Lithuania is strengthening its military presence along the Suwałki Gap a weak spot in Europe that could face a Russian threat Working with Poland, the country plans to improve important roads and border defenses. These upgrades aim to secure a key connection between Western Europe and the Baltic states by 2028 The Suwałki Gap is a 100-kilometer stretch of land between Poland and Lithuania It lies between Russia’s Kaliningrad region and Belarus This gap is the only land route that connects NATO’s Baltic countries to the rest of the alliance Military experts see it as a likely target if Russia attacks the EU or NATO “This corridor is critical to us from a security and defense perspective,” said Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Tomas Godliauskas “They’ve always been part of our civil-military planning as key ground routes for allied support during a crisis.” Two main roads run through the Suwałki Gap which links Kaunas in Lithuania to Warsaw in Poland Lithuania and Poland now plan to upgrade the Vilnius–Augustów road so it can handle both civilian and military traffic during emergencies “It’s just one more option to ensure better logistics in times of need,” Godliauskas explained Via Baltica and the high-speed Rail Baltica are already key routes for moving military forces Improving the Vilnius–Augustów road will give NATO more options for moving troops and gear and for carrying out evacuations if needed Lithuania and Poland plan to rebuild 113 kilometers of road and repair eight bridges as part of their joint project Lithuania’s Deputy Transport Minister Roderikas Žiobakas said that they aim to finish by 2028 Godliauskas admitted that the deadline could slip but added that common security goals and Poland’s resources may help keep things on schedule (Image courtesy of Jon Worth via Wikimedia Commons) Lithuania is also looking at ways to strengthen border security near Kaliningrad and Belarus Plans include adding road checkpoints and concrete barriers to slow down enemy forces if a conflict breaks out “We’re discussing how to address GPS spoofing and jamming from Russia which is already affecting our civil aviation and navigation systems,” Godliauskas said While the project supports EU and NATO defense goals it is not part of any official programs from either group Lithuania and Poland are funding it through a direct agreement Lithuania will cover the cost of upgrades on its side of the border and has asked Poland to handle the work on its side of the Augustów road “We’ll be lobbying the EU — together with Poland and Latvia — to ensure these projects are prioritized” in the bloc’s upcoming budget Lithuania’s efforts to strengthen its borders and improve military roads send a clear message: more security and more oversight As NATO increases its presence in the Suwałki Gap travelers crossing this key route between the Baltics and the rest of the EU may face stricter checks and short delays especially during military drills or times of tension but land crossings between Lithuania and Poland will likely see more surveillance These changes could support the European Union’s upcoming European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) ETIAS will require non-EU travelers to get electronic approval before entering Schengen countries Lithuania’s upgrades—like dual-use checkpoints and better border technology—could help manage this new system by improving how travelers are screened and tracked especially those coming from Belarus or Russia—legally or not—may find fewer easy paths across the border crossing without permission will become riskier and more difficult this could push migration toward less-protected parts of the EU putting more pressure on other border countries Lithuania’s investment in physical infrastructure does more than strengthen its defense—it also changes how borders are seen today immigration and national security are becoming more connected By upgrading roads and adding military-level surveillance Lithuania is making it clear: managing borders is not just about controlling who enters This view could shape how other countries handle asylum Governments might use security concerns to justify stricter rules or collecting more personal data like fingerprints and facial scans The systems being built now—both physical and digital—are setting the tone for future borders: stronger Lithuania’s actions support growing demands for shared funding and coordinated control of outer borders As Estonia and Poland join Lithuania in pushing for this support the EU may face pressure to treat immigration more as a security issue This could make it harder to build more welcoming and unified systems for newcomers especially in countries still divided over past migration challenges (Image courtesy of jo.sau via Wikimedia Commons) Lithuania’s effort to upgrade its military infrastructure sends a clear message to both its allies and rivals By making the Suwałki Gap easier to defend and move through Lithuania strengthens NATO’s northeastern border and shows it’s ready to face threats from Russia and Belarus—including cyber attacks and other non-traditional tactics They show the Baltic states’ commitment to staying strong and prepared Lithuania’s approach could guide how other European countries protect their borders preparing for conflict is part of how the region works toward peace Terms of Use|Privacy Policy images or other representation of this site is prohibited and copyright violators will be pursued legally to the full extent of the law Lithuania is set to upgrade and fortify a second route through the Suwałki Gap — a crucial choke point along the border with Poland that's seen as one of likeliest areas for any future Russian attack on the European Union and NATO “These roads [are] critical to us from a security and defense perspective,” Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Tomas Godliauskas told POLITICO in a telephone interview The Suwałki Gap is a sparsely populated 100-kilometer-wide stretch of forested flat land connecting Poland and Lithuania and bordered by Kremlin ally Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave It's considered one of NATO’s most vulnerable points serving as a vital land corridor linking the Baltic states to the rest of the alliance Lithuania has currently two main roads crossing the gap: one running from Kaunas in Lithuania to Warsaw — part of the Via Baltica military corridor — and the ordinary route between the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius and the Polish city of Augustów Lithuania is now moving to expand its military infrastructure network beyond Via Baltica — which is the country’s primary route for allied reinforcements — by upgrading the Vilnius-Augustów road to dual-use standards for both civilian and military needs Via Baltica and the Rail Baltica line — a project to build a high-speed rail link from the Baltics to Poland — currently serve as the primary channels for military mobility and support potential civilian evacuations in the event of war “It's just one more option to ensure better logistics in times of need,” Godliauskas said The effort is part of a broader European push to invest in dual-use infrastructure — projects designed to meet both civilian and military needs. Countries such as Spain, Belgium and Slovakia are pursuing similar upgrades. EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has said that the bloc will need to spend at least €70 billion to urgently adapt its rail the Suwałki project may also include new border security measures there are talks about new protections along the borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus,” Godliauskas said mentioning discussions around placing counter-mobility elements near or on borders such as road control points and blocking systems like cement barriers Godliauskas also said that ensuring freedom of movement for troops and goods along the two roads is a priority and added that such border protection operations are likely to be closely monitored by Russia as "sensitive and vital" information He also added that security measures extend beyond the physical domain which is already affecting our civil aviation and navigation systems.” The full scope of the project includes reconstructing 113 kilometers of road and renovating eight bridges Lithuania’s Deputy Transport Minister Roderikas Žiobakas told POLITICO recently that the work is expected to be completed by 2028 “But we hope that the geopolitical situation our interest and Poland's capabilities will allow us to reach that timeline.” Lithuania hopes to secure EU funding for the project and Latvia — to ensure these projects are prioritized" in the bloc's next multiyear budget Although aligned with EU and NATO military mobility goals the road project is not officially part of either organization’s programs it is being funded as a bilateral initiative between the Polish and Lithuanian transport and defense ministries “We’ll invest in the section up to the Lithuanian border and we’re asking Poland to upgrade their side of the Augustów road to meet military mobility standards,” Godliauskas said Polish officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment Europe has built its war-fighting plans on speeding American reinforcements to the front lines The prospect of that not happening is throwing military mobility plans into disarray Lithuania aims to strengthen the strategically significant 65-kilometer (40 mile) corridor known as the Suwałki Gap, the corridor that connects the Baltic States with Poland and separates Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave from Belarus, said Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Tomas Godliauskas in an interview with Politico Military analysts view the Suwałki Gap as a potential target for a Russian strike in the event of a possible conflict between the Kremlin and NATO countries Vilnius plans to modernize and strengthen its defense in this land passage “These roads [are] critical to us from a security and defense perspective They’ve always been part of our civil-military planning as key ground routes for allied support during a crisis,” said Godliauskas The new security measures will include protecting against Russian attempts to jam GPS signals upgrading 113 kilometers (70 miles) of roads In March 2024, Belarus’s self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, threatened a possible attack on the Suwałki Gap Concerns about the security of the corridor have been raised by Lithuania and Poland even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine Efforts to strengthen the area began as early as 2019 [email protected] [email protected] FB: @uwcongress This issue is preventing our website from loading properly. Please review the following troubleshooting tips or contact us at [email protected] By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us Create an FP account to save articles to read later ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN Downloadable PDFs are a benefit of an FP subscription This article is an Insider exclusive Contact us at [email protected] to learn about upgrade options unlocking the ability to gift this article the type of people who work hard to understand difficult topics and are rewarded for their intellectual rigor with a firm and fundamental comprehension of complex situations (This is a compliment.) And that’s precisely why I’m recommending the splendid new spy series The Eastern Gate and I am not ashamed to admit that for five-and-a-half of those episodes my primary reaction was what the hell is going on?” But by the end every puzzle piece snapped together perfectly seven years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and with “the threat of war real again.” The Polish government is worried specifically about the Suwalki Gap a strip of land on its northeastern border with Lithuania Belarus is to the east of this small passage and Russia—in the form of the isolated Kaliningrad Oblast—is to its west and prompted me to hit pause and poke around on Google Earth on several occasions During the Cold War, the Suwalki Gap wasn’t exactly a center of thrilling geopolitical action. But with Poland and Lithuania now a part of NATO, and Russia (with its fellow traveler Belarus) increasingly bellicose, to put it mildly, one can easily see how it could become a choke point, and critical to world security As most watch and fret over news developments in the region and hope for cooler heads Matuszynski has led a creative team to imagine all the deadly and dazzling maneuvers that could very well be happening in the area The Eastern Gate’s realism and high stakes are much of what makes it so gripping but its creators also know how to put on a good show In the very first episode we enter a palatial Kaliningrad estate on the night of a grand ball its halls choked with blustering bald generals and slinky women in sparkly dresses a Polish undercover agent posing as the Latvian date of a dopey playboy whose mother is a celebrated Russian nuclear physicist She’s there to swap a pair of mom’s enormous glasses with an identical but bugged pair She comes close to achieving this with no hiccups—but if she did we wouldn’t get a chance to witness her inordinate fighting skills or watch her refuse to blow her cover by calling in the cavalry The Kaliningrad operation is a pyrrhic victory time for a temporary respite with her sister and nephew somewhere in the countryside while others in the agency look toward their next adventure it is believed that there is a mole in the Polish embassy in Minsk feeding information to the Russians Ewa’s partner (and lover) Skiner (Karol Pochec) heads to the not particularly glamorous city but he soon falls into the clutches of Belarussian agents (If you can make it past this early interrogation scene you can handle the rest of the violence in this series.) Ewa All she knows is that anyone she meets could be the one selling her country out These side plots churn along through the lens of whatever the Polish version of weltschmerz The videos edited by idealistic Kai show how Poland’s increasing reluctance to maintain open borders is harming desperate people caught up in the currents of history But an offhand comment from one of the good guys at Warsaw HQ throws some red meat to any xenophobes who may be watching there are Russians and terrorists and plenty of “bad actors” using the surge of refugees as cover to sneak into the country slinking around Minsk trying to sniff out the mole She’s supposed to stay put at the consulate and her small apartment (The Minsk tourism board won’t be the biggest fan of this show.) Of course all it takes is a tweak to her hairstyle and a new outfit Things heat up after a peculiar terrorist bombing which at first looks like the work of Polish nationalist zealots but Ewa pieces together is actually a sneaky Belarussian (and therefore Russian) false flag operation This is just the beginning of a series of crosses like spooks passing information to their assets inside an old church like the use of Twitter with its zany avatars to signal assets in the field (What did Cookie Monster ever do to get involved in all this?) Gora in a scene from The Eastern Gate.Max it’s fascinating to watch its employees’ best practices for security go into effect While there is plenty of spy craft in the show and Ewa could certainly hold her own against Jason Bourne and working at the Minsk office is far from a luxury assignment leading one diplomat to import his own and causing his colleagues to mock him a bit.) When the time comes to circle the wagons Other points of fascination stem simply from the geography Kaliningrad is an important element to the story and there are some good establishing shots of the Russian oblast Ever since I was a dorky kid who liked to stare at maps I’ve had a fondness for corners of the political world that seem to be doing their own thing (Where is the series about Eswatini—formerly Swaziland—and Lesotho and when you sit down to watch something like The Eastern Gate you realize how many plot-driven thrillers default to London or Washington It’s nice to get a new setting for a change you need to take an extra step when watching the series on Max The streamer defaults to a dubbed version; Russian is subtitled but the original Polish lines are in English It took me a few minutes to realize this before I went into the settings to revert to the original languages Though dubbing techniques have certainly advanced since I first watched Bruce Lee movies on VHS voice-over will always come off as more awkward than watching actors speaking their native tongue The Eastern Gate has a very satisfying ending I see where this could go if they want to continue.” Luckily that second season has already been ordered I will not tell you which of the actors are not listed to return as this would suggest which of the side characters are no longer breathing after the first season’s wild conclusion that with Lena Gora’s Ewa defending against enemies foreign and domestic This post appeared in the FP Weekend newsletter, a weekly showcase of book reviews, deep dives, and features. 