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Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei
East Asian and Southeast Asian security issues
and cross-strait ties between China and Taiwan
You can get in touch with Micah by emailing m.mccartney@newsweek.com
either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter
or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources
Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content
Some Chinese exporters are routing goods through third countries to skirt the steep tariffs the United States has imposed on the world's second-largest economy
Chinese social media platforms are increasingly being courted by freight brokers offering the service since the Trump administration hiked duties on Chinese imports to as high as 245 percent
China exports roughly five times as much to the U.S
has vowed to "fight till the end" and imposed a reciprocal 125 percent tariff on most U.S
Newsweek reached out to the Chinese Foreign Ministry and U.S
Customs and Border Protection via email for comment
Chinese social media platforms have seen a spike in logistics firms offering exporters "place-of-origin washing" services
Malaysia has become a common waypoint for these goods
The Southeast Asian country was slapped with a relatively low 24 percent tariff and is currently—like most countries other than China—subject to a baseline 10 percent tariff during the 90-day pause Trump ordered to allow trade partners time to negotiate over alleged trade imbalances and "unfair" duties on U.S
Transit through Malaysia to 'transform' into Southeast Asian goods!" the Financial Times quoted one such ad as saying
posted by an account named "Ruby—Third Country Transshipment."
The practice has raised concerns about Malaysia's reputation
with trade groups calling on authorities to investigate instances of fraudulent declarations of origin
Malaysia Deputy Minister of Plantation and Commodities Chan Foong Hin also urged businesses not to take part in the practice
He said the ministry had recently moved to strengthen oversight of Malaysia's rubber glove industry
any exporter of gloves certified by the Rubber Bureau will only be allowed to export locally manufactured rubber gloves," reported Malay Mail
South Korea's customs agency said it discovered 29.5 billion won ($20.81 million) in country-of-origin violations in the first quarter of 2025 alone
97 percent of which were bound for the U.S
That's nearly as much as the 34.8 billion won of such violations discovered in 2024
during which U.S.-bound goods comprised 62 percent
South Korea's customs agency has since created a special task force to tackle illegally falsified exports
Airfreight Forwarders Association of Malaysia
quoted by local media: "[Origin washing] may also jeopardize Malaysia's standing as a trusted and responsible trade partner in the global supply chain."
on X (formerly Twitter): While the tariffs [on Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries] may not make traditional economic sense
they might make strategic sense—as a deterrent against serving as transshipment hubs for China
But could it be an effective way to tackle the transshipment issue
Many Chinese firms will likely struggle to redirect goods originally made for U.S
The government has reportedly been encouraging merchants to turn to local consumers instead
efforts to offload excess inventory will boost supply and lower prices
which could worsen China's ongoing deflationary cycle and further dampen hiring
Analysts have warned of price increases and shortages in the U.S
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground
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Some 16m workers are involved in the production of goods bound for America
projects a possible 5.7m job losses in the near term and 15.8m in the long run as the shock ripples through the economy
The reasons are more about self-image than money
But plenty of firms believe that the levies will not last
An opportunity to join the staff of The Economist
New ideas for new people in an old country
But replacing more complex imports is proving tricky
Dmitri Alperovitch, World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century (PublicAffairs
Visit the home of any D.C. foreign policy watcher and you will be sure to find bookshelves groaning under the weight of new China tomes. Every issue of Foreign Affairs, the in-house journal of Washington’s foreign policy establishment, is packed with articles about China. We are routinely told that
in a city more deeply divided by ideology and party affiliation than at any time since the Civil War
China is the one issue that brings the warring tribes together
Yet from the outside (the writer is based in Australia)
and the apparent political unity on the China question
looks like it is built on weak foundations
This is not a reference to policy differences among the tribes
it is a comment on the gulf separating Washington from the rest of the United States
the lack of it — suggests Americans are far less preoccupied with China than those who govern them
America’s China debate is largely confined to its policy elites, among them Dmitri Alperovitch, who has written World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century. Alperovitch, a Russian émigré, is co-founder of the tech security firm CrowdStrike and now a Washington policy entrepreneur who in 2020 launched the Silverado Policy Accelerator
“The only foreign policy goal in the twenty- first century that really should matter,” he writes
is avoiding “hot conflict with China while ensuring our country remains dominant on the global stage.” Except
as in much of the China commentary emerging from Washington
the tension between them is never resolved
because confronting this tension would require choices that Washington’s elites prefer not to make
since they know they have yet to recruit the American people to their cause
Politics is another big point of difference between the two cold wars: U.S. President Harry Truman attempted to recruit his people to the cause of anti-communism from the start, in a nationally broadcast speech to Congress in 1947
in which he declared that containing Soviet-led communism would henceforth be the nation’s defining mission
President Joe Biden made an early attempt to frame America’s China relationship as part of a larger ideological contest between democracies and autocracies
Neither Biden nor any of his contemporaries have spoken to Americans about China as Truman did about Soviet containment
even though the economic challenge this time is already much larger
this is because China poses no ideological threat
since it has no evident ambition to spread Marxism globally
Only by pushing outward can China secure its frontiers
and break the bonds a punishing environment imposes.”
While World on the Brink is commendably focused on avoiding a calamitous war between the United States and China
it gives equal weight to maintaining American dominance over China and doesn’t allow that those objectives might be incompatible
it’s not enough for the United States to maintain peace with China — it also has to win
That’s a familiar framing for those of us who lived through the Global War on Terror. It even has echoes of a quote attributed to Ronald Reagan: “Here’s my strategy on the Cold War: we win
they lose.” It doesn’t escape Alperovitch that China is not al-Qaeda
or even that the Cold War with the Soviet Union is the wrong comparison
the massive scale of the China challenge doesn’t deter Alperovitch
and that can only be secured through dominance
That doesn’t mean seeking regime change in Beijing, but it does mean that China needs to be convinced to work “within the existing global order, respecting territorial sovereignty, engaging fairly in global trade, and putting an end to the practice of economic and military coercion of other nations.” Needless to say, the United States routinely exempts itself from such standards
and not one afforded to subordinates in the system
One suspects Alperovitch would prefer China as a supersized post-World War II Japan or West Germany: an economic giant and a strategic minnow
No nation of China’s size will be content to remain indefinitely subordinate to another great power in its own region
what America has: a regional sphere of influence
The question Americans must ask is whether it is vitally important for their country to deny China this ambition. Must China remain subordinate in a system led by an unrivaled United States? Or can Americans live in a world that sees China and the United States as equals, as envisaged by Singaporean statesman Lee Kuan Yew
American leaders will need to be much more open with their citizens about what is required to achieve dominance over China — a truly national effort over generations involving most arms of government and broader society
That’s what was needed to win the Cold War
what marked American commitment to fighting the Soviet Union was a willingness to make sacrifices
and risk a potentially massive human cost to prevent Soviet world domination
That resolve is what convinced Moscow that a military assault on Western Europe would ultimately be met by an American nuclear response
even if that meant the United States would face retaliation against its own cities
Taiwan is the epicenter of the U.S.-Chinese contest — the Berlin of the new cold war
Alperovitch lists various reasons why Taiwan’s security is vital for the United States
But another long section of the book is devoted to the many reasons why America underestimates its own strength
It’s the kind of argument (entirely persuasive
to my mind) that is always best made by an immigrant who more clearly sees the greatness in his adopted homeland
But it leaves the reader wondering how a country so young
and so innovative could be threatened by the loss of a distant island with a population of 23 million people
Such a loss would be a tragedy for the Taiwanese people
not a big enough loss to consider fighting World War III to prevent it
It leaves one wondering if Americans are once again prepared to make the kinds of sacrifices asked of them in the Cold War
The gulf between the American public and its elites on the China question
and the unwillingness of those elites to try to bridge it
suggests that the national resolve needed to fight another cold war is absent this time around
Sam Roggeveen is director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute, Sydney. He is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace
Image: U.S. Department of State via Wikimedia Commons
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In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency
rescuers conduct a search and rescue operation at one of the two passenger boats capsized in Qianxi City
southwest China’s Guizhou Province on Monday
This photo released by Xinhua News Agency shows rescuers carrying out search and rescue operation at the site showing the two passenger boats capsized in Qianxi City
rescuers carrying out search and rescue operation at the site where two passenger boats capsized in Qianxi City
southwest China’s Guizhou Province on Sunday
BEIJING (AP) — Four boats capsized in a sudden storm at a tourist spot in southwestern China
More than 80 people fell into a river when strong winds hit the scenic area in Guizhou province late Sunday afternoon
The boats capsized after a sudden rain and hail storm on the upper reaches of the Wu River
a man could be seen performing CPR on another person
while one of the vessels drifted upside down
Initial reports said two tourist boats had capsized
but state media said on Monday that four boats were involved
and the seven crew members were able to save themselves
AP correspondent Karen Chammas reports on four boats that capsized in China leaving 10 people dead
Guizhou’s mountains and rivers are a major tourism draw
and many Chinese were traveling during a five-day national holiday that ended Monday
Chinese President Xi Jinping called for all-out efforts to find the missing and care for the injured
the official Xinhua News Agency said on Sunday
Xi underscored the importance of strengthening safety at tourist attractions
large public venues and residential communities
as well as for the rush of people returning at the end of major holidays
CCTV said the capsized boats had a maximum capacity of about 40 people each and were not overloaded
An eyewitness told state-owned Beijing News the waters were deep but that some people had managed to swim to safety
the storm had come suddenly and a thick mist obscured the surface of the river
Foreign Affairs has been the leading forum for serious discussion of American foreign policy and global affairs
The magazine has featured contributions from many leading international affairs experts
TONG ZHAO is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Tong Zhao
at the contentious first meeting between senior Chinese foreign policy officials and their counterparts in the Biden administration
declared that the United States could no longer “speak with China from a position of strength.” The statement
has proved instructive for understanding China’s strategic outlook
Beijing has operated under the assumption that a profound shift in the balance of power between the two countries is underway
Chinese strategists perceive their country’s decades-long “strategic weakness” in its competition with the United States as coming to an end
driven by steady advances in China’s industrial
