoming members of Nato or the EU.”
This scenario is alarmingly close to the end-state that the US (and Russia) want to see in the peace proposals they’ve been tabling ahead of talks.
“Putin has a secondary objective which people sometimes overlook, and that is to challenge and undermine Nato and the European Union,” she said. “He is going to test the boundaries of what we call Article 5, which is the feeling or the commitment that an attack against one Nato ally is an attack against all of them. 
“So, we’ve got that primary objective of preventing Ukraine’s full Western integration and viability as an independent state. And then we have that secondary, probably bigger objective of undermining Western structures.”
Putin has already stated work on “undermining the West” with cyberattacks and information warfare causing universal doubt in a “post-truth” age. Trump’s tearing up of Nato relationships, threats to annex Canada and Greenland, and causing economic turmoil also help the Kremlin. 
Putin is waiting for the next stage – and he will pounce when things fall apart and the centre cannot hold.
govt and politics"}],"mantis":[{"label":"law_govt_politics","score":0.870377},{"label":"386","score":0.983669},{"label":"389","score":0.981436},{"label":"businesscap","score":0.857912},{"label":"NewsJunkies","score":0.857912},{"label":"SME","score":0.857912}]},"sentiment":"negative"},"article":{"title":"Putin’s endgame in Ukraine – and why it won’t finish there","description":"World affairs editor Sam Kiley has been covering Ukraine since the Russian invasion of 2014
a middle-aged woman in a bright red coat walked over to a group of Ukrainian soldiers standing outside a cafe in the city of Mykolaiv
and clearly didn’t think much of the woman as she placed the bag she was carrying on the ground
the bomb hidden inside the bag was remotely detonated
killing her and three of the Ukrainian soldiers instantly
a coordinated messaging campaign got underway across Russian media
including the state-controlled Izvestia newspaper
driven to murderous insanity by the grief of losing her only son to the war after he was forcibly mobilized by the Ukrainian authorities
As is the case with most Russian influence operations
The killed soldiers didn’t work for any recruitment office; they were all members of Ukraine’s demining corps
a 42-year-old mother from the city of Horishni Plavni in Poltava oblast
had left her very-much-alive infant child in a nearby hostel when she left on what became a &#8220;suicide bombing&#8221; mission
Recruited on the social media platform Telegram
Her Russian intelligence contact told her merely that she was to deliver a large amount of money to a certain location
The bomb had been prepared by a group of teenagers
They’d built the device under instruction from their Russian handlers and handed it off to its unwitting transporter
Russian intelligence tracked the woman’s arrival at the target site and detonated the package remotely
(The Ukrainian government has not released the names of any of the bombers or victims mentioned in this article.)
were walking near the railway station in the city of Ivano-Frankivsk
in a part of western Ukraine largely spared from the daily carnage of war
when the improvised explosives they were carrying detonated
The older of the two was killed instantly; his younger friend was hospitalized with severe injuries
which they’d assembled under the supervision of their Russian handlers
had been constructed with GPS tracking and remote detonation
As the two teenagers walked close to their target
who had initially recruited the pair with the prospect of earning “easy money” for simply making and planting the bomb
according to the Ukrainian security services
The teenagers hadn’t realized they were going to be part of the butcher’s bill
These attacks were just the latest examples of a tactic increasingly used by Russian intelligence in Ukraine
which is reminiscent of the more grisly actions of militant groups: turning gullible or desperate civilians into human weapons
“It’s al Qaeda and ISIS-level tactics,” said Ed Bogan
a former CIA officer with extensive experience dealing with both Russia and international Islamist groups
“There are no limits to what the Russians will do now.”
“The Russian intelligence services consider such people ‘one-time’ assets and have never been worried about them,” one Ukrainian intelligence officer told New Lines
“Teenagers and young people are easier to recruit for such actions
when you characterize what they’re being asked to do as some sort of game.”
So pervasive is this gruesome tactic that the SBU
and National Police have taken to visiting schools and lecturing Ukrainian students on the dangers of foreign recruitment under the rubric
“Burn the FSB Officer,” referring to Russia&#8217;s domestic security service
“How do you know that they are trying to use you?” National Police spokesperson Yulia Girdvilis asked a classroom in Kyiv recently
a stranger writes to you on social media and offers ‘easy money’ for completing a simple task
They hint to you that ‘it&#8217;s not scary
nothing bad will happen.’ Russian agents can also resort to intimidation or blackmail
transmitting information or even terrorist attacks.”&nbsp;
These attacks have occurred all over Ukraine.&nbsp;
a 21-year-old unemployed man from Zhytomyr took an explosive device into a military enlistment office in the western Ukrainian city of Rivne
His Russian handlers monitored him via a livestream from his mobile phone
a man brought a package into a recruitment center in Kamianets-Podilskyi
As soon as he handed it over to Ukrainian soldiers at the security checkpoint outside
a 14-year-old schoolgirl in Ternopil was approached on Telegram by Russian recruiters offering her money
and the schoolgirl refused to go along with the plan
Russian agents hacked her phone to force her cooperation
threatening to release intimate photographs of her onto the internet
assembled an improvised explosive device as instructed and attempted to leave it near a local police station
but was detained by Ukrainian security services.&nbsp;
“It&#8217;s an incredibly sinister and insidious tactic but
a Ukrainian expert in Russian hybrid warfare told New Lines
comparing the methods to those used by violent Islamist groups targeting the West
“It’s similar to tactics used by al Qaeda or Islamic State
except the people Russia recruits don’t know they’re going to blow themselves up
And they are happy to use the most vulnerable people — women or children — in such attacks
Ukrainian authorities believe the choice of targets — military facilities and recruitment centers — is partly designed to exploit existing tensions in wartime Ukraine
where military recruiters often come under enormous criticism
for their heavy-handed approaches to ensuring military-aged men are enlisting
Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 are considered eligible for military service and are banned from leaving the country while men between 25 and 60 are actively subject to mobilization.&nbsp;
the the head of the Ukrainian National Police
together with the [Security Service of Ukraine]
clearly understand that this is a specific attack by the Russian special services with the aim of creating a false opinion in society
destabilizing the situation and creating a negative attitude towards the Security and Defense Forces.”