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All rights reserved 2025 9:14 PM8 min readLithuanian Army reservists train at a future German troop site near Rudninkai by Yuliia Taradiuk, Andrea JanutaThroughout Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine repeated and escalating warnings of the potential for a wider war have only raised fears in the Baltic states that they could be next in the crosshairs of the Kremlin Talk about a potential Russian invasion is "very common at parties, gatherings, lunch breaks, water cooler talk," Gabija Stasiukyne, a 32-year-old fintech professional living in Vilnius, Lithuania The conversation inevitably turns in the direction of — what are you going to do?" Lithuania's government is also taking the threat seriously — the country reinstated conscription in 2015, and Vilnius in January committed to spending between 5% and 6% of its GDP on defense annually until at least 2030 "Increasing our military capabilities and strengthening alliances is of utmost importance," Lithuania's Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene told the Kyiv Independent in written response but we are reinventing our defense in order to be ready to fight tonight For Lithuania and the Baltic states collectively Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 once again shined a spotlight on a long history of Moscow's imperialist ambitions "My great-grandfather was deported (by the Soviets during World War II) to Siberia because he was a teacher an intelligent man," Emilija Sikorskyite a 23-year-old English and French language teacher living in Vilnius," told the Kyiv Independent Lithuania was the first Soviet republic to proclaim independence in 1990, one year before Ukraine, and joined NATO in 2004 providing the country with the security of the military alliance's collective defense clause in the event of Russian aggression But the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and his increasingly hostile attitude to Europe and Ukraine have left many Lithuanians fearing that being a member of NATO is not the security guarantee it once was A razor wire fence lines the Polish-Lithuanian border near Kaliningrad in Wisztyniec (Sergei Gapon/AFP via Getty Images)Ignas Zalieckas a Lithuanian cultural journalist living in Germany told the Kyiv Independent that the now infamous Oval Office showdown between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky caused "total panic" among his friends and family back home "Everybody was thinking that NATO is kind of gone," he said Western leaders and intelligence agencies have warned of a potential large-scale war in Europe within the next five years citing Russia's increasingly aggressive posture Lithuania's geography puts it directly in the firing line The country shares an eastern border with Russia's closest ally from whose territory Moscow's failed attempt to take Kyiv was launched At their closest point, a mere 40 kilometers separates Kaliningrad and Belarus along a narrow piece of land called the Suwalki Gap which closely tracks the Poland-Lithuania border on the Polish side (Lisa Kukharska/The Kyiv Independent)In the event of a war between NATO and Russia Russian and Belarusian forces linking up across the Suwalki Gap would cut off the only land route to all three Baltic states "It's understandable that the Lithuanian government is worried about this," Dr. Stephen Hall, lecturer in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath, told the Kyiv Independent "The Baltics have a long history of being occupied by other foreign forces and a relatively short history of being independent." In the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine and a White House washing its hands of European security talk of an imminent Russian invasion in Lithuania has now gone into overdrive a master's student and the head of communication at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University told the Kyiv Independent that "all the political science and international relations experts talk about the possibility of war every day." She said that she had heard some experts describe war as “inevitable,” saying that joint Russian and Belarusian military exercises scheduled for September 2025, could serve as a pretext for the build up of a Russian invasion force — just as they did before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Turauskaite says the unpredictable nature of Trump is adding to anxiety in the country we don’t know what to expect," she said Lithuania has been one of Kyiv's staunchest allies — in Vilnius public buses display their routes along with the phrase "Vilnius loves Ukraine," while the number of Ukrainian flags fluttering from government buildings and private balconies at times seems to compare to that of Lithuania’s tricolor flag This has been matched by consistent military aid but while the weapons and aid have flowed to Ukraine the war has had a significant impact on the attitudes and priorities of those back home conducts three-day survival courses for ninth-graders which were implemented after Russia's full-scale invasion began "I joined the military in 2022 or 2023 because my whole life I knew that I would go to fight if necessary," he told the Kyiv Independent "And when I saw what happened in Ukraine I thought that I should be prepared." People attend a demonstration marking the third anniversary of Russia's war on Ukraine in Vilnius (Yauhen Yerchak/Anadolu via Getty Images)Civilian security excursions in Vilnius (Teodoras Grigaliūnas / Lithuanian Res Cross)"At first it wasn’t a very popular topic and it was sort of hard to get people involved," he told the Kyiv Independent "But I do notice a change, a spike in people's interest, especially after the Zelensky and Trump clash," he added Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has provided a blueprint of sorts for what Lithuanians could expect in the event of a worst-case scenario as well as the motivation to prepare as best as is possible A thyroid cancer diagnosis prevented Aivaras a 32-year-old freelance film and TV location manager from following his younger brother into the Lithuanian military so instead he registered for a new civil role created last year that will enforce curfews and protect infrastructure if martial law is enacted in the event of war "I understood that if shit hits the fan you need to be prepared and know what you are doing," he told the Kyiv Independent requesting not to print his last name due to fears that invading Russian forces would exact revenge on those known to have signed up to resist Aivaras believes war in Lithuania is likely in the next two to five years — potentially sooner "I think that we are a little bit too relaxed and we think that somebody else will come and save us." or those unable to sign up for the military or civil defense roles more pressing questions with less clear answers are front and center Russia's full-scale invasion prompted a wave of refugees to head west away from the fighting but for Lithuania — only slightly larger than the U.S state of West Virginia — this isn't a viable option prompting many to plan where in the country would be the safest place to be Zalieckas has already discussed evacuation plans with his family but his mother's job as a Supreme Court judge and his grandparents' health issues mean it's unlikely that they'll be able to leave the country an "insanely militarized" area close to a NATO air base "There's a dual discussion," he says "Is it the least safe place to be or the most safe but there are also air defense systems there." have packed a few emergency bags with basic necessities and supplies for their two young children in case they have to flee They've been informed by special guides on what to do in case of an emergency that were updated and reprinted after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine Tiger attack helicopters fly near a German Army Puma infantry fighting vehicle during the NATO Quadriga exercise in Pabrade (Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg via Getty Images)But beyond packing grab bags and cutting back on expenditures so they have some emergency cash on hand planning for a potential war with no definitive timeline or idea of what it could look like is tricky because you don’t know exactly what you’re trying to be ready for," Stasiukyne said Sikorskyite, the 23-year-old English and French language teacher, studied in Kyiv just before the full-scale invasion and has visited friends in Ukraine several times during the war She said her experience of spending nights in bomb shelters and speaking to Ukrainians means she is better prepared for what might happen "A lot of Ukrainians are saying they weren't prepared at all We are trying to learn from people's mistakes," she said “Let's hope for the best and be ready for the worst.” The data suggest thousands of Russian troops and naval units are stationed roughly 250 km east of Finland’s capital Experts warn that Moscow’s maneuvers could be aimed at seizing Poland’s 65-kilometer land corridor with Lithuania Control of this narrow stretch—bordered by Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave and Belarus—would significantly undermine NATO’s ability to reinforce the Baltic states by land leaving maritime routes as the only option for supplies and troop movements Defense analysts consider the Suwałki Gap one of the alliance’s most vulnerable spots Any Russian assault could isolate Lithuania making logistical support difficult and exposing supply lines to attacks a Baltic defense specialist at the OECD and Estonia’s National Defence College told Onet that “Russia still wants to control the Suwałki Gap which would mean an attack on NATO territory.” Russia has allocated $462 billion—about one-third of its total budget—to defense expenditures NATO has reportedly devised a new defensive strategy including a rapid-reaction force of 300,000 troops ready to deploy within 30 days Source: Onet Lithuania is intensifying efforts to secure its borders with a major upgrade of key infrastructure along the Suwałki Gap a vital stretch of land linking Poland and Lithuania is seen as one of the most likely locations for any future Russian assault on NATO and the European Union making it a critical point for military defence “These roads [are] critical to us from a security and defence perspective,” said Tomas Godliauskas, Lithuania's Deputy Defence Minister, in a telephone interview with POLITICO forested region bordered by Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus It represents one of NATO's most vulnerable corridors linking the Baltic states to the rest of the alliance Lithuania currently has two main routes crossing the gap: one from Kaunas to Warsaw a part of the Via Baltica military corridor and another between Vilnius and Augustów in Poland Lithuania is working with Poland to expand its military infrastructure particularly by upgrading the Vilnius-Augustów road to dual-use standards This will allow both civilian and military traffic to flow more efficiently in times of conflict which connects the Baltic States to Poland already serve as primary military mobility routes the upgrade will provide additional options for troop movement This initiative is part of a larger European effort to invest in dual-use infrastructure projects that cater to both civilian and military needs According to EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius the EU will need to invest at least €70 billion to adapt its transport networks for both military and civilian use Lithuania is considering new border security measures in the Suwałki Gap region there are talks about new protections along the borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus,” Godliauskas stated The discussions include installing counter-mobility measures such as road control points and cement barriers designed to hinder any hostile movement “Ensuring freedom of movement for troops and goods along these roads is a priority,” he added acknowledging that Russia is likely to view such developments as sensitive The broader project includes the reconstruction of 113 kilometres of road and the renovation of eight bridges Deputy Transport Minister Roderikas Žiobakas indicated that the project is expected to be completed by 2028 although Godliauskas remained more cautious expressing hope that geopolitical factors and Poland’s capabilities would allow for the timeline to be met Lithuania plans to secure EU funding for the project and will work with Poland and Latvia to prioritise the initiative in the EU’s upcoming multi-year budget the project is not officially part of NATO or EU military mobility programs It is being funded as a bilateral effort between Lithuania and Poland’s transport and defence ministries and we’re asking Poland to upgrade their side of the Augustów road to meet military mobility standards,” Godliauskas concluded The 18th edition of the festival, scheduled for July 10–12, will feature performances by nearly 40 bands from across Europe and beyond, including Swedish rock group Blues Pills and the LeBurn Maddox Band from the United States Among the biggest names are American blues-rock singer and guitarist Alastair Greene and fellow American Eric Johnson will close out the festival with a nearly two-hour concert as part of their farewell tour The event will also include a national qualifying round for the 2026 European Blues Challenge in Spain near Poland's northeastern border with Lithuania has many lakes and forests and is a popular vacation destination valued for its natural beauty Source: PAP, suwalkiblues.com, soksuwalki.eu This situation is constantly under the control of the military And we should not react to provocations in the style of 'something will happen be afraid'," Suwalki resident Hanna told Euroradio It was here, according to a Bild insider report published earlier this year, that Russia's attack on Poland was to begin The article was based on secret documents from the German Ministry of Defense there would be an "artificially created border conflict" and "riots with numerous victims." Russia would then effectively "repeat the 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine on NATO territory Immediately after the article was published Euroradio travelled to Suwalki to discover how the town and its residents perceived the German tabloid's prediction Now we have revisited Suwalki - it is December 2024 Are the town's residents and authorities prepared for provocation the news about the "Kremlin's plan" caused fear in the girl but she says she tries not to "feed" this fear "I prefer to do something real - create new songs with the band or somehow influence the present I cannot control military and political actions if something happens All I can do is either fight or run away," says Hanna It would seem that February's revelations about a possible attack should have triggered a wave of migration from Suwalki the opposite is happening—people and investments are coming Anna notes that the news alert has not affected the influx of tourists to the region although local entrepreneurs are confused by the constant escalation of the situation There are not many people on the streets of Suwalki "I feel the threat from the east - from Russia and Belarus But we live and work here normally," reassures Jacek Niedzwedski a Sejm member from Suwalki when asked what has changed in the town over the past year the topic of the attack on the Suwalki corridor has been appearing regularly in the Polish media for years:  "The media do what they think they have to do But the most important thing is that the Polish authorities perceive the threat from Russia as permanent Paulina emphasizes that Poland has understood the risks associated with Russia's aggressive policy toward Ukraine and NATO countries not only since 2022 but also earlier Suwalki residents are divided when it comes to preparing citizens for possible attacks Some go to town meetings where they are told what to do in case of military provocations the Polish Sejm passed a law on public protection and civil defence and local authorities should do and where people should evacuate We forgot about it because we lived in a calm time but the war in Ukraine showed that you have to think about security," says Jacek Niedzwedski Poland is actively working on improving the army's image and attracting citizens Niedzwedski notes that both men and women are now being actively recruited the Polish authorities realize that a large and effective army cannot be built on pure patriotism and I am not particularly worried about a possible military situation Poles will defend themselves actively and effectively the state invests a lot in making military service an attractive career Soldiers can count on many privileges not available to other services such as the police" (according to various estimates Poland lacks about 13 thousand police officers Our interviewee Hanna also noticed the demand to join the reserve or undergo initial training "Many of my adult students from all over Poland who were in the reserve or had nothing to do with it I know that there was an agitation for the Thero-Defense troops And I know young people and grown men who went to training My brother also goes to the shooting ranges I don't remember many people wanting to return to the military before There's this empowerment called "What can I do There's a part of it because it was and is Poland's parliament has recently approved next year's budget which envisages an increase in defence spending up to 186.6 billion zlotys (about 43 billion euros) 4.7% of the country's GDP - the highest figure among all NATO countries "We need to strengthen ourselves - a strong army We don't want to attack; we want to be able to defend ourselves in a conflict That's why we are buying new tanks and helicopters It is important that we do this not only within NATO but also within the EU," says Jacek Niedzwiedski "It is necessary to realize this and not to be intimidated A strong army within the EU structures is the most important thing for our defence." And how do the city's residents perceive the Kremlin's threats and possible attack If we have to flee - we will flee; if we have to fight - we will fight," says the interlocutor of Euroradio "We all live with the possibility of war - not only in the region because threats come from all sides," says a resident of Suwalki It is hard to say," replied another passer-by Become a journalist!Report