and military capabilities and an increase in its international influence
This progress has ushered in what Beijing views as a “strategic stalemate” with the United States
in which both nations now wield comparable power
阅读中文版 (Read in Chinese)
which has responded to Trump’s escalation of trade tensions in April with patience
anticipating that Trump will eventually lower U.S
tariffs in an attempt to reach an agreement
But despite the low immediate risk of conflict between the United States and China
the current stalemate may not prove durable
the risk of a military crisis will likely rise as the two countries increasingly test each other’s resolve
By the time Trump’s current term nears its conclusion
China will have had ample opportunity to reevaluate the United States’ domestic political environment
the global economy’s dependence on the island’s semiconductor industry
and the trajectory of China’s own economic development and military modernization
The risk of a U.S.-Chinese military crisis could sharply escalate if Beijing further closes the capability gap with Washington and perceives international indifference to Taiwan’s status
grows frustrated with nonmilitary efforts to unite Taiwan with China
and foresees more pro-Taiwan leadership in Washington and Taipei
What appears today as strategic stalemate could rapidly transform into something more volatile—and dangerous—for both countries
Beijing has been willing to bide its time as Trump unilaterally weakens the United States’ standing in the world
Despite the Trump administration’s aggressive tariffs on China
many Chinese strategists have downplayed the frequently voiced international concern that the trade war raises the risk of military conflict
heightened trade tensions are simply the first phase of Trump’s signature negotiating tactic: squeeze hard
is content to let Trump’s trademark strategy run its course
expecting it to falter as the United States faces severe economic and diplomatic consequences
Beijing has shown similarly little inclination to initiate near-term military conflict
even over issues of core national interest such as Taiwan
has been underwritten by a military buildup
that Chinese officials see as critical to shifting the balance of power with the United States
Trump’s fixation on “holding the cards” in international disputes only reinforces Beijing’s conviction that hard power rules
And Beijing believes it is in position to gain the upper hand
Despite Trump’s stated interest in arms control talks with China and Russia
officials in Beijing see the White House’s erratic
disjointed decision-making as an impediment to any potential grand bargain
They feel less inclined to pursue cooperative security measures and are prioritizing the development of China’s own military capabilities
As the United States’ global authority fades rapidly
international pressure on China to join arms control talks will diminish
hampered by an increasingly disordered governance system
including his commitment to maintaining the world’s most powerful military and his proposal to build a “Golden Dome” missile defense system
As the United States diverts resources toward fanciful efforts to defend its homeland against China’s comparatively low-cost attack capabilities
China’s military buildup and its assessment of the United States’ stagnation has also emboldened Beijing to act more assertively to shape the behavior of smaller countries in the region
As Washington’s capacity and credibility erode
and South Korea while drawing firmer redlines around its core interests
Its seemingly contradictory surges in economic and diplomatic outreach and its military muscle flexing
evident in high-profile drills near Australia and Japan in February
actions characteristic of the great power it believes it has become
Despite rising political and military tensions across the strait since Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te took office in 2024
China’s Taiwan Work Conference in February and the convening of the Chinese Communist Party’s “Two Sessions” conferences in March revealed more continuity than change in Beijing’s near-term Taiwan strategy
which combines patience with the methodical
systematic expansion of control over cross-strait relations
This indicates no significant elevation in the threat of an attack in the near term
Although the Chinese Communist Party’s recent meetings have not suggested that a Chinese military move against the island is imminent
the risk of a conflict in the medium term is growing
Beijing’s strategy has evolved from primarily preventing Taiwanese independence to actively pursuing unification
“Overall Strategy for Resolving the Taiwan Question in the New Era.” Details are limited
but the new approach seems to emphasize the boosting of China’s influence within Taiwanese society
nudging Taiwanese to see unification as their least bad option
Beijing has been collaborating with Taiwanese civil-society organizations
and influencers to undercut Taipei’s narratives
handing out Chinese ID cards to Taiwanese citizens
and even securing loyalty pledges from Taiwanese military officers
such as Lai’s 17-point plan to combat such infiltration
appear to Beijing as acts of pro-independence defiance that have required China to intensify its air and sea incursions and carry out bigger
which has largely turned its back on Lai’s administration
has little hope that a pro-Chinese leader will win Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election
increasing the likelihood of escalation with Taipei
even nonmilitary unification measures regarded by Beijing as peaceful carry a risk of military escalation to all-out conflict
Trump’s lack of clear foreign policy priorities amplifies this risk. His reluctance to engage in conflicts with a great power, lack of interest in defending other democracies, and shaky commitment to Taiwan loom large to Chinese officials. Many in Beijing suspect that if any U.S. president might quietly tolerate China’s coercive takeover of Taiwan
China’s early April military exercises in the strait served in part as a probe of his resolve
The Trump administration’s verbal condemnations in response did not impress Beijing
with Chinese analysts highlighting the relatively muted nature of the U.S
Other restraining forces are also rapidly weakening
As the United States engages in naked coercion of allies and adversaries alike
smaller states in the region and beyond face new dilemmas
They have fewer incentives to antagonize China
especially as it positions itself as a comparatively more predictable and less disruptive global power that consistently outpaces the United States in economic and military growth
the international will and capacity to pressure China toward restraint in Taiwan may wane in a more multipolar world
the Trump administration is beefing up the United States’ military deterrent against China amid growing concerns about Beijing’s aggressive actions in Asia
But internal fissures have impeded the effort
disruptive overhauls in the Pentagon and broader bureaucracy
driven by administration loyalists eager to carry out the president’s agenda
have made Beijing doubt the United States’ ability to bolster its military capabilities
Senior Defense Department officials aren’t fully aligned on the importance of Taiwan to U.S
has said that “Americans could survive without it” and is pushing instead to thwart China’s broader regional dominance
Trump’s own wavering commitment to Taiwan further risks rendering any military preparations hollow
His recent dismissal of National Security Council senior officials insufficiently committed to his “America first” foreign policy sounded a warning shot to like-minded peers across the administration
the ratcheting up of tensions sparked by the trade war has strengthened national cohesion within China
Even the country’s most liberal-leaning strategists
now label Washington the aggressor and advocate for tougher measures to counter U.S
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s forecast of “great changes unseen in a century” appears prescient
makes Beijing less likely to engage in the critical self-reflection necessary to dispassionately evaluate its own strategic planning—and more likely to intensify its military buildup and pursuit of unification
Trump’s demand for loyalty and his expansive use of executive power to enforce compliance and conformity across the government have eroded the administration’s ability to self-evaluate
And without dissenting voices within the administration
the United States cannot plan and develop effective military deterrence and responsibly manage future military crises
these internal dynamics—more than long-standing trade and foreign policy disputes—pose the greatest threat of turning strategic stalemate into acute crisis
To reduce the risks of catastrophic conflict
strategists in Beijing and Washington should look inward and scrutinize their own leadership before the uneasy stalemate can no longer hold
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Community Safety Department Director To Resign Amid Tension With Cambridge Police Department
From Lab to Startup: Harvard’s Office of Technology Development Paves the Way for Research Commercialization
People’s Forum on Graduation Readiness Held After Vote to Eliminate MCAS
8 Takeaways From Harvard’s Task Force Reports
Former Harvard Chemistry professor Charles M. Lieber, who was convicted of lying to federal authorities about his ties to China in 2021
took a new job as a professor at a Chinese university last week
Lieber started his new role at Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School
where he now holds the school’s highest faculty rank
“Shenzhen’s dynamism and innovative spirit align perfectly with my vision to co-create a global scientific hub here,” Lieber said during an April 28 ceremony welcoming Lieber to the university
Lieber was found guilty in 2021 of six felony counts of concealing his ties to the Thousand Talents Program, a Chinese government initiative which brings overseas researchers to the country, in misleading statements and falsely reported tax returns. In 2023, Lieber was sentenced to one day in prison
He had been actively searching for a job in China since at least last June. In October, a federal judge granted him permission to visit China for “employment networking” and to deliver a lecture in Beijing
a pioneer in applying nanotechnology to biology and medicine
once held Harvard’s highest faculty rank as a University Professor and was an internationally celebrated chemist
His arrest drew backlash from many prominent scientists
including seven Nobel laureates and more than two dozen Harvard professors
who signed an open letter calling his prosecution “unjust.” The letter cautioned that similar legal actions could have a “chilling effect” on global scientific collaboration
His new position in China comes as the country attempts to catch up — or even surpass — advanced industrial economies
in its technological prowess by investing heavily in research and scientific education
Tsinghua SIGS Dean Ouyang Zheng said during the April ceremony that Lieber’s new appointment would “advance SIGS’s academic excellence and contribute to the establishment of a world-class scholarly community,” according to the press release
—Staff writer William C. Mao can be reached at william.mao@thecrimson.com. Follow him on X @williamcmao
—Staff writer Veronica H. Paulus can be reached at veronica.paulus@thecrimson.com. Follow her on X @VeronicaHPaulus
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the current bookmakers' favorite to be the next pope
is facing renewed scrutiny over a deal he made with China seven years ago
The 70-year-old Vatican Secretary of State has long been in the running as a contender to replace Pope Francis as the head of the Catholic church
which explains why the 2018 deal he made with the Chinese Communist Party is once again under the spotlight
The deal that Parolin engineered gave Beijing a formal say in the appointment of Catholic bishops in China
Rome was trying to address deep divisions within the Catholic Church in China which had been split in two—the official
state-sanctioned church and the underground church which remained loyal to the Vatican
While some hailed the deal as a diplomatic breakthrough
who has repeatedly called it a "betrayal" of the underground Catholic church in China
The affair has resurfaced as the world awaits the upcoming conclave
which will determine the leader of the largest church on the globe
John Allen Jr, editor of Crux, a Catholic news website, told the Financial Times on Monday: "Generations of Chinese Catholics have been martyred for their refusal to accept Communist control of the Catholic church
harassed and persecuted … and some of them regard this deal as a betrayal of their suffering."
senior fellow and director of the Center for Religious Freedom at Hudson Institute
an American journal focused on religion and culture
"The deal endangers faithful clergy in China," she wrote
"A stark reminder of this reality came last month when the Chinese state security authorities indefinitely detained Bishop Peter Shao Zhumin of the Catholic Diocese of Wenzhou without due process
"This is the sixty-one-year-old underground prelate's eighth detention over the last seven years," she added
She called for the next pope to have a "better China policy" and said Parolin would be Beijing's top pick as "no one among the leading papal candidates has more experience working with China than Cardinal Parolin."