Russian attempts to exacerbate preexisting tensions in society via Telegram-incited active measures are not limited to Ukraine.&nbsp;
Russian-linked Telegram channels attempted to incite arson attacks on mosques and the spraying of racist graffiti
Such attacks would be rewarded with cryptocurrency
The British government is taking such threats seriously
warning in October 2024 that Russia’s military intelligence agency
was on a mission to cause “sustained mayhem on British and European streets.” 
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022
Moscow’s intelligence services and its various proxies have been responsible for at least 59 incidents
particularly on sites where materiel destined for Ukraine is manufactured or stockpiled
(Czech officials have publicly put the number of attacks in Europe higher: 100 attributed to Russia in 2024
These incidents have occurred all across Europe
according to a recent investigation by the Associated Press
The GRU was also behind an ambitious plot to place incendiary devices aboard several cargo planes en route to North America
one of which blew up on the tarmac at a DHL logistics hub in Leipzig
according to Western intelligence officials
Behind much of the carnage are veterans of GRU Unit 29155
an elite black ops group responsible for poisoning Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury in 2018 as well as a host of bombings on Bulgarian and Czech weapons and ammunition depots dating back over a decade
Unit 29155 has also been implicated in recruiting Afghans to pay Taliban fighters to target U.S
and coalition forces in Afghanistan prior to the 2022 American withdrawal from the country
Unit 29155 has been working under a new parent organization within the GRU known as the Department of Special Tasks — a name reminiscent of a Cold War-era KGB department responsible for assassinating Ukrainian nationalists and
exiled Russian revolutionary Leon Trotsky in Mexico.&nbsp;
a former CIA officer who has written extensively about Russian active measures
“These attacks are designed to be deniable and below the threshold of what we generally consider an act of war
these attacks are very much part of their war plans
Hybrid attacks that combine kinetic actions with information operations are weapons Russia is using against us
They do it to destabilize the Western alliance from the inside
in order to lower Western resolve to support Ukraine.”
the GRU is believed to collaborate with other Russian intelligence agencies
Russian psychological operations are conducted by different teams
including the FSB and information units embedded with the Russian infantry and private military companies
“What we see in the news is just the tip of the iceberg,” Tsybulska told New Lines
explaining that there have been hundreds of such incidents
in some cases teenagers are being paid small amounts of money to carry out less significant acts of sabotage
And the pool of potential recruits is huge
“Almost all children in Ukraine use Telegram,” she said
Such attempts often target those on the fringes of Ukrainian society who are more easily manipulated by the prospect of fast money: the poor
those with substance abuse problems.&nbsp;
A nationwide campaign has now been launched by the Security Service of Ukraine in schools
warning children of the danger of such Russian active measures and imploring them to report any such approaches to Ukrainian authorities.&nbsp;
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When Russian President Vladimir Putin was sworn in for his first term on May 7
few analysts could have predicted that the 47-year-old democratically elected leader would one day seize control of the Russian state and remake Moscow into a revanchist power
“[I]f you had asked me or basically anyone whether Vladimir Putin would become the longest-serving Russian leader since Joseph Stalin, the response would have likely been either incredulous silence or uproarious laughter,” Susan B. Glasser, FP’s former editor in chief, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/07/how-putin-changed-russia-forever/">wrote</a> in 2020
“Putin’s main qualifications for the job … were that he was: young
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Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn speaks at Harvard University on June 8
where he said that the most noticeable thing about the West is what he called &#8220;decline in courage.&#8221; Bettmann Archive/Getty Images 
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by <a rel="dofollow" class="MultiAuthorsSection_authorSectionName__bw3E0" href="/author/kyivindependentnews/">The Kyiv Independent news desk</a>U.S
President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at Macomb Community College in Michigan
(Scott Olson/Getty Images)American officials prepared a number of options for U.S
President Donald Trump to increase economic pressure on Moscow in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin continued reluctance to end the war against Ukraine
Shortly after his inauguration, Trump threatened to <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/trump-urges-russia-to-make-a-deal-on-ukraine-warns-of-harsher-sanctions/">impose tariffs and sanctions</a> on Russia to force Moscow into negotiations
saying &quot;we can do it the easy way or the hard way.&quot; So far
Trump recently questioned Russia&#x27;s intentions to achieve peace given Russian ongoing attacks against Ukraine
Kyiv has repeatedly urged Trump to increase pressure on Russia
It is unknown what options are on the table. The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-02/trump-team-has-prepped-options-for-pressuring-russia-to-end-war">sources told Bloomberg</a> that Trump is yet to make a decision
as diplomatic efforts to end the war are still underway
A day prior, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said that the U.S. remains committed to supporting peace efforts in Ukraine but will <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/us-will-step-aside-as-mediator-stay-engaged-in-ukraine-peace-process-state-department-says/">scale back its direct role as mediator</a>
 The remarks reflect a significant shift in Washington&#x27;s approach after months of stalled diplomacy aimed at brokering a <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/ceasefire/">ceasefire</a> in Russia&#x27;s full-scale war against <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/tag/ukraine/">Ukraine</a>
intensified its diplomatic outreach earlier this year
including negotiating proposals for a 30-day ceasefire and partial truces aimed at halting attacks on civilian energy infrastructure
Moscow has <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/putin-ready-for-ceasefire-but-demands-guarantees-depriving-ukraine-of-aid/">rejected</a> these initiatives
and Russian forces have intensified strikes across Ukraine
Kyiv has accepted the U.S.-backed ceasefire plan and continues to demand an unconditional cessation of hostilities
Republican Senator <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/republican-graham-claims-72-senators-back-bone-crushing-sanctions-on-russia-allies/">Lindsey Graham</a> said on May 1 that at least 72 senators are ready to vote for sweeping new sanctions and tariffs against Russia
should Putin continue to avoid serious peace negotiations
We are the news team of the Kyiv Independent
We are here to make sure our readers get quick
essential updates about the events in Ukraine
Feel free to contact us via email with feedback and news alerts
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“The great nations of Europe do not destroy the trade of the small nations for their own benefit
because they cannot; and the Dutch citizen
whose Government possesses no military power
whose government possesses an army of two million men
and a great deal better off than the Russian
whose Government possesses an army of something like four million
All of which carries with it the paradox that the more a nation’s wealth is militarily protected the less secure does it become.”