topic! Support usDonate the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact Strolling amid the ornate 19th-century villas fountains and lakes that dot this sleepy spa town it’s easy to forget that you’re standing in Vladimir Putin’s crosshairs Nestled on Lithuania’s southeastern border Druskininkai opens onto a narrow notch of strategic territory known as the Suwałki Gap Stretching about 100 kilometers along the Lithuanian-Polish frontier between Belarus in the east and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west Western military planners warn the area would likely be one of the Russian president’s first targets were he ever to choose to escalate the war in Ukraine into a kinetic confrontation with NATO You wouldn’t know it by looking at it — and that say Eastern European officials seeking to draw attention to the Western military alliance’s vulnerabilities in the east is no stranger to either Russia or to the tumult of European history Designated an official spa for Russian civil servants by Czar Nicholas I in 1837 the town’s mineral-rich waters have drawn visitors from around Central and Eastern Europe ever since Soviet — shifted control of the region between them the resort was a favorite Soviet holiday destination it’s home to one of the world’s largest indoor snow arenas and an elaborate water park And until the war in Ukraine put it out of reach it had lost little of its allure for Russians accounted for the largest percentage of visitors That familiarity might explain why some locals are sanguine about the prospects of an invasion people will be wondering but right now that’s not really the case.” who asked that his full name not be used in order to protect his privacy said he was confident that NATO would protect Lithuania a country of 2.8 million. If it doesn’t he “would just go out of the country,” Danukas said adding that the military “wasn’t his thing.” A recent visit down a lonely road lined with pine trees to the border with Belarus just 10 kilometers from the center of town with neither soldiers nor border patrol anywhere in sight on a daylong journey across the Lithuanian side of the Suwałki corridor this reporter didn’t see even one military vehicle or soldier “The community trusts in the Lithuanian military and NATO and in their capacity to ensure safety,” the town administration said in a written statement (The mayor has been away on vacation) who commands a local company of Lithuania’s Riflemen’s Union a voluntary militia with roots stretching back more than a century said that all remained quiet on Lithuania’s eastern front so far While he said he didn’t expect Russia to try anything for as long as it had its hands full in Ukraine he added that he and his comrades were monitoring the situation in the border region calling the the Suwałki Gap Lithuania’s “Achilles heel.” “Some think there’s no point to attack us but it must be noted that this is a direct land route to Kaliningrad,” he said “If they are able to overcome Ukraine it is possible that the next blow would fall here.” The latest reminder of the tightrope Vilnius is walking with Moscow came over the weekend as Lithuania’s national railway said that in order to comply with European sanctions it would no longer permit the transit of certain goods across the country’s territory from Belarus to Kaliningrad “We consider this to be a most serious violation,” Kaliningrad’s governor, Anton Alikhanov, said in response to the move which he said would effect up to half of Russian exports to the exclave Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said he came up with the name “Suwałki Gap” minutes before a meeting with then-German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen in 2015 in an effort to raise alarm about the hole in Western defenses The worry is that in a conflict with the West Russia could sweep into the corridor simultaneously from the east and the west severing the European Union’s Baltic countries from their allies to the south “It’s a huge vulnerability because an invasion would cut off Lithuania Latvia and Estonia from the rest of NATO,” said Ilves Such a move would also result in an immediate faceoff between Moscow and NATO’s nuclear-armed members pushing the world to the brink of world-ending confrontation was a reaction to Russia’s annexation of Crimea the year before but his doomsday scenario has gained new credence in the wake of Putin’s latest invasion of Ukraine Just as Putin is trying to create a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea peninsula which is named for a prominent town on the Polish side of the border with those stationed in its de facto protectorate Belarus Russia has built a formidable military presence its Baltic fleet and tens of thousands of soldiers which has a population of nearly 1 million was German territory until after World War II The Soviet Union wrested control of the region from Germany after the war renamed it Kaliningrad and expelled the German population.)  While there’s no reason to suggest an attack is imminent the Russian leader appears to delight in keeping the West guessing what his next move will be he praised the imperial exploits of Peter the Great declaring that “a country is either a sovereign or a colony,” comments that did little to reassure the Baltics a former Russian prime minister under Putin predicting that “the Baltic states will be next” if Ukraine falls The expected NATO accession of Sweden and Finland has further raised tensions between Russia and the alliance The addition of the two Scandinavian countries might make it more difficult for Russia to sever the Baltics from the rest of the alliance but it would also turn the Baltic Sea into what some are calling a NATO lake perhaps giving Moscow even more of an incentive to build a bridge to Kaliningrad Sweden’s and Finland’s inclusion in NATO makes a Russian move “less likely but that doesn’t mean it’s unlikely,” said Linas Kojala the director of the Eastern Europe Studies Center Despite the Baltics’ strategic concerns what may be the most dangerous thing about the Suwałki Gap is its relative irrelevance A move by Russia on Poland or Lithuania would clearly trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense provision immediately pulling in all the alliance’s members — from Turkey to Bulgaria to France and the United States How eager would Washington and NATO be to risk Armageddon over a stretch of largely unpopulated farmland few of their citizens even know exists It’s exactly the kind of edge case that Putin has proved eager to test Lithuania’s 900-kilometer border with Russia and Belarus is the longest in the alliance But with an army of just 20,000 and an air force with only five planes including transport aircraft and one single-engine Cessna is ill-equipped for a Russian assault — even with help from the German-led battle group currently stationed in the country.  “The only answer to that challenge is an increased NATO presence here,” said Margiris Abukevičius “We know how Russia is obsessed with closing land corridors.” During a visit to Vilnius earlier this month German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tried to reassure his hosts of Berlin’s commitment to Baltic security but ended up sowing confusion Scholz told reporters that Berlin would move “in the direction” of stationing “a robust combat brigade” in Lithuania implying several thousand troops would be deployed saying that Germany would only move the unit’s headquarters — around 50 personnel — there while the majority of the troops would remain in Germany As NATO prepares for what many observers say will be its most important summit in decades later this month the exposure of the Baltics to Russian aggression is at the center of deliberations over whether to station more alliance troops in the region on a permanent or semi-permanent basis While the U.S.-led alliance has yet to take a final decision officials have signaled that NATO would significantly bolster forces in the Baltics and elsewhere along the EU’s eastern frontier heralding a historic shift in NATO posture and shifting the pact’s center of gravity to the east Though NATO has four 1,000-strong battle groups stationed across the region Baltic political leaders and military planners argue that much more would be needed to deter Russian aggression but you may as well call it a suicide mission,” said Ilves who served as Estonian president from 2006 to 2016 and Germany long cautioned against such a move in which the alliance agreed with Moscow not to establish permanent bases in new member states in “the current and foreseeable security environment.” Russia’s attack on Ukraine has convinced even longtime skeptics of what NATO calls “forward defense” in Eastern Europe that the time has come “I’ve changed my mind,” said Ben Hodges a retired American lieutenant general who commanded the U.S “Our good faith efforts to engage with Russia have failed.” over which Putin has recently asserted more influence the Russian military has recently used air bases and other military infrastructure to launch assaults on Ukraine.   could muster the capabilities it needs to attack the Baltics for now But he said it was essential for NATO to use this opportunity to prepare for the worst including by bolstering the Baltics’ air defenses and ensuring better integration between local forces and the rest of the alliance He said he could envision a system with a “rotating permanent presence” of NATO forces in the region Another key factor in the region’s defense is Poland which has the largest military in the region Historic disputes between Poles and Lithuanians in the Suwałki corridor over language and minority rights on both sides of the border have led to speculation that Putin could use those tensions to his advantage where he succeeded in harnessing pro-Russian sentiment to unleash a separatist movement Cross-border cooperation between the Polish and Lithuanian militaries has never been closer “We see what the Russians are doing in Ukraine stressing that Poland was prepared to honor its alliance obligations towards Lithuania if Russia moves in Jurgis Vedrickas contributed reporting to this article CA Immo exits non-core market Serbia with the sale of the 19,600 sqm office building Sava Business Center in Belgrade Both the sales price and the buyer are subject to confidentiality As the PBSA sector finally takes off in Poland it is now increasingly attracting international operators and investors Eurobuild CEE spoke to Xior's investment manager about why it has such confidence in the Polish market Residential developer Develia has signed a preliminary agreement to acquire all the shares in Bouygues Immobilier Polska the Polish subsidiary of Bouygues Immobilier ESA logistika has leased 15,000 sqm in Prologis Park Piotrków GLP has completed the development of its Wrocław V Logistics Centre and has received a BREEAM rating of Outstanding Panattoni has secured EUR 40 mln in financing from BNP Paribas for the development of Panattoni Park Sosnowiec IV Newgate Investment (NGI) and Redkom Development are developing a large retail park in Bydgoszcz Deutsche Hypo – NORD/LB Real Estate Finance has provided a five-year green loan to Olivia Seven for the refinancing of the Olivia Prime A office building in Gdańsk-Oliwa communications and security company Motorola Solutions has signed a five-year lease renewal 18,000 sqm at the Green Office complex in Kraków’s Podgórze district Falling interest rates and easing monetary policy across the eurozone and CEEi are boosting investor confidence in the region’s commercial real estate market reveals Colliers in its ‘Beyond Real Estate | Economy’ report Panattoni is to build the Panattoni Park Mainz Süd in Erbes-Büdesheim bei Alzey Axi Immo has presented its latest report “Warsaw Office Market – Q1 2025 The market opened in 2025 on a steady footing with a notable increase in leasing activity and a modest decline in vacancy landlords continue to focus on upgrading existing assets and prioritizing quality over quantity Convenience store chain Żabka has officially opened a new logistics centre in Kąty Wrocławskie The first stage of the development will serve 1,500 stores in the Wrocław area Romanian Post has leased over 5,000 sqm of logistics space in CTPark Bucharest to serve as its temporary regional courier and logistics hub for Bucharest JLL has announced the sale and leaseback of two properties by a manufacturing company in a deal worth over PLN 1 bln Warehouse developer CTP is adding 2,000 sqm to its Clubco coworking development in Brno pbb Deutsche Pfandbriefbank has extended an investment facility to PineBridge Benson Elliot for the Diuna Office Park in Warsaw The hotel market in Bucharest continued its recovery in 2024 while the ADR has finally surpassed the milestone of EUR 100 Torus has announced its All.inn students’ residence concept that is soon to appear on ul BIG Poland has acquired the Multishop Suwałki retail park comprising 13,000 sqm of retail space The company now owns nine fully commercialized retail parks in Poland Slate Asset Management has sold three OBI retail stores to the Lindner Group from Germany Cushman & Wakefield has conducted a survey the findings of which are presented in the report From Shopping to Experiences: A Customer’s View on Shopping Centres and Retail Parks Cushman & Wakefield notes that despite evolving shopping trends both retail formats continue to hold strong appeal Multi Poland has taken on the management of the Galeria Przymorze shopping centre in Gdańsk The store offers lifestyle and sporting clothing and is to open this spring According to the "Quo Vadis E-commerce" report released by Cushman & Wakefield the online commerce continues to be a growth driver for the industrial & logistics real estate sector generating significant opportunities for developers and investors the investor behind the Projekt Góraszka shopping and entertainment complex in Wiązowna on Warsaw’s eastern outskirts has obtained a building permit for a mixed-use development Poznan-based company Scallier is opening another facility under the Funshop Park brand in Romania According to the latest report “At a Glance: Modern Retail Market in Poland Q4 2024” from BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland Poland’s retail market experienced record growth in 2024 Cushman &Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market Over half a mln sqm of new retail space came on stream last year marking the highest new supply level in Poland since 2015 This robust development activity occurred amid rising demand from new retailers and improving consumer sentiment which boosted retail sales A new retail park with a total area of 24,000 sqm is set to be developed in Otwock under the name Świderek The investment will be led by Redkom Development Empik has opened a flagship store in the revitalised former Cepelia pavilion in the centre of Warsaw the modernist building has regained its former glory and once again impresses with its original appearance and modern interior Trei Real Estate Poland has opened its 40th Vendo Park The investment was created in Wrocław and has 5,000 sqm Vendo Park Wrocław is the first facility under this banner in the capital of Lower Silesia The retail park was built on a plot of approx An 800 sqm Biedronka grocery store is to open on the ground floor of the Moje Bielany residential complex which is being developed by CeMat A/S at ul Wólczyńska 121 in Warsaw’s Bielany district Spring has very much sprung and everywhere is bathed in the first warm sunshine of the year I have in the back of my mind the terrifying fo .. The Polish warehouse market has finally stabilised after the post-pandemic boom but new challenges and opportunities are on the horizon for the sector UBM Development has been given the go-ahead for the first wooden office building in Poland: Timber Park in Poleczki Business Park in Warsaw The office market in Warsaw is currently experiencing a period of stability in terms of supply and take-up Recent data on overall tenant activity indicates that clients in the cap .. Receive all the latest information from the world of real estate by e-mail the construction of the Aura residential building designed by Robert Konieczny's office KWK Promes According to a report by research company Spectis “Construction companies in Poland 2025-2030” the total revenues of the 300 leading construction gro .. The Globalworth Foundation has provided the authorities in Bucharest with office space for a Covid vaccination centre Panattoni BTS and Commercecon together support the establishment of the second Centaurus Foundation centre in Poland to help horses and other animals intends to focus on operations in other reg .. Six class A office buildings in the PRO Portfolio which is jointly owned by PineBridge Benson Elliot and Sharow Capital have been granted BREEAM In-U .. Who won this year's 14th edition of the Eurobuild Awards The jury and guests gathered at the Double Tree by Hilton hotel in Warsaw chose this year's .. Enjoy the last set of recordings with comments straight from this year's MIPIM we asked experts from our home country for their input will take place on 9-10 April 2025 at the Norblin Factory Event Hall in W .. we invite you to hot episode of the "Eye to eye" podcast The UN Nansen Refugee Award award will go to Poland for the first time According to the office of the UNHCR High Commissioner this year's regional wi .. Czech developer CTP has been granted a EUR 200 mln loan from the European Investment Bank for the roll-out of its large-scale solar panel installation .. while the ADR has finally surpassed the milestone .. Jarosław Szanajca plans to resign from the position of president of the management board of Dom Development at the end of the year and join the superv .. The Polish and Danish governments have entered preliminary discussions for the construction of a tunnel between Szczecin and Copenhagen underneath the .. Viterra has moved into its ​​new 1,500 sqm offices in Olivia Prime part of the Olivia Centre business complex in Gdańsk Panattoni has acquired two properties near Gothenburg The brownfield sites will be replaced by a modern 43,000 sqm facility Contemporary cities are grappling with the challenge of fostering dynamic growth while alleviating environmental pressures Colliers has taken over the management of the Studio B office building located in the Warsaw Wola district The property is owned by Stena Real Estate .. The University of Warsaw has signed a contract with the general contractor for a project at ul The new building will house the faculti .. Velis Real Estate Tech is officially changing its name to Singu adopting the title of its property management product the construction of the Panattoni Park Unterfranken has officially started This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks The action you just performed triggered the security solution There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase You can email the site owner to let them know you were blocked Please include what you were doing when this page came up and the Cloudflare Ray ID found at the bottom of this page Renewed tensions between Russia and the West amid war in Ukraine have focused attention on the ‘Suwałki gap’ this corridor along the Lithuanian-Polish border has been increasingly securitised any attempt to seize control over it would gain the Russians little Last June, following Lithuania’s decision to block the transit of EU-sanctioned goods from Russia’s mainland to Kaliningrad, the Kremlin threatened the Baltic state with ‘serious consequences’ Experts and journalists have started to speculate on what those consequences could be tensions over the Suwałki Corridor or ‘gap’ have come to the fore once again Is the Suwałki gap a potential military target for Moscow’s retaliation except for military and dual-use materials may now travel by train from the metropole of Russia to the oblast of Kaliningrad But the Suwałki corridor remains a concern The Suwałki Corridor is an ill-defined strip of land officially situated along the Polish-Lithuanian border connecting Belarus with the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad the weakest point in NATO near the border between East and West Germany almost no articles in the international literature discussed the Suwałki gap observers have pinpointed the Corridor as the most likely location for the breakout of a war between Russia and NATO It is worth noting that Kaliningrad is not an enclave per se although the Russian president tends to mistakenly call it so Its geographical location between two countries (Lithuania and Poland) and its access to the Baltic Sea prevent it from being called an enclave even if Lithuania stopped transporting goods to Kaliningrad entirely the region would still be able to receive commodities by sea Likewise, although European countries have closed their airspace to Russian aviation planes from Russia’s metropole can still reach Kaliningrad via the air corridor above the Baltic Sea Thus 'disenclaving' Kaliningrad would entail acknowledging that this territory had been 'enclaved' in the first place Russian citizens and commodities currently travel primarily by train from Belarus to Vilnius in Lithuania then down to Kybartai on Kaliningrad's border they do not pass through the Suwałki Corridor Kaliningrad remains accessible by sea and air and Russian citizens and commodities rarely pass through the Suwałki Corridor It is true that this corridor constitutes the most direct land route between Belarus and Kaliningrad Russia would have to adapt to its peculiar geographic characteristics to transport Russian citizens and commodities Russia would need to resolve the lack of infrastructure there are no rail lines or highways in the Suwałki Corridor Transporting humans or goods along it is thus more complicated than travelling by sea there are few incentives to annex the Suwałki corridor as a means of circumventing a Lithuanian blockade and ‘disenclaving’ Kaliningrad by land At first glance, this long strip of land may indeed appear an easy military target. NATO failure to trigger Article 5 in its defence could seriously damage the foundations of Atlantic solidarity But would Russia really expect NATO to remain unresponsive after such an attack Russia has mounted only hybrid attacks on NATO allies yet remained under the threshold of Article 5 is likely to provoke a response from the Alliance Annexing the Suwałki Corridor would be a heavy provocation to NATO yet would have little detrimental impact on its military and strategic options in the region Furthermore, if Russia wanted to block NATO access to its eastern flank, annexing the Suwałki Corridor would be redundant. Experts reference Russia’s A2/AD strategy in the Baltics This would drastically impede land deployment of NATO troops on the territory NATO's movement is de facto obstructed in the region Annexing the Suwałki Corridor to geographically cut off the Baltic states would have little additional impact And Sweden and Finland are in the process of joining NATO This would offer new access to the Baltic states in case of a Russian attack Russia is pursuing a costly war in Ukraine Much like the hype over the Gerasimov doctrine increasing use of the term ‘Suwałki gap’ may prompt its securitisation This could lead observers to regard the territory as being under constant threat It would thus require extraordinary measures – and possibly even further militarisation – to keep it secure Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reminder that Moscow can be unpredictable and reckless But a Russian attack on this corridor would be short-sighted Cindy is also a visiting researcher at the Université Libre de Bruxelles Her PhD explores the role of security experts in NATO-Russia relations She is currently researching the role of wargaming as a mechanism of knowledge production Her research interests include Russia-NATO relations She tweets @cindyregnier This <a target="_blank" href="https://theloop.ecpr.eu/is-the-suwalki-corridor-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/">article</a> was originally published at <a target="_blank" href="https://theloop.ecpr.eu">The Loop</a> and is republished here under a Creative Commons license * I agree to receive your newsletters and accept the data privacy notice Your email address is only used to send you The Loop Digest newsletter But the reasons you're describing are the exact reasons Putin may do it Seizing the Sawalki gap would be a huge 🪶 feather in his cap Except he might not get to wear his feathered cap too long More than half a million Russians live in Kaliningrad oblast including right of passage thru the Suwalki corridor In that case: is it really NATO- and EU-wisdom to escalate tensions in this area?? Non-NATO countries.It looks like he has no stomach for war with NATO but probably would try psychological and other tactics it does not seem like he would have much success he is vastly out-numbered and out-equipped reversing the situation of the USSR and Warsaw Pact Very possible that Russia would consider invading Poland Been there in my US military career and I believe Putin would invade Poland to test NATO to see if NATO and the United States would intervene to defend NATO the “most dangerous place on earth.” The “Suwałki corridor“ is the 100 kilometre or so border region between Lithuania and Poland that runs between Belarus […] Putin is following the same strategy as Hitler did: provoke The years he stayed in East-Germany he learned to understand how the Führer manipulated the leaders of the western world One day day Putin will send his green man to the Suwalki-corridor and then we will have the same kind of incident as in the so-called Gleiwitz incident in 1939 and website in this browser for the next time I comment Δdocument.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value" This issue is preventing our website from loading properly. Please review the following troubleshooting tips or contact us at [email protected] Contact us at [email protected] to learn about upgrade options As the Biden administration monitors Moscow’s reaction to dramatic U.S and allied increases in assistance to Ukraine as well as the punishing Western economic and financial sanctions on Russia it should turn its focus to a relatively small corner of northeastern Europe that is familiar to military strategists but often overlooked by most policymakers and the general public The Suwalki corridor (also known as the Suwalki Gap) separates the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea from Belarus, now host to thousands of Russian troops and soon home to permanently stationed Russian forces, including advanced fighter jets and nuclear weapons It is also the only way to get by road or rail from Poland and Central Europe to the Baltic states—arguably NATO’s most exposed members A Russian move to seize control of the corridor may seem far-fetched as it would explicitly involve an attack on NATO territory if Moscow’s reinvasion of Ukraine has any central lesson to offer at this point and allied officials must prepare now for worst-case scenarios by focusing on actual Russian military capabilities in the region rather than the Kremlin’s announced intent considered estimates of Russia’s strategic logic or intelligence assessments of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s outlook the Suwalki corridor isn’t much of a corridor at least in terms of natural boundaries such as rivers Driving through the area last October while on a research trip to NATO units predominantly characterized by rolling farmland interspersed with forests and small villages Much of it is ideal terrain for tracked vehicles like tanks given the very limited roadways and the gentle hills !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); primarily because of the chokepoint it represents should Russia seek to cut off the Baltics the Kremlin may perceive an increased threat to Kaliningrad and seize the Suwalki corridor to create a land bridge to the exclave seizing the Suwalki corridor would entail attacking Lithuania or Poland or both leading directly to a war between NATO and Russia This seems illogical or at best strategically unwise for Putin the West’s ability to know and understand Putin’s logic and the rationale behind his decision-making has been obviously constrained by a lack of imagination Additionally, no authorities in Washington or Brussels were seriously pushing for Ukrainian membership in the alliance, and Russia’s diplomats and its intelligence services surely knew this. Moreover, Putin’s recent rhetoric of grievance against the West is nothing new—these are themes he has espoused for years aside from the conclusion that this war is about something more than just keeping Ukraine out of NATO For this reason, trying to discern Putin’s intent going forward is a fool’s errand. The West cannot assume it understands how Putin might react to the cratering of the Russian economy, whether his recent rants on pushing NATO out of Central and Eastern Europe amount to policy directives practically colonial relationship with Belarus which is now hosting tens of thousands of Russian troops Instead of trying to discern Putin’s intent or rationale the United States and its allies must focus on the capabilities the Kremlin has amassed in and around Ukraine and Belarus Russia had deployed 30,000 troops into Belarus as well as an array of equipment like Su-25 ground attack aircraft and drones—most of these forces have moved into Ukraine in the last week or continue to support operations there from Belarus another roughly 120,000 Russian troops are entering Ukraine along with an array of armored vehicles these capabilities represent the most significant aggregation of conventional combat power in Eastern Europe since the end of the Cold War Given all this, the West needs to dramatically strengthen its posture and infrastructure in and around the Suwalki region. The first step should be NATO’s assertion that it will no longer be subject to the terms of the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act as a result of Russia’s unilateral abrogation NATO must take into account Russia’s force levels and destabilizing military capabilities present in Kaliningrad and Belarus and come closer to matching them This political agreement committed NATO to carry out its collective defense and other missions by “ensuring the necessary interoperability and capability for reinforcement rather than by additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces” on the territories of the former Warsaw Pact states And it obliged Russia to “exercise similar restraint in its conventional force deployments in Europe.” Moreover both sides agreed that these principles were based on the “current and foreseeable security environment” of 25 years ago and the security environment has changed dramatically British and Canadian ground forces should return permanently to the continent at brigade scale of roughly 4,000 troops each building on their relatively small contingents in Estonia and Latvia German ground forces should also expand to brigade size in Lithuania In addition to recent temporary increases in U.S. rotational presence, Washington should shift toward permanent presence of armor, combat aviation and France—given their military size and importance in the alliance—must commit interoperable battalion-size units of around 800 troops each to permanent basing in Poland or Lithuania as well When it comes to infrastructure, the weight of modern tanks—including the American-built M1A2 that Poland recently announced it will purchase—is likely to overwhelm many of the roads and bridges of northeastern Poland and Lithuania the limited highway and rail capacity in the region cries out for substantial Quickly improving militarily-relevant infrastructure in the Suwalki region substantially and permanently bolstering allied force posture in northeastern Europe and clearly laying the blame for the complete upending of European security at Putin’s feet are necessary steps In the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine NATO’s response must center on capabilities-based planning rather than assumptions about Putin’s true intent or his logic The alliance must take into account Russia’s force levels and destabilizing military capabilities present in Kaliningrad and Belarus and come closer to matching them at least qualitatively in order to deter Moscow Relying on Western guesses about how the Kremlin will respond logically is too great a risk especially if the alliance hopes to keep the Suwalki corridor open John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a nonresident senior fellow at the NATO Defense College. The views expressed are his own. Bluesky: @johnrdeni.bsky.social BIG Poland has expanded its portfolio by acquiring the Multishop Suwałki retail park with 13,000sq m of space Multishop Suwałki is located in the northern part of the city adjacent to one of Suwałki’s largest residential neighbourhoods the Suwałki bypass and the Via Baltica route “The acquisition of the Multishop Suwałki retail park is another investment that reinforces BIG Poland’s commitment to developing the Polish retail sector It also represents a key part of our strategy of acquiring high-quality assets Multishop Suwałki stands out due to its excellent location – it also attracts many customers from Lithuania In addition to the diverse retail offer provided by well-known and popular brands such as HalfPrice the park provides complementary services such as a 24/7 car wash we also acquired a plot designated for future development,” says Eran Levy The seller is a developer actively acquiring attractive plots in well-connected locations They build retail parks that offer residents easy and convenient access to various shopping and services Their activities cover the whole investment process – from land acquisition and zoning plan changes through design and construction to commercialisation and property management during operation Contact us: info@rli.uk.com This is outlined in the draft action plan for implementing the Lithuanian government’s programme. Authorities plan to upgrade the 113-kilometer road linking Vilnius, Alytus, Lazdijai, and Augustow, along with eight bridges, as part of efforts to develop the so-called Alternative Suwalki Corridor. “This corridor provides an alternative route to Western Europe via Poland if the Via Baltica corridor is blocked or needed for other purposes in a crisis,” Transport Ministry spokesman Lukas Paškevičius told BNS. Lithuanian Transport Minister Eugenijus Sabutis and Polish Infrastructure Minister Dariusz Klimczak agreed in Warsaw in January to jointly apply to the European Commission for funding to adapt the Augustow-Vilnius route for military mobility needs. The Suwalki Gap is a land strip of around 100 kilometres on the Lithuanian-Polish border, wedged between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the west and Belarus on the east. Politico has described it as “the most dangerous place in the world”. Please enable JS and disable any ad blocker Reporting by Kuba Stezycki and Pawel Florkiewicz writing by Alan Charlish; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel your new go-to podcast to spice up your weekday mornings with relevant news and behind-the-scenes from Brussels and beyond From the economy to the climate and the EU's role in world affairs this talk show sheds light on European affairs and the issues that impact on our daily lives as Europeans Tune in to understand