In a move that highlights this long-standing controversy
the day after Francis' death on Easter Monday
China "elected" a new bishop of Diocese Xinxiang despite the current period of sede vacante
a Latin term meaning "the seat being vacant," referring to the period between the death or resignation of a pope and the election of his successor
no major decisions (such as the election of a bishop) are allowed
China's decision to carry out the election and make the announcement "highlights the continued official policy of the Chinese state not to recognize any outside authority in the organization of the Church in China
including the Holy See," canon lawyers JD Flynn and Ed
Condon wrote in their Catholic newsletter The Pillar
Cardinal Joseph Zen previously told Reuters after the deal was made: "They're [sending] the flock into the mouths of the wolves
The consequences will be tragic and long-lasting
not only for the church in China but for the whole church because it damages the credibility."
Defending the agreement in 2018, the late Pope Francis said that "both sides lose something" in every agreement" and praised the "patience and wisdom" of Parolin and the others who negotiated the deal, according to Vatican News
Parolin told a symposium on religious freedom in April that the deal was signed "to advance religious freedom in the sense of finding (some) normalization for the Catholic community."
"History was not built in one day; history is a long process," he said
"And I think we have to put ourselves in this perspective."
The conclave will begin on May 7
when the electors will be sequestered in the Vatican's Sistine Chapel until a new pope is chosen
Each ballot will require a two-thirds majority
and while some past conclaves have resolved quickly
How long the papal conclave process takes is largely dependent on the level of agreement within the College of Cardinals
White smoke will be released to announce a new pope has been selected
Newsweek is committed to journalism that's factual and fair
Hold us accountable and submit your rating of this article on the meter.
Martin Wolf made a very strong case for why China is in a stronger position
and while I agree with almost everything he wrote
And that particular claim is so important to his overall argument that
then much (though not all) of China’s supposed edge in the conflict would vanish
while for the US it is mainly a supply shock
It is easier to replace lost demand than missing supply
China does not depend much on imports from the U.S.—and much of what it does import from the U.S
and microchips) can be secured from others at comparable prices—whereas Americans are remarkably reliant on Chinese production for everything from batteries to children’s books to garlic
Stopping trade between the two societies will squeeze the income of China’s exporters (demand shock) and the volume of goods available to America’s consumers (supply shock)
The problem is that the second sentence, while almost always true, does not seem to be relevant to China now. Even though replacing any drop in foreign demand should be straightforward, there are good reasons to think that China’s policymakers may find themselves unable or unwilling to do what is necessary
Keynes’s experiences helping the UK manage the material and financial challenges of WWI and WWII gave him a keen understanding of the importance of respecting material constraints
As I noted 18 months ago
while many people love to quote Keynes’s line that “anything we can actually do we can afford”
it is worth remembering that it was part of a longer presentation on British postwar reconstruction in which he warned about the dangers of what would happen if policymakers failed to “prevent a demand in excess of the physical possibilities of supply”
Keynes’s single most important piece of advice
was for Britons to make “any reasonable sacrifice in the interests of exports” to generate hard currency needed for essential imports
From this perspective, China has arguably been the society most committed to Keynesianism over the past few decades. Aggregate growth has been sustained despite large changes in both external and domestic conditions thanks to a high tolerance for debt
Martin Wolf made a very strong case for why China is in a stronger position
then much (though not all) of China\u2019s supposed edge in the conflict would vanish
China does not depend much on imports from the U.S.\u2014and much of what it does import from the U.S
and microchips) can be secured from others at comparable prices\u2014whereas Americans are remarkably reliant on Chinese production for everything from batteries to children\u2019s books to garlic
Stopping trade between the two societies will squeeze the income of China\u2019s exporters (demand shock) and the volume of goods available to America\u2019s consumers (supply shock)
The problem is that the second sentence, while almost always true, does not seem to be relevant to China now. Even though replacing any drop in foreign demand should be straightforward, there are good reasons to think that China\u2019s policymakers may find themselves unable or unwilling to do what is necessary
Keynes\u2019s experiences helping the UK manage the material and financial challenges of WWI and WWII gave him a keen understanding of the importance of respecting material constraints
As I noted 18 months ago
while many people love to quote Keynes\u2019s line that \u201Canything we can actually do we can afford\u201D
it is worth remembering that it was part of a longer presentation on British postwar reconstruction in which he warned about the dangers of what would happen if policymakers failed to \u201Cprevent a demand in excess of the physical possibilities of supply\u201D
Keynes\u2019s single most important piece of advice
was for Britons to make \u201Cany reasonable sacrifice in the interests of exports\u201D to generate hard currency needed for essential imports
From this perspective, China has arguably been the society most committed to Keynesianism over the past few decades. Aggregate growth has been sustained despite large changes in both external and domestic conditions thanks to a high tolerance for debt
But on a mild Monday evening in Sheffield and 20 years on from the door for Chinese snooker being pushed ajar, Zhao Xintong may well have just changed the way the sport is viewed, played and followed for hundreds of millions of people in Asia and across the world.
Read moreIt was 2005 when Ding Junhui’s victory in the UK Championship against Steve Davis gave snooker hope it could be about to usher in a wave of success from China
There are over 300,000 snooker halls in the country
Over 150 million were watching this match in China
But there was always one thing missing: a Chinese world champion
That wait is over thanks to one of the most exceptional talents the sport has ever seen
It was just 227 days ago when Zhao made his return in an empty snooker hall in Sofia on the amateur tour with a 3-0 victory over Lithuania’s Vilius Schulte-Ebbert
Zhao was returning from a 20-month suspension for his part in the match-fixing scandal which embroiled the sport and threatened to grind Chinese snooker to a halt
It is important to point out that while 10 players were suspended for varying lengths of time
He did accept charges of being a party to another player fixing two games and betting on matches himself but showed remorse in admitting guilt in China and the UK
The reception from the Crucible crowd suggests that while doubters will remain
many are willing to give him a second chance
“It’s very good for Chinese snooker,” Zhao said
When I shook hands with Mark [Williams] I nearly cried
My first target was just to get through the qualifiers
was gracious enough to admit this moment could supersede what any victory may have meant for him
“Everyone’s got to get behind him and watch him – he could dominate,” he said
He was consigned to the Q Tour for amateurs but in truth
making two maximum breaks and proving near unbeatable
Zhao has won an incredible 42 of his first 44 games since returning
including five to qualify for this world championship
He was quietly fancied by some given his undeniable ability and his sensational temperament
but few could have imagined the manner in how he would handle the biggest occasion
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He performed with such effortless swagger throughout large periods of the final
against one of the greatest players of all time
Zhao emphatically won both afternoon sessions to move to within one frame of the title at the start of the final session but Williams was never going to go away quietly
he is the oldest finalist in Crucible history and after winning four consecutive frames on Monday evening
a 17-8 deficit was reduced to 17-12 in a matter of minutes
such has been his unflappable nature throughout the tournament
That proved to be the case in the 30th and final frame of the match
A break of 87 executed with the fluency that has taken him through the nine matches in qualifying and the main draw proved to be more than enough
with Zhao raising a Chinese flag aloft amid the celebrations to perhaps symbolically usher in a new era for the sport
The new champion did not have far to go with his trophy and £500,000 winner’s cheque: he lives just a 10-minute walk from the Crucible
But it is thousands of miles away where this triumph will truly be felt
and there was perhaps nobody better placed than Williams who best summed up the moment
“He’s bashed me up, bashed Ronnie [O’Sullivan] up and bashed everyone up
I’m glad I’ll be too old when he’s dominating.” Perhaps that dominance has already begun
and Frank Mattimoe of the Institute for the Study of War;
and Alex Chou of the American Enterprise Institute
Editors: Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Carl of the American Enterprise Institute
The China–Taiwan Weekly Update is a joint product from the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute
The update supports the ISW–AEI Coalition Defense of Taiwan project
which assesses Chinese campaigns against Taiwan
examines alternative strategies for the United States and its allies to deter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggression
and—if necessary—defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
The update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and cross–Taiwan Strait developments
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has continued its extensive espionage campaign against the United States and its partners in the Indo-Pacific
This campaign is meant to prepare the PRC for a possible regional war
This campaign was highlighted by the United States recently convicting a former Army intelligence analyst for spying for the PRC from 2022 to 2024.[1] The analyst provided the PRC information on lessons learned from the Russia–Ukraine war
which are applicable to the defense of Taiwan
PRC military officers have visited Russian-held territory in Ukraine and toured frontlines to learn lessons and prepare the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for modern warfare
PRC military thinkers have previously noted the cost-effectiveness of using drones to destroy high-value targets based on their observations from the war