That is a key passage from <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/38535/38535-h/38535-h.htm">The Great Illusion</a> by Norman Angell (1872-1967)
which became very influential just before the outbreak of the Second World War
could serve as a mirror for all those saying that European rearmament is useless because Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford or will not be strong enough to attack a European country anyway
&#8230; All of which carries with it the paradox that the more a nation’s wealth is militarily protected the less secure does it become.”
but it definitely cannot afford another large war against an additional adversary.”
which would become the theater of war in case of a Russian attack
The Great Illusion deserves to be read widely
lived in an age not unlike ours today—an age of globalization and rapid technological innovation
Feverish economic activity and booming economies led Angell to conclude that the economic price of war had become too high for European countries
would be foolish enough to sacrifice their wealth for war
led him to believe that war between large European powers had become economically irrational because it yielded nothing
or ‘weight in the councils of Europe,’ or the ‘prestige of a great Power,’ are just as well off as Germans
and a great deal better off than Austrians or Russians.”
the rationale for a large nation to conquer a small one—namely
to acquire greater wealth—had practically vanished
it would be likely to soon stop anyway because all participants would realize how foolish it was
the ultimate guarantor of lasting peace on the continent
The Great Illusion hit bookstores at a time when European empires (some of them superpowers
dominating the world) were rapidly arming themselves
war was in the air while at the same time seeming rationally impossible
Angell’s book struck a chord with readers uncomfortable with this paradox
Translated into several languages and reprinted many times
A few years later, in 1914, World War I broke out. It was a new kind of war, a war of the trenches that lasted long and killed millions of people while decimating European economies. And while wars in the past had mostly involved soldiers, sparing the civilian population, this war <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/book/11127/">harmed civilians</a> more than ever before
What makes the book interesting is that today
some skeptics of European rearmament use the same argument that Angell made more than a hundred years ago
Acknowledging the fact that European defense budgets have been slashed for decades since the end of the Cold War—with the so-called peace dividend allowing governments to redirect the money to social welfare
for example—today’s skeptics argue that there is no need to defend Europe against Russian aggression because there will be no aggression
It can hardly sustain the war effort against Ukraine
Just before Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine began in February 2022, the same line of argument prevailed. U.S. intelligence showed that Russia had moved almost 190,000 troops to its border with Ukraine. Still, very few believed an attack was imminent, with some <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/9/no-russia-will-not-invade-ukraine">arguing</a> that it would “not fit into Moscow’s cost-benefit calculus.” Today
President Donald Trump’s Middle East and Russia envoy
Putin often <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38093468">repeats</a> that he will defend ethnic Russians no matter where they live
many think that the chances of Putin using this pretext to invade a European country are slim
Russia has trouble sustaining its economy—Russia’s GDP is about the same as Spain’s
Would that not be Europe’s best deterrence
Fresh money for defense has to come from somewhere. Many Europeans fear that social benefits will be slashed. In order to prevent this, French columnist Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur recently <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2025/03/26/le-defi-russe-pour-l-europe-est-aujourd-hui-bien-moins-militaire-qu-ideologique_6586348_3232.html">wrote</a> in Le Monde
Europe’s response to Russia’s threat should not be rearmament “but the promotion of its social-democratic market model
defense of the multi-polar world and unconditional support for international law as an alternative solution to conflicts.”
economic arguments against his more fatalistic contemporaries
terrified of the “inevitable” war against Germany
If there is one lesson to be learned from Putin’s wars in Chechnya
it is that economic rationale does not weigh heavily on his choice to use force
The decision to go to war to restore an old empire is irrational by definition
If there is any consistency in Putin’s reasoning
it is that economic arguments hardly come into the equation
many Europeans seem to have forgotten not just the experience of war itself
but also the insight in the reasons why nations go to war
Each time in the past 25 years that Putin threatened to invade a country
many reacted by saying that he will probably not do it
they fell off their chairs in almost all European chancelleries because they didn’t expect it
si vis pacem para bellum—if you want peace
Angell campaigned hard to keep Britain out of the war
he wanted it to join the war as soon as possible
For good reasons: It is packed with wise lessons for today’s world
Caroline de Gruyter is a columnist at Foreign Policy and a Europe correspondent and columnist for the Dutch newspaper NRC. She currently lives in Brussels. X:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.twitter.com/CarolineGruyter" target="_blank">@CarolineGruyter</a>
Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:00 pm ET on May 2
ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Russian gains along the frontline have slowed over the last four months
but Russia continues to tolerate personnel losses comparable to the casualty rate Russian forces sustained during a period of intensified advances between September and December 2024
ISW assesses that Russian forces gained a total of 1,627 square kilometers in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast in January
and daily Russian casualty reports from the Ukrainian General Staff indicate that Russian forces suffered 160,600 casualties during the last four months for an average of 99 casualties for every square kilometer taken over the last four months
ISW assesses that Russian forces seized an estimated 496 square kilometers in January 2025; an estimated 313 square kilometers in February 2025; an estimated 601 square kilometers in March 2025; and an estimated 217 square kilometers in April 2025
Ukrainian General Staff reports indicate that Russian forces lost an estimated 48,060 casualties in January 2025
and 36,570 casualties in April 2025.[1] Russian advances significantly increased in March 2025 due to the elimination of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast
coinciding with the temporary cessation of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine
although Russian advances on average decreased between January
Russian gains have also slowed as Russian forces come up against more well-defended Ukrainian positions in and around larger towns such as Kupyansk
Russian forces are currently sustaining a higher casualty rate per square kilometer gained than in Fall 2024
Russian forces gained an estimated 2,949 square kilometers at the cost of 174,935 casualties between September and December 2024 — an average of 59 casualties per square kilometer taken.[2] Russian casualty rates consistently increased throughout September
and December 2024 and peaked at an estimated 49,135 total monthly casualties in December 2024.[3] Monthly Russian rates of advance plateaued at 839 square kilometers in November 2024
and began to slow in December 2024 to an assessed 593 square kilometers and have continued to slow in 2025 (with the exception of the elimination of the Kursk salient)
Russian gains have been 45 percent slower between January and April 2025 than in the period between September and December 2024
although Russian casualty rates have only decreased by 10 percent in that interval
The Russian military command thus appears to be tolerating similar personnel loss rates despite a significant decrease in the rate of territorial gains
Russia has thus far sustained these casualties and the current tempo of offensive operations by rapidly deploying low quality troops to frontline units