the ins and outs of European politics Dare to imagine the future with business and tech visionaries Deep dive conversations with business leaders Euronews Tech Talks goes beyond discussions to explore the impact of new technologies on our lives the podcast provides valuable insights into the intersection of technology and society Europe's water is under increasing pressure floods are taking their toll on our drinking water Join us on a journey around Europe to see why protecting ecosystems matters and to discover some of the best water solutions an animated explainer series and live debate - find out why Water Matters We give you the latest climate facts from the world’s leading source analyse the trends and explain how our planet is changing We meet the experts on the front line of climate change who explore new strategies to mitigate and adapt After Russia’s first illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2014 NATO members The conclusion of those reviews made for sleepless reading in Western capitals Russian troops would enter the Estonian capital of Tallinn and the Latvian capital of Riga within 36 to 60 hours an incredible speed that would limit the ability of Western allies to respond effectively Yet there’s one place that worries NATO planners and military strategists more than most — the Suwałki Gap 60km odd stretch of land on the Polish-Lithuanian border which is bordered by Belarus on one side and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the other The Suwałki Gap is the only land corridor that connects the Baltic States with other NATO members It is a narrow stretch of land which in the event of conflict with Russia could be hit with artillery fire from both sides If Russian or Belarusian forces were able to close the gap NATO wouldn’t be able to send reinforcements by land it would be forced to revert to air and sea The danger is that NATO members would be unable to get reinforcements to the Baltic States quickly enough via sea and air and in sufficient numbers to repel Russian forces a mixture of NATO actions and Russian blunders have drastically reduced this risk When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 it sent shockwaves through neighbouring countries The biggest war on the European continent since the end of the Second World War caused a complete re-evaluation of previous assumptions and strategies After following a policy of military neutrality for decades Finland and Sweden both applied to join NATO While Sweden’s membership is still pending after Turkish objections significantly weakening the risk posed by the Suwałki Gap "The accession of Sweden and Finland creates a de facto "NATO Mare Nostrum" (translating to Our NATO Sea) with Russia probably being unable to exert a true anti-access or area denial strategy," Guillaume Lasconjarias and a former researcher at the NATO Defence College in Rome with NATO members bordering most of the Baltic Sea Russia would be unable to prevent Western reinforcements arriving by sea The accession of Finland to NATO also doubled the length of the alliance’s border with Russia This has in the Kremlin’s own words forced Russia to take counter-measures to ensure its own security This increased exposure to a NATO member reduces the chances of any Russian attack on other NATO members bordering the Suwałki Gap When Putin ordered the illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022 it is widely believed that he did so confident that it would be a short The London-based Rusi think-tank says that captured Russian documents show Moscow had a 10-day plan to take over the country and kill its leaders In the almost 600 days since launching the war Russian forces have failed to capture key targets like Kyiv were humiliated by Ukraine’s successful Kharkiv counter-offensive and lost nearly 50,000 troops according to the first independent statistical analysis it has no military capacity to launch any foray into the Suwałki Gap Without a successful military outcome in Ukraine it is unlikely that Putin would be able to order any other major military action It is even less likely given that the countries involved are NATO members Putin’s Ukraine invasion prompted NATO  to launch a huge strategic overhaul The alliance used to rely on small tripwire NATO forces which would deter Russian aggression under fear of triggering NATO’s article 5 and a collective response to an attack Now NATO instead talks about defending every inch of its territory The alliance has set up four new battle groups in four new countries (Bulgaria doubled the number of troops spread across eight battle groups and sent dozens more ships and hundreds more planes to the eastern part of the alliance It has drawn up new plans for how to reach and reinforce the Baltics in the event of an invasion and plans to further boost its presence in the region Lasconjarias also highlights that the Baltic States have made “greater efforts in the mobilisation of their forces and population with the development of "total defence" among their people (like the Estonian Defense League).” and NATO initiatives aimed at boosting military mobility such as the construction of a new trans-Baltic railway will also allow NATO to redeploy its forces more quickly the chances of successfully keeping the Baltic States cut off by closing the Suwałki Gap are reduced it is Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2022 that have made the risk of an attack on the Suwałki Gap so unlikely highly relevant issue briefs and reports that break 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independent analysis from fellows and staff Econographics provides an in-depth look at trends in the global economy utilizing state-of-the-art data visualization tools Tensions have escalated in the region surrounding the Suwalki Gap a strategically significant corridor linking Poland to Lithuania—and thus also to Latvia and Estonia The narrow corridor is flanked by Russia’s heavily militarized Baltic enclave is a supplicating ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin the three Baltic states would effectively be cut off from the rest of NATO according to a senior commander in the group These actions are unsurprisingly consistent with provocations by Putin. In late July, he accused Warsaw of intending to take back territories Soviet leader Joseph Stalin seized from Poland during World War II, including “a good chunk of Ukraine . . . to take back the historic lands.” He added that “it’s well known that they dream of Belarusian lands as well.” an even larger exercise involving six thousand personnel He is trying to seed dissension among the NATO allies And he is trying to undercut Central European confidence in the Alliance Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have responded by reinforcing their borders, with Warsaw sending some ten thousand military troops to its frontier with Belarus But their response should be part of a NATO response to these provocations one that goes beyond rhetorical condemnation and demonstrates the Alliance’s military readiness and capability NATO should conduct a no-notice exercise in the Suwalki Gap and ground assets from other Alliance member states The purpose would be to demonstrate and test operational readiness in coordination with Polish and Lithuanian forces and NATO Enhanced Forward Presence battalions now stationed in those two countries.  The Alliance’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Forces (VTJF) would be an ideal element to serve as the core of this demonstration of force. This force, twenty thousand soldiers strong, features air, maritime, and special operations forces components as well as a multinational land brigade of five thousand troops. Leading elements are tasked to be ready to deploy within three days NATO counterforce deployments exercises were a routine response to military provocations by the Soviet Union including those similar to what Putin is doing in the region around the Suwalki Gap A VTJF deployment would demonstrate that NATO does not fear conflict with Russia—an impression that allied leaders have unfortunately contributed to by repeating that the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must not “NATO-ize” the conflict to avoid World War III That mantra has only led Putin to question the Alliance’s resoluteness Such a deployment would underscore the operationalization of NATO’s new military strategy which was rolled out at the Alliance’s summit in Vilnius in July The Concept for Deterrence and Defense of the Euro-Atlantic Area is designed to enable the Alliance to more effectively respond to aggression including provocations such as those that Putin is orchestrating near the Suwalki Gap Such a “snap exercise” would contribute to the ongoing rejuvenation of the Alliance’s war-fighting mindset and the practice of rapidly and assertively countering Russian provocations through rigorous demonstrations of resolve Some may argue that this would provoke Russia But if there is anything to learn from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine it is this: The Alliance’s failure to conduct more forceful deployments to Central Europe in the months leading up to that attack when Moscow massed forces on Ukraine’s frontiers When considering provocations that warrant a snap exercise recent events in the Suwalki Gap should be at the top of the list Ian Brzezinski is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council he served as US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy Image: Soldiers from multiple countries participate in the distinguished-visitors day as part of Griffin Shock 23 held at Bemowo Piskie Exercise Griffin Shock demonstrates the U.S Army's ability to assure the NATO alliance by rapidly reinforcing the NATO Battle Group Poland to a brigade-size unit Sign up to receive expert analysis from our community on the most important global issues © 2025 Atlantic CouncilAll rights reserved If refreshing the page doesn't resolve the issue you could try clearing the sites browser cache ‘The most dangerous place on Earth’ runs along the Polish/Lithuanian border It has been called “the most dangerous place on Earth”, said Der Stern (Hamburg) running along the Polish/Lithuanian border that connects the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to Belarus The creation of such a land bridge would effectively isolate the Baltic states (Lithuania it was only Russian hawks on “state television” who advocated such an assault: it would risk starting a war between Russia and Nato there are growing fears that war over the Suwalki Gap is precisely what we’re heading for From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox Vilnius says it’s simply following EU guidelines on sanctions – but the move sparked fury in Russia, said Dmitry Drize in Kommersant (Moscow) Some Russian MPs have been urging Moscow to “cancel the recognition of Lithuania as an independent state”; military drills have been held in Kaliningrad; Kremlin officials talk ominously of serious consequences for Lithuania its importance to Moscow will only increase in the process committing a far higher share of its GDP than many of its wealthier EU counterparts by implementing Brussels’s sanctions package it will do serious damage to Kaliningrad’s economy Some may deem it unwise to poke the Russian bear but Moscow’s war on Ukraine has shown that treating Russia cautiously is a tactic that just doesn’t work Well, the bear has certainly been poked, said Michael Thumann in Die Zeit (Hamburg) “Not a day goes by without Russian politicians making wild threats against Lithuania and Nato.” Yet an attack remains unlikely Sounding off about what Russia calls the “blockade” of Kaliningrad and threatening Nato members is President Putin’s way of trying to spook the West into easing sanctions If that’s his strategy, said Andrius Sytas and John O’Donnell on Reuters are now said to be seeking a compromise over Kaliningrad: they’re terrified that Putin may use the dispute as a pretext to reduce gas flows to Europe or “use military force to plough a land corridor” through the Suwalki Gap That is indeed a seriously scary prospect, said Matthew Karnitschnig on Politico (Brussels) is ill-equipped for a Russian assault.” In theory a move by Russia on Poland or Lithuania would trigger Nato’s Article 5 mutual-defence provision but there’s no certainty that would happen in practice “How eager would Washington and Nato be to risk Armageddon over a stretch of largely unpopulated farmland few of their citizens even know exists?” That is precisely the sort of anxiety Putin loves to provoke A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com Poland’s President Andrej Duda speaks during a joint media conference with Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda during the Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap close to the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village Alytus district west of the capital Vilnius in Lithuania on Friday The week-long military exercise which started April 22 is to test a defense scenario on the bilateral so-called “Orsha” plan to defend the Suwałki Gap a corridor of almost 100 kilometers (62 miles) between the two NATO members Poland and Lithuania Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda and Poland’s President Andrej Duda arrive to attend in the Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap near the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village Over 1500 troops and 200 pieces of tactical equipment are rehearsing defence scenarios under the bilateral Lithuanian-Polish Orsha Plan near the Suwalki Gap and Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda sit together to watch a Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap near the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village A Lithuanian Army soldier takes part in a Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap near the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village Military vehicles takes part in the Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap near the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village Lithuanian Army soldiers take part in a Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap near the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces Gen Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda and Poland’s President Andrej Duda to watch a Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap near the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village speaks during a joint media conference with Poland’s President Andrej Duda during the Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap at the Dirmiskes village Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda speaks during a joint media conference with Poland’s President Andrej Duda during the Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap close to the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausedas and Poland’s President Andrej Duda attend a Lithuanian-Polish Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise near the Suwalki Gap near the Polish border at the Dirmiskes village Lithuania (AP) — Polish President Andrzej Duda said Friday that “a potential aggressor must see our readiness” as he and his Lithuanian counterpart monitored a joint military drill along their shared border Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda met on the last day of the week-long Brave Griffin 24/II military exercise along the Suwalki Gap a strategically important stretch of land that’s considered a potential flashpoint area in case of a standoff between Russia and NATO almost 100 kilometers (62 miles) long between NATO members Poland and Lithuania and Russia’s Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad which is why these exercises are going on,” Duda said The drill included 1,500 Lithuanian infantry soldiers nearly 200 members of Poland’s 15th Mechanized Brigade Until recently the land border was seen as vulnerable because if Russia were to ever seize the Suwalki Gap it could leave Lithuania and the other two Baltic states However that perception of the corridor has changed since Sweden joined NATO in March as the Baltic Sea now is almost surrounded by NATO countries and any attempts to cut off the corridor would not leave Baltic countries severed The Baltic Sea is Russia’s maritime point of access to the city of St which is separated from the Russian mainland also provides land access connections between Belarus and Kaliningrad Russian citizens have a visa waiver arrangement for passing through the area either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content As the world's eyes turn from Ukraine to Israel and Gaza, NATO countries on the alliance's eastern edge are staring down Russia and strengthening their presence on the bloc's "most exposed" flank and other NATO nations close to Russia and Belarus are bolstering defense and their "deterrence posture on the Eastern flank," including protection for the contentious Suwałki Gap A small strip of land close to the Polish-Lithuanian border that links Belarus to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad With Poland and Lithuania staunch allies of Ukraine—and Belarus firmly standing with Russia—the Suwałki Gap has been intermittently described as NATO's weak point and the alliance's most fortified boundary we are creating [the] right set of capabilities and plans to defend every inch of NATO's territory," Anušauskas said Lithuania is investing in its armed forces and its supplies and NATO's presence close to the Gap although the strategically important strip of land will "remain a fundamental challenge." the Baltic States remain as the most exposed [of] NATO's territory which requires specific measures to ensure