The lessons that the PRC draws from the war will likely inform its doctrine and strategy
especially in an invasion of Taiwan scenario.[2]
The US Army intelligence analyst provided the PRC with information on US military exercises in South Korea and the Philippines as well
The conviction of the analyst came amid numerous reports of PRC espionage in these countries in recent months
This reported espionage has targeted key military bases
South Korea cannot charge the suspected spies because its counter-espionage law only applies to activities that are related to North Korea.[3] The PRC Embassy in Seoul has accused South Korea of exaggerating and politicizing the reported espionage.[4] There have been several PRC espionage allegations in South Korea in recent months
which suggests that the PRC has intensified its espionage activities amid South Korea’s leadership transition
South Korean authorities may have been more effective at countering alleged espionage in recent months
The Philippines has separately identified numerous cases of PRC espionage targeting critical infrastructure and military bases there in recent months
These activities complement PRC espionage operations in Taiwan
which could help prepare the PRC for an attack on the island
Former Taiwanese Military Intelligence Bureau Director Liu Te-liang said on April 24 that PRC espionage in Taiwan likely surpasses the previous estimate of 5,000 spies.[5] The William Lai Ching-te administration has accordingly intensified its counter-espionage efforts in recent weeks
especially targeting spies in the military
Most espionage cases in Taiwan in 2024 involved active or former military members.[6]
The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) called for the ouster of Taiwanese President Lai amid the continued
high-profile quarrel between Taiwan’s two most prominent political parties
KMT Chairman Eric Chu on April 27 urged legislators to recall Lai
anti-Lai demonstration outside the presidential office.[7] Protestors expressed opposition to “green communism,” a reference to the color of Lai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
echoing repeated KMT efforts to frame Lai as authoritarian.[8] Tens of thousands of people reportedly attended the demonstration
highlighting the salience of KMT narratives among portions of the Taiwanese public[9]
The KMT rhetoric is reinforcing the long-standing PRC effort to portray Lai and the DPP as authoritarian oppressors
The KMT rhetoric also highlights how easily PRC talking points can enter the mainstream Taiwanese political discourse
The KMT rhetoric risks undermining the credibility of Lai and his efforts to resist PRC aggression
The KMT's efforts against Lai came amid widespread campaigns to recall members of the Legislative Yuan in recent months
Fifty-eight legislators have been targeted by recall petitions so far
DPP Chairman Ker Chien-ming called for the recall of KMT and KMT-aligned legislators after they passed controversial legislation
including extensive budget cuts.[10] The recall petitions primarily targeted KMT and KMT-aligned legislators but have also expanded to target some members of the DPP
These recall petitions have catalyzed further political discord
including calls for votes of no-confidence against members of the presidential cabinet.[11] The recall petitions will likely fail to remove a significant number of legislators due to the widespread unpopularity of the recall campaigns
Continued friction within Taiwanese domestic politics does
risk increasing general feelings of chaos within the government and decreasing public faith in its elected officials
The PRC criticized a US military transit through the Taiwan Strait — the second of its kind in US President Donald Trump's second term
PRC officials' comments on the transit align with informational efforts to delegitimize the United States–Taiwan partnership
Lawrence sailed through the strait on April 23
which is responsible for operations involving Taiwan
stated that it observed the destroyer’s movements.[12] PLA Eastern Theater Command spokesperson Shi Yi accused the United States of hyping the transit and misleading “international perception.”[13] This response aligns with past PRC responses to transits of the Taiwan Strait
which the PRC called “provocative.”[14] The United States previously transited the strait in February 2025
The PRC aims to isolate Taiwan from its partners
The PRC is continuing to delegitimize the United States–Taiwan relationship by framing the United States as an unreliable partner to Taiwan
This aligns with PRC efforts to portray the DPP as a US pawn — a narrative that the PRC propagates to undermine Taiwan’s ruling authorities
PRC Ministry of National Defense spokesperson (MND) Zhang Xiaogang said on April 24 that the DPP treats Taiwan “as a battlefield” and that “If they are allowed to act on their own
Taiwan will surely be in danger.”[16] Zhang responded to a question on a US Army general’s observation of Taiwan’s Han Kuang Exercises by saying that Taiwan would be “stabbed in the back” and “abandoned” by the United States.[17] Zhang’s statements support an ongoing narrative that aims to undermine United States–Taiwan ties while creating the false impression that the PRC is Taiwan’s only safeguard
The China Coast Guard (CCG) conducted six incursions into Kinmen’s restricted waters in April 2025
continuing PRC efforts to normalize such incursions
The incursions occurred twice during the Strait Thunder-2025A exercise on April 1 and 2
and 23.[18] The PRC typically sends four CCG ships to simultaneously enter Kinmen’s restricted waters for approximately two hours during each incursion
The Strait Thunder-2025A exercise incursions differed in that they were in coordination with PLA ships as part of a broader military drill
April 2025 is the first month in over half a year with more than four CCG incursions into Kinmen’s restricted waters
with the Strait Thunder-2025A activities driving this discrepancy
These efforts are part of the PRC effort to reduce Taiwan’s threat awareness and expend Taiwanese resources
Kinmen is a Taiwanese-administered archipelago two miles from the PRC city of Xiamen
Taiwan does not claim territorial or contiguous waters around Kinmen Island due to its proximity to the PRC
but it maintains “prohibited” and “restricted” waters that are functionally equivalent
The Taiwan Coast Guard Association (CGA) has reported a total of 70 incursions since these incursions began in February 2024
ISW was able to track each reported incursion dating back to September 2024—the publicly available data prior to then is incomplete and thus excluded from the graph
A CCG vessel also circled within the restricted waters of Pratas on April 25
The Pratas Islands are in the South China Sea under Taiwanese jurisdiction and are an increasingly important flashpoint.[19] CCG ships were last reported in Pratas’s restricted waters on March 25 after Taiwan’s CGA expelled PRC fishing boats.[20]
PLA aircraft incursions in Taiwan's de facto Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) sustained a high frequency in April
The PRC has normalized a higher frequency of ADIZ incursions to degrade Taiwan’s threat awareness and response threshold
Incursions spiked at the start of the month as the PRC conducted large-scale joint military exercises around Taiwan
which it named “Strait Thunder-2025A.” Such spikes will likely become more common as the PRC standardizes pre-programmed blockade exercises as part of its coercion toolkit against Taiwan
This new normal of ADIZ incursions represents one of the many elements of intensifying PRC coercion against Taiwan and Lai’s administration
The normalization of more frequent ADIZ incursions by PLA aircraft raises the threshold of coercive activity that would trigger a Taiwanese response
making it more difficult for Taiwan to detect and respond to a real threat in time
Taiwan must put personnel on standby to respond to ADIZ incursions
which strains resources and exhausts personnel
The PRC calibrates its military activities around Taiwan to intimidate and deter it from practicing policies that the PRC perceives as supportive of Taiwanese sovereignty
PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ are a near daily occurrence that typically serve as a barometer for the PRC’s reactions to political developments regarding Taiwan
Spikes in ADIZ incursions often correspond to political incidents in Taiwan that the PRC opposes
including high-level meetings between Taiwanese and foreign officials or expressions of Taiwanese sovereignty by ROC leaders
The PRC is urging the international community to resist the United States’ tariff policy as US tariffs become a core focus of its propaganda
PRC Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi referred to the United States as a “bully” at a BRICS meeting on April 28
urging countries against appeasement to the Trump administration.[21] Wang also proposed four plans to improve global governance
including upholding multilateral trade rules and strengthening global financial governance.[22] The PRC has exploited American tariff policy to further criticisms of “Western hegemony” and juxtapose itself as a leader of multilateralism
The PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) released a propaganda video on April 29
repeating this rhetoric to foreign audiences
The PRC has maintained that it will not back down against American tariffs but has acknowledged the economic pressures and created some tariff exemptions
but MOFCOM denied this.[28] Trump then claimed to have spoken with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Secretary General Xi Jinping on the phone about tariffs
but the PRC MFA also denied that this happened.[29] The MFA spokesperson said that the United States “should stop threatening and blackmailing” if it wanted to resolve tariffs through negotiations.[30]
The PRC is courting investment from a leading artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor producer to circumvent the United States’ export restrictions.[31] Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with top CCP officials in Beijing on April 16
two weeks after the United States imposed new export restrictions on the company’s exports to the PRC.[32] Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Politburo member He Lifeng highlighted the PRC’s vast market potential and welcomed Nvidia to invest in the PRC to realize its industrial capacity.[33] He’s comments signify the PRC’s efforts to localize production and secure access to dual-use technology
Nvidia stated in a filing on April 15 that the US government was imposing license requirements on exports to the PRC of the H20 chip
which Nvidia designed with limited performance specifications to comply with earlier US export restrictions.[34] Nvidia is the dominant provider of advanced semiconductors that are optimized to train generative AI models
maintaining a market share of approximately 80 percent.[35]
The latest round of US export restrictions follows PRC-based AI company Deepseek’s release of its R1 reasoning model in January
which demonstrated the need for the United States to further tighten the performance limits of chips that qualify for shipment to the PRC