although the reliance on such troops is also hindering Russia's ability to conduct complex operations and make rapid advances in Ukraine
ISW has not observed a notable decrease in the tempo of Russian offensive operations along the frontline in recent months
suggesting that Russia is generating enough forces to sustain these casualties without having to deprioritize any frontline area
ISW has repeatedly observed reports that new Russian recruits only receive a month of training before deploying to Ukraine
and this limited training is likely constraining recruits' combat capabilities and the Russian military's overall capacity to successfully conduct complex operations.[4] The Russian military command is currently prioritizing funneling poorly trained recruits into highly attritional infantry assaults to offset personnel losses in Ukraine while sustaining the current tempo of operations
possibly at the expense of Russia's long-term warfighting capabilities.[5] The Russian military does not have a reserve pool of well-trained troops who are not currently engaged in combat in Ukraine and can rapidly deploy along the frontline
and the Russian military command's decision to funnel poorly trained troops to the frontline in Ukraine is undermining Russia's ability to create a pool of such forces.[6]
Russian President Vladimir Putin's commitment to maintaining the tempo of offensive operations despite diminishing returns underscores Putin's ongoing efforts to leverage further battlefield gains to generate pressure on Ukraine in ceasefire and peace negotiations or otherwise to force Ukraine's collapse
ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to prolong negotiations to extract additional concessions from the United States and Ukraine and make additional battlefield gains.[7] Russian forces intensified offensive operations throughout the frontline in February and March 2025
including a limited offensive operation into northern Sumy Oblast
as part of an ongoing Russian effort to slowly degrade frontline Ukrainian positions and make opportunistic tactical advances
Putin may intend to leverage any gains over the last four months and in the near future to extract further Ukrainian and Western concessions during future peace negotiations
It remains unclear if Russia will maintain sufficient force generation rates to sustain offensive operations in Ukraine indefinitely
Western intelligence reportedly suggests that Putin may begin prioritizing short-term goals such as consolidating Russia's gains in Ukraine and Russia's immediate economic viability over seizing more territory
but Putin's demonstrated commitment to maintaining the tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine despite continuing high casualty rates is a counter-indicator to this reported assessment
CNN reported on May 1 that new intelligence reviewed by US and Western officials suggests that Putin may be pivoting his immediate focus to shorter-term objectives of cementing Russian control over occupied Ukrainian territory and boosting Russia's economy.[10] CNN reported that Putin may be concerned by the Trump administration's threats to apply more sanctions on the struggling Russian economy
An unnamed official told CNN that Putin's willingness to settle for more limited objectives in Ukraine depends on whether Putin can portray Russia's gains in Ukraine as an acceptable victory domestically
The source insinuated that Putin likely remains committed to revisiting his longer-term goals of subjugating all of Ukraine and undermining NATO after taking a "significant pause," however
ISW has observed a variety of indicators suggesting that Putin is not reconsidering his short-term objectives in Ukraine
Russian forces have increased the intensity of offensive operations throughout the theater
particularly redoubling efforts to advance deeper in the Lyman
and Novopavlivka directions and launching a limited offensive operation in Sumy Oblast.[11] Russian forces are rapidly integrating tactical innovations to optimize timely gains in response to Ukrainian drone operators
including integrating motorcycles into offensive operations in Ukraine.[12] The Kremlin is also leveraging legal
and socioeconomic measures to increase Russia's force generation capabilities and boost Russia's drone production capabilities to support the war in Ukraine.[13]
A future slowing of Russian offensive operations and/or transition to defensive operations in all or part of the theater would be indicators that Putin is shifting his short-term goals from seizing more territory to consolidating previously held territory
Putin could choose to pivot toward shorter-term objectives on account of mounting economic and manpower constraints that are increasingly hindering Russia's ability to perpetuate its war in Ukraine.[14] Russian forces could slow the tempo of offensive operations and work to implement policies and tactics to mitigate casualties if Putin issues an order to prioritize consolidating Russia's hold over occupied Ukraine instead of making further gains
Russian forces would likely shift to defensive operations with the aim of fortifying and consolidating current positions on the frontline
largely in an effort to safeguard battlefield gains and preserve increasingly limited manpower and materiel reserves
Russian forces could begin constructing fortifications near frontline positions in response to such an order
ISW would observe such indicators and will continue to monitor Russian and Ukrainian reporting for these indicators
ISW continues to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his long-term military objectives of seizing all of Ukraine and undermining NATO
Senior US officials reportedly remain skeptical that Putin has eased his intransigence regarding a peace agreement and told CNN that Russia may resume the war and try to seize more Ukrainian territory even after agreeing to a US peace proposal.[15] CNN reported that unspecified officials maintain the belief that Russia will retain its aims of seizing the maximal amount of Ukrainian territory even if Putin signs a peace agreement
despite the significant economic cost of this wartime economy to Russia’s population.[18] These factors indicate that Putin is not abandoning his territorial ambitions in Ukraine but is in fact preparing for a long war of attrition against Ukraine and likely the collective West
Russian officials are also continuing to condition Russian society to support a long-term war effort in Ukraine and against NATO
have consistently leveraged false claims about the war in Ukraine to make maximalist territorial demands
including that Ukraine give up "Novorossiya" — an invented region of Ukraine that Kremlin officials have claimed includes all of southern and eastern Ukraine and is an "integral" part of Russia that Ukraine must concede for Russia to end the war.[19] Putin invoked the term "Novorossiya" as recently as April 21
indicating that the Kremlin has not abandoned this territorial objective.[20] Russian state media previously cautioned Russian domestic audiences in March 2025 against expecting "big agreements" from recent peace negotiations between Putin and US President Donald Trump.[21] A Verstka poll of 100 Russian military personnel published on April 29 indicates that only 18% of career Russian military personnel and officers
most of whom have been fighting in Ukraine for over two years
would support a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine prior to achieving Putin's stated goals (likely referring to the demilitarization and "denazification" of Ukraine).[22] Only about a fifth of surveyed Russian military personnel and civilians indicated that they believe the war will end in the coming months
Verstka’s polling indicates that the Kremlin is not preparing the Russian information space for a peace agreement in the near future and that Russian forces and society do not anticipate an imminent end to the war
This pattern of Kremlin informational activity and the resonance it has achieved in Russian society will make it much harder for Putin to present any long-term ceasefire
that falls far short of his stated aims as any kind of victory to his domestic audience
Statements by US officials suggest that the Trump administration is considering stepping back from intensified mediation efforts to end the war in Ukraine
as the United States is changing its "style" and "methodology" and will no longer "fly around the world at the drop of a hat" to mediate negotiations."[25] Bruce reiterated that the United States is "still committed" to a lasting peace in Ukraine