credible deterrence and defense," Anušauskas explained Russia used Belarus as a springboard to launch its invasion of Ukraine 20 months ago and reignited fears over the Suwałki Gap earlier this year when exiled Wagner mercenaries moved en masse to Belarusian bases close to it The main concern for the Baltic nations is that Russia could mount some form of military incursion into NATO via the Gap from Belarus burrowing into Europe via the strip of land on the way to Kaliningrad "It facilitates the possible land routes for NATO troops in between Central Europe and the Baltic States," Anušauskas said With Belarus "basically integrated into Russia's military planning," as Anušauskas put it it is not hard to see how Moscow could move a large number of its troops through it into NATO heartlands while having the ability to resupply them via the port at Kaliningrad Any incursion of this type on a NATO country would likely spark a collective emphatic response under the alliance's Article 5 which regards an attack on a member as an attack on all other member states But despite the worries of the NATO governments close to the Gap not least because of NATO's attention on the territory It is "baffling" to consider the Gap a significant possible flashpoint now and it is very hard to see how Russia could a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Chatham House think tank Russia has neither the intent nor the capability to mount such an assault on NATO a research fellow specializing in Russia at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank It is "quite unrealistic" to imagine Russia could launch a ground operation in the Gap as it fights its war in Ukraine "Russian troops are so embroiled in eastern Ukraine at the moment but very hard to see where there would be even breathing room for them to consider a land assault on another country," she said It would "be a declaration of war in Europe" that Moscow shows all the signs of wanting to avoid may be "inherently vulnerable," this is balanced out by Russia's significant military presence and missile systems based there is a red line—even for Moscow," Ferris said The Wagner troops that loomed on the alliance's eastern flank have retreated as a threat in recent weeks; reports have suggested their Belarusian bases have been dismantled and many fighters have returned to Ukraine and the NATO countries do not forget the "range of provocations from Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarusian sides" described by Anušauskas but Lithuania remembers "orchestrated migration waves" and "increased tactical nuclear threatening" over the last two years Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground Newsletters in your inbox See all Looking to access paid articles across multiple policy topics Interested in policy insights for EU professional organisations Lithuania has partly closed rail transit of Russian goods to and from its exclave of Kaliningrad saying it was enacting EU sanctions but the move has angered Moscow igniting fears over the so-called Suwałki Gap has contributed an explainer about the issue The Suwalki Gap is 70-km long narrow stretch of land For years it has been dubbed NATO’s Achilles Heel Russia on Monday (20 June) demanded that Lithuania immediately lift a ban on the transit of some goods to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Lithuania was not acting unilaterally and was only applying EU sanctions when it decided to ban the transit of some goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell said on Monday (20 June) “There’s nothing to be concerned about just yet" Irek Dorozanski/Polish Ministry of National Defence/Getty Images On leaving the train station in the Polish town of Suwalki one of the first things I saw was a giant billboard across the road before switching to Polish to exclaim “Bez Odbioru” (Over and out) and then with a flourish in Ukrainian “Слава Україні” (Slava Ukrayini) A Polish man in black uniform screamed down the microphone about the “Banderite Ukrainian fascist threat” as bemused international aid workers lounged about drinking beer By Aris Roussinos The historian Timothy Synder has described this Central and Eastern European zone as “the bloodlands”: a vast stretch of soil characterised by Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia’s slaughter of millions many of its residents remain consumed by their national history there are murals dedicated to national conflict when the minority Polish population of Sejny led by a secret nationalist group the Polish Military Organisation inculcate a civic form of Polish nationalism and reconquer the old lands of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in Lithuania Slomka didn’t seem scared of living close to Russia: “It’s nothing,” he said “I think we are prepared for everything.” Growing up in the Suwalki area he had only met Ukrainians and never Russians — despite the country being only a few kilometres away living so close to Russia and Belarus “didn’t seem like a big deal — they are not connected” When I asked if they believed Russian media rhetoric about a possible invasion of the Suwalki Gap Augustynowicz simply responded: “They can try.” By Aris Roussinos which hosts the Grand Duchess Birutė Mechanised Uhlan Battalion — part of Lithuania’s contribution to Nato collective defence operations — in a barracks built for the Russian Tsar’s army in the 19th century first lieutenant Žygimantas Mituzas told me: “Strategically it’s good that Lithuania and Poland are working together.” Tensions over Lithuania’s imposition of EU sanctions on Kaliningrad “didn’t give any extra [Nato] deployment to the region — but since the invasion of Ukraine there has been more public attention turned to the military” On a firing range across the base, I met several late-teenage conscripts — Lithuania reintroduced conscription in 2015 after Russia annexed Crimea a short young man with an American-tinged English accent He seemed hesitantly positive about the situation in the Suwalki Gap saying: “There’s nothing to be concerned about just yet…” Dukleris generally seemed to think Nato was helping to deescalate tensions: “I’m happy that we have allies that we can fight alongside but that’s not very accurate.” He said that Polish-Lithuanian relations had improved after years of low-level tension: “There’s a deep history from before the Middle Ages — we do have this connection We’re kind of like a couple that broke up but stayed good friends.” His own connection to Poland came in the form of conscripts from mixed families: “There are quite a few Polish-Lithuanian folks here [at the base] By David Patrikarakos But what is the guiding ideology behind the reconstructed Polish-Lithuanian wall While America talks of a reaffirmed liberal word order the attitude on the ground speaks to a different vision the “most dangerous place on earth” seems haunted by ghosts from the past just as much as it is by the presence of an expansionist Russia both the past and the present find themselves at the centre of a renewed struggle for power Samuel McIlhagga is a British writer and journalist Δdocument.getElementById( "ak_js_2" ).setAttribute( "value" Please click here to view our media pack for more information on advertising and partnership opportunities with UnHerd Capture by hostile forces of Suwalki or bordering Lithuanian territory would cut off the three Baltic States from other NATO countries Analysts have likened Suwalki to the Cold War era’s Fulda Gap in Germany where NATO planned and prepared for hypothetical Soviet attacks In addition to the region’s problematic geography and militarized environment due to neighbouring Kaliningrad and Belarus the Suwalki Gap is different and potentially an even more vulnerable target because the Kremlin could exploit the region’s historic ethnic tensions The territory dubbed the Suwalki Gap (“przesmyk Suwalski” in Polish) is a north-eastern Polish territory bordering Lithuania in the north-east The nearly 64 miles wide land strip in the Sejny district is also so called “Suwalki corridor” or by the Lithuanians referred to as the “Suwalki triangle” (based on the three towns of Punsk which remains among Russia’s closest and most loyal political and military allies has been in discussions to house a large Russian air base while the town of Suwalki also includes some 500 Lithuanians Warsaw sought to regain this territory due to the sizable numbers of Polish speakers Lithuanian and Polish troops clashed in the Sejny Uprising of 1919 and the Battle of the Niemen River of 1920 after which the two countries signed the Treaty of Suwalki recognizing Punsk Vilnius – the historical capital of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania – was also agreed to be part of Lithuania but in two days it was captured by Polish troops and remained occupied until 1939 along with perception that Warsaw pursued polonization policies in the Suwalki triangle resulted in tensions between the two countries that continued to reverberate until present day Russian Influence in SuwalkiIn addition to the local Polish-Lithuanian tensions, there is also a potential dimension of Russian influence in Suwalki. While Russia has long sought to engage Russian speakers and even other ethnic minorities in the former Soviet republics through various youth military camps and militarized tournaments Moscow has also seen some success in attracting the participation of Polish citizens the International Strikeball Tournament “Put’ k Pobede” (Road to Victory) has been taking place in Russia since 2010 and drawn participants from Poland in 2014 The event enacting real-life scenarios of potential Russian military conflicts is organized by the Spetsnaz Rus ‒ a Russian organization active since 2005 and composed of Veterans of Spetsnaz (Special Forces) and Participants of Military Operations Association a fight was simulated between the Syrian government (supported by Russian troops) and rebels (supported by the US) In light of territorial conflicts and separatism that have rocked the post-Soviet states of Ukraine and Moldova it is also a worrying sign that Lithuanian radicals from time to time put claims in social media arguing for Lithuania to regain the Suwalki triangle from Poland While conflict between the two countries is highly unlikely it is not out of the realm of possibility that ethnic tensions in Suwalki could be used to stir up local separatism that radical calls could be made for the region’s incorporation into Kaliningrad (as pro-Russia radicals have suggested in the case of Lithuanian port city of Klaipeda) or that historic mistrust between Poland and Lithuania could impact the cooperation or perceptions of their populations (though less likely their governments and military that are bound by NATO agreements) in the face of a Russian attack the Suwalki Gap will remain a troublesome land strip for NATO due to the military build-up on its borders and Moscow’s ambitions in the post-Soviet space This is further complicated by the historical and ethnic tensions of the region that still remain salient and could potentially be further enflamed NATO would be wise to assess not only the military elements but also these broader historical and cultural fault-lines in the region and Ukrainian military brigade in 2017 will be a positive step in mitigating the regional risks and encouraging Warsaw and Vilnius to build mutual understanding to finally transcend the question of minorities and historical mistrust but much could be done with the support of the United States and NATO Image: The geo-strategic area around Suwalki, Poland has a rich and complex history (graphic: Google) Sign up to receive expert analysis from our community on the most important global issues, rapid insights on events as they unfold, and highlights of the Council's best work. © 2025 Atlantic CouncilAll rights reserved. If refreshing the page doesn't resolve the issue you could try clearing the sites browser cache. Kremlin threats of retaliation against NATO ally Lithuania for instituting a transit ban over the weekend that affects Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad could have serious implications for several hundred U.S. soldiers positioned in nearby northeastern Poland. For years, security analysts have feared that in the event of a crisis with Russia, Moscow could seal off the Baltic states from the rest of NATO by seizing the Suwalki Gap, a vulnerable choke point that connects Poland to Lithuania. On Monday, the Kremlin lashed out at Lithuania for imposing a ban on rail transit across its territory of certain goods that are subject to European Union sanctions, calling the decision unlawful. Items such as steel, coal and alcoholic beverages are affected. “We pointed out in this regard that if the transit of goods between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of Russia through Lithuania is not fully restored, Russia reserves the right to take action to protect its national interests,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Russia did not specify what retaliatory measures it was considering, but the threats have put a renewed spotlight on the Suwalki Gap. NATO did not immediately respond Tuesday to a question about whether steps are being taken to enhance the unit’s ability to mobilize. But at a summit of alliance heads of state next week in Madrid, NATO is expected to approve plans that will bolster the alliance’s eastern flank. Lithuanian officials have downplayed concerns about an imminent Russian attack over the ban, saying Russian forces already have their hands full fighting in Ukraine. “We are not particularly worried about Russian threats,” Laurynas Kasciunas, chairman of the Lithuanian parliament’s national security and defense committee, said as quoted by The New York Times. “The Kremlin has very few options for how to retaliate.” Kasciunas added that an attack is “highly unlikely because Lithuania is a member of NATO. If this were not the case, they probably would consider it.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the situation as “more than serious.” “This decision is really unprecedented,” he said. “It’s a violation of everything.” Lithuania said the transit ban was imposed in conjunction with EU sanctions. On Monday, the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, confirmed that the ban was not a unilateral action, saying “the accusation against Lithuania that it is implementing Lithuanian sanctions is false, pure propaganda,” according to news reports. Isolated from mainland Russia, Kaliningrad uses trains to get goods into the territory by crossing Belarus and Lithuania. In recent years, Russia has built up its defenses in the exclave, where nuclear capable missiles are based. According to a NATO fact sheet, Battlegroup Poland operates on a “nearly ceaseless training schedule” to ensure that it is ready on short notice and up to the task of deterring enemies. 2018 2:14 PM [ET] | Originally published: March 15 2017 2:36 PM EDT;The Suwalki gap is about 60 miles long a stretch of land found on Poland’s border with Lithuania Its vulnerability could decide the fate of the Baltic states The land connects the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad with Belarus, known for being a Moscow ally. Its possible exposure to Kremlin control is a source of worry for U.S. officials, the Wall Street Journal reports. If Moscow gained control of the corridor the Baltic States would will lead a deterrent force from April 2017 based at the Suwalki gap in an attempt to secure the area Sixty-mile strip on edge of Poland and Lithuania is seen as vulnerable due to its position between Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus Stefan Bilas, 68, says he hears the Russians sometimes. It can be the growl of tanks that drowns out the gentle clucking of the chickens in his front yard, or more often the whirr of attack helicopters or the deafening roar of fighter jets, destination unknown. Artillery fire was heard the other night and there is a shooting range somewhere over there, he points. The lights of a Russian watchtower can be seen at the dead of night. “Peace,” toasts the retired farmer, knocking back a vodka. Bilas, the son of a Ukrainian forcibly resettled to the area by the Soviets in 1947 under Operation Vistula – Joseph Stalin’s mass transfer of Ukrainians and others into de-Germanised territory under his control – was born and bred in this Polish village, Rudziszki, where the one road of 63 houses ends at a closed gate to a forest. Entrance is forbidden. Strangers to the village are not even allowed to walk as far as Bilas’s home. Read moreThat is because the trees mark where Poland stops and the 5,800 sq mile (15,000 sq km) exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea begins Bilas’s small white-washed house is the last on the road The forest – just 100 metres deep but thick and tall – covers almost all sins as Halina places a plate of garlic sausage and salted tomato slices on the kitchen table Stefan Bilas (left) visits his neighbours Jan Wolodzko and Henryka Wolodzko Photograph: Anna Liminowicz/The Guardian“I think about it every day,” says Bilas Kill us in our beds.” “What do I think of them?” he says picking up a copy of a Polish-language biography of Ukraine’s president This is “Suwałki Gap” territory, the 60-mile or so long strip of land around the border of Poland and Lithuania that is straddled to the west by the Russians and to the east by Kremlin-friendly Belarus where Vladimir Putin would probably strike first should he decide that western involvement in his war in Ukraine has left him with nothing to lose The Baltic capitals might be taken in less than three days Putin would try to cut off Nato’s attempts to reinforce by turning this swathe of border area the one land corridor