Semiconductor analytics firm Semi-Analysis estimates that Deepseek had at least 60,000 Nvidia chips
One of the primary goals of US export controls on advanced semiconductors to the PRC is to inhibit the PRC’s development of AI to support its military modernization efforts.[37] The PRC seeks to integrate AI into its military decision-making
and logistics as part its pursuit of “intelligentization”—a primary objective of PRC military modernization.[38] The technological demands of intelligentization require the PRC to co-opt private sector actors to support its activities as part of the PRC’s military-civil fusion policy.[39] The US House Select Committee on the CCP published a report on April 16 that detailed Deepseek’s strong connections and obligations to the PRC government and PLA
making the company’s AI development a challenge to US national security.[40]
The PRC criticized Japanese military enhancement and accused the Japanese government of exaggerating the threat posed by the PRC
Lockheed Martin and the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MOD) released additional details for the AEGIS System Equipped Vessel (ASEV) International Defense Exhibition in March 2025
The two ASEVs currently under construction are Japan’s solution to replace the cancelled acquisition of the AEGIS Ashore systems
which the United States had hoped to be part of its missile defense network in the Indo-Pacific.[41] Once completed
the ASEVs will be the world’s largest destroyers
surpassing the US Navy’s Ticonderoga class cruisers and the PLAN’s Type 055 destroyers in length and displacement
The MOD stated that the ASEVs will specialize in ballistic missile defense to repel sea-based attacks from Japan’s southwest.[42] The ASEVs will also be able to conduct long-range strikes with Japan’s improved Type-12 missiles and Hypersonic Glide Vehicles
This likely reflects Japan’s growing concerns about the security of its Nansei Islands
The MOD recently reported a significant increase in PLA drone activities around the Nansei Islands in fiscal year 2024
and the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs named the PRC as an “unprecedented challenge” in its 2025 Diplomatic Bluebook.[43]
PRC MND spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang criticized Japan for “pursuing breakthrough advancements in military capabilities” while exaggerating the "China threat."[44] Zhang said that PLA activities are intended to protect PRC sovereignty and security while adhering to international laws
The PRC routinely condemns negative portrayals of the PRC in official Japanese statements and sees enhancement of the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) capabilities as Japan’s attempt to “revive its militarist past” and create confrontation
PRC state media commented in 2022 that the ASEVs will likely be commissioned on schedule under pressure from Washington to become part of the US missile defense network
reflecting United States’ control over Japanese self-defense.[45] The report further criticized Japan for willing to become the United States’ “vassal state” in exchange for “resuming its path of military expansion that will only bring disaster to itself.”[46]
North Korea acknowledged its participation in Russian operations in Kursk Oblast for the first time
highlighting the increased strategic alignment between the two countries
North Korean state media Rodong Sinmun reported that the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) praised the “heroic achievements” of North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia on April 28.[47] The CMC described the deployment as part of “liberation operations” of Russia’s Kursk region against “neo-Nazi Ukrainian invasion forces” and that the operation has “successfully concluded.” ISW reports indicate that the fighting is ongoing in Kursk Oblast as of April 26
despite Russian claims that it had fully defeated Ukrainian forces in the region.[48] The CMC stated that the operation highlighted “the strong combat superiority” and strength of the alliance between the two nations.[49] The CMC justified North Korean troops’ deployment in the war by citing Article 4 of the Russian-North Korean Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
which calls for mutual military assistance
Rodong Sinmun included a statement issued by WPK General Secretary Kim Jong Un
who promised to honor those who were killed in action and take “national measures” to care for the families of the veterans
The North Korean acknowledgement comes after Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov made the first official Russian acknowledgement of North Korean troop participation in the war on April 26
Gerasimov said that North Korean forces "provided significant assistance" in pushing Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast
Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked North Korean troops for “fighting side by side with their Russian brothers in arms” in a written statement posted on the Kremlin website on April 28.[50] Russia is set to hold a military parade on May 9 marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II
Russia has invited Kim and a North Korean military unit to participate in the parade
Kim would be one of several leaders present alongside CCP Secretary General Xi Jinping.[51] A North Korean delegation’s visit to Moscow on April 30 increases the likelihood of Kim’s attendance.[52]
A strong North Korean–Russian partnership could drive competition for influence between Russia and the PRC
North Korea’s emphasis on its “brotherhood” with Russia is likely intended to position itself as an equal ally to Russia
North Korea’s claim of victory in Ukraine mirrors Russia’s narrative ahead of Victory Day
aiming to promote the achievements of both Putin and Kim in challenging the US-backed forces
A potential ceasefire in Ukraine could pivot North Korea toward greater economic cooperation with the PRC as an alternative economic partner to Russia
Its partnership with Russia gives North Korea greater leverage and strategic independence
helping it avoid overreliance on the PRC.[53]
North Korea showcased its naval modernization by demonstrating the missile capabilities of its largest destroyer
WPK General Secretary Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae attended the launch ceremony of the new destroyer Choe Hyon at the Nampo Shipyard on April 26
The Choe Hyon is a 5,000-ton-class warship
upgraded from previous vessels under 2,000 tons.[54] North Korea demonstrated a series of missile launches from the Choe Hyon on April 28
and test firing of a 127mm shipboard automatic gun.”[55] It further tested “ship-to-ship tactical guided weapon
various shipboard automatic machine guns,” and “electronic jamming guns” on April 29.[56] The Choe Hyon reportedly equips vertical launch system (VLS) capabilities
which would enable the ship to carry nuclear-armed short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs)
yet the two-day test did not include such weapons.[57] The Choe Hyon will officially enter service in early 2026 and join the Korean People’s Army Navy’s East Sea Fleet
Kim vowed to continue building warships and frigates as quickly as possible
establishing an operational fleet by 2026.[58] The new destroyer follows the unveiling of what North Korea claims to be a nuclear submarine in March 2025.[59]
The Choe Hyon showcases North Korea’s enhanced nuclear strike capabilities and could strengthen its leverage in future negotiations with the United States
The new destroyer increases the credibility of North Korea’s deterrent posture toward both South Korea and the United States
The ship’s surface-to-air missiles (SAM) enable North Korea to target aerial assets in international airspace off the east and west coasts of the Korean Peninsula.[60] North Korea can target key assets throughout South Korea closer and with greater mobility if it successfully demonstrates nuclear-capable SRBMs from the destroyer
Kim justified this military development by accusing the United States and South Korea of intensifying provocative acts while ignoring North Korea’s security concerns.[61]
Six China Coast Guard (CCG) personnel landed on the disputed Sandy Cay in the Spratly Islands
possibly signaling that the PRC will aggressively pursue territorial claims in the South China Sea amid growing US-Philippine military cooperation
The PRC presence on Sandy Cay indicates its opposition to US-Philippine defense cooperation in the Luzon Strait — a chokepoint between Taiwan and the Philippines
Sandy Cay is located near a Philippine military base on Thitu Island in the Spratly archipelago.[62] China Central Television reported that CCG officers planted a PRC flag on the shoal to declare PRC sovereignty over the territory
[63] The PRC released a report claiming that their team found evidence of "illegal activity" by the Philippines
including fishing and environmental degradation from Philippine construction on Thitu Island.[64] The Philippines stated that it witnessed "the illegal presence" of a PRC Coast Guard vessel 1,000 yards from one of the sandbanks near Sandy Cay and seven PRC militia vessels in the area.[65] A Philippine contingent landed in the area on April 27.[66] Philippine officials later claimed that the PRC did not seize the disputed reef
finding no signs of the PRC militarizing the island.[67]
Both the Philippines and the PRC have increased their presence in the disputed territory by constructing military structures and the deployment of area interdiction capabilities
The Philippines constructed a monitoring facility on Thitu Island in 2023 and has sought to upgrade an airstrip and other military infrastructure on the island
The PRC has likewise placed surface-to-air missiles nearby and constructed hangars
and a deepwater shelter port on nearby Subi Reef.[68]
The PRC may have meant its Sandy Cay landing as a signal against the Philippines amid growing United States-Philippine defense cooperation
The CCG landing occurred concurrently with the United States-Philippines Balikatan military exercises in the Strait of Luzon
The United States stationed the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) missiles as part of the exercise on Batan Island in the Luzon Strait—the first such deployment of this system in the Philippines.[69] The NMESIS deployment on April 26 threatens PRC vessels’ ability to remain undetected while transiting the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines
The PRC’s Sandy Cay mission demonstrates its willingness to counter United States–Philippine military cooperation and aims to expand existing PRC claims in the area
The PLA Navy and CCG have pursued similar military readiness drills as United States–Philippine cooperation has increased
The PRC launched joint patrols in February 2025 as Manila increased troop numbers in its northernmost province of Batanes
This coincided with an exercise between the Philippines
and Australia.[70] The PRC has likewise increased the regularity of military patrols to support its claims over disputed territory in the South China Sea
The United States sanctioned PRC and Iran-based entities and individuals involved in ballistic missile propellant procurement for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