The US Department of State submitted a proposed license for defense exports to Ukraine to the US Congress on April 29.[26] The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is considering the proposal
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russo-Ukrainian%20War%20May%202%2C%202025.png"></a>
Limited fighting continued in Kursk Oblast on May 2
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in Gornal and the Gornal Monastery contrary to the Russian MoD's April 26 claim that Russian forces seized the settlement.[27]
Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in Gornal (southwest of Sudzha).[28]
Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported that unattributed drones struck the Russian Zvezda military space intelligence facility in Stavropol Krai on May 2.[29] Kovalenko noted that facility is one of the Russian General Staff Main Directorate's [GRU] main electronic intelligence system stations and specializes in detecting foreign intelligence communication systems and commercial electronic signatures in orbit
Kovalenko stated that Russia used the facility as a technical base to monitor Ukraine and conduct cyber intelligence operations
Stavropol Krai Governor Vladimir Vladimirov claimed that Ukrainian drone fragments fell in Moskovskoe village in Izobilnensky Raion but caused no damage or casualties.[30]
Fighting continued in northwesternmost Belgorod Oblast on May 2
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Belgorod%20Direction%20May%2002%2C%202025.png"></a>
A Russian milblogger claimed that fighting continued near Popovka and Demidovka (both northwest of Belgorod City) and that Russian forces are conducting drone operations in the area.[31]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on May 2
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Sumy%20Direction%20May%2002%2C%202025.png"></a>
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized Bilovody (northeast of Sumy City)
while another milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized the majority of the settlement.[32] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Loknya (southeast of Bilovody) toward Yablunivka (south of Bilovody).[33]
Russian forces attacked north of Sumy City near Volodymyrivka and Vodolahy and northeast of Sumy City near Zhuravka and Loknya on May 2.[34] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked west of Loknya.[35]
The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces are creating a "security strip" along the border of Sumy Oblast
and a Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are shifting offensive operations towards Sumy Oblast.[36]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly operating in Bilovody.[37] Elements of the Chechen "Akhmat-Russia" Regiment are reportedly operating near Seredina-Budy (on the international border northwest of Sumy City).[38] Drone operators of the "Rubikon" Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly striking Ukrainian targets in Sumy Oblast.[39]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction on May 2 but did not advance
Russian forces attacked north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk on May 1 and 2.[40]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on May 2 but did not make confirmed advances
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Luhansk%20Oblast%20May%202%2C%202025.png"></a>
Russian forces attacked southeast of Kupyansk near Novoosynove
and Hlushkivka on May 1 and 2.[41] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked north of Kupyansk near Zapadne and advanced to the northern part of the settlement on May 2.[42]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on May 2 but did not advance
Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhlyakivka; east of Borova near Nadiya
and Kopanky; and southeast of Borova near Hrekivka on May 1 and 2.[45]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on May 2 but did not make confirmed advances.<a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Svatove-Kreminna%20Direction%20May%202%2C%202025.png"></a>
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces marginally advanced near Zelena Dolyna
and within central Lypove (all north of Lyman).[46]
Russian forces attacked north of Lyman near Ridkodub
and Lypove; northeast of Lyman near Novomykhailivka
and Yampolivka; east of Lyman toward Torske; and southeast of Lyman in the Serebryanske forest area on May 1 and 2.[47]
A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported on May 1 that Russian forces near the Serebryanske forest area unsuccessfully attempted to use anti thermal-imaging rain ponchos to evade Ukrainian drone operators.[48]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA
reportedly participated in the recent seizure of Nove.[49]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on May 2 but did not advance
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk%20Oblast%20May%202%2C%202025.png"></a>
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on May 2 that Russian forces advanced south of Hryhorivka (northeast of Siversk).[50]
Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka and toward Hryhorivka and east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske on May 1 and 2.[51]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA]
formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps
Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Bilohorivka.[52]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on May 2 but did not make confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar itself; north of Chasiv Yar near Novomarkove; and south of Chasiv Yar towards Bila Hora and near Stupochky on May 1 and 2.[53] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Stupochky.[54]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian Sever-V Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps)
the 2nd Airborne (VDV) Battalion of the 98th VDV Division
and the "Burevestnik" detachment (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating near Chasiv Yar.[55] Elements of the Russian 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (6th Motorized Rifle Division
3rd Army Corps [AC]) are reportedly operating near Stupochky.[56]
Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction amid an intensified effort to advance along and up to the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway and eliminate the Ukrainian salient southwest of Toretsk
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Toretsk%20Direction%20May%202%2C%202025.png"></a>
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 1 indicates that Russian forces advanced into Novoolenivka (southwest of Toretsk).[57] Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division
Southern Military District [SMD]) with motorcycle support participated in the advance into Novoolenivka and seized half of the settlement.[58]
and the Russian military command appears to be tasking the 20th and 150th motorized rifle divisions (both of the 8th CAA) with eliminating the pocket.[61] Russian forces' advance into Novoolenivka will help Russian forces advance further along the T-0504 highway
and Russian forces may intend to force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the pocket under threat of envelopment if Russian forces can make further advances from Novoolenivka and Sukha Balka (southwest of Toretsk)
Russian forces continued assaults near Toretsk itself; northeast of Toresk near Druzhba; north of Toretsk toward Dyliivka; west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka; and southwest of Toretsk near Sukha Balka
and Nova Poltavka on May 1 and 2.[62] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked northwest of Vozdvyzhenka (southwest of Toretsk).[63]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd CAA]) are reportedly operating near Druzhba.[64]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on May 2 but did not make confirmed advances
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Pokrovsk%20Direction%20May%202%2C%202025.png"></a>
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed on May 1 and 2 that Russian forces advanced into the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk
two kilometers west of Novoukrainka (south of Pokrovsk)
into the eastern outskirts of Lysivka (southeast of Pokrovsk)
and southeast of Novooleksandrivka (southwest of Pokrovsk).[65] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a reconnaissance-in-force mission into southern Pokrovsk but did not suggest that Russian forces maintain enduring positions in the southern outskirts of the settlement.[66] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Yelyzavetivka (east of Pokrovsk) and Zvirove (west of Pokrovsk).[67]