that would be available to the western military alliance There are just two roads and one railway line going from Poland to Lithuania through the gap which is otherwise marshy and difficult terrain for a mechanised army Belarus’s dictatorial leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has shown in the war in Ukraine that he is willing to let Putin use his country as a launchpad for an invasion Russian news wires have reported that service personnal from the Baltic Sea fleet of the Russian Federation have been conducting a training exercise for missile and artillery units The provocative timing of the Russian exercises is no doubt deliberate. The Suwałki Gap has been the subject of intense interest at home and abroad in light of the row between Lithuania and the Kremlin Lithuania has been accused of “blockading” Kaliningrad after its state railways refused to allow the rail transit of steel and iron ore now prohibited from being imported into the EU The Russian foreign ministry has warned the government in Vilnius of retaliation that will “have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania” once comfortably nestled within the Soviet Union is in the post-communist world stranded among EU and Nato allies and reliant on much of its goods – including metal gas and oil – arriving on the 100 trains from mainland Russia that are permitted to cross Lithuania under deals struck in 2004 The Kremlin says blocking the transit of any goods destined purely for Kaliningrad is an “illegal and unprecedented” act that flies in the face of those agreements Lithuania has said it is merely enforcing EU laws The EU’s high representative for foreign affairs said on Monday he would “double check” whether the Lithuanians were acting to the letter of the law A peaceful street scene in Suwałki the city’s mayor has drawn up a list of buildings that can be adapted into bomb shelters Photograph: Anna Liminowicz/The GuardianThe commission subsequently said it would issue additional guidance that would “avoid sanctions evasion while allowing free transit” in what appeared to be something of a retreat But perhaps not one the Lithuanians are willing to make said at a leaders summit in Brussels that the transit ban on steel and ferrous metal through the EU was part of the bloc’s sanctions said he was unimpressed by the commission’s attempt to involve itself in an issue that was for leaders and not officials in Brussels Lithuania is among the post-Soviet states that have been rallying the EU and Nato to be tougher on the Kremlin Should those on the trains transporting permitted goods on the railway into Kaliningrad peek through their curtained windows they would be greeted at a stop in Vilnius and the customs post on the Kaliningrad border with the sight of large posters showing images of the war in Ukraine It is unclear whether Vilnius will take a step back There is much talk of the dispute in Suwałki The mayor has drawn up a list of buildings that can be adapted into bomb shelters returning via the city’s constitution park from a shift in the kitchen of a local restaurant say talk radio is filled with chatter about it Malgorzata Olszewska (left) and Diana Hiczel Everyone is worried.’ Photograph: Anna Liminowicz/The GuardianApart from Polish forces the closest Nato troops to Suwałki are in a vast military camp at Bemowo Piskie It is filled with 800 soldiers from the 1st battalion 185th Infantry Regiment from the California National Guard along with another 400 from the British Royal Dragoons and other Romanian and Croatian units There is a village v Nato volleyball competition arranged for Sunday His daughter is married to a soldier from Tennessee whom she met during the American’s tour here “They will never attack Poland and Lithuania – we have Nato,” Bednarski says who served as Nato’s deputy supreme allied commander Europe between 2011 and 2014 and wrote a thriller in 2017 in which Putin’s Russia invades Ukraine before attacking Lithuania and the other Baltic states “He wants to re-establish a Russian empire he wants to reunite Russian speakers under the banner of Mother Russia to decouple America from European security he has looked at the west and seen consistent western weakness: the disarmament of European countries; he has looked at the Barack Obama chemical weapons red line in 2013 and watched as Obama stepped back; absolutely watched how Trump treated the Nato alliance and the collapse of the Nato mission in Afghanistan What he has seen is consistent western weakness and he has decided to take the opportunity to achieve his strategic aims.” Shirreff says the sabre-rattling in recent days should not be dismissed but instead lead to a much a greater reinforcement of Nato forces in the region He says: “The threat to Lithuania particularly given the Lithuanians have imposed sanctions on Russian goods to Kaliningrad is certainly a real concern The reality is that number one Russia is completely fixed on Ukraine at the moment but that does not mean there is not a threat As for the consequences of Russia succeeding in blocking the Suwałki Gap Shirreff sees nothing good for Bilas and his neighbours “There is no way Nato would be able to recapture the Baltic states without mounting an operation of the scale of D-day plus This article was amended on 27 June 2022 to expand on a reference to Operation Vistula “Can you imagine a scenario where you would send Russian troops into Poland?” asks Tucker Carlson By saying “Poland,” the American journalist likely refers to a specific place: the Suwalki Gap This narrow strip of land between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region is where the borders of Lithuania and Poland meet — and where Russian interests lie it has been mentioned increasingly in the context of… World War III write that the Bundeswehr (German army) is considering a scenario in which Russia would attack NATO countries specifically through the Suwalki Gap The Bundeswehr says it’s merely a training scenario And this same scenario is being considered… by a Polish studio developing a war game “Play of Battle.” The events start just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — and then Correspondents from Euroradio decided to find out how the people of peaceful Suwalki live and what they think about the war It’s closer to the Belarusian city of Grodno than to the nearest large Polish city The center features a pedestrian street and many cafes Guests gather for the popular blues festival reminded by the graffiti and sculptures on the central street “Suwalki is a medium-sized city; it’s very clean here You can walk from your house to the store or work within 15 minutes… there are no traffic jams like in big cities such as Warsaw or Gdansk,” says local resident Karol Szwierzbin “Tourists mainly come to Suwalki in search of peace and quiet Anna from Ukraine wasn’t looking for untouched nature — just a quiet place She has been living in Suwalki for seven years: I liked that children could safely ride their bicycles here come back from dance classes at nine in the evening And I knew for sure that nothing bad would happen to them everything is calm and friendly,” Anna shares with us “There’s a very tolerant attitude towards people here I’ve never encountered any discrimination The city is so peaceful that we even feel a bit awkward stopping locals to ask: “Where are the shelters in case of war?” Our interlocutors are very surprised by this question buy magnets in the souvenir shop — and think about anything but war Maybe just to the basement,” says one local resident it’s important to filter this information somehow not to believe everything,” says the woman Many explain their calmness by “Article 5 of NATO”: if an alliance ally is attacked One of the regional residents says that the sounds of military helicopters These aren’t sounds of war — but they are military sounds and they resonate loudly against the usual silence of the untouched nature of this region tries to prepare for the possibility of war Not because they expect it — but because it’s impossible to predict what will happen.” “The executive committee and city services provided residents with information on where to find shelters,” says our interlocutor Karol “But I wouldn’t demonize the significance of the Suwalki Corridor Politicians often speak of the Suwalki Corridor as a very dangerous place on the geopolitical map but we need to consider not only the kind of neighbors we have but also the type of landscape we have we have the Suwalki Landscape Park — these are post-glacial territories And this is far from an ideal landscape for troop movement Putin says he will send his troops to Poland “only in one case”: “If there is an attack on Russia from the Polish side.” And while Vladimir Putin has not accused the neighbors of bloodthirstiness and hatred towards Russians we asked the locals how relations with neighbors from the Kaliningrad region have been built over the years probably liked the life quality here in Poland but it wasn’t about being better or worse than anyone We were just good neighbors,” shares local resident Teresa Szwierubska “The relations between ordinary people have always been good Ordinary residents of the Kaliningrad region are not to blame for having such leaders in power We can condemn Russia as a state for aggression but this condemnation should not extend to all its citizens In the local ‘Biedronkas’ (a popular chain of stores in Poland) there are no longer Russians — entry to Poland for residents of the Kaliningrad region Because it’s a region geographically close to us and there’s no chance for things to change,” says Teresa Talk of a war that may start in the Suwalki Corridor doesn’t increase the chances for Russians to shop in Biedronka again Talk of a third world war starting in the Suwalki Corridor began after the German publication Bild released a secret Bundeswehr document seriously considering a scenario of a clash between Putin’s armies and NATO We would like to call this publication ‘alarmist’ the same “Bild” wrote that in a few months Russia would attack Ukraine Information about plans that supposedly exist within Russia’s General Staff for a military operation against Ukraine And then many did not believe ‘Bild’ ‘Bild’ was right,” tells us political analyst Pavel Slyun’kin “Now ‘Bild’ has released this map but it’s not about insider information it’s about how theoretically this Russian military operation would look if it decides to go to war with NATO And that’s a fundamental difference.“ According to a scenario reported by “Bild,” which the Bundeswehr is supposedly considering an artificially induced “border conflict” and “unrest with numerous casualties” occur around the “Suwalki Corridor.” none of my acquaintances laugh at ‘Bild‘,” says Slyun’kin “And the fact that the context of our discussion has moved to understand that a war between Russia and NATO is not a fantasy scenario is something that’s being discussed not just by analysts but by Western leaders And they’re calling on society to prepare for a possible war with Russia This speaks volumes about how the world has changed in recent years head of the “Ukrainians in Suwalki” organization does not expect a new war and does not think about it unless someone asks her directly that “someone” was journalists from Euroradio: I didn’t think the 2022 invasion would happen either.” Several Ukrainian women in the organization’s premises say — good thing you didn’t ask me We conclude: not everyone takes the possibility of a new invasion as calmly as Anna “But what really worries me is: my car is in the shop there would be no problems at all,” says Anna Just a few days before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine Vladimir Putin assured that he was not preparing for any war He criticized NATO countries for their sharp reaction to the movement of Russian troops near Ukraine’s borders He mocked fears that Russia would go to war with NATO as well he essentially justifies Adolf Hitler’s attack on Poland arguing that if Poland had “amicably” agreed to cede the so-called “Polish Corridor,” which connected Germany with Königsberg (now Kaliningrad) We asked Pavel Slyun’kin to explain why Putin is invoking Hitler and the “corridor.” he implies: if they had agreed with Hitler perhaps there would have been no world war And this significantly changes even the Russian historical rhetoric this is a justification of Nazism — a policy that is absolutely illegal even in Putin’s regime He compares the situation in Ukraine with the situation between Germany and Poland but it would have been better to yield and agree and we would not have lost tens of millions of lives Still: is this a hint that it was not worth fighting for Ukraine — or that it is not worth fighting for Suwalki trying to find out if NATO and its allies really will fight for every inch of the alliance’s perimeter This is a topic many military analysts have discussed after the attack on Ukraine what if the war had started not against Ukraine but against the Baltic states The USA would have faced a choice — to send their troops to fight not sending Americans to reclaim these territories Putin could prove that Article 5 of NATO doesn’t work.” “Now they are trying to check if the United States is willing to fight for every inch of NATO territory as Biden says,” believes Pavel Slyun’kin the game was announced and several scenes from it were shown in the center of Warsaw The main principle of “Play of Battle” is that players can influence the development of events with their choices We asked Slyun’kin what choices NATO countries could make to prevent a world war “Russia currently lacks the capability to conduct this war But if we see that European countries and their defense industries are unprepared (and since 2022 they failed to meet even their quite minimalist expectations for manufacturing military equipment and munitions for Ukraine) Russia will feel it has more incentives to attack Then we’ll see the re-appearance of Russian troops in the territory of Belarus They will no longer be on the southern border but closer to the west it will be understood that something is being prepared A week after our interview with Pavel Slyun’kin We went to the Trójstyk — the place where the borders of Poland This fence is a result of the migration crisis He doesn’t believe that Putin will decide to attack Poland and try to seize the Suwalki Corridor Rosuł draws our attention to the landscape: it’s all hills and valleys around Convenient for defense and quite inconvenient for attack At the place where the three borders intersect there are markers measuring the distance to the capitals of each of the three countries cranes!” Rosuł draws our attention to the field NATO member Lithuania is "actively monitoring" the Wagner Group of mercenaries amassing in Belarus as tensions simmer over the contentious Suwałki Gap "Lithuanian institutions are actively monitoring the processes related to the Wagner Group," although they are considered an ill-equipped force a spokesperson for Vilnius' Defense Ministry told Newsweek on Wednesday responding to a query about the security situation in the Suwałki Gap A Russian lawmaker told Moscow-controlled state television that Wagner forces could be in Belarus to seize the Suwałki Gap This claim could not be independently verified by Newsweek but if Wagner troops moved into Polish or Lithuanian territory this would likely spark a NATO response under Article 5 which considers an attack on a member as an attack on all other member states On Sunday, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said Warsaw was creating a new military engineering battalion in a town close to the Suwałki Gap Poland has previously said it was redeploying more than 1,000 soldiers over concerns around Wagner's presence in Belarus Russian armed forces seized the group's weapons and heavy equipment," a Lithuanian Defense Ministry spokesperson said in a statement to Newsweek "Without heavy weapons and combat armored vehicles this group can only carry out very limited tasks." The Russian Defense Ministry said in mid-July that Wagner had handed over more than 2,000 pieces of military equipment following the mutiny as well as over 2,500 tons of ammunition and 20,000 small arms the numbers of the group's members (both total and those in Belarus) published in the Russian and Belarusian media and social networks are inflated," Lithuania's Defense Ministry added Estimates on just how many Wagner fighters are now stationed in Belarus vary which monitors military activity in Belarus said on Monday that at least 3,500 mercenaries had crossed into Belarus whereas Ukraine's Border Guard Service put the figure at 5,000 on Saturday "The inflated figures and the very fact that Wagner is stationed in Belarus are just attacks of the Russian-Belarusian regime's information war," Vilnius said "There is currently no conventional military threat posed by this group to Lithuania—the Wagner Group in Belarus Moscow and Minsk will likely "continue to exploit the group for the purposes of information warfare," Lithuania's Defense Ministry added Newsweek has reached out to the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries for comment via email Jan 23, 2024 | Politics Poland and Lithuania will conduct joint military exercises around the Suwałki Gap a strategically sensitive area along the Polish-Lithuanian border between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus The plans were announced during a visit by Polish President Andrzej Duda to his Lithuanian counterpart “I’m very happy that the Polish president has responded with enthusiasm to the desire to have a joint exercise in this area called the Suwalłi Gap,” said Nausėda in a joint interview by the two presidents with news website Delfi Nausėda noted that