US sanctions have targeted Iran-PRC cooperation as part of US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated six individuals and six entities for participating in a network that transferred sodium perchlorate and dioctyl sebacate to Iran from the PRC
Sodium perchlorate is a precursor for ammonium perchlorate; both ammonium perchlorate and dioctyl sebacate can be used in solid-propellant rocket motors for ballistic missiles.[71]
These sanctions align with previous US efforts to curtail PRC involvement in Iran’s illicit economic activity and come shortly after an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port
attributed to the mishandling of sodium perchlorate.[72] The PRC shipped sodium perchlorate to Iran in January 2025
when two Iranian ships reportedly transported the material.[73] International Institute for Strategic Studies researcher Fabian Hinz told the Wall Street Journal at the time that the PRC has been involved with supplying Iranian missiles and rockets’ solid propellant since as early as the 1990s.[74]
[1] https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-us-army-intelligence-analyst-sentenced-selling-sensitive-military-information
[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-april-18-2025
[3] https://www.seoul.co dot kr/news/society/accident/2025/04/24/20250424500228
[4] https://www.mk.co dot kr/news/society/11303243
[5] https://taiwannews.com dot tw/en/news/6093148
[6] https://stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-uncovers-more-deep-chinese
[7] https://www.taiwannews.com dot tw/news/6095464; https://www.taiwannews.com dot tw/news/6095719
[8] https://focustaiwan dot tw/politics/202504280020
[9] https://www.taiwannews.com dot tw/news/6085845; https://www.taipeitimes dot com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/04/28/2003835970
[10] https://udn dot com/news/story/124323/8680637
[11] https://focustaiwan dot tw/politics/202504180006; https://www.taiwannews.com dot tw/news/6088766
[12] https://www.newsweek.com/us-navy-ship-taiwan-strait-transit-trump-china-2063395
[14] https://www.rfa.org/english/china/2025/02/13/us-transit-taiwan-strait/
[15] https://www.rfa.org/english/china/2025/02/13/us-transit-taiwan-strait/
[16] http://www.mod.gov dot cn/gfbw/xwfyr/lxjzh_246940/16382785.html
[17] http://www.mod.gov dot cn/gfbw/xwfyr/lxjzh_246940/16382785.html
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[19] https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/the-pratas-islands-a-new-flashpoint-in-the-south-china-sea/
[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-march-27-2025
https://www.cga.gov https://www.cga.gov dot tw/GipOpen/wSite/ct?xItem=164632&ctNode=650&mp=999
https://www.cga.gov dot tw/GipOpen/wSite/ct?xItem=164616&ctNode=650&mp=999
[21] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/china-vows-to-stand-firm-urges-nations-to-resist-bully-trump/ar-AA1DNRgY
[22] https://www.mfa dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202504/t20250429_11606576.shtml
http://www.news dot cn/world/20250429/f1a6c29cc9484113bb296936c2f49420/c.html
[23] https://x.com/MFA_China/status/1917069881142612278
[24] http://www.news dot cn/world/20250429/a1e701199b514bd39f7f56fb9716cfd5/c.html
[25] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/25/china-tariffs-semiconductors/
[26] https://www.mfa dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/202504/t20250425_11604486.shtml
[27] https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-signals-that-door-to-u-s-trade-talks-is-open-but-not-under-duress-d03292d0?mod=china_news_article_pos2
[28] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/pboc-s-pan-warns-trade-frictions-threaten-trust-in-world-economy?srnd=phx-politics
[29] https://www.ft.com/content/0192ea53-e97b-4dfd-9483-110678c4c863
https://www.mfa dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/202504/t20250428_11606158.shtml
[30] https://www.mfa dot gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/fyrbt_674889/202504/t20250428_11606158.shtml
[31] https://www.globaltimes dot cn/page/202504/1332329.shtml
https://www.gov dot cn/yaowen/liebiao/202504/content_7019416.htm
[32] https://www.gov dot cn/yaowen/liebiao/202504/content_7019416.htm
[33] https://www.gov dot cn/yaowen/liebiao/202504/content_7019416.htm
[34] https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001045810/9e6e2d94-83a7-465c-8a94-982d82e3e9e7.pdf
[35] https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/02/03/deepseek-shocked-the-ai-market-last-week-heres-why/
[36] https://semianalysis.com/2025/01/31/deepseek-debates/#closing-the-gap-v3%e2%80%99s-performance
[37] https://www.bis.gov/press-release/commerce-strengthens-restrictions-advanced-computing-semiconductors-enhance-foundry
[38] http://www.gov dot cn/zhengce/2019-07/24/content_5414325.htm
[39] http://www.qstheory dot cn/2019-03/04/c_1124190255.htm
[40] https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/DeepSeek%20Final.pdf
[41] https://asia.nikkei dot com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/US-says-Japan-suspended-Aegis-Ashore-not-canceled
[42] https://www.mod.go dot jp/j/policy/defense/bmd/index.html
[43] https://asia.nikkei dot com/Politics/Defense/China-drone-activity-triggers-more-Japan-SDF-jet-scrambles ; https://www.mofa.go dot jp/mofaj/files/100826205.pdf
[44] mod.gov dot cn/gfbw/xwfyr/lxjzh_246940/16382785.html
[45] military.cnr dot cn/jsrp/20221009/t20221009_526031342.shtml
[46] military.cnr dot cn/jsrp/20221009/t20221009_526031342.shtml
[47] http://www.rodong.rep dot kp/ko/index.php?MTJAMjAyNS0wNC0yOC0wNTFAMTVAMUBAMEAxQA==
[48] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
[49] http://www.rodong.rep dot kp/ko/index.php?MTJAMjAyNS0wNC0yOC0wNTFAMTVAMUBAMEAxQA==
[50] http://en.kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76805
[51] https://www.reuters dot com/world/chinas-xi-accepts-invitation-attend-moscows-victory-day-may-tass-reports-2025-02-10/
[52] https://n.news.naver dot com/mnews/article/422/0000735965
[53] https://www.understandingwar dot org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-april-25-2025
[54] https://www.sedaily dot com/NewsView/2GROO0XEDD
[55] https://www.nknews dot org/2025/04/north-korea-conducts-cruise-and-anti-aircraft-missile-tests-from-new-warship/
[56] https://www.nknews dot org/2025/04/north-korea-conducts-cruise-and-anti-aircraft-missile-tests-from-new-warship/
[57] https://www.donga dot com/en/article/all/20250428/5573983/1
[58] https://www.yna.co dot kr/amp/view/MYH20250427012100038
[59] https://www.joongang dot co.kr/article/25319255
[60] https://www.nknews dot org/2025/04/north-korea-conducts-cruise-and-anti-aircraft-missile-tests-from-new-warship/
[61] https://www.nknews.org/2025/04/north-korea-launches-largest-new-warship-on-west-coast-state-media/
[62] https://www.ft.com/content/ae6acb23-7b09-4783-8ebb-9e88b5126361
[63] https://tv.cctv dot com/2025/04/26/VIDEZXvKusGQomv6fMjlO6yW250426.shtml
[64] https://www.scmp dot com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3307920/south-china-sea-china-blames-philippine-activity-coral-damage-disputed-sandy-cay
[65] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-says-china-has-not-seized-disputed-south-china-sea-reef-2025-04-28/
[66] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/creqp4lxnl4o
[67] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-says-china-has-not-seized-disputed-south-china-sea-reef-2025-04-28/
[68] https://www.ft.com/content/ae6acb23-7b09-4783-8ebb-9e88b5126361
[69] https://www.pacom.mil/Media/NEWS/News-Article-View/Article/4168430/us-marine-corps-joint-force-deploy-nmesis-to-batanes-for-exercise-balikatan-2025/
[70] https://www.scmp dot com/news/china/military/article/3295368/pla-carries-out-first-south-china-sea-patrol-year-philippine-tensions-continue
[71] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0116
[72] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/26/world/middleeast/iran-port-explosion-bandar-abbas.html
[73] https://www.ft.com/content/f0bc9fcc-11b3-4615-bd24-163f8938f2a5
[74] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/china-is-helping-supply-chemicals-for-irans-ballistic-missile-program-ab272ad7
China’s Commerce Ministry said Friday that Beijing is evaluating multiple approaches by the Trump administration for trade talks
but steep tariffs imposed by Washington must go
A ministry statement reiterated China’s stance that is open to talks
but also that Beijing is determined to fight if it must
It said one-sided tariffs of up to 145 percent remain an obstacle
“The tariff and trade wars were unilaterally initiated by the U.S.
and be ready to take action on issues such as correcting wrong practices and canceling the unilateral imposition of tariffs,” it said
READ MORE: Shipments from China fall as Trump’s tariffs loom over economy
An unnamed ministry spokesperson was cited as saying that Beijing had taken note of various statements by senior U.S
officials indicating a willingness to negotiate over tariffs
has recently taken the initiative to convey information to the Chinese side on a number of occasions through relevant parties
the Chinese side is making an assessment,” it said
But it emphasized that China would regard overtures without a change in President Donald Trump’s sharp tariff hikes as insincere
or even attempting to engage in coercion and blackmail under the guise of talks
will not work on the Chinese side,” it said
with government offices and markets closed
But share prices in Hong Kong jumped 1.7 percent early Friday
while Taiwan’s benchmark index was up 2.2 percent
READ MORE: As Trump trade wars disrupt businesses, U.S. economy shrinks 0.3 percent in first quarter
the Trump administration is ending a duty-free exemption on low-value imports from China
That will mean higher prices and delivery delays when the government starts collecting tariffs on every single shipment
Beijing has responded to Trump’s tariff hikes by raising its own duties on imports of U.S
It has also tightened restrictions on exports to the U.S
of certain strategically important minerals and stopped importing a wide range of U.S
China has sought to join with other countries to build a united front against Trump
while ramping up its own countermeasures to the impact of Trump’s tariffs
Trump has slapped a global 10 percent import tax
to try to compel manufacturers to shift factories back to the U.S
He ordered double-digit “reciprocal” tariffs for many countries but then postponed their implementation for 90 days to allow time for negotiations
READ MORE: China says it has tools to protect jobs and economy from U.S. trade war
The toughest measures were reserved for China
the world’s biggest exporter and second largest economy
investors and consumers stymied over what comes next
who is leading the administration’s approach to China
has said he expects Beijing to call because the tariffs are not sustainable
In an interview Thursday with Fox Business
Bessent said the main issue with Beijing was not high tariffs but other barriers
“There’s a whole range of bad behavior by the Chinese,” Bessent said
mentioning theft of intellectual property like trademarks and cyberhacking.”
everything is on the table for the economic relationship,” he said
adding ”I am confident that the Chinese will want to reach a deal.”