Russian forces attacked toward Pokrovsk itself; northeast of Pokrovsk near Novotoretske; east of Pokrovsk near Malynivka and Myrolyubivka; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka
and Sukhyi Yar; south of Pokrovsk near Shevchenko
and Novoukrainka; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne
Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 1 that the Pokrovsk direction remains the most active section of the frontline.[69] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian infantry operating in this direction fear they will face retribution from frontline Russian commanders if they refuse to fight or attempt to retreat.[70]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian "Vega" Spetsnaz Detachment (24th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade
Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate) and the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division
Southern Military District [SMD]) are striking Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk and attacking Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).[71]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on May 2 but did not make confirmed advances
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Novopavlivka%20Direction%20May%2002%2C%202025.png"></a>
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed on May 1 and 2 that Russian forces advanced northwest of Nadiivka (east of Novopavlivka).[72]
Russian forces attacked northeast of Novopavlivka near Novoserhiivka and Novooleksandrivka; east of Novopavlivka near Nadiivka
and Preobrazhenka; and southeast near Bohdanivka on May 1 and 2.[73] A Russian milblogger claimed on May 2 that elements of the Russian 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA
CMD) recently retreated from Kotlyarivka (east of Novopavlivka) after frontline Russian commanders deployed poorly trained troops to combat operations in the area.[74]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 27th Motorized Rifle Division (2nd CAA
CMD) are reportedly operating in Novooleksandrivka.[75] Elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division (41st CAA
CMD) are reportedly clearing Nadiivka (east of Novopavlivka).[76] Elements of the 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA
CMD) are reportedly attacking eastern Kolyarivka (east of Pokrovsk).[77]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kurakhove direction on May 2 but did not make confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked west of Kurakhove toward Oleksiivka and near Andriivka
and Bahatyr on May 1 and 2.[78] A Russian milblogger claimed on May 2 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Bahatyr.[79]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 200th Artillery Brigade (29th CAA
Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Bahatyr.[80]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on May 2 but did not advance
Russian forces attacked northeast of Velyka Novosilka near Odradne
and northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Pryvilne.[81] A Russian milblogger claimed on May 2 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Vesele (north of Velyka Novosilka).[82]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 305th Artillery Brigade (5th CAA
EMD) are reportedly operating near Vilne Pole (northwest of Velyka Novosilka).[83]
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations east of Hulyaipole near Chervone on May 2.[84]
Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast
  Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on April 27 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced northeast of Mali Shcherbaky (west of Orikhiv).[85 Russian forces conducted ground attacks southeast of Orikhiv near Mala Tokmachka; southwest of Orikhiv near Stepove and Lobkove; and west of Orikhiv near Shcherbaky and Kamyanske on May 1 and 2.[86]
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Zaporizhia%20Direction%20May%2002%2C%202025.png"></a>
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the Kherson direction on May 1 and 2 but did not advance.[87]
 <a href="https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Kherson%20Direction%20May%2002%2C%202025.png"></a>
Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn reported on May 2 that Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations in the southern section of the Dnipro River Delta near Kizomys on the west (right) of the Dnipro River (southwest of Kherson City).[88] Voloshyn reported that Russian forces are attempting to create a bridgehead and cross the Dnipro River from the south
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of overnight naval and aerial drone strikes targeting Russian military infrastructure objects in occupied Crimea on May 1 to 2
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched 30 naval drones and at least 100 aerial drones
and that Russian forces destroyed 10 Ukrainian naval drones and 100 aerial drones near occupied Sevastopol.[89] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian drones struck Russian airfields in occupied Kacha
seven kilometers from the Russian military airfield in Kacha.[90] Russian forces typically station air defenses at the Belbek
and Saky airfields and leverage the airfields to launch Shahed drones against Ukraine.[91]
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on May 2 that Ukrainian forces recently struck a Russian S-300 air defense system
and a ST-68 radar station in occupied Crimea.[92]
Russian forces launched a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 1 to 2
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 150 strike and decoy drones from Bryansk City; Primorsko-Akhtarsk
Crimea.[93] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 64 Shahed and other drones over eastern
and central Ukraine and that 62 decoy drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference
Ukrainian officials reported that drone strikes damaged civilian and commercial infrastructure in Kharkiv
[1] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid06W44ezsFpBSRJsouTmp812SQ22eLf3V1pzyMwF6YEE7koRcQq32JGzJ2HnzyWuvyl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20444 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid031frKwcfzQKsFhG7kFj3hoVWG8FPvGbFatwKBLj8pEpH8CHiLWWGeHZCzPwjXpbzml ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/22561 [Total losses generated from the Ukrainian General Staff's daily 0800 SITREP between January 1 and April 30
[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-31-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-5-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-9-2024
[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-31-2024
[5] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-5-2025
[6] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-kursk-incursion-six-month-assessment
[8] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-weakness-offers-leverage
[9] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-weakness-offers-leverage
[10] https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/politics/intelligence-putin-war-goals-shifted-ukraine
[11] https://isw.pub/UkrWar041425 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041125 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar040825 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041425
[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042625 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042725
[13] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-force-generation-and-technological-adaptations-update-april-15-2025
[14] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-weakness-offers-leverage
[15] https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/politics/intelligence-putin-war-goals-shifted-ukraine
[16] https://isw.pub/UkrWar041425; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041125; https://isw.pub/UkrWar040825
[18] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-weakness-offers-leverage;
[19] https://isw.pub/UkrWar041525; https://isw.pub/UkrWar043025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042225; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042125
[21] https://tass dot ru/interviews/23001625; https://isw.pub/UkrWar013025
[22] https://verstka dot media/chto-dumayut-rossiiskie-voennye-o-vozmozhnom-peremirii ; https://t.me/svobodnieslova/6761