the Suwałki Gap “is an integral part of NATO’s strategic plans” while Duda described it as “sensitive in terms of European security”. The corridor has long been seen as a potential weak point in a war with Russia and tensions there have increased since the invasion of Ukraine Nausėda added that Lithuania and Poland are still discussing the timing of the exercises but that it was likely they would take place in April He also revealed that there were broader plans for the two countries to “step up military cooperation” told Delfi that “Russian imperialism has reawoken after 30 years” Poland has been “restoring defence capabilities in the eastern part of our country as well as strengthening border protection” Today, with 🇵🇱President @AndrzejDuda we agreed to continue expanding our bilateral defense cooperation improving military mobility and ensuring the presence of Allies in the region Our security and defense cooperation is key to prosperity of our nations. pic.twitter.com/MDkTPOzGIF — Gitanas Nausėda (@GitanasNauseda) January 21, 2024 Lithuania and Poland last conducted a joint exercise at the beginning of July 2023 in the Lithuanian city of Klaipeda where special forces from both countries trained in recovering seized critical infrastructure the pair also signed the so-called Orsha agreement under which they launched closer coordination of defence activities around the Suwałki Gap Both countries have also faced a crisis on their borders with Belarus where since 2021 tens of thousands of migrants and asylum seekers – mostly from Asia Africa and the Middle East – have sought to cross into the EU in what has been described as part of a “hybrid attack” Wagner forces in Belarus have moved towards the Suwałki Gap between Poland and Lithuania The mercenaries will mount “hybrid attacks” by helping migrants illegally enter Poland and may even enter themselves disguised as migrants, he warns https://t.co/RqxXeGtKoa — Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) July 29, 2023 Agata Pyka is an assistant editor at Notes from Poland She is a journalist and a political communication student at the University of 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The small gap has long been considered one of NATO’s most vulnerable areas should a conflict with Russia ever develop The concerns center on whether allies could mobilize fast enough should the Russian military attempt to seal off the Baltic states from the rest of the alliance V Corps and NATO Multinational Corps Northeast are rehearsing how it would surge forces into that area in a crisis Units from the Army’s 4th Infantry Division Germany-based 2nd Cavalry Regiment and other Germany-based units will be part of the exercise allies demonstrate that we are a highly capable … formation that can deter and confront and defend potential aggressors,” Lt commanding general of NATO Multinational Corps-Northeast some fear that the Baltic states could be next Russia will hold one of its biggest military exercises since the Cold War Tens of thousands of military personnel are expected to participate in the Zapad 17 drill set to take place over seven days in Belarus the 64-mile border between Poland and Lithuania This is the only border the Baltic states share with the rest of NATO After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 some fear that the three countries (Lithuania Taking the Suwalki Gap would cut them off from their European NATO allies The region’s historic ethnic tensions The militarized environment created by the deployment of Russian land troops and the Russian Baltic Fleet in Kaliningrad is a strong deterrent to any attempt NATO might undertake to kick out Russia from the Baltic states and the Suwalki Gap I spent two weeks in the Suwalki Gap to get an early look at NATO’s response to the Russian deployment which some analysts believe is there to stay Join our newsletter to get exclusives on where our correspondents travel The Ukrainian Army has been sending young soldiers into combat without body armor or even helmets at times Enter the ‘ants’—pro-Ukraine Ukrainian volunteers who walk army surplus goods over the Polish border a Parisian newspaper first reported on Ilya Ivanov’s attempts to inseminate women with chimpanzee sperm The Institute he founded is still active in the forgotten land of Abkhazia The town of Barentsburg located high in the Arctic feels every bit like a Soviet town stuck in time All Around the World with the Most Travelled Indian my travels in most cases lead me to the natural world of deserts ice caps and forests but sometimes they take me to the human world as well I clearly love Geography more than History and it shows in my travel choices But I did a recent visit to the Russian border town and the Baltic & Scandinavian countries all of which had a very geopolitical undertone and very little to do with the natural world So this is my third and final piece from this recent travel of mine post which it will be back to first hand stories from the natural world I feel the perfect way to start the feature would be to quote a quote of Ruskin Bond – “when all the wars are over I was really moved by this line when I read it the first time and it has remained with me since Let me also say that I don’t profess to have much (or any) knowledge of military vehicles and equipment since I am but an ordinary traveller and just a student of the world I witness But what I witnessed in this trip were military vehicles and weapons at armed forces expositions open air tank displays and military convoys on the roads particularly in Lithuania This seemed like the obvious impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and perhaps a way to awaken some national pride I was in Lithuania and visited quite a few towns but there was another area that I decided to go to It is called the Suwalki Gap and is just a 65 kilometer or 40 mile stretch of land that links Lithuania with Poland But on the north of this gap lies Kaliningrad a military enclave of Russia (inside Europe) and to the south is Belarus a strong ally of Russia that shares a major border with Russia itself So NATO believes that if Russian Kaliningrad and ‘Russian Belarus’ take over this narrow corridor then they essentially cut off the three Baltic brothers (Estonia Latvia and Lithuania) from the rest of NATO territories in Europe to the north of the Baltic nations is the Baltic Sea and to the East is ‘big brother’ Russia looming down on them So they and NATO feel that this could be a real scenario playing out sometime in the not-so-faraway future NATO has stationed soldiers and vehicles in this area particularly in places such as Druskininkai NATO conducted a military preparedness exercise at the Suwalki Gap Over 20,000 NATO troops participated in it as part of their larger plan to defend the Suwalki Gap (the plan itself is called the ‘Orsha Plan’) I also visited a nearby town called Kaunas close to the mouth of this Suwalki corridor There I got access to a military exposition and saw some incredible military machinery which I hope will never be used on the battlefield When it is there to be appreciated for its beauty as an automobile But when it turns into a killing machine then all the beauty of the beast goes away These days you might be hearing the news about the ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast within the Russian territory This is the first Ukrainian offensive inside Russian soil and has raised all sorts of alarm bells across Europe  With Russia’s warning to NATO post this offensive the western military alliance will now also deploy 5,000 troops in Mikkeli I was near this area too during my stay in Finland and it may well be a future frontline of a war that no sane man wants to see in Kaunas I met a fantastic Finnish Army officer and he gave me a great overview of all the machinery that was at the exposition It was possibly one of my top travel days during this visit The reason why this became an even more special experience is because I was the only one there in the middle of all this metal I had almost forgotten about the cobbled streets of Vilnius (Lithuanian capital) or Riga (Latvia’s capital) or any other place in between It is such experiences that are unexpected unanticipated and somewhat uncontrolled that add true value to travel This act of movement has to also move you to make it truly meaningful In my conversations with Matas I learned about his apprehensions of an invasion and how he plans to defend the land for his family His feelings came out quite strongly on this topic and I Political topics have no end and no justification My stay in Latvia was very short but in Estonia I visited quite a few places There I came across something very interesting called ‘the SAS’ Basically it’s what the citizen-soldiers are called in Estonia because they undergo voluntary military training during the weekends when they are not at work There I went further north-east towards the Russian border since I had heard of a military buildup in the area and wanted to see what was going on first hand However here the real access was difficult and what I had to settle for was seeing a few old tanks and armoured vehicles on display inside a forested areas with tall boreal trees in Parola As you can imagine it is quite a sight to see war vehicles in the setting of tall trees but in reality all of them were on display for military enthusiasts and the real military training action was elsewhere But still it wasn’t bad as I ended up with some excellent photographs of combat vehicles including the popular Panther and T-55 tanks During this strange trip I also ended up seeing and touching actual equipment used in the current Russia-Ukraine War including tanks and various guns such as U.S.A’s anti-tank missile launcher  While I am not much for such kind of dark tourism I did like the part that this was current world news and I was there In that sense I suppose I do like to be seen as a reporter not just the regular world traveller and writer This peripheral view away from the actual war zone gave some perspective and insight into the mood of a continent that had maintained peace for 76 years May this part of the planet find its peace again and may we all find ours too A post marks the beginning of Polish territory on its border with Lithuania The nearly 50-mile stretch of Polish-Lithuanian border sandwiched between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus is known as the Suwalki Gap and its NATO allies are looking for new ways to deter Russian aggression against the Baltic states But policymakers and defense planners have yet to agree on Moscow's intentions in the region... Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is preparing for battle “Don’t believe anyone that we want to fight telling European media that we must now accept we live in “the pre-war era” that his country faces its most serious security threat since the Second World War they are by now becoming clichéd and prompt little public reaction A few weeks earlier, though, the Chief of Staff of the Czech Army sparked a national debate by raising the possibility of reintroducing military service In another example of war being treated as inevitable whether compulsory or voluntary,” will need to be considered by the Czech government The normalisation of such fatalist war rhetoric from all quarters — implying that conflict between Nato and Russia is not just possible but likely — should be taken seriously It matters little whether Western leaders prophesying conflict are motivated by Churchillian aspirations or pettier political concerns A nihilistic attitude to the opposition of East and West — and a seeming indifference to exploring ways to take the world off this collision course — is already having destructive diplomatic consequences In March, the Czech government froze meetings with the new Slovakian administration led by “pro-Russian” Prime Minister Robert Fico, after Slovakia’s Foreign Minister met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov at a conference in Turkey. “We do not consider it appropriate,” explained Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala “to hold intergovernmental consultations with the government of the Slovak Republic in the coming weeks or months It is impossible to hide that there are significant differences of opinion on key foreign policy topics.” Such a reaction to “significant differences of opinion” among allies — throwing one’s toys out of the pram and refusing to engage — is indicative of a political climate that’s dangerously hostile to negotiation or compromise Replacing typical diplomatic aims with a resigned acceptance of coming conflict makes impossible the kinds of talks that could prevent such a conflagration from happening If both West and East continue to turn their backs on diplomacy and debate Tusk’s words about living in a “pre-war” period may turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy William Nattrass is a British journalist based in Prague and news editor of Expats.cz Richard Milne and Urtė Alksninytė in Sangrūda Simply sign up to the Geopolitics myFT Digest -- delivered directly to your inbox It may be regularly described as one of the most dangerous places on earth but anybody expecting to find panic in the sparsely populated villages on the Lithuanian-Polish border would be disappointed Known as the Suwałki Gap, the 100km border between the two Nato countries is bookended by Kaliningrad, the Russian semi-exclave, and Belarus, the close military ally of Moscow, at either end. If forces from those territories — just 65km apart as the crow flies — were to control this border then the Baltic states would be cut off from the rest of Europe and Nato But head down a dirt road on the Lithuanian side of the border to the small village of Sangrūda and life carries on pretty much as normal for residents such as Raimonda Skeberdienė who runs a small flower farm with her husband “We feel safe — they don’t scare us,” the 33-year-old mother of two says “We can’t panic too much when we’re with our children because we don’t even have the financial means to do it.” Sangrūda resident Raimonda Skeberdienė: ‘We feel safe  We have not considered moving’ © Tadas KazakeviciusHer 74-year-old neighbour lives a few hundred metres down the road on a farm where her parents built the barn during the second world war “The fact that planes fly keeps us safe,” she says “There are about six of them flying over the meadow here Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, and its control over Belarus, has placed an intense focus on the Suwałki Gap The Lithuanian-Polish border was given this nickname intentionally to echo the Fulda Gap the part of West Germany seen as the most vulnerable to a potential Soviet invasion and therefore the most crucial place in the cold war; Suwałki is the nearest town on the Polish side many — including locals in the Suwałki Gap — wondered if the Baltics might be the next target for Russia I thought that they were coming here: we would be the first ones,” says Petronė Ministers in Vilnius are clear on the border’s significance “It is seen as one of the most vulnerable places of Nato territory,” says Gabrielius Landsbergis Prime minister Ingrida Šimonytė adds: “Of course This is something we pay close attention to It’s important not to lose this corridor in a situation of military aggression.” there are also hopes that the strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap may be decreasing due to the actions of Nato and the nearby railway that connects Poland and Lithuania © Tadas KazakeviciusThe longtime plan to defend the Baltics was according to multiple officials in the region to assume that Russia would take over Estonia Latvia and Lithuania quickly but then repel its invasions by massive force from Nato troops based in Germany and Poland the reality of war in Ukraine — where atrocities against civilians have been found in liberated towns such as Bucha and Kherson — has changed the calculation Nato allies are beefing up their presence in the Baltic countries Germany is providing more troops in Lithuania The new plan is to defend the Baltics aggressively from day one “Forward defence means that we need as many forces as we can sustain close to our defence perimeter so that we don’t need to move as many troops in times of crisis,” says Vaidotas Urbelis policy director at the ministry of defence “There would also be pre-positioning of ammunition and equipment the Suwałki Gap is less critical because you can sustain yourself for days or weeks.” A further big change this year came through the applications of Finland and Sweden to join Nato this would mean the Baltic Sea would become a “Nato lake” and give the additional option of reinforcing the region by boat and not just through the Suwałki Gap “It changes the security situation entirely,” says Margarita Šešelgytė director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University “There would be two ways into Baltic states in the future and her aunt on a small farm in the Suwałki Gap © Tadas KazakeviciusBack at the Suwałki Gap itself mother and aunt to a small farm with six cows “I’m not afraid to come back here,” she says Further down the road is the Kalvarija border checkpoint — the main crossing between Poland and Lithuania Military experts worry that the single-lane crossing could become congested if thousands of troops and large amounts of equipment would need to be transported quickly Saulius Motukas says his border duties keep him too busy to worry it happens,’ he says © Tadas KazakeviciusBut Saulius Motukas a senior specialist at the state border guard service says he has no time to think about the Suwałki Gap being potentially the most dangerous place on earth With dozens of lorries streaming across the border every few minutes