Beijing has shown scant willingness to compromise
with its foreign ministry posting a strident video on social media this week saying the U.S
It vowed China would not “kneel down” in the trade war
“Kneeling only invites more bullying,” it said
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President Donald Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point because the levies now are so high that the world’s two largest economies have essentially stopped doing business with each other
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Nvidia’s hefty financial hit comes from a new Trump administration rule requiring the company to acquire a special license to sell its H20 chips in China
adding another hurdle in accessing one of the world’s biggest tech markets and the United States’ foremost competitor in the race for artificial intelligence
The Trump administration has said that the new license requirement is intended to prevent the chips from being “used in
a supercomputer in China,” according to Nvidia’s filing
It’s the latest attempt by the United States to slow China’s AI development and preserve the United States’ advantage
Some experts and policymakers are now questioning whether it’s too late to keep China from catching up to U.S
and whether the United States should instead pursue a more collaborative approach with Beijing on AI development and regulation
displays some of the company’s graphics cards at the developer conference GTC in San Jose
Nvidia created the H20 as a workaround for U.S
government restrictions on another one of its chips—the H800
which the Biden administration banned the company from selling to China in October 2023
The H800 had also been created in response to earlier restrictions by the Biden administration on Nvidia’s sales
“The first round of chip controls came and they set this bar
we’ll build the fanciest thing we can that’s allowed
because we’ve just been told we could sell those’—and then a bunch of people in Washington were angry
as if this was a sort of unpatriotic thing to do,” said Graham Webster
a research scholar at Stanford University who focuses on China’s tech policy
“I think [Nvidia’s] orientation is pretty consistent—build increasingly advanced chips and sell as many as they can to whoever they can get them to,” he said
Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs)—a type of semiconductor circuit that the company invented in 1999—have exploded in popularity recently because of their critical role in training artificial intelligence models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and its competitors
They have also made the company’s products a prime target of export controls by successive U.S
administrations intent on curbing China’s access to advanced technology
The Biden administration broadened the fight in 2022
imposing export restrictions on chips and chipmaking technology to China and continuing to periodically expand those restrictions all the way up until the end of Biden’s term in January
One of the big uncertainties hanging over Trump’s return to the White House was how his past hawkishness on China pre-Biden would manifest itself post-Biden. While there have been some reversals (see: TikTok) and some continuations (see: trade war)
early signs of his second-term strategy to curb China’s semiconductor industry point to more of the same
Trump is facing a slew of recent reminders from China of its continued—and
A trader reacts on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the opening bell in New York City on April 16 as global markets mostly retreated after the U.S
government imposed restrictions on exports of a key Nvidia chip to China
None of those reminders have been sharper than DeepSeek
whose R1 language model—released in late January—showcased capabilities rivaling those of U.S
leader OpenAI but at a fraction of the cost and computing power
DeepSeek’s debut sent shock waves through Washington
though experts still debate the extent to which it actually constituted a dreaded “Sputnik moment” for American AI
“The strength of the reaction in Washington showed that many people didn’t realize what a fast follower China was,” said Helen Toner
the director of strategy and foundational research grants at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology
DeepSeek’s unveiling raised questions for U.S
policymakers about the effectiveness of export controls
That’s because DeepSeek’s success came on the back of American chips—the company trained its model largely using Nvidia’s H800 and H20 GPUs
DeepSeek stockpiled enough H800s before the Biden administration clamped down on the chips in 2023
In the ever-expanding game of whack-a-mole
Chinese AI companies’ inability to access the most cutting-edge U.S
chips may have paradoxically supercharged their innovation by forcing them to be more resourceful
DeepSeek has really encouraged people who pay attention to AI development
because they believe it shows that even under sanctions and different kinds of embargoes of the United States
a Chinese company can still find a way to catch up,” said Xiao Qian
the vice dean of the Institute for AI International Governance and the deputy director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing
firms by only three months in core technologies
which it hopes will supersede the power of Nvidia’s H100—one of the previously banned chips—for model training
“There’s a very strong sense of insecurity here in China,” Xiao said
“Because of the unpredictability of the Trump administration
so it is natural that all the companies within China are trying to be more self-sufficient
even though at the moment they are still very strongly dependent on the Nvidia chips.”
China’s advancements haven’t exactly been a glowing testament to U.S
Yet many experts argue that the policy still has legs
Chinese AI companies have continued to do whatever they can to buy U.S. chips, which proves their superior quality and performance, said Miles Brundage, a nonresident senior fellow at the Institute for Progress who previously worked as the head of policy research at OpenAI. Before Trump brought the hammer down on H20 chips, Chinese companies had placed orders for 1.3 million of them, totaling more than $16 billion
“In terms of setting back the kind of scale of near-term AI training runs
some experts argue that the sheer volume of advanced chips is still a difference maker
China “finds a lot of ways to come up with innovative developments that maybe are less compute intensive
but they still haven’t quite worked around the fact that the U.S
and we still have access to the most chips and the most computing resources
and that scale still really matters,” said Liza Tobin
the managing director at the geopolitical risk advisory firm Garnaut Global
who previously served as the China director for the National Security Council under both the Biden and Trump administrations
“The demands of scaling and AI just keep going up and up
People stand in front of a stealth combat drone on display at an exhibition entitled “Forging Ahead in the New Era” in Beijing on Oct
There is still debate about how significantly AI could supercharge China’s military capabilities. The opacity of the People’s Liberation Army has made it hard for researchers to assess China’s progress and plans. Experts describe a wide range of concerns
ranging from the more mundane—including AI models being applied to increase supply-chain efficiency for ammunition and other battlefield resources—to the more nightmarish
such as AI being used to control vast swarms of drones in an invasion of Taiwan
Due to China’s military-civil fusion policy
which calls for harnessing cutting-edge commercial technologies to strengthen the military
controls say that it is necessary for the United States to continue targeting the flow of advanced chips to China as a whole
“Slowing down China’s military modernization is so important that we should take some risks and incur some costs
especially in those areas where China might be using our capabilities … particularly these high-end chips,” said Jacob Stokes
the deputy director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security
But another camp argues that the costs are too high—especially considering that the policy will likely only buy the United States a limited amount of time
The most visible cost is the hit to corporations’ bottom lines. Nvidia, with a market capitalization not far behind the United Kingdom’s GDP, certainly isn’t the most sympathetic victim, and some AI scholars have argued that soaring demand for the company’s chips in Western nations means that it can easily compensate for the lost revenue from the China market
But others warn that Washington’s restrictions will eventually come at a cost for U.S. companies, which will be increasingly cut out of the Chinese market as its ecosystem becomes more independent. If U.S. companies do see an overall hit to their revenue, that could reduce their research and development budgets and cause them to lose ground to Chinese competitors over time
“The restrictions on the H20 are a particularly egregious example of the ‘small gain
hardware companies and China,” said Paul Triolo
a partner at the advisory firm DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group who leads the firm’s technology practice
focus on restrictions is undermining further safety talks
“The international discussion on this is very
it is impossible for the two countries to talk about this at the moment,” Xiao said
“We now rely on each country to be self-disciplined
Even for those who support continued restrictions
Washington’s lack of plan for a future of AI parity with China is a concern
“I think clearly on net it is good to restrict the supply” of chips in the near term
the United States also needs to “plan ahead for a scenario where we’ll have to eventually work together on shared safety and security standards and prepare for the kind of military and other consequences of China making these advances in AI
But delaying is not a long-term solution.”
the Trump team has indicated that those discussions are not a priority
“The AI future is not going to be won by hand-wringing about safety,” U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said in a speech at the AI Action Summit in Paris in February
The next big test for the United States’ ambitions to outpace China will be the extent to which it can bring the rest of the world—particularly traditional U.S
The imminent challenge for Trump on that front is finalizing another Biden holdover. The Biden administration pushed its “Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion” out the door a week before Trump’s return to the White House
more commonly known as the AI diffusion rule
divides countries into three tiers of access to advanced U.S
while the bottom tier includes roughly two dozen arms-embargoed adversaries such as China
Most other (more than 150) countries are in the second tier
which will be subject to strict licensing requirements for advanced chips and software parameters critical to developing AI models and data centers
The Trump administration has thus far provided few windows into its thinking, with the closest and most recent coming during a confirmation hearing for Jeffrey Kessler
the Commerce Department’s new undersecretary for industry and security
who will oversee export control implementation
Kessler described the AI diffusion rule as “very complex and bureaucratic,” adding that it was “one of the things I would like to review” once confirmed
“The identification of the problem was largely correct
but I am not sure this is the right solution,” he said
That Trump instinct to try to simplify policy (the administration is reportedly considering scrapping the country tiers altogether) as much as possible could run counter to the president’s broader China containment strategy
This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage of the Trump administration. Follow along here
Rishi Iyengar is a reporter at Foreign Policy. X: @Iyengarish
Lili Pike is a reporter at Foreign Policy. X: @lili_pike
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2025 at 6:45 AM EDTBookmarkSaveLock This article is for subscribers only.President Xi Jinping’s government is showing signs of increased sophistication when it comes to geo-economic strategy
In an effort to avoid isolation by the White House in the global trading system
SHANGHAI — China says it is "assessing the situation" after what it says have been multiple overtures from the United States seeking trade talks
a potential sign that the two sides may be inching closer to a breakthrough
In a statement
China's Commerce Ministry indicated that the Trump administration's tariffs stand in the way
it must show sincerity and be prepared to correct its erroneous actions and cancel its unilateral tariff increases," it said
Chinese imports into the U.S. now face a crippling 145% tariff, after Washington and Beijing engaged in tit-for-tat tariff increases last month. With few exceptions, U.S. goods flowing into China are subject to tariffs of 125%
port officials and recent government statistics all suggest that trade in both directions is slowing sharply as a result
Neither side appears willing to be seen giving ground
Trump and administration officials have said they believe China wants to talk and that tariffs will eventually be reduced
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said China wants to reach "some sort of short-term accommodation."
"The Chinese are reaching out. They want to meet. They want to talk," he said, according to a transcript from the State Department
Trump has said at times in recent days that talks were already underway
"China's position on the issue has been consistent: If it's a fight
the door is open," the commerce ministry said in a statement
if the United States side does not rectify its erroneous unilateral tariff measures
it will show that the United States side is totally insincere and will further undermine mutual trust between the two sides," the ministry added
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We’ve played spectator to this spectacle before. In 2010, after a maritime clash, China halted rare earth exports to Japan, triggering a scramble to build alternative supply chains. Tokyo poured resources into recycling, new mining, and material substitution.
Yet even with deep technical expertise, a stake in Malaysia’s rare earth producer Lynas, and China’s reliance on Japanese industry for advanced rare earth components, Japan could not break free from Chinese supply—and they had substantially more leverage then than the U.S. has now. China relied on imports of Japanese components made from rare earth.
Japan learned a simple truth the hard way: China had built an unassailable lead by producing cheap, high-quality supply at scale. Replicating that capacity would require decades of work and material produced outside China would always cost more.
Still, China’s dominance wasn’t inevitable; it resulted from three decades of dedicated industrial policy and strategic commitment. More than 30 years ago, China imported rare earth processing capabilities developed in the U.S. and Europe. Initially, Chinese firms struggled to match Western efficiency. A trader told me he once saw bits of blue plastic mixed into piles of mineral concentrate—the shovelers had gone too deep and scraped up pieces of the tarp beneath, contaminating the batch.