[24] https://www.foxnews.com/video/6372195430112
[25] https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-may-1-2025/
[26] https://www.congress.gov/senate-communication/119th-congress/executive-communication/859?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22Ukraine%22%7D&amp;s=4&amp;r=1 ; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/01/trump-administration-readies-first-sale-of-military-equipment-to-ukraine
[27] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/27947 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35133 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35194 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26-2025
[31] https://rutube dot ru/video/cdffbed33da010ec8b3b7441618ce473/; https://t.me/rybar/70069
[32] https://t.me/yurasumy/22698 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/26282
[33] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63929 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/70321
[34] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63929 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/22698 ; https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/5688
[36] https://t.me/rybar/70072 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/52033
[40] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789
[41] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl
[43] https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/9229; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/02/pozbavyly-okupantiv-10-motoczykliv-nashi-bijczi-znyshhyly-mobilni-shturmovi-grupy-rf-na-kupyanskomu-napryamku/; https://dpsu.gov dot ua/uk/news/47009-video-pomsta-znishuye-mobilni-shturmovi-grupi-voroga-na-kup-yanskomu-napryamku
[44] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/02/pryvaryly-saraj-na-tank-poblyzu-kupyanska-rosiyany-prodovzhuyut-vygaduvaty-bronovanyh-monstriv/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGVneFXTZ7U
[45] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/27898;
[47] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/27898; https://t.me/OMIBr_60/1015; https://militarnyi dot com/en/news/deceptive-defense-russian-infantry-stormed-positions-wearing-anti-thermal-ponchos/
[48] https://t.me/OMIBr_60/1015; https://militarnyi dot com/en/news/deceptive-defense-russian-infantry-stormed-positions-wearing-anti-thermal-ponchos/
[51] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl
[53] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/26282
[55] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/27910 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163254 ; https://t.me/rybar/70062
[57] https://x.com/UAControlMap/status/1918014207036960908; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9041; https://t.me/dva_majors/70304
[58] https://t.me/dva_majors/70304 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35140 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/90948 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/22699  ;
[59] https://t.me/dva_majors/70303  ; https://t.me/dva_majors/70321 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/22704  ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63935
[60] https://t.me/yurasumy/22704 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63935
[62] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl
[65] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163192; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/90955; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163192; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35134; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35131; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35154; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35198
[67] https://t.me/yurasumy/22700; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35158
[68] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63924; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/27895; https://t.me/wargonzo/26282; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63935
[69] https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/mayemo-pershij-rezultat-vatikanskoyi-zustrichi-yakij-robit-y-97493
[70] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/02/odyn-ne-hotiv-jty-jomu-postrilyaly-po-nogah-pid-pokrovskom-rosiyany-zhenut-vpered-navit-svoyih-poranenyh/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGVneFXTZ7U
[71] https://t.me/sashakots/53449; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/90941 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/90949; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/90986
[73] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl;
[78] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl ; https://t.me/rybar/70069; https://t.me/dva_majors/70321;
[80] https://t.me/voin_dv/14701; https://t.me/voin_dv/14710
[81] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/63928; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789
[85] https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/27812; https://t.me/IIsb_128ogshb/10
[86] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/23789 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0Kbtt9CquVipVnN1XztUr74jZH2oszYjnfjA4WPoELMYr3Ajk9YNt5xMqrs733Ngnl ; https://t.me/dva_majors/70321
[87]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0WFG61Me5FPbKespJafQpjHDYjP1Tb9SkDCuhu384hHcRy2LuXWmXY8CqZgF5SBGzl
[88] https://www.pravda.com dot ua/eng/news/2025/05/1/7510060/
[89] https://t.me/andriyshTime/36717 ; https://t.me/razvozhaev/11523; https://t.me/razvozhaev/11526 ; https://t.me/rybar/70080 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/23327 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/23084 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/23103 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/52052 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/313074 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/313074 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/52035 ;
[90] https://t.me/rucriminalinfo/836 ; https://t.me/rucriminalinfo/839 ; https://t.me/Crimeanwind/78898 ; https://www dot idelreal.org/a/anneksirovannyy-krym-podvergsya-massirovannoy-atake-dronov/33402916.html ; https://t.me/astrapress/80242 ; https://t.me/andriyshTime/36729 ; https://t.me/astrapress/80242 ; https://t.me/astrapress/80245
[91] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2025 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-31-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-21-2025
[92] https://t.me/russianocontext/6658 ; https://militarnyi dot com/en/news/prymary-strike-drones-flew-into-crimea-and-destroyed-air-defense-systems/ ; https://t.me/ButusovPlus/19506
While Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine remains in the spotlight, President <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/topic/vladimir-putin" data-sys="1" class="multivariate">Vladimir Putin</a> is quietly laying the groundwork for a potential conflict with NATO
Russia is expanding its troop presence along stretches of its border with the West
ramping up its military spending at a record pace
and intensifying covert operations against the West
NATO must "expect the unexpected" and prepare for a Russian attack
intelligence and military officials have warned in recent weeks that NATO member states must be ready for a potential conflict with Russia
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment by email
Russia is expanding its military presence along its borders with Finland and Norway in preparation for a potential face off with the military alliance, the Wall Street Journal <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-military-nato-europe-finland-ff53b912" class="multivariate">reported</a> Monday
The Kremlin is planning to establish a new army headquarters in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk
about 100 miles east of the Finnish border
which will oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years
Many of these troops will be deployed to the area after the Ukraine war ends
Russia is ramping up military recruitment and accelerating weapons production
Russian military experts told the newspaper that the buildup along the Finnish border is likely part of President Vladimir Putin's broader preparations for a possible conflict with NATO
they will be looking over the border at a country they consider an adversary," said Ruslan Pukhov
director of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies
"The logic of the last decade shows we're expecting some conflict with NATO."