Through sustained experimentation and incremental refinement, Chinese firms mastered techniques no textbook could teach—the precise dance of acids, heat, and timing that transforms raw rock into high-performance material. They then adapted those techniques to local realities.
For example, they pioneered hydrochloric acid-based extraction methods compatible with low-cost infrastructure like polyvinyl chloride, or PVC, and fiberglass, avoiding the need for expensive stainless steel used in Western setups. And when key international rare earth magnet patents expired, they rapidly scaled magnet production—having already studied or licensed the technologies through government-backed institutes.
The goal wasn’t wealth from the rare earths themselves. After all, the rare earth market is only slightly larger than that of vegan cheese or tonic water; negligible compared to China’s gross domestic product. Instead China saw these materials as foundational to its high-tech ambitions—from EVs and wind turbines, to missile guidance systems and MRIs. So, it invested tremendous time and capital first in domestic supply, then in capturing global flows.
Their material advantage was a boost for Chinese manufacturing—not only was China producing the materials, it was increasingly consuming them. Co-locating processing facilities near end-use customers allowed quicker iteration and tighter feedback, speeding up product design. These are advantages that only proximity can deliver. Before long, China dominated not just rare earth production, but also magnet making and other downstream industries built on the rare earth foundation.
At the same time, the West saw metal making as a dirty industry, ripe for outsourcing. Many rare earth facilities produce a tremendous amount of waste in addition to radioactive elements. Mining was a hard sell to local communities. Many countries legislated heavily to restrict them. It didn’t matter that these resources would power a green society or the next generation of weaponry. We ended up gutting the industry.
The U.S. once spoke the language of mining and metallurgy. Now we can barely understand it. It’s like a child of immigrants who never learned their parents’ language—because it was never passed down.
China, meanwhile, speaks this language fluently—helped by nearly 40 universities specializing in extractive metallurgy and another 40 in mineral processing. In the U.S., that number is zero.
They’re not just the biggest player in the market—they are the market.
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The steering wheel on an Inceptio Technology truck in China
Bloomberg’s newsletter on the future of the auto world
After almost 10 hours driving a 31-ton rig filled with courier parcels
YTO Express Group driver Fu Tingfeng showed no signs of exhaustion
Ryan Chan is a Newsweek reporter based in Hong Kong, where he previously had over a decade of experience at a local newspaper, covering China and current events around the world. His focus is on security and defense issues in the Western Pacific region. He is a graduate of Hong Kong Baptist University. You can get in touch with Ryan by emailing r.chan@newsweek.com
China and Japan have traded accusations of airspace violations near a group of islets in the contested East China Sea
currently administered by the United States treaty ally
Tokyo severely protested China against infringement of its sovereignty, while Beijing urged Japan to cease "illegal activities" around the islands
reaffirmed that the 1960 security treaty signed with Japan applies to the disputed Senkaku Islands
The treaty declares that an attack against either side in the territories under Japan's administration "would be dangerous to its own peace and safety" and declares that the U.S
and Japan "would act to meet the common danger in accordance with [Japan's] constitutional provisions and processes."
The Japanese Defense Ministry reported that a Chinese helicopter took off from one of four Chinese coast guard ships that had entered the 12-nautical-mile Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands and intruded into Japan's sovereign airspace on Saturday
The Japanese air force scrambled two fighter jets
with Japanese patrol ships warning the Chinese vessels to leave the territorial waters
The Chinese coast guard ships were later spotted retreating to the islands' contiguous zone that extends 24 nautical miles from the coastline
the China Coast Guard said a Japanese civilian aircraft had illegally entered Chinese airspace over the islands
which were conducting "a routine patrol," to deploy a helicopter to issue a warning and drive the aircraft away
the aircraft in question was piloted by what it called "Japanese right-wing extremists." Japan's Kyodo News reported that the country's defense ministry was investigating a possible connection between the incident and a small civilian aircraft that was flying in the area at the time
The China Coast Guard claimed that the patrol around the Senkaku Islands was carried out in accordance with the law, referring to the Coast Guard Law that was introduced in 2021
which gives permission to fire on foreign vessels within territorial waters claimed by Beijing
the Chinese Defense Ministry reiterated that it was "legitimate and legal" for its coast guard to safeguard the country's territorial sovereignty
demanding Japan restrain its citizens from conducting "provocative acts."
Japan's foreign ministry summoned Zhao Baogang
the acting Deputy Chief of Mission of the Chinese Embassy
lodged a solemn representation with Takehiro Funakoshi
said: "The China Coast Guard will continue to conduct rights protection and law enforcement operations in the waters and airspace of [the Diaoyu Islands] to firmly safeguard China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests."
The Chinese Embassy in Japan said: "The Chinese side calls on the Japanese side to recognize the seriousness of the situation and take concrete measures to prevent the recurrence of similar incidents…If Japan takes new provocative moves
China will resolutely counteract them and firmly safeguard national sovereignty and maritime rights and interests."
The Japanese Defense White Paper 2024 said: "China has been rapidly building up military capabilities while intensifying its activities in the East China Sea
where the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands are
The U.S.-Japan joint leaders' statement on February 7 read: "The two leaders reaffirmed that Article V of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security applies to the Senkaku Islands
and reiterated their strong opposition to any action that seeks to undermine Japan's longstanding and peaceful administration of the Senkaku Islands."
China is likely to continue it coast guard patrols around the Senkaku Islands
would support its ally in stepping up responses to protect the islands
CCTV. “China responded to the US's repeated proactive messages hoping to talk: We are evaluating.”
Bloomberg. “Trump Floats Cutting China Tariffs ‘Substantially’ in Trade Deal.”
CNBC. “China insists no tariff talks underway with Trump and Xi or top aides, despite U.S. claims.”
Defense reporter at the Global Times covering weapons and military development
Some of the main warplanes participating in the China-Egypt "Eagles of Civilization 2025" joint air force exercise form formation and fly over the Pyramids at very low altitudes in Cairo
Photo: Courtesy of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force
was recently commissioned into the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy ..
stealthy and powerful missile boat of the Chinese People’s Liberation ..
a spokesperson for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command
There is an opportunity for Britain in areas such as green finance
though it needs to keep clear red lines over security
The US is urging countries to agree new trade deals. The perceived risk is a bipolar world, where countries have to choose between the US and China. What are the implications for the UK?
In all likelihood this choice is avoidable. The global economy is so interconnected, fragmentation is more likely than a bipolar world.
Supply chains are complex, and involve many countries. Even as nations look to onshore supply chains, achieving this will be a lengthy and expensive challenge.
Bank for International Settlements data shows global cross-border lending is $38tn (£29tn)
with foreign banks’ credit to China at $826bn
about one-quarter of the US national debt is held by foreigners
It is not just economic and financial ties
Geopolitics suggests many countries will adopt a non-aligned approach
The government’s priority is economic growth
national security decisions are indivisible from economic prosperity
It is not feasible for the UK to decouple from China given it is the world’s second largest economy
Western Europe will remain the world’s slow growth region for the foreseeable future
while the Indo-Pacific will be the fastest
The government’s approach to China is to cooperate
Just as critics of deeper ties have to acknowledge the upside economic potential
there is a need to be cognisant of national security concerns
This might entail a clear red line in the future relationship
This would allow companies to plan ahead and reflects the challenge of calibrating the tension between economic and security issues
On one side of this line should be sensitive areas where the UK aligns with the US
The other side of the red line should be areas to be encouraged such as trade
There should be opportunities to sell far more UK services in to China’s growing consumer market
China is Britain’s fifth largest trading partner
but its cumulative foreign direct investment into the UK is low
being just 0.2% of the total stock from all countries
One area where greater cooperation is possible is in financial services
China hosted the 11th UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue
The City was looking for greater financial connectivity between the two countries
across a range of areas such as dual listings
and greater access of UK-based asset managers and insurance firms into the Chinese market
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On the same day that Donald Trump announced his tariff policy
China issued in London its first offshore yuan-denominated sovereign green bond
Given subsequent events it has led to talk in the City as to how much potential there might be for London to establish itself as the global centre for green finance
Investor appetite in the UK and globally is high
but there is a shortage of green assets in which to invest
Do current events present an opportunity to cement the City’s position as the world’s second largest financial centre
Global investors are turning away from the US as a reliable partner and a safe haven
but the bigger issue is who gains in where the money finds a home and is managed
Perceived stability may be the UK’s magnet
but it would probably require smarter regulation and tweaks on tax policy to seize the moment
There is now an opportunity in a multi-polar world to make the UK a more attractive location for global investors to do business in and from
as it is less a case of the UK becoming dependent upon China and more of diversifying
Dr Gerard Lyons is chief economic strategist at Netwealth and the senior independent director on the board of the Bank of China (UK)
BREAKING: Berkshire Shares Slide On News Of Buffett Exit
China stocks are rebounding once again amid hopes that a fierce U.S
though Trump tariffs remain extremely high
Several Chinese stocks that trade in the U.S
Tesla (TSLA) rivals BYD (BYDDF) and Xiaomi (XIACY)
internet giants Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (TCEHY)
as well as fintech Qifu Technology (QFIN) are all near buy points.…
Trade war perils are swirling around ocean shippers and the ports that serve them
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At the National Palace Museum in Taipei guides tell visitors that the collection of imperial treasures
taken from the mainland when the defeated Nationalist regime fled to Taiwan in 1949
makes it one of the safest places on the island
“China covets our collections so they would never bombard this place,” says one
This article appeared in the Briefing section of the print edition under the headline “A darker shade of grey zone”
Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents
Taiwanese are growing more doubtful that they can fend off their hostile neighbour
As other countries age, they will need African youth
Their huge endowments are not easy to cash in
The Ivy League sees little point in fighting the federal government in court
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