There are indications that Russia is starting to hold back recently produced equipment from deployment to Ukraine
and is instead reallocating some personnel to other regions
senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank
"However, this activity is far from a build-up," Arnold said. "Many of the units usually stationed in the north have become combat ineffective while fighting in Ukraine, so this Russian activity is rebalancing and recapitalising lost forces. It does therefore indicate that Russia is <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/map-russia-invades-europe-1999747" target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="multivariate">already starting to look</a> 'beyond Ukraine'."
Germany's intelligence community has sounded the alarm that Russia's ambitions go beyond Ukraine. A report by Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.me/BILD_Russian/22238" class="multivariate">in March warned </a>that Putin is preparing for a conflict with NATO
Russia could be fully ready for a "large-scale conventional war" by 2030
"Russia sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is prepared to implement its imperialistic goals through military force
assessed that while Moscow may not yet be ready to launch a full-scale attack on the alliance
it may attempt to "test NATO" with a limited military operation against one or more member states to gauge how seriously the bloc will uphold its collective defense obligations
An attack by Russia on any NATO member would trigger Article 5 of the alliance's charter
which states that a strike on one member state would be met with a collective response
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) also <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/nato-ally-warns-russia-launching-large-scale-war-europe-2029855" class="multivariate">warned in February</a> that Russia could be ready to wage a "large-scale war" in Europe within the next five years
While "there is currently no threat of a regular military attack on the Kingdom," it is likely that the "military threat from Russia will increase over the coming years," it said
Russia's military spending is increasing at a record pace
with expenditures expected to reach around 120 billion euros in 2025&mdash;more than 6 percent of the country's GDP
That's compared to 3.6 percent prior to the war
The Russian army is also set to expand to 1.5 million troops
while the volume of weapons and equipment stationed along the NATO border is expected to grow by 30&ndash;50 percent
According to a <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.iiss.org/events/2025/01/the-military-balance-2025-launch/" class="multivariate">Military Balance</a> report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies released February, Russia's military expenditure has <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-defense-spending-overtakes-europe-study-finds/" class="multivariate">surpassed Europe</a>
The West has sounded the alarm over increased <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/topic/russian-military" class="multivariate">Russian military</a> activity near key undersea communication cables. There are growing fears among <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/topic/nato" class="multivariate">NATO</a> members that Putin could target underwater cables and critical infrastructure that are vital to global communication systems
In <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/map-russian-ship-taiwan-pacific-undersea-cables-2014606" class="multivariate">one example,</a> a Russian cargo vessel loitered above undersea communication cables in the Pacific for weeks
raising concerns over potential Russian sabotage
Severing key undersea lines could cripple communications and disrupt global economies &mdash; a move that would serve Russian interests in any future war with NATO
This month, Russia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrei Kelin, also refused to deny media reports that Russia is tracking the nation's <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/russia-nato-uk-submarines-sensors-2059448" class="multivariate">nuclear submarines</a> in the seas around Britain
Russia is waging an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe, the Center for Strategic and International Studies <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west" class="multivariate">said</a> in a report published in March
The report noted that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024
after already quadrupling between 2022 and 2023
"The data indicate that Russia poses a serious threat to the United States and Europe and that the Russian government
As NATO member states express growing concerns about Europe's collective security, U.S. President <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/topic/donald-trump" data-sys="1" class="multivariate">Donald Trump</a> has called on European nations to substantially increase their defense spending
The European Commission proposed in March to free up about 800 billion euros ($867 billion) in funding to put toward additional defense spending
NATO member state Lithuania has fortified a bridge near its border with Russia with anti-tank concrete pyramids
known as "dragon's teeth." The structures were first used during World War II and impede the advances of tanks and mechanized infantry
It followed a similar announcement from neighbor Latvia
The Baltic States "are determined to ensure what happened to Ukraine will not happen to them," Roger Hilton
defense research fellow at the Slovakia-based think tank GLOBSEC
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/03/26/gensek-nato-poobeschal-putinu-sokrushitelnii-otvet-vsluchae-napadeniya-a159280" class="multivariate">warned</a> Putin in March of a "devastating" response should Moscow attack any of the alliance's members
"If anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland or any other ally
they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance
This must be clear to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and anyone else who wants to attack us," Rutte said